Met Office Failed to Predict Dry Spring

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/c5y64p3m7pyo

We are heading for the driest Spring on record, and no doubt the climate con artists are already lining up their “blame it on global warming” stories.

If that were true, the Met Office would have been forecasting it three months ago, but in fact they did just the opposite:

All three months included in that Outlook – February, March and April were much drier than normal, a prospect the Met Office effectively dismissed at the end of January.

I have asked the Met Office to supply the March to May outlook, which does not pop up on Wayback, unlike the above one. When we get the actual numbers for May, I will update.

But these 3-Month Outlooks are clearly not worth the paper they are printed on if they cannot even predict weather events like this spring’s rainfall.

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May 14, 2025 10:09 pm

The very official and definitive answer to skeptics of greenhouse models and climate crunching spending is:
We can determine, using only our supercomputers, that summer is hotter than winter.

They really think it’s an answer. I’m talking about the best of the best in France.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  niceguy12345
May 15, 2025 6:56 am

They also say there is more sunshine during the day than during the night.

May 14, 2025 10:45 pm

Extracting energy from the wind will rob Europe of a precious resource- Moisture from the ocean depositing on land.

2025 March to June inclusive has the most sunlight over the NH since around 1500. Earth is 16,000km closer to the Sun right now than it was this time last year plus the Sun is at the peak of its output in the current cycle.

So many factors working against good spring rain in Europe. UK will not experience air stilling desertification as much as continental Europe. But slow onshore winds and you will reduce rain over land.

The best way to create a desert is to still the onshore wind with row after row of wind energy extractors and cut down all the trees to create space for the ones mounted on land.

How often does poorly advised governments cause unintended consequences.

Reply to  RickWill
May 14, 2025 10:51 pm

On the topic of bankable predictions, this fall will set new daily snowfall records across the northern hemisphere. Later summer and fall advection will be well above average. Locations that get below freezing will observe the increased advection as higher snowfall.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  RickWill
May 15, 2025 6:58 am

How often? Pushing 99.99999%

May 14, 2025 11:00 pm

The Met Office should either dust off their cristal ball or use freshly butchered chicken gutts instead of rubber replicas to make their predictions…might improve the results.

Or hire stock market analysts…as a friend of mine used to joke (in both ways).

May 14, 2025 11:20 pm

That’s unfair. Everybody knows the increasing uncertainty levels through a long term timeframe. To say “they cannot even predict..rainfall” is really silly. Beyond 5 days it is ensemble guesswork with high uncertainty. And i bloody detest the Met Office Climate Change section. But they overall do a good job w normal short term weather forecasts.. Fair is fair..

Reply to  ballynally
May 14, 2025 11:26 pm

Plus, they are now predicting higher chances of rain for the last week in may. But that’s still 10 days away so i never take that seriously. Just revisit after 5 days and see if it has changed..i still don’t fault them for that. They are ensemble models that have NOTHING to do with any form of climate change modeling.

And there is nothing the Met Office ‘dismissed’. It is just a model, Paul.

Reply to  ballynally
May 15, 2025 12:30 am

Are you not aware that the Met Office use the same model to predict both the weather and the climate?

Reply to  JeffC
May 15, 2025 12:56 am

Yes, they have a Unified Model. Its difficult to tell from their website whether all modules are used all the time, though. The graph implies the coupled aspects are only relevant in the long terms forecasts (ie Projections)

Reply to  TimTheToolMan
May 15, 2025 1:56 am

Indeed. The ‘climate’ models are obviously based on the long term projections (based on the influence of CO2). When they do short or medium term forecasts 5-14 days they just use ensemble models based on standard weather modeling.
To imply that they use a Unified model for both is..well… not correct. Simply because even the Met Office is smart enough to distinguish between the two.
Long term projections are based on trends.

John XB
Reply to  ballynally
May 15, 2025 4:45 am

To say “they cannot even predict..rainfall” is really silly.”

Er… weather forecasting is their job.

“Everybody knows the increasing uncertainty levels through a long term timeframe……… Beyond 5 days it is ensemble guesswork with high uncertainty.”

Oh I see. 5 days. Uncertainty. But the same outfit that cannot be certain in January make a Spring seasonal forecast, CAN be certain what weather will be in 50, 100, 500 years and it will be a catastrophic extinction event.

Got it. Thanks.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  ballynally
May 15, 2025 6:59 am

If true, and without verification I will accept it is true, the MET needs to get the EF out of climate alarmism and go back to their mission, which they once were rather proficient.

Nick Stokes
May 14, 2025 11:41 pm

Why is this article comparing the results for 2025 with the forecast for 2022?

Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 15, 2025 12:01 am

You are quite correct.
Here is the forecast for 2025

It says it has 0.8 times the normal chance of being dry.

So hardly ruling it out.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-fma-v2.pdf

Reply to  stevencarr
May 15, 2025 11:37 am

2.3 times the normal chance of being wet

Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 15, 2025 12:04 am

Here is March to May 2025, forecasting a 1.3 times normal chance those 3 months would be dry.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook_mam_v2.pdf

Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 15, 2025 2:13 am

On close inspection the linked PDF showed the feb-april forecast for 2025 as leaning to more mild, wet and windy than average which i think it was although i dont think it was milder.
Maybe Paul should come in and say something..

Reply to  ballynally
May 15, 2025 11:40 am

Feb was mild, March and April very mild, more so with max rather than min temp’s:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-temperature-rainfall-and-sunshine-time-series

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 15, 2025 7:01 am

Good catch.

Curious George
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 15, 2025 8:01 am

Isn’t it a standard BBC science?

Westfieldmike
May 15, 2025 12:07 am

Three days is the limit for an accurate forecast in Britain. We had a heavy shower the other night. Watered my spuds ok.

Reply to  Westfieldmike
May 15, 2025 2:01 am

It depends. Sometimes there is a higher probability of a longer trend with more atmospheric stability like the one we are in in the UK/IRE/ N western Europe. Before this one there was much greater instability when even the 3 day forecast changed every day. The Met office is of course fully aware of that.
And they do predict showers but of course cannot guarantee where or when they happen.

MrGrimNasty
May 15, 2025 12:49 am

It has been very dry, warm, and sunny.

The average maximum temperature in the CET is running very high for the year so far.

April alone was outstanding at +4.7C

May 15, 2025 4:05 am

I have asked the Met Office to supply the March to May outlook, which does not pop up on Wayback, unlike the above one.

Using my “Duck-Duck-Go Fu” led me to the following “user- / human-friendly” URL :
https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/SO_e7a1ca96-ccaa-4437-a316-f78a863db523/

NB : Now available up to “May 2025 to July 2025”.

You have to “click through the links” for two levels before reaching a “Download” icon for each individual PDF file, but it works with my (laptop) setup.

John XB
May 15, 2025 4:37 am

“on record” – as soon as I see that phrase I know it may be the truth, but it isn’t the whole truth and nothing but the truth.

May 15, 2025 6:45 am

Here in the UK I’m 67 years old and a fisherman , we’ve had dry years , wet years , warm years and cold years . Current dry spring is nothing out of the ordinary , two years ago we had lots of spring rain , several motor racing events I wanted to go to were cancelled as the grass parking areas were waterlogged

Bob
May 15, 2025 5:12 pm

Perhaps it would be helpful to hear if there is anything Met is useful for.