Essay by Eric Worrall
Unusually high sea surface temperatures off the East Coast of Australia appear to have swamped the anticipated West Pacific drought promoting effects of the 2023-24 El Nino.
This was supposed to be a dry Summer for Australia.
The Bureau declares El Nino and positive Indian Ocean Dipole events
19/09/2023
Issued: 19 September, 2023
The Bureau of Meteorology has declared that El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are underway.
Warmer and drier conditions will be more likely over spring and summer for parts of Australia, under the influence of these two climate drivers.
Bureau of Meteorology Climate Manager Dr Karl Braganza said both El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) tend to draw rain away from Australia.
“Over spring, their combined impact can increase the chance of below average rainfall over much of the continent and higher temperatures across the southern two-thirds of the country,” Dr Braganza said.
“The Bureau’s three-month forecast for Australian rainfall and temperature have been indicating warm and dry conditions for some time.”
“An established El Niño and positive IOD reinforces our confidence in those predictions. Based on history, it is now also more likely that warm and dry conditions will persist over eastern Australia until autumn.”
…
Read more: https://media.bom.gov.au/releases/1183/the-bureau-declares-el-nino-and-positive-indian-ocean-dipole-events/
But Summer Weather refused to go to plan;
We’re in an El Niño – so why has Australia been so wet?
Monday, 4 Dec 2023 at 03:51 pm | Source: The Conversation
Andrew King, Andrew Dowdy
After three La Niña summers many of us would have been expecting much hotter and drier conditions this spring and summer after the arrival of El Niño. Instead, in many parts of eastern Australia it’s rained and rained over the last few weeks.
El Niño hasn’t gone away. It’s expected to continue into 2024. Why the rain? Because even with an El Niño, eastern Australia can still experience significant rain events.
…
Much of eastern Australia has seen wetter than normal conditions over November. Vigorous low-pressure systems and thunderstorms brought record rain totals and flooding to parts of Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland.
…
But again, nothing is certain, as we’ve seen. Despite these two climate cycles suggesting less rain was likely, the rain returned.
Why? One reason is the unusually high sea surface temperatures to the south and southeast of Australia, which can drive more moisture into the air and trigger more rain in the region.
…
Read more: https://findanexpert.unimelb.edu.au/news/72873-we%27re-in-an-el-niño-–%C2%A0so-why-has-australia-been-so-wet%3F
Sea surface temperatures have been unusually warm this year, which Andrew King and Andrew Dowdy admitted is one of the reasons for this year’s high rainfall, in defiance of the usual El Nino pattern. But isn’t global warming supposed to deliver unusually warm sea surface temperatures every year, in the not too distant future?
The Ocean Has a Fever
August 21, 2023
In March and April 2023, some earth scientists began to point out that average sea surface temperatures had surpassed the highest levels seen in a key data record maintained by NOAA. Months later, they remain at record levels, with global sea surface temperatures 0.99°C (1.78°F) above average in July. That was the fourth consecutive month they were at record levels.
Scientists from NASA have taken a closer look at why. “There are a lot of things that affect the world’s sea surface temperatures, but two main factors have pushed them to record heights,” said Josh Willis, an oceanographer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). “We have an El Niño developing in the Pacific, and that’s on top of long-term global warming that has been pushing ocean temperatures steadily upward almost everywhere for a century.”
…
Read more: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151743/the-ocean-has-a-fever
I guess we owe a vote of thanks to Dr. Andrew King and NASA for showing how global warming might benefit Australia, by preventing El Nino conditions from delivering devastating droughts. If only global warming was certain to continue.
Obviously there’s such a thing as too much rain, and that risk would have to be better addressed were rainfall to increase. My heart goes out to people in Townsville and elsewhere who are currently experiencing severe floods and power outages from ex-Cyclone Kirrily. We can only imagine how much their suffering might have been eased, if all the cash wasted on useless renewables had instead been spent on flood management.
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The IPCC AR4 Chapter ten says in a warmer world there will be more precipitation. Not a recipe for drought which is usually what the Climate Mob usually claims.
Overall rainfall is thermodynamically limited by the amount of energy which can pass through the climate system, I suspect the more precipitation prediction is about as reliable as the rest of their product.
e.g. https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/17/2873/2013/
But a global limit on overall precipitation rate doesn’t rule out beneficial regional adjustments, like more reliable rainfall for Eastern Australia, or more regular but less intense rainfall.
So far in the United States the prediction is true – see below. Is the IPCC allowed to ever be correct here on WUWT? Jesus said render unto Caesar that which is Caesar’s and unto God which is God’s. So if Caesar or the IPCC is right about something don’t loose credibility with a knee jerk response. Well anyway it must be time for this one again:
1. More rain is not a problem.
2. Warmer weather is not a problem.
3. More arable land is not a problem.
4. Longer growing seasons is not a problem.
5. CO2 greening of the earth is not a problem.
6. There isn’t any Climate Crisis.
See #1 in that list.
The US is a land of extremes, including some impressive megadroughts, so it’s no mystery if a long term trend develops.
Maybe I was a little harsh on the IPCC, a lot of the published science is good. But I’m very dubious about predictions which claim significant increases in overall precipitation, and claims regional forecasts have predictive value.
I mean, look how wrong Australia’s BOM were about this summer’s precipitation levels.
Yes, but the boffins did admit that weather is chaotic and difficult to model. /s
https://theconversation.com/did-the-bom-get-it-wrong-on-the-hot-dry-summer-no-predicting-chaotic-systems-is-probability-not-certainty-221496
They can’t tell you next week’s weather, but you can totally rely on their century scale forecast.
Yeah sure Eric, but isn’t this the only time there’s ever been flooding in Oz?
I’ve been there once and it wasn’t even raining.
Why if it doesn’t end soon you’ll all be rooned! (Said a friend of mine by name of Hanrahan)
“…weather is chaotic and difficult to model…”
No, impossible.
7… Grass growing AS YOU MOW IT.. is a problem !! 😉
Well, it is when you are the one has to keep it in check. !
checked if your mower’s blades are still there?
🙂
Yep, certainly cuts the grass, until the next day ! 🙂
One thing I learned in New Orleans, Louisiana; certain grasses grow much faster and bigger than other grasses.
They have a grass in New Orleans, St. Augustine grass that grows rapidly.
Miss mowing for a week and it’s a foot tall (305 mm).
Miss mowing for 2 weeks and it’s a thick stalk 18″ to 24″ (46 to 61 cm), think corn only it grows faster than corn.
Wait a month and you’ll need a sharp machete or have to hold your mower several feet in the air.
It’s the first grass I’ve ever owned that crunched when you walk on it. In spite of that, it takes a lot of foot traffic abuse and keeps growing.
The trick is to mow frequently enough to prevent the grass stem thickening.
I rarely met that challenge, so I retired my rotary push mower and bought a 5 hp push mower that never met a grass blade it could not cut.
I did use seed in planting a section of my yard, Bermuda grass. It took a lot of patience, watering and several seedings to get it started.
When I moved into the house, I had to get the yard filled and releveled. Which took multiple dump trucks of Atchafalaya sand/silt mix.
A coworker brought me a grocery bag of St. Augustine cuttings. I only had to spread the cuttings evenly over the yard. They took root, were completely satisfied with rain and sun and the majority of my yard became St. Augustine grass.
That old adage to cut your grass to 3″ or taller? I started mowing at the lowest cutting setting my mower would take. I wanted my grass to have to struggle to survive.
It didn’t matter, at best, I got a couple of days extra before having to mow again.
Only if they have not changed their tune based on the obvious like they have done with snowfall. There has been no reduction in the increasing rate of CO2 so all the predictions dating back to 1990s that have created this corruption of science need to be called out.
GISS are predicting that precipitation across the USA will decline a little. I have not checked if their numbers are close to observations. Attached is their prediction. Your data is already invalidating their prediction.
SC,
Shall we worship the IPCC, or swear fealty?
What did He say about false prophets, fortune tellers, and changers of money?
As I remember, He was talking about the Temple vs paying taxes, and it was a trick question, from the Pharisees, to get Him to put His own head on the block. They eventually got Him anyway, but it was a great answer.
Here’s the link IPCC AR4 Chapter 10 Page 750 (pdf page 4)
Mean Precipitation
For a future warmer climate… Globally averaged mean water
vapour, evaporation and precipitation are projected to increase.
This is IPCC report on future climate:
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/TAR-09.pdf
And an extract:
The USA is sub-tropical so your chart showing USA increasing precipitation invalidates the IPCC prediction.
Likewise most of Australia is sub-tropical and the high southern latitudes have not been spared intense rain. Many Tesla drivers have been looking for high ground to park their woke chariots of fire.this summer and there are not many of them in tropical Australia.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/all-50-us-states-have-reached-snowy-benchmark-this-winter/1616236?fbclid=IwAR1LAGjzderyIzkiDoj9jtlN9E2KQsOLXcSgXjY6HnxXT4aiLFiBlhppbIk
Yes, all U.S. States have recieved snowfall this year.
A few weeks ago, the folks on the national weather channel were emphasizing that New York City had not had snow in “700 days!”. They kept saying this day after day.
Then it snowed in New York City and they had to stop being dramatic over the lack of snowfall.
Their new tactic is to say that although New York City finally got some snowfall, it hasn’t gotten as much as the States along the Gulf of Mexico (which don’t normally get much snow)!
It’s always something. They have to find some weather extreme or other to hype as some sort of harbinger of doom to come.
Because CO2.
woke chariots of fire
I’ll use that if I may
Australia’s climate prognosticators predict a steady decline in precipitation. In fact Australia has spent billions on desalination plants because the dams were forecast to never fill again back in the naughties.
In November 2023, the BoM were forecasting hellfire for Australia in January 2024.
There has been so much rain the PM has had to promise to erect more wind turbines to stem the flooding. The damn things were justified on the basis of preventing global warming and fires. Now we need more of them to prevent flooding – the logic there seems flawed.
The is no reporter asking the obvious question – have we built too many wind turbines and now experiencing an overshoot in intended consequence? Australia has missed the Goldilocks zone between too dry and too wet.
1 degree warmer sea surface temp increases the vapor pressure of water by 7%…therefore increasing the number of molecules of water above the sea surface by 7%. So likely increasing the amount of precipitable water in the atmosphere above the oceans by 7%….so probably increasing rainfall by approximately 7%. However in most of the world a change of 7% would be hidden by the relatively huge variation in annual rainfall. The rain gauge in my garden and the one on my weather station will vary more than 7% either way in the same rainfall and they are only a couple of hundred feet apart, and they can be double or half the reading from the official weather station at the airport 9 miles away….
The AR4 (WG-I) report came out in 2007.
The “Accepted, subject to final editing” version of the WG-I contribution to the AR6 document cycle was released in August 2021, the “Final / Approved” version came off the (electronic) presses in May 2022.
URL : https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
As others have noted, once you get past the SPM the IPCC WG-I reports are actually quite good, with talk of the “uncertainties” and full disclosure of “error ranges / confidence intervals”.
Here is the IPCC in 2021/2 on the difficulties of attempting to “project / predict” how precipitation “would” change, in the near-term at least.
In the Executive Summary of Chapter 4, “Future Global Climate: Scenario-based Projections and Near-term Information”, on page 556 :
The IPCC also had a separate “Frequently Asked Question” box on the specific issue of the potential effects of any “enhanced hydrological cycle” due to future increases in GMST.
FAQ 8.2, “Will floods become more severe or more frequent as a result of climate change?”, on page 1155 :
Again, the IPCC (WG-I) reports are actually quite good … once you get past the SPM …
There are some experts in weather conditions forecasting that really know their stuff.
Ladies and gents, I give you Prof Cliff Mass.
Prof Mass recently posed the “Five Day Rule” about weather forecasting –
Graphically, it’s presented thus –
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/01/the-five-day-rule-for-weather-prediction.html
Eric, maybe you should send Cliff’s wisdom to the BoM, and save Aussies having to constantly wade in BoM’s weather bullshit?
Cliff’s article in full –
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/01/the-five-day-rule-for-weather-prediction.html
Thank’s Mr.
I wrote this article because I thought it was funny Dr. Andrew King, a fairly active alarmist, offered an explanation for the unexpected rainfall which implies global warming might be a net benefit for Australia – which might be the case.
To be fair, I also expected this summer to be drier than usual, El Nino is normally a strong indicator of reduced precipitation, which is why I booked a driving holiday through areas of Australia which suffer significant flood risk when it rains. We went white knuckle on some legs of the drive, arriving just after or just before the floods in a few places.
Having said that, overall I agree with Cliff Mass, anything beyond a few days is difficult to accurately predict. I mean, look at this week’s big news Aussie weather story, Cyclone Kirrily was supposed to bring severe flooding to South East Queensland. I cancelled an event because I thought I’d have to swim to the event. But so far most of the flooding has been confined to the far North, and Kirrily is currently dumping what’s left of its moisture over the arid interior.
Australia will cool as time goes by. Summer solstice sunlight peaked at 25S 1200 years ago. It is only the thermal inertia of the surrounding oceans that have delayed the cooling trend.
In fact, January temperatures in 1980 in Australia were warmer than January 2022.
Do not assume anything you are told about climate is correct until you validate it yourself. There are scammers out there who have an agenda. I cannot believe how many innocent souls have been misled by this “Greenhouse” garbage.
I think the future will be a very different place to today.
For example, one of the explanations I’ve seen for why we are currently experiencing the Quaternary Glaciation is the rise of the circumpolar current around Antarctica.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quaternary_glaciation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Circumpolar_Current
If our descendants are threatened by a new ice age, they might respond by blocking the Drake Passage with an 800km barricade.
Stopping the Antarctic Circumpolar Current with a barricade would reconnect Antarctic ocean currents with the equator, and would likely lead to significant global warming, liberating the world from the current cycle of ice.
Come to think of it, I wouldn’t be surprised if an ice bridge across the Drake Passage is why our glacials end.
There’s a thought.
Or blow up the Panama Canal. (not meant to be an incitement to violence!)
Apparently North and South America joining hands lead to the cooler periods the planet had experienced these past few million years, as compared to Jurassic, Cretaceous and PETM. That’s what I heard anyway – interesting that the Antarctic/Drake Passage thing would be the opposite type of remedy!
Geo-engineers Assemble!
(I’m fascinated by proposed large scale geo-engineering ‘projects’ – dreams really – like hydro-electric projects utilizing Death Valley, the Dead Sea, Qattara Depression, etc.
I’m surprise there hasn’t been a big wind farm planned for in the ‘Roaring Forties’.
SO now we know where to dispose of all the solar panels and bird choppers that are essentially 90% + unrecyclable.
They go obsolete as they are assembled, as a newer, higher performance model becomes available – better for the windfarms and such to wait, say a decade, when the technology has matured and reliability improved.
A dirty little secret of the meteorological bureaux is that every few days or so, they have to manually go into their forecasting models and reset the parameters because the models invariably go haywire and run off at tangents. Cliff’s graph on his webpage exemplifies this.
If that proves to be the case, it’s yet another advantage of warming!
Seems a good place to put this. 🙂
New Study Concludes ‘CO2 Can Have No Measurable Effect On Ocean Temperatures’ (notrickszone.com)
Absolutely, CO2 is insignificant compared to other factors. As Willis once explained, the outcome of adding CO2 is at most that the afternoon wet season tropical thunderstorm will sometimes start a few minutes earlier than normal.
I don’t seriously believe that CO2 is driving up ocean temperatures, I wrote this because I thought it was funny alarmists offered an explanation for our wet El Nino summer which implies global warming might be a net benefit for Australia.
There are millions more water molecules in the oceans than CO2 molecules in the air. The CO2 molecules get their energy from the ground which isn’t very warm, about 60F. So they sure aren’t what is heating the oceans.
The oceans can store heat for many decades, so its warming is probably the result of more solar output over the last hundred years or so.
The CO2 molecules form a multitude of compounds with the 3% salt water.
As that happens not many free molecules are left over
Their concentration at the surface is determined by Henry’s Law of partial pressures which are a function of temperatures
It is just basic Physics and Chemistry
As usual, experts just don’t know. And my children know what snow is.
Flannery got it half right-
The rain now falls on water already sitting on the ground.
Flannery still get wheeled out to speak on climate matters!
The last week or so saw an interesting phenomena over northern Australia. Tropical low 03U actually formed and intensified over land in the Northern Territory. Central pressure got down to 992hPa but is was maintained at 994hPa or below for more than a week while over land – indicative of warm water already on land. It provided a massive amount of rain in the NT and the north of WA. Rain it produced ended up reaching Adelaide via WA.
A good deal of central Australia is below current sea level and it is not too ridiculous to imagine the land holding enough water to sustain cyclic convective instability such that resulting lows pull moisture from coastal water into central Australia and the water becoming permanent. Most of the water coming in from the east gets dropped onto coastal ranges but the north is very low while the south and west are a little higher but not high ranges. The Amazonisation of Australia is not out of the question as the peak solar intensity over Australia declines and summer temperatures moderate.
Those inland rivers can get mighty wide at time.
A mostly dry creek bed during a drought can end up as a many km wide river
Search images for “Diamantina River dry” and “Diamantina River flood” to see what I mean.
Yeah in 1990 I flew Sydney to Alice Springs on a company conference charter flight.
The Channel Country was overflowing, 100k wide at least I reckon.
The Kiwi contingent on board were asking if we were still in Australia.
Worth the trip – got to climb Ayers Rock at dawn.
What a sacrament!
Every human being should experience this just once to fully appreciate the stunning beauty of nature.
Not without effort and risk though – many climbers died over the relatively short number of decades climbing was accessible.
isn’t that insane – shows up nicely the joys of Low Pressure..
It’s how Aus has got itself so neatly installed between a pair of Highs over the ocean, one directly east and the other directly west.
They are reinforcing the overland Low and ‘bingo hey presto‘ – its doing what Lows do and sucking water off the ocean.
It is how the place should be working if it was a Copy of Amazon
But to do that it needs water storage (and control) on the land itself and if it was going to happen it would have done so inside the previous 30,000years
What Aus needs is:
i.e. Trees – lots of them, the bigger the better (NOT Conifers)
BUT, the trees need food (not esp CO₂) – they need micro-nutrients & trace elements and those things just ain’t there.
They did used to be but vast amounts of them are now ‘just offshore‘ feeding and maintaining the GBR.
Either bring them back ashore or mine some fresh from onshore – there’s a lot of Basalt in/under WA ain’t there?
Nothing could be better placed, ready on-site, or more perfect
Black line is the 1014mb isobar
Pink = High pressure centre(s)
Blue = Low pressure centre
Aqua = Onshore moisture bearing winds
Expand that image outward and there’s an amazing amount of activity south of Australia/Tasmania = a huge mish-mash of quite deep Lows – what’s all that about then…..
No. That argument is invalid. During the last fall in peak sunlight in the SH, the oceans were being cooled by glaciers forming both in the Arctic and Antarctic as the sea level started rising. This time around, the sea level is close to its maximum already so there is very little change in buoyancy to break off the ice shelves. Circumstances are similar to four precession cycles ago without the additional plant food.
Australia definitely had inland rainforests as recently as 11Ma ago. I do not know the conditions in Australia at the termination of the last interglacial. However, as the NH goes into glaciation this time around, the CO2 levels are much higher than 120ka and more conducive to abundant plant growth. Biomass helps retain the moisture and moisture begets moisture.
Trees made Earth habitable for animal life and they are important moderators of weather extremes now.
Peta, when analysing climatic or geographic regions of Australia, keep in mind that the continent is influenced by a number of “climates” and geographies and topographies –
tropical
sub-tropical
temperate
coastal
marine
fertile plains
alpine
deserts
and also oceanic influences from –
Western South Pacific Ocean
Indian Ocean
Southern Ocean
Coral Sea
Have I missed any?
Never make the blunder of “averaging” natural effects in continents,
not even Antarctica.
I’d love to see this tried.
It might not work. The evaporation rates in the interior are pretty spectacular. Even moist coastal region evaporation is crazy, in windy dry weather my big pool can lose several inches per day.
Having said that, the flow rates of some Northern rivers when it rains are also spectacular.
Most of the Northern water is currently wasted. There have been various schemes such as the Bradfield Scheme (proposed 1938) for moistening the interior by diverting a few rivers inland, though most studies reviewing this and similar proposals suggest the available water is not high enough to overcome the evaporation which would occur in transit. But who knows, sometimes you’ve just got to try something and see what happens.
Australia did have inland rainforests in relatively recent history. Biomass holds water and begets water.
I lived in Mackay for a few years and had a large tree eventually cover all of the swimming pool. The pool was otherwise surrounded by windbreaks of shrubs, house, high fencing and shed. Evaporation rate was not that high.
One important aspect for this stage of the precession cycle as far as Australia is concerned is that there is more plant food available.
Australia could have a really bright future as far as climate is concerned. As long as we stop cutting down trees to install wind turbines and solar farms as well as stilling onshore breezes by building offshore wind farms.
The peak flow rate of some of those Northern rivers in monsoon season is insane, so there’s enough fresh water to do a lot of good. Just need some politicians who have a clue.
Weather does not equal climate. Never did, never will. Even in Australia.
Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.
On my Wisconsin dairy farm, we always expect Winter to be cold and snowy. Sometimes it isn’t. We always expect summer to be hot and dryish. Sometimes it isn’t (for which the farm crop yields are always thankful—the difference between two and three alfalfa cuttings is very tangible).
The continued alarmist attempts to conflate the two gets rather annoying.
Or, to put it colloquially (let’s see if Charles allows it) the predicted climate shit never happened, but the expected weather shit sometimes did.
I would like the warmists to tell us precisely what both the weather and the climate should be in the absence of modern man.
I’m just hoping the BoM will predict a cold wet period for southern Victoria so I can finally dry off and warm up.
I lived in Victoria for a while, nice people and lovely countryside, but it’s usually very cold, except brief occasions when it is too hot. This summer was horrendous, we were there in December, needed to buy warmer clothes.
Maybe it will get warmer in Victoria if Mount Gambier erupts.
So we cannot predict the weather or the climate out more than 1 week +/- but settled science says what we are experiencing is unnatural. Hmmm
That being said though; I think the potential to understand the mechanisms and make better predictions over the next decades is huge. Better instruments, more coverage from more satellites, possibility of drones, plus millions of inexpensive weather stations at different levels maybe and all linked together and feeding data to AI programs updating CFD models( learning all the time at a fantastic rate). I think the potential is there.
Absolutely, throw enough AI at it eventually some of it might make sense.
I live in a flood prone area on the east coast of Queensland (Australia), my tanks are half full and the dams are empty. This wet is isolated and does not cover the 4,000 klm of the entire east coast. Just more scare mongering.
We saw a lot of rain on our driving trip, sucks that it all missed you so far.
The fool Flannery said we’d never have rain again and if we did it would simply run off the surface. Instead, we are drenched and the ground so sodden that trees are falling over.
ENSO meter is showing a steep decline from ‘strong’ el Nino and there is a strong tongue of cold water motoring across the Pacific from Chile.
It’s incomprehensible how organisations like the ABC, Nine, The Guardian, lobbyists and even government depts continue to embarrass their credibility by consulting Tim Flannery on any aspects of weather or climate.
According to the LA Times the latest climate bogeyman is the reduction in groundwater supplies throughout the world. Hotter, colder, drought, floods, too much farming, not enough food. Take your pick and you too can be an alarmist. They’re just making it easy.
Everything bad can be blamed on witches updated to today’s world….
Rainfall in eastern Australia has a pretty clear cyclical pattern since records began:
Time-series analysis of extreme rainfall and flood events in two water catchments of Eastern New South Wales shows an indicative link to Gleissberg 87 yr cycles
“We conclude that [] recognition of the Gleissberg cycle may have predictive value for ~80 yr cycles of flood-prone and drought-prone times.”.
https://www.authorea.com/doi/full/10.1002/essoar.10510770.1
The paper expects that eastern Australia will within the next few years (if it hasn’t already) enter a ~40-year period of above average rainfall.
It has nothing to do with climate change.
The massive problem with climate science at the moment, and for the last several decades, is that it is all driven by completely useless models. Every time that the weather doesn’t match model predictions,- as in the case with recent unexpected rainfall in eastern Australia – the modellers just tune the models to the new observations. Then they blithely ignore past results and blather on about how well the models have predicted the weather and that the crapp they coded into the models was the cause. This is a game that they can play for ever – until sensible people get together and stop them (long overdue)
“If only global warming was certain to continue.”
Speaking from Canada, that is my ardent wish!
Governments wasting trillions to stop good weather from happening!
Eric, firstly thanks for posting many interesting information on so called climate change. On fact there has been no climate change in the last 2000 years but some relativey short lived incidents of weather including droughts, floods, cold and warm all nothing to do with CO2.
BOM in Australia are hopeless at forcasting. As Dr Jennifer Marohasy says in her blog. BOM use the wrong circulation model which includes CO2 for their forcasts and can not even get it right for one week out ( at our house the ants are better forcasting rain).
The IOD may have some affect on WA but not the rest of Australia. The SOI is a better indicator of El Nino and La Nina. I suggest you look at the the Qld gov Long Paddock site. The forcast El Nino wss never a super event and it has ended at the beginning of January.
I was aware this El Nino was a bit of a fizzer, but it still caught me by surprise how wet Summer is.
But I don’t have a supercomputer and a multi-million dollar budget.
Don’t take this article too seriously, I just thought it was funny stringing alarmist verbal emissions together yields an inference that global warming might benefit Australia.
Why not look at the circulation in the South Pacific?
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
OK, I’m looking – nice pretty picture.
It’s interesting that you’re looking at the actual temps instead of the anomalies – can you see El Nino’s currents without the anomalies? The ‘hot water’ off the west coast of S. America in El Nino maps looks mild in true temp graphs like yours above.
Maybe you could explain why the heat seems to be focused in the India Ocean and the Western Pacific – The Eastern Pacific is at the same latitude, so why such a difference?
I would question the accuracy of some of the temperatures. I live in SEQ close to the shown 27C. I go regularly to the beach where they measure the water temperature. Although there may be some affect from the sun on the shallower beach temperatures, I find the temperature is more like 25C. It is very likely the “modeled” temperature is not as high as shown in the south western Pacific. The SOI figure shown in the link above is the difference of atmospheric pressure (which does relate to temperature above the ocean surface) between Darwin and Tahiti. At present that pressure difference is +ve (6mb) where as in Nov 23 it was close to 1.5mb and slightly -ve in Sept 23 (mild El Nino). Models are wrong if based on wrong input.
You have to look at the steady circulation in the eastern Pacific and the Humboldt surface current.
Endless rain in eastern Australia.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2024/02/01/0000Z/wind/isobaric/700hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-215.53,-21.66,874/loc=139.806,-16.965
Thanks….. not !
The weather in Australia is interesting.
LOL 🙂
Laughter is health.
It’s a lot quieter now – but not in the SE US:
Am I seeing it right – there a anti-clockwise rotation that’s bringing in moisture from the Pacific at the top right, and when it circulates around the higher elevations on land it drops as rain? So if the prevailing winds were different then this current drenching wouldn’t be happening?
From the article: “In March and April 2023, some earth scientists began to point out that average sea surface temperatures had surpassed the highest levels seen in a key data record maintained by NOAA. Months later, they remain at record levels, with global sea surface temperatures 0.99°C (1.78°F) above average in July. That was the fourth consecutive month they were at record levels.”
Sea surface temperatures are not a homogenous whole. It’s not the same temperature in every part of the world’s oceans.
Instead, just like with the land, sea surface temperatures vary by location. Some sea surface temperatures go higher, and some go lower. The ocean is only “boiling” in certain locations.
Exactly – and they are freaking out about a lone Celsius degree – which is typical for a strong El Nino year, like 1997-98
Notice the rather straight trend from 1900-ish to today – regardless of how hard China, India, etc., are trying to be comfortable and prosperous. 120 years for just 1.2°C – not exactly a horror movie.
The eruption of Hunga Tonga injected a huge amount of water vapor into the upper atmosphere.
What goes up, must come down.
Maybe it’s coming down on Australia.
Apparently the BOM got a bad batch of chicken bones and tea leaves.
These BOM predictions have had serious adverse financial impacts. Many pastoralists sold off large amounts of their herds prior to summer because these predictions of low rainfall meant there would not be enough feedstock. They did not get good prices as the markets were flooded with farmers offloading stock. Now, with excellent pastures due to the rain, this has cost them a fortune in poor prices and lost opportunities. They should sue.
Conversely, many holidaymakers booked accommodation this summer in Queensland only to see their dream holidays washed out.
BTW, the impact of Cyclone Kirilee on Townsville was minimal apart from trees falling on powerlines as it was a very fast-moving system. It is now bringing rain to the far west of the state and the Channel Country, both important grazing areas where rain is always welcome. Pity there’s too few cattle to benefit.
A certain Mr T Flannery will be very interested in this.