Coal Will Power Kazakhstan into a Nuclear Future

By Vijay Jayaraj                                                                                                                                               

Kazakhstan is a land of breathtaking contrasts that present unparalleled natural beauty in the rugged peaks of the Tian Shan mountains and vast, windswept grasslands of the Great Steppe. Its people are both deeply rooted in tradition and forward-looking, embodying a blend of resilience and innovation.

In some regions, unforgiving Kazakhstan winters push temperatures below minus 40°C. Such conditions make coal a lifeline that keeps homes warm and industries running.

Kazakhstan’s reliance on coal is deeply entrenched, and for good reason. The country possesses some of the largest coal reserves in the world – an estimated 25 billion tons. Coal-fired power plants account for nearly 70% of Kazakhstan’s electricity generation, a figure that underscores its pivotal role in the nation’s energy matrix.

Intermittent energy sources like wind and solar – promoted as a response to a fabricated climate crisis – simply cannot meet the demand for electricity. Winter is particularly challenging as solar panels are idled under thick snow and wind turbines falter in icy conditions. Coal, on the other hand, is a steady, reliable source of heat and power that ensures Kazakh families endure the cold and critical infrastructure remains operational.

Kazakh’s Nuclear Future

As the world’s largest producer of uranium and a participant in nuclear research, Kazakhstan has both the raw materials and the expertise to develop a robust nuclear power sector. Nuclear power offers a viable alternative to Kazakhstan’s energy needs. In a 2024 referendum, 73% of Kazakh people voted in favor of nuclear energy.

Unlike wind and solar, nuclear performs in any kind of weather. Modern nuclear reactors are designed with enhanced safety features and smaller footprints and would readily integrate into Kazakhstan’s energy grid.

The country “is committed to constructing effective and sustainable energy sources to meet electricity needs for households and the rapidly developing industrial sector,” says Erlan Batyrbekov, director general of Kazakhstan’s National Nuclear Center – one of Central Asia’s largest research organizations.

The country’s interest in nuclear energy has attracted international attention. China has already set up a uranium processing plant. Kazakhstan’s choices for vendors of nuclear reactors include those from France, South Korea, Russia and China. Both Russia and China have shown renewed interest on construction of nuclear power plants in the country.

But Kazakhstan is the U.S.’s lead partner in nuclear cooperation in Central Asia. Gavin Helf, an expert on Central Asia, says,  “It is in the interest of the West and the United States to help Kazakhstan shape its nuclear options to prevent a Russian or Chinese monopolization of Kazakhstan’s uranium resources.”

Regardless of where Kazakhstan’s allegiance lies, the country must construct power plants to utilize its reserves of uranium. However, building nuclear plants requires significant up-front investment of capital and time.

Until there is a large-scale deployment of the technology, the country cannot afford to replace coal’s share in power generation with unreliable wind and solar despite political pressures to the contrary.

In addition to coal, oil and natural gas have helped to transform the Kazakhstan economy. Kazakhstan is a leading exporter of crude oil, with major fields like Tengiz, Kashagan, and Karachaganak driving production.

Oil exports account for nearly 30% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and 75% of export commodities, underscoring their importance as an economic engine. Since gaining independence in 1991, the country’s GDP has grown tenfold to over $260 billion, with hydrocarbon production playing a pivotal role. Oil exports from Kazakhstan are set to increase as Turkey has emerged as a safe and convenient new route, bypassing a complex Russian route.

This fossil fuel wealth has enabled Kazakhstan to invest in infrastructure, education, and healthcare, significantly improving living standards over the past three decades. It is for this reason that Kazakhstan must continue to invest in the development of fossil fuels and to rely on them for the lion’s share of primary energy consumption.

Kazakhstan’s energy future resides in fossil fuels, especially coal, at least until nuclear power is more fully developed and probably beyond.

This commentary was first published at RealClear Markets on December 31, 2024.

Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Associate at the CO₂ Coalition, Arlington, Virginia. He holds an M.S. in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia and a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University, both in the U.K., and a bachelor’s in engineering from Anna University, India.