Essay by Eric Worrall
h/t Dr. Willie Soon; Murray Watt, Australia’s Emergency Management Minister, has suggested forecasting models might need updating because of climate change.
Labor orders review of weather warning systems after criticism of Bureau of Meteorology
BoM systems under scrutiny after ex-tropical cyclone Jasper and Christmas Day storms in Queensland’s south-east
Australian Associated Press
Sat 30 Dec 2023 14.05 AEDTThe Australian emergency management minister, Murray Watt, has ordered a review of weather warning systems after criticism of the Bureau of Meteorology.
…
When Jasper made landfall residents of the Cairns suburb of Holloways Beach reported only receiving major flood warnings after already being isolated.
On the Gold Coast, one of the hardest hit regions in south-east Queensland, the mayor, Tom Tate, said it was “unforgivable” that a weather warning went out to residents after Christmas Day storms had already passed through.
…
“The models we have traditionally used are having to change because the climate is changing,” he said.
…
Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/dec/30/labor-orders-review-of-weather-warning-systems-after-criticism-of-bureau-of-meteorology
Parts of Australia like the Far North, Sydney and the Gold Coast have been hammered by a series of severe storms, leading to flash floods and sadly a few casualties. Despite the December rainfall record being broken in some places, in Australia most of us call this kind of weather “Summer”, though of course the usual suspects have been quick to blame climate change.
What is unusual about this year is the apparent level of incompetence displayed by the BoM.
Not producing storm warnings until after the fact, if this is what happened, is unforgivable.
The Aussie BoM publishes time lapse precipitation maps, which most of the time make it easy to spot if you are about to be hit by a storm. You don’t need to be a weather genius to figure out that if you see a massive storm front bearing down on your current location, you are about to experience bad weather.
Perhaps the BoM knew the storm was coming, but during the holiday season BoM staff monitoring the weather had trouble finding a manager to sign off on issuing the storm alert?
If you click the the BoM weather radar link you might see a browser security warning – WUWT uses website security, but the BoM website does not support HTTPS website security. There is a remote possibility that a cybercriminal might exploit this lack of BoM HTTPS security to mount a man in the middle attack if you click the link. Obviously you need to make up your own mind about this risk, but I regularly use the BoM site, so far without any problems.
Despite this criticism of the apparent inability of the BoM to issue storm warnings until after the storm has struck, the official government position is we can completely trust BoM forecasts of what the weather will be like a hundred years from now.
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I find the BoM is excellent at predicting yesterday’s weather.
very droll. Even for predictions the next day, any one can get that right when its merely -same as today.
So take out all their predictions when its essentially the same weather recycled I ‘guesstimate’ that may they are right a third of the time. And please BoM or other weather services dont count forecasts for the days weather only made say mid morning 9am-10am as a ‘forecast’ at all.
Do you also accept that adjusting the temperatures in the past equally excellent?
BOM is the blight on the radar.
And yesterday’s temperature.
But it is getting harder because they have already homogenised the carp out of the record so are running out of wriggle room to keep the Australian warming trend alive.
Temperature across Australia is back to where it was in the 1980s.
“Despite this criticism of the apparent inability of the BoM to issue storm warnings until after the storm has struck, the official government position is we can completely trust BoM forecasts of what the weather will be like a hundred years from now.”
I can’t think of a government agency that gives forecasts, where that isn’t the case – not just the weather.
Here’s the BoM 2022 climate change forecast…
http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/
The problem with any government provided information is that the governments around the world have a problem with veracity.
They lie too!
Frequently and proudly.
And they censor the truth. See Brandon and the US deep state.
I guess the real problem here are the words
climate change' with all the woke ideology that comes with them. Whilst the BOM continues to exclusively use IPCC/AGW theory to input its climate change parameters instead of natural variables like the sun, oceans and clouds, it will never get forecasts to match reality. They can fiddle their temperature station readingstil the cows come home’ producing the warmest ever months, years etc, but they can’t continue to fake seasonal and annual forecasts because the public is onto them now.Eventually, they will get a proper technical audit and all this AGW nonsense will be expunged, and we can get back to normality and proper science methodology.
Exactly. They can’t update the forecast systems for ‘climate change’ because they have already done so, that is the problem and the reason for them being wildly inaccurate.
I find it useful to (a) look out a window several times each day. And (b) to look at satellite photos and winds (such as on Ventusky and NullSchool), and (c) understand your own region.
For example, as I write, there is a massive system spinning over the Aleutian Islands with a pressure of 27.3.
https://www.radar-live.com/p/atmospheric-pressure.html
This system is expected to impact British Columbia and Washington State on Friday (Pacific Coast date and time).
So, I went to town and bought groceries, bacon, beer, wine and so on, today. I moved firewood onto my patio.
I don’t know what resources you in AU have to supplement what the BOM tells you — or doesn’t tell you — but reading this post it appears their work isn’t fit for purpose.
When you can get a better weather forecast by looking at their automatic public precipitation radar website than the alerts they send out, there’s clearly a communication / management problem.
Always a management problem:
Because IF management were competent, the incompetents failing at preparing and/or providing the forecasts would have been removed and replaced by competent individuals.
And, of course, politicians are mainly to blame by:
Creating a deep state that cannot be fired for incompetence.
For selecting the incompetent management.
The climate crisis can do anything.
Now, it has even changed the laws of physics/meteorology that drive the atmosphere.
We need to change the equations in our weather models because 1 deg. C of global warming causes a different atmosphere that follows different physical laws.
We’ve known for over a decade that global warming causes global climate models to bust.
Now it’s weather models.
What’s next?
We never find out until AFTER it happens!
And governments are using these tools for guidance to spend tens of trillions to impose fake green energy based on promises that defy the laws of physics, energy and economics?
It figures!
The real green energy sources are the ones that have massively greened the planet up because of the law of photosynthesis and indisputable law of photosynthesis.
Beneficial CO2 has risen from around 290 ppm to 420 ppm.
The inconvenient truth about that and the fact that it’s directly responsible for feeding over a billion people on the planet has been censored.
But keeping the oceans from rising another foot this century is obviously much more important than feeding a billion people.
Not as defined by hijacked climate science and rewritten climate history which has been twisted to line up with climate politics to match self serving objectives.
Interesting is that one of the objectives is supposed to be helping the less developed countries.
Increasing Fossil feels are the quickest way to becoming developed country and to reduce poverty……..and green up the planet with the biggest gift that humans have given this planet…….releasing the beneficial CO2, building block for life that had been buried deeply underground.
Thats not just my opinion, ask life on this planet.
Would life prefer to be closer to the optimal level of CO2, which is double the current level?
Did life do better during Ice Ages or the Little Ice Age 200+ years ago or did life do better during the Holocene Climate OPTIMUM 9,000 to 6,000 years ago, which was 2 deg. C warmer than this in the higher latitudes with LESS Arctic Sea Ice?
Life says clearly that it would prefer the planet a bit warmer than it is right now.
“We’ve known for over a decade that global warming causes global climate models to bust.
Now it’s weather models.”
There’s no such thing as climate models. They are using weather models as climate models–they just run them into the future longer. Due to chaos, the horizon of predictability of weather models is probably no more than two weeks. Running a weather model beyond two weeks is folly and corrupt scientific nonsense.
Well said mike, fully agree with you. A warmer world would be better, however the next solar minima will be with us in a decade and then global cooling will continue once again, until it warms up again cyclically by mid century.
The last day with a SSN above 100 was Christmas day at 118. The SSN was under 60 for 4 days now, very low.
We are supposed to be near the solar maximum NOW. Very low activity for MONTHS now with occasional spikes but never above 200.
Second very low 1/2 cycle in a row. Is this shaping up to be a second double peak “maximum” like the last 1/2 cycle?
https://landscheidt.info/
If you have not read much about Landscheidt and the beginning of a somewhat VALID method of predicting solar activity, go there.
Funny how google required the whole of Beyond Landsceidt to be typed in and searched before providing this web site. I am through DuckDuckGo and have noticed times where searching through a base google browser gives vastly different results, but really?
The hardest thing to forecast for climateers is not the weather, particularly temperature, a hundred years from now, it’s what the temperature is going to be in 1950 a hundred years hence. They use an algorithm to continuously (daily, tiny amounts ) adjust past temperatures mainly to make the T° chart slope in conformity with “CO2 Control Knob Theory” (Yes Charlotte, there’s an app for that!).
They can’t simply raise present temperatures holus bolus because they are disciplined by UAH satellite temperatures and the fiddler’s know they would be ‘outed’ quickly. It does, of course, cause some weirding effects though. For example, to keep the warming marching on burdened by the 18 year long “Dreaded Pause” which takes time to erase, they have quietly begun chiseling down the 1998 el Niño high which they over-hyped at the time to make alarming claims – hottest this and that- which are now not true, and eventually anyone looking back at the climateering literature will find the old claims puzzlingly not showable by the …ahem data.”
“The future is certain, it is only the past that is unpredictable” – old Soviet joke.
And a good joke it is.
Of course the climate is changing, always has always will.
When it comes to tropical cyclones: “The average number of tropical cyclones inside the Australian region has dropped by around one cyclone per year in the most recent complete 30-year period, from 1991 to 2020. Severe tropical cyclones have also decreased from 5.5 per year in the 30 years ending in 2010 to 4.8 per year in the 30 years ending in 2020”. Link.
Perish the thought that human influence on the climate possibly had anything to do with a reduction in the number and intensity of tropical cyclones, it’s not supposed to work that way.
Time series graph: Australian regional tropical cyclones.
Climate trends for the Southern Hemisphere (Australia for example) are almost opposite to the Northern Hemisphere. The response in the SH is delayed due to the extent of the oceans and their thermal inertia. If you follow the sun, Australia is just past the peak extremes of climate – hot, dry summers and cool winters. Summers will be cooler and winters warmer.
The Northern Hemisphere is heading for drier summers and predominantly wetter winters. The high ground and high latitudes will get that increasing winter precipitation as snow. The snow will eventually form permanent ice that will progress south and down from the high ground.
Yep, a management failure to promulgate the warnings, not a forecasting failure in this case. The ACCESS model (The Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator ) on Windy.com does a reasonably good job for a few days in advance. (better than GFS 🙂 ) and certainly was predicting Jasper fairly accurately
This will put your minds at ease folks-
Experts warned El Niño was likely to bring Australia a hot, dry summer. What happened? | Australia weather | The Guardian
They clearly didn’t swirl the tea leaves properly…
I thought the Gruniad used bird dropping !
No, it’s the other way round, the Gruniad is used to collect bird droppings at the bottom of the cages.
No use for anything else.
“Well-organised” storms. Really? What happened, did they all join a union?
““We’ve had heatwaves, bushfires and floods happening together [in recent weeks],” she says. “Even if these events are not due to climate change, it is a glimpse of what we should be preparing for in the future.””
What the heck? Isn’t this what Aus should have been preparing for FOREVER? Since it has been happening in Aus FOREVER!! What an @ssh@t.
I have a solution, fire the management at BoM. Let us see if new people can do a better job. A storm is either there or it isn’t, if it’s there do your job and inform people. If it’s not there keep looking.
The feared President Reagan quote: “I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.”
Eliminate the whole BOM, fire them ALL.
Recreate the BOM from scratch. Any pseudoscientist who’s degree has ANYTHING to do with CGAW studies need not apply. Get back to basic meteorology, only.
Then go back and correct and publish in an easily searched database, all the PAST modified data to the actual TRUE records, As JM has been trying to do.
In fact the FIRST person hired should be JM.
Set them free from the government payroll and government scrutiny. Let them earn a crust from honest, useful employment.
The BoM is essentially the propaganda arm of the Labor party. The social agenda is high on their list.
BoM has had a horrific 15 months or so of wrong calls and walkbacks – I list 13 instances –
https://warwickhughes.com/agri16/BoM-wrong-calls2022-2023.html
See also the WA Climate chart showing the “Great Albo Cool and Wet Period” GACWP (named by me – guilty Mlord) – which may not have ended yet.
Usually BoM walkbacks are published by their faithful GreenLeft mates at the ABC – in this case Minister Watt is helping out BoM.
Great Albo wet period – too funny 🙂
IOW the alarmists want even more hype!
Does anyone recall my recent raves about ‘The Blob’ = that unofficial unspoken entity that self-creates inside huuuuuge bureaucracies?
Here it is in action: “”said it was “unforgivable” that a weather warning went out to residents after Christmas Day storms had already passed through.
Because if you ‘corner’ any member of that ‘blob’, any one individual, and question them on their motives and reasons for working inside Government, you will be regaled about ‘public service, duty, caring for others, wanting to help, self sacrifice, wishing the best for everyone and how they are willing to endure ‘low salaries’ and ‘poor working conditions’ in order to deliver all those goodnesses
The exact opposite is true. Working for Government is (In UK at least) an extremely well rewarded vocation, both during employment and esp during retirement with all the very best working conditions, offices, computers and infrastructure
And not very least, as in the UK, the average public servant now spends 35% of their time haha ‘working from home’ on top of all the most generous leave/holiday entitlements of anywhere.
And so you see the quote above:
It was Christmas time and despite all those claimed self-sacrifices, those lazy lying no-good sh!ts were all at home or away on holiday
It’s a good job weather and climate also do that innit………
The exact same thing happened in the UK with the Met Office and our most recent storm “Henk”
See the attached, from BBC here
NB: That ‘Tuesday morning‘ was = Boxing Day, =when everyone, esp all government workers, are at home, drunk, stupid, bloated and hungover or away on fossil powered foreign holidays
And they blame the storm itself that they didn’t see it coming.
Jeez, Any and all students of high-pressure ridges and katabatic heating could have seen Henk coming (and esp ‘developing’) from a week+ away. With their eyes closed.
Or these morons could just use radar to predict when storms will arrive. You know, like intelligent people do. Oh! Thats right, they are morons who do not know how to properly forecast weather. Idiots.
Otherwise known as being Michael Fish’ed.
The Australian BOM is not greatly interested in predicting disasters or saving people from them. Their main task and aim these days is directed to convincing people that Global Warming/Climate Change is an existential threat.