Energy Intermittent Wind and Solar The Grid

Panic Buying at NESO

23 hours ago
Guest Blogger
53 Comments

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Joe Public/Dave Ward

Kathryn Porter lifts the lid on a day of panic at NESO:

Screenshot of the Watt-Logic blog post headline “Was NESO panic buying spare capacity on 6 November 2026?”, dated 7 November 2026

On Friday 6 November, Britain’s electricity system operator spent consumers’ money like a gold digger who just got her hands on a billionaire’s Amex, paying very high prices for additional electricity imports, with interconnector auctions recording clearing prices above £2,500 /MWh. NESO also accepted offers in the Balancing Mechanism at prices approaching £1,000 /MWh.

So why was NESO buying so much expensive electricity when there was apparently plenty of domestic generating capacity available?

Full story here.

In short, NESO went into panic mode during a low-wind day, buying imported electricity at sky-high prices, whilst, according to Kathryn, they had plenty of spare domestic capacity available.

NESO have been unable to explain their actions, which cost bill payers £5 million.

But the real, underlying problem is the sheer intermittency of wind and solar power.

a) It is intermittent

b) It is uncontrollable

c) It is unpredictable

NESO grid operators admit that they are finding it ever more difficult to balance the grid. One particular issue is that nearly all solar power and much onshore wind power is embedded within the local distribution networks. It is therefore invisible to NESO, who only see it as surge or drop in demand.

I have discussed before the very real problems which will face us soon of too much wind and solar power at times. NESO won’t be able to constrain embedded generation that it can’t even see.

Kathryn links NESO’s interconnector trades webpage, here.

You can drill up or down the graphs which show MW Volume and the Price paid, (Volume Weighted Average, or VWA).

So, for example, on the day in question, 6th November, NESO bought 17608 MW at a price of £284.91/MWh. Individual trades are also listed and Sell trades can also be selected.

NESO bar and line chart of daily interconnector trade volumes in MW and volume-weighted price in pounds for 1 to 8 November 2026, peaking at 17,608 MW on 6 November

https://www.neso.energy/data-portal/interconnector-requirement-and-auction-summary-data/interconnector_requirements_and_auction_summary

So far this year, NESO have bought 1093053 MW and sold 772082 MW. However the VWA Price for Buy Trades has been £181.53/MWh, while the Sell VWA Price has averaged £33.28/MWh:

NESO chart of total interconnector buy trades in 2026, 1,093,053 MW, stacked by interconnector
NESO chart of total interconnector sell trades in 2026, 772,082 MW, stacked by interconnector

We are back to the unavoidable problem – when we are short of wind power, so is Europe, and we have to pay accordingly. And when we have too much wind and solar, so does Europe, and we have to give it away at a loss.

Please note that these interconnector trades are only a small part of total interconnector flows, as NESO explain:

NESO text explaining that it trades on the IFA1, BritNed, NEMO, IFA2, ElecLink and Viking Link interconnectors to manage system constraints and margin

https://www.neso.energy/data-portal/interconnector-requirement-and-auction-summary-data

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53 Comments
Steve Case
November 8, 2026 10:12 pm

NESO ==> National Energy System Operator (UK Energy Body)
Launched on October 1, 2024, under the UK’s Energy Act 2023, the National Energy System Operator is a central, independent body that runs the British energy grid. It was formed when the government acquired the Electricity System Operator (ESO) from the private company National Grid plc for £630 million, bringing it into public ownership.

11
Tombstone Gabby
November 8, 2026 10:22 pm

About an hour and a quarter ago I was at AEMO – Australia – their time 3PM, 11/9. The four mainland states all showing negative prices for their power, and just short of 50% for combined solar and wind generation. Coal, black and brown, wasn’t too far behind. Just how the heck does a business make a profit “selling their product” for a ‘negative’ price.

10
Bryan A
November 8, 2026 10:36 pm

One major crime is that the UK could provide almost all of their average daily demand of 25GW-30GW from 12 – 15 Nuclear Generation plants each with 2 – 1,100MW generators and never need to either Load balance on a second to second basis or to purchase exorbitantly priced energy through the interconnectors.

38
1saveenergy
November 8, 2026 11:09 pm

In the UK, 07:00, demand = 31 GW; wind contribution is just 0.9 GW (3%.
https://grid.iamkate.com/

We have a week of wind speeds of 5 to 15 mph forecast, temps ~7°. What happens in Jan-Feb when we drop to zero ??

And the silly twats still want most of our heating & transport converted to electric !!

36
Rod Evans
Reply to  1saveenergy
November 8, 2026 11:54 pm

Now just before 08:00 it is down to 1% with power demand at 33.4GW.

9
GiraffeOnKhat
Reply to  Rod Evans
November 9, 2026 1:33 am

9:30, demand is up to 40.15, wind is supplying 0.57, so that’s up a bit. Pumped storage is running just shy of 1GW.

0
michel
Reply to  1saveenergy
November 9, 2026 12:10 am

Yes. Convert generation to wind and solar, with the results you can see on gridwatch and which I just posted for today 7.45am. Then at the same time convert heating to heat pumps and transport to EVs, which will increase demand by an amount proportional to its success – if it all meets targets I am guessing that demand will start peaking at about 65GW. Maybe more. So, you ask, what are the plans for storage and backup?

There are none.

What happens when there is the usual winter blocking high and the situation in effect today lasts, with a bit more coming from wind, for a week or ten days?

They have no plan and no idea.

15
Rod Evans
Reply to  michel
November 9, 2026 12:34 am

The plan they have adopted is ‘blackout’. The defence secretary has already alerted the public to store food and get a wind up radio to be able to listen to the soothing words coming at us from the BBC and Prime Minister Burnham when the lights go out. This week could see a live rehearsal of blackout Britain.

22
rovingbroker
Reply to  michel
November 9, 2026 5:01 am

Heating with heat pumps is like drinking tepid tea — not something you or I would anticipate with glee.

5
MrGrimNasty
Reply to  1saveenergy
November 9, 2026 12:14 am

Don’t forget Solar PV. Zero. Obviously.

Won’t do much throughout the day either with extensive dense fog and the days short with low sun angle.

7
Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  1saveenergy
November 9, 2026 1:42 am

From https://gridmargin.co.uk/

09:25 AM

Gas 24,338 MW 62%
Nuclear 5,124 MW 13%
Biofuel 3,264 MW 8%
Hydro & other 1,942 MW 5%

Wind, Solar and Imports 12%

Can’t see net zero on any horizon.

4
MarkW
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
November 9, 2026 1:17 pm

I wonder what percentage of the imports come from wind and solar?

0
Rod Evans
November 8, 2026 11:49 pm

Today in the UK the wind contribution to the electricity grid is still less than 1% of demand.
There are fog/mist warnings up and down the country due to the cooling still air conditions.
Stand by for another record price of imported electricity, We look forward to the ongoing impact of Net Zero energy costs here in the UK as the government has already announced it is increasing the price individuals will pay for domestic power inn January 2027 to around £2182 and possibly up to £2,225 for the average household. up from the current £1,723 average current prices.
Oh and of course the government and its agents keep reminding us it is all due to the Ukraine conflict and the Middle East ongoing wars. We are so lucky to have our Net Zero low cost energy systems available to insulate us from those international price influences aren’t we….?
If only they would work, eh?

20
Leo Smith
Reply to  Rod Evans
November 9, 2026 3:20 am

I love a nice bit of dripping (sarcasm) on me morning toast….

5
oeman50
Reply to  Leo Smith
November 9, 2026 5:07 am

Smashing toast, Gromit.

3
Sean Galbally
November 9, 2026 12:00 am

Deelop decent mehods of stoage BEFORE producing it

-5
Leo Smith
Reply to  Sean Galbally
November 9, 2026 3:22 am

It would never have happened if we had.

There are no ‘decent methods of storage’

8
Gunga Din
Reply to  Leo Smith
November 9, 2026 8:15 am

The best methods of storage are natural.
(Coal, oil, gas, nuclear, etc.)

5
Phillip Chalmers
Reply to  Leo Smith
November 9, 2026 1:33 pm

Even with theoretically limitless storage, the non-fossil fuel sources are still almost useless whenever prolonged shortfall occurs as the next few days they cannot do BOTH provide power AND recharge even imaginary inexpensive super-efficient batteries

1
SxyxS
Reply to  Sean Galbally
November 9, 2026 5:39 am

The fact that these methods do not exist and that they still started pushing renewables is proof that this is an act of deliberate sabotage.

And these decent methods most probably not exist in this century
if we take the average annual increase of battery storage into account.
On top the increase won’t scale endlessly as all systems have their limits and once the “cheap” accessible potential has been exploited every further increase comes at a very high cost(pareto principle).

What could possibly go wrong if you built your future on low density energy and low storage capacity?

7
michel
November 9, 2026 12:03 am

NESO has issued an electricity margin notice (EMN) for the period 6am-11am today. Puts gas plants on standby warning to cover a shortfall in generation.

As of now, 7.45am in the UK, this is what the situation looks like:

Demand 33.82

Generation
CCGT 23.73
Biomass 3.27
Wind 0.41
Pumped Hydro 1.03
Hdro 0.9
Other 1.94

Interconnect
Interconnect Export 4.22
Interconnect Import 1.4

Question is what happens when demand rises to 45GW? Does that happen? Yes, indeed it does, every year. This is the highs and lows of demand for this year so far:

Demand 2026
minimum: 14.364 GW
maximum: 48.072 GW
average: 27.918 GW

Source: http://www.gridwatch.co.uk

Where are they going to get 48GW from, when wind puts out 0.41, solar is on annual leave and interconnect is maxed out? And when CCGT is retired or worn out?

This is a whole country’s political and managerial establishment driving off a cliff and proudly streaming selfies to the world as they do it. And here we will find Nick Stokes telling us wind is free fuel. Right, for all 0.41GW of it, from faceplate of what now, 30GW?

The various alarmist fanatics who post here telling us that there is a global warming crisis, while refusing to talk about energy policy. Who cares? What is coming towards the UK is not a global warming crisis, but a local cooling crisis, and its not the climate, but the homes.

17
Leo Smith
Reply to  michel
November 9, 2026 3:33 am

Please use the real non-profit gridwatch, and note the nuclear contribution is in fact 5.13GW

Nuclear and gas are supplying the vast majority of demand, It is flat calm and wind is doing nothing and solar is creeping up to a dull wintry midday 3GW

Note that the interconnectors are not supplying anything, apart from Norway: In fact Britain is exporting more than it is importing, as our continental chums are in similar shit to us.

Gas, nuclear and wood pellets are keeping the lights on today

Screenshot-at-2026-11-09-11-29-42
8
michel
Reply to  Leo Smith
November 9, 2026 7:22 am

Yes, apologies, I omitted nuclear by an oversight.

Your last is quite right: “Gas, nuclear and wood pellets are keeping the lights on today.” Heaven help the country as the gas enters end of life and is not replaced.

Your site: it was first and in a lot of ways is still the best. The reason I cite the other is the graphs are a bit easier to follow, and for some purposes the max/mean/low can be useful. But I understand why this is irritating. And you are right to note that going beyond simple check –a-graph into research, there is stuff free on yours that is charged for on the other.

But, point noted. Will try.

3
Dave Andrews
Reply to  michel
November 9, 2026 10:06 am

Oxford Prof Dieter Helm has pointed out that NESO’s scenarios largely for accommodating unreliables are for 300-450GW of capacity to meet a maximum expected demand of 90GW (if demand doubles and AI comes). Over 3 and up to 5 times the expected demand!

0
Bryan A
Reply to  michel
November 9, 2026 10:11 am

“The Fuel is Free” is an often used argument that is truly ignorant of the face that Free Fuel doesn’t mean Available on Demand…when needed Most.
The problem isn’t the fuel price, the problem is fuel availability (only when Nature decides to provide it) and fuel storage (impossible with Wind and Solar)
You can’t store sunlight someplace and shine it on your panels when cloudy days come…and you can’t store wind someplace to make the turbines spin when the wind lulls and demand increases

3
michel
November 9, 2026 12:35 am

Yesterday’s numbers from wind:

minimum: 0.245 GW
maximum: 1.102 GW
average: 0.599 GW

Today as of 8.30am:

minimum: 0.315 GW
maximum: 0.489 GW
average: 0.405 GW

Demand about 35GW and rising quite fast, faster than yesterday.

http://www.gridwatch.co.uk/wind

3
atticman
Reply to  michel
November 9, 2026 1:25 am

Demand 40 GW at 0915. CCGT supplying all but 60%, nuclear 12%. Less that 1.5% being supplied by wind – and no mention of solar! Frequency has dropped below 50 kHz in last 5 minutes (from 50.14) and Drax is working flat out.

3
GiraffeOnKhat
November 9, 2026 1:36 am

The Energy and Net Zero department won’t be noticing, well over 500 of them will be at COP31 in Turkey.

13
atticman
Reply to  GiraffeOnKhat
November 9, 2026 2:30 am

Then there will be enough hot air to heat the whole of the UK! If only we could somehow divert… Oh!

1
Steve Richards
November 9, 2026 2:17 am

Nope, you have it all wrong!
With just 2% of electricity from wind then all you need to do is add 50 times more windmills to give you 100%.

Easy isn’t it?

Add a safety margin for poor wind say, double the number of machines, so 200 times more wind turbines than now.

Even the maths is easy!

Do I need to add a /sarc?

16
Steve Richards
Reply to  Steve Richards
November 9, 2026 2:29 am

Then, of course, we would all live with the sight and sound of a huge windmill.

That is really comforting!

Sarc still enabled.

5
Gunga Din
Reply to  Steve Richards
November 9, 2026 8:18 am

An added bonus is that they’d get rid of all those pesky birds and bats! 😎

2
Bruce Cobb
November 9, 2026 2:33 am

Don’t forget the warm fuzzies people get, knowing that through their sacrifice, they are helping “save the planet”. Come to think of it, those warm fuzzies should come in handy when the power goes out. That, and the heat generated from cranking up those hand cranked radios will do it. Maybe an extra sweater too.

6
Leo Smith
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
November 9, 2026 3:34 am

Virtue signalling keeps everyone warm

3
Gunga Din
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
November 9, 2026 8:24 am

I have an emergency radio that includes a hand crank. It even includes a port which can recharge your phone!
(Of course, eventually there may not be any data centers left to field your calls and store and supply your phone with data. Progress!)

0
Gregg Eshelman
November 9, 2026 2:40 am

Has the UK installed the big cables they need to get all the wind generated power from the Orkney Islands? https://youtu.be/8UmsfXWzvEA

Those islands got covered in wind turbines, but their power link to the rest of the UK archipelago is akin to a coffee stirrer.

0
kommando828
Reply to  Gregg Eshelman
November 9, 2026 3:36 am

Think HS2, costs soaring and the natives getting restless at the destruction of the countryside already scarred by Turbines.

1
Leo Smith
Reply to  Gregg Eshelman
November 9, 2026 3:37 am

The wind farms are not prepared to pay for it, so no, they haven’t.

The wind farms get paid more not to generate when its windy than they could ever get back selling electricity into a low price network on a windy day, if they had to fund their own connectivity to the grid.

3
atticman
Reply to  Leo Smith
November 9, 2026 4:43 am

So, in effect, the windfarm operators are subsidised out of our taxes to build wind turbines that make more money for them when they’re not generating? Bonkers! Proof that net zero is a scam on consumers (as if proof were needed).

6
michel
Reply to  atticman
November 9, 2026 7:33 am

Yes. A bit like Holland, as a for instance, and butter. Back in the day they paid the farmers to produce butter, and loaded the costs of doing that onto the price of butter.

The result was less and less butter bought, it was too expensive, so the price had to rise for the lower amount to generate the same subsidy cash. And so the butter mountain and the wine lakes were created.

We had better pray that no method for storing huge amounts of electricity is ever discovered. We will end up with an electricity… what to call it? Its not a lake, its not a mountain. But it will be a huge amount of something that no-one can afford to buy, which the wind operators are paid to produce in ever increasing quantities.

1
Gunga Din
Reply to  michel
November 9, 2026 8:32 am

Well, “Climate Change” is supposed to produce or intensify more storms.
Just convert the current lightening rods! Start now!!
(I’m sure somebody will come up with a way to store the electricity from the lightening bolts … eventually.)

1
Leo Smith
November 9, 2026 3:18 am

Kathryn is the best.

4
1saveenergy
Reply to  Leo Smith
November 9, 2026 3:36 am

She should be the energy minister

2
Rod Evans
Reply to  1saveenergy
November 9, 2026 4:09 am

What? are you saying our Miatta Fahnbulleh with her PPE and endorsement in African economics isn’t up to the job?…..

4
DavsS
Reply to  Rod Evans
November 9, 2026 4:52 am

It’s extraordinary how one degree course can produce so many clueless politicians.

7
SxyxS
Reply to  DavsS
November 9, 2026 5:50 am

It seems you found the one degree that actually causes all the climate shit – but it ain’t related to warming.

We should do something to limit it.

1
Rod Evans
Reply to  SxyxS
November 9, 2026 8:33 am

It is called a ‘troughers’ degree because it is the one most favoured by the Public Sector and political class. We have degrees Centigrade, Fahrenheit and Troughers, as you say we know one degree is worrying, well according to the BBC anyway, so in Fahnbulleh’s case having two of them it’s getting serious, we are right to be concerned I think.

0
worsethanfailure
Reply to  DavsS
November 9, 2026 5:58 am

It is extraordinary how many young people, while still in secondary school and choosing a university course, seem to realize that a PPE degree is a ticket to govern and to wield power.

They are literally half-formed yet they are confident they should be making the decisions.

Who says young people today lack self-confidence? They burst with hubris.

1
rovingbroker
November 9, 2026 5:10 am

Just wait until all of our cars, busses and trucks are electric …

2
Gunga Din
Reply to  rovingbroker
November 9, 2026 8:34 am

Yes. All they need is a lightening rod and a flux capacitor.

1
isthatright
November 9, 2026 7:40 am

This situation is a mirror of our situation in California. During much of the year the state produces much more solar power during midday which must be “sold” to the grid, since only a tiny fraction of the excess can be stored. Since the grid does not need this excess electricity, California has to pay the grid to take the surplus solar produced power. This is why I put sold in quotes. California is not selling this excess power to the grid, we are paying the grid to take it.

In the evening, when demand peaks and solar production is low or non-existent, California has to buy power from the grid at premium prices. This happens every day. California imports, on average, 29% of the power used in the state. When you realize that all of this imported power is bought at a premium, it explains why Californians pay the highest costs for electricity in the 49 non-island state.

Everyone with at least minimal IQ realizes that renewables need to be backed up by dispatchable power. The problem for California, is that our back up power sources are not in the state. This keeps our average power rates at $0.45 kWh.

1
Phillip Chalmers
November 9, 2026 1:45 pm

In future, maybe we can call the UK windmills “Fawlty Towers”

3
Bob
November 9, 2026 3:48 pm

This is pitiful these knuckleheads have been warned for decades that this is a hazard when using wind and solar. It isn’t like they are unaware of it. Fire up all fossil fuel and nuclear generators, build new fossil fuel and nuclear generators, remove all wind and solar from the grid.

2
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