The Week That Was: 2024 10-26 (October 26, 2024)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “This freedom to doubt is an important matter in the sciences and, I believe, in other fields. It was born of a struggle. It was a struggle to be permitted to doubt, to be unsure. And I do not want us to forget the importance of the struggle and, by default, to let the thing fall away. I feel a responsibility as a scientist who knows the great value of a satisfactory philosophy of ignorance, and the progress made possible by such a philosophy, progress which is the fruit of freedom of thought. I feel a responsibility to proclaim the value of this freedom and to teach that doubt is not to be feared, but that it is to be welcomed as the possibility of a new potential for human beings. If you know that you are not sure, you have a chance to improve the situation. I want to demand this freedom for future generations. — Richard Feynman, “The Uncertainty of Science” in The Meaning of It All.
Number of the Week: 25
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: This Week discusses its failure last week to emphasize that convection is the primary mechanism for moving heat from the surface to the upper atmosphere and then to space. Also discussed are problems with different scales of models and natural variation. D-O events are discussed as well as claimed climate “tipping points.” Briefly discussed are the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, No discernable change in surface temperature trends. The discussed energy issues include small nuclear reactors, geothermal, and Exxon knew.
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Clarification: Last week, in its efforts to clarify the work of William van Wijngaarden and William Happer, TWTW failed to emphasize that radiation transfer is not the most important mechanism for moving energy, heat, from Earth’s surface to the upper atmosphere and to space — convection is more important. Included in convection is the evaporation of water which absorbs heat and transfers it to the atmosphere where it is released upon condensation. In “The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere” van Wijngaarden and Happer present in a simple model with convection dominating in the troposphere and radiative transfer dominating above the troposphere in the stratosphere after water vapor has been largely condensed out by the cooling. The dividing area between the troposphere and the stratosphere is the tropopause. The altitude of the tropopause varies with latitude. It is higher over the tropics than over the polar regions.
Further, van Wijngaarden and Happer base their calculations on the HITRAN molecular spectroscopic database, which is updated frequently for use to predict and simulate the transmission and emission of light in the atmosphere. The latest version is HITRAN2020 which was updated in October 2024 with an expansion of the acetylene (C2H2) line list. It is not an “out-of-date” database.
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer. and https://hitran.org/.
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Issues of Scale: The above discussion prompts another issue: the problems of Scale. Weather and climate models are based on Classical Physics on the scale of meters and kilometers (feet and miles). Atomic, Molecular, and Optical Physics which van Wijngaarden and Happer use to describe the role of greenhouse gases in warming Earth is built on the scale of Modern Physics which includes Quantum Mechanics. The scale of Quantum Mechanics goes down to nanometers and less. It takes 1,000,000,000 nanometers to make one meter.
Can weather and global climate models correctly capture events that occur on the scale less than 1/1,000,000,000? The global climate models have issues describing events that occur on the scale of hundreds of kilometers. Thus, there is no reason to assume they can describe events on such a small scale of tiny fractions of a nanometer. Comparing satellite, balloon, and reanalysis observations with CHIP6 models, Ross McKitrick and John Christy show that they do not, and climate models have a pervasive warming bias. The Abstract states:
The tendency of climate models to overstate warming in the tropical troposphere has long been noted. Here we examine individual runs from 38 newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6) models and show that the warm bias is now observable globally as well. We compare CMIP6 runs against observational series drawn from satellites, weather balloons, and reanalysis products. We focus on the 1979–2014 interval, the maximum span for which all observational products are available and for which models were run using historically observed forcings. For lower-troposphere and mid-troposphere layers both globally and in the tropics, all 38 models overpredict warming in every target observational analog, in most cases significantly so, and the average differences between models and observations are statistically significant. We present evidence that consistency with observed warming would require lower model Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) values.
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Natural Variation There is no issue that adding carbon dioxide (CO2) to Earth’s atmosphere will cause some warming; the issue is how much. One of the perplexing issues in understanding the changing greenhouse effect on Earth’s climate is separating natural variation from the influence of greenhouse gases. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its collaborators ignore this issue and assume that any increase in global temperatures is from increasing CO2. However, there is no agreed upon system of measurements for Earth’s surface temperature. Further, few locations on Earth’s surface have thermometers spaced closely enough to provide a reasonable temperature record.
The conterminous 48 states of United States make the largest land area with reasonable saturation of instruments since 1880. However, state records show the hottest decade was the 1930s and in recent years the national record has been “adjusted” (manipulated) to the point that no one understands to what extent. As Roy Spencer shows, the US dataset is contaminated by the Urban Heat Island Effect (UHI) which the keeper of the records, NOAA, has allowed to persist, even after publicly acknowledging this shortcoming. It is an example of government failure to maintain the trust of the public. Further, Tony Heller gives one of many examples on how “homogenization” is used to manipulate datasets, this one in Argentina. See links under Measurement Issues – Surface and Lowering Standards.
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Dansgaard–Oeschger Events: One of the natural variation occurrences that is omitted by the IPCC is Dansgaard–Oeschger (D-O) Events. Dansgaard–Oeschger events were discovered by Denmark’s Willi Dansgaard and Switzerland’s Hans Oeschger in 1983. They were among the first to see two ice cores, each nearly a mile long. The ice cores were obtained by drilling deep holes in the Greenland Ice Sheet, bringing up 250,000 years of Greenland’s climate history. One core was from the north end of Greenland, the other from the south end.
The two researchers had pioneered the methods to sink a hollow core drill, like those used in oil fields, to remove ice cores. They used the ratio of oxygen 18-isotopes to oxygen-16 isotopes to estimate the temperature when the snow fell. In addition to dramatic long-term large swings in temperature, Dansgaard and Oeschger found short-term minor swings in temperature. They estimated the short-term swings to be about 2,550 years. With subsequent research the length of the short-term swing (or oscillation) is estimated to be about 1,500 years plus or minus 500 years.
The D-O events show a sharp increase in temperatures followed by a slow cooling. Dansgaard and Oeschger estimated that the shifts in temperatures are moderate, rising and falling about 4°C (7°F) in northern Greenland but only about 0.5°C (1°F) for the average of the Northern Hemisphere. These moderate swings in temperatures have been found in many places throughout the world, including Europe, China, South America and Antarctica.
Importantly, the isotopes of carbon-14 and beryllium-10 vary inversely with the strength of solar activity. In the Greenland ice cores, the isotopes of both elements showed historic highs during the Maunder Solar Minimum (1645 to 1715). The Maunder Minium is the coldest period of what is called the Little Ice Age. [The IPCC used the Mann, et al., hockey-stick to remove the Little Ice Age consideration in climate change. However, as shown in the persistent work of Steve McIntyre and others, the IPCC hockey-stick was formed by removing over 70% of the data from the boral forests in the Northern Hemisphere which contradicted the hockey-stick. Such omissions demonstrate the non-scientific, highly politicized nature of the IPCC and its collaborators.]
The above description of the Dansgaard and Oeschger research is a summary of what is in the book Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years by S. Fred Singer and Dannis T. Avery, both deceased. TWTW adds that although ice cores can be used to estimate temperatures to the scale of year to year, one cannot compare temperatures in ice cores with modern temperatures because it takes too long for snow to compress into ice. Estimates are over hundred-year spans. Thus, one cannot definitively state that the current warming is a D-O event based on ice cores. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Tipping Points: An article in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) brings up the notion of climate “tipping points” in the context of D-O events “The Greenland spatial fingerprint of Dansgaard–Oeschger events in observations and models.” The statement of significance and the abstract state:
“Significance
Reconstructions of Earth’s past climate show evidence for instability and abrupt change, which are of great scientific and societal importance. The Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) oscillation of the last Ice Age, which is most clearly observed in Greenland ice cores, is the prime example of such instability. Here, we provide new ice-core observations from southern and coastal eastern Greenland and combine these with existing data to create a Greenland-wide, multiparameter assessment of the climate impact of DO events. State-of-the-art climate model simulations of these events provide good agreement with the data. To explain the observations, models require winter sea ice in the North Atlantic to extend as far south as 45ºN during the cold phases of the oscillation.
Abstract
Pleistocene Ice Ages display abrupt Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) climate oscillations that provide prime examples of Earth System tipping points—abrupt transition that may result in irreversible change. Greenland ice cores provide key records of DO climate variability, but gas-calibrated estimates of the temperature change magnitudes have been limited to central and northwest Greenland. Here, we present ice-core δ15N-N2 records from south (Dye 3) and coastal east Greenland (Renland) to calibrate the local water isotope thermometer and provide a Greenland-wide spatial characterization of DO event magnitude. We combine these data with existing records of δ18O, deuterium excess, and accumulation rates to create a multiproxy “fingerprint” of the DO impact on Greenland. Isotope-enabled climate models have skill in simulating the observational multiproxy DO event impact, and we use a series of idealized simulations with such models to identify regions of the North Atlantic that are critical in explaining DO variability. Our experiments imply that wintertime sea ice variation in the subpolar gyre, rather than the commonly invoked Nordic Seas, is both a sufficient and a necessary condition to explain the observed DO impacts in Greenland, whatever the distal cause. Moisture-tagging experiments support the idea that Greenland DO isotope signals may be explained almost entirely via changes in the vapor source distribution and that site temperature is not a main control on δ18O during DO transitions, contrary to the traditional interpretation. Our results provide a comprehensive, multiproxy, data-model synthesis of abrupt DO climate variability in Greenland.”
The opening sentence of the abstract reveals the purpose of the paper: “Pleistocene Ice Ages display abrupt Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) climate oscillations that provide prime examples of Earth System tipping points—abrupt transition that may result in irreversible change.” Earth System tipping points creating irreversible change are an absurd concept. Earth’s history has been one of warming and cooling and 67 million years of sea sediment data show stable temperature periods with widely varying CO2 concentrations, from half of what they are today to twice of what they are today.
The second sentence of the abstract: “Greenland ice cores provide key records of DO climate variability, but gas-calibrated estimates of the temperature change magnitudes have been limited to central and northwest Greenland” is misleading. D-O events have been observed around the world using many different methods. There is no reason to accept “but gas-calibrated estimates of the temperature change magnitudes have been limited to central and northwest Greenland. Here, we present ice-core δ15N-N2 records from south (Dye 3) and coastal east Greenland (Renland) to calibrate the local water isotope thermometer and provide a Greenland-wide spatial characterization of DO event magnitude” as definitive.
Further, the statement of significance “State-of-the-art climate model simulations of these events provide good agreement with the data. To explain the observations, models require winter sea ice in the North Atlantic to extend as far south as 45ºN during the cold phases of the oscillation” implies that the purpose of this exercise is to discredit D-O events as a global occurrence concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere. 45ºN is the latitude of northern US and southern Europe. To TWTW it is up to the models to explain observations not for observations to explain models. See link under Defending the Orthodoxy.
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Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC): The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a system of ocean currents that circulates water within the Atlantic Ocean, bringing warm water north and cold water south. This includes the Gulf Stream, which was observed by Benjamin Franklin who made measurements of it during his Atlantic crossings. Northern Europe depends on the flow of the Gulf Stream for its warmth and for its growing season. A favorite theme among climate alarmists is the shutting down of the AMOC, or the Gulf Stream.
Now in an open letter a group of “leading climate scientists” have claimed the AMOC could collapse soon, “impacting the entire world for centuries to come.” Is the logic that human emissions of CO2 causing global warming will lead to the collapse of the AMOC leading to the onset of glaciation in northern Europe, another Little Ice Age? Paul Homewood addresses these fears. See Links under Changing Seas.
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No Discernable Change in Trend: David Whitehouse of Net Zero Watch discusses a paper in Nature, Communications Earth & Environment that there is no discernable change in the warming of Earth based on four global mean surface temperature records over 1850–2023. The researchers found no change in the warming rate beyond the 1970s. The findings include no discernible pause in the warming as well. See links under Seeking a Common Ground.
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Small Nuclear Reactors: According to the article Nuclear-Powered Ships by the World Nuclear Association:
- “Nuclear power is particularly suitable for vessels which need to be at sea for long periods without refueling, or for powerful submarine propulsion.
- Over 160 ships are powered by more than 200 small nuclear reactors.
- Most are submarines, but they range from icebreakers to aircraft carriers.”
“Work on nuclear marine propulsion started in the 1940s, and the first test reactor started up in the USA in 1953. The first nuclear-powered submarine, USS Nautilus, went to sea in 1955.
This marked the transition of submarines from slow underwater vessels to warships capable of sustaining 20-25 knots submerged for long periods, independent of needing air for diesel engines to charge batteries.
Nautilus led to the parallel development of further (Skate-class) submarines, powered by single pressurized water reactors, and an aircraft carrier, USS Enterprise, powered by eight Westinghouse reactor units in 1960. A cruiser, USS Long Beach, followed in 1961 and was powered by two of these early units. Remarkably, the Enterprise remained in service to the end of 2012.
By 1962 the US Navy had 26 nuclear submarines operational and 30 under construction. Nuclear power had revolutionized the Navy.
The technology was shared with Britain, while French, Russian and Chinese developments proceeded separately.
After the Skate-class vessels, reactor development proceeded and, in the USA, a single series of standardized designs was built by both Westinghouse and GE, one reactor powering each vessel. Rolls-Royce built Westinghouse-derived units for the UK Royal Navy submarines and then developed the design further to the PWR2.”
“The safety record of the US nuclear navy is excellent, this being attributed to a high level of standardization in naval power plants and their maintenance, and the high quality of the Navy’s training program. However, early Soviet endeavors resulted in a number of serious accidents…”
“The USA has the main navy with nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, while both it and Russia have had nuclear-powered cruisers (USA: 9; Russia: 4). The USA had built 219 nuclear-powered vessels to mid-2010. All US aircraft carriers and submarines are nuclear-powered. (The UK’s new large aircraft carriers are powered by two 36 MW gas turbines driving electric motors.)
The US Navy has accumulated over 6200 reactor-years of accident-free experience involving 526 nuclear reactor cores over the course of 240 million kilometers, without a single radiological incident, over a period of more than 50 years. It operated 81 nuclear-powered ships (11 aircraft carriers, 70 submarines – 18 SSBN/SSGN, 52 SSN) with 92 reactors in 2017. There were 10 Nimitz-class carriers in service (CVN 68-77), each designed for 50-year service life with one mid-life refueling and complex overhaul of their two A4W Westinghouse reactors. The Gerald Ford class (CVN 78 on) has a similar hull and some 800 fewer crew and two more powerful Bechtel A1B reactors driving four shafts as well as the electromagnetic aircraft launch system. It has an expected service life of 90 years. The Ohio-class SSBNs have a service life of 42 years.”
Led by Admiral Rickover, the US built a reliable, safe nuclear Navy. There is no question that small nuclear reactors work. The issue is how long will it take to get a small nuclear reactor approved by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for standardized commercial use? See links under Nuclear Energy and Fears.
https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/non-power-nuclear-applications/transport/nuclear-powered-ships
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Expanding Geothermal? According to Power Mag,
“The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has given the go-ahead for a major geothermal energy project in Utah. The agency announced final approval for Fervo Energy’s Cape Geothermal Power Project in Beaver County, which the BLM said would use advanced geothermal technology to produce up to 2 GW of electricity.”
According to a report by NASA’s Earth Observatory The Geysers of California:
“Hot springs and fumaroles dot this misnamed geothermal field that hosts the world’s largest complex of power plants capturing subterranean heat.”
“The steam-driven turbines in this area can generate 725 megawatts of electricity, enough to power a city the size of San Francisco. The Geysers typically supplies the power needs of Sonoma, Lake, and Mendocino counties, as well as a portion of Marin and Napa counties. As of 2018, turbines in the Geysers area produced 50 percent of California’s geothermal power.”
“A small steam-engine generator was first used to produce electricity here in the 1920s, and the first modern geothermal well was drilled in 1955. Over several decades, further drilling and development by various operators brought The Geysers to its peak-production in 1987, when 21 power plants had a capacity of more than 2,000 megawatts. Then power production began to decline as the steam reservoir began to tap out.
In the mid-1990s, to sustain energy production and extend the life of the field, plant operators turned to a practice called enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Water is injected at high pressure to reopen the natural fractures in the rock and allow hot water or steam to flow into wells. Today, two pipelines deliver treated wastewater from Lake County and the city of Santa Rosa to recharge the reservoir.”
From this, one realizes one of the issues of geothermal power is running out of useful heat. After all, removing heat from geothermal hot spots cools them down, and the replacement heat must often come through hundreds of meters of rock. As well (The Geysers in California is an example), a site can run out of water to make steam, and must therefore be replenished. Interestingly, a 2017 report by The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Table 1 gives Net installed geothermal power capacity by country in 2016.
The US has the greatest installed geothermal power capacity in the world with 2,511 MW; Philippines is second with 1,916 MW. Iceland has 665 MW. Geothermal power is not a new resource, but it is a geographically limited resource. It is primarily available in geothermally active zones such as those in California and Yellowstone National Park in the US. See links under: Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy – Other
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Exxon Knew? According to a report in The Hill, “Researchers say Arkansas may have 19M tons of lithium critical for battery power. “According to an ExxonMobil press release:
“Our footprint in Arkansas
Southwest Arkansas has a rich history as an oil and natural gas producer, and deep underground is another valuable resource: saltwater brine, rich in lithium.
In early 2023, ExxonMobil acquired the rights to approximately 120,000 gross acres of the Smackover formation in southern Arkansas – considered one of the most prolific lithium resources of its type in North America. ExxonMobil can safely extract this lithium using many of the skills we’ve honed over decades – including geoscience, reservoir engineering, and chemical processing.”
See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy – Storage and https://lowcarbon.exxonmobil.com/about-us/community/our-footprint-in-arkansas#:~:text=In%20early%202023%2C%20ExxonMobil%20acquired,its%20type%20in%20North%20America.
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Number of the Week: 25. According to NOAA’s publication, “Heinrich and Dansgaard–
Oeschger Events”:
“Climate during the last glacial period was far from stable. Heinrich and Dansgaard-Oeschger events occurred repeatedly throughout most of this time.
Scientists Willi Dansgaard and Hans Oeschger first reported the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events in Greenland ice cores. Each of the 25 observed D-O events consisted of an abrupt warming to near interglacial conditions that occurred in a matter of decades and was followed by a gradual cooling.
Related to some of the coldest intervals between D-O events were six distinctive events, named after paleoclimatologist Hartmut Heinrich, that are recorded in North Atlantic marine sediments as layers with a large amount of coarse-grained sediments derived from land. These layers, which are continuous across large areas of the North Atlantic, are evidence for both an increase in icebergs discharged from the Laurentide ice sheet in North America and a southward extension of cold, polar waters (Bond et al. 1992). Icebergs carry sand-sized grains eroded by ice sheets.”
Contrary to what the UN IPCC and its collaborators will have us believe, climate was not stable before human CO2 emissions and there is no reason to believe stopping CO2 emissions will stabilize it. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-fossil-fuels/
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming/
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, December 22, 2020
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Pervasive Warming Bias in CMIP6 Tropospheric Layers
By Ross McKitrick and John Christy, Earth and Space Science, July 15, 2020
Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years
By S. Fred Singer and Dannis T. Avery, Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2008
Heinrich and Dansgaard–Oeschger Events
By Staff, NOAA, Accessed Oct 23, 2024
Mysterious record methane surge since 2020 was not fossil fuels but “90% due to microbes”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 23, 2024
Link to paper: Rapid shift in methane carbon isotopes suggests microbial emissions drove record high atmospheric methane growth in 2020–2022
By Sylvia Englund Michel, et al., PNAS, Oct 21, 2024
Wouldn’t you know it — 150 nations signed the Global Methane Pledge without even bothering to check if the methane was man-made.
NC Floods, CA Drought, and The Role of Randomness
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 22, 2024
Extreme precipitation events are (of course) the most rare, and as such, they can exhibit somewhat weird behavior. This is why hydrologists disagree over the usefulness of the term “100-year flood”, since most weather records don’t even extend beyond 100 years. One would probably need 1,000 years of rainfall records to get a good estimate of what constitutes a 100-year event.
Defending the Orthodoxy
The Greenland spatial fingerprint of Dansgaard–Oeschger events in observations and models
By Christo Buizert, et al., PNAS, Oct 21, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Without more action, it will be ‘impossible’ to meet Paris climate goal: UN
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct. 24, 2024
Link to report: Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please!
By Staff, UN Environment Programme, Oct 24, 2024
2024 United Nations Biodiversity Conference – SBI 5 / CBD COP 16 / CP-MOP 11 / NP-MOP 5
By Staff, Earth Negotiations Bulletin, Oct 21, 2024 [H/t Carbon Brief]
Following Sunday’s ceremony, opening and regional statements marked the beginning of the official proceedings of the UN Biodiversity Conference, including the 16th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP 16) to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), the 11th Meeting of the Parties to the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety (CP MOP 11), and the fifth Meeting of the Parties to the Nagoya Protocol (NP MOP 5) on access and benefit-sharing (ABS).
[SEPP Comment: Following the procedures of the UN IPCC of endless conferences with endless bureaucracies issuing endless reports with diminishing meaning. The ridiculous Global Methane Pledge is the result of these procedures.]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Ethical framework aims to counter risks of geoengineering research
Pressure for climate intervention may gain momentum as world heats up
Press Release, AGU, Via Science Daily, Oct 23, 2024
Link to report: Ethical Framework Principles for Climate Intervention Research
As interest in climate intervention, or geoengineering, rapidly grows in the urgency to address climate change, this Ethical Framework provides guidance for researchers, funders, and policymakers.
By Staff, AGU Advancing Earth and Space Sciences, 2024
Climate intervention research requires guidance at local, regional, and global levels. AGU, in conjunction with a global panel of experts, has facilitated the development of Ethical Framework Principles for Climate Intervention Research, which provides guidance for ensuring: 1. Responsible research, 2. Climate justice, 3. Inclusive public participation, 4. Transparency, and 5. Informed governance.
Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air …please!
By Steering committee Ruta Bubniene (Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC]), et al. UN Environment Programe [One parent of the IPCC], Oct 24, 2024 [H/t Carbon Brief]
It’s Climate Crunch Time. It’s Time to Level Up. #EmissionsGap
[SEPP Comment: More UN Hot Air.]
Wildfires are becoming faster and more furious in the US West
By Sharon Udasink, The Hill, Oct 24, 2024
Link to paper: The fastest growing and most destructive fires in the US (2001 to 2020)
By Jennifer K. Balch, et al., AAAS Science, Oct 24, 2024
[SEPP Comment: A human cause: the failure to construct fire breaks and spreading invasive species?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Chris Martz Asks Climate Fundamentalists Ten Fundamental Questions
By Chirs Martz, WUWT, Oct 24, 2024
The Irrationality of Western Energy Policies
By Tilak Doshi, WUWT, Oct 21, 2024
The Western World is in a hypnotic trance from 30 years of relentless propaganda pushing climate alarmism.
New Study: The Southeastern United States Has Been Cooling For The Last 120 Years
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 24, 2024
Link to study: Reconstructed Late Summer Maximum Temperatures for the Southeastern United States From Tree‐Ring Blue Intensity
By Karen E. King, et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 2024
From abstract: Here, we detail the application of blue intensity (BI) methods on a network of tree‐ring collections and examine their utility for producing robust paleotemperature estimates.
From Key points: Compared to the last 260 years, regional 20th‐century maximum late summer temperatures are not characterized by unprecedented positive trend
[SEPP Comment: As Steve McIntyre showed, tree ring data have plenty of problems. Do the blue intensity (BI) methods overcome these problems if all the results are reported, none held back?]
New Study Finds There Has Been No Warming In Central China Since 1770
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 22, 2024
Link to paper: Tree Ring Blue Intensity-Based August Temperature Reconstruction for Subtropical Central China
By Yonghong Zheng and Rob Wilson, Forests, Aug 14, 2024
[SEPP Comment: To repeat the comment above: As Steve McIntyre showed, tree ring data have plenty of problems. Do the blue intensity (BI) methods overcome these problems if all the results are reported, none held back?]
And set like cement
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 23, 2024
There’s an old jibe about how some people’s minds are like concrete: all mixed up and permanently set. Which we thought of when we read in Heatmap about the supposed dilemma of Microsoft, committed to “sustainability” including “low-carbon building materials” but cranking out data centers at a massive pace.
Now we have to add: Do they think that before “climate change” the weather did not change?
Miriam Cates slams Net Zero targets as map shows Britain’s carbon emissions farce
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 19, 2024
There is no reason why we should not import products. But it is clearly pointless to destroy the economy and impoverish its citizens in the pursuit of Net Zero, when we are simply importing emissions instead.
Naturally Hot, Exaggeration Not
By Kennedy Maize, Master Resource, Oct 21, 2024
Feel-Good Environmental Regulations Won’t Save the Planet, But They Do Harm Consumers
By Nate Scherer, Real Clear Energy, Oct 23, 2024
No, The Carbon Sinks Aren’t Sinking
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Oct 22, 2024
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Asparagus officinalis L. under extra CO2
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 23, 2024
From the CO2Science archive:
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Kenyan Government: “Climate policies must not write off livestock”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 23, 2024
Plans to power Los Alamos lab supercomputers spark pushback from Pueblo communities, environmentalists
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Oct 19, 2024
The plans, proposed by the National Nuclear Security Administration and the Department of Energy, involve the construction of a 14-mile, 115-kilovolt line that would boost power reliability and redundancy for supercomputing and other projects at the Los Alamos National Labs (LANL).
[SEPP Comment: According to DOE, the source of power will be Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM). Solar would require over 2,000 acres, wind is considered unsuitable, and geothermal would need hundreds of acres and water right.]
Seeking a Common Ground
No global warming surge or hiatus, say researchers
By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Oct 22, 2024
Link to study: A recent surge in global warming is not detectable yet
By Claudie Beaulieu, et al, Nature, Communications Earth & Environment, Oct 14, 2024
Short Summary of Observations Until September 2024
By Ole Humlum, Climate4you, Accessed October 25, 2024
Science, Policy, and Evidence
The Case Against Net Zero – A Seventh Update: Unachievable Disastrous Pointless
By Robin Guenier, His Blog, Oct 14, 2024 [H//t Paul Homewood]
In October 2008, Parliament passed the Climate Change Act requiring the UK Government to ensure that by 2050 ‘the net UK carbon account’ was reduced to a level at least 80% lower than that of 1990; ‘carbon account’ refers to CO2 and ‘other targeted greenhouse gas emissions.’ Only five MPs voted against it.
Renewable Lobbyist Promoted Renewable Energy!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 25, 2024
Emma Pinchbeck is now head of the Climate Change Committee.
Six years ago, when she was Executive Director of Renewable UK, she proclaimed that CfDs would “secure low-cost energy for consumers”:
Measurement Issues — Surface
Systematic Error in Global Temperatures due to Weather Station Ageing
By Moritz Büsing, Science of Climate Change, Accessed Oct 25, 2024 [H/t Climate Change Weekly #523]
Poisoning By Homogenization
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 24, 2024
NASA and NOAA have very little long term temperature data from South America. Rural stations show little warming, but after homogenizing in UHI [Urban Heat Island] contaminated data from Buenos Aires, a warming trend appears.
Changing Weather
Video Footage From Milton Shows Surprisingly Little Damage At Landfall
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 20, 2024
Floods and droughts in the Amazon 1790-2016
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 23, 2024
Link to paper: Drought and Flood Extremes on the Amazon River and in Northeast Brazil, 1790–1900
By Daniela Granato-Souza and David W. Stahle, AMS, Journal of Climate, Sep 21, 2023
From the abstract: The “Forgotten Drought” of 1865 was the lowest wet-season rainfall total reconstructed with tree-rings in the eastern Amazon from 1790 to 2016 and appears to have been one of the lowest stream levels observed on the Amazon River during the historical era according to first-hand descriptions by Louis Agassiz, his Brazilian colleague João Martins da Silva Coutinho, and others. Heavy rains and flooding are described during most of the tree-ring-reconstructed wet extremes, including the complete inundation of “First Street” in Santarem, Brazil, in 1859 and the overtopping of the Bittencourt Bridge in Manaus, Brazil, in 1892. These extremes in the tree-ring estimates and historical observations indicate that recent high and low flow anomalies on the Amazon River may not have exceeded the natural variability of precipitation and streamflow during the nineteenth century.
Siberia Mid-October Snow Extent Greater In 2024 Than In Past Years. Could Impact Europe’s Winter
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 19, 2024
Changing Climate
Is Paleoclimate Cyclic? It’s a Mystery to Me
By Kirby Schlaht, WUWT, Oct 23, 2024
In about 120 million years we will finally cross the Sagittarius spiral arm. We will exit this Ice House with its periodic glacial ages and enter the next Hot House inter-arm space on our way into the next spiral arm region – the Perseus arm. Round and round we go.
Changing Seas
Key Atlantic current could collapse soon, ‘impacting the entire world for centuries to come,’ leading climate scientists warn
Leading climate scientists ring alarm bell on key Atlantic Ocean current collapse in open letter
By Sascha Pare, Live Science, Oct 22, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to: Open Letter by Climate Scientists to the Nordic Council of Ministers
By Mann, et al., Reykjavik, October 2024
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately below.]
Gulf Stream Collapsing Again!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 24, 2024
Yes, it’s that old bogeyman again!
The mystery of a thousand dead whales and dolphins
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 24, 2024
For some reason more than a thousand whales, dolphins and porpoises died around the UK’s coastline every year for the last eight years. This is roughly twice as many as in the 25 years before that. What could it be?
[SEPP Comment: The construction of over 2500 offshore wind turbines?]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
The bad news polar bears of Churchill
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 23, 2024
Another disaster for which there’s no actual evidence. These “signature animals” are not dwindling and they don’t try to provide any proof that they are or even might be. But on climate you can just say anything, and as long as it’s all bad all the time you don’t need to worry about having evidence to back it up.
[SEPP Comment: Interestingly, the late Tim Ball showed that records kept by the Hudson Bay Company showed that the region where the Boreal forest meets the tundra advanced northward beyond the York Factory station over hundreds of years. York Factor was about 100 miles south of Churchill, Manitoba.]
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Food Accounts For A Quarter of the World’s Emissions
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 21, 2024
The most worrying thing about this is that they are even wanting to quantify emissions from farming.
If there is anything that should be excluded from the Net Zero madness, it is agriculture. Nothing can be more important to the world than food, no matter how much GHGs are emitted.
Lowering Standards
Urban Heat Island Effects Have Not Yet Been Removed from Official GHCN Warming Trends
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 25, 2024
Biodiversity loss: a health crisis
Editorial, The Lancet, Oct 26, 2024
Link to: Living Planet Report 2024 – A System in Peril.
By Staff, WWF, 2024
Opening of Lancet editorial: The Earth is approaching a critical threshold of irreversible biodiversity loss. World leaders, environmental activists, and prominent researchers are gathered in Colombia for the 16th meeting of the Conference of Parties (COP16) to the Convention on Biological Diversity.
[SEPP Comment: Lancet uses the WWF report to justify its claims. For WWF, it is no longer just polar bears, which are doing well with regulation of hunting. Now it is the entire ecological system. Pandas have replaced polar bears as the WWF pet animal. Neither Lancet nor WWF recognize that Earth is flourishing thanks to CO2 enrichment, and a warmer Earth supports greater biodiversity.]
Climate crisis, cities, and health
By Prof Mark J Nieuwenhuijsen, The Lancet, Oct 17, 2024
Opening sentence: More than ever, the climate crisis is becoming a health crisis.
National Science Foundation gives $2 million to Pratt Institute to promote ‘climate literacy’ and ‘climate justice’
A federal government agency has awarded several millions of dollars to a private university in Brooklyn in order to advance ‘climate literacy’ and ‘climate justice.’
On Oct. 2, the Pratt Institute announced in a press release that it was receiving $2 million from the National Science Foundation.
By Staff, Campus Reform, Oct 22, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
[SEPP Comment: The Pratt Institute is principally an arts school.]
Tropical Depression Nadine
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 20, 2024
NOAA is naming tropical depressions now, with a central pressure above 1000 mb.
Just like that: World Bank bureaucrats lost track of $24 to $41 billion “fighting climate change”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 25, 2024
Link to: Climate Financed Unchecked: How much does the World Bank know about the climate actions it claims?
By Christian Donaldson, et al., Oxfam International, October 2024
‘Gaps And Inconsistencies’: Up To $41 Billion In World Bank Climate Handouts Unaccounted For, New Report Finds
By Owen Kinsky, Daily Caller, Oct 17, 2024
The enormous sum represents almost 40% of the climate funds the Bank disbursed during the seven-year time period, with World Bank data failing to show the recipients and uses of the money, the Oxfam investigation found.
Trends In Atlantic Cat 5 Hurricanes
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 23, 2024
I have already complained to the BBC about their article, and in particular the graph. Will they ignore what the real hurricane scientists say?
I think we all know the answer to that!
[SEPP Comment: BBC has Milton as a Cat.5. According to NOAA Climate.gov, Milton made Cat 5 briefly while in the western Caribbean. It weakened to a Cat 3 at landfall.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Climate change reshapes cities, both environmentally and financially
By Saul Elbein, The Hill, Oct 25, 2024
In thousands of U.S. towns and cities, worsening climate threats — largely due to fossil fuels — trap cities in a paradox.
[SEPP Comment: With increasing prosperity and urbanization? In the US, about 4 out of 5 people live in urban areas (80%).]
Paper mills: the ‘cartel-like’ companies behind fraudulent scientific journals
By Rizqy Amelia Zein, The Conversation, Accessed Oct 23, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Science and Nature, two leading science journals, have revealed a growing problem: an alarming rise in fraudulent research papers produced by shady paper mill companies. This wave of fake studies is creating a major headache for the academic world, putting the integrity of global academic research at risk.
[SEPP Comment: Science and Nature are not scientific journals, but politized journals. They refuse to publish papers based on physical evidence that question the claim the human emissions of carbon dioxide are causing dangerous global warming.]
Something Is Wrong With The Telegraph!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 24, 2024
Look what the wind blew in
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 23, 2024
Yet The Economist intones “Hurricanes use warm ocean water as fuel. Hotter oceans mean stronger storms.”
Yeah? So just how hot were the oceans in 1893? And are you agreeing that the 1930s were hotter than any decade since?
[SEPP Comment: As Robson states, 1933 was a severe hurricane year.]
BBC Claim Hurricanes Are Getting Stronger–IPCC Says They Are Not!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 25, 2024
Council net zero target postponement ‘concerning’
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 24, 2024
You don’t have to guess what the BBC’s position is on this!!
So critics say the authority was “not dealing with the climate emergency” . What a joke! Do these critics, which basically means the BBC, honestly think a bit of virtue signaling by this district council will change the world’s weather?
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 23, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Increased pathogen exposure of a marine apex predator over three decades
By Karyn D. Rode, et al. PLOS One, Oct 23, 2024 [H/t Carbon Brief]
From Abstract: We examined prevalence and risk factors associated with exposure to parasites and viral and bacterial pathogens in Chukchi Sea polar bears.
[SEPP Comment: How to lie with statistics: A ridiculously small area of the Arctic is included in the 2008-2017 samples and concentrated in a different location that more varied 1988-1994 samples.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
A Billion Climate Refugees
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 25, 2024
The Daily Sceptic’s Environmental Editor, Chris Morrison, takes on environmental campaigner, who claims there will soon be a billion climate refugees:
Apparently, it will soon be too hot to survive in places like Africa.
Video
1000 Year Rainfall Claims Are Poppycock
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 20, 2024
If it is based on the historical record, they can only tell us about the situation in the last hundred years or so. In other words, the once every 70 years they mention, which given that these are based on individual locations is probably accurate. It also implies that the US will likely see this sort of event somewhere every year.
But, based on the historic record, they have no way of knowing how frequent these events were before “global warming”. And this is where the models are twisted to provide whatever results the authors are looking for – that is, a 1000-year event.
The whole objective is to frighten the public into believing that weather is any worse than it has always been:
It is not just poor science; it is deliberate disinformation.
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Public agreement with misinformation about wind farms
By Kevin Winter, Nature Communications, Oct 15, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire}
From the abstract: Misinformation campaigns target wind farms, but levels of agreement with this misinformation among the broader public are unclear. Across six nationally quota-based samples in the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia (total N = 6008), over a quarter of respondents agree with half or more of contrarian claims about wind farms
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Conflict, poverty and water management issues exposing vulnerable communities in Africa to extreme floods that are now common events because of climate change
By Staff, World Weather Attribution (WWA) Oct 23, 2024
Clueless ‘Fact Check’ of Daily Sceptic Climate Article Descends into Pure Gibberish
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Oct 25, 2024
If there was an award for worst fact check of the year, the recent attempt by the French state-owned Agence France-Presse (AFP) to smear the Daily Sceptic would be the clear favourite to win. Taking issue with our report of a recent paper published by Nature that found no “surge” in global temperatures since 1970, the AFP author Manon Jacob branded the article “misleading” purely on the basis of a random selection of what other commentators had written on social media.
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Junk survey claims young Americans think “Humanity is Doomed” and are hesitant to have children
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 19, 2024
Link to paper on the poll: Climate emotions, thoughts, and plans among US adolescents and young adults: a cross-sectional descriptive survey and analysis by political party identification and self-reported exposure to severe weather events
By R Eric Lewandowski, et al., The Lancet Planetary Health, Oct 17, 2024
Opening of Summary: Climate change has adverse effects on youth mental health and wellbeing, but limited large-scale data exist globally or in the USA. Understanding the patterns and consequences of climate-related distress among US youth can inform necessary responses at the individual, community, and policy level.
[SEPP Comment: Humanity has always experienced climate change.]
UCSD Students To Prevent Hurricanes And Floods
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 19, 2024
Expanding the Orthodoxy
The Energy Crisis Commission is Just Another Green Blob Front – The Daily Sceptic
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 20, 2024
Link to: The Energy Crisis Commission is Just Another Green Blob Front
By Ben Pile, The Daily Sceptic, Oct 18, 2024
Ben Pile sums it up nicely when he says:
It would seem that the British Establishment, of which Citizens Advice and NEA are a part, is as good as the ECF at spawning off-the-shelf blob-fronts, populated by individuals who are naturally happier occupying such positions than challenging the Establishment they are part of. Millions of people are facing cold and rising bills this winter, and the “Citizens Advice” to Government is apparently to close down more oil and gas fields and create more weather-dependent renewables without regard for reality.
Questioning European Green
Government admits climate consensus is breaking down
Net Zero Watch says failure to prepare official cost estimate is culpable
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Oct 25, 2024
Net Zero is Losing the Battle of Ideas
By David Turver, The Daily Sceptic, Oct 22, 2024
[In a debate] I managed to take him to task in the ensuing debate by pointing out that even if you believe CO2 causes warming, then it is a big leap to conclude that building windmills will change the weather. This is the so-called mitigation strategy that can only work if 1) CO2 is the only climate control knob (we know this to be untrue from paleo-climate records) and 2) everyone else follows the strategy (you only need to look at charts of global greenhouse gas emissions to see this is also untrue).
How EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms Expose FALSE Cheap Green Energy Claims
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 24, 2024
If Renewables are the cheapest form of energy, why does the EU need a carbon border tax to protect EU based industries?
Preliminary Thoughts on Taking Anglo American Private
By Robert G. Eccles, Real Clear Energy, Oct 23, 2024
[A British multinational mining company]
Mining companies are also subject to pressure from some investors and NGOs to be net-zero by 2050 for all scopes of their carbon emissions.
[SEPP Comment: Net Zero Mining, use 18th century muscle power from horses and men?]
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Green Blob-Funded Report Calls for Massive Frequent Flyer Levies That Would Devastate International Air Travel
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Oct 21, 2024
A radical new plan to reduce international air travel from Europe to minimal levels over the next few years has been proposed by a group of Net Zero fanatics led by the New Economics Foundation (NEF). Massive charges under a ‘frequent flyer levy’ are proposed, the effect of which could quickly destroy large sections of the international air transportation industry.
Power The Future Report Exposes Wasteful Green Spending
By Daniel Turner, Real Clear Energy, Oct 23, 2024
Link to report: Green Fail: How Environmental Policies are Practically Implemented, Along With Their Impacts on People’s Everyday Lives
By Staff, Power The Future, October 2024
The ‘green’ scam of the century: ‘Renewables’ increase fossil fuel demands
By Ronald Stein and John Shanahan, America Outloud News, Oct 21, 2024
Funding Issues
Overnight Success: Biden’s Climate Splurge Gives Billions to Nonprofit Newbies
By James Varney, RealClearInvestigations, Oct 22, 2024
Although there isn’t much public information available about the Justice Climate Fund, it appears to have been an overnight success.
After gaining nonprofit status in August 2023, the organization was awarded $940 million by the Biden administration just eight months later in connection with the White House’s $27 billion Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, which aims to provide financial assistance to reduce carbon emissions and reduce pollution.
The Political Games Continue
A conservative climate plan
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 23, 2024
[SEPP Comment: The quest for: a ‘world leader in the low-carbon energy future.’]
Robert Jenrick: “I Would Tear up Unconservative Climate Change Act as Tory Leader”
By Toby Young, The Daily Sceptic, Oct 20, 2024
On carbon budgets, the Tory leadership candidate said: “It is ludicrous to set out soviet-style five-year plans at a sectoral level which specify where you plan to reduce carbon emissions. The state does not have sufficient understanding of the economy to do that well. It’s impeding us from building the critical national infrastructure we need.”
Litigation Issues
Supreme Court to consider which courts can weigh challenges to some EPA actions
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct 21, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Speculation: Is it considering specialty courts? Likely, they are needed.]
WSJ Lead Editorial Cites LNG Scandal Outed by GAO
By Staff, Government Accountability & Oversight, Oct 25, 2024
GAO’s lawyer Chris Horner says he was told DOE had already conducted a study. Sure enough, DOE responded that it had identified 97 potentially responsive documents to the FOIA request, totaling 4,354 pages. The department refused to turn them over, stating they don’t represent a “final LNG export study” that “is ready for release for the public’s view.”
NEPA Overhaul Required to Reduce Supply Chain Risks and Eliminate Barriers to Net Zero
By Debra Struhsacker & Sarah Montalbano, Real Clear Energy, Oct 21, 2024
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Biden administration expands tax credit for producing solar, wind and battery components
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct 24, 2024
Compared to a proposed guidance issued late last year, the final guidance makes the credit more lucrative for industry — which officials said could help expand both domestic manufacturing and domestic mining.
The tax credit applies to the production of a wide range of components including the making of solar grade polysilicon, battery cells and the refining of key minerals.
[SEPP Comment: If the product is viable, why are subsidies needed?]
Biden administration announces $3 billion for rural electric co-ops
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Oct 25, 2024
The Biden administration announced more than $3 billion Friday in funding for seven rural electric cooperatives, part of a broader effort to promote renewable energy in rural areas.
[SEPP Comment: How will renewable energy in rural areas reduce costs to the consumer?]
The Paradox of Fossil Fuel Subsidies Reforms
By Yomna Gaafar, Real Clear Energy, Oct 21, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Opening sentence: “Despite the urgency of the climate crisis…”]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA internal guidance recommends employees remove insignias during dangerous field work
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Oct 24, 2024
The guidance, distributed Tuesday and shared with The Hill, outlines procedures in scenarios it says may be particularly high-risk for violence in the field, citing factors such as remote locations, planned protests or demonstrations, street crime or recent local targeted violence — particularly gender-, race- or sexual orientation-based violence.
Two Lawsuits Challenge Swampbuster and the Regulatory Labyrinth of the Administrative State
By Janet Levy, American Thinker, Oct 25, 2024
Energy Issues – Non-US
House of Lords Debate Net Zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 25, 2024
I put down a Question some while ago to the Government asking whether they knew of any peer-reviewed science, or science produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—whose job it is to consider the science—which forecasts that, if we do nothing over the coming centuries, it will lead to the extinction of the human race or even its immiseration. They said that no, there was no such peer-reviewed science, so those who invoke it are invoking something that is not peer-reviewed science, although that does not mean to say that it is wrong. Some things can turn out to be right that have not yet got through the peer review process. But let us not pretend that we are dealing with a threat that scientists have declared to be existential—they have not.
Net Zero could cost £300,000 per household
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Oct 24, 2024
Link to report: A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Net Zero
By Andrew Montford, forward by Lord Mackenlay, Net Zero Watch, October 2024
Lord Mackinlay: Britain’s political consensus, it seems, is to tax CO2 emissions at a higher rate than the damage they do and then spend trillions more subsidising technologies that the public would not choose without compulsion. This cannot be sustainable.
Montford: These figures are horrifying, but should still be seen as conservative, because the study makes no attempt to find costs for hard-to-decarbonise sectors, such as aviation and shipping. It’s clear that the UK is on the road to economic ruin.
NESO Paid £1030/MWh To Import Electricity From Europe During Blackout Threat This Week
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 19, 2024
There is, of course, a moral to this story.
When wind power is short, we pay the price.
But when wind power is abundant, we don’t get the benefit, because wind farms still get their guaranteed CfD price. Any benefit from a lower wholesale price is wiped out by increased subsidies.
[SEPP Comment: NESO is the UK National Energy System Operator.]
Cuba hit by second blackout after grid collapse
By Ashleigh, The Hill, Oct 19, 2024
Energy Justice in Africa? Energy Exceptionalism Please
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Oct 22, 2024
Energy Issues – Australia
AEMO Head Avoids Endorsing a Government Guarantee that Renewables will Reduce Energy Prices
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 23, 2024
Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)
Energy Issues — US
Simple Cycle, Combined Cycle, or a Hybrid Approach?
By Drew Robb, Power Mag, Oct 23, 2024
Simple cycle gas turbines provide efficiency levels of around 35% to 40%. Combined cycle units boost efficiency to 60% and beyond. But another option is emerging that combines the attributes of simple and combined cycle designs. This hybrid configuration uses a single power turbine expander and recycles exhaust heat back to the combustor to combine the best of both worlds. Known as the VAST (Value Added Steam Technologies) Power Cycle, it promises efficiency levels above 50%.
The Lone Star State needs more fast-starting dispatchable backup capacity to support a flood of renewables coming onto the grid that bring about greater variability of supply. The EIA predicts 14 times higher increase in non-dispatchable solar and wind generation compared to dispatchable peaking power and nuclear power in 2024 (37% solar and 6% wind vs. 2% natural gas and 1% nuclear). This shows a rapidly rising need for dispatchable backup of growing solar and wind power.
[SEPP Comment: Addresses a way to improve the capacity factor, the percentage of installed capacity that is used to produce power. Simple cycle gas turbines are not efficient, combined cycle units require time, while wind and solar fail abruptly.]
Natural Gas or Coal, do we have a choice?
By Dr. Lars Schernikau, WUWT, Oct 21, 2024
[SEPP Comment: US has abundant resources of both.]
Both Green Dreams and Real Needs Pose Challenges for Energy Future
By Matthew Roy, Real Clear Energy, Oct 22, 2024
Link to: How Ashburn, VA became the Colocation Mecca known as Data Center Alley
How did Ashburn, Virginia come to host 70% of the world’s internet traffic? Here we discuss the past, present and future of Data Center Alley.
By Ginger Woolridge, Lightyear, Nov 12, 2021
Navigating the physical realities of the energy transition
By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, Oct 22, 2024
Link to: The hard stuff: Navigating the physical realities of the energy transition
By Mekala Krishnan, et al., McKinsey Global Institute, Aug 14, 2024
[SEPP Comment: The report is 196 pages; the executive summary is 15 pages. Caiazza addresses shortcomings of the report from the perspective of New York State energy needs and dreams.]
AEP Ohio Proposes New Utility Tariff for Data Centers to Offset Infrastructure Costs
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Oct 24, 2024
[SEPP Comment: What about the cost of maintaining the grid and the reliable power capacity 24/7?]
Washington’s Control of Energy
House Oversight Committee Presses DoE on LNG “Scandal-pause” Exposed by GAO
By Staff, Government Accountability & Oversight, Oct 25, 2024
“In other words, according to Horner, the Department of Energy possessed a nonpartisan study showing the environmental, economic, and national security benefits of continued natural gas exports when it chose to block those same projects earlier this year.”
Major Texas Solar Project Will Power Google’s Data Centers, Cloud Operations
By Darrell Procter, Power Mag, Oct 20, 2024
U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm joined SB Energy officials on Friday at a ribbon-cutting for the Orion project. “The Biden-Harris Administration envisioned an industrial strategy for clean energy that’s built and installed by American workers and powering American companies in proud American communities.
[SEPP Comment: Socking in the subsidies. Where will the power come from at night? From the consumer supported grid, who are getting socked.]
Biden administration puts $428M into manufacturing projects in coal communities
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct 22, 2024
These projects include facilities that will make things like batteries and low-carbon cement, which the administration said will help the climate.
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
La. Gov. Landry Recognizes Natural Gas as “Affordable, Reliable, and Clean”
By The Empowerment Alliance, Real Clear Energy, Oct 21, 2024
Nuclear Energy and Fears
What Are Microreactors and How Soon Could We See One in Operation
By Aaron Larson, Power Mag, Oct 22, 2024
Link to: Nuclear-Powered Ships
By Staff, World Nuclear Association, Feb 15, 2024
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Another Study Shows Low-Frequency Vibrations From Wind Turbines Can Harm Human Health
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 23, 2024
Link to research: Chronic Infrasound Impact is Suspected of Causing Irregular Information via Endothelial Mechano-transduction and Far-reaching Disturbance of Vascular Regulation in All Organisms
By Ursula Maria Bellut-Staeck, Medical Research and Its Applications, June 25, 2024
From abstract: The present knowledge sheds new light on the importance of low frequencies. The endothelial cytoskeleton identified now as a low-pass filter, offers the possibility for mechano-transduction. There is strong evidence that parts of the energy transmission of low-frequency oscillations become irregular information at the endothelial level that interferes with the autochthonous control of the microcirculation.
Marine ecosystems, but also insects, appear to be particularly at risk from increasing emissions of very low frequencies. There is evidence for the increasing incompatibility of ever lower frequencies for all organisms and therefore for whole biodiversity. [Italics in original.]
Industrial Wind Turbine Noise: A Summary
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Oct 25, 2024
Will wind and solar hammer hydro in Washington State?
By David Wojick, CFACT, Oct 21, 2024
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
BLM Approves Major 2-GW Geothermal Project in Utah
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Oct 19, 2024
Link to: The Geysers of California
By Sara Pratt, NASA Earth Observatory, Jan 10, 2022
Link to: Geothermal Power: Technology Brief
By Staff, The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), September 2017
The DEFR Follies — Cost Of Hydrogen Storage
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Oct 18, 2024
Here in New York, we have our own unique and special acronym for how we think we are going to make our future emissions-free electrical grid work with predominantly wind and solar generation. The acronym is DEFR — the “Dispatchable Emissions-Free Resource.”
H 2 No
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 23, 2024
Well, that was fast. From a standing start, hydrogen became the fuel of the future then a passé dud at remarkable speed. So trendy was it that Canada’s Prime Minister sent Europeans seeking natural gas packing two years ago with the patronizing pat on the head that there was no business case for selling it instead promising hydrogen export terminals powered by windmills. But now the whole thing seems to be doing a Hindenburg.
[SEPP Comment: Amazing, Big Tech is not investing in the fuel of the future!]
Get 45V Right: Unlocking Hydrogen’s Potential for a Clean Future
By Hugh Daigle, Real Clear Energy, Oct 24, 2024
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Researchers say Arkansas may have 19M tons of lithium critical for battery power
By Tara Suter, The Hill, Oct 21, 2024
Link to paper: Evaluation of the lithium resource in the Smackover Formation brines of southern Arkansas using machine learning
By Katherine J. Knierim, et al., AAAS Science Advances, Sep 27, 2024
Carbon Schemes
CO2 Coalition: Don’t Waste Money on CO2 Removal
Petition to the Wyoming Energy Authority, by Gregory Wrightstone and Frits Byron Soepyan, CO2 Coalition, Oct 22, 2024
California Dreaming
Ways California Can Have Abundant Energy
By Edward Ring, What’s Current, Accessed Oct 23, 2024
California Keeps Driving Up Gas Prices With ‘Layers And Layers’ Of Green Rules And Regs
By Nike Pope, Daily Caller, Oct 22, 2024
[SEPP Comment: The result of a regulatory government, higher prices for consumers.]
Health, Energy, and Climate
#CheerfulCharts #12: Global tuberculosis death rates
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 23, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Perhaps Mimi, in the opera La Boheme who is dying of tuberculosis, could splendidly sing praises to these statistics.]
Environmental Industry
Greenpeace Exploits Texas Tragedy for Its Own Gain
By Wayne Christian, Real Clear Energy, Oct 21, 2024
Supposed Guardians of Rhode Island’s Waters Sell Out To Big Wind
Is Save the Bay Still Rhode Island’s Ocean Watch Dog?
By Jody Stone, Legal Insurrection, Oct 23, 2024
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Safe Climate Of 1791
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 22 & 23, 2024
Audio https://realclimatescience.com/2024/10/safe-climate-of-1791/#gsc.tab=0
Text: https://realclimatescience.com/2024/10/the-safe-climate-of-1791/#gsc.tab=0
David Lammy flew like a King in private jet to China while Charles humbly took commercial flight for royal tour.
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 22, 2024
“Foreign Secretary David Lammy travelled in style last week, using a Government VIP Airbus A321 for his official visit to China.
In contrast, King Charles had to make do with a commercial flight from Heathrow for his trip to Australia.”
Quite why they are threatening legal action, when they have admitted the story is true rather sums up this nasty authoritarian government we have been lumbered with.
[SEPP Comment: We know what the head bureaucrats thinks of themselves.]
In Deep State warfare space rockets need to show they don’t hurt sharks
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 21, 2024
Includes video of Musk explaining nutty requirements.
California subsidies for manure-based biogas face rising scrutiny over pollution concerns
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Oct 23, 2024
U.S. Voters Disenfranchised by Climate Change
Electoral planning needs to envision increasingly severe extremes that disrupt the casting and counting of ballots
By Karen Florini and Alice C. Hill, Think Global Heath, Oct 21, 2024 [H/t Kathleen Worman]
Link to: Disenfranchised by Climate Change
By Karen Florini and Alice C. Hill, Climate Central, 2024
Initial work for this report was conducted by the authors during their Residency at the Rockefeller Foundation’s Bellagio Center
From the article: Absent vigorous action to cut the accumulation of heat-trapping gasses in the atmosphere, more climate-juiced extremes lie ahead. Unnatural disasters will continue to undermine the ability to cast a ballot and have it counted. Yet election officials have taken few steps to prepare for a future in which extreme weather becomes increasingly prevalent.
The destruction from these hurricanes will likely threaten some voters’ right to vote, a fundamental democratic right.
[SEPP Comment: CO2 threatens voting rights? The Rockefeller octopus funding climate politics.]
UN Grants Earth A 100 Year Reprieve
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 24, 2024
https://realclimatescience.com/2024/10/un-grants-earth-a-100-year-reprieve/#gsc.tab=0
ARTICLES
No articles this week – too political
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World class wilful ignorance
Planet-heating pollutants in atmosphere hit record levels in 2023
Carbon dioxide concentration has increased by more than 10% in just two decades, reports World Meteorological Organization
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/28/planet-heating-pollutants-in-atmosphere-hit-record-levels-in-2023
Great Quote of the Week: Feynman’s “This freedom to doubt . . . (-:
Scope: This Week discusses its failure last week to emphasize that convection is the primary mechanism for moving heat from the surface to the upper atmosphere and then to space.
____________________________________________________________________________
Having been burnt by steam once or twice (three times would have been really stupid)
it’s obvious that latent heat is also a primary mover of heat from the surface to the upper atmosphere. Trenberth’s heat budget charts only give latent heat about ~70 – 80 w/m²
“Global efforts to tackle climate change are wildly off track, says the UN, as new data shows that warming gases are accumulating faster than at any time in human existence.
Current national plans to limit carbon emissions would barely cut pollution by 2030, the UN analysis shows, leaving efforts to keep warming under 1.5C this century in tatters.
The update comes as a separate report shows that greenhouse gases have risen by over 11% in the last two decades, with atmospheric concentrations surging in 2023.
Researchers are also worried that forests are losing their ability to soak up carbon, which could be contributing to record levels of warming gas in the atmosphere.”
From https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce8yyle2eq2o.
correct me if I’m wrong but wasn’t El Niño quite active in 2023 and that warm water can hold less carbon dioxide than the same water at a lower temperature?
How can they definitively state that “warming” gases are accumulating faster than at any time in human existence?
Is human existence apply to Homo sapiens only or does it include all of the homo genuses?
How is that even determined, unless they have a TARDIS?
“Global efforts to tackle…” People’s autonomy. Look at the lockdown[s] as a test run which showed they could they get away with it. Then came the heartless, forced and coerced behaviours. Or else…
And the elites carried on as usual.
“faster than at any time in human existence”
Given that wealth, technology and population are increasing, could it be otherwise?
Five or Ten New Proofs of the Pythagorean Theorem
Perhaps no subject in mathematics generates more confusion and anxiety for high school students than trigonometry. It’s beyond the scope of this paper (and beyond our ability) to examine why trigonometry is so confusing, but one reason may be that there are two different ways to define the same trigonometric terms, as in Figure 2 of Section 2. Figure 1 shows how these methods are usually reconciled and yet it’s possible this figure does more harm than good. Students may not realize that two competing versions of trigonometry have been stamped onto the same terminology. In that case, trying to make sense of trigonometry can be like trying to make sense of a picture where two different images have been printed on top of each other.
Written by two 17 years old teenies!
“The conterminous 48 states of United States make the largest land area with reasonable saturation of instruments since 1880. However, state records show the hottest decade was the 1930s and in recent years the national record has been “adjusted” (manipulated) to the point that no one understands to what extent.”
Someone must have all the unadjusted data network drive.
“Pleistocene Ice Ages display abrupt Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) climate oscillations that provide prime examples of Earth System tipping points—abrupt transition that may result in irreversible change.” had me worried for a while – I have looked very hard for such tipping points in Earth’s history, and for others finding them, and found none. So it was a relief to see the follow-up: Earth System tipping points creating irreversible change are an absurd concept. Phew! Back to reality.
Monster.
The eye of the typhoon is headed between Luzon and Taiwan.
