The Week That Was: 2026-10-31 (October 31, 2026)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “If quantum mechanics hasn’t profoundly shocked you, you haven’t understood it yet.”— Niels Bohr
Number of the Week: 4°C (7°F)
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: This TWTW begins with a discussion of what is meant by greenhouse gas being saturated and graphic representations of CO2 saturation. TWTW discusses a letter that Richard Lindzen and William Happer sent to EPA Administrator Zeldin on the Recission of the Greenhouse Gas Findings for Fossil Fuel-Fired Power Plants. Then TWTW presents a significant omission in a paper by scientists with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). TWTW concludes with a discussion of a paper suggesting that CO2 caused global warming may be preventing the oncoming of an Ice Age.
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Saturation Graphics: In common parlance, we use the term saturation in the sense of a sponge that is saturated with water: it can hold no more. In the case of the greenhouse effect, the term has a slightly different meaning. At very low concentrations of a greenhouse gas, 100% of the energy absorbed by a greenhouse gas (GHG) is quickly transferred via molecular collisions to the kinetic energy of normal atmospheric molecules, thereby raising the temperature, with none of that infrared radiation (IR} emitted to space. At much higher concentrations of the GHG, molecular collisions excite those GHG molecules, causing them to emit IR, with some IR (especially from higher altitudes) going to space. In short, a smaller fraction of the IR absorbed by the GHG molecules winds up heating the atmosphere. So, the addition of 20 ppmv (parts per million in volume) of CO2 to an atmosphere that has 400 ppmv of CO2 has far less heating effect than the addition of 20 ppmv when the atmosphere has no CO2 at all.
Using mathematics that are beyond the scope of TWTW, William. Happer and Laura Klett of the CO2 Coalition discuss this issue in “Saturation of Warming by the Greenhouse Gas CO2.” The authors provide graphics that clearly show how saturation changes the influence of CO2 on temperatures. As more carbon dioxide is added the increase in temperatures diminishes. The law of diminishing returns applies.
The calculations are the results of over 150 years of experimentation verified by observations using instruments on weather balloons and satellites. One key graph compares Linear warming which is often used (the red line) with Logarithmic Warming which actually occurs (the blue line). The numbers in parentheses in the caption below refer to the equations in the paper which are not presented here.
As can be seen graphically above, adding more CO2 to today’s atmosphere will not cause much warming. The red and upper dark lines start at 0 ppmv, the blue line starts at 20 ppmv.
A second graph shows the increase in temperature for each incremental increase in carbon dioxide as it is increased in increments of 20 parts per million in volume (ppmv which the paper terms as ppm).
Notice that the first 20 ppmv increment can cause a warming of 3.08°C (5.54°F) the second 20 ppmv increment can cause a warming of only 0.53°C (0.95°F). Already, diminishing returns are occurring. The 20 ppmv after the start of the Industrial Age can cause a warming of 0.054°C (0.097°F). Adding an additional 20 ppmv above the approximate 420 ppmv we have today will cause a warming of only 0.038°C (0.068°F). There is no threat of runaway or dangerous warming from adding additional carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.
Happer and Klett give their calculations in table supporting the above graph.
The column n is the number of each additional increment of 20 ppmv of carbon dioxide; the column Cn is the amount of carbon dioxide in ppmv; the column ∆Tn is the increase in calculated temperature from that particular increment of 20 ppmv; and the column Tn is the total increase in calculated temperature from the total carbon dioxide at that point. Reading the column ∆Tn downward we see how quickly diminishing returns makes the temperature increase from adding more carbon dioxide insignificant.
This physical evidence contradicts claims by the UN IPCC and its followers that warming since 1850 was caused by carbon dioxide and that carbon dioxide is causing dangerous global warming. The UN IPCC has offered no physical evidence for its claims other than global climate models which are contradicted by temperature changes in the atmosphere where the greenhouse effect occurs. The closest the IPCC and its followers offer as physical evidence is a weak correlation. Correlation is not causation, and using a weak correlation is absurd.
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Rescission of Greenhouse Gas Findings: Charles Weller, the senior legal advisor to the CO2 Coalition, sent TWTW a copy of a letter that Richard Lindzen and William Happer sent to Administrator Zeldin of the EPA on Friday, October 30, on the Recission of the Greenhouse Gas Findings for Fossil Fuel-Fired power Plants. With the footnotes omitted the letter states:
BEGIN QUOTE
Re: Rescission of the Greenhouse Gas Findings for Fossil Fuel-Fired Power Plants and
Repeal of Regulations for Power Plant Greenhouse Gas Emissions Under Clean Air Act
Section 111 (‘Proposed Rule’)
Dear Administrator Zeldin:
We are career physicists with a special expertise in radiation physics, which describes how carbon dioxide (CO2) and other GHGs affect heat flow in Earth’s atmosphere. Each of us has published over 200 peer-reviewed papers on the science of climate or closely related subjects. We are both members of the National Academy of Sciences. Our curricula vitae are in the appendix.
Thank you for the opportunity to comment on the EPA’s ‘proposed rescissions and repeals of the 2015 NSPS [New Source Performance Standards], 2024 CPS [Carbon Pollution Standards], and any underlying listings, findings, and determinations with respect to GHG [Greenhouse Gases] emissions from fossil fuel fired-EGUs [Electric Generating Units],’ and ‘not limiting comment to …identified areas.’ Proposed Rule, pp. 59006, 59044.
All the regulations are based on the Human-Caused GHG Warming Theory that major increases in the six major greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide and five others, cause major increases in global warming, which in turn cause increased extreme weather, such as more heat waves, hurricanes, storms and rising sea levels. As James Hansen, one of the proponents of the theory, put it, ‘CO2 is … the principal control knob of global climate change.’
Our comments demonstrate that the Human-Caused GHG Warming Theory is flawed science. The public almost never hears three well-established facts:
1. Since 1750, CO2 has had little effect on global temperatures. All scientists agree that, as the atmospheric concentration of CO2 increases, each additional molecule very rapidly loses its warming power. Fig. 1 below shows warmings caused by 20 ppm (parts per million) additions of CO2 to the atmosphere. For a hypothetical atmosphere with no CO2, the first 20-ppm addition would cause a relatively large warming of 3.08 °C. For the 280 ppm concentrations of CO2 at the beginning of the industrial age, in the year 1750, a 20-ppm addition only provides a much smaller 0.054 °C of warming. At today’s concentration of 420 ppm, a 20-ppm addition warms by a trivial 0.038 °C.
2. Annual warming from increasing methane, CH4, is about 10 times less than the small warming from CO2. Warming from nitrous oxide, N2O, is about the same as that from methane. Warming by the halogenated greenhouse gases is even smaller and does not matter.
3. The most important greenhouse gas is not CO2 but water vapor (H2O). Water vapor is responsible for about two-thirds of the current greenhouse warming of the Earth. When the large radiative effects of clouds are included, water’s influence on Earth’s climate dwarfs that of CO2. Human activities have little effect on the water cycle of the Earth.
Moreover:
1. Higher levels of CO2 have increased the food available for people worldwide and will continue to do so with higher levels of CO2. Doubling CO2 will increase the world’s food supply by about 40%, yet only slightly increase global temperatures. The very words ‘Carbon Pollution Standards’ is Orwellian doublespeak. CO2 is a benefit to life on Earth, not a pollutant.
2. The global effort to reduce CO2 emissions to Net Zero will be disastrous for people everywhere. First, it will reduce the amount of food that CO2 creates for people globally, increasing the threat of starvation. Second, it requires the elimination of the use of fossil fuels, which will deprive people worldwide of inexpensive energy. Yet, even if the Net Zero actions are 100% successful, they will have virtually no effect on global temperatures. Accordingly, all Net Zero actions worldwide should be stopped immediately.
3. It is our opinion that the United States and the world are confronted with policies and government rules and actions that will destroy western economies, impoverish the working middle class, condemn billions of the world’s poorest to continued poverty and increased starvation, and leave our children despairing of their future.
Accordingly, the proposed rescission and repeal Rule when finalized should be upheld.
Finally, we understand the Supreme Court has made clear that ‘when an agency makes … scientific judgments, … a reviewing court must be at its ‘most deferential.’ Thus we respectfully suggest the EPA make the scientific judgment in this final rule that CO2 and the other greenhouse gases have had little effect on global temperatures since 1750, will have even less effect in the future, and have not increased the severity or frequency of extreme weather. What warming has occurred has been mostly a natural recovery from the cold of the Little Ice Age and has been beneficial.
END QUOTE
Of special note for readers of TWTW under Supplementary Information the letter states [Emphasis in original, footnotes omitted here.]
BEGIN QUOTE
Supplementary Information
- Scientific Theories Are Determined by the Scientific Method, Validating Theoretical Predictions with Observations, Not by Consensus, Government Opinion, Peer Review, Models That Do Not Work, or Fabricated, Falsified or Omitted Contradictory Science
At the outset, it is fundamental to distinguish between what is, and is not, science.
As scientists, we totally agree with the U.S. Supreme Court: ‘scientific knowledge’ … must be derived by the scientific method. Daubert v. Merrell Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 509 U.S. 579, 593 (1993).
What is the scientific method? Prof. Richard Feynman, a Nobel Laureate in Physics, provided a simple yet profound definition:
‘[W]e compare the result of [a theory’s] computation to nature, … compare it directly with observations, to see if it works. If it disagrees with experiment, it is wrong. In that simple statement is the key to science.’ The Character of Physical Law (1965) 150.
Agreement with observations is the measure of scientific truth. Scientific progress proceeds by the interplay of theory and observation. Theory explains observations and makes predictions of what will be observed in the future. Observations anchor understanding and weed out the theories that do not work. This has been the scientific method for more than four hundred years. Thus, Scientific data are the coin of the realm in science, and they are always treated with reverence. [Boldface added]
What is not science? Science is not determined by unscientific sources, such as consensus; government opinions; peer review; models that do not work; cherry-picked, fabricated and falsified data, and omitting contradictory science and data. [Boldface added]
Finally, the law similarly holds agency action invalid ‘if the agency has relied on factors which Congress has not intended it to consider [such as from unscientific sources], or entirely failed to consider an important aspect of the problem’, as detailed here.
END QUOTE
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Omission: Above, Richard Lindzen and William Happer state “omitting contradictory science and data” is not science. Yet this is a common practice with the UN IPCC and its followers. For example, in a paper “Global Warming Has Accelerated Significantly” published in Geophysical Researches Letters on March 6, 2026, G. Foster, S. Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) state in the abstract [Boldface added]:
“Recent record-hot years have caused discussion over whether global warming has accelerated. Previous analysis found acceleration (i.e., increase in warming rate) has not yet reached a 95% confidence level, given natural temperature variability. We remove the estimated influence of three main natural variability factors: El Niño, volcanism, and solar variation. The resulting adjusted and thus less “noisy” data show that there has been acceleration with over 98% confidence, with faster warming over the last 10+ years than during any previous decade.”
The plain language summary adds:
“Warming proceeding faster is not unexpected by climate models, but it is a cause of concern and shows how insufficient the efforts to slow and eventually stop global warming under the Paris Climate Accord have so far been.”
In attributing the warming to carbon dioxide the authors omit what Nobel co-Laurate John Clauser calls Earth’s thermostat – Clouds.
The website of NASA’s Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project states:
“Climate is controlled by the amount of sunlight absorbed by Earth and the amount of infrared energy emitted to space. These quantities–together with their difference–define Earth’s radiation budget (ERB). The Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project provides satellite-based observations of ERB and clouds. It uses measurements from CERES instruments flying on several satellites along with data from many other instruments to produce a comprehensive set of ERB data products for climate, weather, and applied science research.
The goals of the CERES project are to:
- Produce a long-term, integrated global climate data record for detecting decadal changes in the Earth’s radiation budget from the surface to the top-of-atmosphere.
- Enable improved understanding of how Earth’s radiation budget varies in time and space and the role that clouds and other atmospheric properties play.
- Support climate model evaluation and improvement through model-observation intercomparisons.”
In short, CERES was formed to observe the influence of clouds on Earth and Earth’s temperatures. On May 13, 2026, at the 44th Science Team Meeting of the (CERES) project Clare Singer made a presentation that included an article also published in Geophysical Research Letters on Dec 26, 2025. The abstract of which states in part:
“Observations reveal significant negative trends in reflected shortwave radiation over the 21st century. The global-mean darkening is primarily driven by clouds, while the global-mean atmospheric clear-sky signal is near zero due to offsetting trends in the two hemispheres. Northern Hemisphere clear-sky darkening is dominated by reduced anthropogenic aerosol emissions over population centers.” [Boldface added]
“Clear-sky brightening” means that more solar radiation is reflected to space with no clouds involved. “Global-mean darkening” means less solar radiation is reflected, thus is absorbed by Earth. Thus, the PIK scientists omitted the influence of clouds and the physical evidence that recent warming was primarily driven by clouds. For the PIK report see links under Defending the Orthodoxy, for the CERES report see links under Challenging the orthodoxy.
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No Future Ice Age? In “Study Finds ‘Climate Change’ Stopped The Next Ice Age — Why Aren’t We Celebrating?” the I & I editorial board discuss a paper in AAAS Science the abstract of which states:
“During interglaciations, the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), which is the largest of the Pleistocene ice sheets, retreats to Arctic Canada, where it achieves a minimum configuration. The reexpansion of the LIS following this minimum marks the start of the next glaciation. Here, we show that the last remaining remnant of the most recent LIS, Barnes Ice Cap (Baffin Island, Canada), achieved its minimum interglacial dimensions after ~3.6 thousand years ago, before reexpanding ~2000 years ago, marking the onset of the next glaciation. The new LIS reached maximum dimensions in ~1960 CE, after which anthropogenic summer warming resulted in a negative mass balance, ice margin recession, and the termination of the next glaciation. The demise of the next glaciation, despite the ongoing decline in summer insolation, illustrates the influence of anomalous greenhouse gas forcing on climate.”
The editor of Science asks: “Has anthropogenic warming prevented the next glacial cycle? Young et al. showed that it may have done just that (see the Perspective by Marcott).” In “More Magical Science: Fossil fuels are so powerful they prevented another ice age” states:
“For what it’s worth, there is another little ice cap to the south-east of Barnes, called Penny Ice Cap (a similar size white blob to the right of Barnes). For some reason carbon dioxide doesn’t seem to affect it in exactly the same way as the Barnes Ice Cap.
Shh. The cult of climate science is hard at work.”
Given the small impact on temperatures from the increase in CO2 since 1750 (discussed above) it is doubtful the Ice Age is delayed by human emissions of CO2. The last warm period, the Eemian (130,000 to 115,000 years ago) was 1–4 °C (2 to 7°F) warmer than today with sea level 6 to 9 meters (20 to 30 feet) higher than today with a CO2 level of about 280 ppmv. Greenland may have been about 8°C (14°F) warmer. The oldest ice cores from Greenland are about 120,000 years old such as the East Greenland Ice-core Project (EGRIP).
For the I&I article and paper see links under Defending the Orthodoxy. For Nova’s comments see link under Below the Bottom Line.
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Number of the Week: 4°C (7°F) According EU news media:
“‘We must prepare for the impacts of climate change, which are neither fair nor equally distributed,’ said Teresa Ribera, the Commission executive vice-president responsible for the green transition. ‘We propose using a common global warming trajectory to assess risks and prepare for the future,’ she added.
The world is on track for three degrees of warming compared to pre-industrial levels by 2100, the EU executive said – which translates to Europe growing four degrees hotter, according to the bloc’s climate advisors.” See links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Censorship
Congratulations climate skeptics — you are a ‘Hybrid weapon of war’ and a growing public health threat.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 28, 2026
Link to: Climate change is a growing health emergency, Lancet Countdown warns
By Staff, WHO, Oct 28,2026
Link to: Declaration on Information Integrity on Climate Change
By Staff, UNESCO, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Accessed Oct 29, 2026
https://www.unesco.org/en/information-integrity-climate-change/cop30declaration
From UNESCO website: Recognizing that the urgency of the climate crisis demands not only decisive action by States, but also the broad engagement of all segments of society — including citizens, communities, businesses, subnational governments, civil society organizations, media organizations, international organizations, universities, and research centers.
From Nova: Any international organization that writes up authoritarian, anti-democratic material like this, designed purely to censor debate, deserves to be unfunded, mocked and disbanded immediately. It’s time to get our money back.
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-fossil-fuels/
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming/
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, December 22, 2020
https://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/files/2020/12/WThermal-Radiationf.pdf?x45936
Net Zero Averted Temperature Increase
By Richard Lindzen, William Happer, and William A. van Wijngaarden, CO2 Coalition, June 2024
Radiation Transport in Clouds
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Klimarealistene, Science of Climate Change, January 2025
https://scienceofclimatechange.org/wp-content/uploads/SCC-2025-vWijngaarden-Happer.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Saturation of Warming by the Greenhouse Gas CO2
By William. Happer and Laura. Klett, CO2 Coalition, Oct 27, 2026
Southern Ocean clear-sky brightening from sea spray aerosol increase drives departure from hemispheric albedo symmetry
By Clare E. Singer, 44th CERES Science Team Meeting, May 13, 2026
https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/documents/STM/2026-05/11_Singer_44CERES.pdf
Link to paper: Southern Ocean clear-sky brightening from sea spray aerosol increase drives departure from hemispheric albedo symmetry
By Clare E. Singer, Robert Pincus, Geophysical Research Letters, Dec 26, 2025
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL119637
More trend trouble in the tropical troposphere
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 28, 2026
Link to paper: Biased trend amplification ratios in CMIP6 models
By Timothy J. Vogelsang, Ross McKitrick, John Christy & Roy Spencer, Nature Scientific Reports, Sep 29, 2026
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-026-73624-2
Press Release: Biased trend amplification ratios in CMIP6 models
By Ross McKitrick, His Blog, Oct 12, 2026
https://www.rossmckitrick.com/index.html
[SEPP Comment; Paper discussed in the Oct 17 TWTW.]
Scientists changed the data with their time machine – again. Not just the Australian BoM
16-minute Video featuring Peter Ridd, Via WUWT, Oct 25, 2026
How Green Billionaires Convinced the World to Build Thousands of Useless Windmills: Final
Exclusive Extract From Chris Morrison’s New Book on the Invented ‘Climate Crisis’
In the Daily Sceptic’s final exclusive extract from Chris Morrison’s new book on the ‘climate crisis’: trying to run a modern economy on windmills is insane, but eye-watering sums from green billionaires say it isn’t.
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Oct 21, 2026
Link to: The True Cost of Green Subsidies is Much Higher Than Politicians Admit
With green subsidies now accounting for three quarters of the price of electricity, the cost of Net Zero to the public is much higher than politicians are willing to admit, say Professor Gordon Hughes and Dr Lee Moroney.
By Gordon Hughes and Lee Moroney, The Daily Sceptic, Aug 5, 2026
Nick Stern’s Bad Predictions Cost Us All A Fortune
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 30, 2026
Link to: The Stern Review’s $2.8 Trillion Miss
Twenty years ago, it projected rapidly escalating disaster losses. They didn’t happen.
By Roger Pielke Jr., The Honest Broker, Oct 29, 2026
From Pielke: The Review helped make rapidly escalating disaster costs a pillar of climate advocacy and, later, of “climate risk” in finance. Six years later the IPCC offered an opportunity for course correction with its Special Report on Extreme Events. Instead, climate advocates hitched their wagon to apocalyptic visions of ever-worsening disasters. Reality tells a much different story.
From Homewood: The Stern Review played a central part in the push for Net Zero, as it claimed to prove that doing nothing would be costlier.
It must now be withdrawn.
Defending the Orthodoxy
Scientists confirm global warming is accelerating faster than ever recorded,
Press Release, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Oct 29, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/10/261027231200.htm
Link to paper: Global Warming Has Accelerated Significantly
By G. Foster, S. Rahmstorf, Geophysical Research Letters, Mar 6 2026
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL118804
Study Finds ‘Climate Change’ Stopped The Next Ice Age — Why Aren’t We Celebrating?
I & I Editorial Board, Oct 27, 2026
Link to paper: Late Holocene re-expansion of the Laurentide Ice Sheet
By Nicolás E. Young, et al., AAAS Science, Oct 22, 2026
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aed3379
Brussels wants Europe ready for four degrees of warming
The proposed law would require countries to plan for the worst-case scenario
By Florent Servia and Nikolaus J. Kurmayer, Rapporteur, Oct 27, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.rapporteur.com/news/brussels-wants-europe-ready-for-four-degrees-of-warming/
Link to report: Strengthening resilience to climate change – Recommendations for an effective EU adaptation policy framework
By Staff, European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, Feb 16, 2026
Brussels wants Europe ready for four degrees of warming
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 28, 2026
And Andy Burnham wants to take us back in!
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Practical Steps to Climate Resilience
By Edward Ring, California Policy Center
Link to: Statewide Summary: California’s Fifth Climate Change Assessment
By Elea Becker Lowe, et al. (over 50 authors), CA Governor’s Office of Land Use and Climate Innovation, 2026
https://climateassessment.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/CCCA5-LCI-Statewide-Summary-Report.pdf
From Key Messages: California will experience rising temperatures across the century. Average temperatures in California are increasing at an unprecedented rate, projected to rise by 3.5–4.3°F (1.9–2.4°C) by 2050 relative to the 1981–2010 baseline. By 2100, projected temperature increases range between 5.7°F (3.2°C) under an intermediate emission scenario to 8°F (4.4°C) under a high emission scenario.
With 3.3 feet of sea level rise $78 billion worth of property and 201,000 people could be exposed to coastal flooding by 2100. This means five times the exposure expected in 2050. A 100-year storm could raise these estimates to 310,000 people and $122 billion in property exposed by 2100.
From Ring: It may be heretical to say so, but the “grim future that researchers laid out” (Politico, 10/23) may be an overstatement. Earlier this year, the California Policy Center reviewed over a century of raw station data, evaluating hundreds of thousands of individual reports by month going back to 1925 on precipitation, temperature, humidity, and snow depth. Summarized in four quarter century increments, we found the first 25 years of the 21st century exhibited no trend whatsoever for any of these variables with the exception of snow depth, which was down 9 percent compared to 20th century measurements.
Questioning the Orthodoxy
On El Hierro Island, At Least They Kept The Diesel Backup
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Oct 26, 2026
But here’s some important information you may not be aware of. Here in the U.S., during the Obama and Biden administrations, the regulators took the opposite approach. Rather than proceeding like El Hierro, and building out a wind/storage (or a wind/solar/storage) system first, and only then reducing fossil-fuel backup capacity as that became feasible, they instead ordered that the fossil-fuel capacity must be shut on a fixed schedule without any knowledge or assurance that there would be sufficient wind, solar, storage, or anything else to replace it.
And this was for the whole country, not just for a small island of 11,000 people. All 340+ million Americans were to be enlisted as involuntary guinea pigs in this wild adventure.
Why the prevailing climate change narrative is wrong
By Stephen Andrews, Stephen’s Newsletter, Oct 8, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://sandrews.substack.com/p/why-the-prevailing-climate-change
The observations do not “disprove” a role for carbon dioxide. They do show that the simple hypothesis—CO₂ as the primary driver producing broadly uniform warming—fails a straightforward test against the longest temperature series available. Something else is clearly at work.
The North Sea Green Paradox
By Ben Pile, The Daily Sceptic, Oct 26, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
With fracking and conventional energy production, the green claim is a curious paradox. At the same time as they demand the prohibition of further licensing, they argue that the resources are exhausted, or not economically recoverable. But if they are not viable, then why the panic about their exploitation bringing about ‘Thermogeddon’? They can’t claim that they’re concerned for the poor investors behind Jackdaw and Rosebank, who might lose their shirts.
Scope 3, where are you?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 28, 2026
So, here’s the problem. Scope 1 is reasonably easy to measure, at least in principle. It’s the GHGs you emit directly by doing whatever you’re doing, minus presumably staff breathing out CO2 while at work. Scope 2 isn’t too bad: it’s the same as Scope 1 except it’s from your power suppliers for whatever share of their output you acquire. But Scope 3 is a very different beast. It’s all the emissions from all the people you bought stuff from, plus all the emissions from all the people who bought your products. All of them. Every single one. Even your kid’s lemonade stand. And all based on pseudo-scientific “accounting and reporting standards” that sound good, make work, generate money and are no use in the real world.
What Emission Reduction Advocating Economists get Wrong about the Real World
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 28, 2026
Foxes, Hedgehogs and Climate Change
Why the hedgehogs have won
By John Ridgway. Climate Scepticism, Oct 30, 2026
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 28, 2026
Forget atmospheric rivers and heat domes. Here come “heat storms”. Never heard of one? Well, more dunce you because you’re currently being cooked by them. And get ready for the herd of independent minds to gallop flaming in unison. See “In less than a lifetime, about six and a half decades, heat waves have evolved from sporadic, isolated episodes to massive, cascading weather events that can blanket vast swaths of the planet for months or even years at a time.”
Energy & Environmental Review: October 26, 2026
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, Oct 26, 2026
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
The effect of additional CO2 on garden lettuce
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 28, 2026
From the CO2Science.org archive.
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Unfair dinkum
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 28, 2026
One should never underestimate the incompetence of government. But one should also be aware that when such incompetence reinforces the agenda of senior politicians and public servants it is far less likely to be rooted out, or even noticed, than when it runs contrary to that agenda. Thus it is revealing that calls for an independent audit of Australia’s weather records, including crucially the accuracy of the digitizing of the long-run historical ones, are being opposed by the current Labour administration of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
Changing Weather
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
By Staff, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, Oct 26, 2026
El Niño is present.
Sudden Stratospheric Warming, Powerful El Niño Combination May Lead To Extreme Europe Cold, Energy Crisis!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 25, 2026
Blocking high position as the key factor
Several critical variables will ultimately determine whether this atmospheric potential translates into a historic freeze on the ground. The most decisive factor is the positioning of the Scandinavian high-pressure system. If the blocking high parks directly over Scandinavia, Central and Northern Europe will bear the brunt of the cold as Arctic air sweeps uninterrupted across the continent. However, if that high pressure shifts even a few hundred miles to the west over the Atlantic, the Arctic air could easily miss Western and Central Europe entirely.
The Stratosphere Plummets over Seattle….and Huge Precipitation Contrasts
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Oct 26, 2026
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2026/10/the-stratosphere-plummets-over.html
Today, the stratosphere was much, much closer to you than normal, and we all lived to tell the tale.
El Nino’s Nemesis, The PDO, Helps Protect the Northwest Coast This Year
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Oct 30, 2026
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2026/10/el-ninos-nemesis-pdo-helps-protect.html
Colder and Snowier than Normal in the Northwest: This is NOT the Classic El Nino Pattern
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog Oct 28, 2026
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2026/10/colder-and-snowier-than-normal-in.html
Quite a contrast to classic El Niños that take the moisture plumes into California.
All in all, good news for water resources in the Northwest.
Godzilla-Low Pressure, Heavy Rain, and Drifting Snow Ahead for the Pacific Northwest
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Oct 24, 2026
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2026/10/godzilla-low-pressure-heavy-rain-and.html
Northwest meteorological winter is about to begin dramatically
Historic polar vortex collapse coming within days threatening parts of US with bitter cold
By Stacy Liberatore, Daily Mail, Via MSN, Oct 3, 2026
A ‘polar vortex collapse’ could plunge parts of the US into bitter cold as forecasts point to a potentially record-breaking disruption above the Arctic within days.
A wild winter is brewing. Here’s what meteorologists want you to know.
Across the U.S., some regions could experience especially active storm seasons.
By Ben Noll and John Muyskens, Washington Post, Oct 26, 2026 [H/t S.J. Cvrk]
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026/10/26/el-nino-could-lead-doozy-winter-united-states/
Changing Climate
Blockbuster! PETM Study shows fish boomed when CO₂ was five times higher and Earth was 5–8°C warmer
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 30, 2026
Link to latest of three papers: Coupled increases in pelagic fish productivity and export productivity during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum
By Xiuwen Zhou, et al., Nature Communications, Sep 23, 2026
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-77863-9
Link to earlier paper: Ancient Fish Thrived During a Period of Rapid Global Warming
Teeth and scales preserved in marine sediments suggest that fish thrived during one of Earth’s fastest-warming periods.
By Elyse DeFranco, Eos, Dec 14, 2026
From Eos: About 55 million years ago, Earth’s climate underwent a rapid and intense period of warming, both on land and at sea. Temperatures soared more than 5°C, and even Arctic seas turned tropical. Reconstructing this warm era, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), provides a glimpse into Earth’s possible future.
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Two New Studies Find Thwaites Glacier Melt Cannot Be Driven By Human Activity Or A Warming Ocean
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 24, 2026
Link to one paper: Mass Loss From Thwaites Glacier Continues Even Without Ocean Melting
By C. Rosie Williams, et al., Geophysical Research Letters, July 25, 2026
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2026GL122843
Link to second paper: Post-1990s Warming of Circumpolar Deep Water Off West Antarctica and Its Drivers
By Brendon Y. Damini, et al., JGR Oceans, July 18, 2026
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025JC023856
Changing Seas
‘Highest king tide ever’ swamps South Florida and exposes danger of sea rise
By Alex Harris, Michael Butler, Milena Malaver, Miami Herald, Oct 27, 2026
While these king tides are a natural feature, they’re getting higher as climate change raises sea levels. Miami has clocked about 8 inches of sea level rise since the gauge was installed in 1994, and research shows a distinctive trend toward more hours of higher than high tide as sea levels rise.
Scientists predict that South Florida could see two feet of sea rise by 2060 and potentially up to six feet by 2100. That puts millions of people and billions in real estate value at risk. And although Florida is pouring cash into fixes like higher roads, better pumps and stronger buildings, many argue it’s not enough.
[SEPP Comment: Are seas in South Florida rising faster than anywhere else in the world? Or are cities in South Florida sinking?]
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
China’s Record Harvest Embarrasses Climate Crisis Movement
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Oct 26, 2026
The human consequence of this agricultural ascent should end claims of a planet in terminal decline. China’s per capita food supply rose from 2,328 kilocalories a day in 1980 to 3,029 in 2000, a 30% jump, with average intake near 2,830 kilocalories by the early 2010s. Meat consumption quadrupled between 1980 and 2009, from 14.6 kilograms to 58.2 kilograms per person.
Behind those rising calories stands affordable energy. About 70% of the ammonia produced from natural gas and coal is used to make fertilizers that help to make possible China’s crop yields. Tractors, pumps, and combines run on diesel. This is the production chain the net-zero lobby and crisis propagandists pretend does not exist.
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Billion dollar ABC [Australian Broadcasting Corporation] defends the BOM [Bureau of Meteorology] against those unpaid volunteers who spotted real errors
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 27, 2026
What exactly do we pay the ABC $3.5 million dollars a day for?
Apparently, it’s to cover up Big Government failures.
The climate blame game: When correlation becomes causation
By Mary-Jean Harris and Tom Harris, America Out Loud News, Oct 22, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
In a recent article from Canada’s CTV News, they report that Plan International charity claims that “global warming has increased the risk of child marriages, teenage pregnancies and violence against girls.” This is supposedly due to climate change “disasters” such as floods, droughts, cyclones, and extreme heat that have been forcing families to marry their young daughters off and destroying health and education systems for girls. And of course, this “climate change” that they talk about is not the natural climate cycles that our planet experiences, but human-induced climate change from our carbon dioxide emissions.
Sky’s Off The Charts El Nino
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 28, 2026
The logic goes:
El Nino raises global temperatures – this current El Nino is stronger than normal – global warming makes weather more extreme – therefore extreme weather will be worse.
The logic is faulty and baseless. What El Ninos (and La Ninas) do is shift weather patterns around the globe.
We don’t expect anything better from Sky or the WMO, but we do from the Royal Meteorological Society, whose Chief Executive, Liz Bentley, joined the fray, talking about climate change:
“That’s really the concern that we have as scientists. What is going to play out, because we’ve got a warmer climate and we’ve got a strong El Nino happening. And we’ve never seen those two leading to the level of heat that we’ve got in the Pacific.”
As you don’t know, why scaremonger then?
Your job as meteorologists is to tell us what the weather will be. If you don’t know, just admit it, instead of running with false narratives.
And when winter is over, you can analyse the data and tell us what actually did happen.
Wettest Week For Two Years–Time to Panic Say Telegraph
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 30, 2026
While the Telegraph tries to scaremonger about “rising river levels”, much of the country is still under official drought.
Despite attempts from the likes of Sky to link two days of wet weather to El Nino, autumn rainfall to date is 14% below average.
Wrong, AP and NPR: Europe’s 50,000 Heat Deaths Are a Computer-Model Estimate, Not a Real Body Count
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 28, 2026
So, we have a model estimating how many people died from heat, followed by another model estimating what temperatures would have existed in a hypothetical world without human-caused climate change, followed by a calculation estimating how many of the first model’s estimated deaths would not have occurred in the second model’s imaginary world.
Stormy Weather?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 26, 2026
Apparently I missed the hurricane that hit London over the weekend!
At least, that’s the impression we get from the media. The normally sensible Mike Graham and Emma Woolf were on about “extreme weather, really bad, awful storms, 111 mph winds down in Cornwall”.
No, New York Times, California’s Climate Has Always Been a Land of Flood, Drought, and Fire
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Oct 22, 2026
California has always been a land of meteorological extremes. Its Mediterranean climate naturally produces long dry periods punctuated by episodes of tremendous precipitation. Atmospheric rivers carrying Pacific moisture into the state are not a recent creation of climate change. They are fundamental to California’s hydrology.
Perhaps the most obvious omission from the Times article is the Great Flood of 1861-1862.
Storm Boelo
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 26, 2026
CBC’s ‘Climate Change’ False Spook Story About Canadian Pumpkin Harvests Is All Trick and No Treat
By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, Oct 26, 2026
No, Telegraph, Puffins Are Not Going Extinct
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 27, 2026
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Climate Anxiety? Just Teach Both Sides (a cure in waiting)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Oct 28, 2026
https://www.masterresource.org/climate-anxiety/climate-anxiety-teach-both-sides/
The Environmental Defense Fund is grasping at straws with their recent pitch, “Dealing with Climate Anxiety?”. EDF cites a Mental Health site by Moms Clean Air Force.
When is a fire not a fire?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 28, 2026
Link to: Government of Canada provides an update the 2026 wildfire season
Press Release, Government of Canada, Oct 15, 2026
Press release begins with: “Wildfire seasons are now longer, more complex and more challenging than in the past, and 2026 was no exception.”
From Robson: The press release is a masterpiece of misinformation. It conceded “a slower than average start to the season” before doing a happy dance that things got worse. As in “wildfire activity, driven by periods of prolonged heat, drought and low humidity, became significant in several regions across the country.” Perhaps because with over 300 billion trees Canada always has fires? And indeed had much worse ones two hundred years ago and more?
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
What is the Point of Studying, if AI will Take All the Jobs?
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 24, 2026
The ARC-Welded Green Scare Machine
By Tony Thomas, Climate Scepticism, Oct 28, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Much has been written about the promotion of climate strikes and indoctrination in Australian schools, but we haven’t heard much from the kiddie strikers themselves. No-one seems to chronicle their climate angst and media-chasing as they rehearse for post-school agitation and identity politics. Happily, an education professor at Victoria’s Deakin University (Australian ranking: 11th) has blown the whistle on these sensitive matters.
She is Dr Eve Mayes, Associate Professor (Pedagogy and Curriculum) and her accidental disclosures appear in abstruse journals, the formidable academic jargon studded with green and black talking points.
The Australian Research Council’s (ARC) dispensers of grants love this shtick and awarded Eve $490,266.00 in grants to confer with the activist schoolkids in “so-called” Australia, under the header, Striking Voices.
Whisper Words of Wisdom. Climate ASMR Experiment Finds No Effect on Anything, Sees Potential Anyway
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 29, 2026
Link to paper: Whispers of Change: Positive Climate Communication Through ASMR and Its Potential for Climate Engagement
By Janine N. Blessing &Anja Kalch, Environmental Communication, Oct 17, 2026
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17524032.2026.2753498
From abstract: In recent years, interest has grown in using positive climate communication, broadly understood as climate messages designed to evoke constructive emotional, cognitive, and relational responses, such as hope, efficacy, and nature connectedness, rather than fear or anxiety, to foster climate engagement. While most research has focused on traditional journalism, Autonomous Sensory Meridian Response (ASMR) videos, featuring whispered content and natural soundscapes, may offer a novel sensory-affective format to complement such messages and foster reflective engagement with climate change.
Expanding the Orthodoxy
146 Scientists Demand the World Declare a Climate Emergency
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 30, 2026
Questioning Green Elsewhere
‘Green’ Energy Tradeoffs
By Rebert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Oct 27, 2026
https://www.masterresource.org/environmental-improvement/green-energy-tradeoffs/
Many energy realists post useful information that advances the debate. Ken Brook from Australia was asked SO HOW GREEN ARE RENEWABLES – err solar and wind factories? He listed the upstream problems of wind, solar, and batteries in a comment.
The green scene
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 28, 2026
Besides, what are these “green bond” things? Well, see:
“Canada’s Green Bond Program allows investors to support Canadian investments in climate action and environmental protection, while fostering further development of the Canadian sustainable finance market.”
Allows? They’re already allowed. Why can’t investors simply support Canadian investments, say by investing in them? Well, actually what happens is that various government departments classify some of their spending, aka “investment”, as green through, we are not making it up, a Yes-Minister-style interdepartmental committee, specifically the “Interdepartmental Green Bonds Committee (IGBC)… co-chaired by Finance Canada and Environment and Climate Change Canada, includes representatives from 12 federal departments and Crown corporations.” This nest of red tape then looks at some of the money the government was going to borrow anyway and relabels it green.
Funding Issues
Same Hospital, New Label. Our World in Data Finds a Third of Bilateral Project Aid Is Now “Climate-Related”
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 28, 2026
Link to article: How much development aid is spent on climate change?
And does this crowd out funding for other aid projects?
By Hannah Ritchie (writing) and Pablo Arriagada (data) , Our World in Data, Oct 26, 2026
https://ourworldindata.org/how-much-development-aid-is-spent-on-climate-change
Around one-third of this funding — $50 billion — [of allocatable bilateral aid] was committed to climate-related projects in 2024.
These projects can fall into two categories. Mitigation aims to reduce or avoid greenhouse gas emissions; think investments in clean energy, stopping deforestation, or low-carbon transport. Adaptation helps countries deal with the impacts of climate change: flood defenses, drought-resilient crops, or more reliable water supplies.
[SEPP Comment: According to a graph, $17 bn (12%) is mitigation only; $16 bn (11%) is adaptation only; and $17 bn (12%) is overlap. Adaption for weather events makes sense mitigation does not. Mitigation has little or no impact on weather events.]
Top Science Democrat probes cuts to research spending at National Science Foundation
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct 30, 2026
A key Democrat is looking into a massive amount of money that was appropriated to the National Science Foundation (NSF) but reportedly not spent.
The Political Games Continue
No Such Thing as Free Tobogganing
By Alan Moran, Quadrant, Oct 24, 2026
The list was compiled and circulated to the media in retaliation for [independent federal MP of Australia Helen] Haines drawing attention to the obvious mis-spending of $6 million in taxpayer money to support the Prime Minister’s local golf club.
Other Haines pleas for funding are downright frivolous:
Up to $2,000,000 for a Night Tobogganing and Lights Show at Mount Hotham
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA’s Carbon Repeal Saves Billions, Protects Energy Supplies
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Oct 26, 2026
Energy Issues – General
The core issues with “renewables”
By Stephen Andrews, Stephen’s Newsletter, Oct 28, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshie]
https://sandrews.substack.com/p/the-core-issues-with-renewables
The cube-law sensitivity of wind, the daily and seasonal absence of solar, the low practical energy density of electricity relative to liquid fuels, and the difficulty of storing electricity at scale are not temporary engineering shortcomings. They are consequences of physics. These constraints do not mean wind and solar have no role; they mean that role is limited and that systems relying heavily on them must still solve the problems of reliability, density, and storage—problems that fossil fuels largely solve by their intrinsic properties.
Any serious energy strategy must therefore treat these physical realities as first-order constraints rather than as secondary details to be overcome by scale alone.
When is cheap not cheap?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 28, 2026
The usual suspects are still saying the usual stuff. Bloomberg Green, for instance, reports that “Clean Energy Is Poised to Set New Records in the US”. Which of course proves nothing except that governments are hipped on the stuff, especially as:
“There’s a clean energy bonanza underway in the US, with record volumes of renewables forecast to be installed this year – and then again in 2027, according to BloombergNEF. However, the rapid advance for solar and wind developers is being propelled by a rush to claim expiring federal tax credits.”
Wait, if it’s such a hot investment why would loss of some special tax credits spell the end? Maybe not such a recipe for low bills, is it?
Certainly not in Britain where, Net Zero Watch reports, “Households face debt ‘doom loop’ as energy bills rise”. The doom loop being something only people profoundly ignorant of economics could fail to foresee, and duly did. What happens is that more and more people can’t afford their power bills at all, and the suppliers are required by the same state that kept investing in “cheaper” alternatives and pushing up prices to add surcharges to customers not yet too broke to pay, thus driving them into the delinquent camp:
Marine fuels – the bill hiding in your next pair of shoes
By Lars Schernikau, Unpopular Truth, Via WUWT, Oct 27, 2026
The European Union’s shipping regulations already affect fuel costs and investment decisions.
The EU Emissions Trading System requires shipping companies to surrender allowances for covered emissions, which covers 100% of emissions on voyages between EU ports and 50% on voyages between EU and non-EU ports. Coverage rises from 40% of chargeable 2024 emissions to 70% for 2025 and 100% from 2026, with allowances for 2026 emissions surrendered in September 2027.
Shipowners also face progressively stricter requirements under the EU’s regulation. For commercial passenger and cargo ships above 5,000 GT calling at EU ports, regardless of flag, FuelEU Maritime caps the annual average GHG intensity of energy used on board. The cap is at least 2% below a 2020 fleet-average reference value of 91 gCO2e/MJ from 2025, tightening in five-year steps to 80% below from 2050.
Diesel Crisis Can’t Be Solved By Russian Deals – Peace Is the Only Answer
By Neil Atkinson, Real Clear Energy, Oct 26, 2026
IEA countries have varying ratios of crude versus products in their strategic stocks: overall, there is roughly a 50:50 split. Countries with major refining capacity hold more crude oil than products: the U.S. and Japan are examples. Other countries choose to hold a higher share of products, and this is common in Europe. The U.S. holds only crude oil in its strategic stockpile. Today’s crisis in diesel raises the issue as to whether stocks of diesel and other products should be mandated, and this is an issue the Administration should examine.
[SEPP Comment: The US produces more diesel fuel than it consumes. Why mandate stocks of diesel?]
HotAir is Right, the Labour Decision to Open The Jackdaw Gas Field is a WIN For British Energy Security
By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, Oct 29, 2026
In the UK, for instance, the Renewables Obligations (RO), Feed-in-Tariffs (FiT), and Contract for Difference subsidy schemes support wind and solar by awarding special certificates and payments for power generation, which end up costing the public almost £12 billion per year. As with every grid that ends up being over reliant on intermittent resources, extra gas plants are required to balance the unstable power generation from wind and solar, which further adds to the cost.
Energy Issues – Europe
Germany’s Green Energy Transition Becoming Increasingly Expensive…Another 6 Trillion Euros!
By Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt, Via P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 28, 2026
[SEPP Comment: In 2025, the GDP of Germany was about €4.53 trillion (≈ $5.12 trillion USD), up 0.2% in real terms from 2024.]
NESO Winter Outlook
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 30, 2026
Link to: Winter Outlook 2026/27: Helping to inform the electricity industry and prepare for the winter ahead.
By Staff, National Energy System Operator (NESO), October 2026
https://www.neso.energy/document/388726/download
From press release: To help understand how the electricity system could perform this winter, we test 30,000 scenarios that explore a range of possible conditions, from cold, still days with high electricity demand to milder, windier periods with more renewable generation. They also consider power station availability and electricity imports. By examining thousands of potential outcomes, we can build a complete picture of the risks and uncertainties ahead and help ensure the system is prepared for a wide range of winter conditions.
From Homewood: But just one minor problem – their outlook assumes the wind does not stop blowing!
As their report describes, they take into account “de-rated” margins. This is designed to allow for the fact that generators will never work 24/7. A CCGT plant, for instance, is assumed to be available for 90.5% of the time, as there are always breakdowns and planned maintenance.
Individual plants might be unavailable for days at a time, but across the whole CCGT fleet, we should be able to rely on at least 90.5% being available at any one time.
… NESO are assuming a de-rated factor of 16.5% for wind power, which works out at 5.4 GW.
We know that wind power across Britain sometimes drops well below 5.4 GW. Indeed only yesterday it ran at less than 3 GW for several hours:
In extremity, there have been some winters when wind power has dropped below 1 GW. Wind is so unreliable that it should not really even be factored into NESO’s contingency planning.
NESO winter outlook flattered by optimistic assumptions and new methodology
By Kathryn Porter, Watt-Logic, Oct 27, 2026
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]
He Who Pays the Piper Calls the Tune
Independence is in the eye of the beholder
By Mark Hodgson, Climate Scepticism, Oct 28, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to report: The Economic Impact of Scotland’s Renewable Energy Sector – 2026 Update
By Brodie Gillan, et al., Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde, October 2026
The report was commissioned by Scottish Renewables.
We estimate that the renewable energy industry had a direct turnover of £8.3 billion and approximately 13,500 FTE jobs in 2023, rising to a direct turnover of £9.0 billion and approximately 16,800 FTE jobs in 2024.
The renewable energy sector is not currently defined in National Statistics.
Net zero added £140.3bn to our electricity bills. Nobody official counts it.
The first Affordable Energy report prices Britain’s electricity twice, and asks Parliament to make the Government do the sum every year.
By Richard Lyon, The State of Britain by Richard Lyon, Oct 26, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshaw]
https://richardlyon.substack.com/p/net-zero-added-1403bn-to-our-electricity
The budget and energy bills
The nothing burger now has a gherkin in it
By Jit, Climate Scepticism, Oct 28, 2026 [H/t Bernier Kepshire]
Just Think: We Could Have Been Energy Independent
A land of ample coal, oil and gas, and the UK’s governments (but not AI data centres) have put their trust in fickle wind and day-time only sun
By Ivor Williams, Right Times, Oct 28, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
China alone shoves out nearly one third of total greenhouse gas emissions. Add the USA, India and Russia and you’re up to over half the world’s total. The minute amounts from each of the other couple of hundred countries make up the remainder.
Energy Issues – Australia
Decline is a Choice
Originally published in Quadrant Online, October 2026
By Anan Moran, Regulatory Review, Oct 26, 2026
More important than the direct costs to consumers of electricity from Australian government policies is the effect on competitiveness. By raising energy costs, the Net Zero emissions policy has hollowed out the nation’s industrial capacity.
Wind Turbines vs Nature: How Reckless Renewables Are Destroying the Environment
From beaches to old-growth forests, wind farms are destroying the environment in the name of saving it, says Sandra Bourke. Greens are turning their backs as reckless renewables industrialize the natural world.
By Sandra Bourke, The Daily Sceptic, Oct 25, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Steven and I belong to the first: an environmental movement that protects places,
Australia is running an experiment no other country is attempting. The Left-wing Labor Government, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, has legislated a 43% emissions cut by 2030 and Net Zero by 2050, with 82% renewable electricity by 2030. Nuclear power remains banned by law, an option most major economies pursuing Net Zero – or simply affordable, reliable energy – retain.
Energy Issues — US
MISO Obliterates Solar, Storage, and Wind Capacity Values
By Isaac Orr and Mitch Rolling, Energy Bad Boys, Via WUWT, Oct 25, 2026
There is perhaps no better case study showing the impact of right-sizing the capacity values of wind and solar than the slide deck released by the Northern Indiana Public Service Corporation (NIPSCO) on October 20th, 2026 for a workshop outlining its Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).
This means that Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger’s efforts to lower PJM’s soaring capacity prices by building new onshore wind, offshore wind, and fast-tracking solar projects will effectively prioritize the resources with the worst capacity values, providing the least relief to electricity customers.
Restricting Diesel Exports Would Back Fire on American Consumers
By David Holt, Real Clear Energy, Oct 27, 2026
But a quick fix that sounds good on paper can become an expensive mistake in practice. A decision to restrict exports, on the surface, appears to be a straightforward way to keep more fuel in the U.S.
The U.S. produces more diesel than it uses, enough to meet demand at home and supply our allies in Europe and Latin America. Handcuffing the American refiners’ ability to sell diesel overseas would push our domestic storage tanks and distribution outlets to capacity. What happens then?
John ‘Halloween’ Holdren Remembered (exaggeration, failed prognostications should not be forgotten)
By Robert Bradley Jr, Master Resource Oct 30, 2026
https://www.masterresource.org/holdren-john/holdren-halloween-2026/
Ed. Note: John Holdren is a fading name in the climate/energy debate. But he was Paul Ehrlich’s protégé and coauthor in the 1970s, and he had a two-term (eight year) appointment (2009–2017) as President Obama’s top science advisor. Holdren infamously politicized the third U.S. National Climate Assessment (2014), the sixth assessment of which promises to be more balanced under new authorship. Holdren dismissed Robert L. Bradley Jr. in a 2003 email exchange as “lacking both discernible qualifications in the real world and the ability to tell a good argument from a bad one,” perhaps an example of expert failure.
[SEPP Comment: The piece may be too personal, but Bradeley is honest when he included the quote in italics. With unsubstantiated claims, often contradicted by physical evidence, the Obama administration promoted immense damage to the US energy system.]
AI Issues
Data Centers Soar Despite Opposition
By Steve Goreham, Master Resource, Oct 29, 2026
https://www.masterresource.org/goreham-steve/despite-opposition-data-center-soars/
[SEPP Comment: It is premature to draw conclusions, but data center promoters (Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and others) promise great amounts of money. Previously, most of them promoted unreliable wind and solar power and stuck the general consumer with the bill.]
Much of the AI-will-kill-us-all scare is driven by a charity movement gone crazy
By David Wojick, CFACT, Oct 26, 2026
Those Who Oppose Data Centers Will Someday Regret Their Short-Sighted Choices
By Gary Abernathy, Real Clear Energy, Oct 23, 2026
Grid AI Needs an Operating Envelope Before It Gets Control
By Gleb Tsipursky, Real Clear Energy, Oct 26, 2026
Finnish police launch criminal probe over forest cleared for Google data center
By Finya Swai, The Hill, Oct 29, 2026
https://thehill.com/policy/technology/6182316-google-finland-data-center-investigation/
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Britain’s North Sea Gas Field Approval Marks Another Win for the Iron Law of Electricity
Jackdaw today with Rosebank approval looming in the future as Britain Takes an important step away from Net Zero insanity.
By Leslie Eastman, Legal Insurrection, Oct 26, 2026
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Scroby Sands is Running Aground
Decommissioning cost for one offshore wind turbine 6X the forecast rate for remaining 29 turbines and subsidies ending soon.
By David Turver, Eigen Values, Oct 25, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire
Scientists reveal the staggering number of bat deaths at wind turbines
By Paul Arnold, Phys.org, Oct 27, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: The scope and severity of bat fatalities at US wind energy facilities
By Charles J. Labuzzetta, et al., PNAS, Oct 26, 2026
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2612674123
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Renewable Fuel Follies
By Jonathan Lesser, Real Clear Energy, Oct 28, 2026
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2026/10/28/renewable_fuel_follies_1213918.html
Link to report: Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Program: Standards for 2026 and 2027, Partial Waiver of 2025 Cellulosic Biofuel Volume Requirement, and Other Changes
Regulatory Impact Analysis
By Staff, EPA, March 2026
https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2026-03/420r26011.pdf
From Lesser: The 2007 legislation directed total renewable volumes to increase from four billion gallons in 2006 to 36 billion gallons by 2022, with the EPA to determine levels thereafter. The RFS goals also changed, adding an emphasis on reducing pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.
Economic and technological realities intervened. Producing advanced biofuels proved to be more difficult and costly than politicians imagined. Consequently, the EPA reduced the mandated quantities. Next year, the EPA will require just over 27 billion gallons of biofuels, renewable diesel, and ethanol. Politics has taken precedence over whether these annual goals are advisable let alone technically achievable.
Telegraph Falls For Synthetic Gas Con
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 27, 2026
To replace the 800 TWh of natural gas we use every year, you would need about twice as much electricity. The UK currently generates around 300 TWh a year.
Using intermittent wind and solar energy makes the economics of a synthetic gas plant hopelessly inefficient. And you would have to find a way of storing gas made from surplus solar power in summer, for it to be used in winter.
So why is Rivan even viable?
It has been funded by a handful of wealthy venture funders. But ultimately, they and Rivan know that synthetic gas will never be profitable without massive subsidies from the Government.
California Dreaming
America closes refineries while the rest of the world races to build them
By Ronald Stein and Yoshihiro Muronaka, WUWT, Oct 30, 2026
The ripple reached California. The state has spent years making refining harder. Two refineries have recently closed, and more of the remaining seven are expected to follow. The gap is filled by imports, much of it from Asia. California’s policies did not reduce the state’s demand for refined products. They simply moved the source of those products across the Pacific—and into the path of a crisis on the other side of the world.
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Possible UK Energy Storage Systems
By Ally D. Gray, WUWT, Oct 27, 2026
[SEPP Comment: Comical illustrations of possible storage systems.]
More Magical Science: Fossil fuels are so powerful they prevented another ice age.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 24, 2026
Looks like to save the environment we need to bring back plastic straws
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 29, 2026
In 2023 we found out the paper straws have more ‘forever chemicals’ than plastic straws. While plastic straws have the Teflon style (PFAS) ‘forever chemicals’ — the paper straws had even more of them. Some researchers wondered (politely) if this was due to contamination, other suggested that since the chemicals were found in 90% of paper straws they probably had a role in keeping the paper straws “waterproof”.
Severe Weather Warnings
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 28, 2026
It said:
SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST
The weather here is perfectly quiet, dry, and still. No rain is forecast, and winds are at 12 mph. There is no bad weather forecast on the way over the moors to Manchester either.
Checking the Met Office warnings for today, strong winds are forecast in the far north of Scotland. And that’s it!
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