Bona Churchill: The Long-Withheld Climate Record

Over on X, Al Gore just published a hagiography of the recently deceased climate “scientist” Lonnie Thompson. He said in part:

“Lonnie Thompson went to the ends of the Earth and above the clouds to document and understand the effects of the climate crisis on our planet. Across the highest mountain ranges, from the Andes to the Himalaya, his physically arduous and heroic research revealed the rapid decline of the world’s highest glaciers. And his meticulously documented findings from the ice cores he carried back down the mountains had an impact far beyond the scientific community. His lifelong determination to communicate what he discovered about the global impact of the climate crisis with policymakers and the public was extraordinary.”

Only one leetle problem with Thompson’s “meticulously documented findings” and “lifelong determination to communicate” … Lonnie flat-out refused to reveal what the Bona Churchill ice core had to say.

All the way back in the computer dark ages, in September of 2006, Steve McIntyre published a post yclept “My Prediction for dO18 at Bona Churchill“. In it, he said:

“In 2000, Lonnie Thompson drilled ice cores at Kilimanjaro which were published 2 years later. In 2003, they drilled ice cores at Bona Churchill in Alaska. They made a presentation at AGU with press release in 2004 about looking for (and not finding) White River Ash from an 803 AD eruption.

But no publications so far.

Here’s my prediction about dO18 levels at Bona Churchill.: 

20th century dO18 levels will be more negative (“colder”) than levels in the early 19th century – the opposite pattern to the pattern that Thompson is promoting for tropical glaciers.“

In fact, both Lonnie and Ellen Thompson more than once refused to share their data, a huge scientific no-no. Steve McIntyre discussed that in a post called Lonnie and Ellen, A Serial Non-Archiving Couple. This hiding of their results is particularly egregious given that their research was taxpayer-funded.

Steve tried several times to get the National Science Foundation to convince Lonnie and Ellen to archive the Bona Churchill data … but no joy. This despite the US Global Change Research Programs’ official data policy, which says:

“Full and open sharing of the full suite of global data sets for all global change researchers is a fundamental objective. As data are made available, global change researchers should have full and open access to them without restrictions on research use….

For those programs in which selected principal investigators have initial periods of exclusive data use, data should be made openly available as soon as they become widely useful. In each case the funding agency should explicitly define the duration of any exclusive use period…

Deciding when data become widely useful is the responsibility of the funding agency, which should explicitly define the periods of restricted access, if any. In the past, some Principal Investigators have retained data for indefinite periods and this has inhibited their widespread use. This practice should be eliminated.”

So, feeling outraged by Gore osculating the nether regions of Lonnie and Ellen, the serial non-archivers par excellence, I thought I’d look to see if the Bona Churchill data was ever archived … and to my surprise, I found out it finally was archived.

In 2019, 16 years after they did the drilling, and years after Steve McIntre repeatedly asked for it to be exposed to public view, it was put into the NOAA Paleoclimate data repository.

Now, bearing in mind that Steve’s prediction was that “20th century dO18 levels will be more negative (“colder”) than levels in the early 19th century – the opposite pattern to the pattern that Thompson is promoting for tropical glaciers“, what does the actual data look like?

Here you go …

Figure 1. d18O data from the Bona Churchill ice core. d18O is generally thought of as a proxy for temperature, with more negative values indicating colder temperatures and less negative values indicating warmer temperatures.

So, as is usually the case, it looks like Steve McIntyre was right. Well, almost right. Rather than recent times being colder than the start of the 1800s, the ice core shows recent times as colder than the end of the 1700s. Good enough for me, and a very good reason for them to not reveal the data.

Lonnie and Ellen Thompson don’t deserve to be famous scientists. They deserve to be infamous “scientists” for repeatedly hiding from public view the very data that showed their claims were wrong. This is the exact opposite of what science is about.


Meanwhile, here in Northern California, the first of what are now called “atmospheric rivers” that bring rain from the tropics is due to arrive on Thursday. They used to be called the “Pineapple Express”, and on my planet, the name change is just another way that the mainstream climate alarmorous ignorati are sucking the joy out of studying the weather.

My very best to each and every one,

w.

PS: Yeah, you’ve heard it before, and you’ll hear it again. When you comment, please QUOTE THE EXACT WORDS you are referring to. I can defend my words. I cannot defend what you think my words mean. Thanks.

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November 11, 2026 10:17 am

Off Topic but I don’t know any way to ask a question.

CFACT contributors often post articles here and also comment here. CFACT appears to be offline and has been down for perhaps 24 hours or more. Does anyone know the cause?

John Hultquist
Reply to  TEWS_Pilot
November 11, 2026 10:59 am

Website came up for me, just now (in WA State at 10:58).

November 11, 2026 10:18 am

After a short search:

In ice core research, δ¹⁸O (delta-O-18) levels measure the ratio of two stable oxygen isotopes—heavy oxygen (¹⁸O) and light oxygen (¹⁶O)—trapped in ancient snow and ice. Scientists compare this ratio to a modern ocean water standard, Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water (VSMOW), and express it in parts per thousand (per mil, or ‰).
Because water molecules containing these isotopes behave differently as temperatures change, δ¹⁸O serves as a reliable “paleo-thermometer” for reconstructing Earth’s past temperatures over hundreds of thousands of years

November 11, 2026 10:30 am

As Steve correctly surmised and you just proved, yet another example of ‘hide the decline’.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
November 11, 2026 11:01 am

? ? I got “hide the decline” perfectly from Willis E’s post. I just didn’t know what “delta O 18” was exactly. I also looked up “hagiography” but you can get that from Willis E’s Text & link

My link for DO18 was to “Google AI” As such it used wikipedia as one source which is in my opinion is a red flag. At least it didn’t use Skeptical Science which I’ve seen Google use.

FlaDiver
November 11, 2026 10:38 am

I remember the Pineapple Express from my 20 years of living in the High Desert (77-99) and my small town turning into an island more than once.

Denis
November 11, 2026 10:52 am

The quoted NSF data requirements say they should be followed. The word “should” is used 5 times in the quoted NSF requirement. This allows some researchers to simply ignore it. The words must, shall or synonyms appear nowhere. Since the NSF is spending my money (and yours), I insist the “shoulds” be deleted, “must” or “shall” be inserted, and the penalty for failure to do so shall be a fine equal to the funding provided added.
“

John Hultquist
November 11, 2026 10:57 am

Thanks Willis.
I remember reading of the intransigence of the Thompsons, likely via something McIntyre posted. The authorities of the U.S. Global Change Research Program of that time were not doing their duty.

RE: the “Pineapple Express”
Hawaii once supplied over 90% of the world’s pineapples. Today, only a few farms remain. Here in the Great Left Coast State of Washington the stores sometimes sell a “Hawaii Gold”. A Pineapple Express sounds benign or even advantageous — We can’t have that during a climate crisis. Likewise, a series of cold fronts from Canada into the U. S. were called a Polar Outbreak. The new, misapplied, term is a Polar Vortex. 

Gregory McCall
November 11, 2026 11:18 am

Many years ago I attended a presentation in Columbus Ohio given by another OSU glaciologist who had just returned from Greenland. It was filled with many dramatic warnings of climate change. A video of a massive glacier breakup was shown at the very end to leave an impression on the audience.
I went to the blog of the presenter and found that the most recent year’s observations showed glacier advance, not decline. That was never mentioned in the presentation.
Essentially the same issue — obscure the data that doesn’t fit.