From the Cliff Mass Weather Blog
Aesop’s Fable “The Boy Who Cried Wolf” talks about the danger of exaggerating a threat to the point that no one believes you.
The Department of Ecology and the Seattle Times would be well advised to read this ancient story, because they are misleading the people of our state with their claims of a “drought emergency.”
The truth is clear: such “emergency” claims are contradicted by the facts.
Crying wolf about a non-existent drought not only lessens public confidence in such warnings but wastes money and can lead to a lack of public response when the situation becomes truly serious.
Remember the definition of an emergency (Cambridge Dictionary):
A dangerous or serious situation, such as an accident, that happens suddenly or unexpectedly and needs immediate action
As described in this and my previous blog, the current precipitation situation is not dangerous, did not develop suddenly, and does not require immediate action.
The claims of a drought emergency, centered on Kittitas and Yakima counties (see map), are very weak for many reasons.
Consider the situation for the reservoirs serving this area. Water levels are rapidly rising and will soon exceed last year’s level. Currently, the Yakima region reservoirs are at 67% of normal capacity and most of the snowmelt is in the future. Thus, the storage levels will improve further. By a lot.
One reason we can be sure of this is the predicted stream flows (by the Portland River Forecast Center). The predicted river levels by late summer should be 87% to 105% of normal. Healthy river levels like this are good for irrigation and for filling reservoirs.
The snowpack is not in an “emergency” state, with relevant basin being 86% of normal (see below from USDA)
The situation this year will be far better (moister) than last year. But even with drier conditions than this year, agricultural productivity in Washington State was quite good in 2024 (see below), with the greatest weather problem for 2024 being the cold wave last spring (not drought).
Good news on the temperature front this year: no freezing cold wave predicted by the very skillful ECMWF ensemble of many forecasts through the end of the month. Once in May the threat is over.
I talked to a reporter from WA Ag Information Network today and he had talked to several growers. They are optimistic about the current season.
So should you.
In summary, the “drought emergency” talk is highly irresponsible and in contradiction to observed facts on the ground. It is used as a tool to scare people, often with unsupported attempts to connect the fictitious “drought” to climate change.
Finally, it is interesting to check Google Trends for how many searches have included “drought emergency…see below.
This term has become more trendy during recent years, with Washington State being the number one place in the nation for using it. The state with the most reliable and bountiful precipitation in the nation. That tells you something….
If only Aesop were alive today….
My wife and I were just commenting this morning how much snow is on Mt Rainier and the Olympics. It hard to imagine a drought when the Washington news called out bomb cyclones and atmospheric rivers virtually all Winter.
Those pesky floodroughts, amirite?
Yakima and Kittitas Counties are in a Rain Shadow zone thus rain and snowfall is normally low mostly between 7″ to 8″ in a year with Toppenish getting less than 6 inches for the year.
The Irrigation water is coming in from the mountains and the giant Columbia River and they were mostly free of drought situations.
The Media lies a lot that is a certainty.
A couple days ago I calculated the deviation from average rain fall in Seattle. From October 2024 (start of rainy season) to present, we were 16% below average. From January 2025 to present, we were also 16% below average. Last year, the rain shortage was higher, but we had near record cold temps in Feb, March, and April. May is the start of our dry weather.
Speaking of Bomb Cyclones. Front page story on the Seattle Times this morning: Washington state is suing Trump and FEMA because they refuse to give the state $32 million for Bomb Cyclone damage (mostly tree limbs falling on electric cables) , which Biden had already agreed to.
The shepard boy cried wolf when there was none. Seattle Times cries drought when there is none. Ends the same way both times.
Seattle Times has been way out over their skis on climate change for more than a decade. See the first half of essay ‘Shell games’ in ebook Blowing Smoke for a vivid illustrated example from a decade and a half ago. Hyped scientific misconduct.
The state of Wokeachusetts claims we’re having a drought too. Which is nuts. The streams are running nice- and every lake and pond is filled. The ground is saturated with water. WTF are they talking about? The image I just got off the state’s web site. Sure, in many years we’ve had even MORE precipitation- but who says we need THAT much? We’ve had plenty. Decades ago the Quabbin Reservoir that sends water from the center of the state to Boston never quite filled. It’s filled now.
I disagree. Immediate action is necessary, such as armwaving, pointing, carrying signs, screaming at cars to honk their horns, and of course along with raising taxes.
You left out lawsuits.
According to historic records, the incidence of droughts is well within normal parameters. In fact lower than 50 years ago. Dr John Robson, Nexus.
Yes, weather history debunks Climate Alarmists’ claims.
The Seattle Times apparently is living in an alternate universe. Bizarro World, where black is white, and up is down, and atmospheric rivers is drought.
Dude, don’t point out the full reservoirs, the Democrats running your state will open the gates and drain them. 😉
In real life the NWS has been struggling to find the right balance between issuing too many weather event warning and too few.
Too many warnings that don’t materialize, people begin to ignore them.
They want people to take actual warnings seriously for the people’s own welfare.
The alarmist … they don’t care that they’ve been so wrong for so long.
They just want to keep people scared so they pay for and accept the “solutions” they offer.