From Dr Roy Spencer’s Global Warming Blog
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
With the approaching El Nino superimposed upon a long-term warming trend, many high temperature records were established in September, 2023.
The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for September, 2023 was +0.90 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean. This is above the August 2023 anomaly of +0.70 deg. C, and establishes a new monthly high temperature record since satellite temperature monitoring began in December, 1978.
The linear warming trend since January, 1979 still stands at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.19 C/decade over global-averaged land).
Regional High Temperature Records for September, 2023
From our global gridpoint dataset generated every month, there are 27 regional averages we routinely monitor. So many of these regions saw record high temperature anomaly values (departures from seasonal norms) in September, 2023 that it’s easier to just list all of the regions and show how September ranked out of the 538 month satellite record:
Globe: #1
Global land: #1
Global ocean: #1
N. Hemisphere: #2
N. Hemisphere land: #1
N. Hemisphere ocean: #4
S. Hemisphere: #1
S. Hemisphere land: #1
S. Hemisphere ocean: #1
Tropics: #6
Tropical land: #2
Tropical ocean: #8
N. Extratropics: #2
N. Extratropical land: #1
N. Extratropical ocean: #4
S. Extratropics: #1
S. Extratropical land: #1
S. Extratropical ocean: #1
Arctic: #11
Arctic land: 7th
Arctic ocean: 65th
Antarctic: 15th
Antarctic land: 26th
Antarctic ocean: 14th
USA48: 144th
USA49: 148th
Australia: 12th
The full UAH Global Temperature Report, along with the LT global gridpoint anomaly image for September, 2023 and a more detailed analysis by John Christy, should be available within the next several days here.
Lower troposphere:
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
Middle troposphere:
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tmt/uahncdc_mt_6.0.txt
Tropopause:
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/ttp/uahncdc_tp_6.0.txt
Lower Stratosphere:
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tls/uahncdc_ls_6.0.txt
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
USA seems to have missed out on the slight warming, completely.
Roy, you usually put up a table of numbers… would be interesting to see where Australia ended up.
September was a strange month here, with warmer than usual periods and colder than usual periods.
I agree re the usual table of numbers and being able to see the data for Australia. All of the links provided end up with my browser not able to find the server.
Unfortunately, the Australians on this blog are unaware of / don’t care about the fact that their country’s most iconic animal is about to go extinct.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2021/09/21/australias-koala-population-drops-30-just-3-years/5796302001/#:~:text=Since%202018%2C%20the%20foundation%20estimates,32%2C065%20and%2057%2C920%20in%202021.
Nothing to do with “warming” (see chart)
And given the rain over the last few years.. nothing to do with dryness.
Yes the 2019 bushfires were tragic, mainly because of where they happened.
But again… bushfires are not at all “rare” in Australia.
Have you heard any ranting and raving about bushfires since 2019 ??
I can assure you that where I live, Koalas are not extinct .
Neighbours have a pair in the trees on their property that keep them awake at night 😉
Just a few issues with your chart:
Just to help you out, here’s the actual latest 23-years in Australia according to UAH (Oct 2000 – Sep 2023), with the obvious warming linear trend line included.
Just to help you out.. even with this recent NON-CO2 warming spike.
Explain how CO2 caused this cooling.
Still waiting for your estimate of how much warmer it must have been for trees to grow where there are now glaciers.
Don’t run away like a scared little child…. again !
You are so predictable.
You haven’t started that chart in Jan 2016; you’ve started it in February 2016 in order to avoid the big negative anomaly in Jan 2016 and thus maximise your statistically insignificant downslope.
You couldn’t lie straight in bed, could you, mate?
So we’ve gone from “23 years of no warming” to, what, seven-ish years of no warming. With much more warming to come.
Not exactly a ‘win’, is it?
None of which have anything to do with climate.
The IPCC agrees.
The IPCC has concluded that a signal of climate change has not yet emerged beyond natural variability for the following phenomena:
River floods
Heavy precipitation and pluvial floods
Landslides
Drought (all types)
Severe wind storms
Tropical cyclones
Sand and dust storms
Heavy snowfall and ice storms
Hail
Snow avalanche
Coastal flooding
Marine heat waves
I remember John Humphries BBC asking a little girly scientist if she was ‘scared’ by the 2016 El Niño peak. No, she was ‘concerned’. What can we expect from the scarists now?
When I see the alarmist arguments here I often wonder how many of the practice what they are proponents of?
How many only drive an EV or use public transportation exclusively?
How many recycle religiously?
How many avoid all clothing and materials produced using petroleum products?
How many have full electric homes?
How many refuse to fly?
How many refuse to buy anything in single use plastic containers?
My guess is that not a single damned one of them!
My favorite is vacation destinations/resorts describing their ‘sustainability practices’. LMAO!
‘Sustainable’ is NOT flying hundreds/thousands of miles for a week of self-indulgent luxury!
The US ski industry just won’t die like the “experts” have been claiming it would for the last 20 years!
Aren’t they forecasting a really bumper snow season this year in the USA. !
So, it is a couple of degrees warmer than when they were trying to scare us with the threat of a return to the ice age. I would call that a positive outcome.
In other news, looking out my window here in SLC I am seeing the first snow of the season on Mt. Olympus as a chilly dawn approaches.
Mark,
I hope for another big winter. This last one was EPIC.
The “hair on fire” people are rejoicing at the current upward trend. And when the temperatures go down, the rhetoric will still live, but the reality of a sudden temperature drop will be forgotten. It happened in 1998 and in 2016; no one is aware that the world temperature actually dropped.
We are lucky in one respect; this temperature increase did not occur at the same time as our peak solar insolation. If it had, we would have broken every temperature record in each state. As it is, the 1930’s are still the warmest years on record by state.
Given the trillion tons or so of seawater that was catapulted into the stratosphere by the Tonga volcano in January last year, this warming is not unexpected.
The arguments these people provide are so bad:
1) Ok it’s warming, but it’s good. It was warmer 100,000 years ago with some chart from an unknown source.
2) The U.S. (2% of the world) was warmer in the U.S. based on an outdated chart from 1999. I guess they aren’t aware of the adjustments or claim without evidence that such practice is fraudulent.
3) Global cooling is about to arrive. I’ve been hearing this since 2006. Still no cooling. The chances of cooling are about even less likely than me going outside and being struck by lighting on a sunny day.
4) Ad hominem
I’m a leftist if I disagree. Lol keep the laughs coming WUWT.
Anything else?
Mods: don’t forget to update the UAH chart on the side bar lads. It’s still on August.
Still on August re the UAH data, boys. 2 days since the UAH update…
I must say, the latest chart is a bad look for a global warming ‘skeptic’ site.
Let me guess: you are going to concoct some excuse to remove the UAH chart from your side-bar. If not this month then soon (because it’s about to get a lot worse).
We’ll see.
Indeed. But on the plus side, this likely means there will be an even longer pause going out at least 10 years. The beautiful cycle of denial starts all over :).
Yes, each new temperature spike eventually begets yet another wonderful, if short-lived, ‘pause’. It happens again and again, yet higher and higher the overall temperatures rise.
Where has LordM vanished off to with his latest monthly ‘pause’ update? I hope he’s not unwell, etc; but otherwise it’s pretty pathetic to start a series like that and then scarper without explanation when the stats go against you. Mind you, he has done it before.
Re the UAH side-bar, still there but still August.
Nearly 3 days now…. Supposed to be updated by the 3rd and reported here on the 2nd.
It’s become compulsive viewing.
I’m not sure how UAH calculates anomalies, but be careful how you make conclusions for surface stations. There is no control that there are not rolling locations that raise the growth rates. IOW, 10 stations may have high temps in one month and a set of different stations the next month.
I think it surprising that the warmists can’t show stations with 100 years of data that show the serious warming they claim. I also think it interesting that no one provides the simple standard deviation (not SEM) of the data used to calculate the anomalies.
They simply average temperatures for each month between 1991 and 2020 then subtract the latest monthly value from that.
They do. There are thousands of them.
I do understand what an anomaly is dude. Can you explain why averaging ΔT, a very short term rate, might suffer from statistical problems?
You know, if there are thousands of stations that have outrageous warming, why are none ever shown here as evidence of catastrophic warming? Heck, even you should be able to find some to post.
You do “smug” very well. Have you given any thought to how you will frame your apology if you turn out to be wrong?
Is there a graph anywhere showing the affect on global temperature from the decreasing amounts of anthropogenic Sulphur Dioxide? Is there any change in the contribution of Tmin and Tmax to the global temperature which should show a fingerprint for SO2 reduction leading to higher Tmax like we’ve seen in Europe recently?
Just noticed: in the August update, the maximum temperature anomaly on the UAH y-axis was +0.9C.
With September having already reached that value it has now risen to +1.1C.
I think it will go higher again in the coming months.
On that point, Roy Spencer has (unusually) updated his monthly UAH post with a rather apt and honest image.
It is good to see more focus here on the growing support for the identification of ‘steps’ in the UAH global temperature trend subsequent to ‘very strong’ El Niño events. The possible differentiation between these events and less strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events may be very important. For example, since 1950 there have been three very strong El Niño events and no very strong La Niña events at all. If such stronger events were the primary driver of increased global temperatures, that alone could have provided 0.9C warming since 1950. This would also explain the balanced effect of less strong positive (El Niño) and negative (La Niña) events during the pauses (e.g.2001-2014).
I like to keep in mind the following NOAA statement: “The El Niño / La Niña climate pattern that alternately warms and cools the eastern tropical Pacific is the 800-pound gorilla of Earth’s climate system. On a global scale, no other single phenomenon has a greater influence on whether a year will be warmer, cooler, wetter, or drier than average.”
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/slow-slosh-warm-water-across-pacific-hints-el-ni%C3%B1o-brewing
(h/t Bob Tisdale for the link)
The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is the rolling three-month average of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the Niño-3.4 region in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is quite instructive, in my opinion, to look at the measured SST values instead of simply focussing on the ONI (anomaly) values derived from them. In the plot below, the monthly SST values are shown by the red line and the climatology (average SST over a 30-year base period) is shown in blue. The difference between the two curves reflects the monthly anomaly values, which are then averaged over three months to obtain the ONI value.
A number of interesting observations can be made on the basis of this plot (which can be shown back to 1950, but loses clarity with too much compressed data). Some points:
A key difference between very strong El Niño events (1997-1998 and 2015-2016) and all La Niña events is the fact that former show virtually no evidence of seasonal cooling, with less of a sharp peak and high SSTs lasting many months. The narrow peak seen in the ONI data for these events is a consequence of the anomaly values reflecting the absence of seasonal cooling. This observation is entirely consistent with the view that upwelling nutrient-rich, cold waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are significantly reduced (effectively ‘shut-off’) during major El Niño events (as the Peruvian fishermen well know). In contrast, all La Niña events show some warming between annual low SST values.
Final point: the latest SST data alone (including September) do not indicate that a very strong El Niño event is under development with SSTs still 0.5C or more below the two earlier major events (but I don’t do forecasts!).
Between 1950-2022 the overall trend in ENSO is exactly zero. That’s because it is, as the ‘O’ in ENSO suggests, an oscillation. An oscillation is a ‘regular variation in magnitude or position about a central point’.
The temperature influences of El Niño and La Niña events usually level out over a period of a couple of decades. We have just been through a 3-4 year period of cooling ‘treble-dip’ La Niñas. This has masked the on-going warming to some extent. The emergence from this cooling influence into the upcoming natural El Niño warming is just a natural correction of the system.
The most likely cause of the recent massive temperature increases (in my humble….) is not some underwater volcano that erupted nearly 2-years ago; it’s simply the correction of the natural ENSO system superimposed on the man-made warming trend that the scientists have been warning us about for decades.
Much more to come.
“Between 1950-2022 the overall trend in ENSO is exactly zero.” That is because it has been de-trended.
”That’s because it is, as the ‘O’ in ENSO suggests, an oscillation.” And the “I” in index, as in Oceanic Niño Index, is because it is based on anomalies.
The SST data that I show are actual temperature measurements, not anomalies and not de-trended.
But your suggestion is that since 1950 there has been more El Nino (warming) than La Nina (cooling) in the ENSO data. It’s not the case. The NOAA ENSO data are here. If you tally the annual data up and perform a linear test you get a trend of -0.00C per decade over the whole period. El Nino has contributed no net heat on average over the period of record, otherwise there would be a warming trend in the data.
The ONI data have been de-trended, as I have already pointed out to you.
The hype is developing on LinkedIn….
We’re now into the 6th Oct (GMT) and the UAH September update was reported on 2nd October, and the WUWT side-bar says the UAH monthly update will be by the 3rd of the month. It was reported here at WUWT on Oct 2nd; the same day it was reported by UAH (via Roy Spencer) but… still no September UAH monthly update (as of 02:22 hrs, GMT). Still on August….?
The 7th October approaches rapidly – still no update on the UAH chart in the side-bar, which still shows August.
So much for “data updated by 3rd of the month”, lol! (Unless we don’t like the look of it!)
Would you like to apologize?