Inconvenient Eisdicken – “surprising results” from the Arctic

This is a news story from Germany outlining another Arctic ice measurement expedition. This one was conducted by flying the scientists across the north polar ice cap using the WWII era workhorse Douglas DC-3 airplane equipped with skis, and towing an airborne sounder twenty meters above the ice surface. It makes the Catlin Arctic Ice Survey look rather pointless, but then we knew that.  BTW “Eisdicken” translates to “ice thickness”. – Anthony

From Radio Bremen. Translated from German by Google web page translator:  Original | Translated


Surprising Results

At the North Pole ice sheet is thicker than expected

Das Forschungsflugzeug "Polar 5" in Bremerhaven [Quelle: AWI]

The “Polar 5″ in Bremerhaven

The research aircraft Polar 5 “ended today in Canada’s recent Arctic expedition.  During the flight, researchers have measured the current Eisstärke measured at the North Pole, and in areas that have never before been overflown. Result: The sea-ice in the surveyed areas is apparently thicker than the researchers had suspected.

Normally, ice is newly formed after two years, over two meters thick. “Here were Eisdicken up to four meters,” said a spokesman of Bremerhaven’s Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research. For scientists, this result is still in contradiction to the warming of the seawater.

Besides the Eisdicken was also the composition of the air are investigated. With the help of a laser, the researchers reviewed how polluted the atmosphere by emissions from industrialized countries. On the expedition, some 20 scientists from the U.S., Canada, Italy and Germany.


Here is the route map:

Flugroute Polar 5

click for a much larger image

See the press release announcing the expedition from Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research here. Note the lack of “live” biometrics.

click for larger image

click for larger image

But they do have a nifty aerial ice thickness probe, shown above.

An ice thickness probe, the so-called EM-Bird, which is usually dragged below a helicopter, is now operated for the first time by a fixed-wing aircraft. The EM-Bird is towed under the hull of the aircraft by means of a winch for take-off and landing. For the surveys, the probe is towed on an 80 m long rope twenty metres above the ice surface. More extensive areas can now be investigated due to the longer range of the aircraft in comparison to a helicopter.

UPDATE: more on the EM-Bird probe (h/t to Ron de Haan)

EM-Bird

EM-Bird

Electromagnetic (EM) induction sounding for ice thickness measurements is a technique that can achieve long profiles of some kilometer length. The accuracy and robustness of the EM method has been evaluated by comparing coincident drill-hole and EM measurements.  Read more (Poster, pdf, size: 156 kB)

Sure beats hauling a sledge and a broken home-built ice radar around doesn’t it?

h/t to “yddar” and Lubos Motl

About these ads

163 thoughts on “Inconvenient Eisdicken – “surprising results” from the Arctic

  1. If researchers have pre-conceived (suspected) results in mind, they are bound to be surprised by real-life results. Another typical example of coming up with the answers before doing the research. Does anyone know how they know that the seawater is warming?

  2. That is a BT-67 Basler conversion on a DC3.
    There are a couple of better pics here on Baslers site…

    http://www.baslerturbo.com/bt_67_worldwide.html

    Just scroll to the German plane. It has a couple of close ups
    of the towed array.

    Pretty cool birds to an aircraft nut like me…

    Chris

    REPLY: Ironically, the one they show from Kenn Borek Air may be the one going to rescue the hapless Catlin crew !! Borek is the one who pulled Penn Hadow out of the Arctic in 2003 on his last failed expedition, and is their flight service now.

    – Anthony

  3. more inconvenient facts

    I’m sure now the new theory will be “ice becomes stagnant with man-induced global warming which explains the unusual thickness”!

  4. Sure beats dragging a sled around on foot. Anybody from Caitlan paying attention? “Hello, Caitlan, they can do that with machines now!”

    Oh yeah, the ice is about twice as thick as expected.

    I’m curious about this:

    For scientists, this result is still in contradiction to the warming of the seawater.

    I never read any studies saying the Arctic ocean is warming. Did the reporter just inject this into the story, or is he paraphrasing some unknown source?

  5. Are there any results? The quote leaves me wondering – was this 4-meter ice widespread? Localized along a few pressure ridges?

    Sorry if I seem skeptical, but some good hard data, along with the reassuring quotes, would be welcome. The press release acknowledges the work of other research teams showing thinning ice. It seems if there were contradictory evidence they would march it out for the world to see, no?

    REPLY: if you can find their published results, feel free to post it. I have not found any yet. Only this news item. The expedition just ended, so I would expect it to be a couple of weeks. – Anthony

  6. As we recover from our third major rain event in about ten days here Houston, this post really brings a smile to my face and a nice chuckle, too.
    lol.
    AGW = fraud.

  7. tty:

    “I the use of an translation program suspects that the german sentence structure preserves.” Funny.

    I cdnuolt blveiee taht I cluod aulacity uesdnatnrd waht I was rdanieg. The phaonmneal pweor of the hmuan mnid! Aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it deosn’t mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny improatnt tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteer be in the rghit pclae. The rset can be a taotl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit a porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe. Amzanig, huh? Yaeh, and I awlyas thugoht slpeling was ipmorantt.

  8. Dear Pen

    Shame about the dastardly Jerries and their rotten old plane, what ?

    Just where the deuce was Biggles when you needed him most ?

    Reminds one of that pesky Norwegian chappie, Amundsister or something or other, and his dogs, eh ?

    Can’t dawdle, I am just going outside and I may be quite some time.

    Cheerio and good luck !

    Laurence

  9. Send the news to the Catlin team. Sure to send what’s left of their morale crashing through the ice. This expedition started off a month after Catlin hit the ice and is done already, after covering larger and more diverse areas than they could ever hope to hit. Pity they didn’t run a survey leg over the Catlin team just to rub it in.

    If “Eisdicken” translates to “ice thickness”, what does Catlin translate to? Disaster? Catastrophe? Misery?

  10. Unlike the Catlin crew, I actually saw the researchers’ biometric data in real-time along with a video feed from inside the DC-3. Their core temperatures were oscillating quite a bit. It appeared to me that their core temperatures increased as soon as they swallowed a mouthful of their hot pizza — and then their core temperatures decreased when they chugged some cold beer.

  11. “On the expedition, (there were) some 20 scientists from the U.S., Canada, Italy and Germany.”

    I guess the scientists from England were afraid to hurt Princs Charles’ feelings.

  12. Regardging that Catlin group, I wonder if the ground crew will withold that little bit of info until they return.

    In rock climbing:
    There are few things worse than clawing your way for a couple of hours up to the top, only to find some guy sitting there eating a candy bar.

    Usually followed by the comment:
    “Dude, what took you so long?”

  13. Reminds me of a discussion on here regarding the Lord of the Rings plot hole. The question as to why they just didn’t take the golden eagles to the volcano and drop the ring in.

  14. Ahh the DC-3. Great stuff! Fond memories. As a kid I crawled around inside of one of these at the air show every year. They are definitely the workhorse o’ the tundra.

  15. Meanwhile, at the other end of the world, the big headline is that a chunk of ice the size of New York City has broken off.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/new-yorksized-ice-shelf-collapses-off-antarctica-1675400.html

    Of course, readers of this blog know that Southern Hemisphere sea ice area is currently 1.2 million km^2 above the long term average for this time of year.

    That’s 10 times the land area of the entire state of New York.

  16. Smokey (15:09:54) :
    smae geos for tmpetrearues – to the tarnried eye alyaws httoer no mttaer the nmerbus!

  17. .

    For the aviation enthusiasts, this is actually a Super-Dak – A C47 freighter with PT-6 turbines instead of the standard PW-1830 piston radials.

    .

  18. Leon,
    “If “Eisdicken” translates to “ice thickness”, what does Catlin translate to? Disaster? Catastrophe? Misery?”

    From Wiki Encyclopedia:

    “A catlin was a long, double-bladed knife used for surgery, commonly amputations. It was common in the 17th-mid 19th century; thereafter its use declined in favor of mechanically-driven (and later, electrically driven) oscillating saws.”

    It sounds like a very old way of doing things…

  19. “”If “Eisdicken” translates to “ice thickness”, what does Catlin translate to? Disaster? Catastrophe? Misery?””

    No not quite Old Bean, in the best tradtion of British expeditions it takes its root from the Latin word, CATE, translation *pointless danger* and the Celtic word, LIN, translation *heroic venture* combined to indicate an *heroically dangerous but pointless venture*

    Been there and done that myself old chap !

    By the way what’s a Candy Bar ?

    Toodle Pip !

    Lawrence

  20. ak,

    they previously measured ice thickness between August and October 2008 from their Polarstern icebreaker. It seems that the ice was thinner that time and in those areas where they had access with the ice breaker (1.5 m ice thickness limit).

  21. Smokey and slowtofollow:
    “atlualcy” not “aulacity” and “tanerid” not “tarnried” please, misspelings canot be read in Coahs Csae, only in the normal case :)

  22. Leon Brozyna: ..”what does Catlin translate to?”
    Second Annual Arctic Cockup
    GaryB: The new theory probably just came out from under the ice in the Davis Strait. University of Washington researchers declared victory in measuring fresh water flows in the Eastern Arctic using a long duration underwater glider. As soon as the real ice data sinks in to the usual boneheads, the glider data should provide two or three years of distractive panic about currents in the North Atlantic. At least there will be something to talk about in Copenhagen. Article on the NSF website.

  23. The translation is surprisingly good.

    Today in Canada the research aircraft “Polar 5″ ended it’s most recent arctic expedition.
    Normally, newly formed ice is about 2 meters thick after 2 years.
    (“Have measured measured” is a mistake of the original text.)

    So it seems that thickness and volume are not a problem after all.

  24. Anthony, more about the EM-Bird here:

    http://www.awi.de/en/research/research_divisions/climate_science/sea_ice_physics/subjects/ice_thickness_measurements/em_bird/

    Electromagnetic (EM) induction sounding for ice thickness measurements is a technique that can achieve long profiles of some kilometer length. The accuracy and robustness of the EM method has been evaluated by comparing coincident drill-hole and EM measurements.

    A pdf file can be downloaded and could be published as an UPDATE.

  25. GaryB @14:50:50,

    Sorry, you’ got it wrong. We will hear how new models explain how global warming causes greater ice build-up in the Arctic due to greater humidity and ever more disasterous stuf…

  26. AH yes……A DC3…..But not really, You would have to call this one a “post modern” DC-3 with it’s turbine engines, plenty of power. Some how the tail looks larger, no doubt more directional control for the larger engines. I worked as a Flight Engineer/Steward/Mechanic/Flight nurse on an old style DC-3 with the Pratt&Whitney 1830 engines flown by a relief organization in the Amazon basin area. It was true job security, never ending work!

  27. Bremen is the smallest German state, consisting mainly of the towns of Bremen and Bremerhaven. It is governed by a red-green coalition.
    Radio Bremen ist the public Radio- (and TV-) station.
    That Radio Bremen publishes this news is astonishing.

  28. I think the real answer is that there is so much ice in the arctic that nobody can be sure what the eisdicken is.

  29. Mike Bryant (16:10:59) :

    Leon,
    “If “Eisdicken” translates to “ice thickness”, what does Catlin translate to? Disaster? Catastrophe? Misery?”

    From Wiki Encyclopedia:

    “A catlin was a long, double-bladed knife used for surgery, commonly amputations…”

    Ahhh – I see it now. Cutting off one’s nose to spite one’s face.

    I guess we’ll then see the Catlin team trying to hang on to the bitter end … and I do mean bitter.

    Sad.

  30. More links on the AWI Polar-5 Project:

    1. Aircraft Specifications: http://www.eufar.net/experiment/aircraft/specaircraft.php?num=71

    2. AWI Homepage: http://www.awi.de/en/home/

    3. Contact Information: http://www.awi.de/en/infrastructure/aircraft/research_aircraft/polar_5/

    4. Most interesting, the entire PAN ARCMIP project plan in a full color PDF, including the names of the scientists and their participating Universities:

    http://www.espo.nasa.gov/oib/docs/PANARCMIP-V2-20090219.pdf

    It would be a nice idea to invite the German Director to publish an article about the project at WUWT before NASA starts to fumble the measured data and leaves us with a canard!

  31. A.Syme (16:50:18) :

    AH yes……A DC3…..But not really, You would have to call this one a “post modern” DC-3 with it’s turbine engines, plenty of power. Some how the tail looks larger, no doubt more directional control for the larger engines.

    A.Syme,

    Have a look at this URL to see all the modifications.
    They take a C47 and rebuild it entirely.
    When they are finished it’s a new plane, ZERO hours.

    http://www.baslerturbo.com/bt_67_overview.html

  32. As I’ve been saying for a couple of decades now, it’s soot! The albedo effect, along with solar cycle influences. The heavy pollution detected on this mission supports the hypothesis. The arctic (along with the northern most countries) is the only place where the warming trend is significant and possibly due to human influnec. But GHG has nothing to do with it. In the rest of the world, most of the “warming” is obviously due to poor sensor placement, urban heat island effects, and mostly, religiously biased temperature “correction.” The data set is junk.

    Some studies have been done on albedo effect difference due to soot in limited regions of the arctic (see Hansen’s paper), but why aren’t some of the trillions being spent to extend the research and correct this problem?? It’s an easy correction, based on known technology.

    This year, China’s efforts to close factories for the Olympics, plus the recession’s effect on factory production, plus the extended solar minimum, add up to a good hypothesis on why the positive-feedback, runaway ice melt, which the IPCC and gang eagerly awaits, is not happening!

  33. “Shame about the dastardly Jerries and their rotten old plane, what ?”

    Actually, if you look at the plane, it’s Canadian registered, and based in Oshawa, Ontario (also, look at the route map waypoints…)

  34. Alexej Buergin (16:50:21) :

    “Bremen is the smallest German state, consisting mainly of the towns of Bremen and Bremerhaven. It is governed by a red-green coalition.
    Radio Bremen ist the public Radio- (and TV-) station.
    That Radio Bremen publishes this news is astonishing”.

    Alexej Buergin,

    I know that the cool aid green machine promoting the AGW scam did not forget to take a strong influence in German Politics.

    However, during a recent documentary about Antarctic, a broad cast by ZDF, the scientist in charge dismissed any link between CO2 driving our climate and said that AGW was a political hoax.

    He also said that he was doing his job as a scientist and he would not allow politics to interfere with his work or his reporting.

    Fortunately there are many scientists who share a similar opinion and their numbers are growing.

  35. When satellite data revealed the Arctic sea ice extent was increasing, contrary to NSIDC predictions, the agency shifted its “melting ice” argument from “extent” to “thickness”. They claimed, without a shred of hard evidence, that the ice was growing perilously thin and subject to rapid summer melting. Assuming this latest survey holds up and the Arctic sea ice is indeed relatively thick, I eagerly await for the next tortured defense of “melting ice”. Let me take a guess at the next “scientific finding” to be breathlessly announced by the New York Times:

    “Even though the ice extent is growing and the ice thickness is robust, scientists have discovered that the ice is dirty. Dirty ice absorbs radiant energy more readily than clean ice and therefore the entire polar ice cap will be melted within five years (make that 4-1/2 years – The Goracle’s prediction is already 6 months old).”

  36. Not entirely off topic this Icecap publication from Joseph D’Aleo:
    It’s too important.

    Apr 28, 2009
    Precious Few Months to Stop Disastrous Action

    By Joseph D’Aleo

    Two trains are racing down the tracks and if they get to where the government wants, the results to all Americans will be nothing short of catastrophic.

    Given the current global cooling now in its 8th year, declining ocean heat content at least in its 5th year, sea level rises which have slowed or stopped, record rising Antarctic ice extent and rapidly recovering arctic ice since the 2007 cycle minimum, a sun in a deep slumber, increasing evidence that CO2 is a harmless gas that is in reality a beneficial plant fertilizer, you would think that this proposed legislation and ruling would in a sane world, have no chance of passing, but there is a huge political and NGO machine and all too compliant media and carbon crusaders like Al Gore and James Hansen and literally many billions of dollars behind making carbon evil and subsidizing unwise energy and carbon control solutions.

    The Energy and Commerce committee under the leadership of the clueless Henry Waxman who teamed with the equally clueless Edward Markey on the Waxman-Markey Climate Bill is considering now that legislation. The bill took Al Gore, who testified in front of the committee last week, two transoceanic flights to read the bill, and Newt Gingriich could not get through the entire bill before his testimony. It is jam packed with every item on the environmental movement’s wish list and goodies for many companies, most notably GE, the parent of the NBC family and The Weather Channel, now selling global warming and the color green in a way not seen since the heyday of Kermit the frog.

    According to ClimateDepot.com, the newspaper, the “Hill” is reporting that “The House may not vote on a climate change bill this year, according to a high-ranking Democratic leader.” That leader is Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, and he says the problem is that a bill probably wouldn’t pass the Senate.” Roger Pielke Jr. on Prometheus chimes in similarly with Maybe Next Year that some Congressional Democrats are thinking that cap and trade legislation might be best considered in 2010.

    DON’T ASSUME ANYTHING. Please make every effort to contact you congressmen and women and senators and write letters to the editor of your local papers, fight the good fight on the various blogs of all persuasions. The facts are according to an MIT study, the cap-and-trade legislation is really a tax-and-trade bill that an Massachusetts Institute of Technology study showed could cost American families $3,100 per year. Green jobs is a phoney claim that sounds wonderful, but recall as I showed here, Dr. Gabriel Calzada, an economics professor at Juan Carlos University in Madrid that found for every green job you create, you can count on 2.2 lost real jobs AND only 1 in 10 green jobs are permanent. That does not even account for lost jobs for industries driven to outsource or actually move abroad to avoid unreasonable taxation. Our economy can’t afford this bill to address a non-issue to enrich folks like Al Gore and companies GE.

    The committee is very large. Your state may have a representive (see membership here). If so, please take the time to contact them and express your opinion. We must deluge the Energy and Commerce committee with phone calls, urging the democratic leadership ((202) 225-2927) to abandon the Waxman-Markey bill and the republicans to ((202) 225-3641) stand firm on resisting approval and not be afraid of the EPA hammer which we will discuss in depth tomorrow. You may not reach a person, but leave a message. I did on both lines. If you prefer to write the committee use this address:

    COMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND COMMERCE
    2125 RAYBURN HOUSE OFFICE BUILDING
    WASHINGTON, D.C. 20515

    There may be no turning back if this bill passes or the EPA ruling survives all challenges. We will have more on the EPA ruling and what you might do about it tomorrow.

    ICECAP will act as a repository of all submitted comments back to the EPA you provide us. We will be working hard to solicit and write our own responses to specific claims made by the EPA based on the seriously flawed CCSP document which, with the many other submissions made to the CCSP, ANPR and this EPA serve as evidentiary material in court challenges to the EPA ruling.

    Icecap could use your help and if you can provide, financial support (no amount too small) for our efforts. We are getting an increasing number of requests to participate in these kind of response efforts and also to give talks, participate in debates and do interviews. We recently did an hour long TV show. We are appearing on an increasing frequency in fronts of large groups, schools from the elementary to college levels. Sometimes they cover our costs or reimburse us for our time, sometimes they can’t. Your donations would help us do more by covering our costs. Unlike the blogs and “progressive climate alarmists sites which have blank check funding, we rely on donations from individuals, small think tanks and associations.

    We are now a tax exempt 501C3 corporation which means all deductions before and now are fully tax deductible for U.S. citizens. We have gotten our first small grants and donations based on this new status. Our first board meeting is coming in early May and we will be discusssing how we can help serve you and our country better. Your suggestions will be welcomed and be considered. Tomorrow the EPA.

  37. I used to fly to boarding school in a DC3 in the 50s. Those were the days when you flew through the clouds, not above them. :)

  38. Those germans will spoil all our work of so many years of massagging data!!
    (JH)
    I will invite them to visit us at Colorado and send them into our newly designed
    microwave kilns….

  39. I know what OMSI is! Oregon Museum of Science and Industry! That is before it turned green. Loved that place. I also remember Jansen Beach when it kinda looked like one, with a very large pool and fantastic amusement park. Now it is just strip malls, and OMSI is next to the river instead of the zoo.

  40. Well it looks like the Catlin Survey are the ones Eis-dick-en pointlessly but not with the ice. I suppose that is their tribute to the current Tea Bagging craze going on.

    It does seem that “swimming with the ice” is a rather strange way to measure ice thickness. I suppose it’s the way that tree huggers would use.

    Airplane seems a wee bit hugely better approach… and a lot more efficient than swimming and eis-dick-en with the ice, not to mention much safer although still riskier than a satellite.

  41. Ron de Haan (17:29:23)said :
    However, during a recent documentary about Antarctic, a broad cast by ZDF, the scientist in charge dismissed any link between CO2 driving our climate and said that AGW was a political hoax.
    He also said that he was doing his job as a scientist and he would not allow politics to interfere with his work or his reporting.
    Fortunately there are many scientists who share a similar opinion and their numbers are growing.

    I am shocked, shocked to hear a climatologist actually doing his job, that is, REAL SCIENCE.

    Perhaps, towards the end of this leftist political drama, all the AGW foolishness will have actually stimulated a renewed interest in the collection of real data and honest analysis without a preconceived agenda.

    Maybe, if you will, AGW will be the “Sputnick” for climatology. That would be cool. So to speak.

    Oh, and that aeroplane is one of the prettiest things I have ever seen. Old man Douglas would have been quite proud I think of this hot-rod version of his Gooney Bird. Simply stunning.

  42. I’ve heard a “rumor” that the Antartic has had -100 F temperatures. Is this true? Is it really 2 months early?

    With the enlargement of the Antartic ice and the parallel enlargement of the artic Ice, could this bode for VERY COLD AND LONG WINTERS FOR THE NEXT FEW YEARS?

  43. Herzlichen Glückwunsch zu diesem feinen Expedition!
    (congratulations to this fine expedition!)

    50 bucks says Catlin will report a diametrically opposed conclusion to this study. (shockingly thin ice will be everywhere….and maybe a few dead polar bears :-)

  44. Robert Wood (16:37:02) :
    You’ve gotta love those Dakotas. Still flying after all these years.

    ralph ellis (16:06:17) :
    For the aviation enthusiasts, this is actually a Super-Dak – A C47 freighter with PT-6 turbines instead of the standard PW-1830 piston radials.

    A.Syme (16:50:18) :
    AH yes……A DC3…..But not really, You would have to call this one a “post modern” DC-3 with it’s turbine engines, plenty of power. Some how the tail looks larger, no doubt more directional control for the larger engines. I worked as a Flight Engineer/Steward/Mechanic/Flight nurse on an old style DC-3 with the Pratt&Whitney 1830 engines flown by a relief organization in the Amazon basin area. It was true job security, never ending work!

    Ron de Haan (17:15:06) :
    A.Syme,
    Have a look at this URL to see all the modifications.
They take a C47 and rebuild it entirely.
When they are finished it’s a new plane, ZERO hours.

    http://www.baslerturbo.com/bt_67_overview.html

    I was amazed to see they were using a DC-3/C-47. I flew in one in Nepal in 1968, a C-47 with school bus seats. When I looked at the props in the pictures, and saw they were way forward of where they should have been, it was obvious the engines had been replaced. From there to Basler to read about the conversion.

    I’m curious about metal fatigue, after all these years. Here’s what Basler’s FAQ says:

    Q. What about fatigue?
    A. The DC-3 airframe is infinitely repairable as related to fatigue damage.

    Not sure I understand that.

    /Mr Lynn

  45. Great job indeed!!. Hope to see their data here in WUWT.
    A light at the end of the dark tunnel, the sun shining through the soot fog of New Age Science!!

  46. The greenies thought that the Arctic had little attention but failed to realize the significance to the military. The ice is getting much more attention both now and in the distant pass then they failed you check. Gotcha!

  47. hareynolds (18:39:43) :

    Ron de Haan (17:29:23)said :
    However, during a recent documentary about Antarctic, a broad cast by ZDF, the scientist in charge dismissed any link between CO2 driving our climate and said that AGW was a political hoax.
    He also said that he was doing his job as a scientist and he would not allow politics to interfere with his work or his reporting.
    Fortunately there are many scientists who share a similar opinion and their numbers are growing.

    I am shocked, shocked to hear a climatologist actually doing his job, that is, REAL SCIENCE.

    Perhaps, towards the end of this leftist political drama, all the AGW foolishness will have actually stimulated a renewed interest in the collection of real data and honest analysis without a preconceived agenda.

    Maybe, if you will, AGW will be the “Sputnick” for climatology. That would be cool. So to speak.

    Oh, and that aeroplane is one of the prettiest things I have ever seen. Old man Douglas would have been quite proud I think of this hot-rod version of his Gooney Bird. Simply stunning.

    hareynolds,
    It very well could be that you are “shocked” about a scientist (I never said the guy was a climatologist) taking a non biased point of view, but that was not the subject.

    You know and I know that the current media (especially the ZDF in Germany, comparable to the BBC and CNBC) filter out every scientific information or data that could damage the green dream AGW doctrine.

    For this purpose they interview biased scientists and lecture their public about all possible AGW/Climate Change scares.

    So if ZDF, broadcasts the non biased opinion of a scientist these days, this certainly is rare event.

    May I point out to you that I wrote down my experience in response to this posting that related to the original article about the thick ice at the Arctic:

    Alexej Buergin (16:50:21) :

    “Bremen is the smallest German state, consisting mainly of the towns of Bremen and Bremerhaven. It is governed by a red-green coalition.
    Radio Bremen ist the public Radio- (and TV-) station.
    That Radio Bremen publishes this news is astonishing”.

    In short, the subject in this posting was not about scientists doing their work but German media putting a non biased AGW message on the air.

    Next time read a posting twice before you express your mental condition.

    I am glad you are pleased with the plane though.

  48. The 3 Caitlteers have to make it out alive first.
    Along with the rescue plane (should it actually find a place to land), they should send some goons to escort the dementia suffering explorers, who should have known better than pull a publicity stunt in a place like that.
    This is twice for Pen Hadlow.
    I call it tired of living.

  49. @David Ball (15:44:08) :
    “Reminds me of a discussion on here regarding the Lord of the Rings plot hole. The question as to why they just didn’t take the golden eagles to the volcano and drop the ring in.”

    One word answer David – Nasgul
    JRR didn’t do plot holes. ; )

  50. 4 meter thick “melted ice” = cap and trade paying me to drive my SUV! (?)

    Not hardly.

    AGW = taxes!

    Physical proof isn’t enough; at the polls, beliefs count. The Reagan revolution cut off direct taxation to fund social agenda. Alternatives had to be found!

    Elected officials do respond to ground swells, however. The key is changing beliefs.

  51. Jack Green,
    That’s true. The ice is thin because… who’s gonna check up on them? Also it seems like GISS usually has the hottest parts of the earth where there are not as many people. Remember the Siberian debacle? Then they pushed the heat into the NWT of Canada and parts of Australia. Its the same with AGW proponents everywhere. No one around the polar bears so they, obviously, are the victims… Who’s going to check up on them?
    The GCMs said that the extra heat would manifest itself in the tropical tropospheric temperatures, but guess what it’s not there… sooooo it must be hiding in the deep ocean!!! Yeah, that’s the ticket!
    The ice is thinning!!! Horror of horrors!! Oh wait… Actually it’s not!

    It’s time to stop this idiotic game of hide and seek… It’s time for some real science for a change.
    When can we all finally say, “Alle, alle auch sind frei!”?

  52. I just submitted this “eisdecke” item to Drudge-lets see if we can get a little more space in spite of the huge H1N1 scare !!! With 22 Million hits a day Drudge can get our message out very effectively.

  53. Is there any info somewhere about the resolution of this equipment? I mean, if they have a resolution of 1 m it would not be anything to get excited about!!! But it would have been nice to fly over the Catlin group to measure the same spots… I suppose the Catlin Expedition have a resolution of a mm.

  54. David Ball (15:44:08) :
    Reminds me of a discussion on here regarding the Lord of the Rings plot hole. The question as to why they just didn’t take the golden eagles to the volcano and drop the ring in.

    Dude, because Sauron would have seen them coming, with horrible results.

  55. Mr Lynn,

    infinitely repairable=disassemble and replace

    Those rebuilt aircraft may have NO original air frame or much else that is stressed or wearable!!!

    On another issue, pity all those folk making plans to exploit the Arctic without an Ice Cap in the summer!!! (especially the Russians)

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

  56. Mr Lynn (18:52:26) :

    Q. What about fatigue?
    A. The DC-3 airframe is infinitely repairable as related to fatigue damage.

    Not sure I understand that.

    /Mr Lynn

    Mr. Lynn,
    The aluminum airframes of the C47 (which does not have a pressured air cabin) have a very long life cycle.
    The entire fuselage and wing sections are produced from sheet metal, attached on a frame by rivets.
    The only threats to the construction of an aluminum air frame is corrosion which could cause metal fatigue.

    Therefore they perform a thorough inspection.

    If they modify a C47, they drill out all the old rivets that hold the aircraft together and inspect the aluminum parts.

    They look for corrosion and cracks, they replace effected parts, apply new corrosion protection and put in new rivets.
    This a time consuming job.
    But when it is finished the plane is like new with ZERO hours.

    Have a look at this Word File providing more insight:
    http://www.rv7-a.com/builder_docs/Repairing%20Sheet%20Metal.doc

  57. pwl (18:25:28) :
    Well it looks like the Catlin Survey are the ones Eis-dick-en pointlessly but not with the ice. I suppose that is their tribute to the current Tea Bagging craze going on.

    It does seem that “swimming with the ice” is a rather strange way to measure ice thickness. I suppose it’s the way that tree huggers would use.

    Airplane seems a wee bit hugely better approach… and a lot more efficient than swimming and eis-dick-en with the ice, not to mention much safer although still riskier than a satellite.

    You think a plane is safer, any idea where and how Amundsen died? Hint it wasn’t schlepping across the ice towing a sled.
    In the ‘small print’ note that the airborne device was calibrated by drilling ice, so some poor sod did schlep across some ice somewhere drilling holes!

  58. “BTW “Eisdicken” translates to “ice thickness”. – Anthony”

    This is the first time I’ve read an article on arctic ice where it’s made me feel dirty.

  59. I get the sense that most of you are wondering what in the world is the Catlin Survey doing Eisdicken-around in the Arctic.

  60. Here is my translation. “Dicken” is a plural, so I have translated it to “thicknesses”. The plural means the thickness at various different locations, obviously.
    My translation – unfortunately – doesn’t have some of the humorous surprises that Google translator produces, but I figured maybe someone may want to know exactly what it says in German.

    ===========

    The research aircraft “Polar 5″ is finishing its latest arctic expedition in Canada today. During the flight, scientist have measured the current strength of the ice at the North Pole, in particular in regions that have never before been flown over. Result: sea-ice in the studied areas is apparently thicker than the scientists had suspected.

    Normally, newly formed ice is roughly two meters thick after two years (according to the scientist mentioned next – this is a transcribed quotation as the German uses the subjunctive – “sei” instead of “ist”). “But here, the ice thicknesses were measured to be up to four meters, ” said a spokesperson of the Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar Research and Oceanography in Bremerhaven. For the scientists this result is presently still in contradiction to the warming of the seawater.

    Besides the ice thicknesses, the composition of the air was also studied. With the help of a laser the scientists checked how polluted by exhaust gas from industrial contries the athmosphere is. The results will be analyzed in the coming weeks. Around 20 scientists from the US, Canada, Italy and Germany participated in the expedition.

  61. Joe Papp (18:41:53) :
    I’ve heard a “rumor” that the Antartic has had -100 F temperatures. Is this true? Is it really 2 months early?
    —————————-
    Get with the program Joe. Whether it’s true or not, it’s the man-made ozone hole’s fault. Peer-reviewed and all that, so it must be true.

    …. and, back on-topic to the other pole, can we get the news up there that they’ve been scooped by the Germans, then the eisdickenheads can come home ???

  62. “Result: The sea-ice in the surveyed areas is apparently thicker than the researchers had suspected. Normally, ice is newly formed after two years, over two meters thick. “Here were Eisdicken up to four meters,” ”

    Thicker ice means a slower summer melt than suspected too.

    Here’s JAXA today–still clearly behind last year :

    http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

    I love the smell of slower melting ice in the morning….

  63. And this brings this winter’s Arctic ice season to a close!
    Thanks for staying for the finale, and watch for the DVDs with staff commentary and extra surprises!
    Everyone please leave in an orderly fashion, pick up free sunscreen in the lobby, and we thank you for all the food and clothing donations in the Caitlin barrels. We’ll airdrop those next week, and everyone come back in the fall for an update on their progress!

  64. Jeff B. (16:55:36) :

    They had a DC-3 parked outside of OMSI when I was a kid. I spent many days checking it out.

    They moved, and now there’s no room for the bird. Instead, there’s a submarine parked out back.

    Too bad it’s an SS, and not an SSN: could make an “OMSI Under the Ice” Expedition.

  65. “philincalifornia (20:44:12) : then the eisdickenheads can come home ???”

    Maybe I’m tired and punchy, but this is funny too!

  66. Sooo, I guess the “sensor drift” satellite malfunction was going on
    last year too. Wow, I sure hope they get it calibrated….I mean fixed!

  67. “A catlin was a long, double-bladed knife used for surgery, commonly amputations.”

    No doubt very useful if you have severe frostbite, what goes around comes around.

  68. That the Germans are reporting larger eisdicken than an English expedition is unsurprising. This rivalry has been going on for centuries.

  69. Yeah, Steve, I run by the sub all the time on the promendae trail there on the Eastbank. And yeah Pamela, they ruined OMSI. When I was a kid it was a really hands on place filled with great exhibits that carefully explained and allowed a kid to experiment with electricity, magnetism, force, pressure biological concepts, etc. OMSI is a large part of how I was inspired to become an engineer. Today they have a whole floor dedicated to whining about AGW. And there’s cavernous wasted space that unlike the old museum by the Zoo, reduces the classrooms that taught kids after school. And the Gravitram is now hiding far from the main entrance. Bank then you could buy chemicals in the store and it was more like a lab supply. Today it is more like every other schlocky overpriced gift shop. It’s sad, but folks like those who run Portland have dashed our culture and make their strongest efforts now to indoctrinate rather than inspire and teach.

    There is still some of the old OMSI spirit left at the Exploratorium in SF. But I am sure that will soon be replaced with a giant IMAX running Algore hysteria 24/7.

  70. G Alston (21:54:23) :

    That the Germans are reporting larger eisdicken than an English expedition is unsurprising. This rivalry has been going on for centuries.

    Too funny!

  71. Apologies Anthony, I don’t know where else to post this, but for your further information re the above from Raff:

    “Raff (15:26:20) :

    Anthony – this is off the topic. There were two brilliant articles (Jan Veizer and William Kininmonth) published by The Australian lately: here the links:”

    I have also just read a half-page letter from William Kininmonth in today’s Australian Financial Review (29.04.09), giving the most succinct, reasoned and irrefutable rebuttal of AGW science and politics that I seen. It is couched in calm, apolitical, realistic scientific terms for the educated layman, and will be read by every banker, company director, stockbroker and financially astute politician in the country.

    The AFR is the local equivalent of the London Financial Times, and equally authoritative, as the financial community are only interested in the actual facts. William Kinninmonth is of course the former head of Australia’s National Climate Centre.

    Unfortunately I don’t have a link to the letter for you, as I only have my paper copy and am not subscribed to the AFR’s rather expensive online service (perhaps another Australian reader has?).

    But this letter, plus the similar articles in the Australian Newspaper online and the current book by respected geologist Prof. Ian Plimer will have a significant effect on the opinions that matter here in Australia.

    Elsewhere in the paper there is an article describing an endorsement that Primie Minister Kevin Rudd’s Climate Change Minister Penny Wong feels she has had from Barrack Obama for her carbon cap-and-trade policies. But I think they may end looking like King Canute, with wet socks.

    With regards,

    Larry Kirk

  72. You’re more or less correct Florian…dicke typically translates to ‘thick’. However it’s also used descriptively, in which case the implied meaning is ‘fat’. Example: a popular WWII German comedienne used a pig in his routine; the porker’s name was, ‘Dicke Hermann’. [And no, he wasn’t shot…]

  73. G Alston (21:54:23) :
    That the Germans are reporting larger eisdicken than an English expedition is unsurprising. This rivalry has been going on for centuries.
    ——————————

    Oh dear …. “My eisdicken is thicker than yours” ???

    REPLY: OK OK enough fun, let’s leave it at this. – Anthony

    I’m going with the Germans on this one.

  74. Leon Brozyna (15:24:30) said…..

    “If “Eisdicken” translates to “ice thickness”, what does Catlin translate to? Disaster? Catastrophe? Misery?”…….

    Howabout……. Stupidity?

    LoL ;-)

  75. Anthony,
    Are you saying size doesn’t matter or that it’s just OT?

    REPLY: I’m saying that if we don’t stop with the jokes, some posters are going to get [snipped] – Anthony

  76. I think 2009 is bigger than 2008! That ‘ice thickness’ wins! Is it from Africa?

    Ok, I’ll leave it at this and respect the wishes of the moderator, and boss here. ;)

  77. A totally dumb question: that thing looks like a nuclear rocket!

    Has the thing been validated using independent direct measurement (i.e. drilling a hole down through the ice until you reach water……..)?

    After all, policy may well be significantly affected by results of this kind, so it’s as well to know that the measurement kit is robust, reliable and reproducible…

    That’s not a given in the world of sensors, I have to say………

  78. Leon Brozyna (15:24:30) :

    If “Eisdicken” translates to “ice thickness”, what does Catlin translate to? Disaster? Catastrophe? Misery?

    ~~~

    expendable AGW pawns.

  79. Regarding putting off the senate AGW legislation to 2010.

    They are one seat away from a fillibuster proof majority with Spector becoming a Democrat today.

    They will probably hold off on any big legislation for the results of the still ongoing Minnesota senate race. Then legislation can be brought without contest.

  80. >>Pity they didn’t run a survey leg over the Catlin team
    >>just to rub it in.

    Indeed, why did they not do this to calibrate their equipment with real measurements? Probably because they would not trust any data comming out of such a political enterprise as the Catlin expedition.

    .

  81. Well Phil. (20:05:36) I did rank “eis-dick-en by swimming with the ice” to be more dangerous than flying since getting your feet wet can actually cause frost bite and lead to lost lives, limbs, and digits such as toes… I also stated that flying was “riskier” than using satellites… so it’s a matter of perspective… and likely accuracy… I wonder which is more accurate? the plane style eisdicken survey the germans conducted or an arctic satellite fly over… certainly the satellite would give greater area coverage. Note that flying planes is still dangerous, but likely a lot less dangerous than walking across the arctic ice pack as it melts in the sping time when taking the plunge to measure ice thickness with your hands makes no sense… might as well be eis-dick-en instead… certainly it’d be more fun. I suppose the only advantage of being in a remote place like the arctic is that when (and IF) you return you might find that you’re the only ones to have survived the plague that hit while you were having fun losing toes up north while hugging the ice… Nothing like hands on science I suppose.

    I support smart science rather than stupid scientist games and travels.

  82. Come on you guys don’t you know the difference between weather and climate?

    Has this study been peer reviewed?

    Furthermore how can they possibly be more accurate by actually measuring the ice thickness than if they stayed in their office and reported the thickness from computer models?.

    Mr Gore has recently informed us that Black Carbon/Soot is now as big a threat as CO2 emissions.

    I have wrtten to him recently to suggest that as the Planet has reached tipping point, the only way forward is to dye the snow and ice black until such time as the evil of CO2 is under control. Also to assist with further cooling the sand and rock outcrops of the major deserts of the would could also be dyed black.

    It will be very important to use paints with the correct patina in order to ensure that only a certain amount of energy is reflected and just sufficient absorbed to maintain oscillatory temperature variation.

    I must not take full credit for the idea of dying the sand black, as this idea was imparted to me whilst studying my degree in camel hygiene at Swindon University.

    Trust me for to be sure for some of us green is the new brown gravy train?

  83. While I think the current developments in ice situation is interesting indeed, I think we should wait until later in summer before glouting too much.

    Eyballing a set of curves like the JAXA, I think it is evident that the largest interannual differences are found at the extremes of the cycle. I would think oceanic heat content only can explain a part of these differences, and
    expect that wind and current patterns is at least an important contributor.
    In winter at the polar periphery, e.g the Okhotsk Sea and The Barents Sea, and for the summer/autumn minimum, closer to the central part of the polar basin. Hence we may still experience a rapid ice loss if wind and current patterns are favorable for ice transportation.

    Anyway, allthough I will not glout, I am open for a bet: I am reasonably certain that the summer ice area in 2009 will be close to 6 mill km2, i.e. within the 1979-2007 mean.
    Cassanders
    In Cod we trust

  84. Amazing, Catlin with their high tech state-of-the-art equipment trudging on foot versus a Dakota that could be nearly 70 years old towing an airborne torpedo with a fan on the end!

  85. Well, that shows what the Catlin Expedition really is. An ill-founded, amateurish adventure for propaganda reasons providing useless random data on a short track. It’s a pity that the plane did’nt pick a route going over the Catlin team to show them how it’s done professionally/scientifically.

  86. “If “Eisdicken” translates to “ice thickness”, what does Catlin translate to? Disaster? Catastrophe? Misery?”

    “Cat litter in der brain”.

  87. There is a claim in today’s printed London Times (the weather section) that ‘ice in the arctic melts much faster than normal and many places are open far earlier’.

    It is unclear from the quotation whether the person interviewed was there right now or whether this is alluding to two years ago.

    Is there a network of webcams at various places near arctic ice (Baffin Island and all the other land masses around the NW passage; Svalbard; North Coast of Russia etc) where one can monitor this?

    Since according to http://www.nsidc.org, the ice this year is most certainly NOT melting faster than average…………

  88. Maybe its time we skeptics started supporting nsidc and even CT as they are obliged to report data “as is”. On another note you may notice how some ice sites like to use “thick” lines to maybe “cover up” trends (ie AMSR) so therefore I recommend this site:

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

    where you can really see the difference. Another is AMSU global temp data:

    http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/

    Also we should perhaps be not so nasty with all these sites even the AGW ones because they are doing everybody a service by providing data, graphs etc…

  89. Phil. (20:05:36) :

    Your snarkiness about Amundsen is up to your usual poor taste.

    Amundsen disappeared on June 18, 1928 while flying on a rescue mission in a Latham 47 with Norwegian pilot Leif Dietrichson, French pilot Rene Guilbaud, and three more Frenchmen, looking for missing members of Nobile’s crew, whose new airship Italia had crashed while returning from the North Pole. They were very brave men!

    Aircraft have improved since then, but you obviously wouldn’t want to let facts like that get in the way of a good story.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latham_47

    As to your other point, naturally, the airborne device was calibrated by drilling holes in ice, but such a procedure would be performed sensibly, quickly and efficiently, close to base. Then the equipment was deployed to measure the Arctic ice, thus rendering the efforts of the Catlin crew, a waste of time and effort, except as an amusing “divertissement”.

    Unfortunately, it could still be a tragedy. Pen, Ann and Martin have now been patiently waiting at their runway strip for 5 days. This is a frustrating for the team. The bad weather must pass before the resupply plane can come in with the food and fuel the team need to progress north.

    On a normal sledging day the team would consume up to 6000 calories. However, after studying the weather charts, a long delay for this resupply was anticipated and the team have now slashed their ration intake to 1000 calories per day, enabling them to last for a further 7 days.

    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/latestfromtheice

  90. Here is a first interview with one of the scientists from the Polar 5 mission, called PAM-ARCMIP (Pan-Arctic Measurements and Arctic Climate Model Inter comparison Project). It’s in German therefore a brief summary:

    Professor Klaus Dethloff, physicist at the Alfred-Wegener-Institute Potsdam (polar and maritime research), explains that the express purpose of this mission was to collect data in order to improve the models used to describe/predict climate change. He calls the models weakest in regards to the polar regions, stressing that this also applies to the 2007 IPCC report and the models used there.

    He subtly deflects the reporter’s question as to the actual results achieved (This suggests to me she has already heard of the ice thickness being double what was expected). He does so twice, even when she asks about spectacular results. His answer: yes, it is spectacular that we now have actual measurements for ice thickness. No data is mentioned.

    http://www.inforadio.de/static/dyn2sta_article/212/626212_article.shtml

    (Click on the loudspeaker symbol next to the inevitable polar bear jumping about for the audio file)

  91. http://www.awi.de/en/news/press_releases/detail/item/ende_ark_xxiii3/?cHash=27cb41926f

    17. October 2008: Research around the North Pole – RV Polarstern returns home after its expedition through the Northeast and Northwest Passages
    The German research vessel Polarstern has returned today to Bremerhaven from the Arctic Sea. It has cruised as the first research vessel ever both the Northeast and the Northwest Passages and thereby circled the North Pole. The third part of the research vessel’s 23rd Arctic expedition, operated by the Alfred Wegener Institute in the Helmholtz Association, started its journey on August 12th in Reykjavik and ended it on October 17th in Bremerhaven. The ship travelled a distance of 10.800 nautical miles, equivalent to 20.000 kilometres. On board were 47 researchers from 12 nations, for example from Belgium, Germany, France, Japan, Canada, Korea, the Netherlands, Russia and the USA. Because of the small ice cover, the expedition members were able to research hitherto uncharted waters. The small sea ice cover presents a cause for concern regarding climate change in the Arctic Ocean. The aim of this expedition was to gather data on the development of the geology of the Arctic area.

  92. “David Ball (15:44:08) :

    Reminds me of a discussion on here regarding the Lord of the Rings plot hole. The question as to why they just didn’t take the golden eagles to the volcano and drop the ring in.”
    =============================

    I wish that the Elrond character had seen that the king had failed to throw the ring into the fires of Mount Doom and that he could have decided to kill the king and take the ring and throw it into mount doom himself when he had the chance, instead of spending the next 400 years moaning about how men failed. Hey pointy eared elf dude, YOU WERE THERE AND DID NOTHING! YOU FAILED TOO!!! I mean I did not see an elf cutting Sauron’s hand off, did you?

    Sorry for the minor rant, but I will never get the nine+ hours back from watching the trilogy.

    As for this German mission, I really do not expect to see any reference to it in the mainstream media. We will be saturated with stories about the Brave Brits who risked their lives to prove that the ice was shrinking and we nasty humans are a threat to those nice cuddly cute polar bears and despite their increasing numbers, we are causing their extinction.

  93. Just thinking of the carefully written postings coming from the Catlin crew. As we discuss something here, it is very soon mentioned on their postings. When I first started following the AGW debate many were talking about the influence of the sun, within weeks several studies came out saying that the sun had no influence on climate. When the bouy data showed that the oceans were warming, it wasn’t too long before that was spun… when the tropospheric hot spot couldn’t be found, the data is suspect too… when the medieval warm period seemed inconvenient, we get the hockey stick… Now our public officials either are already using teleprompters for every utterence, or they should be. Everything is a show, and even the most august institutions are in on it… If you didn’t see the president’s speech to the NAS, you definitely should.
    Everything is adjusted for our viewing pleasure. Catlin already had the results of the study BEFORE they had the funding.
    We live in interesting times, I think. Of course as always I could be wrong.

  94. Ken Hall (04:55:27)
    “I wish that the Elrond character… could have decided to kill the king and take the ring and throw it into mount doom..”

    But surely Isildur would have just put on the ring and escaped. Anyway, elves are just glorified fairies, so I reckon he could take Elrond no problem, visible or not. You have to think these things through scientifically.

    What were we talking about? Ice or something.

  95. Cassanders (01:02:39) :

    “Anyway, allthough I will not glout, I am open for a bet: I am reasonably certain that the summer ice area in 2009 will be close to 6 mill km2, i.e. within the 1979-2007 mean.”
    Cassanders
    In Cod we trust

    I’ll take you up on that! My guess is for 5.5 million km^2, greater that 2005 but not fully recovered from 2007 yet. Maybe next year. The winner is the one closest to the actual number.

    Are you on? Loser donates $20 to Anthony.

  96. ak (15:02:13) It seems if there were contradictory evidence they would march it out for the world to see, no?

    No, they wouldn’t. Are you beginning to see the problem?

  97. Thankfully there are people out there actually looking for what the facts are regardless of their preconceived expectations. It’s a great contrast to the Catlin PR mission.

  98. Somewhat odd that NSIDC has three lines on Antarctic sea ice extent graph:
    1) 1979-2000 Average
    2) 2008
    3) 2009

    However the three lines on the Arctic sea ice extent graph are:
    1) 1979-2000 Average
    2) 2007… yup 2007
    3) 2009

    This really accentuates the difference between 2007 and 2009…
    I bet they wish that they had used the 2008…
    Maybe they will change it.

  99. “Is there a network of webcams at various places near arctic ice (Baffin Island and all the other land masses around the NW passage; Svalbard; North Coast of Russia etc) where one can monitor this?”

    Svalbard webcams at:

    http://www.svalbard.com/webcam/

    Definitely more ice than normal there this late in the spring. Almost no open water in Isfjorden.

  100. Perry Debell (04:05:27) :
    Phil. (20:05:36) :

    Your snarkiness about Amundsen is up to your usual poor taste.

    There was no snarkiness about Amundsen, I was just noting the irony of the poster comparing the safety of planes flying at low altitude over Arctic ice in winter with footslogging over the same ice when the greatest polar explorer of all time died flying over the ice.

    Aircraft have improved since then, but you obviously wouldn’t want to let facts like that get in the way of a good story.

    Indeed they have as have communications, as a pilot I’m well aware of that, however flying at low level over Arctic ice in the changeable winter weather conditions is a dangerous occupation. Note the difficulties that the resupply group has with the Catlin expedition and they’re arguably the most experienced pilots in the world under those conditions.

    As to your other point, naturally, the airborne device was calibrated by drilling holes in ice, but such a procedure would be performed sensibly, quickly and efficiently, close to base.

    Really, 3-4m sea ice complete with leads and pressure ridges for calibration can be found where? The previous results with that apparatus indicate a measurement uncertainty of ~ ±0.25m. Their results based on the press release would seem to show thinner ice than expected for the areas that they surveyed. I’d expect to see some ice up to ~6m near Eureka rather than the 4m referred to. I guess the ice is thinning faster than I thought?
    The whole point of the mission was to measure in regions of thick MY ice where the Polarstern is unable to go so the results seem reasonable except for the lack of thicker ice. Hopefully when the results are published we’ll get a better picture.

    Then the equipment was deployed to measure the Arctic ice, thus rendering the efforts of the Catlin crew, a waste of time and effort, except as an amusing “divertissement”.

    And subject to many of the same criticisms that have been levelled here about the value of the results regarding their reproducibility etc.

  101. Falling temperatures, thick ice…
    Darn, its hard to be global warming believer.

    Mike Bryant:
    Your listing of fact followed by “new findings” that saves the global warming theory reminds me so much of the creationists.

    I have been lecturing evolution and followed the evolutionist/creationist sad debate for many years. It is so similar:
    Every single time evolutionists presents new solid evidence like skeletons ets, then the creationsists comes out with some sick sad explanation.

    Creationists and Alarmists seems to share this anti-evidence-routine.

    And then its funny, that the alarmists has exactly blamed sceptics for behaving like creationists. But as an evolutionist, I certainly dont see that parallel in the real world.

    NASA … so sad.

    How many decades will it take to restore your credability??
    Why have you made your unique good name a JOKE like this??

    I will never understand.
    If NASA should preserve just a tiny tiny rest of dignity, NASA should RIGHT AWAY come up with the true story. The more they wait, the worse for their reputation.

  102. vg (03:33:37) :
    Maybe its time we skeptics started supporting nsidc and even CT as they are obliged to report data “as is”. On another note you may notice how some ice sites like to use “thick” lines to maybe “cover up” trends (ie AMSR) so therefore I recommend this site:

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

    where you can really see the difference.

    Depending on the screen the thin lines aren’t as clear and aren’t as good when used with projectors so I prefer the thicker lines. The DMI site is interesting but one thing I haven’t seen explained is why their data is low by about 4Mm^2 in the winter and by 1Mm^2 in the summer compared with AMSR-E, it can’t just be the 30%/15% threshold.

  103. Just to clear the air for LOTR fans, I truly enjoyed the books as a youth and the movies when they came out . I re-read the books after seeing the movie, and found them to be even better than my initial reading. The plot hole thing is only a little humor that I found to be quite funny and thought it a great analogy to the Caitlin survey (read fiasco) being made to look so foolish by a real scientific endeavor with very little risk, comparatively. No disrespect intended for Tolken or his fans. You have to admit, it certainly highlights the glaring deception of the Caitlin expedition. You cannot tell me that Hadow did not know this could be accomplished in a much more efficient , less hazardous, scientific manner. I can imagine the plane passing over them and Ann saying “you mean we could have done it that way”?

  104. I certainly do NOT wish this to come to pass, but what kind of (snip) storm will there be if the recovery plane crashes and somebody dies trying to pick these people (want to say idiots) up? Will it be covered up? Or will they downplay it in the media the way the New York photo op fiasco is being downplayed? Is this an indication of how this administration thinks? Or doesn’t think, as this indicates. Sorry to highjack this thread, but since it is no longer leading post, I thought I might throw it out there.

  105. New interview with the Alfred-Wegner-Institut.

    http://www.uni-protokolle.de/nachrichten/id/176043/

    I try to translate the most important part:

    Serveral flights from different stations to the north shows an ice thickness from 2.5m (two year old ice near the north pole) to 4m (perennial ice near the coast of Canada) . All in all the ice was a little thicker than in the last years in the same region. Therefore we can assume that the arctic ice recover at the moment. At the north coast of Ellesmere Island the reseacher found the thickest ice, it was more than 15m thick.

    Mehrere Flüge von verschiedenen Stationen nach Norden ergaben Eisdicken zwischen 2,5 Meter (zweijähriges Eis in der Nähe des Nordpols) und vier Metern (mehrjähriges Eis in küstenahen Gebieten vor Kanada). Insgesamt war das Eis etwas dicker als in den vergangenen Jahren in den gleichen Regionen, was eine temporäre Erholung der arktischen Eisdecke vermuten lässt. Entlang der nördlichen Küste von Ellesmere Island fanden die Forscher das dickste Eis, mit Dicken oft größer als 15 Meter.

  106. yddar (08:29:12) :

    “New interview with the Alfred-Wegner-Institut.
    …………
    At the north coast of Ellesmere Island the researchers found the thickest ice, it was more than 15m thick. ”

    This is the ice that was pushed west in 2007 because of the combined wind and currents. All of it wasn’t pushed through the gap between Greenland and Svalbard and melted in the northern Atlantic.
    A lot was piled up behind Ellesmere Island, Greenland and Svalbard.
    Ice extent became a lot smaller but ice volume was not so much smaller.
    Just a theory.

  107. For inquiring minds, the aircraft shown is a Basler BT-67. Basler Turbo Conversions starts with a C-47 airframe, completely rebuilds it including a number of modifications (most notably, a 40 inch fuselage stretch to compensate for the lighter turbine engines) and installs the PW PT6-67 turboprop engines. I have visited their facility researching a scale model that I built.

    Website: http://www.baslerturbo.com

  108. yddar (08:29:12) :
    New interview with the Alfred-Wegner-Institut.

    http://www.uni-protokolle.de/nachrichten/id/176043/

    I try to translate the most important part:

    Serveral flights from different stations to the north shows an ice thickness from 2.5m (two year old ice near the north pole) to 4m (perennial ice near the coast of Canada) . All in all the ice was a little thicker than in the last years in the same region. Therefore we can assume that the arctic ice recover at the moment. At the north coast of Ellesmere Island the reseacher found the thickest ice, it was more than 15m thick.

    Thanks that makes more sense than the first press release.
    However, since they were making the first flight of this nature what data are they comparing with from last year?
    “The operation of the research aircraft Polar 5 will allow for the first time to carry out large scale ice thickness measurements in Arctic key areas which could hitherto not be reached by the German research vessel Polarstern.”

    http://www.awi.de/en/news/press_releases/detail/item/pam_arcmip/?cHash=17cb2bdafa

  109. John Silver (09:47:07) :
    yddar (08:29:12) :

    “New interview with the Alfred-Wegner-Institut.
    …………
    At the north coast of Ellesmere Island the researchers found the thickest ice, it was more than 15m thick. ”

    This is the ice that was pushed west in 2007 because of the combined wind and currents. All of it wasn’t pushed through the gap between Greenland and Svalbard and melted in the northern Atlantic.
    A lot was piled up behind Ellesmere Island, Greenland and Svalbard.
    Ice extent became a lot smaller but ice volume was not so much smaller.
    Just a theory.

    But not one which is consistent with the data.

  110. Gina Becker (17:19:02) :

    As I’ve been saying for a couple of decades now, it’s soot! The albedo effect, along with solar cycle influences. The heavy pollution detected on this mission supports the hypothesis. The arctic (along with the northern most countries) is the only place where the warming trend is significant and possibly due to human influnec. But GHG has nothing to do with it. In the rest of the world, most of the “warming” is obviously due to poor sensor placement, urban heat island effects, and mostly, religiously biased temperature “correction.” The data set is junk.

    Some studies have been done on albedo effect difference due to soot in limited regions of the arctic (see Hansen’s paper), but why aren’t some of the trillions being spent to extend the research and correct this problem?? It’s an easy correction, based on known technology.

    This year, China’s efforts to close factories for the Olympics, plus the recession’s effect on factory production, plus the extended solar minimum, add up to a good hypothesis on why the positive-feedback, runaway ice melt, which the IPCC and gang eagerly awaits, is not happening!

    Gina Becker,

    I think your conclusions are far fetched.

    I also have read several reports about soot (black carbon) from industrial emissions,
    aircraft emissions, but also natural effects like forest fires, underground burning coal fields (see Wikipedia) volcanic emission (like Redoubt, but also much bigger events like the 1912 VEI7 Novarupta eruption and dust clouds
    Gobi Desert (China) and the Sahara for example.

    The sum of these effects have been with us all the time and they have ample effects.

    I don’t say that a dense amount of soot on snow or ice does not have any effect but the temperature band where ice or snow melt is accelerated is rather small.

    Dark soot accelerates ice and snow melt at temperatures up to minus 2.5 degree.
    And this happens only at moderate to low wind speeds.
    Some of the reports I have read stated that soot would be responsible for 25% of the ice melt but I think they are a canard.

    The Arctic Sea Ice fluctuates due to natural cycles, wind and ocean currents.

    The real melting is caused when the ice is transported from the Arctic into warmer waters, observe this process here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/13/
    This was the only situation where the ice levels showed a historic low since ice extend is measured since 1979. And you refer to it as “run away ice melt”.
    I call it BS (Bad Science).
    To refer to ANY Hanson paper on this Blog is a kind of sin, since all his reports are debunked.

    If you look at the seasonal graph of Arctic Polar Ice extend from 1979 until today I can only say that it looks very healthy and that we have absolutely nothing to worry about.

    As a last remark about soot.

    During the last winter I have used the content of my fire place (I burned briquettes)
    on the snowy pavement to prevent my visitors to slip and fall in front of my house.

    It had no effect. The underground did not thaw up, it only looked very dirty.
    Untill the next snow fell and it was covered.

  111. The BT-67 is a great modification of the immortal DC-3-I have a fondness for
    Douglas products anyway.I just hope and pray that the Catlin expediton does not turn out something akin to Earnest K. Gann’s “Island in the Sky”..
    Good movie with John wayne too…

  112. Joe Papp (18:41:53)

    Joe
    If you want to check out the coldest of cold in Antarctica, then watch the Dome Argus AWS. (note the 1m air sensor value on the 25th April).

  113. After all this discussion about thinning ice it might be interesting to see how thick the ”pristine pre-industrial” ice in the Arctic really was.

    Here are som figures from Nansen’s “Fram öfver Polarhavet”, Vol 2, , Chapter “Origin, growth and compression of the Ice” pp. 547-550. (1897).
    Remember that this was the tail-end of the Little Ice Age.

    The expedition let itself get frozen into the ice off Eastern Siberia in October 1893. The ice that started forming on the leads at this time grew like this

    April 1894 2,31 meter
    June 9 1894 2,58 meter
    July 10 1894 2,76 meter (=first-year maximum)
    September 1894 2,00 meter (=first-year minimum)
    November 10 1894 2,08 meter
    December 11 1894 2,11 meter
    February 6 1895 2,59 meter
    May 11 1895 3,00 meter
    May 30 1895 3,03 meter

    Measurements at this spot ended at this time, probably because the ice got scrunched up in a pressure ridge, but continued at a nearby site. There the thickness was

    November 4 1895 3,36 meter
    May 4 1896 3,97 meter

    By this time the ice (and Fram) had drifted all the way across the Arctic Ocean into Fram Strait (guess what it is named for), whereupon Fram got loose from the ice and the latter presumably melted, as all sea-ice in the Arctic does after a few years.

    So 2,5 meter for second-year ice in April and 4 meters for “perennial ice” (which really does not exist in the Arctic) may be a little less than that old-time ice, but not much.

  114. Mike Bryant wrote:
    “When the buoy data showed that the oceans were warming, it wasn’t too long before that was spun.”

    I think you meant to say “cooling,’ or “weren’t warming,” no?

  115. @Silver

    You are right, the Alfred-Wegner-Institut says about the 2008 ice:

    “It cannot be excluded that sea ice is simply mechanically reallocated,” reports Gerdes. “Our model computations show that ice transport from eastern to western Arctic waters caused by wind was an important factor in the great ice-free areas of the Siberian Shelf in the year 2007.”

    http://www.awi.de/eng/aktuelles_und_presse/pressemitteilungen/detail/item/minimum_arctic_sea_ice_2008/?cHash=7768f9b4cd

  116. “Roger Knights (12:05:23) :
    Mike Bryant wrote:
    “When the buoy data showed that the oceans were warming, it wasn’t too long before that was spun.”
    I think you meant to say “cooling,’ or “weren’t warming,” no?”

    You are correct sir, too bad I can’t adjust and homogenize that comment! :)
    Mike

  117. “”” Capt. L. Oates (15:18:12) :

    Dear Pen

    Shame about the dastardly Jerries and their rotten old plane, what ?

    Just where the deuce was Biggles when you needed him most ?

    Reminds one of that pesky Norwegian chappie, Amundsister or something or other, and his dogs, eh ?

    Can’t dawdle, I am just going outside and I may be quite some time.

    Cheerio and good luck !

    Laurence “””

    What say old chap; buggered up the foot a bit there I see ! Well get some sleep out there Larry; you’ve earned it.

    “To strive; to seek; to find; and not to yield !”

    RFS 1912

  118. “”” Gina Becker (17:19:02) :

    As I’ve been saying for a couple of decades now, it’s soot! The albedo effect, along with solar cycle influences. The heavy pollution detected on this mission supports the hypothesis. The arctic (along with the northern most countries) is the only place where the warming trend is significant and possibly due to human influnec. But GHG has nothing to do with it. In the rest of the world, most of the “warming” is obviously due to poor sensor placement, urban heat island effects, and mostly, religiously biased temperature “correction.” The data set is junk.

    Some studies have been done on albedo effect difference due to soot in limited regions of the arctic (see Hansen’s paper), but why aren’t some of the trillions being spent to extend the research and correct this problem?? It’s an easy correction, based on known technology.

    This year, China’s efforts to close factories for the Olympics, plus the recession’s effect on factory production, plus the extended solar minimum, add up to a good hypothesis on why the positive-feedback, runaway ice melt, which the IPCC and gang eagerly awaits, is not happening! “””

    Well the mechanism does not impress me Gina.
    True; soot on the snow would absorb some of the very limited amount of solar radiation and thereby heat the soot particle. The heated particle would then melt the surrounding ice, and drop down under the surface, till it disappeared from sight, and the melted ice would refreeze.

    Have you ever seen soot on a snow or ice field. I’ve seen black dust particles on the end face of the Fox and Franz Josef Glaciers in New Zealand; that are about as removed from man made carbonaceous polition as you can imagine. Yes you can see photos of glaciers with black lines on them; but mostly what you are seeing is rocks that have fallen on to the ice from the canyons the glaciers travel down, which gradually work their way to the central regions of the glacier to for those trails.

    Yes you are correct soot on snow will encourage local melting; but the process is self limiting.

    And what the dickens is all this ice thickness business about. If the chap said it was 4 metres; then it was 4 metres; he was expecting 2 but found 4.

    Yes I’m sure what he found was the only ice block in the Arctic.

    If they count it as full coverage when it is 15% ice and 85% open water; we should consider some 4 metre ice as a good trend iven if only 155 of it is that thick.

  119. George, Ron,

    A study out in the last year or so in _Science_ showed that during the Industrial Revolution, the soot in the arctic due to industry was seven to eight times that from forest fires. It was very significant. The U.S. cleaned up, then Europe, but industrializing nations like China are creating soot like mad. I don’t know what the ratio of manmade to natural is now in the Arctic, but I’ve read that 25% of the pollution in Los Angelos is from Asia. Analyses also show Asian soot in the Colorado Rockies, etc. You look at satellite photos, and there’s a dark cloud coming from Asia, drifting heavily across the arctic. The soot is layered throughout the ice, and it accelerates melting in the melting season. It’s impossible, without a lot more analysis, to predict the effects of this on Arctic melt, but I’ve seen estimates of up to 85%.

    Of course, as you say, sun, ocean cycles and wind patterns could swamp any manmade effect. But if we’re looking for ways we might control the climate, this mechanism of soot-driven Arctic ice melt fits the “global temperature” data set much better (under Ockham’s razor) than the GHG mechanism, which relies on poorly understood proxy data and highly conflicting hypotheses to amplify the insignificant GHG effect of 100 ppm CO2 by maximizing/minimizing the forcings and feedbacks of volcanoes, solar irradiance, convective heat transfer, etc, to match the latest data. The surface temperature and proxy data are complete junk, and it takes wildly imaginitive “science” to use the GHG hypothesis to explain any regional variability, such as antarctica ice growth, the antithetical cooling stratosphere, and the troposphere data, which also showed cooling until it was “corrected.” Basically, whatever is observed is what the models are quickly found to “predict.”

    The satellite photos of Arctic melting are more convincing, though, even though they only show a thirty year snapshot. And the temperature stations in the Arctic, which show significant increases in some areas, are less affected by urban heat island effects. Again, it could be all natural, yes. But an arctic-based “change” stands up much better to Ockham’s razor than the GHG convolutions.

  120. Mr Lynn (18:52:26) :

    Robert Wood (16:37:02) :

    I’m curious about metal fatigue, after all these years. Here’s what Basler’s FAQ says:

    Q. What about fatigue?
    A. The DC-3 airframe is infinitely repairable as related to fatigue damage.

    Not sure I understand that.

    My axe is an antique, but I use all the time. I’ve had to replace the handle three times and the head twice, but it’s as good as new!

  121. Phil. (10:26:02) :
    …………..
    “But not one which is consistent with the data.
    http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20080717_Figure5.png

    Thanks for the pic, Phil. It clearly says “estimates” which in the real world is not synonymous with “data”, only in the Hansen-Mann-Gore world.

    yddar (12:32:41) :

    @Silver

    You are right, the Alfred-Wegner-Institut says about the 2008 ice:

    “It cannot be excluded that sea ice is simply mechanically reallocated,” reports Gerdes. “Our model computations show that ice transport from eastern to western Arctic waters caused by wind was an important factor in the great ice-free areas of the Siberian Shelf in the year 2007.”

    Did they really need computer modelling for that?
    Hey, this science stuff is easy, I can do from my comfy chair!

  122. Unlike some of the wailing weenies who have expressed their prejudices about the Polar 5 Basler BT-67, I would buy one as personal transport rather than a Learjet or similar, if I had the money. At $4.5 million plus extras for a completely rebuilt iconic aircraft, it’s a steal. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basler_BT-67

    “Chocks away chaps!”. quoth Captain Flasheart. ” I treat my plane like I treat my women. I climb up into the cockpit and take them to heaven five times a day!”. http://www.baslerturbo.com/

  123. The DC plane:

    “The plane is owned by Kenn Borek Air Ltd., a Calgary-based charter service specializing in Arctic and Antarctic flights.

    Verhoef said plans to complete the aerogravity survey last year were postponed after the DC-3 sustained damage to its landing gear on a flight to Antarctica.

    This spring’s High Arctic flights are expected to be completed by the beginning of May, Verhoef said, adding that late March and April usually offer ideal visibility for researchers and the aircrew.

    “This is the period of the year when it’s clearest,” he said. “If you do it later, flying at low altitude, you might get ice fog, and you might have difficulty flying or landing and taking off.”

    http://www.canada.com/Danish+Canadian+scientists+Arctic+Ocean/1398916/story.html

  124. Pity they didn’t run a survey leg over the Catlin team just to rub it in.

    It looks like they did. This from the Catlin site: “Their spirits were lifted briefly today when they heard the distant engines of a DC3 aircraft overhead. They thought their minds were playing tricks on them, but sure enough a DC3 did indeed fly within 13 miles of their camp”

    The item does not report that they were also measuring the ice thickness… :-)

  125. Frank Lansner

    Creationists and Alarmists seems to share this anti-evidence-routine.

    Both also share the same degree of unwarranted conviction, as if shutting your ears to contrary evidence will make it go away. As Voltaire said: “Doubt is uncomfortable, but certainty is ridiculous.”

  126. yddar (13:13:19) :
    New interview with Steinhage from Alfred-Wegner-Institut:
    …………

    http://www.dradio.de/dlf/sendungen/forschak/958476/

    Google translation:

    “”When the first results was a surprise for my colleagues, that they come from the satellite measurements have noticed that the further expansion of sea ice has declined. On the other hand, they have but there, in regions where they are in the past have ever measured, whereas thicker ice measured. In the extreme case, they have up to 15 meter thick sea ice measured. ”

    What this means is not yet clear. One possibility is that the volume of sea ice still has not increased. The scientists could accidentally when measuring pushed to posts, where the ice by currents, wind drift or is together. Because it’s from the past, relatively few comparative data exist, is difficult to interpret. This allows the geophysicist Steinhage do not rhyme to make the first results.

    “So, I think that this trend exists. But in my view, more interesting question is whether the short-term fluctuation or a long-term. It may well be that the amount of sea ice is constant and that the decreasing surface area by an increase in thickness is compensated. And I have no explanation, what physical process behind it that this is so. “”

    I have already explained it above. The Arctic Sea is dynamic place and the its “frozenness” can not be judged by a single parameter alone. Ice extent, ice volume, wind, currents, albedo must be taken into consideration.

  127. Antony,

    The press release clearly states the 2yr old ice was 2m thick and the aged ice 4m, the quote used from the unamed official has clearly been used out of context.
    Nowhere in the press release do the researchers say that results are not as expected.
    No Measurements where taken at the north pole, indeed the thicker ice measurements where all coastal (around Greenland and the isles) and not taken at the north pole. Seems like a simple case of older ice being melted out of position and drifting according to the prevailing currents to me.

  128. The Google translation of the interview is imperfect, but it is pretty clear that he is open to the interpretation that the thickness increases observed are due to compaction of the second and multi year ice.
    If this is the case, it is not an indication of recovery of Arctic ice.
    He also points out that there is not enough data to indicate a long term trend.

    REPLY: “If” the sea ice extent was declining or static, your opinion might be valid. But Arctic Sea Ice extent is near normal now, and that is not just compaction.

  129. REPLY: “If” the sea ice extent was declining or static, your opinion might be valid. But Arctic Sea Ice extent is near normal now, and that is not just compaction.

    What is under discussion here is multiyear ice. There has been an increase in ice area/extent for the month of April, but that has to be mainly due to the formation of more first year ice. The 2008 minimum ice area and extent were way below the 1979-2000 average and the second lowest on record. The variation in year to year April ice extent is very small. The true test of recovery is in the summer. The area is of importance because of the effect of albedo.

  130. eric (14:20:40) :

    I think you are quite correct about the true test being this summer. Time will tell.

    I myself find I’m drawn to look at the ice extent graph on a daily basis, despite the fact I have concluded it is largely irrelivant, and have concluded much of the discussion about the “ice extent” is balderdash.

    Rather than “ice-melt” I have concluded we should be talking about “ice-flush.” If winds are perfect, a large amount of arctic ice flushes out and down the right shoulder of Greenland. On the other hand, if winds cause polar constipation, there is a plugged toilet and no flushing occurs. Topics such as “ice extent,” “first-year-ice,” “first-and-second-year-ice,” and even the most-high subject of “albedo” are all determined by how well the arctic toilet flushed in the past few years. In conclusion, Ice-extent seems to have more to do with winds than warming.

    I have wasted a lot of time, and annoyed my wife, (who thinks I could make better use of my time,) looking into things such as the driftwood on the shores of the Arctic Ocean, (which, after radio-carbon dating, suggests the Arctic Ocean was reletively ice-free during summers in the reletively recent past, especially when wood from Siberia winds up on the north coast of E. Island.) This has persuaded me that the Arctic Sea goes through “slushy” spells, where it is reletively easy for the correct winds to flush the stuff over and down the right shoulder of Greenland. I assume there are also “rigid” spells, where it is less easy to flush the stuff. (I would use terms such as “constipated” and “laxitive,” but I fear I’ve stretched that particular analogy past the limit of Political Correctness.)

    I used to bring up this topic at cocktail parties in in a most casual manner, stating, “I have a friend who heard someone he knew once met a fellow who studied driftwood up on the shores of the Arctic Ocean…” Everyone frowned at me. The entire room seemed to lean inwards in a most menacing manner. Therefore I decided it was unwise to bring up such topics, even casually, in a Politically Correct setting.

    If you want to “get along,” ( like good old Rodney King,) it is best to avoid disillusioning people who are firmly convinced that ice at the North Pole used to be 75 feet thick, and only recently has become thinner.

    When some fool disturbs such people at a cocktail party, by stating WUWT recently produced photos of submarines surfacing at the North Pole in 1959, you can become amazingly popular and have lots of pretty gals smile at you if you frown at the fellow and state the following:

    Those pictures were forged. Just as Saddam Hussian once convinced the world he had all sorts of terrible weapons, (when in fact he had three pea-shooters and a trained attack-duck,) in 1959 the United States attempted to scare the old Soviet Union by claiming it had submarines surfacing at the North Pole.

    Actually the forged photos were meant more as a taunt than an actual scare-tactic. The United States was convinced the Soviet Union would see through the scam. They were shocked when intellegence indicated the Russians had attempted to surface a sub through 75 feet of ice, crushed the conning tower, and had wound up sinking to the oozy bottom of the Arctic Sea.

    When the sub didn’t return, the Russians assumed it had been sunk by Americans, and sent a fleet of seventeen submarines north. Due to a failure in logistics, all seventeen attempted to surface through 75 feet of ice, and now there are eightteen subs that lie at the bottom of the Arctic Ocean.

    It is the melt-down of the nuclear power-plants within those eighteen nuclear submarines which has led to the thinning of arctic ice. In the near future this thinning will lead to reduced albedo, and run-away Global Warming. The military is trying to hush this up, because they are very ashamed about being untruthful to the Russians in 1959. Being dishonest always lands you in trouble. Just ask Saddam Hussian.

    At this point it is wise to pause and just silently shake your head, at the cocktail party. Look about the room, and gauge how many are swallowing your utter balderdash. A few will be leaning backwards with skeptical expressions, but an amazing number will still be leaning forward, with wide and innocent eyes, and open mouths, lapping it all up.

    Then it is time for your punchline. Writhe, in exaggerated agoney, and ask how God could ALLOW such things to happen! Then raise an index finger and say, with a chuckle, that God knew best. God had to find SOME way to stop the next Ice Age, even if it involved eighteen soviet subs and the downfalls of both Russia and the United States. And so it has happened, you should conclude, but then you should raise a finger again, to add to your PS.

    Say, “I’m sure you will want a link to a site on the internet where what I say is verified by some peer-reviewed document, but the link I shall give you is to a PEERLESS commentator!” (What this means is that you are making everything up, but never admit it.) Then give them the website;

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/28/inconvenient-eisdicken/

    And tell them to scroll down to the comment by “Caleb” towards the end of the May 1st comments.

    Few will bother to do so. Instead a crowd of rather pretty women will surround you and treat you like a hero, as the men at the cocktail party hate your guts.

    So you see, being popular in modern society has nothing to do with plastic surgery or dying your hair or squeezing into designer jeans. All you need to do is suggest the ice at the North Pole was 75 feet thick in 1959, and you’ve got it made!

    Until next summer, that is. When the ice doesn’t flush away, and is in fact thicker, there are going to be some problems at the cocktail parties.

    However we-who-know-how-to-handle-such-situations will surely invent a new breath-taking story to tell.

    (Sarc Off.)

  131. Caleb (19:34:42) :

    With posts like that, this site could simultaneously win the best Comedy blog as well as the best Science blog next year.

    I think I’ll see if that story “breaks the ice at parties” (courtesy of Monty Python) at my next social event in Berkeley.

  132. Subsequent to Anthony’s original post about “Surprising Results”, the Alfred Wegener Institute issued a press release after the Polar 5 mission was finished. It is posted in English here: http://www.awi.de/en/news/press_releases/detail/item/ende_pam_arcmip/?cHash=ff957775e4. A key quote:

    “Multiple flights northwards from various stations showed an ice thickness between 2.5 (two years old ice in the vicinity of the North Pole) and 4 metres (perennial ice in Canadian offshore regions). All in all, the ice was somewhat thicker than during the last years in the same regions, which leads to the conclusion that Arctic ice cover recovers temporarily.”

    Nothing in the press release suggests that the scientists found anything particularly surprising or unexpected, nor is it ever suggested that the results contradict AGW theory. Those claims were made in the Radio Bremen article, not by the Institute itself. The Institute seems to be rather neutral about the Polar 5 results, noting that it will take weeks to analyze the data.

    Several of the comments above made reference to an interview in German in which one of the scientists said his colleagues were “surprised.” However, it seems very unclear from Google and other web translators what exactly they were surprised about. I studied German for two semesters in college and couldn’t make sense out of the scientist’s comment.

    I think the message here is “stay tuned.”

Comments are closed.