Usually, and that means in the past year, when you look at the false color MDI image from SOHO, you can look at the corresponding magnetogram and see some sort of disturbance going on, even it it is not visible as a sunspot, sunspeck, or plage area.
Not today.
Left: SOHO MDI “visible” image Right: SOHO Magnetogram
Click for larger image
Wherefore art though, cycle 24?
In contrast, September 28th, 2001
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I was thinking about that yesterday. The Sun is completely inert at its surface.
Hello Mr. A.Watts, I’m an Italian boy,and every day i read your blog… i have created a my blog http://daltonsminima.wordpress.com , his name is new ice age! Many of my article comes from your blog, and Italian people are very interested on my project, as you i believe that the sun is the most important forcing in the climate change! My compliments Mr. Watts,and excuse me for my English… Simon from Pesaro (Italy)
REPLY: Simon, grazie! Best of luck on your new venture. Folks lets hit the link above to give this lad some encouragement. – Anthony
Though?
Thank you very much Anthony…you have to continue your “war”, the the truth you will be right!
simon
Molto bravo, Simone! Cera bisogno di un sito in Italiano!
The sun is quiet, but there are other factors that are involved in climate. The cool PDO shift is likely more responsible for the current cooling trend than the quiet sun. Care needs to be utilized to make rational determinations of cause and effect. While the quiet sun is a once in a lifetime event, everything needs to be considered. Don’t focus too heavily on the sun or you may miss the real drivers of climate.
In bocca il lupo, Simon…
Sorry, no habla Italian. However, Your sight looks great and I wish you all the best. I will check back regularly.
Well, I know Leif will be by, so one question I would love to pose is as follows:
If the sun’s effects are minimal on temperature, why the difference in day/night temperatures?
The sun is quiet, but there are other factors that are involved in climate. The cool PDO shift is likely more responsible for the current cooling trend than the quiet sun.
===
I’ll bite.
If the PDO/AMO/El None/La Nina drive year-to-year temperature rises and falls, WHAT changes/energizes/starts/stops the PDO/AMO/El None/La Nina variations?
captdallas2,
Has it ever occured to you that the undrelying mechanism that drives the PDO
may be indirectly linked a mechanism that drives solar activity?
If you want evidence backing up this arguement, please read my presentation
at:
http://www.lavoisier.com.au/articles/greenhouse-science/solar-cycles/IanwilsonForum2008.pdf
The details of the paper backing this presentation have been translated into Russian by Dr. Anatoly Kchlystov from Sternberg Astronomical Institute.
It will be prepared for publication in Book “Global Change”, coming out
later this year.
Anthony,
Maybe you should add a “Clock” to your site. Something like
Sun Cycle 23–only 243 days before it becomes the longest cycle ever recorded
—and counting
or something along those lines.
I’ve been on the Italian site it’s good to know the word is spreading keep up the good work.
Robert Wood (14:08:14) : You wrote: The Sun is completely inert at its surface.
Hold on now! Don’t leave the sun-blocker at home. Ol’Sol is still pumping out a lot of energy. Have a look at some other wavelengths:
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime-images.html
Wherefore art thou #24, indeed. . . .
hmmm. . .
A day or even a week or likely even a month of total solar quiet in both the visible and magnetogram spectrums does not I suppose provide conclusive evidence that we have entered a major ”outside-the-standard-deviation” solar event.
But: I wonder:
How long would both the MDI and magnetogram images have to remain in more-or-less this ”nobody home” state; before experts in this area (not me) would start to talk about there being a reasonable chance that we could be entering another solar event along the lines of a Dalton Minimum or even a Maunder Minimum. Admit I ask before don’t have a feel for what criteria scientists would use to base such a ”crossing the threshold” conclusion on. Since IIRC the Maunder Minimum lasted about 50 years and the Dalton Minimum considerably less than that, I’m pretty confident this ”window” is considerably less than 10 years. But how much more than we have so far I don’t know ??. . .
Just curious. . . .
I don’t know any ethnic Chinese, so I wonder who laid the: “May you live in interesting times” on me?
Maunder?
Dalton?
Sporer?
Whatever. Bring it on!
oops:
What I meant to say in my above was:
”Admit I ask because don’t have . . . .”
not ”before don’t have”.
Sorry.
Ohioholic (15:21:29) : Just in case Leif doesn’t pick up on your question, I think his issue is with the small variation in TSI, not whether or not it is in the ON position. Further, it is in the ON position over one-half Earth at all times. And, the issues is not the temps during a 24 hour day at one spot.
After I submitted my last, I took a look at Simon’s ice2020. He has a shot from late 3/21 (22:24) of SOHO showing a small sunspeck on the upper left. He has IDed it as cycle 23, but I believe the high latitute indicates cycle 24, correct? Or did NASA cancel 24 after all?
I wish I could poll the astrophysicists to see where they stand regarding Svendsmark’s theory. I know this astrophysicist, Nir Shaviv, believes cosmic rays have a primary role in our climate: http://www.sciencebits.com/CosmicRaysClimate
I am amazed at how people think that the sun’s changes “cannot” be a major factor influencing the earth’s temperature (and, by effect, climate). This is the only way the earth receives any of the heat it has!
John F. Hultquist (16:16:17) :
Hmm…. I must have misread or pulled an Andy Pettite style ‘misremembering’ of what he said then. This is definitely possible given the workload I have been under lately. Come to think of it, I may not even be thinking of the same person, but attributed it to Leif for some reason. I’m sure he’ll let me know, hopefully in a nice way. 🙂
Before you know it, it’ll be SC25 time creeping up on us while 24 keeps on limping along. Perhaps 24 will be lucky to even peak at 50/month before it fizzles out around — what’s that date again? — 2015. Best make sure I have a few pair of long johns handy…
Anthony,
Dr. Henrik Svensmark’s theory on the “Influence of Cosmic Rays on the earth’s climate”
http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/influence-of-cosmic-rays-on-the-earth.pdf
predicts an increase in incident galactic cosmic rays hitting the earth’s atmosphere leading to an increase in cloud cover and a corresponding increase in the earth’s albedo.
Referring back to your 17 October 2007 post titled “Earth’s Albedo Tells an Interesting Story” and to the Earthshine project page
http://www.bbso.njit.edu/Research/EarthShine/
The earth’s albedo has increased.
The Earthshine project aims to determine “a global and absolutely calibrated albedo … by measuring the amount of sunlight reflected from the Earth and, in turn, back to the Earth from the dark portion of the face of the Moon.”
The following graphic
shows in blue the Earthshine changes in albedo from 1999 to 2007.
The following is from the conclusion of a paper that can be found here:
http://bbso.njit.edu/Research/EarthShine/literature/Palle_etal_2008_JGR.pdf
“However, preceding CERES, earthshine and ISCCP-FD reflectances show a significant increase before flattening and holding the increase. This implies a reduction in the net sunlight reaching Earth. In the context of the recent climate change, it is important to point out that the physical causes behind these large decadal variations in albedo are still unknown, and that we just don’t know yet whether we should expect the albedo changes observed during the modern period to persist into the future.
Further, we have demonstrated that the trend toward an increasing terrestrial albedo seen in the earthshine is due to evolving cloud properties, rather than sampling problems or issues arising from the Sun-Earth-Moon geometry. Future observations of the earthshine from a planned global network of robotic telescopes will provide an even more valuable tool, complementary to satellite data, for the study of changes in the short-wave forcing of the Earth’s climate. The first robotic telescope is already in regular operation.”
Interesting.
–Mike Ramsey
I think I see the sunspeck too, see:
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_mag/512/ then
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_igr/512/ or better:
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_igr/1024/latest.jpg
Image time 2224.
REPLY: Yup, no sooner than I posted this, one appeared. Thats Murphy for ya! – Anthony
Hmmmmm, on my arbitrary time axis sun activity is inversely proportional to our carbon emissions. Clearly humans are to blame for this impending catatrosphe.