While NOAA is lowering forecasts, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) from FSU COAPS is also quite low. Ryan Maue’s Tropical web page at Florida State University has this graph that shows accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) :
Sorted monthly data: Text File Note where 2009 is in the scheme of things. More here.
NOAA Lowers Hurricane Season Outlook, Cautions Public Not to Let Down Guard
August 6, 2009
Animation of El Niño in Pacific.
El Niño animation (Credit: NOAA)
According to its August Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA now expects a near- to below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, as the calming effects of El Niño continue to develop. But scientists say the season’s quiet start does not guarantee quiet times ahead. The season, which began June 1, is entering its historical peak period of August through October, when most storms form.
“While this hurricane season has gotten off to quiet start, it’s critical that the American people are prepared in case a hurricane strikes,” said Commerce Secretary Gary Locke.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, now predicts a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 40 percent probability of a below-normal season, and a 10 percent probability of an above-normal season. Forecasters say there is a 70 percent chance of seven to 11 named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes, including one to two major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5).
The main change from the May outlook is an increased probability of a below-normal season, and an expectation of fewer named storms and hurricanes. The May outlook called for nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes. During an average season, there are 11 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph, of which six become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater and two of those become major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher.
In recent weeks, forecasts for the return of El Niño – warmer than normal waters along the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean – have come to fruition.
“El Niño continues to develop and is already affecting upper-level atmospheric pressure and winds across the global tropics,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “El Niño produces stronger upper-level westerly winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean, which help to reduce hurricane activity by blowing away the tops of growing thunderstorm clouds that would normally lead to tropical storms.”
“El Niño may mean fewer storms compared to recent seasons, but it doesn’t mean you can let your guard down,” said Jack Hayes, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “History shows that hurricanes can strike during an El Niño.” Some examples include Betsy in 1965, Camille in 1969, Bob in 1991, Danny in 1997 and Lili in 2002.
Even though El Niño tends to decrease the number of storms, other climate factors may help to create some storms. As predicted in May, conditions associated with the high-activity era that began in 1995 are in place, and include enhanced rainfall over west Africa and warmer tropical Atlantic Ocean water, which favor storm development.
The calm start to this hurricane season is not a reliable indicator of the overall activity for the entire season. The 1992 Atlantic hurricane season, for example, had a below-normal number of named storms and hurricanes. The first storm did not form until late August, when Hurricane Andrew hit southern Florida as a destructive Category 5 storm.
Hurricane Andrew slams into South Florida in August 1992 during a hurricane season that began late.
High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
“These outlooks are extremely valuable when determining cycles and trends for the season, however they don’t tell us when the next storm will occur or where it may strike,” said FEMA administrator Craig Fugate. “It only takes one storm to put a community at risk. That is why we need to take action and prepare ourselves and our families before the next storm hits, including developing a family disaster plan. By taking a few simple steps now we can help ensure that we are better prepared and that our first responders are able to focus on our most vulnerable citizens.”
Predicting where and when a storm may hit land depends on the weather conditions in place at the time the storm approaches. Therefore NOAA’s seasonal outlook, which spans multiple months, does not include landfall projections. But once a storm appears to be forming, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center will issue track and intensity forecasts.
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.
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And right on queue, tropical wave 99L has just left the coast of Africa and is expected to develop into this year’s first named Atlantic storm.
Just when Obama could have used a good hurricane to distract from healthcare debate. Nature just doesn’t seem to cooperate.
Almost half-way through the huricane season (that they said would be well above normal) without a single named storm (Heck, without a single tropical depression that I have heard about), NOAA goes boldly out on the limb to dare say that it might be “a near- to below-normal Atlantic hurricane season”.
Ya’ think?
Stand back and admire this daring prediction!
Yeah, but it IS unusual to start this late since the AMO shift in 1995-Lubos checked this:
http://motls.blogspot.com/2009/08/silence-of-hurricanes.html
* 2009: after August 9th (or never)
* 2008: May 31
* 2007: May 9
* 2006: June 10
* 2005: June 8
* 2004: July 31
* 2003: April 20
* 2002: July 9
* 2001: June 4
* 2000: August 3
* 1999: June 11
* 1998: July 26
* 1997: June 30
* 1996: June 19
* 1995: June 2
Another indication of the role of AMO? Seems like it to me!
Once again I will quote from my home insurance policy:
“Two unprecedented back-to-back hurricane seasons, with eight hurricanes and four tropical storms, have caused tens of billions of dollars in insured damages. PREDICTIONS OF MORE CATASTROPHIC HURRICANES MAKING LANDFALL IN THE U.S. HAVE TRIGGERED SIGNIFICANT INCREASES TO INSURANCE PREMIUMS TO COVER POTENTIAL FUTURE LOSSES” (emphasis mine)
Thanks a lot Hansen et al. Your hardheadness in clinging to your climate religion costs real people real money. Perhaps I could put a PayPal button over at Real Climate so they can donate to my insurance bill, now that would be putting your money where your mouth is.
I note that China and Taiwan are taking a hammering today.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8191951.stm
Morakot looks to be a really nasty SOB.
“NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.”
– just a bit of hyperbole there.
And what happens if the predictions don’t fit the facts? Maybe a little ex post facto adjustment?
It will be what it will be. But I don’t know about this talk of hurricane season starting late, as if that’s unusual. I remember back in the day when that ‘old guy’, I forgot his name, was TWC hurricane expert. Every June he’d show up and I’d be glad to see the familiar old face and a bit raunchy sense of humor. Then I’d forget about hurricanes until September.
And sure enough, September would come along and so would the hurricanes.
::shrug::
That is so funny. Hansen’s coolaid drinkers swear that global warming causes more hurricanes. You would think that they would get their stories straight.
By the way, that NOAA statement at the end of their report is a vision statement. It is how they would like to be thought as. It is what they would like to be. And in truth, I see them as being far more likely to report natural variability as the cause of the day then most other climate involved entities.
Andrew, Carla, Camille, Betsy, Bob, Danny…
Looks like the earlier named storms can be doozies ;o)
I suppose there’s a grant waiting for someone willing to prove a high correlation between storm intensity and the star letter of the alphabet for the storm name. Sillier studies than that have been funded.
How about starting the names from Z to A on alternate years?
I’ve been disappointed with the depth of the NOAA commentary behind their forecasts, but I like the Colorado State’s papers. While heavy on the science and statistics they’re still readable.
See http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/ . Their most recent update was on Aug 4.
Invest 99L, if it develops will (according to all the models) likely be short lived and peak at under hurricane strength
A graph of El Nino periods against ACE would be interesting. Is it possible/
It has been very wet in central Florida this summer. The lakes are back full and we do not need a rain maker. It has been nice this season not to have any storms headed our way.
The weather guys on TV have been rather subdued. I almost feel sorry for them, and I think a couple have had to go into rehab.
🙂
Oh. So there is a ‘normal’ situation where there might be only one or two (or even no) hurricanes in June or July. This is weather. But sometimes there are more than one or two hurricanes in June and July. This could still be weather, but we at NOAA prefer to attribute it to climate change. Mind you we acknowledge that it gets confusing when it’s weather one year, climate change the next , weather the following two years, then climate change, then…..
Eyeball only and far too short a time frame for any accuracy but that bar graph seems to show an approximate 11 year long cycle with the ACE minimums just following the solar minimum.
Coincidence?
I’d be worried if I was living anywhere near the Hurricane belt. If NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment as well as the way that the UK Met. Office understands and predicts the British Summer then pile those levees high Folks!
Tom in Florida ,
I feel your pain .
P Walker on the coast of Georgia
Average so-so hurricane season?
Not to worry. There’s always the Arctic sea ice melt they can rush to cover. Latest AP/NSIDC story spins the melt as possibly matching the 2007 melt.
Spare me the spin — I’ll wait and see what it looks like in three weeks or so.
In the meantime, if that Cape Verde disturbance fires up in a couple days it’ll give media types something to hype, even if it is too far out to topple any hotels into the ocean.
Having attended a presentation yesterday, this situation we find ourselves in is likely to be changing. Our newly forming el nino condition historically favors bid bad late season storms along with late starts for the named storms. While there’s no guarantees when tossing dice, we can expect a real possibility that we may have a cat 4 or cat 5 slamming in – perhaps to the western gulf area – sometime in the next couple of months. It seems we are still in the rising area of the longer term hurricane cycles so with history as a guide – B.O. may still get the last laugh within the next couple of months. And I might get blown all the way to Kansas.
We need to remember something. Just because more storms are named does not mean that season is more active. NOAA now names a storm even if it meets the minimum tropical storm/subtropical storm requirements just for 1 hour. In times past, such storms would not have been named. I truly believe NOAA exploits this to scare people. “Oh, we had 15 named storms. It is an active year. Never mind a few years ago some of these storms would not even be named. No, it is an active year and the number of storms is increasing! Now pay up and give up your rights!”
The true metric in how active a year is by the number of hurricanes and by the ACE. Hurricanes already have a name and thus we do not rush names out just to scare people with hurricanes. And ACE is objective because it does not require a storm to be named.
But have fun getting the media to disassociate activity with the number of storm names.
As far as the Cape Verde disturbance. There is a very good chance it will be nothing but a tropical depression. It is going to creep north into dry air and wind sheer. Whatever the case, it will have a short life, meaningless life. Experience has told me that the path this storm is predicted to take usually end up curving out to sea.
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_99.gif
As well they might lower thier hurricance forecast, given that there haven’t so far been any.; in spite of worse than previously thought global warming /sarc
” cba (15:18:47) : ”
“we can expect a real possibility that we may have a cat 4 or cat 5 slamming in – perhaps to the western gulf area – sometime in the next couple of months.”
Non-sequitur. There is ALWAYS a “real possibility” of a cat 4 or cat 4 (perhaps in the Western gulf area) in August/September. That statement pretty much means nothing. Sort of like the recent “sea level rise” warning that basically said that the rate of sea levels will either drop, stay the same, or rise. Uhm, yep!
There is no higher possibility this year than any other year. Statements like that of cba above are the sort of meaningless blather that the news media loves to spout off with. It sounds almost ominous … until you think about it a minute.
QUoting:
“I remember back in the day when that ‘old guy’, I forgot his name, was TWC hurricane expert. Every June he’d show up and I’d be glad to see the familiar old face and a bit raunchy sense of humor. ”
Might be this guy, who I would trust to the end about hurricanes:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neil_Frank
@ROM (14:47:33) :
It’s not even close to a coincidence. Tropical cyclones are literally heat engines that actively transport energy from the tropics towards the poles.