By Vijay Jayaraj
A recent memorandum of understanding between Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith represents the inevitable reassertion of economic necessity over the fantasy of “decarbonization” that has gripped Ottawa for the past decade.
Allowing for the construction of a pipeline to transport Albertan oil to a Pacific export terminal, the agreement prompted the resignation of one liberal member of parliament and celebration from the province’s leader. “This is a great day for Alberta,” declared Smith.
Alberta is a major vessel in Canada’s economic bloodstream. The province’s energy sector generates $88 billion in annual gross domestic product (GDP), which is 25% of the Alberta’s total economic output. This revenue flows east to the national capital to fund federal transfers that support public finances of other provinces, some of which oppose the oil production that provides them cash.
Atlantic Canada, parts of Quebec and even Ontario benefit from royalties and tax revenues generated by hydrocarbons extracted thousands of miles away. So-called moral objections to oil sands development are often voiced by inhabitants of Halifax or Montreal, but rarely heard is a willingness to forgo the western revenue that keeps hospitals open and public payrolls funded.
So, it was financial reality that drove Carney to upend expectations established by countless government documents, climate pledges, and regulatory frameworks the previous government put in place to “save the planet” by discouraging the use of fossil fuels.
Canada’s climate industrial complex had predicted that pipelines would become stranded assets and that Alberta would fade into irrelevance as net zero became federal policy. However, the deal signed by Carney moves in the opposite direction, making provisions for new infrastructure and signaling that even Canada’s most climate-obsessed federal leadership cannot govern without fossil fuels.
In technical terms, the federal cap on oil and gas emissions has been suspended. The Clean Electricity Regulation – a proposed constraint on Alberta’s ability to generate affordable power – has been loosened. Timelines for reducing methane emissions have been extended beyond 2030. Yes, there are caveats that appear to impose a soft form of anti-carbon sentiment, but the overall picture has changed.
The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, a publicly funded institution, has consistently parroted environmental advocates who treat fossil fuels as abominations rather than economic necessities. This messaging has convinced many Canadians that their government is committing a terrible sin by producing energy the world demands. Lost on them is the fact that Canadian oil and natural gas are produced under far more stringent standards than exist in the Middle East, Russia or other regions.
Energy abundance underpins prosperity. Nations that constrain their energy supply impoverish themselves. Nations that produce reliable, affordable energy benefit their populations and the broader world. Canada should produce the energy for itself and export the surplus to global markets.
Beyond energy economics, there is another dimension to Canada’s economic future that the legacy climate orthodoxy dismisses: agriculture. Canada’s warming climate has extended growing seasons across the prairies and opened new agricultural possibilities.
According to official data, “total wheat production rose 11.2% year over year to a record 40 million (metric tons) in 2025, surpassing the previous record set in 2013.” Canola production rose 13%, surpassing a record set in 2017. Barley and oat production rose 19% and 17%, respectively.
In all, the output for all principal field crops increased by 4% year-over-year. For the next crop year (2025-2026), total production is projected to reach near record levels, up 3% year-over-year and 8% above the previous five-year average.
Historical analysis demonstrates that climate conditions across Canadian agricultural regions have shifted toward longer growing seasons, with more frost-free days and expanded viable crop zones.
Critics will claim that allowing a new pipeline is a betrayal of future generations. But what truly endangers posterity? A fraction of a degree of warming that extends growing seasons? Or a future of energy scarcity, deindustrialization and economic stagnation?
Fearmongering about a “climate emergency” served only to empower a bureaucratic class intent on controlling consumption and taxing lifestyles. It did nothing to change atmospheric physics or the needs of people who rely on affordable energy to survive.
Originally published in American Thinker on January 16, 2026.
Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Associate at the CO2 Coalition, Fairfax, Virginia. He holds an M.S. in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia and a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University, both in the U.K., and a bachelor’s in engineering from Anna University, India. He served as a research associate with the Changing Oceans Research Unit at University of British Columbia, Canada.
Albertan here, and I don’t fully share the optimism in this article. There are still significant regulatory hurdles to clear, not to mention a wingnut in BC’s Premier office and all the First Nations who get stirred up against any pipeline development (though many other First Nations are supportive).
The MOU is a step in the right direction, and broadly across Canada, polls are starting to show that people support it, so there is reason for hope, but I think we need to do a lot of clean-up on other issues before any trench will start being dug.
Vijay,
another albertan here. Have to backup puckhog post.
Basically that MOU, is a piece of paper, and wasn’t worth the ink written on it.
Lip service only. To much opposition still in BC.
Signed separation petition on Saturday, they already have the required number of signatures to force the referendum. We hopefully will just separate from Canada, it’s a lost cause.
Alberta will make a wonderful 51st state!
What about Greenland!
Too small for a state with only 50K people. But, if that’s the price they insist on, let’em have it!
Hey, just force a referendum and pay every Greenlander voter $5million to vote for US annexation. Cheap at twice the price. It would work in Canada too except there are 45 million of ‘em. Besides, when the planned Greenland “Golden Dome” short range nuclear tipped interceptors go off in front of the incoming Russian ICBM’s there wont be any Greenlander people or banks left, so really US would get Greenland for free. Trump wants to save millions of lives in NY and DC. I worship you, Bully boy!!
Not really sure if this scenario should be /s’d or not…
Total bonkers. Indeed: have a referendum in Greenland. It will be negative for the US who will say that it doesnt matter, because people’s sovereignty has NEVER mattered to the US. ‘We’ want it, so..
That’s the bully talking. If you like that sort of thing you are a moron.
You gotta admit, Trump has brass balls.
Trump Crosses Denmark’s Red Line? Shows Greenland As US Territory, Leaks ‘NATO Ally’s Message’
Well maybe that’s a plan if you make us about 14 new states and move the federal capital to Winnipeg.
Hey don’t seperate too fast, I’m still in the process of moving back 😉
Good luck with the petiton, although one critical problem would remain: 90% of Albertas oil goes to the US. Not a good idea of having just one customer…
Really? Still 90% now that Trans Mountain expansion is flowing?
It’s better than no customer for oil that doesn’t get pumped. btw, the US is the biggest market in the world. It’s not like your only customer is Lichtenstein.
Better get back here quickly, I think this separation will happen at a fast rate
Send it south to the U.S. refineries. Apparently, these refineries are better suited for heavy crude. Reminds me of an article I read about New Mexico and their oil industry. When the environmentalists were pushing the Governor to reduce this resource in favor of solar and wind, a quick examination revealed this industry provided much in state revenue. New Mexico not being an economic powerhouse realized that was not a good idea. Perhaps greater Canada might come to realize Alberta is a large revenue generator and greater Canada is a net beneficiary. Time will tell. But, no reason at the moment to be at all optimistic. As a side bar, aggravating to have to live amongst these irrational and rather selfish people depriving Canadians a descent quality of life and prosperity.
The caveats in this memorandum don’t do much to remove the roadblocks that have stymied pipeline construction in Canada during the ideological reign of Justin Trudeau. Although Carney tries to distance himself from his predecessor, he’s long been on the net-zero, anti-oil wagon. That makes his recent turn suspect, and, indeed, it has been just words so far. He’s signaling openness to pipeline development, but signaling and obstruction were hallmarks of the Trudeau government.
Yes –
“take no notice of what they say, look at what they DO”
is the best approach with the Carney liberals.
Quite right, actually. What Carney is doing is forcing out all of the environmentalist deadwood out of the federal cabinet. Freeland, Blair and Guilbeault are all gone. Wilkinson is gone, and the useless Melanie Jolie was demoted out of Foreign Affairs.There have been other changes, but those are the big ones. The Net Zero gang is officially and publicly gone out of Cabinet right now.
Of much more immediate impact, the Justin Trudeau carbon tax on gasoline and diesel fuel is gone. (This ending of the carbon tax is why the Conservatives lost the last election.)
As for more public evidence, Canada sent no delegation to the UNFCCC meeting in Brazil last year, For all practical purposes, this means that Canada has no intention of meeting any of the Paris Accord emission reductions or producing a national plan of any kind.
So, yes, it’s very much the case of ignore the rhetoric and pay attention to what Carney does. The environmentalist lobby in Ottawa is very unhappy with the federal government right now. They are even more unhappy with Ontario’s building new nuclear reactors, but that’s another story.
“take no notice of what they say, look at what they DO”
Likewise DJT.
Carney is a detestable globalist. Although the mainstream media say he met with the BC coastal first nations leaders, that is not correct, he met with the leaders of an activist NGO group that have no say or authority in real governance of the indigenous lands, just more typical Laurentian elite liberal party smoke and mirrors
The globalists used the energy transition idea as a vehicle of control in which they made the rules. Now that it has backfired they are jumping off as fast as they have jumped on. Their interest is power. Trump’s interest is Ego driven..
Carney might be a detestable globalist but an intelligent one, unlike the POTUS.
Recognizing the Green Blob is bugf**k mad, and totally removed from economic reality, is just the first step.
They are also out of power now in Canada.
not entirely, I would suggest.
Just biding their time, lurking in the ambush positions of the Tides Foundation, Native councils, etc.
Temporary ‘give’ to keep the populace quiet. I don’t think Canada’s Marxist overseers will allow this to happen. Their plan is for the world to first go One World Government and have control of all the energy before announcing AGW was really a big mistake so they can dig and pump and meter out all the energy.
They won’t announce that AGW was a mistake. Not ever. They will just dig and pump out all the energy – for themselves only – once it’s theirs.
If Ottawa reneges, watch out for the creation of an independent Alberta and possibly Saskatchewan. Republics are possible, but I’d prefer new Dominions myself.
The secession demand will remain present, but I can’t see it ever actually happening.
A similar sentiment has been alive for decades in Western Australia, again a relatively low population state that produces and contributes an oversized share of AU exports income (iron ore, other minerals, agriculture) that is ‘re-purposed’ to prop up other states.
Ahh, but Oz doesn’t have a wealthy neighbor called Uncle Sugar.
I’m pretty sure Indonesia would be more than pleased to have WA as a “friendly” source of minerals, produce, live sheep & cattle, etc.
Alberta’s neighbor has many advantages.
GDP, military, transportation links, international economic clout, language, USA is light years ahead of Indonesia. They’re not even in the same league.
You know who are in the same league or even higher? BRICS. That’s the majority of the global population, now almost fully independent from the US. The ship the US bully cannot force trajectory. Trying it will make it worse..
Take a look where Indonesia is located..
Nothing is going to happen until BC cancels UNDRIP.
British Columbia implemented the UN Declaration of Rights of Indigenous Peoples. No major projects can happen without indigenous approval. And with several hundred different indian bands, there is always one group that will veto a project. Not to mention land claims. 150% of the province is claimed by various indigenous groups, because their traditional territories overlap.
Here’s a recent article from the local newspaper.
Coastal First Nations hold firm on opposition to bitumen pipeline during meeting with Carney
‘Coastal First Nations, along with the Lax Kw’alaams and the Haisla Nation oppose any project that proposes to bring oil tankers to the North Coast.’ – Marilyn Slett, president of the Coastal First Nations and Chief Councillor of the Heiltsuk Nation.
https://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/coastal-first-nations-opposition-bitumen-pipeline-mark-carney
The said “Costal First Nations” turns out to be an NGO funded by the usual suspects. They are just an environmental group.
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/carney-coastal-first-nations-environmentalist-group
Is this true if any project isn’t going to be on or passing through their tribal lands? Or do they take the position that all of Canada is their tribal land?
British Columbia is the only province that has implemented UNDRIP. But Washington State indian bands are also making land claims in BC, because their traditional territories crossed the border, before the border was in place.
Let’s always bear something in mind – billions of dollars worth of foreign oil comes into Canada down the St Lawrence seaway, much of which is sourced from countries with limited to no environmental controls. Zip diddly squat is said about this by the same eastern Canadians that insist on completely different standards for western oil. This isn’t so much a struggle about CO2 as it is a struggle about power and domination, and the east staying on top. It has been so since confederation, and will not change without revolution.
The same blindness here in Wokeachusetts regarding forestry. This state tries hard to limit any tree cutting in the name of you know- saving the planet. Most wood used here comes from God only knows where- not from the millions of acres of unmanaged forests in this state.
Most of that wood product in the form of pulp and paper comes from Quebec just to the north. Mostly because of low transport costs from shorter distance than overseas.
I think you mean for the benefit of Quebec, which has an inordinate hold over the minds of the Liberals
A pipeline from Alberta to Canada’s west coast would be for the purpose of exporting Canadian oil to Asia. It is possible that some portion of Alberta’s oil which has been be refined in Asia will then be shipped to California to cover that state’s gasoline and diesel shortfalls as more refineries are forced to close in that state.
I would ask this question. How much of the MOU concerning the pipeline is tied to Mark Carney’s decision not to play ball with President Trump over US-Canada trade negotiations, and instead to focus upon developing a long-term economic partnership with the Chinese, a partnership which over a decade or so will eventually result in Canada becoming a mercantile colony of China?
What is so attractive about Maoism? Why do Canadians want to freeze in the dark so they can be communist lackeys? Why are so many people so stupid?
No, it doesn’t make sense. Up in Greenland the Germans forgot to bring gloves.
The CCP as it exists today isn’t Maoist/Communist per se. Whatever ideological connection the CCP now has to the Red China of the 1950’s and 1960’s is a veneer facade covering a massive centrally-organized state corporation built upon the globalist economic model.
China today is basically a gigantic multi-national, multi-sector corporation acting as a principal participant in what the World Economic Forum promotes as the new economic world order.
It’s no surprise that Mark Carney, as a WEF economic globalist, would reject Trump’s offer to end all trade barriers between the US and Canada in return for a US commitment to help Canada bring manufacturing back to the North American continent.
As a WEF globalist, Carney will instead embrace China as Canada’s long term economic partner, doing so in a way which eventually leaves China as the mover and shaker controlling Canada’s economic future, and possibly Canada’s political future.
Phases of Marxism
Fascism – govt control of business and capital
Socialism – govt ownership of business and capital
Communism – communal private ownership of business and capital
There has never been a major country that implemented Marxism that has progressed beyond Socialism even if named “Communist”. Once the govt bureaucracy gets large enough to own the country’s business and capital, that bureaucracy is NEVER going to give up that power. The only thing that ever changes is the chief bureaucratic head – and that change is usually violent.
So true.
Once established and operational, the only core purpose a bureaucracy pursues is to keep itself funded, growing, and controlling its political ‘masters’.
It’s got nothing to do with WEF globalism. It has everything to do with the relentless hostility of the Trump administration to Canada.
Have to disagree cgh.
The WEF globalism indoctrination school has spawned lifelong adherents to the agenda that the world’s sovereign nations must be sublimated, and all governance must be centralized in a kind of super-UN.
All unelected of course.
Not my problem if you have no understanding of how Canada works or doesn’t work.The WEF fratboys have nothing to do with politics in Canada. Or its economy.
AI says, “Mark Carney has strong ties to the World Economic Forum (WEF), serving on its Foundation Board, attending its Davos meetings (including currently as Canadian PM in 2026 to attract investment), and contributing to WEF discussions on climate and finance, leveraging his central banking and policy expertise to engage with global leaders and business elites at the annual gathering.”
well, here’s a list of the Canadian politicians and other political wannabes that have worshipped at the WEF..
Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum has boasted that half of the current Canadian government has ties to the WEF.
And it looks like there’s as many fratGIRLS as there as fratboys.
Maybe they’re the ones who have the most engagement with politics in Canada?
https://action4canada.com/canadians-with-wef-ties/
https://rumble.com/vw93e5-mega-boom-schwabs-global-shapers-network-exposed.html
Check out this research.
Trump is not hostile to Canada…
… only to the clueless socialist/globalist twerps Canadians stupidly elected.
You are overstating your argument..Your assertions are flawed. It is propaganda..
“How much of the MOU concerning the pipeline is tied to Mark Carney’s decision not to play ball with President Trump…”?
None of it. Alberta has been demanding this for more than a decade. The problem was that Justatwit was Prime Minister for a decade and a collection of environmentalist goons in Cabinet. They forced the cancelation of three major pipeline projects to deliberately curtail any export of Canadian oil and gas.
Well, they are all gone now, some of them having quite public hissy fits, particularly Stevie Gumboots. The Deputy Prime Minister Freeland fled into exile to Ukraine.The former Minister of Natural Resources Wilkinson from BC has been dumped out of Cabinet.
Yes, in Canada, it’s been a very thorough purge of the environmentalists.
FYI, There has been for many decades a pipeline from Alberta to Burnaby, BC which exports ca. 800,000 bpd of oil.
The new pipeline proposal will go to Kitimat for the export of a oil made from tar sands bitumen.
“Canada becoming a mercantile colony of China?”.
I wonder why americans talk this language. I hope they realize that the US considers their trading partners as colonies themselves and punish anyone who dares to resist, using bully tactics. We have seen this in the trade deals w the EU in which the EU basically rolled over and surrendered for fear of a worse outcome.
As far as i know the chinese have not used bully tactics in their trade deals, certainly not in Canada’s case. So, this talk of a ‘Chinese colony’ makes no sense whatsoever..
For a Canada temperature check, I went to:
https://www.extremeweatherwatch/countries/canada/average-temperature-by-year. The Tmax and Tmin data from 1901 to 2024 are displayed in a table. Here is the temperature data for these two years:
Year——-Tmax——-Tmin
2024——-1.3——– -8.7
1901—– -0.7—— -10.3
Change-+2.0——-+1.6
Although there has been a slight warm up of 2.0° C since 1901, Canada is still the chilly cold Great White North with a Tmin of -8.7° C, and we will always need large amounts of fossil fuels to avoid freezing to death in the winter.
URL Correction: I left out: .com The URL should be:
https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/countries/canada/average-temperature-by-year.
If you go to the home page: https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com, you can obtain weather and climate data for all the Canadian provinces.
Temperature data for Canada for 2025 has not yet been posted.
Am I missing something? How does moving from minus 0.7 to minus 1.3 (i.e., minus 0.6) tmax and minus 10.3 to minus 8.7 (i.e., plus 1.6) tmin equate to “a warmup of 2 degrees?”
Someone studied arithmetic in school. 🙂
Yet another example of crappy government mindlessly interfering with the safety and comfort of its citizens. Get government out of the energy business.
When the perennially alarmist CBC admits and publicizes the fact that Canada’s 2030 emissions-reduction target is far out of reach, people should know that the network for once is being honest about the country’s losing battle on the issue. Instead of its being about halfway to its target of 40-45% reduction by that date, the real figure is actually 21%. And guess what: the vast majority of Canadians don’t give a damn whether it’s reached in the first place because they’ve seen that such efforts have led only to carbon pricing and various other eco-taxes plus higher prices for green products as well as potential mandates for EVs and similar manufactures. Canadians are concerned about economic growth first and foremost, and if a warming climate promotes increased crop production and import/export opportunities that’s fine with the realists. As for the green alarmists, let them be reminded that globally the human population has grown and prospered far more since the last Ice Age during warm periods, not cold ones.
Entirely true. This is why Justatwit and the most egregious of his Ministers are gone. This is why Canada didn’t bother to send a high level delegation to Belem last year. This is why the Canadian government has NOT prepared its plan of how it intends to meet the Paris Accord emission reductions. And in Canada’s case, the green ecofreaks have zero political power in seats in the House. The Green Party has exactly two members after decades of attempts.
Do Canadians talk among themselves about emission reductions? No one. It’s even gone out of style with the legacy media.
Alberta can always join the US as a new state. My visit in 2001 was great fun. Ft. McMurray was bursting its seams with oil money. It has grown strongly since that time. The Easterners are just jealous that they are on welfare while Alberta is on its way!
You weren’t there in winter, were you?
I have spent a lot of time North of the Arctic circle, including winter.
That particular visit was in early April, so winter had not left and the thaw was just starting.
Still, it was very enjoyable. Of course, I had delightful company too. That always helps.
Well, Carney’s talks w China has upset the americans because the US wants hegemony. Only if it benefits the US they will be for whatever is on the table. They will do everything to stop other countries who try and do the same. Independence is always punished. The US remains the main global aggressor. Some folks here seem to like that. Pathetic..
Trump said if Canada wants to make a deal with China, that’s ok with him.
It doesn’t sound like Trump wants to punish Canada’s independence.
I think you suffer from USA-DS.
Great article!!! And I agree! I have often donated to Greenpeace and other environmental groups, but as you well point out, how do we pay for it all?
I bet the increased CO2 in the air has a lot more to do with Canada’s increased crop yields than does the temperatures.
The Canadian temperatures were just as warm in the 1930’s as they are today, yet the crop yields didn’t increase much back then.
The difference between then and now is there was much less CO2 in the air in the 1930’s.
More CO2 in the air means greater plant growth. High temperatures are not the deciding factor here.
Well maybe…but its probably the annual 60 Ibs per acre of 11-48 nitrogen fertilizer wot dun it.
Let’s face it, a pipeline through America to the west coast of America is more likely than a pipeline to the west coast of BC.
“Today’s memorandum does not promise a pipeline will be built,” Poilievre added. “It promises that seven months from now, a pipeline proposal will be referred to a federal office for two further years of study.”
Time will tell.
Set the egg timer for 2 years 7 months.