Guest post by Steven Goddard
What is Wrong with this Picture?
http://www.ogleearth.com/wissm.jpg
The picture of the Wilkins Ice Shelf cracks is itself fine, and the news media loves it so much that they recycle it every year. The problem is with the interpretation which some people continue to insist on that the ice is “melting.”
A picture is worth a thousand words, so below are a few showing what melting ice actually looks like:
Melting Arctic Ice click for larger image
Polar Bears Showing Off Some Melting Ice in August
Astute WUWT readers may recall seeing the photo above flashed around the world with captions such as “polar bears stranded” on an ice cube at sea. In one case a story even went so far as to suggest they drowned, with no facts to back up the claim. It turns out the “credited” photographer to be a fabrication, and exploitation, please follow this link to the original photographer, Amanda Byrd. See the bottom right photo.
The image was copied from the ships computer (where Byrd had downloaded the camera flash memory stick to) by another member of the shipboard research crew ( Dan Crosbie) and passed on to Environment Canada. Then it was eagerly adopted by many as an example of the fate that awaits the polar bears – including Al Gore, who used the picture as huge projected backdrop in one of his highly lucrative lectures, a conference of human resource executives on March 22, 2007 in Toronto, Canada.
Gore said:
“Their habitat is melting,” “beautiful animals, literally being forced off the planet.”
Audience: [gasp!]
Yes, it melts every summer.
Melting ice is dark, corroded, irregular, wet, thin and rough. Yet the Wilkins picture shows none of those features. The cracked Wilkins Ice is bright, smooth, dry – and has sharp, clean fractures at 90 degree angles to the surface. Nothing in that picture even remotely hints at melting. The interstitial sea water is very cold and is quickly refreezing in the cracks.
NSIDC’s Ted Scambos has proposed a mechanism for ice sheet breakup, where pooling water on the surface seeps down into small cracks in the ice and causes fracturing as the water refreezes.
However, there is no evidence of pooling water on the surface in the Wilkins image above, and it does not sound plausible as a mechanism for making a clean crack 200 metres thick and miles long.
A generally pro-AGW 2005 paper published by the University of Chicago may shed some light on what is really going on with the ice shelves. Ice shelf retreat is cyclical, normal, has little long-term effect, and may happen faster in the winter. What does that have to do with CO2?
Historical records show that large tabular bergs are produced sporadically with typical recurrence times of 50-100 years [Budd, 1966] and despite their large size, appear to have little effect on the long-term ice flow. Unlike the disintegration of parts of the peninsular ice shelves, the production of tabular bergs is part of a normal cycle in which the ice shelf advances beyond its confining embaymentor pinning points and subsequently retreats by calving.
….
Despite this prominent role we know very little about the mechanisms and controlling forces that lead to rift initiation and propagation. This ignorance hinders any attempt to assess accurately how ice sheets will respond to future climate change.
…..
However, two of the three bursts did occur within three days of periods of sustained winds (shaded part of Figure 2c), suggesting there might be some relationship with prolonged winds. If this were the case, we would expect the rift would propagate faster in the winter when the winds are strongest
http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~jbassis/2004GL022048.pdf
Note the authors’ usage of “Unlike the disintegration of parts of the peninsular ice shelves” in the first paragraph. Why does ice on the Antarctic Peninsula behave differently? Perhaps it has become an AGW sacred cow. It is the only place on the continent behaving according to expectations.
The excess area of Antarctic ice is enough to contain more than five Floridas.
Note that the positive ice anomaly is greater now than it was any time prior to 1995. However, 1n 1980 the anomaly was nearly 3,000,000 km2 squared lower – i.e. there was enough ice loss in 1980 (relative to the present) to contain about one third of Europe. Sea ice and cold go hand in hand. Perhaps we need a new term for Antarctic cooling deniers? Something like “Ozone Holers.”
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Some habits can’t be changed!
Just say no to crack!
Brent in Calgary
How about “CARBONISTAS,” a term I’ve seen a few times to describe the moral crusaders out to ensure our compliance with their standards of behavior. But watch out, it’s also a new CD release, featuring such artistic titles as “Murder,” “It’s All F#@ur momisugly%&d Up In Dixie,” and “America Is a Prison.” Skeptics could be sued for plagiarism. I kid you not.
Albert Gore Jr., Ph.D. (Honorary), an eminent Nobel Laureate and climate expert, tells us that you, Anthony, and all your fellow deniers, believe that NASA faked the moon landings.
How can a reasonable person believe you deniers when the evidence presented by Albert Gore Jr., Ph.D. (Honorary), eminent Nobel Laureate and climate expert, is so overwhelming that we have only 3.5 years left before its too late to save the planet from fiery, flooded destruction.
Freezing rebuttors?
Melting believers?
I just KNEW there’d be polar bears.
The undoctored photo of the polar bears may at first look the same but the origional had one of the polar bears milling about like it wasn’t asking for help or was scared of being on that piece of ice, also some nice information of the difference between cracked ice and melting ice, speaking of melting ice the Arctic ice extent is continuing to hold at a position just above 2003.
The disintegration of some ice shelves on the Antarctic Penisula can’t be explained by rising air temperatures and melting caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions. . All of data from the neighbouring weather stations shows no significant warming in summer months between 1950 and 2009. From about 1970 to 1990 there was a very intense warming in the area, but this trend was limited to average winter temperatures. In the last 20 years, the Antarctic penisula is experiencing a warmer period compared to the mid-century average, but shows no warming but a slight cooling trend instead.
Data from Rothera Point, Antarctica
The short version is: “There are some people you can’t help.” The long version: “There are some people you can’t help; they are beyond help, they don’t want YOUR help, they are too stupid to realize they need help, they are too incompetent to utilize the help.” — Dave the Engineer circa 1980
Shorter version:
“…don’t get stuck on stupid” — General Honore, July 2006
Well, that just can’t be, because someone here said “nature doesn’t like straight lines.”
Possibly OT. We can blame it on Swine Flu, or is AGW the cause of Swine Flu, or are swine the the cause of excess methane. (One can possibly concoct a creible correlation between the world’s swine population and global warming) Perhaps we should be marketing Swine Credits?
I can’t remember where I read it, but I read an alarmist article that stated that although the Antarctic Ice is increasing it doesn’t mean that the continent is cooling.
It said something about, increasing warmth which increases the evaporation rate which leads to increasing snowfall, which leads to increasing ice on the continental interior.
Sounds a little too simplified and it contradicts the AGW theory that ice will melt regardless of evaporation,,, but for interest’s sake is there any data showing precipitation trends on the continent?
Alex,
Even if snowfall was increasing in the interior, this discussion is about sea ice. If snow falls on sea water, it melts. Sea ice on the other hand is due to cold temperatures.
And if we don’t hurry up and fix the planet that Albert Gore Jr., Ph.D. (Honorary), an eminent Nobel Laureate and climate expert emphatically waxes into Hurricane Level 5 over, Albert Gore Jr., Ph.D. (Honorary), an eminent Nobel Laureate and climate expert will reboot the models back into Ice Age mode.
Of course, he knew it all along.
Albert Gore Jr., Ph.D. (Honorary), an eminent Nobel Laureate and climate expert knows everything, and was merely trying to save the planet by any means he could.
Roll out the fossilied charcoal briquettes, and throw another model on the barbie.
If sea ice breaks off and travels to warmer waters, it melts, and it lowers the temp of the warmer waters. Spreads the icy love, yes it does.
Have you remembered to burn your mandatory lump of coal to save the planet from Ice Age Doom today? We must all contribute our share of warmth.
Usually the melt scare stories follow the summer season north and south.
The Seasonal Melt Squealers
The Summer Meltmongers
Alex (10:37:22) : “I…read an alarmist article that stated that although the Antarctic Ice is increasing it doesn’t mean that the continent is cooling. It said something about, increasing warmth which increases the evaporation rate which leads to increasing snowfall, which leads to increasing ice on the continental interior…”
Just more Warmist pseudoscience. Evaporation only involves a certain amount of heat, roughly 1000 BTUs per pound of water. That same 1000 BTUs must come back out to form rain, but then you have to get out another 150 BTUs to freeze the rain into snow. The supposed increase in warmth might evaporate more water if it were real, but how do they account for the ice? Well, of course, they can’t.
Freezing ice cracks. Those New Englanders who live next to ponds can attest to the booms and cracks on clear, cold nights. As the water under the ice freezes, it expands, and cracks the ice above. The tearing race of a crack a few miles long is a memorable sound. This process of cracking and expanding causes the thick ice to rise off the shallows, creating a shelf of ice at the pond edge.
In large bodies of water, where wind and currents also press the ice into motion, normal freeze cracking can open a lead as well.
Regarding the long straight cracks, it suggests a “grain” to the ice much like is exploited in granite and marble quarrying. The three directions of quarrying are known as the 1) rift (easy way- in granites usually subhorizontal fracturing or sheet fracturing) 2) grain or run – commonly vertical direction of relatively easy split often marked by natural joints in the rock and due to partial preferred orientation of mineral crystals with strong crystal cleavage direction oriented in long dimension of the crystal. 3) the “hardway” the direction across the grain at right angles where the stone resists breaking (like across wood grain). The rift in granite is the result of removal of lithostatic compressive strain by erosion of often many kilometres of covering rock. In the case of the antarctic ice shelf, the rift as such isn’t present but the water ice interface at the bottom serves this “quarrying” purpose. In the photos of long bars of ice, these appear to have broken along the “grain” and, because of the “hardway” direction at right angles being especially strong, the ice blocks are exceedingly long. It is clear that no geologist or engineer has studied the texture of the ice and the nature of its crystalization. The antarctic research people appear to lack this part of the discipline. Re the crystal direction, with aging and movement it likely causes recrystallization with longer dimensions of ice crystals at right angles to the compressive forces in the direction of flow of the glacial ice. lifting the the ice by a swell in the sea, progressing shoreward would flex the shelf upward and then bend it downward when it retreats and the ice breaks along the “grain” direction. I think a nice PhD thesis would be to do textural analysis of ice cap ice, smaller glaciers, sea ice etc. to understand the fracturing features. Here is a great little video and pictures granite quarring in Vermont – the rift is the horizontal fractures, the area showing drill hole marks are the grain along which the blocks are broken away from the quarry face using wedges or light explosives. The hardway is either sawn or drill holes and wedges are more closely spaced : http://www.rockofages.com/en/quarry-blocks
Don’t they just look like ice!?
I find it helpful to remind people that polar bears are classified as marine mammals. The image of seals hauled out on ice bergs is not quite as alarming.
“The reason that the Antarctic Peninsula frequently has disintegrating ice shelves is because this is the area where the warmer South Pacific currents hit the Antarctic Peninsula.”…..from the link on WUWT (17-04-09): The Antarctic Wilkins Ice Shelf Collapse.
Ice flows as it builds depth. Heads downhill, to the sea if necessary.
The onus to prove otherwise lies with the crack-alarmists, and nowhere else.
Let them claim anything they wish, as they do: They just admitted to spreading. Spreading is due to flow from excessive depth, seeks lower state.
Even hot lava does this, seeks lower angle of repose.
Prove the spreading is not due to increased depth beyond angle of repose.
It’s thier claim. It’s their responsibility to prove.
Interesting answer, thanks Jorge.
Steven Goddard:
“Even if snowfall was increasing in the interior, this discussion is about sea ice. If snow falls on sea water, it melts. Sea ice on the other hand is due to cold temperatures.”
True that, their argument also however, includes the idea that the increased buildup of this snow on the interior leads to increased glacial flow to the ocean, hence more glacial ice around the coastal ice sheets.
I believe that the data generally does show cooling, but it is interesting to hear what people have to say about why there is more ice.
I wonder if Al lies awake at night worrying about the size of his carbon footprint or whether he and Tipper should not have had all their kids ?
I doubt it somehow, the green movement gone mad has a lot to answer for.
“The stakes are higher for his wife, Mimi. He says having a second child could have too high an environmental cost. “We’ve had the discussion of, ‘If we have another biological child, it means we never fly,'” plus doing other things to offset the child’s carbon footprint, said Mimi Ikle-Khalsa. “I’m 40, so my clock is going Boom! Boom! Boom! Sometimes I just roll my eyes and go, ‘Come on, honey, think about who our child could be!'”
http://www.startribune.com/nation/43652517.html?page=1&c=y
Francis,
HTML links and research papers don’t cause ice to crack. There needs to be an actual physical mechanism.