By David Holt
America stands at a historic energy crossroads that is arguably as critical to our future global leadership as was the completion of the Transcontinental Railway or the interstate highway system. The decisions we make today about our energy future will determine whether we lead or follow in the global AI revolution and whether we maintain our economic edge over China.
To understand the magnitude of what’s coming, we need to look at where we’ve been. From 1920-2021, America’s energy consumption grew fourfold – electricity consumption alone grew 100-fold – as we transformed from a developing industrial nation to the world’s leading economic superpower.
This massive expansion fueled unprecedented prosperity for American families, farmers, and businesses. It spurred incredible innovation, efficiency, and conservation in everything from transportation and distribution, medical care, the digital revolution, manufacturing, farming, textiles, milling, construction, appliances, plastics, and even personal leisure.
But something interesting happened in recent decades. After generations of steady growth, our energy consumption leveled off. Over the past 20 years, we actually saw a slight decline in total energy use – about 4% – despite continued economic and population growth. This plateau reflected improved efficiency and structural economic changes.
It also bred legislative and policy complacency, as evidenced by the fact that the North American Electricity Reliability Corp., responsible for ensuring a robust grid, has in recent years increasingly warned of greater imbalances to our power systems, leading to higher potential for blackouts and brownouts. In spite of these warnings, many political leaders have persisted in pursuing draconian energy mandates and excessive regulatory oversight that limit our ability to fully use all energy options.
The result is a once world-class power structure that has fallen behind, risking more expensive and less reliable energy for families and business all across the country.
Couple that bit of worrying news with the fact that we are now embarking on the single greatest change to our energy infrastructure in the past 100 years, with energy demand expected to increase dramatically in the coming years.
With the AI revolution upon us, energy forecasts now show we’re entering an era of explosive demand growth that will make the 20th century’s expansion look modest by comparison. Multiple analyses predict U.S. electricity demand will surge by 35-50% between now and 2040, with much of that growth concentrated in the next decade. We’re looking at annual growth rates approaching 3% – levels not seen since the 1980s.
This isn’t gradual change – it’s a fundamental shift that will stress our energy infrastructure beyond anything we’ve experienced. By some estimates, we’ll need to add 128 gigawatts of new electricity capacity in just the next five years. That’s like building power for 13 cities the size of New York, practically overnight.
What’s driving this unprecedented surge? In a word: data. The rise of artificial intelligence, advanced computing, and electrification are creating massive new power demands. Data centers alone could account for nearly half of new electricity demand by 2028. Companies like Meta are investing billions in facilities that stretch for miles and require dedicated power plants just to operate.
This brings us to the central challenge of our time: America cannot win the AI race without abundant, affordable, reliable energy. Full stop. America must win the AI race.
AI isn’t just energy-intensive – it is essentially energy transformed. Each ChatGPT query consumes roughly 10 times the energy of a standard Google search. The computing centers powering the AI revolution need enormous quantities of electricity that’s available 24/7 without interruption.
China understands this connection perfectly. They’re rapidly expanding their energy infrastructure – including coal, natural gas, nuclear, and renewables – to fuel their AI ambitions. They recognize that energy leadership and AI leadership are inseparable, and they’ve made both national priorities.
Meanwhile, we’ve spent years debating which energy sources should be allowed rather than focusing on the fundamental question of how to free the market to ensure we produce more of all types of energy at the lowest cost, most efficient, and reliable means possible. This policy failure in Washington and states such as California and New York over the past few years has produced predicable results: reliability problems, with power outages more than doubling since 2016, and electricity prices climbing to painful levels in states that restrict energy options.
By declaring a National Energy Emergency, President Trump’s administration has signaled a much-needed shift toward energy realism. By streamlining permitting, expanding domestic production across all energy sources, and establishing the National Energy Dominance Council, we’re finally aligning our energy policies with the massive challenges ahead.
That covers the big picture – but we need to move faster at the state and local levels to ensure we have policies right – policies which support expanded energy options and faster permitting approvals – all designed to hasten progress by advancing prudent, responsible energy choices.
The U.S. Energy Department estimates that data centers could account for 12% of our nation’s electricity demand by 2028 – triple their current load. If we can’t meet this demand with affordable, reliable energy, the economic consequences will be far-reaching and potentially severe.
Nations that succeed in the energy-AI nexus will dominate the global economy for generations. Those that fail will see their industries migrate to energy-abundant regions. The economic logic is inescapable – energy is foundational to prosperity, and prosperity follows energy abundance.
As AI becomes central to commerce, manufacturing, healthcare, defense, and everyday life, the pressure on our energy systems will intensify beyond anything in our history. Getting energy policy right is now more than just keeping the lights on – it’s about maintaining American leadership in the defining technological revolution of this era.
The path forward is clear: we need massive investment in new generation capacity across all energy sources. We need policies that facilitate energy abundance rather than artificially constraining supply. And we need to move with unprecedented speed.
The soaring demand projections we’re seeing aren’t just statistics – they’re a clarion call that America’s energy future must be built on pragmatism, not ideological preferences that take options off the table. Our families, farmers, small businesses, and national security depend on getting this right.
The energy decisions we make today will determine whether America leads the AI revolution or watches from the sidelines. Let’s choose leadership.
This article originally appeared at Real Clear Energy
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The Green Blob will do their utmost to
sabotage any reliable power supply.
And they’ll feel good about doing it.
The chaos you see in the US is partially because a lot of people and organizations no longer get blank checks from the federal government, as they did under Yellen.
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The US Treasury now requires any payment request to have:
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1) a line item of the law that authorizes it (if no money is left, no payment is made), and
2) a routing number indicating the recipient (if the recipient appears shady, no payment is made).
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Many Congress folks, etc., are no longer asking their favorite, corrupt bureaucrats to make “payment requests”. That reduces federal deficit spending
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Now you know why Democrats say, all is Musk/DOGE’s fault, burn Teslas, demonstrate in the street, assault ICE officials to forcefully enter an ICE detention facility. CREATE CHAOS.
One of my favorite fuels is 80% hydrogen* and the remaining 20% makes a good plant food. I identify it as green.
Atoms/molecule basis
I prefer something with more carbon in it, to help maintain or add to atmospheric CO2 levels.
Coal is around 80% C
Green methane. I like it!
Europe, including the UK, and Australia and Canada are screwed by their energy policies with little hope of meeting AI demand for reliable electrical generation. That leaves Russia, China, India and the US as prime AI developers and data center management. This puts the world in a perilous situation. I hope it makes the party out of power think twice before trying to stop the construction of new fossil fuel power plants.
We are doomed until the UK ditches Nut Zero and the mad politics that have dominated British life since Thatcher.
Brother, can you spare a dime for a once great nation?
Twice the population of California and too big to govern?
Hopefully, this would not be some form of Absolutely Idiotic computer program which informed me that surrounding frozen CO2 with CO2 at 20 C, resulted in the gaseous CO2 getting hotter, and the frozen CO2 getting colder!
Still, the ignorant and gullible will no doubt clamour to spend vast sums of other peoples’ money to churn out enormous quantities of complete nonsense, convinced that –
Maybe the US could instead concentrate on producing high-quality products which I would want to buy. I recently purchased a product from a company which was “Proudly American since 1927.” – Made in China!
I don’t know whether the following is true, but –
and so on. I have a number of Apple products – I know a few of them at least, were shipped directly from China. The US will do whatever it wants, and I suppose I’m only grumbling because specialised spares for US manufactured equipment can be very expensive. Eventually, I’ll probably be better off discarding the US product, and all its ancillaries, and buying from, say, China. Equal or better quality – cheaper, standardised accessories, faster delivery times, etc., etc., etc.
Sad but true.
End of rant.
Aaaargh! Don’t know where all that bold came from! Maybe AI put it in for me?
You can edit it.
Thanks Joseph. I thought I had, but obviously I was mistaken.
“The energy decisions we make today will determine whether America leads the AI revolution or watches from the sidelines.”
By that logic, the energy decisions we made yesterday have determined that America leads the space race, globalism, the Internet revolution and most other technology that mattered pre COVID – I hope we didn’t eat too many fries in the early 2000’s and let one of the Asian countries pass us for AI.
When it comes to AI, watching from the sidelines might be a beneficial strategy.
The actual quote is
AI is just one part of the growth. And a relatively small part too, compared to industry and transport.
Not really related to the quote, but the idea of “per person” lead to us population projection search, which lead to 2080 – that’s when the U.S. Census Bureau’s US population projection chart peaks. So at 2040, the quoted year, USA will still be growing. I’m not worried because I’ve been told we’ll have Fusion energy by then. Too cheap to meter?
“Without energy abundance, America loses the AI race”
Without abundant energy, we’ll lose a lot more than that. But for the Left, that’s the whole point.
The only good ideas to appear in China were stolen from the west.
Once the west grows a spine and puts a stop to theft of intellectual property their ability to innovate and advance their technology will wither and die.
May the Trump be with you.
Inventions like paper, the compass, the printing press, gunpowder, pasta all came from China and were stolen by the west. Not to mention silk and tea. In return Britain declared war on China in order to force them to allow imports of Opium and the addiction of millions of people. History is a lot more nuanced than your simple statement suggests.
All true, and all irrelevant. Those were a long time ago. If we look at recent history and China’s explosion onto the world scene as a tech super power, it is all based on stolen IP. They are a police state in which any dissent from top down run narratives is quickly squashed. New ideas do not get a chance to thrive, they have to come from outside.
Large companies (American or otherwise) suffer the same problem. Once they reach a certain size, rates of innovation slow down. They keep pace by buying starts ups. China keeps pace by stealing ideas from western start ups.
So what does it look like in 20 years? It seems like you’re arguing for a nothing burger.
Maybe the US could catch up by stealing products actually developed and marketed by the Chinese?
Or, like Apple, have their products manufactured in a country where you have a skilled workforce, supported by cutting edge technology, who can even produce tiny screws at a reasonable price.
It’s easy to see why the US government does its best to prevent the population from being exposed to Chinese motor vehicles, for example.
Or even Japanese kei cars – although at least one state is allowing them on the road. They might be small, economical, and practical – how un-American is that?
Oh well, you can always buy a cutting edge Tesla Cybertruck – show those thieving Chinese what a real truck is!
Just having a wry smile – all countries blame their woes on someone else.
I’ve spent 40 years in the technology industry watching companies get destroyed by Chinese companies launched with stolen IP. I spent some of those years tasked with preventing the IP from being stolen. This isn’t some minor thing we’re talking about to blame our woes on. This is a country that is seeking global dominance through many avenues, one of them being stolen IP.
David, presumably you disagree with me, but you don’t know how to express your disagreement in clear English. You say –
and the companies which you watched getting “destroyed” were obviously not run by people as smart as the Chinese, by your account. You say you were tasked with preventing the theft of IP, but were not very good at it, apparently. Only joking, of course.
I think what you might be saying is that destroying a foreign company is fine if you are American, not so fine the other way round.
I believe an American (Harry S Truman) said –
Maybe America should go back to growing grain, herding cattle and digging stuff out of the ground. Protecting IP and producing consumer goods of higher quality and cheaper than other countries seems beyond your capability.
No use complaining to me. I just buy things that seem good value.
My English was quite clear. I believe having your head planted firmly in the sand is muffling your hearing.
You are shooting your mouth off about a shadow war to which I have had a front seat and you haven’t.
Well, that’s a rambling serving of word salad, to be sure.
I’m not in favour of war – unlike you. Good luck.
Stolen is a strong word to use for those products that occurred centuries ago. There were no patent offices. And nobody in China cared. Those products were copied, not stolen. What happened regarding those products is “a lot more nuanced than your simple statement suggests”.
Silk and tea were not really inventions.
My big think on it is: Was WW2 really the last one? Nuclear armageddon feels like a much stronger case for “ways to make earth hostile to human habitation” than climate change has been. Even if Tuvalu or the Maldives were underwater by now, climate-based disaster would seem less scary to someone living with four seasons and mountain views.
So— western industries got cheap labor in China and created a monster that threatens the west economically and militarily.
Incredibly stupid, weren’t they?
Yes.
Worse than that.
When they first began to experiment with capitalism the thinking in the CIA was that it would result in them becoming westernized, future allies like Japan and Germany. So they turned a blind eye to the corruption. One of the things China was fond of was going to tender for technology for their whole country. Billions on the table. But to bid you had to put your code in escrow with the Chinese government. I warned companies not to do it, that there would be no contract award to anyone, just Chinese companies popping up out of nowhere with dirt cheap versions of the product.
The example that I use it telecommunications. No contract was awarded to anyone. A short time later Huawei appeared with very Nortel like equipment. Shortly after that, Northern Telecomm went bankrupt (though to be fair, they shot themselves in the foot a few times too).
Should employ smarter people in the CIA, I suppose.
So who got stupid and greedy? Maybe dimwits who believed the CIA experts?
Tut, tut. The same nonsense has been promoted about Japan in the past – they just make inferior copies of fine US products by stealing the US IP!
You live in a fantasy world. Other countries might be moving on, while those in the US are basking in the past.
Well, the west should have been more careful. I don’t agree with your implication that Chinese people are even more stupid than the average American.
Even if the average Chinese is only as bright as the average American, there are about four times as many, so there should be four times as many brilliant minds, I guess.
I would probably agree that the Chinese can succeed with ideas that Americans can’t. Rather like the invention of the transistor at Bell labs (Bardeen, Brattain and Shockley). US entrepreneurs dismissed the silly thing as being of no use. An academic curiosity of no practical use.
The Japanese, however . . .
The US seems to be falling behind – even in the military field. Maybe it’s a grand US psy-ops ploy, to make opponents think that the US is furiously playing catchup?
It’s been speculated- seriously- that America has been back engineering ET technology since WWII. I had an extremely good view of a UFO back in ’84. Not sure what it was but it was large, weird and silent. If this is true, and America is doing it better than other nations, then that’s the ultimate Trump card, no pun intended. 🙂
Very nice David.
Let’s be clear here. We are not in the fix we are in because we simply weren’t paying attention. We are here because Democrats, environmentalists, globalists and any number of other do gooders have been pushing us here. This is where they want us, using less energy, weening us off of fossil fuel and shutting down nuclear. It wasn’t an over site it was planned. Their only problem now is that they got everything they were aiming for, we are well on our way to their idea of utopia. Problem is they didn’t know what the hell they were talking about. They have lied, cheated and stole us blind because we have allowed it. We need to stop pussyfooting around. They have screwed things up enough, they can’t hide all the wrongdoing they have been doing any longer.
I agree with almost everything you said except that we have been telling everybody we were going to end up in a bad place for decades. Wind and solar don’t work, you need to say that. The only reason we have them is because of incompetent dishonest numbskull government leaders.
Remove all wind and solar from the grid. Fire up all fossil fuel and nuclear generators. Build new fossil fuel and nuclear generators.
Since AI will need so much more power they can pay the lion’s of building new generators, power enough for us as well as them.
This is not complicated.
Ah, we were stabbed in the back
…
Well, here in NH, it’s official: New England’s last coal-fired plant (460 MW) is slated to stop operating by 2028, and perhaps earlier. It’s only being used as a Peaker Plant now anyway, so no big deal, right? But the good news is, they are replacing it with a 100 MW solar facility plus batteries there, as well as at another, no longer operating plant in Portsmouth. Because, saving the planet. The bad news is, it’s only 100 MW, and it’s costly unreliable solar, but never mind that. And the batteries might help, a little. And did I mention saving the planet? If we can all just use a bit less electricity, tighten our belts so to speak, maybe we’ll squeak by. Just use less, especially during peak usage hours and/or days when it is especially cold or hot – you know, days when you need it the most. We can do this! Together. It will be such fun.
“From 1920-2021, America’s energy consumption grew fourfold”
I’d have thought it would be much more than that- unless you mean per capita.
Is it likely or possible to develop far more energy efficient AI?
Yes, if one is willing to wait a few seconds for the answer rather than near instantaneous response time. The power consumption of a processor is based on switching frequency, i.e., the primary clock. Reduce the clock speed reduces the megaflops, gigaflops, teraflops. FLOPS = floating point operations per second.
Not sure about generations, but certainly decades. AI will dominate until the next great advancement step comes into sight.
“Each ChatGPT query consumes roughly 10 times the energy of a standard Google search.”
It is not the author of the article’s responsibility to say or know, but if anyone by coincidence does know, how much energy does a ChatGPT query consume relative to an old school metric like leaving a kitchen light on for an hour or running a load in the clothes dryer?
There will come a point [and we’re almost there] where the graft to be realized from AI will exceed the graft that can be stolen from green energy.
Then, even Al Gore will declare the climate is just fine and dandy.