And then, there is the one [true] faith… to bring them all and in the darkness bind them…
“”The chair of a leading Australian nuclear advocacy group has called concerns that carbon dioxide emissions are driving a climate crisis an “irrational fear of a trace gas which is plant food” and has rejected links between worsening extreme weather and global heating. … David Karoly, a councillor at the Climate Council and a respected atmospheric scientist who has been studying the affects of CO2 on the climate since the late 1980s, said Paterson’s statements were typical of those from climate science deniers. … Dr John Cook, an expert on climate change misinformation at the University of Melbourne, said Paterson was “regurgitating arguments” across a range of “thoroughly debunked talking points”.”” https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/17/dr-adi-paterson-nuclear-for-australia-climate-change
Well, at least the esteemed 6th form rag got one thing right; Cook most certainly is an expert on [climate change] misinformation, well 97% of the time he is.
The UK is drifting, has drifted actually, into a Chinese or Soviet approach to speech and publication, where legislation is phrased so vaguely that almost anything inconvenient that someone objects to can fall under it. The concept of ‘legal but harmful’ speech, which pending legislation will target is one example. The concept of ‘stirring up hatred’ is another. As is the concept, employed by many police forces, of recordable non-hate crime incidents. In this policy, you say something which offends someone who complains, the police come round and talk to you, you have broken no law, but the incident is recorded as a ‘non-hate crime incident’.
was a well known example of this, struck down by the courts, but the trend goes on and the new Government’s latest proposals in reaction to posts on social media in connexion with the recent rioting continues a trend which has been evident over both Labour and Conservative governments in recent decades.
It is correct that this can be used to bring back a law of blasphemy by the back door. There is a substantial academic literature which argues that the traditional historical account of the growth of Islam is incorrect – Patricia Krone, following John Wansbroughwas one well known scholar publishing to this effect. Citing or quoting from it could easily become ‘Islamophobia’, just as citing or quoting Kathleen Stock could easily become Transphobia, hate speech, stirring up hatred…
It can and probably will also be used to suppress criticism of policies of all kinds. Notably criticism of policies on gender (as Scotland has tried to do). Can it be long before asserting that Ed Miliband’s energy policies are pointless, impossible and unaffordable is classed as ‘legal but harmful’ and merits a call from the police?
This is about saving the planet and future generations, after all.
It’s no accident that vagueness has become “policy”. Labour were more than vague throughout the election campaign, and now it’s no different. Even they don’t seem to know what they will do next.
Fascism corner
My favourite recent fun fact?
Only one party has had a councillor arrested and charged for inciting murder. Can you guess which party?
“”councillor Ricky Jones has been arrested on suspicion of encouraging murder after comments at a London counter-protest.
Videos had emerged online reportedly showing Mr Jones telling a crowd in Walthamstow that far right demonstrators needed to have their throats cut.”” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz074vyvjzvo
However, the people chanting the Tory Party election slogan “Stop The Boats” while setting fire to buildings with children inside… were not thrown out of the Tory Party.
In fact, the Tory Party leadership who whipped up the hatred with that slogan have not even apologised.
However, the people chanting the Tory Party election slogan “Stop The Boats” while setting fire to buildings with children inside… were not thrown out of the Tory Party.
Where are there any reports that any of the rioters are members of the Conservative Party?
If they wee quoting Das Kapital would you doubt they were Communists?
If they were quoting Mein Kampf would you doubt they were Nazis? If they were quoting Labour slogans would you doubt they were Labour?
But you think the Tory party slogans are not a sign of being Tories.
With that logic as a defence, the Tories still need to apologise.
You say they ‘were not thrown out of the Tory Party‘. That, it appears, is because they were not in it to start with, and therefore could not be thrown out of it!
They may have echoed the slogan, but they were not members. Whereas the Labour Party person you referred to, who was expelled, was a member of that party. Different, do you see that its different?
Your reply is an interesting example of the UK trend. ‘Stop the boats’ may be something that people object to, but in no reasonable country with a tradition of free speech would it be regarded as an incitement to hatred. Its simply the expression of a point of view on illegal immigration.
We may think that the issue of migration to the UK should be addressed in a more compassionate way, more helpful to the migrants, than this slogan implies, which basically is saying stop them and don’t worry about it. But to propose simply stopping is not to incite hatred or violence to them. In the US such speech would definitely be covered by the 1st Amendment.
Another interesting aspect of this in the UK is that the chants of ‘from the river to the sea’, and the groups driving through North London’s Jewish areas chanting anti-Semitic slogans, have not been treated as inciting hatred, though arguably they are much more clearly that than ‘stop the boats’.
‘Stop the boats’ may be something that people object to, but in no reasonable country with a tradition of free speech would it be regarded as an incitement to hatred.
But the slogan was linked to the Tory policy of rounding people up and shipping them to a country that is so unsafe, the mere threat of doing it was deemed a deterrent. And that country was also so unsafe, no reasonable country could do it legally.
In fact, there were suggestions that we should join Russia as the only other country who would leave the European Court of Human Rights.
Speech calling for joining a militarist state in refusing people their human rights, is an incitement to hatred.
How can Free Speech be used as a defence for abandoning Magna Carta? Where does this Free Speech come from?
This is completely unbalanced, and its also disingenuous. You started out saying that the demonstrators were members of the Conservative Party, but had not been expelled. They apparently were not members, and you have dropped that false accusation.
You now move on to the suggestion that to advocate leaving the ECHR jurisdiction is an incitement to hatred, because Russia has refused to come under it. You claim that Russia is the only state to have left it.
However, the ECHR is confined to the 46 Council of Europe countries, and three countries, not being members of it, are not parties to it: Belarus, the Vatican and Russia.
There are 195 countries in the world today, so not to be one of the 45 members of the EHCR is actually not at all remarkable. Neither Canada nor the US are members of it either.
Whether Russia is a member or not is irrelevant and has no bearing on what you are trying to argue.
Speech objecting to illegal immigration is not incitement to hatred. Any more than speech objecting to any other form of law breaking is. And it is not abandoning Magna Carta either. It has nothing to do with Magna Carta. Or the Bill of Rights.
There is no human right to be an illegal immigrant, any more than there is to be a burglar.
You started out saying that the demonstrators were members of the Conservative Party, but had not been expelled. They apparently were not members, and you have dropped that false accusation.
Untrue. I proved they were Tory Party supporters. They quoted Tory party slogans. However, I have not got their membership cards as I am not Tory Party central Office or a rioter. That burden of proof is beyond me. But you are clearly setting a ludicrously high bar.
You now move on to the suggestion that to advocate leaving the ECHR jurisdiction is an incitement to hatred, because Russia has refused to come under it. You claim that Russia is the only state to have left it.
Which was wrong, on my part. Greece also left after the far-right coup. Russia left after invading Ukraine. However, your suggesting we should follow another un-democratic state is still going to be opposed by those who support freedom and democrat. Why are you on the side of Russia and far-right coups? The fact that the far-right government of Belarus never joined is not the winning argument you think it is, either. The Vatican City has an interesting problem relating to women’s rights and their access to the top position of Pope. Irrelevant.
And then you discard Magna Carta and the principle of proportionality.
There is no human right to be an illegal immigrant, any more than there is to be a burglar.
Thus calling for exile to a dangerous country at the cost of abandoning the rule of law (as the rule of law forbids it) and… back to where you started… setting fire to the buildings they live in with their children inside.
Finally, let me assure you, I am very awake to the threat posed by violent extremists and their armchair supporters.
I proved they were Tory Party supporters. They quoted Tory party slogans.
No, you did not prove they were Tory Party supporters. Or Reform supporters. Or supporters of any party, other than the Hooligan Tendency.
They picked up on a slogan which has been used by the Conservative Party, but has become quite a widespread one as it summarizes what some people think and is easily chanted and posted.
I am very awake to the threat posed by violent extremists and their armchair supporters.
The rioting was criminal, the attacks on the police deplorable. There is no excuse for them. There is also no excuse for trying to smear the Conservative Party by fake associations with them. The same thing is done by the right, attempting to stain the mass of normal law abiding Muslims in the country with the stigma of being Islamist nutters.
There is a legitimate point of view that illegal migration should be stopped, and that legal migration should be greatly diminished, and there is no use trying to tar those quite legitimate points of view on national policy with slogans like racism, fascism, xxphobia. It would be more to the point to debate and settle some rational, evidence based policy on the matters.
The UK is drifting, has drifted actually, into a Chinese or Soviet approach to speech and publication, where legislation is phrased so vaguely that almost anything inconvenient that someone objects to can fall under it.
Because the world started in ⅩⅨ century (or was it ⅩⅩ?), Plymouth colony was started by agents of Brezhnev with a Time Machine™, and what’s “constructive treason”? 😀
When I read your comment about Cook, my first reaction was “How could anyone with a technical PhD be so misinformed about CO2 and energy?” I looked up his education, and it stated his “PhD is in Cognitive Science at the University of Western Australia in 2016″. Looking at the degree pages, nothing was mentioned about basic physics at all. It seems to me to be more like an “Introduction to effective Propaganda” education, though they do brag of a “rich history of helping students take a leading role in shaping the future. It appears that your comment may be well founded.
Good, but you overcomplicate a very simple issue.
Harvard was and is a theological institution at its core. We can reasonably expect the same to be true of its clones. And expect the University of Western Australia to be such a clone — because, well, how many are not its clones by now?
The kind of power structures where theologists and preachers get to define the policy and play Ministry of Truth in the matters they know very little about is well known. It’s called “theocracy”.
Taking all that you mention, and a whole lot more of the current day happenings, I don’t know if we are in the biblical “end times” or not, but we are certainly in the end times of western civilization as we have come to know it.
The US Forest Service has joined the climate cult. At one of their research stations, Hubbard Brook in New Hampshire, where they’ve done soil and stream research for decades- in the past, if nitrate levels were high in the water, they’d blame it on clear cutting. Now they blame it on …. drum roll…. climate change! And to help them draw that conclusion- they use machine learning and…. modeling!
Ah, but you see, climate change is the root cause of everything. If a house explodes because of a gas leak, why it’s due to not having a new heat pump to help combat climate change! If a drunk driver causes a multi-car pile-up on a motorway, it’s due to depression caused by… you guessed it, climate change! If Cthulhu rises from the depths and destroys Manhattan, it’s because warmer waters woke him up due to… once again… climate change!
Thanks to the plethora of pretend scientists pushing papers past peer-pal review so long as they have a tagline in them along the lines of, climate change will make this worse, there is likely a paper that can be pointed to for any imaginable “caused by climate change” scenario. I remember there used to be a site with a list of things caused by climate change along with links to the papers, but it seems that has gone the way of the dodo and is now only available on the internet archive –
Kamala Harris has expounded her principal economic policies.
It consists of,
making housing less affordable (as per UK and Australian subsidies have already proved)
Price controls over supermarket prices – advice that her Jamaican father promoted that effectively led to increased starvation in Jamaica
copied JD Vance’s suggestion to offer Tax discounts to Parents (especially new Parents)
Offer to not tax tips – a clear copy of Trump’s previously announced intentions.
She plans to tackle inflation on Day One (of her influence) – which began on Jan 20th, 2021 – and that despite being the critical vote in the Senate for the Inflationary “inflation reduction act 2022′ ( which was actually Climate Change legislation) and also being the casting vote to increase tax scrutiny on any service tips.
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Anyone who votes for her ..,. is voting for a fraud, thief and liar.
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To the shame of the MSM that they are not politically pummeling her for these ‘plans’.
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No amount of ‘joy’ can overcome these fundamental contradictions
In preparation for mostly peaceful protests by leftists. I don’t recall any similar news around the RNC. Which one of these paints a better picture for the country?
The pundits kept claiming there would be 100,000 pro-terrorist protesters in the streets at the Democrat convention, but it didn’t look like they had that many Monday. More like 30,000. And not much violence.
It is reported that these protesters come from over 200 different political groups.
When Trump gets in office, the funders of these groups should be investigated. And then prosecuted.
“Offer to not tax tips – a clear copy of Trump’s previously announced intentions.”
The Democrats have been criticized for stealing Trump’s intention to stop taxing tips, but I think it may help them more than hurt them.
Stopping the taxing of tips is a very popular idea. The Democrats realized this after Trump announced it, and decided to jump on board, because there are voters in places like Las Vegas, in a critical Swing State, that might have voted for Trump just for this one issue, even though they might have voted Democrat otherwise, so the Democrats are smart to get involved, hoping this will give the voter a reason to vote Democrat since they get the tip taxbreak with either party.
It’s ironic that the Biden-Harris current budget calls for hiring 80, 000 new IRS agents, many of which were scheduled to crack down on people getting tips. Harris was more than happy to tax tips until Trump came out with his idea.
Kamala is a flip-flopper and a phony. She is for whatever her audience is for. Her only core principles are radical leftwing.
Stopping taxes on tips- MIGHT result in restaurants lowering wages- with the thought that if there is no tax on tips, the workers are getting a raise that way.
Most states have a minimum wage law which may include a smaller wage for employees earning tips. Where I live the employers are begging for staff and paying above minimum wage. I doubt if removing the tax would affect wages.
That depends on what kind of numbers the Bureau of Labor Statistics needs to report; because next month they will revise those numbers, and the next month, and the next month, and the next mont.
Trump will certainly change this if he is elected. He’ll stop hiring IRS agents and leave the money in the Treasury, or he will transfer the new hires to the Border Patrol. He has actually made statements to that effect.
Trump is going to leave a lot of the “Inflation Reduction Act” money in the Treasury if he is elected.
Trump’s current budget proposal would reduce the national debt by about $700 billion, while Harris’ current budget would add two TRILLION dollars to the national debt.
Adding two TRILLION more dollars to the economy will just cause inflation to go even higher.
Kamala also proposes about five TRILLION dollars in new taxes, or about seven TRILLION dollars if she managed to cancel the Trump tax cuts, which expire in 2025.
The Trump tax cuts and the low gasoline prices at the time, are what spurred the U.S. economy to its best performance in history, until the pandemic hit, and are one reason the U.S economy is so strong even after the pandemic.
Increasing taxes will have just the opposite effect. It’s as plain as the nose on your face. But radical Democrats don’t care. All they care about is spending money as a method of keeping themselves in political power. If the spending bankrupts the economy, that’s tough, as the Democrats have more important things to think about: How to keep themselves in power in perpetuity.
Aristotle said tyrants want to keep people poor because then the people are too busy trying to survive to try to plot against their tyrants.
Offer to not tax tips – a clear copy of Trump’s previously announced intentions.
Have you seen the news coverage of those two? When Trump announced it, the media attacked it as bad policy. When Harris announced it, they went nuts about how good it would be for service workers. Same outlet.
But the media isn’t propaganda for the left, so we’re told.
I heard this morning that the Media has given Kamala about 87 percent favorable coverage, and have given Trump about 87 percent negative coverage.
The U.S. Mainstream Media (with a few exceptions) are thoroughly in the tank for the Democrats. Describing them as the “Propaganda Organ of the Democrat Party” is 100 percent accurate.
You can’t trust a thing the Mainstream Media says about politics. They are for the Democrats and against the Republicans. They are not fair or balanced.
As such, the Mainstream Media is the most dangerous organization in the world when it comes to threatening the personal freedoms of all of us. Our system can’t function properly without the truth, and the Mainstream Media does not tell us the truth. They tell us political lies to try to pursuade us to vote for the wrong people, i.e., radical Democrats.
Radical Democrats will be the death of the United States if not reined in and rejected for political leadership. Nothing good comes from radical Democrat rule. We are living it right now.
I was a little off on those numbers. The correct figures are Kamala received 84 percent favorable coverage by the press, and Trump received 89 percent unfavorable coverage by the press.
The hallmark of Creative Collaborative Community™. That is, being “creative” through being, ahem, collaborative — and then lazy ghostwriting degenerates into one big blob of copypasta. Which is why they are being replaced with LLM. At least you can control what exactly AI is allowed to parrot.
strativarius
August 18, 2024 3:46 am
Two tier health care
On 6 August, the RCN [Royal College of Nursing] issued new guidelines granting medical professionals permission to refuse to treat patients whom they perceive to be racist.
And if the patient dies from lack of treatment, will those withholding treatment be held responsible and made to prove that the person was racist? Or, is ‘perception’ sufficient justification? The next pandemic will be insanity induced by ‘woke’ liberals.
Two weeks ago Geoff Sherrington commented on a Band 16 video I posted. He suggested a way to compare cloud coverage with the Band 16 images. This interested me, so I prepared two sets of time-matched hourly images from the GOES West geostationary satellite over the Pacific Ocean. These are for the full disk view, 7 days ending August 8, 2024. Each of the Google Drive folders linked below contains the 168 images plus a downloadable mp4 video of those same images. One folder is for Band 16, the other is for the Geocolor composite visualization.
I have also posted links to the plots which help for interpretation of the Band 16 visualizations.
Key take-away points:
The formation and dissipation of clouds is by far the most important factor in the retention of energy down here at the surface, i.e., the poorly named “greenhouse effect.”One should not expect the static radiative effect of incremental GHGs, especially that of CO2, to be discoverable for reliable attribution. The longwave emission to space in this band is observed as a huge array of highly active and highly variable emitter elements.Overturning circulation is readily evident on local, regional, and global scale. This drives what clouds do to suppress the longwave emission to space “just enough” for the dynamic self-regulation we experience down here.
I will post an example static image of the GOES West Band 16 and Geocolor visualizations at the end of this comment.
Links
Plot of radiance vs Band 16 “Brightness Temperature” colors.
Folder containing 168 time-ordered images from GOES West, full disk view of the planet, Band 16, hourly intervals, 7 days ending August 8, 2024 and a downloadable mp4 video of the same.
Folder containing 168 time-ordered images from GOES West, full disk view of the planet, GEOCOLOR, hourly intervals, 7 days ending August 8, 2024 and a downloadable mp4 video of the same. This shows daytime clouds very clearly.
Excellent stuff David. Your comment “The formation and dissipation of clouds is by far the most important factor in the retention of energy down here at the surface” is especially relevant.
Clouds are shutters that control the heat escape through the atmospheric window to outer space, 8-14 microns, +90 C to -65 C by Weins law, at which Earthly surfaces radiate their heat. Plus and primarily they are also reflectors by their whiteness of up to 50% of incoming solar, with low clouds being the more effective at keeping the surface cooler.
Your video shows the generation of these low level clouds very well.
Watching clouds come and go from satellites, does not tell you how these clouds were generated in the first place, and the origin of the temp spikes of the lower atmosphere, aka troposphere. See below excerpt.
El Niños, Hunga Tonga Volcanic Eruption, and the Tropics https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/hunga-tonga-volcanic-eruption https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/natural-forces-cause-periodic-global-warming
. PART I Impetus of El Niños
Near the Equator, a 9000m-deep plateau, near Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands, has major periodic, volcanic activity, that influences the world’s weather. The plateau covers about 150,000 square miles. It is:
1) One of the most geologically active regions on Earth
2) Home to the junction of five active fault systems, the second-largest, ocean-floor lava plateau on Earth,
3) Has hundreds of ocean floor volcanoes, and a large number of ocean-floor hydrothermal vents. See URLs https://www.plateclimatology.com/why-el-nios-originate-from-geologic-not-atmospheric-sources https://climatechangedispatch.com/geologist-how-geologic-factors-generate-el-nino-and-la-nina-events/
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The plateau has several tectonic plates slide over each other. There are hundreds of vents and lava eruptions.
The cause of sliding is mostly gravitational pull of the moon. The forces must be enormous to move around so much water every 24 hours.
Just as the oceans react with tides, the floating land masses react as well, but with much smaller amplitudes, except at weak points, such as the 9000-m deep plateau. The Pacific Rim has many weak points, with vents and eruptions, as does the mid-Atlantic rift.
The normal condition is with trade winds from east to west, so called La Nina, but every 3 to 7 years additional sliding occurs on the plateau. This causes additional venting and eruptions and additional heating of the already warmish water; the impetus of an El Niño, rated weak to very strong, whose development and consequences are well known. This warmish water rises, and with pre-vailing currents, arrives at Peru. That El Niño process takes several months to develop.
The upwelling weakens the trade winds , which changes air pressure and wind speeds, and push warm water toward the west coast of South America.
At higher latitudes, these changes in the tropics allow the Pacific Jet Stream, a narrow current of air flowing from west to east, to be pushed south and spread further east. The jet stream steers weather systems, thereby determining the weather patterns seen across a wide geographic area. . Water Vapor
In the Tropics, insolation and water and air temperatures are high, while the water travels, causing much evaporation and huge cloud formation.
As the water vapor and warm air rises, other air flows in to fill the “vacuum”. This causes winds, which ripple the surface, which causes greater rates of evaporation, which causes increased winds and waves, which causes even greater rates of evaporation, etc. . Hunga Tonga Underwater Eruption
Now comes along a rare event, the very large Hunga Tonga eruption on January 15, 2022. The free cloud looks enormous from a satellite. The opening of the underwater volcano is small, in comparison. Huge expansion and evaporation under water for days, like an underwater explosion; water in contact with 1000 F lava. The free cloud contained hot eruption gases and solids, and entrained warm air, warm water droplets and warm water vapor, a total of about 146 million metric ton of water droplets/WV/ice crystals into the atmosphere and lower stratosphere within a few days. The ice crystals refract additional sunlight, providing additional warming to the troposphere, which causes additional evaporation at high rates in the tropics, as does the WV.
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WV, abundant in the Tropics, is a strong green house gas (CO2, a trace gas, is a weak greenhouse gas), so the El Niño process (rated strong in this case) likely would gradually heat the lower atmosphere, aka troposphere, by say 0.5 C (measured from the start of 2023, blue line), as shown by NASA satellite measurements, which means the troposphere can hold additional WV.
The Hunga Tonga eruption likely would add another 0.5 C (measured from the start of 2023, blue line), which means the troposphere can hold even more additional WV.
The total temperature increase, due to the two events, was about 1.0 C, which enabled the atmosphere to hold 7% more WV, or about 0.07 x 3984 = 278.9 ppm more, which is 278.9/0.0458 = 6089 times greater than the rapid 0.0458 ppm increase due to the 146 million metric ton WV of the Hunga Tonga eruption. See below calculations
It required 2009 EJ to evaporate that much WV over a period of at least one year
Thanks for your thoughts on this. Recently I have been leaning towards a similar conclusion for the origin of the El Niños. Two lines of evidence are the episodic nature of the El Niños, similar to the behavior of volcanic eruptions, and a cross-section or temperature profile of the Pacific. In the profile, there were blobs of warm water, with thin tails at the bottom, reminiscent of the behavior of a ‘Lava Lamp,’ popular in the ’70s. The warm water behaved as I would expect from a transient heating, with the warm water rising slowly and leaving a trail behind. In an inverse manner, the broad, warm surface water off the coast of South America is difficult to explain as being heated by the atmosphere and then necking down as the water moves westward. It seems to me that it is more likely that it starts narrow in the west and spreads out by diffusion as it travels east.
The El Nino onset, starting near the equator, in the western Pacific, has to be strong enough to overcome the prevailing La Nina conditions
The periodic peaks of El Ninos coincide with the temp spikes of the lower atmosphere, as measured by satellites.
A very strong El Nino likely causes spikes of 0.5 C, which enables the atmosphere to hold 3.5% more WV, which is nearly all generated in the Tropics, and then distributed elsewhere.
The El Niño and Hunga Tonga events were major natural driving forces that, along with many other forces, caused the troposphere temp to increase by about 1 C, which may well become a new equilibrium, with an associated regime of weather events.
The question is what major natural force, such as a temporary reduction of solar output, for how long, will set in motion a process to reduce the temperature by 1 C to get back to the prior equilibrium?
David D,
Thank you for this – quite some work involved.
I have only just seen your effort at a sleepless half hour after midnight so will look forward to an interesting read tomorrow.
(I am in an undiagnosed illness that started May 10, otherwise I would have tried to do this match with cloud myself.). Geoff S
Thanks for your reply, Geoff. I hope you feel better soon. It was not as much effort as you might think, as I use an editable script in Linux to download the series of images.
the GHE can be whatever you want it to be. But it has no control over Earth’s energy balance, which is fundamentally under thermostatic control by virtue of the phases of water in the atmosphere and on the surface.
This is what your observations and many others clearly demonstrate.
“But it has no control over Earth’s energy balance, which is fundamentally under thermostatic control by virtue of the phases of water in the atmosphere and on the surface.” Agreed, as the phase changes enable powerful dynamic self-regulation.
David, these images and videos are interesting, but it’s hard to figure what is going on fully because,…well so much is going on. For example, while this appears to image the ground surface where there are no clouds, you see the limb of the Earth always looks cold no matter the state of the sky. The reason is the emission path is very long near the limb. Thus, angle of view is a confounding factor. I do note that highest temperatures on the ground in the west where I live is between 18Z and 20Z, just what actually occurs. And there is a high pressure system over the west associated with our summer monsoon which you can see in the cloud circulation.
The trouble is by the time I get around to figuring things out enough to ask questions or make suggestions this thread will have gone cold. What we could use here is some sort of extended chat.
Hi Kevin. Are you on X? What is your @name? I am @DavidDibbell
In a nutshell, “what is going on” is dynamic self-regulation in near-real-time and relatively high resolution.
The “temperature” at the surface is not the point of the Band 16 images, although the clear-sky rise and decay of outgoing IR is important to grasp (e.g. your “ballistic transport” description of it). We see a scene of highly active emitter elements and highly variable longwave radiation output that makes it to space. This corrects the misconception of the atmosphere as a passive radiative insulating layer. Clouds and motion; overturning circulations at local to global scale.
Connect the dots to the other concept I have been posting about – energy conversion. Read the full description at this video. https://youtu.be/hDurP-4gVrY
I’m not on X. But your brief description gives me an idea of what you are thinking. Yes, much like my point that the upper boundary condition for radiative transport actually begins at the ground (ballistic transport) with other fractions of the total at different heights in different places and times. Thanks for your reply.
Richard Greene
August 18, 2024 3:56 am
Calling for a Nut Zero demonstration project could be useful.
It reminds people there were no honest demonstration projects.
But such a demand could revive publicity for prior, biased in favor or wind and solar projects, that were complete failures … but were spun by the leftist media as successes.
A demonstration project approach has several other problems besides being a waste of money:
(1) Calling for a project implies the grid engineers are too dumb to calculate that battery capacity goals / funding will not even be close to enough to prevent blackouts. This is not a close call.
(2) A demonstration project is a strategy to delay a decision. Like an investigation of a crime delays an indictment. The leftists will invoke the nonsense precautionary principle (do what we say even if we are wrong) because there is no time to waste.
“Our demonstration project is being done to prove Nut Zero concept. It will be done in a few years and we will need to collect data for a few more years.”
Whatever happens, we will declare the results to be a success. … Meanwhile, “Nut Zero spending and construction must continue because we can’t afford a delay”.
I suggested the Island of Alderney, the population and energy demands are small enough that it can be done quickly, and relatively cheaply, and thus produce results quickly, plus they already have the diesel generators in place for when it all goes to s***.
“But such a demand could revive publicity for prior, biased in favor or wind and solar projects, that were complete failures … but were spun by the leftist media as successes.”
“Calling for a project implies the grid engineers are too dumb”
I think this is where a Demonstration Project would run up against resistance from the Climate Alarmists. They would say they are already running a successful Net Zero operation, and besides, there is no time to waste when saving the world from CO2.
I think Demonstation Projects are out. Now we are just waiting to see which one of the Climate Alarmist Crash-test-dummies are going to collapse first.
Interesting, for sure…as a heat transfer engineer, I found this comment interesting:
“Calm or light winds at night allow the Stevenson screen to cool, making the minimum temperature it records lower than that of the aspirated thermometer.
If it was just air temperature by conduction involved in the reading (for overnight cooling), the aspirated sensor should read cooler at any given time increment, so their comment indicates the possibility of the aspirated air being warmed by the aspirator motor in some situations, or more likely the sensor in the Stevenson screen was more susceptible to being cooled by radiative effects of clear, cold, outer space sky than an aspirated sensor, on those cloudless sky occasions…
Tom,
Shame that the Con article with all this new data from 2 shelters fails to opine which one, if any, gives the most accurate measurement and also avoids the question of whether both are unfit for purpose.
I call them unfit for estimation of local temperatures of the type that go into regional, national and global averages. You just have to look at the huge adjustments like ACORN-SAT that curators like BOM apply before use. Geoff S
But then, what could affect it?
It may well be that nothing could — that is, power is above reason. However many fingers the Party says there are, Mr. O’Brien! And if the Pope says that black is white and white is black, a good Jesuit repeats without even slightest hesitation.
Over the past year, on the other hand, the government’s progress in renewable energy has quickened. As of June 2024, Goldman Sachs Research identified around 11 GW of solar photovoltaic capacity in the execution pipeline, in addition to 16.7GW in solar / wind capacity in planning stages. The Saudi government has raised its solar energy target for 2030 from 58.7 GW to 100-130 GW.
The main element of the con job that is the “clean energy” bullshit is always promoting it as “CAPACITY”, knowing full well that wind & solar will be struggling to actually deliver 20% of the mW claimed in the propaganda.
At the end of 2023 solar accounted for 20.9% of China’s installed electricity capacity but it only supplied 3% of China’s electricity generation during that year. An awful lot of solar was doing nothing but sitting around.
From the link: “There is this prevailing narrative – and a lot of it is being pushed by the fossil fuel industry and their enablers – that climate action is too difficult, it’s too expensive,” he said. “It is absolutely critical that leaders, and all of us, push back and explain to people the value of climate action, but also the consequences of climate inaction.”
I read the whole article. There’s not one bit of proof that the fossil fuel industry is doing anything they claim the industry is doing.
This is just another of the many unsubstantiated assertions connected with Climate Alarmist propaganda.
Some people are waking up to reality. That is what is causing this increasing lack of faith in windmills and solar. The problems with using them are becoming more obvious every day. The fossil fuel industry has nothing to do with it. If someone disagrees, then they should provide a little evidence that the fossil fuel industry is running a disinformation campaign.
Only a quarter of Saudi Arabia’s $1 trillion capex plan will go into oil
Well of course. There’s no point in spending more money on more oil wells when you’re well on the downward slope of recoverable reserves.
After another year of oil production, the Ghawar field, the largest conventional oil field in the world, has produced roughly 86 Gigabarrels (Gb) of oil. The EUR of Ghawar is on the order of 110-120 Gb. That means that Ghawar has probably produced over 70% of its ultimate recoverable oil.
A situation similar to the Ghawar field exists for the Safaniya, Abqaiq, and Shaybah fields. Unfortunately Saudi Arabia and the other Middle East OPEC nations don’t provide detailed oil field data to allow oil analysts to assess their supply situations like countries such as Norway and the United Kingdom do.
Saudi Arabia can no doubt bring on some smaller fields but that would only hold off the inevitable for a short time. Saudi Arabia is also not the only Middle East OPEC nation that has depletion problems with major fields.
I have yet to see any working proof-of-concept, though, for all your faith. Even one small town, say 10,000 people and all the businesses, 100% run by renewables 24/7 – provably so, as in no interconnections to a stable external grid.
With the amount of money being spent, that shouldn’t be too hard to do. Prove the technology actually works.
time of use rates for electricity. this has been the case here in michigan for a few years. someone mentioned a pilot program to test the viability of solar, wind and batteries. i say the test is already under way. utilities in michigan and now in california are desperate to try and delay the test results (rolling mid day blackouts). they will use kinder gentler phrases like load shedding.
it truly is sad what is happening. graft, greed and corruption have been a part of some large corporations for ever. not much we can do about that. but now government has gone full frontal nudity, partnering in the corruption. they don’t even hide from it anymore. there is a term for that, you know, when government and business/corporate entities join together, that term…that term…its right on the tip of my tung, somebody help me out….
“Enshittification” has recently been added to the lexicon of common descriptors….usually for internet services and software, but let’s use it for electricity too.
An open thread.. very nice, I wanted to share this chatPG, …
Revised Consideration of the Question: “Is the Recent Global Warming Man-Made?”
Key Facts:
Increase in Greenhouse Gases:
Measured Increase in CO2: Atmospheric CO2 has increased from pre-industrial levels of around 280 ppm to over 415 ppm today, primarily due to human activities such as burning fossil fuels, industrial processes, and deforestation.
Temperature Rise:
Observed Global Warming: There has been an observed increase in global average temperatures of approximately 1.1°C since the late 19th century, which coincides with the period of increased greenhouse gas emissions.
Uncertainties in Climate Models:
Model Variability (CMIP5 vs. CMIP6): Climate models (CMIP5 vs. CMIP6) show significant differences in projected outcomes due to improvements in understanding, particularly in cloud dynamics. These discrepancies highlight that climate models have uncertainties, and their precision is still evolving, leading to challenges in conclusively attributing the observed warming to specific causes.
25% Uncertainty Change: The change in uncertainty between CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, particularly due to better cloud characterization, indicates that models are not fully precise and can differ significantly in their predictions.
Natural Climate Factors:
Oceanic Cycles and “Winter Gatekeeper” Theory: The “Winter Gatekeeper” theory and other natural climate variability factors, such as oceanic and atmospheric patterns, suggest that natural processes could play a significant role in observed climate trends. These natural cycles might explain some or even a significant portion of the recent warming.
Solar and Volcanic Activity: While these natural factors do affect the climate, their contributions to the recent warming trend are considered smaller relative to the impact of increased greenhouse gases. However, the exact contribution remains uncertain.
Paleoclimate Studies:
Selection Bias and “P-hacking” Concerns: Paleoclimate data, which relies on proxies like ice cores and tree rings, may be affected by selection bias (“p-hacking”), where data that fits preconceived notions are more likely to be highlighted. This introduces uncertainties in the historical comparison between natural climate variability and current warming trends.
Conclusion:
Given the facts:
Yes, there is strong evidence that human activities have contributed significantly to the recent increase in global temperatures through the release of greenhouse gases.
However, uncertainties in climate models, including a roughly 25% change in uncertainty due to better cloud characterization between CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, and the influence of natural climate factors like ocean cycles and potential data selection biases in paleoclimate studies, mean that attributing the recent warming exclusively to human activities remains complex.
Therefore, while the evidence supports a significant anthropogenic role, the precise extent of this role versus natural factors is not conclusively determinable with the current level of uncertainty in models and data.
This approach better integrates the need to avoid generalizations and acknowledges the complexities and uncertainties involved, leading to a more precise and fact-based conclusion.
The IPCC (and similarly the chat bot) uses the words “uncertainty” and “uncertain” a lot, but without regard for what the words mean with regard to metrology. Real measurement uncertainty is routinely ignored.
Well one main often unconsidered source of uncertainty for proxy reconstructions is the selection bias “does this proxy represent the local temperature”, for current values it would be the coverage and data quality (location of the sensor ID a main point) and in models limited input data and incomplete mathematical description and calculation power (grid size)
Yes, what I regularly refer to as the appalling quality of the probity and provenance of temperatures and other recorded measurements data, rendering these inputs totally unfit for scientific research.
That is just the kind of word salad generative AI produces. It bears superficial resemblance to what an answer to that question should look like, but it doesn’t embody any reasoning. Do not be enchanted by its fluency.
Well, yes chatpg has a typical way of writing, but my point was that we have a robot concersing that the man-made global warming hypothesis might be wrong,
we have a robot [conceding] that the man-made global warming hypothesis might be wrong
No, it just isn’t. It is generating a stream of words that can be parsed, and no more. There is zero reasoning involved. It is strictly concerned with generating text that looks like an answer would look.
I notice Neil deGrasse Tyson is claiming that DNA doesn’t determine whether a person is male or female.
Quite why we are supposed to care what he thinks about anything other than astrophysics is not explained, but let’s not linger over that puzzle. Let’s wonder what’s going on in his head and the head of anyone else who spouts this nonsense.
I’ll go first. I suspect (with no evidence, only intuition) he sees this issue a re-litigation of gay emancipation. We already had that conversation and decided gay is OK. I am on-board with that. I am the straightest person you’ll meet but I am certain that people attracted to the same sex experience that attraction exactly the way I experience attraction to the opposite sex. It is authentic and knowable to them.
But thinking you know how it feels to be a horse, or a bat, or the other sex is absurd. It is not possible even to know how it feels to be your own sex; all you know is how you feel. Do I feel male? I don’t know. I can’t know. In fact I bet there are many men who feel very differently from me who still count themselves men. (I write of men here because I claim I am one; I assume the same applies for women.)
I mention this here only because we are also invited to admire his views on climate science, another subject well outside his area of expertise but another where he feels his pronouncements are valuable.
When a post here is flagged as “possible spam”, whose rules are being triggered? Is it a general WordPress rule or WUWT rule? And is there anyone moderating such posts in a reasonably timely fashion? (I ask because it’s been a few hours now…)
In my experience the rules are unknowable and constantly changing. It is only partially under the control of WUWT but the web site would be unworkable without the filters. And yes the moderators generally do a praiseworthy job of rescuing posts from automated purgatory.
On a previous post, someone had said that they’d like to see an “Open Thread” everyday.
Once a week is fine with me. (At most twice a week.)
There are lots of great post put up everyday. An “Open Thread” day would detract from them.
(I enjoyed connecting with people willing to help with a problem I had fixing an old Lionel Trains accessory on an Open Thread. Would we really want to see such “sidings” pop up everyday?)
PS The Lionel thing here was a last resort.
Century 21 Blasphemy laws
“”The court heard that during the protest, Hoban was seen imitating the way Muslims pray in “order to mock their religion” and had made supposed slurs about Allah.
…
Recorder of Leeds, Judge Guy Kearl KC told Hoban his conduct and that of his group “was designed to stir up hatred.”
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2024/08/17/stirring-up-hatred-uk-man-jailed-after-mocking-muslims-at-non-violent-anti-migration-protest/
You can say whatever you like about the Christian trinity or faith. And get applauded for it.
“”Drag queens stun at Opening Ceremony with ‘Last Supper’ exhibition””
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/paris-2024-summer-olympics/drag-queens-paris-opening-ceremony/5637682/
And then, there is the one [true] faith… to bring them all and in the darkness bind them…
“”The chair of a leading Australian nuclear advocacy group has called concerns that carbon dioxide emissions are driving a climate crisis an “irrational fear of a trace gas which is plant food” and has rejected links between worsening extreme weather and global heating.
…
David Karoly, a councillor at the Climate Council and a respected atmospheric scientist who has been studying the affects of CO2 on the climate since the late 1980s, said Paterson’s statements were typical of those from climate science deniers.
…
Dr John Cook, an expert on climate change misinformation at the University of Melbourne, said Paterson was “regurgitating arguments” across a range of “thoroughly debunked talking points”.””
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/17/dr-adi-paterson-nuclear-for-australia-climate-change
Well, at least the esteemed 6th form rag got one thing right; Cook most certainly is an expert on [climate change] misinformation, well 97% of the time he is.
The UK is drifting, has drifted actually, into a Chinese or Soviet approach to speech and publication, where legislation is phrased so vaguely that almost anything inconvenient that someone objects to can fall under it. The concept of ‘legal but harmful’ speech, which pending legislation will target is one example. The concept of ‘stirring up hatred’ is another. As is the concept, employed by many police forces, of recordable non-hate crime incidents. In this policy, you say something which offends someone who complains, the police come round and talk to you, you have broken no law, but the incident is recorded as a ‘non-hate crime incident’.
Harry Miller’s case:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-59727118
was a well known example of this, struck down by the courts, but the trend goes on and the new Government’s latest proposals in reaction to posts on social media in connexion with the recent rioting continues a trend which has been evident over both Labour and Conservative governments in recent decades.
It is correct that this can be used to bring back a law of blasphemy by the back door. There is a substantial academic literature which argues that the traditional historical account of the growth of Islam is incorrect – Patricia Krone, following John Wansbroughwas one well known scholar publishing to this effect. Citing or quoting from it could easily become ‘Islamophobia’, just as citing or quoting Kathleen Stock could easily become Transphobia, hate speech, stirring up hatred…
It can and probably will also be used to suppress criticism of policies of all kinds. Notably criticism of policies on gender (as Scotland has tried to do). Can it be long before asserting that Ed Miliband’s energy policies are pointless, impossible and unaffordable is classed as ‘legal but harmful’ and merits a call from the police?
This is about saving the planet and future generations, after all.
It’s no accident that vagueness has become “policy”. Labour were more than vague throughout the election campaign, and now it’s no different. Even they don’t seem to know what they will do next.
Fascism corner
My favourite recent fun fact?
Only one party has had a councillor arrested and charged for inciting murder. Can you guess which party?
“”councillor Ricky Jones has been arrested on suspicion of encouraging murder after comments at a London counter-protest.
Videos had emerged online reportedly showing Mr Jones telling a crowd in Walthamstow that far right demonstrators needed to have their throats cut.””
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz074vyvjzvo
Yes, it was the kind, respectful, tolerant party.
And he was thrown out of the Labour Party.
However, the people chanting the Tory Party election slogan “Stop The Boats” while setting fire to buildings with children inside… were not thrown out of the Tory Party.
In fact, the Tory Party leadership who whipped up the hatred with that slogan have not even apologised.
However, the people chanting the Tory Party election slogan “Stop The Boats” while setting fire to buildings with children inside… were not thrown out of the Tory Party.
Where are there any reports that any of the rioters are members of the Conservative Party?
I’m sure that if any are they will be thrown out.
If they wee quoting Das Kapital would you doubt they were Communists?
If they were quoting Mein Kampf would you doubt they were Nazis?
If they were quoting Labour slogans would you doubt they were Labour?
But you think the Tory party slogans are not a sign of being Tories.
With that logic as a defence, the Tories still need to apologise.
Of course, MC. We all know that true communism has never been tried.
You say they ‘were not thrown out of the Tory Party‘. That, it appears, is because they were not in it to start with, and therefore could not be thrown out of it!
They may have echoed the slogan, but they were not members. Whereas the Labour Party person you referred to, who was expelled, was a member of that party. Different, do you see that its different?
Your reply is an interesting example of the UK trend. ‘Stop the boats’ may be something that people object to, but in no reasonable country with a tradition of free speech would it be regarded as an incitement to hatred. Its simply the expression of a point of view on illegal immigration.
We may think that the issue of migration to the UK should be addressed in a more compassionate way, more helpful to the migrants, than this slogan implies, which basically is saying stop them and don’t worry about it. But to propose simply stopping is not to incite hatred or violence to them. In the US such speech would definitely be covered by the 1st Amendment.
Another interesting aspect of this in the UK is that the chants of ‘from the river to the sea’, and the groups driving through North London’s Jewish areas chanting anti-Semitic slogans, have not been treated as inciting hatred, though arguably they are much more clearly that than ‘stop the boats’.
One must also not forget that the ones in the boats are acting illegally. There are legitimate ways for genuine refugees to enter the country.
But the slogan was linked to the Tory policy of rounding people up and shipping them to a country that is so unsafe, the mere threat of doing it was deemed a deterrent. And that country was also so unsafe, no reasonable country could do it legally.
In fact, there were suggestions that we should join Russia as the only other country who would leave the European Court of Human Rights.
Speech calling for joining a militarist state in refusing people their human rights, is an incitement to hatred.
How can Free Speech be used as a defence for abandoning Magna Carta? Where does this Free Speech come from?
This is completely unbalanced, and its also disingenuous. You started out saying that the demonstrators were members of the Conservative Party, but had not been expelled. They apparently were not members, and you have dropped that false accusation.
You now move on to the suggestion that to advocate leaving the ECHR jurisdiction is an incitement to hatred, because Russia has refused to come under it. You claim that Russia is the only state to have left it.
However, the ECHR is confined to the 46 Council of Europe countries, and three countries, not being members of it, are not parties to it: Belarus, the Vatican and Russia.
There are 195 countries in the world today, so not to be one of the 45 members of the EHCR is actually not at all remarkable. Neither Canada nor the US are members of it either.
Whether Russia is a member or not is irrelevant and has no bearing on what you are trying to argue.
Speech objecting to illegal immigration is not incitement to hatred. Any more than speech objecting to any other form of law breaking is. And it is not abandoning Magna Carta either. It has nothing to do with Magna Carta. Or the Bill of Rights.
There is no human right to be an illegal immigrant, any more than there is to be a burglar.
Please wake up!
Untrue. I proved they were Tory Party supporters. They quoted Tory party slogans. However, I have not got their membership cards as I am not Tory Party central Office or a rioter. That burden of proof is beyond me. But you are clearly setting a ludicrously high bar.
Which was wrong, on my part. Greece also left after the far-right coup. Russia left after invading Ukraine. However, your suggesting we should follow another un-democratic state is still going to be opposed by those who support freedom and democrat. Why are you on the side of Russia and far-right coups?
The fact that the far-right government of Belarus never joined is not the winning argument you think it is, either.
The Vatican City has an interesting problem relating to women’s rights and their access to the top position of Pope. Irrelevant.
And then you discard Magna Carta and the principle of proportionality.
Thus calling for exile to a dangerous country at the cost of abandoning the rule of law (as the rule of law forbids it) and… back to where you started… setting fire to the buildings they live in with their children inside.
Finally, let me assure you, I am very awake to the threat posed by violent extremists and their armchair supporters.
I proved they were Tory Party supporters. They quoted Tory party slogans.
No, you did not prove they were Tory Party supporters. Or Reform supporters. Or supporters of any party, other than the Hooligan Tendency.
They picked up on a slogan which has been used by the Conservative Party, but has become quite a widespread one as it summarizes what some people think and is easily chanted and posted.
I am very awake to the threat posed by violent extremists and their armchair supporters.
The rioting was criminal, the attacks on the police deplorable. There is no excuse for them. There is also no excuse for trying to smear the Conservative Party by fake associations with them. The same thing is done by the right, attempting to stain the mass of normal law abiding Muslims in the country with the stigma of being Islamist nutters.
There is a legitimate point of view that illegal migration should be stopped, and that legal migration should be greatly diminished, and there is no use trying to tar those quite legitimate points of view on national policy with slogans like racism, fascism, xxphobia. It would be more to the point to debate and settle some rational, evidence based policy on the matters.
“the growth of Islam”
by means of the scimitar!
Because the world started in ⅩⅨ century (or was it ⅩⅩ?), Plymouth colony was started by agents of Brezhnev with a Time Machine™, and what’s “constructive treason”? 😀
“Dr John Cook, an expert on climate change misinformation”
You can say that again!
Cook *is* an expert on climate change misinformation. He creates it all the time.
When I read your comment about Cook, my first reaction was “How could anyone with a technical PhD be so misinformed about CO2 and energy?” I looked up his education, and it stated his “PhD is in Cognitive Science at the University of Western Australia in 2016″. Looking at the degree pages, nothing was mentioned about basic physics at all. It seems to me to be more like an “Introduction to effective Propaganda” education, though they do brag of a “rich history of helping students take a leading role in shaping the future. It appears that your comment may be well founded.
If Jill Biden can be a doctor…
Good, but you overcomplicate a very simple issue.
Harvard was and is a theological institution at its core. We can reasonably expect the same to be true of its clones. And expect the University of Western Australia to be such a clone — because, well, how many are not its clones by now?
The kind of power structures where theologists and preachers get to define the policy and play Ministry of Truth in the matters they know very little about is well known. It’s called “theocracy”.
Taking all that you mention, and a whole lot more of the current day happenings, I don’t know if we are in the biblical “end times” or not, but we are certainly in the end times of western civilization as we have come to know it.
Lol.
Cook is an expert liar.
Presidents of the United States promote his “97 percent” lie in public.
Double LOL!
«’Cause you only get respect when you’re kickin’ ass» © KMFDM
The US Forest Service has joined the climate cult. At one of their research stations, Hubbard Brook in New Hampshire, where they’ve done soil and stream research for decades- in the past, if nitrate levels were high in the water, they’d blame it on clear cutting. Now they blame it on …. drum roll…. climate change! And to help them draw that conclusion- they use machine learning and…. modeling!
https://research.fs.usda.gov/nrs/products/rooted-research/abrupt-increase-stream-water-nitrate-can-be-caused-multiple-climate
Ah, but you see, climate change is the root cause of everything. If a house explodes because of a gas leak, why it’s due to not having a new heat pump to help combat climate change! If a drunk driver causes a multi-car pile-up on a motorway, it’s due to depression caused by… you guessed it, climate change! If Cthulhu rises from the depths and destroys Manhattan, it’s because warmer waters woke him up due to… once again… climate change!
Thanks to the plethora of pretend scientists pushing papers past peer-pal review so long as they have a tagline in them along the lines of, climate change will make this worse, there is likely a paper that can be pointed to for any imaginable “caused by climate change” scenario. I remember there used to be a site with a list of things caused by climate change along with links to the papers, but it seems that has gone the way of the dodo and is now only available on the internet archive –
https://web.archive.org/web/20230714024142/https://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm
Kamala Harris has expounded her principal economic policies.
It consists of,
She plans to tackle inflation on Day One (of her influence) – which began on Jan 20th, 2021 – and that despite being the critical vote in the Senate for the Inflationary “inflation reduction act 2022′ ( which was actually Climate Change legislation) and also being the casting vote to increase tax scrutiny on any service tips.
.
Anyone who votes for her ..,. is voting for a fraud, thief and liar.
.
To the shame of the MSM that they are not politically pummeling her for these ‘plans’.
.
No amount of ‘joy’ can overcome these fundamental contradictions
She has yet to be questioned.
The US msm glosses over the fact that no vote was cast and no interview given.
It’s a coronation in all but name.
Most of the Mainstream Media in the United States are actually propaganda organs of the Democrat Party. Hiding Democrat flaws is part of their job.
And tomorrow the Demo-Kook Convention starts off in Chi Town, where businesses are already boarded-up in preparation.
businesses are already boarded-up in preparation.
In preparation for mostly peaceful protests by leftists. I don’t recall any similar news around the RNC. Which one of these paints a better picture for the country?
The pundits kept claiming there would be 100,000 pro-terrorist protesters in the streets at the Democrat convention, but it didn’t look like they had that many Monday. More like 30,000. And not much violence.
It is reported that these protesters come from over 200 different political groups.
When Trump gets in office, the funders of these groups should be investigated. And then prosecuted.
Day One for Kamala Harris was January 2021. “A loaf of bread costs 50% more today than before the pandemic. Ground beef is up almost 50%”, Harris said yesterday, as if she was never VP!
The Honest Climate Science and Energy Blog: Inflation Since Kamala Harris took office in January 2021:
“Offer to not tax tips – a clear copy of Trump’s previously announced intentions.”
The Democrats have been criticized for stealing Trump’s intention to stop taxing tips, but I think it may help them more than hurt them.
Stopping the taxing of tips is a very popular idea. The Democrats realized this after Trump announced it, and decided to jump on board, because there are voters in places like Las Vegas, in a critical Swing State, that might have voted for Trump just for this one issue, even though they might have voted Democrat otherwise, so the Democrats are smart to get involved, hoping this will give the voter a reason to vote Democrat since they get the tip taxbreak with either party.
It’s ironic that the Biden-Harris current budget calls for hiring 80, 000 new IRS agents, many of which were scheduled to crack down on people getting tips. Harris was more than happy to tax tips until Trump came out with his idea.
Kamala is a flip-flopper and a phony. She is for whatever her audience is for. Her only core principles are radical leftwing.
Stopping taxes on tips- MIGHT result in restaurants lowering wages- with the thought that if there is no tax on tips, the workers are getting a raise that way.
Everybody just working for “tips” will be the result of such a policy….
Most states have a minimum wage law which may include a smaller wage for employees earning tips. Where I live the employers are begging for staff and paying above minimum wage. I doubt if removing the tax would affect wages.
I agree with you.
wondering- -how many of the 80,000 addl. IRS agents have actually been hired- –
That depends on what kind of numbers the Bureau of Labor Statistics needs to report; because next month they will revise those numbers, and the next month, and the next month, and the next mont.
I’m not sure how many they have hired.
Trump will certainly change this if he is elected. He’ll stop hiring IRS agents and leave the money in the Treasury, or he will transfer the new hires to the Border Patrol. He has actually made statements to that effect.
Trump is going to leave a lot of the “Inflation Reduction Act” money in the Treasury if he is elected.
Trump’s current budget proposal would reduce the national debt by about $700 billion, while Harris’ current budget would add two TRILLION dollars to the national debt.
Adding two TRILLION more dollars to the economy will just cause inflation to go even higher.
Kamala also proposes about five TRILLION dollars in new taxes, or about seven TRILLION dollars if she managed to cancel the Trump tax cuts, which expire in 2025.
The Trump tax cuts and the low gasoline prices at the time, are what spurred the U.S. economy to its best performance in history, until the pandemic hit, and are one reason the U.S economy is so strong even after the pandemic.
Increasing taxes will have just the opposite effect. It’s as plain as the nose on your face. But radical Democrats don’t care. All they care about is spending money as a method of keeping themselves in political power. If the spending bankrupts the economy, that’s tough, as the Democrats have more important things to think about: How to keep themselves in power in perpetuity.
Aristotle said tyrants want to keep people poor because then the people are too busy trying to survive to try to plot against their tyrants.
Kamunism…
Offer to not tax tips – a clear copy of Trump’s previously announced intentions.
Have you seen the news coverage of those two? When Trump announced it, the media attacked it as bad policy. When Harris announced it, they went nuts about how good it would be for service workers. Same outlet.
But the media isn’t propaganda for the left, so we’re told.
I heard this morning that the Media has given Kamala about 87 percent favorable coverage, and have given Trump about 87 percent negative coverage.
The U.S. Mainstream Media (with a few exceptions) are thoroughly in the tank for the Democrats. Describing them as the “Propaganda Organ of the Democrat Party” is 100 percent accurate.
You can’t trust a thing the Mainstream Media says about politics. They are for the Democrats and against the Republicans. They are not fair or balanced.
As such, the Mainstream Media is the most dangerous organization in the world when it comes to threatening the personal freedoms of all of us. Our system can’t function properly without the truth, and the Mainstream Media does not tell us the truth. They tell us political lies to try to pursuade us to vote for the wrong people, i.e., radical Democrats.
Radical Democrats will be the death of the United States if not reined in and rejected for political leadership. Nothing good comes from radical Democrat rule. We are living it right now.
I was a little off on those numbers. The correct figures are Kamala received 84 percent favorable coverage by the press, and Trump received 89 percent unfavorable coverage by the press.
From the “Media Research Center”.
Stealing policy positions from Karl Marx and Donald Trump is a sure sign of bipolarity.
The hallmark of Creative Collaborative Community™. That is, being “creative” through being, ahem, collaborative — and then lazy ghostwriting degenerates into one big blob of copypasta. Which is why they are being replaced with LLM. At least you can control what exactly AI is allowed to parrot.
Two tier health care
On 6 August, the RCN [Royal College of Nursing] issued new guidelines granting medical professionals permission to refuse to treat patients whom they perceive to be racist.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2024/08/18/nurses-must-not-refuse-to-treat-racists/
Subject to a biased on the spot evaluation, of course.
Marching towards totalitarianism.
And if the patient dies from lack of treatment, will those withholding treatment be held responsible and made to prove that the person was racist? Or, is ‘perception’ sufficient justification? The next pandemic will be insanity induced by ‘woke’ liberals.
Europe will be in full revolution mode soon if they keep it up.
Two weeks ago Geoff Sherrington commented on a Band 16 video I posted. He suggested a way to compare cloud coverage with the Band 16 images. This interested me, so I prepared two sets of time-matched hourly images from the GOES West geostationary satellite over the Pacific Ocean. These are for the full disk view, 7 days ending August 8, 2024. Each of the Google Drive folders linked below contains the 168 images plus a downloadable mp4 video of those same images. One folder is for Band 16, the other is for the Geocolor composite visualization.
I have also posted links to the plots which help for interpretation of the Band 16 visualizations.
Key take-away points:
The formation and dissipation of clouds is by far the most important factor in the retention of energy down here at the surface, i.e., the poorly named “greenhouse effect.”One should not expect the static radiative effect of incremental GHGs, especially that of CO2, to be discoverable for reliable attribution. The longwave emission to space in this band is observed as a huge array of highly active and highly variable emitter elements.Overturning circulation is readily evident on local, regional, and global scale. This drives what clouds do to suppress the longwave emission to space “just enough” for the dynamic self-regulation we experience down here.
I will post an example static image of the GOES West Band 16 and Geocolor visualizations at the end of this comment.
Links
Plot of radiance vs Band 16 “Brightness Temperature” colors.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qy4QnSkaJZeLIeC4R7-600ZuctPEUwaz/view?usp=drive_link
Plot of radiance vs. wavelength showing the significance of Band 16 for 2XCO2
https://drive.google.com/file/d/175qnVngPPfZJKUPUH13u6t5wolTBl0qi/view?usp=drive_link
Folder containing 168 time-ordered images from GOES West, full disk view of the planet, Band 16, hourly intervals, 7 days ending August 8, 2024 and a downloadable mp4 video of the same.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1_Mty2hAiaukb1I2JQeaqr5MiN5Ep03qI?usp=drive_link
Folder containing 168 time-ordered images from GOES West, full disk view of the planet, GEOCOLOR, hourly intervals, 7 days ending August 8, 2024 and a downloadable mp4 video of the same. This shows daytime clouds very clearly.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1J6ucBBPJIxfOZJeJeGG3owEBcuvThqh5?usp=drive_link
Example image for Band 16:
Example image for Geocolor
Excellent stuff David. Your comment “The formation and dissipation of clouds is by far the most important factor in the retention of energy down here at the surface” is especially relevant.
Clouds are shutters that control the heat escape through the atmospheric window to outer space, 8-14 microns, +90 C to -65 C by Weins law, at which Earthly surfaces radiate their heat. Plus and primarily they are also reflectors by their whiteness of up to 50% of incoming solar, with low clouds being the more effective at keeping the surface cooler.
Your video shows the generation of these low level clouds very well.
Thank you for this reply. We can learn a lot by “watching” from space!
Watching clouds come and go from satellites, does not tell you how these clouds were generated in the first place, and the origin of the temp spikes of the lower atmosphere, aka troposphere. See below excerpt.
El Niños, Hunga Tonga Volcanic Eruption, and the Tropics
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/hunga-tonga-volcanic-eruption
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/natural-forces-cause-periodic-global-warming
.
PART I
Impetus of El Niños
Near the Equator, a 9000m-deep plateau, near Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands, has major periodic, volcanic activity, that influences the world’s weather. The plateau covers about 150,000 square miles. It is:
1) One of the most geologically active regions on Earth
2) Home to the junction of five active fault systems, the second-largest, ocean-floor lava plateau on Earth,
3) Has hundreds of ocean floor volcanoes, and a large number of ocean-floor hydrothermal vents. See URLs
https://www.plateclimatology.com/why-el-nios-originate-from-geologic-not-atmospheric-sources
https://climatechangedispatch.com/geologist-how-geologic-factors-generate-el-nino-and-la-nina-events/
.
The plateau has several tectonic plates slide over each other. There are hundreds of vents and lava eruptions.
The cause of sliding is mostly gravitational pull of the moon. The forces must be enormous to move around so much water every 24 hours.
Just as the oceans react with tides, the floating land masses react as well, but with much smaller amplitudes, except at weak points, such as the 9000-m deep plateau. The Pacific Rim has many weak points, with vents and eruptions, as does the mid-Atlantic rift.
The normal condition is with trade winds from east to west, so called La Nina, but every 3 to 7 years additional sliding occurs on the plateau. This causes additional venting and eruptions and additional heating of the already warmish water; the impetus of an El Niño, rated weak to very strong, whose development and consequences are well known. This warmish water rises, and with pre-vailing currents, arrives at Peru. That El Niño process takes several months to develop.
The upwelling weakens the trade winds , which changes air pressure and wind speeds, and push warm water toward the west coast of South America.
At higher latitudes, these changes in the tropics allow the Pacific Jet Stream, a narrow current of air flowing from west to east, to be pushed south and spread further east. The jet stream steers weather systems, thereby determining the weather patterns seen across a wide geographic area.
.
Water Vapor
In the Tropics, insolation and water and air temperatures are high, while the water travels, causing much evaporation and huge cloud formation.
As the water vapor and warm air rises, other air flows in to fill the “vacuum”. This causes winds, which ripple the surface, which causes greater rates of evaporation, which causes increased winds and waves, which causes even greater rates of evaporation, etc.
.
Hunga Tonga Underwater Eruption
Now comes along a rare event, the very large Hunga Tonga eruption on January 15, 2022. The free cloud looks enormous from a satellite. The opening of the underwater volcano is small, in comparison. Huge expansion and evaporation under water for days, like an underwater explosion; water in contact with 1000 F lava. The free cloud contained hot eruption gases and solids, and entrained warm air, warm water droplets and warm water vapor, a total of about 146 million metric ton of water droplets/WV/ice crystals into the atmosphere and lower stratosphere within a few days. The ice crystals refract additional sunlight, providing additional warming to the troposphere, which causes additional evaporation at high rates in the tropics, as does the WV.
.
WV, abundant in the Tropics, is a strong green house gas (CO2, a trace gas, is a weak greenhouse gas), so the El Niño process (rated strong in this case) likely would gradually heat the lower atmosphere, aka troposphere, by say 0.5 C (measured from the start of 2023, blue line), as shown by NASA satellite measurements, which means the troposphere can hold additional WV.
The Hunga Tonga eruption likely would add another 0.5 C (measured from the start of 2023, blue line), which means the troposphere can hold even more additional WV.
The total temperature increase, due to the two events, was about 1.0 C, which enabled the atmosphere to hold 7% more WV, or about 0.07 x 3984 = 278.9 ppm more, which is 278.9/0.0458 = 6089 times greater than the rapid 0.0458 ppm increase due to the 146 million metric ton WV of the Hunga Tonga eruption. See below calculations
It required 2009 EJ to evaporate that much WV over a period of at least one year
Thanks for your thoughts on this. Recently I have been leaning towards a similar conclusion for the origin of the El Niños. Two lines of evidence are the episodic nature of the El Niños, similar to the behavior of volcanic eruptions, and a cross-section or temperature profile of the Pacific. In the profile, there were blobs of warm water, with thin tails at the bottom, reminiscent of the behavior of a ‘Lava Lamp,’ popular in the ’70s. The warm water behaved as I would expect from a transient heating, with the warm water rising slowly and leaving a trail behind. In an inverse manner, the broad, warm surface water off the coast of South America is difficult to explain as being heated by the atmosphere and then necking down as the water moves westward. It seems to me that it is more likely that it starts narrow in the west and spreads out by diffusion as it travels east.
The El Nino onset, starting near the equator, in the western Pacific, has to be strong enough to overcome the prevailing La Nina conditions
The periodic peaks of El Ninos coincide with the temp spikes of the lower atmosphere, as measured by satellites.
A very strong El Nino likely causes spikes of 0.5 C, which enables the atmosphere to hold 3.5% more WV, which is nearly all generated in the Tropics, and then distributed elsewhere.
The El Niño and Hunga Tonga events were major natural driving forces that, along with many other forces, caused the troposphere temp to increase by about 1 C, which may well become a new equilibrium, with an associated regime of weather events.
The question is what major natural force, such as a temporary reduction of solar output, for how long, will set in motion a process to reduce the temperature by 1 C to get back to the prior equilibrium?
David D,
Thank you for this – quite some work involved.
I have only just seen your effort at a sleepless half hour after midnight so will look forward to an interesting read tomorrow.
(I am in an undiagnosed illness that started May 10, otherwise I would have tried to do this match with cloud myself.). Geoff S
Thanks for your reply, Geoff. I hope you feel better soon. It was not as much effort as you might think, as I use an editable script in Linux to download the series of images.
the GHE can be whatever you want it to be. But it has no control over Earth’s energy balance, which is fundamentally under thermostatic control by virtue of the phases of water in the atmosphere and on the surface.
This is what your observations and many others clearly demonstrate.
“But it has no control over Earth’s energy balance, which is fundamentally under thermostatic control by virtue of the phases of water in the atmosphere and on the surface.” Agreed, as the phase changes enable powerful dynamic self-regulation.
David, these images and videos are interesting, but it’s hard to figure what is going on fully because,…well so much is going on. For example, while this appears to image the ground surface where there are no clouds, you see the limb of the Earth always looks cold no matter the state of the sky. The reason is the emission path is very long near the limb. Thus, angle of view is a confounding factor. I do note that highest temperatures on the ground in the west where I live is between 18Z and 20Z, just what actually occurs. And there is a high pressure system over the west associated with our summer monsoon which you can see in the cloud circulation.
The trouble is by the time I get around to figuring things out enough to ask questions or make suggestions this thread will have gone cold. What we could use here is some sort of extended chat.
Hi Kevin. Are you on X? What is your @name? I am @DavidDibbell
In a nutshell, “what is going on” is dynamic self-regulation in near-real-time and relatively high resolution.
The “temperature” at the surface is not the point of the Band 16 images, although the clear-sky rise and decay of outgoing IR is important to grasp (e.g. your “ballistic transport” description of it). We see a scene of highly active emitter elements and highly variable longwave radiation output that makes it to space. This corrects the misconception of the atmosphere as a passive radiative insulating layer. Clouds and motion; overturning circulations at local to global scale.
Connect the dots to the other concept I have been posting about – energy conversion. Read the full description at this video. https://youtu.be/hDurP-4gVrY
I’m not on X. But your brief description gives me an idea of what you are thinking. Yes, much like my point that the upper boundary condition for radiative transport actually begins at the ground (ballistic transport) with other fractions of the total at different heights in different places and times. Thanks for your reply.
Calling for a Nut Zero demonstration project could be useful.
It reminds people there were no honest demonstration projects.
But such a demand could revive publicity for prior, biased in favor or wind and solar projects, that were complete failures … but were spun by the leftist media as successes.
A demonstration project approach has several other problems besides being a waste of money:
(1) Calling for a project implies the grid engineers are too dumb to calculate that battery capacity goals / funding will not even be close to enough to prevent blackouts. This is not a close call.
(2) A demonstration project is a strategy to delay a decision. Like an investigation of a crime delays an indictment. The leftists will invoke the nonsense precautionary principle (do what we say even if we are wrong) because there is no time to waste.
“Our demonstration project is being done to prove Nut Zero concept. It will be done in a few years and we will need to collect data for a few more years.”
Whatever happens, we will declare the results to be a success. … Meanwhile, “Nut Zero spending and construction must continue because we can’t afford a delay”.
Debate: Is A Demonstration Project Really Necessary? — Manhattan Contrarian
I suggested the Island of Alderney, the population and energy demands are small enough that it can be done quickly, and relatively cheaply, and thus produce results quickly, plus they already have the diesel generators in place for when it all goes to s***.
“But such a demand could revive publicity for prior, biased in favor or wind and solar projects, that were complete failures … but were spun by the leftist media as successes.”
They could be unspun, no?
“Calling for a project implies the grid engineers are too dumb”
I think this is where a Demonstration Project would run up against resistance from the Climate Alarmists. They would say they are already running a successful Net Zero operation, and besides, there is no time to waste when saving the world from CO2.
I think Demonstation Projects are out. Now we are just waiting to see which one of the Climate Alarmist Crash-test-dummies are going to collapse first.
Nothing whatsoever to worry about with a change of weather stations here folks-
Victorian technology for measuring the weather is still remarkably accurate – new research (theconversation.com)
That was an interesting article.
Interesting, for sure…as a heat transfer engineer, I found this comment interesting:
“Calm or light winds at night allow the Stevenson screen to cool, making the minimum temperature it records lower than that of the aspirated thermometer.
If it was just air temperature by conduction involved in the reading (for overnight cooling), the aspirated sensor should read cooler at any given time increment, so their comment indicates the possibility of the aspirated air being warmed by the aspirator motor in some situations, or more likely the sensor in the Stevenson screen was more susceptible to being cooled by radiative effects of clear, cold, outer space sky than an aspirated sensor, on those cloudless sky occasions…
Tom,
Shame that the Con article with all this new data from 2 shelters fails to opine which one, if any, gives the most accurate measurement and also avoids the question of whether both are unfit for purpose.
I call them unfit for estimation of local temperatures of the type that go into regional, national and global averages. You just have to look at the huge adjustments like ACORN-SAT that curators like BOM apply before use. Geoff S
Replace the solid bottom with something similar to the slatted sides.
The obligatory political comment. This is, after all, from The Conversation.
But then, what could affect it?
It may well be that nothing could — that is, power is above reason. However many fingers the Party says there are, Mr. O’Brien! And if the Pope says that black is white and white is black, a good Jesuit repeats without even slightest hesitation.
Renewable link time!
China adds new clean power equivalent to UK’s entire electricity output
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/16/china-generating-enough-clean-energy-match-uk-entire-electricity-output
Only a quarter of Saudi Arabia’s $1 trillion capex plan will go into oil
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/only-a-quarter-of-saudi-arabias-1-trillion-capex-plan-will-go-into-oil?chl=em&plt=briefings&cid=0816&plc=body
‘Massive disinformation campaign’ is slowing global transition to green energy
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/08/fossil-fuel-industry-using-disinformation-campaign-to-slow-green-transition-says-un
You can scream at it, but renewables are coming.
You are funny
Neo-religious types are a constant source of amusement.
but renewables do not exist on a calm night, so where then did they go?
China hasn’t solved that problem yet.
The main element of the con job that is the “clean energy” bullshit is always promoting it as “CAPACITY”, knowing full well that wind & solar will be struggling to actually deliver 20% of the mW claimed in the propaganda.
“China adds new clean power equivalent to UK’s entire electricity output”
Actual produced energy or just on the labels?
At the end of 2023 solar accounted for 20.9% of China’s installed electricity capacity but it only supplied 3% of China’s electricity generation during that year. An awful lot of solar was doing nothing but sitting around.
Wind supplied 9% whilst coal supplied 70%.
Nameplate production.
From the link: “There is this prevailing narrative – and a lot of it is being pushed by the fossil fuel industry and their enablers – that climate action is too difficult, it’s too expensive,” he said. “It is absolutely critical that leaders, and all of us, push back and explain to people the value of climate action, but also the consequences of climate inaction.”
I read the whole article. There’s not one bit of proof that the fossil fuel industry is doing anything they claim the industry is doing.
This is just another of the many unsubstantiated assertions connected with Climate Alarmist propaganda.
Some people are waking up to reality. That is what is causing this increasing lack of faith in windmills and solar. The problems with using them are becoming more obvious every day. The fossil fuel industry has nothing to do with it. If someone disagrees, then they should provide a little evidence that the fossil fuel industry is running a disinformation campaign.
«They always project».
I would have less of a problem betting my farm on them if that were true.
/plonk/
Well of course. There’s no point in spending more money on more oil wells when you’re well on the downward slope of recoverable reserves.
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2023-04-19/the-status-of-global-oil-production-2023-update/
renewables are coming.
I have yet to see any working proof-of-concept, though, for all your faith. Even one small town, say 10,000 people and all the businesses, 100% run by renewables 24/7 – provably so, as in no interconnections to a stable external grid.
With the amount of money being spent, that shouldn’t be too hard to do. Prove the technology actually works.
King Island (hydro.com.au)
75% diesel as I type.
FYI, Saudi’s energy use.. only goes to2021, but solar is just an edge line.
Clean energy? So NOT wind and solar.
Wind and solar are DIRTY and WASTEFUL energy supplies…
… from mining, through production, to environment-destroying installation, to the end of their short-life disposal.
time of use rates for electricity. this has been the case here in michigan for a few years. someone mentioned a pilot program to test the viability of solar, wind and batteries. i say the test is already under way. utilities in michigan and now in california are desperate to try and delay the test results (rolling mid day blackouts). they will use kinder gentler phrases like load shedding.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/08/southern-californians-hit-massive-electricity-bills-after-new/
it truly is sad what is happening. graft, greed and corruption have been a part of some large corporations for ever. not much we can do about that. but now government has gone full frontal nudity, partnering in the corruption. they don’t even hide from it anymore. there is a term for that, you know, when government and business/corporate entities join together, that term…that term…its right on the tip of my tung, somebody help me out….
progressivism!
I know the word you’re thinking of, but Godwin’s Law casts its shadow…
“Enshittification” has recently been added to the lexicon of common descriptors….usually for internet services and software, but let’s use it for electricity too.
Does it start with “f” and end in “m”, and 5 letters in between?
Oh! F’m
An open thread.. very nice, I wanted to share this chatPG, …
Revised Consideration of the Question: “Is the Recent Global Warming Man-Made?”
Key Facts:
Increase in Greenhouse Gases:
Measured Increase in CO2: Atmospheric CO2 has increased from pre-industrial levels of around 280 ppm to over 415 ppm today, primarily due to human activities such as burning fossil fuels, industrial processes, and deforestation.
Temperature Rise:
Observed Global Warming: There has been an observed increase in global average temperatures of approximately 1.1°C since the late 19th century, which coincides with the period of increased greenhouse gas emissions.
Uncertainties in Climate Models:
Model Variability (CMIP5 vs. CMIP6): Climate models (CMIP5 vs. CMIP6) show significant differences in projected outcomes due to improvements in understanding, particularly in cloud dynamics. These discrepancies highlight that climate models have uncertainties, and their precision is still evolving, leading to challenges in conclusively attributing the observed warming to specific causes.
25% Uncertainty Change: The change in uncertainty between CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, particularly due to better cloud characterization, indicates that models are not fully precise and can differ significantly in their predictions.
Natural Climate Factors:
Oceanic Cycles and “Winter Gatekeeper” Theory: The “Winter Gatekeeper” theory and other natural climate variability factors, such as oceanic and atmospheric patterns, suggest that natural processes could play a significant role in observed climate trends. These natural cycles might explain some or even a significant portion of the recent warming.
Solar and Volcanic Activity: While these natural factors do affect the climate, their contributions to the recent warming trend are considered smaller relative to the impact of increased greenhouse gases. However, the exact contribution remains uncertain.
Paleoclimate Studies:
Selection Bias and “P-hacking” Concerns: Paleoclimate data, which relies on proxies like ice cores and tree rings, may be affected by selection bias (“p-hacking”), where data that fits preconceived notions are more likely to be highlighted. This introduces uncertainties in the historical comparison between natural climate variability and current warming trends.
Conclusion:
Given the facts:
Yes, there is strong evidence that human activities have contributed significantly to the recent increase in global temperatures through the release of greenhouse gases.
However, uncertainties in climate models, including a roughly 25% change in uncertainty due to better cloud characterization between CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, and the influence of natural climate factors like ocean cycles and potential data selection biases in paleoclimate studies, mean that attributing the recent warming exclusively to human activities remains complex.
Therefore, while the evidence supports a significant anthropogenic role, the precise extent of this role versus natural factors is not conclusively determinable with the current level of uncertainty in models and data.
This approach better integrates the need to avoid generalizations and acknowledges the complexities and uncertainties involved, leading to a more precise and fact-based conclusion.
The IPCC (and similarly the chat bot) uses the words “uncertainty” and “uncertain” a lot, but without regard for what the words mean with regard to metrology. Real measurement uncertainty is routinely ignored.
so what’s the uncertainty caused by?
I mean, it’s not as if they’re trying to parse a “coupled, non-linear, chaotic system”.
Just make some stuff up ffs!
(oh wait . . . )
Well one main often unconsidered source of uncertainty for proxy reconstructions is the selection bias “does this proxy represent the local temperature”, for current values it would be the coverage and data quality (location of the sensor ID a main point) and in models limited input data and incomplete mathematical description and calculation power (grid size)
Yes, what I regularly refer to as the appalling quality of the probity and provenance of temperatures and other recorded measurements data, rendering these inputs totally unfit for scientific research.
That is just the kind of word salad generative AI produces. It bears superficial resemblance to what an answer to that question should look like, but it doesn’t embody any reasoning. Do not be enchanted by its fluency.
Well, yes chatpg has a typical way of writing, but my point was that we have a robot concersing that the man-made global warming hypothesis might be wrong,
No, it just isn’t. It is generating a stream of words that can be parsed, and no more. There is zero reasoning involved. It is strictly concerned with generating text that looks like an answer would look.
Not unlike a politician.
WordPress comments keep getting slower, and slower, and … slow er, and ……. sloooower…
https://www.lakeconews.com/news/79435-space-news-scientists-find-oceans-of-water-on-mars
Space News: Scientists find oceans of water on Mars
Robert Sanders
Posted On Sunday, 18 August 2024 01:51
——
It will be a lot easier searching for life in the water of Mars, than in the moons of Jupiter.
If life develops everywhere it is possible, then there ought to be some evidence of life on Mars.
Evidence? Well yes, just look at all those wrecked spacecraft laying around.
I notice Neil deGrasse Tyson is claiming that DNA doesn’t determine whether a person is male or female.
Quite why we are supposed to care what he thinks about anything other than astrophysics is not explained, but let’s not linger over that puzzle. Let’s wonder what’s going on in his head and the head of anyone else who spouts this nonsense.
I’ll go first. I suspect (with no evidence, only intuition) he sees this issue a re-litigation of gay emancipation. We already had that conversation and decided gay is OK. I am on-board with that. I am the straightest person you’ll meet but I am certain that people attracted to the same sex experience that attraction exactly the way I experience attraction to the opposite sex. It is authentic and knowable to them.
But thinking you know how it feels to be a horse, or a bat, or the other sex is absurd. It is not possible even to know how it feels to be your own sex; all you know is how you feel. Do I feel male? I don’t know. I can’t know. In fact I bet there are many men who feel very differently from me who still count themselves men. (I write of men here because I claim I am one; I assume the same applies for women.)
I mention this here only because we are also invited to admire his views on climate science, another subject well outside his area of expertise but another where he feels his pronouncements are valuable.
When a post here is flagged as “possible spam”, whose rules are being triggered? Is it a general WordPress rule or WUWT rule? And is there anyone moderating such posts in a reasonably timely fashion? (I ask because it’s been a few hours now…)
In my experience the rules are unknowable and constantly changing. It is only partially under the control of WUWT but the web site would be unworkable without the filters. And yes the moderators generally do a praiseworthy job of rescuing posts from automated purgatory.
On a previous post, someone had said that they’d like to see an “Open Thread” everyday.
Once a week is fine with me. (At most twice a week.)
There are lots of great post put up everyday. An “Open Thread” day would detract from them.
(I enjoyed connecting with people willing to help with a problem I had fixing an old Lionel Trains accessory on an Open Thread. Would we really want to see such “sidings” pop up everyday?)
PS The Lionel thing here was a last resort.
Oops!
PJ police investigate massive blaze initially attributed to electric car – Portugal Resident
on top of the South Korean carpark-
How Hyundai And Kia Are Dealing With EV Fire Concerns In Korea (msn.com)
The Mouth makes some unpleasant suggestions for the EV fan club to ward off the circling insurance underwriters-
The truth about EVs and fire risk in our cities | Auto Expert John Cadogan (youtube.com)