Canada is Our Energy Friend

By Robert Bradley Jr.

Ed. Note: A new study released by the Institute for Energy Research (IER), “Counting Canada Wrong: The Hidden Surplus Behind the Headline Deficit” (September 2026), makes a case that official trade statistics should treat “discounted raw materials from allies the same as imported finished goods from adversaries.” The present accounting “[has] misdirected Washington’s attention and obscured how international commerce truly affects American manufacturing.” The introduction to this study follows.

“While trade deficits are often a flashpoint when foreign nations undercut domestic manufacturing, the headline deficit with Canada tells a deceiving story. A closer look reveals a trade arrangement that overwhelmingly favors American production, energy independence, and industrial power.”

Putting America First requires trade metrics that accurately reflect industrial strength, strategic independence, and the value of American workers and manufacturers. However, for decades, official trade figures that treat discounted raw materials from allies the same as imported finished goods from adversaries have misdirected Washington’s attention and obscured how international commerce truly affects American manufacturing.

While trade deficits are often a flashpoint when foreign nations undercut domestic manufacturing, the headline deficit with Canada tells a deceiving story. A closer look reveals a trade arrangement that overwhelmingly favors American production, energy independence, and industrial power. Unlike geopolitical rivals and adversaries that export finished consumer goods, a significant share of U.S. imports from Canada are in the form of raw, unprocessed commodities that are the feedstock for American production and manufacturing. Notably, oil, natural gas, potash, and increasingly, critical minerals account for most of these materials, and the U.S. has historically imported them at significant discounts relative to benchmark prices.

Once America imports these low value raw inputs, American workers provide the processing and refining that turn them into high-value, domestically manufactured consumer goods, driving U.S. job creation and industrial output.

Securing discounted Canadian crude oil, natural gas, potash, and critical minerals breaks our dependence on hostile foreign cartels like OPEC+, supports American farmers and workers, and secures discounted supply chains needed for American manufacturing dominance. Looking only at the total Canadian import bill risks overlooking where jobs and economic prosperity are ultimately created.

For energy, fertilizers, and raw or unfinished metals, the value captured from importing relatively low-cost Canadian production also improves the overall U.S. trade balance globally by allowing the U.S. to sell finished goods at a premium. In the end, these imported, low-cost Canadian inputs fuel U.S. high-value exports to the rest of the world.

Given these raw goods’ contribution to American exports, it is worth considering whether to adopt an alternate perspective on the U.S.-Canada trade balance. Historically, U.S. customs law has treated foreign inputs as “originating” in the imported country when substantial transformation occurs, such as when raw goods are refined or manufactured into high-value finished goods.

Preferential Trade Agreements, such as the United States-Canada-Mexico Agreement (USMCA), codify the substantial transformational analysis into detailed rules of origin (ROO) that require certain percentages of content to come from the trade region (i.e., Regional Value Content or RVC), shifts in tariff classifications, and, increasingly, use certain percentages of goods (e.g., steel and aluminum) and labor valued at certain rates. Rebalanced and reciprocal trade policy needs to go an additional step forward. Specifically, U.S. trade frameworks should recognize that America’s ability to produce a trade surplus is built on the oil, natural gas, potash, and critical minerals relationship between Canada and the U.S.

The U.S. should designate these Canadian inputs that undergo substantial transformation in U.S. manufacturing facilities, which are typically operated by the same or related companies that perform the raw materials’ production, as domestic goods under U.S. laws and regulations. Rather than allowing U.S. trade figures to continue to mask the positive impacts of certain Canadian imports, trade figures should treat these as domestic goods. Acknowledging this reality would virtually eliminate the trade deficit with Canada and refocus trade policy on creating more opportunity and growth for American workers.