SEARCH sea ice contest, call for contributions

WUWT has participated for the last two years, and I’ll post up a poll for the WUWT submission tomorrow. In the meantime, you can get a look at the current state of the Arctic Sea Ice at the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page.

Japan Graphic: Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) – International Arctic Research Center (IARC) – Click the pic to view at source

2 May 2013

Call for 2013 Sea Ice Outlook Contributions

June Report (Based on May Data)

Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)

Pan-Arctic and Regional Outlook submission deadline: Friday, 7 June 2013

——————–

The Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) Sea Ice Outlook (SIO)

organizers are pleased to announce the launch of the 2013 SIO season.

The SEARCH SIO is an international project that provides a monthly

synthesis of estimates of the September arctic sea ice minimum:

http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook

We are now soliciting pan-arctic and regional outlooks for the first

report of the season, the June report (based on May data). We encourage

past and new contributors to participate. The submission deadline is

Friday, 7 June 2013 and all submissions should be sent to Helen Wiggins,

ARCUS, at helen@arcus.org. Submission guidelines are below.

SUBMITTING A PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK

Pan-arctic Outlook contributions should include:

1. Extent Projection

Provide a sea ice projection for the September monthly mean arctic sea

ice extent (in million square kilometers). Please also include any

relevant information on ice thickness (or age), if available.

2. Methods/Techniques

Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model

ensemble runs, etc.).

3. Rationale

Include a short paragraph on the physical rationale for the estimate.

4. Executive Summary

Provide a short paragraph that summarizes your outlook contribution in

two or three sentences.

5. Estimate of Forecast Skill (if available)

If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill,

uncertainty, or error associated with your prediction. Error estimates

are included in the summary bar chart of outlook estimates, as

appropriate.

SUBMITTING A REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Regional Outlook contributions should include:

1. Region of Interest

While more specific sub-regions may be identified, at a minimum, please

specify which of the following the outlook applies to:

Arctic Regions:

– Beaufort-Chukchi Seas

– East Siberian-Laptev Seas

– Kara-Barents-Greenland Seas

– Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Nares Strait

– Hudson Bay

– Sea of Okhotsk

– Bering Sea

Shipping Routes:

– Northwest Passage

– Northeast Passage (Northern Sea Route)

– Arctic Bridge (Murmansk-Churchill)

2. Sea Ice Parameter

Provide a regional pattern or a single value estimate of phonological

stages (i.e., melt onset, freeze onset, break-up and freeze-up dates,

length of open water season) or monthly ice concentration, ice area, and

ice extent. Please indicate whether you expect ice conditions to be

similar, lighter (i.e., lower ice concentrations, earlier melt onset,

earlier break-up, later freeze-up), or heavier (i.e., greater ice

concentrations, later melt onset, later break-up, earlier freeze-up)

than those of summer 2012.

3. Outline of Methods/Techniques

Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model,

traditional knowledge, etc.) with a brief description of the methodology

and a short paragraph describing the physical rationale for the estimate.

4. Estimate of Forecast Skill

If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill,

uncertainty, or error associated with your prediction.

5. Improving Outlook Detail and Accuracy (Optional)

What information would be needed to improve the level of detail provided

in your Regional Outlook or increase the accuracy/confidence in your

prediction?

**ALL Outlook submissions should be sent directly to Helen Wiggins,

ARCUS, at helen@arcus.org, with the following subject lines, as

relevant:**

PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK – [YOUR LAST NAME]

REGIONAL OUTLOOK – [YOUR LAST NAME]

OUTLOOK FOR BOTH REGIONAL AND PAN-ARCTIC – [YOUR LAST NAME]

An MS Word document is preferred for ease of formatting to PDF files and

extracting images for the website – we will not edit your individual

submission and will not post your Word documents.

Pan-Arctic and Regional Outlook submission deadline: Friday, 7 June 2013.

For further information on the Sea Ice Outlook, please go to:

http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook

Or contact:

Helen Wiggins, ARCUS

Email: helen@arcus.org

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milodonharlani

No surprise that the Alarmosphere attacks the proposition that the 2012 melt was aggravated by the gigantic August storm:
http://alaska-native-news.com/arctic_news/7679-cyclone-did-not-cause-2012-record-low-for-arctic-sea-ice.html
In a cooling world, will more such storms occur, as the latitudinal temperature gradient gets more pronounced?

Jared

Lots of rotten ice this year. 4.7

Mardler

No need for more research – UK Met Office says the fall in Arctic sea ice extent is “unprecedented”.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/cold-spring-2013

It’s unprecedented!
It’s never been this normal!

RockyRoad

Looks like the current sea ice extent is in the upper echelon, but that’s no surprise–I woke up to ice on an inverted canoe I had out in the back yard (lawn sprinklers were going last night, which was clear and still).
But then, that’s not atypical for late spring in SE Idaho, and why smart people around here don’t plant their gardens until the third week of June.

Ian Evans

5.5. The graph looks like a rebuilding is starting.

Luther Wu

Ian Evans says:
June 3, 2013 at 10:14 am
5.5. The graph looks like a rebuilding is starting.
________________
I’ll see your 5.5 and raise you 200,000 square Kilometers…
5.7

Luther Wu

I’d have guessed higher, but you know those pesky Russians and their icebreakers…

Kasuha

It’s now very close to where it was last year. And while I don’t think it will go as low as last year, I don’t believe it will stay anywhere as high as before 2007 when arctic shifted to the current regime.
In my opinion it will go lower than 2011 but maybe not as low as 2007.

wayne

It would not surprise me at all if it is north of 6.0 this year, has gone from last place in January, into the lead in late May… not bad.

Tucker

I have found that the Arctic always seems to perform non-linearly in the short term, but behaves well in the long term. I suggest that there will be a good bit more ice that last hear, and my number is 5.36.

Mike McMillan

Faites vos jeux.

John Silver

My number is 6.66.
That’ll stir’em up.

Jared

http://i292.photobucket.com/albums/mm3/arketebel/Untitled.jpg
Here is a link to a graph showing the low point of Arctic Ice Extent from 1978-2012. Use it to help you make an educated guess for 2013 so WUWT can win. I’m going with 4.7

Richard M

Last years was the perfect storm for melting ice. All during the spring/summer the winds were pushing the ice toward the N. Atlantic, the AMO was about as high as it gets, the very warm US brought warm water flowing into the N. Atlantic and then the August storm. The fact is the storm probably wasn’t the biggest factor.
Now, this year we have seen more circumpolar winds, the AMO is still positive but half what it was last year, it’s been a cool spring in the US … but, most of ice is still first year ice and thinner than it would be otherwise.
4.9

davidgmills

I am going to go with 6.5. Rationale: I want to see Lief Svalgard’s hair like I got to see the other Stanford Physicists. Maybe if I am right he will put his picture online.

James at 48

5.3.
The August 2012 wind event is not something we get every year.

AndyG55

I’m with Wayne, just over 6.

AndyG55

but darn , I would love to see the warmists faces if it came in at say 7 or even 8 ! 🙂

Roy UK

4.7 some regrowth, but not a lot.

Michael Jennings

With the abundance of new ice (which will disappear very quickly IMO) created after last season’s record melt and the amount of yellow and red already showing up this year, I think it will not be a good year for the ice. Looks like I will be the outlier here as I predict a 3.55 minimum by late Sept. I do look for a slow increase in the yearly minimums for the next several years however after this one

Luther Wu

Michael Jennings says:
June 3, 2013 at 2:20 pm
With the abundance of new ice (which will disappear very quickly IMO) created after last season’s record melt and the amount of yellow and red already showing up this year, I think it will not be a good year for the ice. Looks like I will be the outlier here as I predict a 3.55 minimum by late Sept. I do look for a slow increase in the yearly minimums for the next several years however after this one</i?"
__________________
Don't forget that the Arctic ice re-froze very quickly. There wasn't time for all of the storm's resultant slush to be ejected through the Fram Strait before it refroze.

Here is my forecast from 10 days ago in an argument with ‘believers’….
goldminor replied 10 days ago
#1.9
comment author avatar
You
Member
In reply to: Physicist-retired #1.8 I figured big boys like you would know what I meant by ‘6’. That would be 6 as in 6 mil on the NSIDC chart that is put out daily. Last year dipped to around 3.25 mil. I am saying that the loss will stop around 6 mil. Now we have to wait until September to find out. Any prediction on your side that you would like to make
I,m glad this post was seeded. It made me take another look with additional information recently acquired since then. The neutron monitor index had caught my attention in that it seems to have a direct correlation to the rise and fall of surface sea temps and sea temps down to 100m. So today after seeing this post, I went to the NSIDC page and pulled up their interactive chart. The years 1983 1990. 1992, 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2006 were all at or above 6 million km2, with the exception of 2004 and 2006 which dipped slightly below the 6 mil line. All of those years fit into the low peaks of the neutron monitor graph. Galactic cosmic rays have an effect. As far as I can picture in my thoughts from looking at the neutron graph, I would say that it is going to drop this year towards another low in early next year. What effect a dropping graph line will have for this melt versus the low point is hard to guesstimate. There is daily info on that chart from…http://www.nwu.ac.za/neutron-monitor-data.

Luther Wu

davidgmills says:
June 3, 2013 at 1:36 pm
I am going to go with 6.5. Rationale: I want to see Lief Svalgard’s hair like I got to see the other Stanford Physicists. Maybe if I am right he will put his picture online.
_____________________
it’s probably windblown like the dickens, with his long commute to Palo Alto

The CBC told me that climate scientists told them that it would be 0 (zero) next year, so that should make this year around 2 based on a linear trend. I will be rather upset if it isn’t around 2 this year. 😉
I will be plotting the trend from last years low once this years low has been reached, and compare to the CBC contrived trend.
In reality I’ve discovered that it is neigh impossible to predict arctic ice. I’m looking forward to the poll for my prediction this year.
I check the ice reference page every single day. It’s a lot like watching grass grow.

See - owe to Rich

Hey guys, you haven’t even been asked for guesses yet! Still, interesting to see the spread already.
For those who think the August 2012 storm made little difference, I have to disagree. Divide and conquer. Before the storm the central Arctic ice was in one piece. Afterwards it was split into two, with a huge amount of it sent across to the Siberian coast. And there it melted.
I’m not going to guess yet, I mean tell you my wonderfully scientific prediction, but I predict that my estimate will be in the high 4’s.
Rich.

The 2 years of 1983 and 1992 {which should be stated as 1991 also in above comment} are the 2 lowest points on the neutron monitor graph and they are also the 2 highest Arctic ice extents at 7.2 mil. Only the year 1980 shows above 1983, 1992. That also shows a low peak prior to obtaining a new low 3 years later in 1983.

AlexS

Wasn’t the way Arctic Ice was measured changed recently?

Based on my theory of embedded black carbon melt, and my belief that it reached a maximum last year, I’ll go with a significant increase, at 5.2 million.

Dinostratus

. Extent Projection
The bearing straight is already de-iced. North of Norway it’s open too. Ice is thin north of Siberia. Not going to be a good year. Probably worse than 2007. Maybe worse than 2012. My eyeball says 3.7e6sqkm.
2. Methods/Techniques
A complex physiological model involving the trapezius, splenious cirvisus and rectus muscles.
3. Rationale
Key regions that lead to a small ice extent are already ice free.
4. Executive Summary
It looks bad.
5. Estimate of Forecast Skill (if available)
This is my third (or fourth) year doing this and a more accurate and empirical estimate will be made when the extent falls below 8e6sqkm but, for now, the precursors don’t look good.

Gerry Parker

3.527e6 sq km
Observing the past few years it is very difficult for less than 2 meter ice to survive, and it appears that only about 1/3 of the extent today exceeds 2 meter thickness. Thus a simple calculation based on total extent today divided by 3.
Until the warm NA current cools a bit, the melts are simply going to continue to be brutal (not necessarily bad news for those of use who embrace a warmer winter.

Dale

I’m going to go with 4.1 this year. Whenever there is a big dip in the record, it usually bounces back to the previous record low for a couple years before doing another big dip. That’s how I’m looking at it anyways.

BTW, it looks very much like last year’s Antarctic sea ice extent record (at maximum) will be broken again this year, by quite a large margin. We are currently about 500,000 sq km ahead of last year.

1. Extent Projection
September monthly mean: 6 million square kilometers
2. Methods/Techniques: Intuition and educated guess.
3. Rationale
A.) Water south of Bering Strait and around Europe is colder than normal, which suggests surface currents feeding into the arctic will cool the above-normal waters north of the Bering Strait and north of Scandinavia.
B.) Cold spring means northern rivers feeding into the arctic will be colder than they were last year, especially north of Canada and Alaska.
C.) DMI “Temperatures above 80 degrees north” graph shows temperatures persistently below normal, despite above normal water temperatures surrounding the arctic ice.
D.) DMI “Ice extent 30% or higher” graph shows ice extent at highest levels for this date since 2005.
E.) I don’t expect a major arctic storm this summer, and do expect a more zonal flow until blocking resumes in October.
4. Executive Summary
I expected a swift early ice-melt, due to warmth over Greenland and Northeast Canada caused by the spring’s blocking pattern, but expect a slow-down of ice melt that will be surprising to many, once the factors I listed above set in.
5. Estimate of Forecast Skill (if available)
Very poor last year, but decent the two preceding years. All my guesses have been too high. Last year I was astonished to see open water appear so early, east of Ellesmere Island, and then late summer arctic gale made mincemeat of my forecast.

Camburn

3.7 sqk

thelastdemocrat

Zero.
Y’all were lucky to have enough for a snow cone last year. If the last few polar bears and a combination force of greenpeace activists and Curtis Swila berets were not out there to protect what remained of the ice, it would have been toally hijacked for Thirstbusters.There are so many SUVs driving around here that the ice is sure to be gone this year.
I am getting my kayak ready.

Steve from Rockwood

5.2 million. I’ve been wrong every year so I’m feelin lucky.

Jim G

6.2mm sq km. I suspect that when all of those AGW climate science lemmings swim out to sea this year they will not drown as they will have ice to walk upon.

kadaka (KD Knoebel)

And my last comment, made over half an hour ago, dropped even further than the moderation basket, and disappeared into the pit of spam, with no evidence of it ever have being sent but an URL with a comment number.
Shall it ever be seen again?
[Reply: Sorry, but there’s nothing in the Spam bucket. It’s always a good idea to save your comment unti it’s posted. — mod.]

kadaka (KD Knoebel)

Found in my comment on June 3, 2013 at 7:41 pm:

[Reply: Sorry, but there’s nothing in the Spam bucket. It’s always a good idea to save your comment unti it’s posted. — mod.]

I save comment, its URL, and data and time as they show up.
Reposting in a moment, let’s see if it makes it…

kadaka (KD Knoebel)

From davidgmills on June 3, 2013 at 1:36 pm:

I want to see Lief Svalgard’s hair like I got to see the other Stanford Physicists. Maybe if I am right he will put his picture online.

Obligatory correction, previously posted in the Comments of that piece: Kaku is a theoretical physicist, but I was mistaken, he was not Stanford.
As to Leif’s picture, you can Google it. Re-verifying his hairstyle (it’s been posted on WUWT before in a group pic) was part of the research:

http://solarimg.org/?p=3096
SolarIMG podcast with Dr. Leif Svalgaard
by SolarIMG on September 27th, 2012 at 12:54 pm
http://solarimg.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Dr-S-269×300.png
DOWNLOAD HERE: SolarIMG_Podcast_Sep2012_Dr_Leif_Svalgaard.mp3
Read more of Dr. Svalgaard’s research @ http://leif.org/research

Maybe the mods could post the actual pic in this comment for you. Please, mods? Pretty please?

gregole

I blew it bad last year – that August cyclone messed up my prediction big-time. Let me think about it a bit, maybe I “throw the bones” or cast a horoscope, or read the cards this time. (Let’s see, where was that link to PIOMAS?)
I’ll get back to you.

Sera

4.5

Manfred

Reasons for less ice:
1. Thin ice due to low last year
2. Current wind pattern expanding and thining ice and flushing out thick ice through Fram Strait
Reasons for more ice:
1. Recent below average temperatures
2. DMI >30% extent at multi year high
3. Cold sea surface temperatures, PDO already negative driving Alaskan entrance, Cold patches in Northern Atlantic -> first signs of AMO flipping ?
4. Recent trend of shortening melt season.
All together may cancel, after an early end of melt seaon minimum at
5.05 mill km2
Projection beyond that,
Trend WILL reverse with AMO

Thrasher

How the hell are some of you predicting >6 million sq km for a min? Have you know knowledge of our history of arctic sea ice min on Jaxa? We haven’t done that in the entire record since 2002, though we came close in 2003. What in your right mind would make you think we would rebound from a record min below 3.5 million sq km to 6 million sq km in one year? A big rebound is possible given the start, but something like 5 million sq km would probably be way more realistic if you believe a big rebound is coming.

okie333

5.4M

jim Steele

The ice is definitely not melting at the same rates as before. In the east the Barents and Kara Sea are most affected by warm Atlantic water intrusions but are now rebounding. The volume of intruding Atlantic water has been decreasing and it appears both seas are regaining ice suggesting the heat of past Atlantic intrusions have largely ventilated. In the west the negative PDO stopped pumping so much warm Pacific water through the Bering Strait and the Bering Sea ice remains above average as does the Chukchi and East Siberian Sea. Things are definitely firming up. I would guess 5.5 this year, 7 or more within the next 5 years and a death spiral for Serreze’s theory.

John Silver

Get a monkey.
Teach the monkey to throw a dart at a list of numbers.
Use the number to predict Arctic ice minimum.
Now, that’s what I call real climate science.

AndyG55

Thrasher said “Have you know knowledge ”
roflmao !!!!

AndyG55

John Silver..says, “Get a monkey”
or a climate scientist !!