Hurricane Helene made landfall on Friday Sept 27th in Florida as a Category 4 storm and then made its way inland, dumping large amounts of rain followed by flooding. Predictably, many media outlets immediately rushed to blame climate change for this particular storm and its damage. These claims are false. Data shows there is no climate signal over the past 50 years of hurricane activity either worsening intensity or creating more frequent hurricanes. Additionally, historical records show that flooding such as was seen from this storm has happened in the same areas before.
This is the second time this week Climate Realism is covering this particular storm, but the claims from the media are extensive and worth debunking more than once. Here’s a sampling of some of the headlines. The Hill wrote, “How climate change is intensifying storms like Hurricane Helene.” Yahoo news claimed, “Helene shows that hurricanes in the age of climate change don’t wreck just coastlines,” while The Guardian opined, “‘Nowhere is safe’: shattered Asheville shows stunning reach of climate crisis“. The Associated Press (AP) chimed in with, “Helene and other storms dumped a whopping 40 trillion gallons of rain on the South.” Even the Mayor of Tampa, Fl, Jane Castor, jumped on the climate alarm bandwagon by declaring in a CNN interview, “I don’t know that there’s anyone that anyone can deny the effects of climate change on the sheer power of the storms we’re seeing now.”
All of these claims ignore actual data and historical records. They also ignore the unique meteorological (not climatological) circumstances that created the potential for more rainfall and flooding.
First it needs to be said that weather events are not climate events. Weather operates on vastly different timescales than climate does.
Second, the claims of climate change worsening storms such as Helene just don’t hold up when actual data is examined. For example, meteorologist Ryan Maue, Ph.D, who is quoted in the AP story noted above maintains a running plot of “Accumulated Cyclone Energy” which tracks how much power is actually in hurricanes on a month-by-month basis, seen in the figure 1 below, updated through 2024.
He writes on his research page:
Tropical cyclone accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) has exhibited strikingly large global interannual variability during the past 40-years. In the pentad since 2006, Northern Hemisphere and global tropical cyclone ACE has decreased dramatically to the lowest levels since the late 1970s. Additionally, the frequency of tropical cyclones has reached a historical low.
So much for the Mayor of Tampa’s claim that “I don’t know that there’s anyone that anyone can deny the effects of climate change on the sheer power of the storms we’re seeing now.” The actual data denies your claim.
If climate change were in fact making such storms as Helene more powerful, it would show up in the ACE plot, but it doesn’t.
Further, meteorological science says there is no linkage between climate change and hurricane. A page on the topic maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory clearly states there no strong evidence for such claims:
Finally, climate science itself says there is no connection between climate change and hurricane strength or frequency. In Table 12.12on Page 90 – Chapter 12 of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. Emergence of Climate Impact Drivers (CIDs) in time periods, shows no indication of a connection in the present, nor in the future. The color in the table corresponds to the confidence of the region with the highest confidence: white colors indicate where evidence of a climate change signal is lacking or the signal is not present, leading to overall low confidence of an emerging signal. Note the colors for Tropical Cyclones in the table screencap below:
As mentioned in Climate at a Glance: Hurricanes, the IPCC’s AR6 WG1 report, released in August 2021, the IPCC noted, “Identifying past trends in TC [tropical storm] metrics remains a challenge,” a statement that essentially admits scientists have yet to identify a solid measurable upward trend in the data.
The media and uninformed politicians such as Tampa’s Mayor Castor seem to conveniently forget the recent past. The United States recently went more than a decade (2005 through 2017) without a major hurricane—a hurricane measuring Category 3 or higher—making landfall. That is the longest such period in recorded United States history. If climate change was worsening hurricanes, such a drought of hurricanes wouldn’t have been possible.
Clearly, despite the hyped-up media claims, data, science, and history all show their claims of climate change affecting hurricanes to be completely untrue.
But what about the claims that Helene’s huge rainfall and subsequent flooding was caused by climate change? Meteorologist Chris Martz gave a complete analysis of the weather event on Twitter. Some excerpts:
I will take a moment to explain the meteorology behind the floods in North Carolina [and Tennessee]. The precipitation analysis for the last two-days [from 12z today] reveals that over a foot of rain has fallen in the Appalachians. This amount of rain in such a short amount of time, regardless of land topography, results in widespread [and often devastating] inundation.
The reason you see 14-18 inches of rain [purple / pink contours in the image below] along the eastern slope of the Blue Ridge [mountains] is because of strong mountain-enhanced orographic lift. [in the second figure below] As moist parcels of air in the bands of Helene rotated counterclockwise through the region, they were then dynamically lifted to supersaturation on sloped terrain causing excess vapor to condense and precipitate out. On the leeward side in Tennessee, there was a bit of a rain shadow effect due to downslope flow, so rainfall totals were lower. This is what happens on the Hawaiian Islands on just about a daily basis.
https://twitter.com/ChrisMartzWX/status/1840225102023041285
So, a combination of the storm and local terrain made rainfall heavier in the mountains near Asheville, NC like it always does. Climate had nothing to do with it.
And, history shows us this sort of heavy rain resulting in flooding around Asheville North Carolina has happened before. Here are some photos of a newspaper story and a photo of Asheville, NC from July 17th, 1916 when a major flooding event occurred:
The challenge for the media and politicians is to explain how such a catastrophic flooding event occurred in Asheville before climate change ever became an issue, and the atmospheric content of carbon dioxide (said to increase climate change and storms supposedly driven by it) was far lower than today.
They can’t. Instead, they would prefer to stick with a popular narrative claiming a “climate crisis” caused this storm and the subsequent damage rather than pay attention to data, science, and history which says the complete opposite. This is wildly wrong, and beyond simple ignorance, it is journalistic and political malfeasance.
Anthony Watts is a senior fellow for environment and climate at The Heartland Institute. Watts has been in the weather business both in front of, and behind the camera as an on-air television meteorologist since 1978, and currently does daily radio forecasts. He has created weather graphics presentation systems for television, specialized weather instrumentation, as well as co-authored peer-reviewed papers on climate issues. He operates the most viewed website in the world on climate, the award-winning website wattsupwiththat.com.
Originally posted at ClimateREALISM
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Yup!
A hurricane, in hurricane season, in a normal hurricane-prone location. Obviously that’s Climate Change ™!
Biden actually said that people who doubt that it’s because of climate change are “brain dead”:
‘President Biden called on Americans Wednesday to “put politics aside” to focus on Hurricane Helene recovery efforts — moments before stepping on his own message by saying that anyone who doubts climate change’s role in the disaster “must be brain dead.”’ -NY Post.
Like himself, he later whispered. 🙂
But, but, but it must be climate change! Everything is caused by climate change!!
It probably caused the Big Bang.
Climate change has become the cause of and solution to all the left’s “problems”.
The left are the problem
It certainly caused my enlarged prostate!
The damage is so bad because of development. Paving, channelizing rivers, infrastructure not built to handle current population. https://www.johnlocke.org/snapshot-of-the-day-nc-population-growth-1990-2035/
People, including those migrating from urban ‘blue’ to rural ‘red’ jurisdictions need to pay attention to geography. Steep, v-shaped valleys are indicative of, and always prone to, catastrophic flooding – it’s just a question of ‘when’, not ‘if’.
At least people now know where not to build and adapt infrastructure like bridges so they are not so vulnerable to fast moving water with lots of debris in it blocking the waterway building a temporary dam on the up river side of the bridge until pressure just is too much.
On the other hand we need these kind of weather event to bring sediments to the oceans to keep our deltas and beaches in good conditions. River dams in this aspect are a death sentence to a lot of beaches.
At least people now know where not to build
You’re assuming they learn anything. My experience from living in CA many years tells me they won’t.
People still haven’t learned that water runs downhill.
I don’t know if history means anything to the “if it didn’t occur during my lifetime, it didn’t occur, crowd. Thanks, Anthony, for the lesson which would normally be buried.
Since most people do not remember last year or even something said a week ago, you need to emend your statement.
Whatever is in the headlines today is the “truth” even when it contradicts yesterday’s headlines.
As a society, we have been trained in “scan and scroll” with a 13 second attention span.
And where do people go to find out more?
The internet and things like social media and Wikipedia.
And Google, which is in cahoots with the UN to promote the Climate Syndicate reports and demote counterpoint reports.
Wiki is moderated by leftists.
Social media really needs to be viewed and treated as entertainment and never as a source of news.
Why stop with hurricanes? Whenever tornadoes strike, don’t the alarmists pounce by asserting that climate change is making these more widespread and severe even if the evidence refutes their claims. They pointedly steer clear of mentioning the Tri-State Tornado of 1925 which swept across, Missouri, Illinois and Iowa killing some 700 and destroying of damaging almost 10,000 buildings and structures. Where was the excessive fossil fuel use at that time? Where were all the motor vehicles on the roads, aircraft in the skies, agricultural machinery, etc. that are contributing to such violent weather now? Or maybe it’s a case of such storms developing naturally as they always have.
What’s really amazing about this planet is that much of the time- there is no severe weather event. So, severe weather events ought to be accepted as perfectly normal and something to be expected.
One graph is enough…
It is my understanding that there were NO CONUS landfalling Cat. 3, 4 or 5 hurricanes during 2005 – 2017, a period of over 11 years.
And a comparison of hurricane from the “new ice age” period to the 25 years after, is also very telling
Biden says you are brain dead if you don’t believe that Hurricane Helene was caused by climate change. He is a fine one to talk.
Biden has been braindead for his entire political life.
Biden thinks a lot of rainfall out of a hurricane is evidence that there is a CO2-caused climate crisis. Biden is a real moron, especially now.
Biden also said today that Israel should *not* attack Iran’s nuclear weapons making facilities as part of its response to Iran’s missile attack on Israel. Now why would Joe Biden say such a thing? Joe Biden wants no harm to come to the nuclear program of the Mad Mullahs? Whose side is Joe Biden on?
Fortunately the Israelis usually listen, nod their heads, and do as they think best. They have even stopped telling the US what they plan to do before they do it.
Yeah, Bebe is on his own. Fortunately, he understands the situation and takes appropriate action and does not pay attention to appeasers like Biden..
The Israelis would be crazy to not take this occasion to take out the nuclear facilities of the Mad Mullhas. Along with their missile production facilities and their drone production facilities. They should leave the oil production facilities alone. The Iranian people will need that after they overthrow the Mad Mullahs. And there are other ways to stop the Mad Mullahs from selling oil.
When Trump was told that Biden wanted Israel to spare the Mad Mullah’s nuclear weapons facilities, Trump said that was the craziest idea he had ever heard.
What kind of a mindset thinks it is ok to allow religious fanatics, who constantly chant “Death to America” to acquire nuclear weapons? That is the mindset of a person who is detached from reality. A very dangerous person when he is the leader of our country. His delusions place us in jeopardy as he allows our worst enemies to acquire the most dangerous weapons.
Hang on Bebe! Relief is coming if Trump gets elected and it looks like that is going to happen.
Anthony, thank you!
The climate change narrative is like a religious type following. If
one believes this thing there is no way they can be dissuaded.
A couple of examples is the Jonestown Massacre or the Branch Davidians.
Once one is a believer they will see climate change in every weather event.
Also everytime they look in the rearview mirror.
More photos of Asheville in 1916 can be seen here: https://www.citizen-times.com/picture-gallery/news/local/2024/09/26/1916-floods/75395505007/. There was certainly a lot fewer buidlings and houses there then.
Thanks Anthony – well done.
The photograph from 1916 of the Asheville Grocery Company makes me wonder what stands on the site today (or maybe 2 weeks ago)?
There are other old photos and a little research on what was where then and what happened next could keep researchers busy for a year.
Most of those old buildings were gone a long time ago, The River Arts District is down the road a little and can be seen in these current photos: https://carolinapublicpress.org/65699/images-of-asheville-after-helene/. Look for Depot St and the railway line which just behind the large building on the left in the 1916 photo.
My high school science teacher (1964) told us about the ‘rain shadow’ effect in explaining our local weather. West side of hills (towards the ocean) were lush and green and east side were dry.
At some point the mainstream media must be held responsible for outright lies. Freedom of the press does not guarantee freedom to lie.
Please be careful what you wish for. The antidote to lies is the truth, and lots of it. We do not need a government sponsored Ministry of Truth.
Very true.
Fight for and support open access to information. If a source’s information is not true, fight to preserve other sources to counter what is not true.
We don’t want only Government approved “information” to be the only sources available.
Freedom of the press does not guarantee freedom to lie.
Actually, it does. And it should – because otherwise you have to have someone determine what is “truth” (which would be the government), and we saw where that got us in 2020.
We have a perfect storm (see what I did). Abysmal ignorance of most populations, too few scientists chasing too much grant money, and a grotesquely inadequate media complex replaced by Cheetos chomping snowflakes (did it again) blogging from their mom’s basement, all smurgled together into a porridge eaten by the masses.
While Anthony delivers needed clarity on pertinent facts as usual, perhaps another item should be addressed as to things being “Wildly Wrong”. That is that Helene was not a CAT 4 storm at landfall. Perhaps the wording should have been “The official narrative was it was a CAT 4 storm at landfall”, although multiple data and observation sources are not in agreement with that narrative.
Numerous ground stations as the storm passed never got above sustained tropical storm force winds. But the most damning evidence against the official narrative is the Vortex data transmitted from the hurricane hunter aircraft, just before landfall, which is attached. It reports surface winds at 105-106 mph, a mere CAT 2 storm, not a CAT 4.
Seems our weather gate keepers not only fudge temperature numbers but they are doing it with Hurricane strength, and have been for as much as the past 7 years by my observation. (usually bumping up by one or two categories) Are they deliberately trying to make data agree with the climate change narrative, or are they pumping up the rhetoric to scare people into taking appropriate precautions as even low category storms pose significant risks to some locations and shelter choices??? Either reason is unacceptable in any sane person’s view.
Great summary, and exposure of more “climate” maleficence. 🙂
It is curious how a CAT 4 hurricane became a CAT 1 a mere 3 hours after landfall.
It is not curious that the storm degraded. It was the speed. Generally it takes 24 hours for a hurricane to reduce by half after landfall. That is, of course a generalization.
A 100% accurate statement that many chided me on is that: There is no land-based weather station wind speed data that shows hurricane-strength winds. None. NOAA stated that the Helene came ashore 10 miles south/southwest of Perry, Florida. They also said that hurricane-strength winds extended out 60 miles. Wind speeds at Perry maxed out at 52 mph. Being in the northeast quadrant of the storm, Perry should have seen very strong winds, but it didn’t.
People seek order in a chaotic world. We used to blame bad weather on the gods, and then make sacrifices and offerings to appease them.
Now we blame the almighty CO2 and seek to make sacrifices to reduce them.
Both ideologies offer some reassurance and semblance of control.
Simply acknowledging that bad stuff happens and we can’t do anything about it is too uncomfortable.
It is like my son’s dog, who barks at the thunder. It goes away and he is very proud of himself because he chased it away. You can’t convince him otherwise.
Even the thermostat in your house can not control your HVAC to a level the Climate Cabal claims humans can achieve in controlling the weather.
And in the news ….Steven Macintire
https://twitter.com/ClimateAudit?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1841514333274087862%7Ctwgr%5E98b242b052bf3cd0f3b26c82c1cd350ded93327a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheconservativetreehouse.com%2Fblog%2F2024%2F10%2F03%2Foctober-3rd-2024-presidential-politics-resistance-day-1354%2F
This happened before – see Vermont Tropical Storm Irene 2011 and no reason why it won’t happen again.
Lotta rain, high winds and very steep mountains.
Recipe for disaster.
It must be less costly for the people of Asheville to build and live in the flood plain and dry themselves out every 100 years than to build a defense system if that it is even possible to do. I feel bad for them because it looks like a beautiful place, but is it more rational to just get flooded?
Isn’t one definition of insanity the repeating of an action over and over again and expecting a different result?
Somehow I find it questionable to rebuild in a flood zone after being wiped out.
I am sure people have strong reasons for staying, but to do so without expecting future hazard?
Anthony Watts is a hurricane of fresh air. His coverage of Helene should be must reading for the general public. I wish school students could be assigned to read Anthony’s outstanding report.
Great article. Thanks.