WUWT has participated for the last two years, and I’ll post up a poll for the WUWT submission tomorrow. In the meantime, you can get a look at the current state of the Arctic Sea Ice at the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page.
Japan Graphic: Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) – International Arctic Research Center (IARC) – Click the pic to view at source
2 May 2013
Call for 2013 Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
June Report (Based on May Data)
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)
Pan-Arctic and Regional Outlook submission deadline: Friday, 7 June 2013
——————–
The Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) Sea Ice Outlook (SIO)
organizers are pleased to announce the launch of the 2013 SIO season.
The SEARCH SIO is an international project that provides a monthly
synthesis of estimates of the September arctic sea ice minimum:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook
We are now soliciting pan-arctic and regional outlooks for the first
report of the season, the June report (based on May data). We encourage
past and new contributors to participate. The submission deadline is
Friday, 7 June 2013 and all submissions should be sent to Helen Wiggins,
ARCUS, at helen@arcus.org. Submission guidelines are below.
SUBMITTING A PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK
Pan-arctic Outlook contributions should include:
1. Extent Projection
Provide a sea ice projection for the September monthly mean arctic sea
ice extent (in million square kilometers). Please also include any
relevant information on ice thickness (or age), if available.
2. Methods/Techniques
Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model
ensemble runs, etc.).
3. Rationale
Include a short paragraph on the physical rationale for the estimate.
4. Executive Summary
Provide a short paragraph that summarizes your outlook contribution in
two or three sentences.
5. Estimate of Forecast Skill (if available)
If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill,
uncertainty, or error associated with your prediction. Error estimates
are included in the summary bar chart of outlook estimates, as
appropriate.
SUBMITTING A REGIONAL OUTLOOK
Regional Outlook contributions should include:
1. Region of Interest
While more specific sub-regions may be identified, at a minimum, please
specify which of the following the outlook applies to:
Arctic Regions:
– Beaufort-Chukchi Seas
– East Siberian-Laptev Seas
– Kara-Barents-Greenland Seas
– Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Nares Strait
– Hudson Bay
– Sea of Okhotsk
– Bering Sea
Shipping Routes:
– Northwest Passage
– Northeast Passage (Northern Sea Route)
– Arctic Bridge (Murmansk-Churchill)
2. Sea Ice Parameter
Provide a regional pattern or a single value estimate of phonological
stages (i.e., melt onset, freeze onset, break-up and freeze-up dates,
length of open water season) or monthly ice concentration, ice area, and
ice extent. Please indicate whether you expect ice conditions to be
similar, lighter (i.e., lower ice concentrations, earlier melt onset,
earlier break-up, later freeze-up), or heavier (i.e., greater ice
concentrations, later melt onset, later break-up, earlier freeze-up)
than those of summer 2012.
3. Outline of Methods/Techniques
Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model,
traditional knowledge, etc.) with a brief description of the methodology
and a short paragraph describing the physical rationale for the estimate.
4. Estimate of Forecast Skill
If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill,
uncertainty, or error associated with your prediction.
5. Improving Outlook Detail and Accuracy (Optional)
What information would be needed to improve the level of detail provided
in your Regional Outlook or increase the accuracy/confidence in your
prediction?
**ALL Outlook submissions should be sent directly to Helen Wiggins,
ARCUS, at helen@arcus.org, with the following subject lines, as
relevant:**
PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK – [YOUR LAST NAME]
REGIONAL OUTLOOK – [YOUR LAST NAME]
OUTLOOK FOR BOTH REGIONAL AND PAN-ARCTIC – [YOUR LAST NAME]
An MS Word document is preferred for ease of formatting to PDF files and
extracting images for the website – we will not edit your individual
submission and will not post your Word documents.
Pan-Arctic and Regional Outlook submission deadline: Friday, 7 June 2013.
For further information on the Sea Ice Outlook, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook
Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen@arcus.org
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No surprise that the Alarmosphere attacks the proposition that the 2012 melt was aggravated by the gigantic August storm:
http://alaska-native-news.com/arctic_news/7679-cyclone-did-not-cause-2012-record-low-for-arctic-sea-ice.html
In a cooling world, will more such storms occur, as the latitudinal temperature gradient gets more pronounced?
Lots of rotten ice this year. 4.7
No need for more research – UK Met Office says the fall in Arctic sea ice extent is “unprecedented”.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/cold-spring-2013
It’s unprecedented!
It’s never been this normal!
Looks like the current sea ice extent is in the upper echelon, but that’s no surprise–I woke up to ice on an inverted canoe I had out in the back yard (lawn sprinklers were going last night, which was clear and still).
But then, that’s not atypical for late spring in SE Idaho, and why smart people around here don’t plant their gardens until the third week of June.
5.5. The graph looks like a rebuilding is starting.
Ian Evans says:
June 3, 2013 at 10:14 am
5.5. The graph looks like a rebuilding is starting.
________________
I’ll see your 5.5 and raise you 200,000 square Kilometers…
5.7
I’d have guessed higher, but you know those pesky Russians and their icebreakers…
It’s now very close to where it was last year. And while I don’t think it will go as low as last year, I don’t believe it will stay anywhere as high as before 2007 when arctic shifted to the current regime.
In my opinion it will go lower than 2011 but maybe not as low as 2007.
It would not surprise me at all if it is north of 6.0 this year, has gone from last place in January, into the lead in late May… not bad.
I have found that the Arctic always seems to perform non-linearly in the short term, but behaves well in the long term. I suggest that there will be a good bit more ice that last hear, and my number is 5.36.
Faites vos jeux.
My number is 6.66.
That’ll stir’em up.
http://i292.photobucket.com/albums/mm3/arketebel/Untitled.jpg
Here is a link to a graph showing the low point of Arctic Ice Extent from 1978-2012. Use it to help you make an educated guess for 2013 so WUWT can win. I’m going with 4.7
Last years was the perfect storm for melting ice. All during the spring/summer the winds were pushing the ice toward the N. Atlantic, the AMO was about as high as it gets, the very warm US brought warm water flowing into the N. Atlantic and then the August storm. The fact is the storm probably wasn’t the biggest factor.
Now, this year we have seen more circumpolar winds, the AMO is still positive but half what it was last year, it’s been a cool spring in the US … but, most of ice is still first year ice and thinner than it would be otherwise.
4.9
I am going to go with 6.5. Rationale: I want to see Lief Svalgard’s hair like I got to see the other Stanford Physicists. Maybe if I am right he will put his picture online.
5.3.
The August 2012 wind event is not something we get every year.
I’m with Wayne, just over 6.
but darn , I would love to see the warmists faces if it came in at say 7 or even 8 ! 🙂
4.7 some regrowth, but not a lot.
With the abundance of new ice (which will disappear very quickly IMO) created after last season’s record melt and the amount of yellow and red already showing up this year, I think it will not be a good year for the ice. Looks like I will be the outlier here as I predict a 3.55 minimum by late Sept. I do look for a slow increase in the yearly minimums for the next several years however after this one
Michael Jennings says:
June 3, 2013 at 2:20 pm
“With the abundance of new ice (which will disappear very quickly IMO) created after last season’s record melt and the amount of yellow and red already showing up this year, I think it will not be a good year for the ice. Looks like I will be the outlier here as I predict a 3.55 minimum by late Sept. I do look for a slow increase in the yearly minimums for the next several years however after this one</i?"
__________________
Don't forget that the Arctic ice re-froze very quickly. There wasn't time for all of the storm's resultant slush to be ejected through the Fram Strait before it refroze.
Here is my forecast from 10 days ago in an argument with ‘believers’….
goldminor replied 10 days ago
#1.9
comment author avatar
You
Member
In reply to: Physicist-retired #1.8 I figured big boys like you would know what I meant by ‘6’. That would be 6 as in 6 mil on the NSIDC chart that is put out daily. Last year dipped to around 3.25 mil. I am saying that the loss will stop around 6 mil. Now we have to wait until September to find out. Any prediction on your side that you would like to make
I,m glad this post was seeded. It made me take another look with additional information recently acquired since then. The neutron monitor index had caught my attention in that it seems to have a direct correlation to the rise and fall of surface sea temps and sea temps down to 100m. So today after seeing this post, I went to the NSIDC page and pulled up their interactive chart. The years 1983 1990. 1992, 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2006 were all at or above 6 million km2, with the exception of 2004 and 2006 which dipped slightly below the 6 mil line. All of those years fit into the low peaks of the neutron monitor graph. Galactic cosmic rays have an effect. As far as I can picture in my thoughts from looking at the neutron graph, I would say that it is going to drop this year towards another low in early next year. What effect a dropping graph line will have for this melt versus the low point is hard to guesstimate. There is daily info on that chart from…http://www.nwu.ac.za/neutron-monitor-data.
davidgmills says:
June 3, 2013 at 1:36 pm
I am going to go with 6.5. Rationale: I want to see Lief Svalgard’s hair like I got to see the other Stanford Physicists. Maybe if I am right he will put his picture online.
_____________________
it’s probably windblown like the dickens, with his long commute to Palo Alto
The CBC told me that climate scientists told them that it would be 0 (zero) next year, so that should make this year around 2 based on a linear trend. I will be rather upset if it isn’t around 2 this year. 😉
I will be plotting the trend from last years low once this years low has been reached, and compare to the CBC contrived trend.
In reality I’ve discovered that it is neigh impossible to predict arctic ice. I’m looking forward to the poll for my prediction this year.
I check the ice reference page every single day. It’s a lot like watching grass grow.