I got a tip by email from JohnA who runs solarscience.auditblogs.com about this NASA press release. John’s skeptical about it. He makes some good points in this post here.
What I most agree with JohnA’s post is about sunspots. While we’ve seen some small rumblings that the solar dynamo might be on the upswing, such as watching Leif’s plot of the 10.7 CM solar radio flux, there just doesn’t appear to be much change in character of the sunspots during the last year. And the magnetic field strength just doesn’t seem to be ramping up much.
He writes:
“Let’s check out the window”
On Solarcycle24.com they’ve got yet another sun speck recorded yesterday, that by today had disappeared. Exactly the same behaviour we’ve been having for 12 months with no end in sight.
I agree with JohnA, it’s still a bit slow out there. Leif is at the conference in Boulder where NASA made this announcement below, so perhaps he’ll fill us in on the details.
Here is the NASA story:
Mystery of the Missing Sunspots, Solved?
June 17, 2009: The sun is in the pits of a century-class solar minimum, and sunspots have been puzzlingly scarce for more than two years. Now, for the first time, solar physicists might understand why.
At an American Astronomical Society press conference today in Boulder, Colorado, researchers announced that a jet stream deep inside the sun is migrating slower than usual through the star’s interior, giving rise to the current lack of sunspots.
Rachel Howe and Frank Hill of the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson, Arizona, used a technique called helioseismology to detect and track the jet stream down to depths of 7,000 km below the surface of the sun. The sun generates new jet streams near its poles every 11 years, they explained to a room full of reporters and fellow scientists. The streams migrate slowly from the poles to the equator and when a jet stream reaches the critical latitude of 22 degrees, new-cycle sunspots begin to appear.
Above: A helioseismic map of the solar interior. Tilted red-yellow bands trace solar jet streams. Black contours denote sunspot activity. When the jet streams reach a critical latitude around 22 degrees, sunspot activity intensifies. [larger image] [more graphics]
Howe and Hill found that the stream associated with the next solar cycle has moved sluggishly, taking three years to cover a 10 degree range in latitude compared to only two years for the previous solar cycle.
The jet stream is now, finally, reaching the critical latitude, heralding a return of solar activity in the months and years ahead.
“It is exciting to see”, says Hill, “that just as this sluggish stream reaches the usual active latitude of 22 degrees, a year late, we finally begin to see new groups of sunspots emerging.”
he current solar minimum has been so long and deep, it prompted some scientists to speculate that the sun might enter a long period with no sunspot activity at all, akin to the Maunder Minimum of the 17th century. This new result dispells those concerns. The sun’s internal magnetic dynamo is still operating, and the sunspot cycle is not “broken.”
Because it flows beneath the surface of the sun, the jet stream is not directly visible. Hill and Howe tracked its hidden motions via helioseismology. Shifting masses inside the sun send pressure waves rippling through the stellar interior. So-called “p modes” (p for pressure) bounce around the interior and cause the sun to ring like an enormous bell. By studying the vibrations of the sun’s surface, it is possible to figure out what is happening inside. Similar techniques are used by geologists to map the interior of our planet.
In this case, researchers combined data from GONG and SOHO. GONG, short for “Global Oscillation Network Group,” is an NSO-led network of telescopes that measures solar vibrations from various locations around Earth. SOHO, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, makes similar measurements from Earth orbit.
“This is an important discovery,” says Dean Pesnell of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. “It shows how flows inside the sun are tied to the creation of sunspots and how jet streams can affect the timing of the solar cycle.”
There is, however, much more to learn.
“We still don’t understand exactly how jet streams trigger sunspot production,” says Pesnell. “Nor do we fully understand how the jet streams themselves are generated.”
To solve these mysteries, and others, NASA plans to launch the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) later this year. SDO is equipped with sophisticated helioseismology sensors that will allow it to probe the solar interior better than ever before.
Right: An artist’s concept of the Solar Dynamics Observatory. [more]
“The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on SDO will improve our understanding of these jet streams and other internal flows by providing full disk images at ever-increasing depths in the sun,” says Pesnell.
Continued tracking and study of solar jet streams could help researchers do something unprecedented–accurately predict the unfolding of future solar cycles. Stay tuned for that!
The most terrifying words in all languages: “We don’t understand”.
How many of these saccharine news releases about the latest guess-posing-as-for-sure knowledge about why the Sun is doing what it does will NASA give us?
I can think of probably at least two more in jsut this cycle, not including that notably embarassing one that was re-posted here at WUWT not too long ago.
There is a condescension in the tone of this press release that is annoying.
I buy Livingston and Penn and their assessment. I seems the pores appear then disappear. The only ramp up so far is the frequency of the pores. Seems like a new guess supported by new observations without a sound view of the history. Time will tell.
This press release is just NASA PR-machine hype. We have not ‘solved’ the problem. Even if we assume that the ‘jetstream’ has anything to do with the generation of spots [and I personally think it is the other way around] we have just moved the problem [rather than solving it] because now the question is “why was it slower?” Furthermore the ‘critical 22 degrees’ is not based on anything other than having happened once before.
What we have is a well-orchestrated CYA attempt: our [i.e. NASA-supported] models [predicting a super-cycle] were thwarted by this strange delay of the oscillation, but are basically correct [I think not].
It will be interesting to see how this new NASA prediction looks in a couple years. OT: I have been following the spotless-days count at spaceweather.com. It has been disconcerting to see their count simply drop in number on occasion without comment. They apparently are retroactively acknowledging sunspots that they didn’t observe on the days when they supposedly occurred. Is their ability to accurately observe sunspots intermittent? I am doubtful that sunspots not recognized in real time by spaceweather.com would have been counted in 1913.
That’s the caveat in the report.
“We still don’t understand exactly how jet streams trigger sunspot production,” says Pesnell. “Nor do we fully understand how the jet streams themselves are generated.”
What might not happen is the magic threshold of 22 degrees sets off the normally expected sunspot activity given the shallow angle of entry.
Might not be steep enough & bounce off or refract even shallower.
Who knows what with the crazy way things have progressed.
We certainly are getting more Tiny Tims, but enjoying it less.
Wisely, they left the back door unlocked.
Just in case.
Here’s a thought: Sunspot Cruises. You jump in a special Jumbo jet and fly off to where the Sun is shining to get a rare glimpse of a spot.
Nah.
By that logic, they should give me the Lottery Jackpot, because my numbers were “basically correct” as well.
I’m amazed this even got released, it doesn’t really say anything.
It’s great to see that some folks don’t need much to get excited about things. I’ve tried looking for some of those “spots” this year using a 10cm (4 inch) f/9 Newtonian, similar to my first ‘scope that I bought 35 years ago. Space Weather would announce a new spot so, first chance that I could get it was out with the ‘scope, but alas no success!
My first sunspot drawings that I did back in the middle of ’75, when there were large groups on the sun even that close to minimum, show tiny specks in amongst those groups. Admittedly if there are no large spots to draw your attention to them then one could easily miss these micro-spots. However even with the heads-up announcements I’ll be blowed if I can find them.
To me these people have missed the boat somewhat. It doesn’t matter that the sluggish jet stream has finally arrived at the 22nd parallel. What really seems to matter is that the jet stream IS sluggish, just like so many other solar indicators at present.
Talk about clutching at straws! If the sun is not a major player in all of this, why are the mainstream solar physicists so desperate for the sun to crank up to the levels of the most recent cycles? You would actually think that more people would be happier at the prospect of a quieter sun. Less problems for those operating in the space environment for a starter.
On a personal note my biggest regret about this coming quiet period, and I’m not just talking about the current minimum, will be the lack of aurorae at my latitude. The young, up and coming astronomers around here have grown up with my pictures of great aurorae taken from my mid-latitude home in New Zealand during the peaks of the last few cycles. Unfortunately they will have to move to the Aurora Capital of New Zealand, Invercargill (7 degrees south of here) to get any sort of view in the future. I am just not game enough to guess how long they may have to wait though.
Wow. Even Leif thinks its a dubious correlation at best.
I have two points to make about predictions about the current Solar Cycle:
1. Predictions about the next solar cycle have been persistently wrong.
2. Solar physicists are ignoring the wrong predictions without explanation rather than dealing with their failures.
It ain’t science, folks. Its guessing. One day someone will get lucky and lead an entire science astray.
A more general observation is that predicting the future is exactly what it used to be – very, very difficult to pull off unless you can induce amnesia in your audience or appeal to their venality or both.
I suppose that could be the theme of the blog. It didn’t start off that way, but I’m depressed that solar physicists don’t appear to be addressing the failures of their models.
Good to see this running here; just read it on Icecap and I must say that my first impulse is that I’m a bit skeptical. I’m getting the impresssion of relief being expressed – now that the jet streams have finally hit 22° latitude, sunspot activity will return to normal. I suspect we’re going to find that this may be a bit more complicated.
For starters, why the change in the jet stream? Will such a slower change in its movement still impact sun spot formation with weaker field strengths? In a couple years we may have a clearer picture. Then again, there could be even more puzzles.
Interesting times indeed.
Leif = His own man.
A rare breed today. Conservation required… perhaps demanded.
Today a new Cheshire Spot has posthumously elevated to the status of Sunspot #1021 (with one spot) joining #1020 (with two spots) which should also have never have been assigned a number. To validate the existence of little #1021 the Mt. Wilson staff had to raise early and record #1021 at sunrise 6:45PDT (13:45UT -7) shortly before our Cheshire faded from view forever.
2009/06/16 14:24 SOHO No spots.
2009/06/16 20:48 SOHO One faint spot.
2009/06/16 22:24 SOHO One small spot.
2009/06/17 00:00 SOHO One growing spot.
2009/06/17 06:24 SOHO One fading spot.
2009/06/17 13:45 MTWL One spot on Mt. Wilson tracing.
2009/06/17 14:24 SOHO One faint smug or pore.
2009/06/17 16:00 SOHO No spots.
SWPC did not make the birth/death announce until 22:00UT but #1021 continues to rack up a score of 11:
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2009
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low for the past 24 hours. New Region 1021 (S16W71) was numbered today.
Today we learned that the game is crocket and everything including sun pores are going to be counted. If the Sun resumes normal activity this period will be forgotten and we will be dismissed as cranks or worse. If normal activity doesn’t return by the end of this year, our masters in Washington will have gained another sever months to loot the national treasury and reduce the United States of America to a third world country which is their ultimate objective. For now all we can do is record these events and plan for the future.
Michael Ronayne
Nutley, NJ
Note the green bands surrounding the equator-trending ‘jet streams’. The green areas appear significantly narrower this cycle than last cycle. WUWT? Looks like the new streams can’t appear until the green returns to +-50 degrees, and it’s very blue now at that latitude on the plot.
Also, early in the previous cycle 23, we see pole-trending sunspots!
A very interesting plot, I hope they keep it updated. Is it available in real time?
Ian Cooper (21:33:13) :
The spots this year are generally tougher than last.
This one was gone before the Sun cleared the horizon for me.
The odds are stacked against us.
I wouldn’t give up, though, because if things get worse, it could be many years before you get another chance.
An impressive technique provided it measures what they say it measures. We are dealing with a flow several thousand miles under the surface of the sun.
It seems possible that jet stream doesn’t exist at all. Still, something is being measured.
My concern is the one cycle of data. Deciding that +- 22 degrees represents a more-or-less constant transition point seems ???? in the extreme.
Anyone know if they have several cycles of data?
I’m so so comforted by NASA’s new discovery of the Sun’s jet stream. Seems to me the whole revelation of the jet stream is somewhat meaningless. Why?
Because there have been studies and analysis of the solar system which point to its effect on the sun. I wouldn’t be surprised to learn there is another sun jet stream under this one. Again I say what does it matter. What really matters is what the sun does as these forces react with it to produce changes here on Earth.
I can make this analogy. NASA in all its scientific ability has dicovered that the “wheel turns around and around”. Yet they wander about not learning why the “wheel turns”. If they looked past their noses they could see some force(s) which pushes or pulls the wagon which then “turns the wheel”.
I can’t believe that NASA is still staring at the sun and trying to figure out what makes the sun turn without looking outward to understand the other forces that are at work which effect solar activity. Could they look outward to study the gravitational affects on the sun by the planets that then may help them understand this new sun jet stream?
I don’t buy the idea that because NASA has achieved so much in space exploration that somehow they are the know all of other stellar subject matter. I think these guys need to pull their heads out of the spokes of the wheel and look for whose feet are on the pedals.
The current solar minimum has been so long and deep, it prompted some scientists to speculate that the sun might enter a long period with no sunspot activity at all, akin to the Maunder Minimum of the 17th century. This new result dispells those concerns. The sun’s internal magnetic dynamo is still operating, and the sunspot cycle is not “broken.”
Okay, I need to voice a complaint here.
This paragraph should be deleted in its entirety. It’s nothing more than countering speculation with differing speculation masked as conclusive evidence. Even the title has a question mark in it (Solved?), and yet we read, “This new result dispells those concerns.” Then we read on to see phrases such as “We still don’t understand,” and “Nor do we fully understand….”
I’m almost inclined to send a complaint e-mail about this. Sorry, but from my point of view, this entire paragraph is not only unprofessional, it’s blatantly unethical.
If anyone else sees it differently, I’m willing to hear them out. I’m human & overreact on occasion. But this really bothered me.
If the SWPC numbers don’t do it for you:
Use the SONNE numbers. They are much more realistic about the numbering of Tiny Tims.
http://www.vds-sonne.de/gem/res/results.html
June Provisional:
day | GP# | ssn#
01. | 0.8 | 16
02. | 0.8 | 17
03. | 0.8 | 15
04. | 0.8 | 13
05. | 0.3 | 5
06. | 0.0 | 0
07. | 0.0 | 0
08. | 0.7 | 8
09. | 0.7 | 8
10. | 0.0 | 0
11. | 0.0 | 0
12. | 0.0 | 0
NASA trying to justify someones salary?
Another Scientific W.A.G.?
Why didn’t the team wait for more solid evidence of correlating sunspots to support their theory before releasing this?
I don’t see any signs of a start of new jetstreams at +-50 degrees. Assuming that the previous cycle is repeatable of course. If it’s repeatable, we should also be seeing numerous cycle 23 spots at the moment.
I guess they are feeling around in the dark hoping for some pattern or trend that shows that everything is normal and the Sun will eventually be active as usual. Reassurance for the masses. I, however, am quite content to be living through a period of unusual solar activity. Very interesting times indeed. Having said that, I will be buying a set of winter tires this autumn!
Perhaps NASA should hire soothsayers to read entrails….
When did it happen that ‘scientists’ stopped being people who asked questions and they became people who thought they had to create answers? Discovery has given way to determinacy.
Interesting piece, but explains exactly jack squat.
Discovery has given way to determinacy.
Yes, that is about it.
We have an administration that vows to listen to scientists, but the scientists have been replaced by soothsayers.
So many predictions down the memory hole.
They don’t have a clue.
I did a report on this very topic back in Feb….not much has changed but notice Dr. Howe is now using a similar graphic to one I sent her.
http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/2009/02/25/latest-solar-differential-rotation-information/
But interesting that Howe et al are leaning towards solar activity arising from activity at the Tachocline.