At the risk of triggering a new sunspot by talking about it, I’ll cautiously mention that by GMT time midnight tomorrow, August 10th, we will possibly have a 30 day stretch of no sunspots at a time when cycle 24 has been forecast by many to be well underway. Here is the most recent (and auto updating) SOHO MDI image of the sun:
Spotless Days Count
(updated data from Spaceweather.com)
Current Stretch: 29 days
2009 total: 171 days (78%)
Since 2004: 682 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days
Here is the latest data from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center:
:Product: Daily Solar Data DSD.txt :Issued: 0225 UT 09 Aug 2009 # # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Please send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov # # Last 30 Days Daily Solar Data # # Sunspot Stanford GOES10 # Radio SESC Area Solar X-Ray ------ Flares ------ # Flux Sunspot 10E-6 New Mean Bkgd X-Ray Optical # Date 10.7cm Number Hemis. Regions Field Flux C M X S 1 2 3 #--------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 07 10 68 13 60 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 11 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 12 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 13 67 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 14 67 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 15 67 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 16 67 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 17 66 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 18 67 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 19 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 20 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 21 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 22 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 23 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 24 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 25 69 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 26 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 27 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 28 69 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 29 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 30 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 07 31 69 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 08 01 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 08 02 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 08 03 67 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 08 04 66 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 08 05 66 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 08 06 67 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 08 07 68 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 08 08 67 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
While it is possible that we’ll see a 30 day stretch of days with no sunspots, we have yet to complete a calendar month without a sunspot.
A year ago in August 2008, we initially had completed a sunspotless calendar month. But, as fate would have it, that distinction was snatched away at the very last moment by the folks in Belgium at SIDC based on one sketch of a plage cum sunspeck from Catainia observatory in Italy.
As Carly Simon once fabulously sung:
I know nothing stays the same
But if youre willing to play the game
Its coming around again
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Now ya done gone did it….. There’ll be a sunspot within th’ hour now;-)
STEREO isn’t showing anything over the horizon either.
This is reminds me of a Red Dwarf episode:
Lister: what’s this?
Kryten: it’s a eghhhhhh…..
Lister: it’s an ORANGE!
LOL
If you don’t know Red Dwarf, please get the copies, brilliant sci-fi/satire !!
So what if Catania counts meaningless pores.
It doesn’t change the Sun’s state one bit.
The current state: All Stop: Run Silent, Run Deep.
For all intents & purposes, we had a 60+ day run in 2008 and another in early 2009.
The real question is how long will this run really last (ignore the stupid pore games)?
60 days is 30 days away for a 3-peat.
How’s about 90 days to catch attention?
However, according to the (provisional) sunspot numbers issued by the SIDC (Belgium), July 23 and July 30 were not spotless. For these two days, a sunspot number of 8 is given.
Having a spotless streak that fits within a calender month is just as significant as having 5 thursdays in row without a sunspots, well except for the fact that a calender month is a rather long period to observe no spots on the sun.
It may be interesting for making som eay catching headlines, but thats all.
What really matters is the absolute length and how long it is compared to other spotless periods.
The longest so far for this minimum is 31 days and it looks like the sun will set a new record on tuesday for this minimum. But who knows, sunspots never gives us a warning before they apear so there could be one within a few hours without us knowing about it right now.
See following page for some instersting sunspot statistics:
http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html#Period
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/sunspot.gif
bit different from the predictions back in 2006 !! So much for the predictibility of Sunspot cycle activity.
Looking more like a Dalton type Minimum every month
Cut out all these tiny tims and We would have about 850 spotless days since 2004, possibly even more.
The question is: Will the next sunspot triggered by the “Watts effect” be a cycle 23, 24 or 25??
Notice that the timestamp for the “auto-updating” image is Friday at 1554?
The auto updating hasn’t been too reliable over the last week.
Yep, lots of people excited over sunspot 1024, but the rot has set in again, the sun is back to being ultra quiet. All this when we were expecting a ramp up, perhaps something is happening different from what modern science has experienced…something like a grand minimum?
J.Hansford
You mean the Sun reads this Blog?
In the month of July just gone before
One group of sunspots, then, no more
But worry not for soon we’ll see
The Watts Effect bring two or three
Or four or five or even more
to lift the cycle off the floor
And bring to life the flagging Ap
Don’t believe me? Just wait and see.
Thought I saw a sunspeck but I managed to wipe it off the screen with my finger.
I guess the cycle 23 one, it was very very tiny.. was too small to count?
But now youve gone and done it.. the Watts effect will kick in soon, give me somethin to watch besides that hole goin round and round:)
still, following the events of an object with a presumed lifespan of 12 billion years day by day is a bit bizarre. We cannot but be completely lost in the noise at that scale.
It’s like watching tv with a microscope.
“Jean Meeus (00:49:59) :
However, according to the (provisional) sunspot numbers issued by the SIDC (Belgium), July 23 and July 30 were not spotless. For these two days, a sunspot number of 8 is given.”
Desperate times call for desperate measures…
Pouring over data,day after day, makes me feel like a sponge dripping under a faucet… Can you drip faster !!! Please ? Really !? There is a ‘robust’ amount of info and data on S.C. behavior, but only for a brief period of time. How unfortunate. Evaluating data and drawing conclusions has become a national past-time. While mainstream media regurgitates diluted and misleading evidence, people can inform themselves, if they investigate. And they are. Hopefully , historians write a passage of this time and look favorable upon us. Us being a card carrying , flag waving, torch bearing member of Helio-Terrestrial Scalable-Terrans. Sign up now before you get left off the ‘snitch’ list ! – David Alan –
Take a look at the Ap forecast http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/gifs/forecast.html One 9 and 0ne 7 the rest are lower. Not good.
Jean Meeus (00:49:59) :
However, according to the (provisional) sunspot numbers issued by the SIDC (Belgium), July 23 and July 30 were not spotless. For these two days, a sunspot number of 8 is given
Is SIDC the official counters of Sunspots? Do they make the final determination that becomes the official number?
The wait continues!
This video was posted 11 months ago.
According to Spaceweather.com we are a meere 4 spotless days away from an even 200 days over typical minimum.
Since 2004: 681 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days
http://www.spaceweather.com/
Mr. Alex (03:17:59) :
“Jean Meeus (00:49:59) :
However, according to the (provisional) sunspot numbers issued by the SIDC (Belgium), July 23 and July 30 were not spotless. For these two days, a sunspot number of 8 is given.”
Desperate times call for desperate measures…
Too bad these long streaches wont show up on the soelamons report then since he uses the SIDC numbers
Yeah, knock on wood.
“Yes, corporal, they can’t possibly hit us here, we’re out of ra…”
“My wife is standing right behind me, isn’t she?”
Anthony has some big fans. In this case, with 98% of the mass of the Solar System, the biggest fan.