The Week That Was: 2023-06-24 (June 24, 2023)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools.”— Herbert Spencer, (English polymath, 1820-1903)
Number of the Week: Minus 102% of operating margin
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: This TWTW will begin with the four myths common to the US and other western countries presented by economist Bruce Everett at the Conservative Princeton Association meeting on May 27.
The stunning speech by UN Secretary General António Guterres in which he claims that the use of fossil fuels is “incompatible with human survival” will be discussed. Guterres claimed that “The problem is not simply fossil fuel emissions… It’s fossil fuels – period.” Rather than dwell on the shoddy science that is characteristic of the UN and the reports of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), TWTW will emphasize the importance of fossil fuels in bringing much of humanity out of subsistence living and dire poverty.
Roy Spencer presents actual temperature trend data from 1973 to 2022 in the US Corn Belt showing that the doom and gloom forecasts of climate models are false. TWTW fills in with actual crop yields world-wide.
Formed to give member nations valuable information during the Arab Oil Embargo, the International Energy Agency (IEA) no longer provides reliable information on energy use and realistic forecasts. Its 2021 report “Net Zero by 2050, A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector” is fantasy. Several groups provided competent critiques of this incompetent report.
TWTW questions why so many organizations call unproven energy generation or energy saving devices “smart.” A couple of examples are discussed.
Judith Curry gives her views on children’s litigation against the state of Montana. Meanwhile, Multnomah County, Oregon, sued 17 oil companies claiming that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions were responsible for a heat dome that killed dozens of people. The county officials cite as “proof” a study by World Weather Attribution. Econometrician Ross McKitrick has shown that such studies lack any credible scientific foundation for establishing probabilities.
3M has settled for billions for contaminating public water systems with “forever chemicals.” TWTW reviews the rigor of the science for claiming these inert chemicals are toxic.
Companies in China receive subsidies from Western groups to manufacture energy saving devices. Some years ago, it was bicycles for ride sharing. Now, it is electric vehicles for ride sharing. Just like the bicycles which were overproduced for subsidies and junked, the electric vehicles are being overproduced and junked. “The China Show” has an interesting video of such vehicles.
Showing that the West can be generous with subsidies, governments in the US and Canada have granted extensive subsidies to manufacturers of electric vehicles. Two examples are discussed.
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Four Myths: In the video “Why Climate Change is Not an Emergency” economist Bruce Everett discusses four commonly believed myths.
Myth # 1 is that renewable energy is less expensive than fossil fuels. Everett states that this common myth ignores the acreage that must be used for wind or solar. Further electricity systems must be dispatchable, that is providing electricity when needed. But current systems have no, or little storage.
Here TWTW adds that for the UK system Paul Homewood has shown that sometimes wind power overproduces, and wind operators must be paid to curtail generation. But more seriously, when wind produces no electricity at all, and power must be imported or reliable power used, and wind operators are not required to pay for their failure to generate electricity. Reliable power from intermittent sources would requires an expensive, well-maintained backup system. As Professor of Energy Policy at the University of Oxford Dieter Helm states about the UK system: The Grid was not built for decentralized, nonreliable generation.
Myth # 2 is that the global community has united to reduce CO2 emissions. Everett destroys this myth by showing that, although for 2000 to 2020 the EU and US reduced emissions, China tripled emissions and the rest of the world increased emissions by 50%. Contrary to what many Western leaders seem to believe, the West is not the world.
For example, according to the latest EU figures from EDGAR – Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research European Commission, 2022. In 2021 in millions of metric tons: the EU27 generated 2775 million metric tons of CO2 or 7.33% of the world’s total of human emissions; the US 4752 tons or 12.6%; China 12,466 or 32.9%; and India 2649 or 7% and may exceed that of the EU27 this year. Except for Canada and a few other places, the rest of the world cares little about what the EU27 and the US believes.
Myth # 3 is that carbon dioxide has made natural disasters worse. Everett uses data from Our World in Data: Annual Deaths per 100,000 from Natural Catastrophes, 1900-2020. Everett shows that in the 1920s an average of 523,892 people died per year; in the 2010s 45,274; and in the 2020s 12,896. There are multiple reasons for this decline, but CO2 is not making natural disasters worse. [Some trial lawyers don’t wish to hear this.]
Myth # 4 is The Moonshot Fallacy, “If we can put a man on the moon, we can…” Everett states corollary fallacies include “R&D can produce whatever we want” and “Scaling up inferior technologies improves them” [also, claimed to be economies of scale]. Everett goes through false promises of the past and states similar promises are being made for batteries and carbon capture. [Similar to the Moonshot Fallacy is the Manhattan Project Fallacy: If we spend enough money, we can do anything.].
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Energy Issues – Non-US, and https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2022 for the EDGAR data.
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It’s Fossil Fuels: The May 8, 2021, TWTW discussed extreme poverty and the tremendous income growth in East and South Asia, which has resulted in a remarkable drop in extreme poverty there over the last thirty-five years. As stated above, in the process China and other countries in Asia became the largest users of fossil fuels and emitters of CO2 in the world.
The remarkable rise from poverty to prosperity first began in the UK, and it is useful to recount what occurred there. As stated by Our World in Data.org.:
“Economic history is a very simple story. It is a story that has only two parts:
“The first part is the very long time in which the average person was very poor and human societies achieved no economic growth to change this. Incomes remained almost unchanged over a period of several centuries when compared to the increase in incomes over the last 2 centuries. Life too changed remarkably little. What people used as shelter, food, clothing, energy supply, and their light source stayed very similar for a very long time. Almost all that ordinary people used and consumed in the 17th century would have been very familiar to people living a thousand or even a couple of thousand years earlier. Average incomes (as measured by GDP per capita) in England between the year 1270 and 1650 were £1,051 when measured in today’s prices.
“The second part is much shorter, it encompasses only the last few generations and is radically different from the first part, it is a time in which the income of the average person grew immensely – from an average of £1051, incomes per person per year increased to over £30,000; a 29-fold increase in prosperity. This means an average person in the UK today has a higher income in two weeks than an average person in the past had in an entire year. Since the total sum of incomes is the total sum of production this also means that the production of the average person in two weeks today is equivalent to the production of the average person in an entire year in the past. There is just one truly important event in the economic history of the world, the onset of economic growth. This is the one transformation that changed everything. [Boldface added]
“As this chart [not shown here] of total GDP in the England over seven centuries shows, the increase of the total output of the UK economy grew by even larger extent, because not only average incomes increased since the onset of the Industrial Revolution, but the number of people in the country increased as well.”
“The economy before economic growth: The Malthusian trap.
“The pre-growth economy was a zero-sum-game: Living standards were determined by the size of the population. In the previous chart, we saw that it was only after 1650 that living standards in the UK did start to increase for a sustained period. Before the modern era of economic growth, the economy worked very differently. Not technological progress, but the size of the population determined the standards of living.
“If you go back to the chart of GDP per capita in England [see link] you see that early in the 14th century there was a substantial spike in the level of income. Incomes increased by around a third in a period of just a few years. This is the effect that the plague – the Black Death – had on the incomes of the English. The plague killed almost half(!) of the English population. The population declined from 8 million to 4.3 million in the three years after 1348. We even see it in the chart for the world population.
“But those that survived the epidemic were materially much better off afterward. The economy was a brutal zero-sum game, and the death of your neighbor was to the benefit of those that did survive.
“This happened primarily because farmers now achieved a higher output. While farmers before the plague had to use agricultural land that was less suited for farming, after the population decline, they could farm on the most productive areas of the island.
“In the very long time in which humanity was trapped in the Malthusian economy it was births and deaths that determined incomes. More births, lower incomes. More deaths, higher incomes.”
The essay discusses the plague, then continues with:
“It is only after 1650 that the English economy breaks out of the Malthusian Trap and that incomes are not determined by the size of the population anymore. For the period after 1650 we see that both the population and the income per person are growing. The economy is not a zero-sum game anymore; economic growth made it a positive-sum game. [Boldface added]
“When Malthus raised the concerns about population growth in 1798, he was wrong about his time and the future, but he was indeed right in his diagnosis of the dynamics of his past. The world before Malthus was Malthusian and population increases were associated with declining nutrition, declining health, and declining incomes. The world after Malthus became increasingly less Malthusian. What Malthus did not foresee was that the increasing output of the economy would decouple from the change of the population so that the output available for all will increase over a long period. This decoupling of income and population is shown in the chart. [See link below]
“Technological change in the pre-growth economy
“Technological innovation that increases productivity is the key to increased prosperity. But there were technological breakthroughs before the 17th century. Windmills, irrigation technology, and also non-technical novelties, especially the new crops from the New World. Why did these not lead to sustained economic growth?
“What happened as a consequence of these innovations were indeed increases in productivity, and the output increases led to increased prosperity. But only for a short time. Improvements in technology had a different effect on the Malthusian pre-growth economy. They raised living standards only temporarily and instead raised the size of the population permanently. The economic historian Gregory Clark sums it up crisply: “In the preindustrial world, sporadic technological advance produced people, not wealth.”
“Technological improvements lead to larger, but not richer populations. If this analysis of the pre-growth economy is true, then we would expect to see a positive correlation between productivity and the density of the population.”
The essay continues demonstrating the benefits of increasing prosperity with increasing productivity. Now, the UN Secretary General and many Western leaders are railing against the use of fossil fuels which greatly enhanced the well-being of humanity? Other than nuclear, there is no alternative to fossil fuels that can be universally applied. Hydropower is geographically restricted. The behavior of these politicians is unconscionable.
Of course, in our modern world with cars, trucks, trains, airplanes, central heating, air conditioning, lighting available at the flick of a switch, radio, TV, the internet, and hundreds of other conveniences, we use more energy per capita than our forebears of the 1700s. But how much more? In the US, we use not hundreds of times as much, not tens of times as much, but only about 3.5 times as much energy per capita as did people in Ben Franklin’s time. Such is the result of thousands of improvements in efficiency, all motivated by the desire to cut expenditures and increase profits.
See links under Defending the Orthodoxy and Seeking a Common Ground.
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Not Starving: Former NASA scientist Roy Spencer demonstrates that the models the UN IPCC relies on are incapable of accurate forecasting of temperatures in the 12-state US Corn Belt. Both the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the US Department of Agriculture rely on actual data, not global climate models. Despite the war in Ukraine, which the UN is unable to stop, the world food situation is good. There may be local problems due to weather conditions, but production of cereals, wheat, coarse grains, and rice are rising modestly. They will meet consumption requirements and stocks will remain high at over 850 million metric tons. As Spencer writes:
“This kind of sanity check is needed because efforts to change U.S. energy policy are based upon climate model predictions, which are often wildly out of line with observed history. This is why environmentalists emphasize models (which can show dramatic change) over actual observations (which are usually unremarkable).”
Yet we see so-called “scientific reports” claiming dire needs such as one published by Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) that states, without any physical evidence, that:
“Feeding the growing global population of approximately 2 billion by 2050 requires a profound transformation of the current agriculture system.”
See links under Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
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Global Energy Disaster? The website of the International Energy Agency (IEA) states its mission is:
“The IEA works with governments and industry to shape a secure and sustainable energy future for all.”
Its May 2021 report “Net Zero by 2050, A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector” was reviewed by several groups and was shown to be a “green mirage.” When it came out, TWTW thought it too simplistic for detailed review, it ignored significant complications and assumed that technologies that don’t exist will appear. Nonetheless, the influence of the report grew. Rupert Darwall writes:
“Two years ago, efforts by climate activists and Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investors to block investment in oil and gas production by Western companies appeared to have received a seal of approval from no less an authority than the International Energy Agency (IEA), when it published Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector. As a result, attempts to achieve net zero carbon emissions (NZE) by 2050 became central to the “E” in ESG and the IEA’s net zero roadmap has come to define the NZE baseline for energy companies.
“For this reason, the RealClear Foundation asked the Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. (EPRINC) to conduct a forensic analysis of the IEA’s major reports on net zero and assess the likely economic impact of a cessation of investment in new oil and gas fields. EPRINC’s analysis conclusively demonstrates that the IEA’s assumptions are unrealistic, internally inconsistent, and often support the case for increased hydrocarbon fuel production. In reality, the IEA’s net zero roadmap is a green mirage that will dramatically increase energy costs, devastate Western economies, and increase human suffering.”
The report was largely written by energy research analysist Batt Odgerel. The assumptions in the IEA report are:
- “All countries must cooperate toward net zero emissions from 2021. (China alone built two coal [power] plants per week in 2022.)
- The historical average rate of annual energy-intensity improvements must nearly triple throughout the next decade.
- Primary energy supply equal to the size of the current OECD demand must be removed through efficiency and electrification by 2050.
- Global final energy consumption supplied by a single form of energy—electricity—rises from less than 20% in 2021 to about 50% in 2050.
- The share of all hydrocarbons (oil, gas, coal) in global primary supply decreases from about four-fifths in 2021 to less than one-fifth in 2050. Hydrocarbon supply drops by 30% between 2021 and 2030; this decrease was 5% in 2019–20 (during the pandemic).
- GDP growth is an assumed input, not modeled output. The same growth rates are applied to all IEA scenarios.
- Decreasing oil and gas prices are assumed, despite falling production.
- High CO2 prices are assumed for all regions, including the poorest regions.
- Decreasing costs of renewables and low-carbon technologies are assumed. The capital cost of technologies such as hydrogen electrolyzers reduces by nearly 80% in less than a decade.
- Massive technological breakthroughs are required. ‘About half of the emissions reductions in 2050 come from technologies at prototype or demonstration stages today.’ Of the 503 technologies that are important for net zero, 326 (almost 65%) are currently at the ‘demonstration’ or lower stages.
- Countries must adopt mandated behavioral changes such as reducing motorway speed limits, setting room temperatures within a narrow range, and limiting long-haul flights.” [Boldface added]
Ignoring the extreme negative impact this transition will have on world prosperity, the report assumes a rosy future with critical energy needs provided by unproven technology advances with unknown costs.
No wonder after reviewing the critique, Manhattan Contrarian Francis Menton wrote:
“As yet another example of a bureaucracy gone completely nuts, consider the International Energy Agency. IEA started out in the 1970s as a consortium of Western nations organized to counteract the oil price shocks imposed by OPEC in those years. That seemed reasonable enough. But somewhere along the line, gradually, the mission, let us say, evolved. Today, IEA is fairly described as a center of advocacy for elimination of fossil fuels from the world’s energy supply.”
Contrary to the fanciful claims of the UN, the EIA, and many western countries, there is no climate crisis. China and South Asia know this and will ignore the Western screams. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Smart Propaganda? These efforts have led to the gullible mass media adopting the term that unproven new technologies are “smart” even if it is fantasy. See links under Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine and Energy Issues – Non-US.
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Knew What? The claims that “Exxon knew” continue to produce lawsuits against oil companies and their subsidies. Beginning in 1859, John Tyndall conducted a number of experiments using early spectroscopy to answer the question, given its distance from the Sun, why the Earth is warm enough to support life. He discovered certain gases, which he named “greenhouse gases” blocked the loss of heat to space. The most important gas is water vapor. No doubt, competent scientists studying this issue knew this. What Exxon and others did not know is the extent to which incompetent scientists would twist certain procedures and techniques, including computer modeling, to produce results that are not supported by physical evidence but call the results science. Unfortunately, politicians and academicians have picked up on this fad.
The latest lawsuits resulting from this fad include Held v. Montana. Discussing the lawsuit Judith Curry writes:
“My reflections on the Held v Montana Climate Lawsuit – the inside story, my written expert report and why I didn’t testify at the trial. Don’t believe the PR about this case from Our Children’s Trust, which the mainstream media has accepted uncritically.”
Another lawsuit involves Multnomah County, Oregon, which is suing 17 oil companies, claiming that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions were responsible for a heat dome that killed dozens of people. The county officials cite as “proof” a 2021 study by World Weather Attribution. Econometrician Ross McKitrick has shown that such studies lack any credible scientific foundation for establishing probabilities, (see TWTW, Jan 1, 2022). To its credit, the journal Climate Dynamics published McKitrick’s article after seeking comments from Allen and Tett, the authors of the key 1999 study producing this misunderstanding of probability theory. In February of this year Ken Haapala asked McKitrick whether if he knew of any rebuttals to his paper. He knew of none.
Now we have 3M settling for billions of dollars on litigation claiming that chemically inert per-polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) “forever chemicals” had contaminated public waterways Judge “Napoli said that he would be largely adhering to the results of the “C8 Science Panel” — completed in 2012 following the settlement of a PFAS exposure case in Parkersburg, W.Va.”
According to the C8 Science Panel web post:
“One part of the Settlement was the creation of a Science Panel, consisting of three epidemiologists, to conduct research in the community in order to evaluate whether there is a probable link between PFOA exposure and any human disease. A ‘probable link’ in this setting is defined in the Settlement Agreement to mean that given the available scientific evidence, it is more likely than not that among class members a connection exists between PFOA exposure and a particular human disease.”
We are left to wonder how “forever chemicals,” chemicals that are so chemically stable that they do not break down either in the environment or the digestive tracks of living species, can somehow chemically interact with the human body in some harmful way.
This is a long way from the rigorous statistical science that went into determining that frequent inhaling of hot cigarette smoke was a major contributor to lung cancer and strokes. See links under Litigation Issues and http://www.c8sciencepanel.org/prob_link.html.
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Keep Subsidizing: About ten years ago, companies in China were receiving such generous subsidies from Western organization to manufacture bicycles for ride-sharing that they continued to manufacture them, even if they were not used. This resulted in mountains of unused bicycles in dumps.
Based on videos, it appears that the same is happening to ride-sharing electric automobiles (EVs) which are winding up registered, unused, and abandoned in fields in China. Will this happen in the US and Canada as they go through their subsidy “trade wars”? See links under Subsidies and Mandates Forever and Article # 2.
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD – THE JACKSON
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving. Senators Schumer and Manchin won in 2022.
The voting will close on June 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. The awardee will be announced at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness on July 7 to 9.
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Number of the Week: Minus 102% of operating margin. According to the Wall Street Journal:
“Ford isn’t in financial danger now, but its EV investments are squeezing profits and forcing layoffs. The auto maker last year lost $3 billion on EV sales. In the first three months of this year, its EVs posted a negative 102% operating margin, meaning losses exceeded sales revenue.”
Think of this. Not only is Ford losing money on every EV it sells; but the costs of manufacturing EVs are more than double the gross sales revenue. The difference is made up by government subsidies. Is financial irresponsibility Washington’s way to reduce inflation?
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Why Climate Change is Not an Emergency
Video: Patrick Moore, William Happer, and Bruce Everett, Conservative Princeton Association Digest, June 11, 2023 (May 27) [H/t Stephen Whelan]
youtu.be/L_Kc_r3cdH0
EPRINC Report Shows That IEA Net Zero Roadmap Is a Green Mirage
By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Energy, June 20, 2023
A Critical Assessment of the IEA’s Net Zero Scenario, ESG, and the Cessation of Investment in New Oil and Gas Fields
By Odgerel, Pugliaresi, and Lynch, Energy Policy Foundation, June 2023
Link to: Net Zero by 2050, A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector
By Staff, IEA, May 2021
A Comprehensive Critique Of Net Zero Fantasies
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, June 22, 2023
A climatologist looks at history, or, Maunder Maximum
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 21, 2023
“Dr. John Maunder, President of the Commission for Climatology of the World Meteorological Organization from 1989 to 1997 and a world-renowned climatologist, so yes, he is a ‘climate scientist’, has published a book called Climate Change: A Realistic Perspective: The fall of the weather dice and the butterfly effect, and in it he demonstrates in no uncertain terms the reality of the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age.”
“We note that Maunder is now retired, which means he is free to say what he thinks and no longer has to stick to the professional party line.”
Clintel Report: IPCC snow job on snow cover
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 21, 2023
“As Clintel notes, whenever there’s a genuine area of controversy you can tell which side the IPCC is going to push simply by looking at who they pick to write the chapter.”
Defending the Orthodoxy
Watch: UN Chief claims fossil fuels are ‘incompatible with human survival’
By Admin, Climate Depot, Via WUWT, June 18, 2023
Video: https://twitter.com/fossiltreaty/status/1669398794771808256
Link to AP article: UN chief says fossil fuels ‘incompatible with human survival,’ calls for credible exit strategy
By Frank Jordans, AP, June 15, 2023
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Forecasting fires with SMOS
By Staff Writers, Paris (ESA) Jun 15, 2023
Link to paper: Accounting for fuel in fire danger forecasts: the fire occurrence probability index (FOPI)
By Francesca Di Giuseppe, Environmental Research Letters, May 26, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Does climate change mean CO2-caused change?]
Grattan Institute: Australia Should Shut Down Domestic Gas to Hit Net Zero
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 21, 2023
Questioning the Orthodoxy
German Scientist Fritz Vahrenholt Attributes Part Of Modern Warming To “The Decrease In Clouds”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, June 17, 2023
In Search of the “Greenhouse Signal” in the 1990s (and when did they know?)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, June 21, 2023
Insuring against success
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 21, 2023
“Infamously including endless housing developments on floodplains where, amazingly, there are then floods that even more amazingly get blamed on climate change by people who can’t parse the portmanteau word floodplain and see that it’s a plain that floods.”
“Stranded Assets”: Who Will Have The Last Laugh?
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, June 19, 2023
Claims of interspecies hanky-panky have unfairly sullied polar bear & Neanderthal reputations
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, June 21, 2023
“But does their interpretation of the genetic data represent reality or does it simply fit the authors’ preferred but false narrative that climate change is to blame for recent hybridization events and therefore likely to happen more often in a warmer world?”
Energy and Environmental Review: June 19, 2023
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, June 19, 2023
After Paris!
COP28 To List Delegate Fossil Fuel Affiliations
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 20, 2023
“Personally, I think this is a positive step, it will streamline the process of COP conference oil companies handing cash to environmental causes. Climate campaigners will know straight away who to approach for cash to finance their organisation’s expedition to the next COP conference by reading the affiliation list, they won’t have to ask potentially embarrassing questions.”
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Al Gore’s Hypocrisy Knows No Bounds
By Vijay Jayaraj, Daily Caller, June 21, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Depends on how you count, gross or per capita.]
Seeking a Common Ground
Economic Growth
By Max Roser, OurWorldInData.org. 2013
The Modern World Can’t Exist Without These Four Ingredients. They All Require Fossil Fuels
By Vaclav Smil, Time, May 12, 2022
“And beyond these four material pillars [Cement, steel, plastics, and ammonia for fertilizer] new and highly energy-intensive material dependencies are emerging, and electric cars are their best example A typical lithium car battery weighing about 450 kilograms contains about 11 kilograms of lithium, nearly 14 kilograms of cobalt, 27 kilograms of nickel, more than 40 kilograms of copper, and 50 kilograms of graphite—as well as about 181 kilograms of steel, aluminum, and plastics.
Models v. Observations
Canada’s 2001 Climate Predictions Revisited
Video, John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 12, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Systemic bias in Canadian climate models. If governments don’t know what is happening, they cannot possibly develop sound policies to attain their goals or targets. Are humans responsible for climate change. Twenty years of failed predictions.]
‘Global Warming Has Begun, Expert Tells Senate’ (1988 exaggerations vs. today)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, June 23, 2023
Changing Weather
New Study: 21st Century Precipitation Trends Have Become Less Intense Globally
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, June 19, 2023
Link to latest paper: Climatology and changes in internal intensity distributions of global precipitation systems over 2001–2020 based on IMERG
By Yan Zhang, Runze Li, and Kaicun Wang, Journal of Hydrology, May 2023
From abstract: “This study uses the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) data during 2001–2020 to investigate the internal intensity distributions of global precipitation systems, by analyzing the climatology and changes in the radial intensity distributions and the core-region intensity of precipitation systems.”
“The results also show regional differences, with decreased core-region intensity over most tropical regions and increased core-region intensity over most subtropical regions.”
The Great Storm That Could Have Sunk D-Day
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 19, 2023
A century of high and low snowfall extremes in the United States
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 21, 2023
From the CO2Science Archive:
Summer Solstice Snow and Cold over the Pacific Northwest
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, June 20, 2023
1923 – Earth Drying Up
By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 23, 2023
“One hundred years ago scientists said the earth was drying up, and the only way we could save ourselves was by building massive irrigation canals like the Martians did.”
1917 Heatwave Caused By “sins of the people”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 22, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Have we advanced?]
Changing Climate – Cultures & Civilizations
Climate change likely led to violence in early Andean populations
By Staff Writers, Davis CA (SPX) Jun 18, 2023
Link to paper: Climate change intensified violence in the south-central Andean highlands from 1.5 to 0.5 ka
By Snyder and Haas, Cambridge University Press, June 5, 2023
“‘Our findings reinforce the idea that people living in already marginal environments are the most likely to be hit hardest by climate change,’ he said. ‘Archaeological research can help us predict how best to handle the challenges faced by people in precarious positions in a rapidly changing climate.’”
[SEPP Comment: Will CO2 fertilization lead to less conflict? The article confuses carbon dioxide with conflict.]
Changing Seas
Spike in ocean heat stuns scientists: Have we breached a climate tipping point?
By Jeff Berardelli, The Hill, June 18, 2023
“A shocking visual shared on Twitter earlier this month is prompting many to ask whether this recent surge is evidence that human-caused heating has propelled the climate past a tipping point.”
[SEPP Comment: To The Hill, tweets are scientific research?]
Why Are The Seas Warming?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 19, 2023
“What does have a major impact is the power of the sun. And according to Prof Ole Humlum, solar irradiance, effectively the amount of energy emitted by the sun, rose steadily through the 20thC, although there is no data since 2014:”
“Instead of demonising fossil fuels, we should be trying to understand these natural forces first.”
Unprecedented effrontery
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 21, 2023
“OK then, government-funded media dudes, if CO2 the ‘warming gas’ is at its highest level in 2 million years, why isn’t temperature?”
Claim: We’ve Pumped So much Groundwater that We’ve Nudged the Earth’s Spin
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, June 16, 2023
Link to paper “Drift of the Earth’s pole confirms groundwater depletion as a significant contributor to global sea level rise 1993-2010”
By Ki-Weon Seo, et al. Geophysical Research Letters, June 15, 2023
Catch-22: Scientific communication failures linked to faster-rising seas
By Saul Elbein, The Hill, June 19, 2023
Link to paper: Communicating future sea-level rise uncertainty and ambiguity to assessment users
By Robert E. Kopp, et al. Nature Climate Change, June 19, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Make false claims with greater certainty?]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Antarctic ice shelves experienced only minor changes in surface melt since 1980
By Staff Writers, Boulder CO (SPX), Jun 22, 2023
Link to paper: Quantifying Antarctic-Wide Ice-Shelf Surface Melt Volume Using Microwave and Firn Model Data: 1980 to 2021
By Alison F. Banwell, et al. Geophysical Research Letters, June 21, 2023
From plain language summary: “Our modeled melt days show good agreement with the satellite observations of both total days and the variability from year-to-year, giving us confidence in the model’s ability to also simulate realistic temporal and spatial variations in meltwater volumes. We find a strong non-linear relationship between the number of melt days and meltwater volumes each summer. We also find that the highest meltwater volumes are produced on the Peninsula, reaching a peak in the 1992/1993 and 1994/1995 austral summers. Across all ice shelves, SNOWPACK calculates a small, but significant, decreasing trend in both annual melt days and meltwater production volume over the 41 years.”
Antarctic ice shelves are melting slower than they were 40 years ago
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 23, 2023
[SEPP Comment: See links above, good graphics in Nova’s article.]
Acidic Waters
Invitation to Visit Mass Coral Bleaching, and see the Fishes
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, June 24, 2023
“The feature image is by Toby and shows a school of Humphead parrot fish. These are coraliferous fish; with each Humphead eating about 6 tonnes of coral each year — a school of them (typically they hang around in groups of 30) eat about as much coral as all the coral that is replanted at great expense each year to Australian taxpayers.”
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Epic Fail in America’s Heartland: Climate Models Greatly Overestimate Corn Belt Warming
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, June 17, 2023
FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief
By Staff, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), June 2, 2023
World Agricultural Production
By Staff, United States Department of Agriculture, June 2023
Smart farming platform improves crop yields, minimizes pollution
By Staff Writers, Austin TX (SPX), Jun 22, 2023
Link to paper: A multifunctional copper single-atom electrocatalyst aerogel for smart sensing and producing ammonia from nitrate
By Panpan Li, et al. PNAS, June 20, 2023
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Australian bushfires likely contributed to multiyear La Niña
Study finds string of climate impacts related to wildfire emissions
Press Release, NSF, June 20, 2023
Link to paper: A multiyear tropical Pacific cooling response to recent Australian wildfires in CESM2
By Fasullo, Rosenbloom and Buchholz, AAAS Science Advances, May 10, 2023
From abstract: The climate response to biomass burning emissions from the 2019–2020 Australian wildfire season is estimated from two 30-member ensembles using CESM2: one of which incorporates observed wildfire emissions and one that does not.
[SEPP Comment: “The research was led by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. (NCAR)…” NCAR model games]
Lowering Standards
The Changing Arctic – 1922
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 20, 2023
“Now the original link only brings up this response:”
“Sorry, we could not find the page that you are looking for.”
[SEPP Comment: The American Meteorological Society (AMS) Journals delete history?]
That old thing again?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 21, 2023
“Though the claim is common; this spring NOAA said ‘the summer sea ice minimum extent has dropped to its smallest size in recorded history’ which stretches back roughly 5,400 years, roughly 5,356 of which they ignore.”
WEF: “Its too late” is the Dominant Climate Denier Myth
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 21, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Can the World Economic Forum’s standards go lower?]
London summers will be as hot as Nice by 2070: Met Office
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 232 2023
“Why on earth do they need a Climate Modelling Team, never mind a Head of Situational Awareness?”
[SEPP Comment: Rather than having their heads in the clouds, they have their heads in their models.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Beijing’s Hottest June Day ; But BBC Forget To Mention UHI
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 23, 2023
“According to KNMI, the previous record for June was 40.6C, set in 1961, so we are only talking half a degree higher, which hardly justifies the BBC’s hysteria.
But since 1961, Beijing has been transformed out of all recognition; roads, high rise “buildings, traffic and industry have replaced the city of Mao’s time. Unquestionably UHI is now adding at least a couple of degrees to today’s temperatures.”
Wrong (Again), CBC, Climate Change Isn’t Causing a Decline in Wine Production
By H. Sterling Burnett, Climate Realism, June 21, 2023
“For the second time in the space of two months CBC, Canada’s public broadcaster, ran a story claiming climate change is harming wine production, particularly in Canada.”
[SEPP Comment: It is so much hotter in Canada than in the south of France? Increasing CO2 increases grape production and sugars. Thus, may require changes in canopy management, fermentation techniques and clones of varietals. But it is not reducing grape production.]
BBC Ignore Cold Weather In India
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 22, 2023
“Temperatures near to 30C [86F] may seem high to us, but when early morning temperatures dip to 15C [59F], which they did on the fourth, that is a problem for people without heating or proper cold weather clothing.]
Cuckoos In Decline? Must Be Climate Change!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 21, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Are they flocking to capital cities?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Earth Looks Like Jupiter–Is This What NASA Has Descended to?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 22, 2023
Video may be from NASA: Following atmospheric carbon dioxide, Jan 24, 2017,
A similar video appeared on Weather.com
“I’m struggling to think of anything more fraudulent than this from NASA:”
[SEPP comment: Is NASA unfit for duty?]
Graphic Lying
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, June 17, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
62% of UK say reducing bills is more important than carbon targets
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 21, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Ross McKitrick: The truth about forest fires goes up in climate-change smoke
We’re told we should listen to the science, but the science on forest fires is that they peaked in the 1980s
By:Ross McKitrick, Financial Post (Canada), June 15, 2023 [H/t Paul Homewood]
BBC Learning English–How To Talk To A Climate Denier
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 19, 2023
“Quite what a naive propaganda piece has to do with teaching people English eludes me:”
Expanding the Orthodoxy
If you’ll just fork over the global economy and then some…
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 21, 2023
“Climate justice. Another academic specialty heard from. Too loudly, perhaps.”
UN adopts ‘historic’ high seas treaty
By Amélie Bottollier-Depois, United Nations, United States (AFP) June 19, 2023
Questioning European Green
Coal Subsidies Jeopardize EU Power Market Reform
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, Jun 19, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Why is compelling the change from reliable electricity to unreliable electricity called reform?]
Net Zero plan risks the lights going out, MPs warn
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 21, 2023
Questioning Green Elsewhere
“Peak Green” In the West: What It Means for The East
By Tilak Doshi, WUWT, June 17, 2023
Funding Issues
“These guys run the world” — BlackRock recruiter caught boasting about buying Senators ‘cheap.’”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 22, 2023
The Political Games Continue
Starmer Confirms Ban On North Sea Exploration
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 19, 2023
From Wikipedia: “Sir Keir Rodney Starmer KCB KC is a British politician and barrister who has served as Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the Labour Party since 2020.”
Held v Montana Climate Lawsuit
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. June 21, 2023
Oregon county sues oil companies over deadly 2021 heat wave
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, June 23, 2023
Link to study: Western North American extreme heat virtually impossible without human-caused climate change
By Staff, World Weather Attribution, July 7, 2021
3M settles ‘forever chemical’ contamination suits with public water systems for billions
By Rachel Frazin and Sharon Udasin, The Hill, June 22, 2023
Climate Change: Time To Pay The Piper?
By Chuck Dinerstein, MD, ACSH, June 12, 2023
Anti-Fossil Fuel Lawfare Takes Hold in the UK
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, June 21, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Gives illustrations of past litigation claims.]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
China is Throwing Away Fields of Electric Cars – Letting them Rot!
By The China Show Via Charles Rotter, WUWT, June 20, 2023
Video with ads of the land of shortcuts and facades. Manufacturers are making EVs for subsidies or investment schemes and dumping them in fields to rot.
Now it’s subsidies to cover the taxes on EV plant subsidies
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 21, 2023
“It remains difficult to determine whether the Canadian government is torpedoing every major conventional energy project in the country through malice, incompetence or a greasy mix of the two.”
“Had she [Finance Minister Feeland] read as many books on economics as she’s written, starting with Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, she would understand that if another government decides to subsidize the production of something valuable, the appropriate response is to import it and make its’ taxpayers’ loss your consumers’ gain.”
Net Zero Crunch Time–Dieter Helm
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 23, 2023
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2023/06/23/net-zero-crunch-time-dieter-helm/ or
Oil Company Decides To Sell Oil
By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 21, 2023
“Shell is committed to “net-zero” but apparently prefers to make money off a real product.”
[National] Grid asks factories to use less energy next winter under blackout prevention plan
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 18, 2023
Smart meters are a trial run for an even greater heat pump disaster to come–Simon Heffer
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 18, 2023
“And as with many green fantasies, there is incompetence. The Government is way behind its target of getting these malfunctioning meters into 80 per cent of homes by 2025, not least because of a shortage of installers. And those who do install are accused of prioritizing quantity over quality, hence so many going haywire.”
Energy Issues — US
Gas stoves raise indoor levels of cancer-causing benzene, study finds
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, June 16, 2023
Link to paper: Gas and Propane Combustion from Stoves Emits Benzene and Increases Indoor Air Pollution
By Yannai S. Kashtan, et al. Environmental Science and Technology, June 15, 2023
“Across 87 homes in California and Colorado, natural gas and propane combustion emitted detectable and repeatable levels of benzene that in some homes raised indoor benzene concentrations above well-established health benchmarks.”
“According to the EPA, the largest sources of benzene in the U.S. are wildfires (45 million kg year–1), gasoline-powered light-duty vehicles (37 million kg year–1), and oil and gas production (25 million kg year–1).”
[SEPP Comment: Unable to find any description of the make and age of the 87 stoves selected, or selection process such as how many stoves were examined before the 87 were selected.
Washington’s Control of Energy
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 21, 2023
“House Republicans are trying to require that the legislature have the final say on major regulatory rules of all sorts. It would delight the great theorist of liberty under law John Locke, who insisted that legislators could not delegate the power to make laws that the people had entrusted to them and them alone.”
Treasury Department says nearly 200 clean energy projects announced since IRA
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, June 22, 2023
[SEPP Comment: How does expensive, unreliable electricity reduce inflation?]
Rescue Me – Debt-Ceiling Deal Remakes NEPA, Shows A Path To Further Permitting Reforms
Published by: Jason Lindquist, RBN Energy, June 16, 2023
“When it comes to large-scale energy and infrastructure projects, permitting can sometimes look like a game of Whack-a-Mole — where efforts to conclude the process are continually frustrated by issues that appear (and then sometimes appear again and again). But if the difficulties in building a new pipeline, transmission line or solar farm seem immense, they pale in comparison to what developers of mining projects can face.”
Federal buildings to get $1B sustainability upgrade from climate law
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, June 20, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Why not convert them to totally renewables?]
How Biden’s Budget Shortchanges Clean Energy Innovation
By Hoyu Chong, Real Clear Energy, June 22, 2023
“First, the Fiscal Responsibility Act cuts RD&D investment across the board, including energy, which will erode domestic investment. Meanwhile, China’s current Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) includes a planned increase in energy RD&D spending of 7 percent per year, extending its lead over the United States in federal energy investment.”
[SEPP Comment: The author foolishly believes that energy innovation comes from governments.]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
I Need You, Encore Edition – U.S. Crude Oil And Refined Products Exports Are Driven By Production Growth
Published by: Housley Carr, RBN Energy, June 29, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Don’t tell Washington.]
China Close To Signing 27-Year LNG Supply Deal With Qatar
By ZeroHedge, Oil Price.com, Jun 21, 2023
Return of King Coal?
Coal To The Rescue In Britain As Solar Panels Also Work Too Poorly In The Summertime
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, June 23, 2023
“Summer temperatures in the UK have boosted the demand for electricity, and so the country has ‘started burning coal again for electricity generation for the first time in a month and a half,’ reports Blackout News, citing the Telegraph, June 13, 2023.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Global Wind Day, Environmental Nightmare
By Steve Milloy, Real Clear Energy, June 16, 2023
Sweden cancels renewable energy targets, Britain should follow
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, June 23, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Sweden has abundant hydro resources, something that most countries lack. Further, it is willing to use nuclear.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
How Much Wind Power Would We Need?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 21, 2023
“In simple terms, you need 5 units of wind power to make 1 unit of power from hydrogen.
“With this inefficiency, it is little wonder that making electricity from hydrogen is going to be ridiculously expensive, even before the costs of building and running electrolysis and new hydrogen power plants are factored in.”
[SEPP Comment: Government initiative, if it doesn’t work as planned, increase subsidies!]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
E-Cars Prone To Rapidly Losing Their Charge, Getting Stranded On German Autobahns
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, June 20, 2023
“So far the only solution is the (internal combustion engine) tow truck”
Labour’s Green Bus Breaks Down
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 19, 2023
[SEPP Comment: The hydrogen bus was replaced by a diesel one! Why not solar powered?]
California Dreaming
California’s emissions regulatory death spiral
By Ronald Stein, CFACT, June 18, 2023
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
BBC Peddle Fake Mosquito News
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 22, 2023
Arctic Is Burning Up!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 20, 2023
“According to George, the Arctic is burning up at 118F and we’re all going to die!”
Peak Climate? Global Warming will Make Dogs Hate Humans
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 22, 2023
Today We Died
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, June 21, 2023
[SEPP Comment: According to UN prophet Greta Thunberg.]
ARTICLES
1. Big Ethanol vs. Electric Vehicles
It’s Godzilla vs. King Kong in the battle for subsidy primacy.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, June 23, 2023
TWTW Summary. The editorial begins:
“One of the more entertaining spectacles in Washington these days is the industrial-policy competition between the climate and ethanol lobbies. The Biden Administration this week handed both sides a victory, yet as usual neither is satisfied.
“The Environmental Protection Agency on Wednesday finalized its long-awaited renewable fuel standards for 2023 to 2025. The standards dictate how much ethanol and other so-called biofuels must be blended into the nation’s fuel supply. Refiners have to buy credits if they don’t meet quotas, which raises the price of gasoline.
“Corn farmers, ethanol producers and Iowa politicians are irate because the EPA didn’t increase the mandated volume for conventional renewable fuels. ‘The rule is totally inconsistent with this administration’s climate agenda because everybody knows that both biodiesel and ethanol is environmentally positive,’ Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley said.
“Actually, the ethanol mandate increases CO2 emissions as more land is diverted to growing crops for fuel.”
The article does not give the details of PNAS study on detrimental impacts on land for ethanol subsidies. It then continues:
“But climate isn’t why the EPA decided not to increase the ethanol mandate. Instead, EPA says projected gasoline demand is not expected ‘to recover to pre-pandemic levels, and moreover is expected to be lower by 2025 than it was in 2022.’ Lower gasoline consumption limits the amount of ethanol that can feasibly be blended into the fuel supply.
“The ethanol lobby can blame electric-vehicle mandates and subsidies. The Inflation Reduction Act included tax credits for biofuel production, but they aren’t as generous as the potpourri of subsidies for electric vehicles. More EVs means less demand for gas, which means less ethanol that can be blended.
“The EPA tried to placate the ethanol lobby to little avail by shelving its earlier proposal to let EV makers qualify for renewable fuel credits, but this only infuriated the greens. ‘This rule is an unfortunate example of politics setting environmental policy, not science or law, and a poor use of 60 million acres of American farmland,’ Earthjustice declared.
“That basically sums up the Administration’s climate policy, which is also driving the conversion of agricultural land into solar and wind farms. The big losers in this industrial policy competition are American taxpayers.”
******************
2. At Ford, Government Is Now Job One
The auto maker gets a $9.2 billion low-cost loan—along with orders on how to use it.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, June 22, 2023
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins:
“Remember when Ford’s slogan was ‘Quality is Job One’? Those were the days. Now pleasing the government is job one as the Detroit auto maker shovels up taxpayer subsidies to fuel its government-mandated electric-vehicle transition.
“On Thursday the Energy Department awarded Ford a $9.2 billion loan for three battery plants in the South, which ranks as the biggest ‘investment’ in the loan program’s nearly 20-year history. This is the shop that under Barack Obama doled out billions to Solyndra, Fisker Automotive and A123 Systems, among other green businesses that went bust.
“Ford isn’t in financial danger now, but its EV investments are squeezing profits and forcing layoffs. The auto maker last year lost $3 billion on EV sales. In the first three months of this year, its EVs posted a negative 102% operating margin, meaning losses exceeded sales revenue.
“Buyers of Ford’s profitable and popular gas-powered trucks are subsidizing EVs. But this won’t last as Ford ramps up EV production to meet government mandates. The Biden Administration’s emissions rules require EVs to be 17% of sales in 2026 and two-thirds by 2032. They were about 3% last year.
“Ford and other car makers aim to make EVs profitable through efficiencies from manufacturing scale. But until that distant day, they want government to subsidize the money-losing cars they’re required to make. The Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) $7,500 consumer tax credits are merely a down payment.
“The Energy Department provides loans at the U.S. Treasury rate that are far cheaper than in the private market. Because Ford boasts a speculative credit rating, it will borrow from the government at about half the interest rate that private sources would charge.
“Kentucky and Tennessee have also agreed to chip in some $2.7 billion for the three factories. Michigan has offered Ford $1.7 billion in incentives for a ‘collaboration’ with China’s state battery champion CATL. Oh, and Ford can pocket IRA manufacturing tax credits, which shave a third off the cost of battery production.
“The Mercatus Center’s Christine McDaniel estimates the IRA battery production tax credit will cost $152.8 billion—more than five times as much as Congress’s Joint Tax committee estimated last year. That’s because so many auto makers are rushing to cash in.”
The editorial discusses possible stings attached to the loans, then continues:
“Ford’s sweetheart loan follows National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan’s recent vow to ‘unapologetically pursue our industrial strategy at home.’ The climate agenda has turned the once great American auto industry into a too-willing prisoner of government.”
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More ULEZ shenannigans..
There hasn’t been much in the way of anything other than praise for the ULEZ expansion from the BBC. Why is that?
“BBC accused of bowing to pressure from Sadiq Khan over Ulez reporting
Editor says stories on controversial scheme are escalated to senior levels for sign-off because of ‘complaint’ from the mayor”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/06/24/bbc-running-scared-ulez-sadiq-khan-leaked-messages/
“An informant at the BBC has released messages to Reform UK London Mayor candidate Howard Cox with a warning stories on ULEZ need top level clearance.
A senior news producer at the BBC has leaked messages which show that the Corporation is limiting critical coverage of Sadiq Khan’s controversial expansion of the Ultral Low Emmission Zone.
…
The BBC producer was told in an email to news staff from Dan Fineman Senior News Editor BBC South East: “If any platforms are doing a story on ULEZ charges in the South and Southeast we now need to do a mandatory referral to Jason Horton or Robert Thomson (re) outstanding complaint with the Mayor of London which is very live at the moment.”
Jason Horton is the Director of Production (Local Services) at BBC News and Current Affairs, Head of BBC South Today and BBC Southeast. He is also an Acting Director at BBC England.
Robert Thomson is BBC’s Managing Editor for Online and TV in BBC England.
According to Reform UK, the BBC whistleblower told Mr Cox: “All ULEZ stories are now a mandatory referral.
“We can’t report without BBC bosses saying we can. Now you tell me Howard, that doesn’t stop people from doing it, in case he (Sadiq Khan) complains about them too?
“Unreal to have such an edict put on us – by a politician and my bosses running scared of Khan!
“I also believe a BBC London investigation into ULEZ has now been paused because of the Mayor of London’s pressure on the BBC.”
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1783959/bbc-sadiq-khan-ulez-criticism
“Mayor of London Sadiq Khan has described protesters rallying against the ultra-low emission zone expansion as far right, Covid deniers and Tories.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-64833639
The only toxicity here is what comes out of Khan’s mouth.
Justin Rowlatt, BBC climate ?science correspondent, gave a talk to the Just Stop Oil sessions at Glastonbury.
https://twitter.com/7Kiwi/status/1673343878848495620
Almost every trial in the present about global warming will prove The Greta Gap Backwards…!!
Toyota CEO: “Our NEW Hydrogen Engine Will Destroy The EV Industry!”
Strange video- describing Toyota’s hydrogen engine- with no mention of where the hydrogen will come from and how it’ll be produced but bragging how clean and green it is.
These hydrogen ICEs are very strange. I’ve seen videos of one under development in England. The claims always appear internally inconsistent.
For example, hydrogen is a low density fuel so unless one reaches very high compression ratios it is difficult to get enough fuel into a cylinder to attain much power. But this makes the NOx problem worse, which they claim to have solved by limiting temperature which must mean also limiting compression ratio. But this limits both power and efficiency. Yet, the developers claim marvelous efficiencies and power equalling a diesel — and round and round a circle of inconsistent claims we go.
I looked at the output of a hydrogen engine on a test stand and its power output was about one-fourth the output of a diesel of similar displacement. It may have been a function of test parameters for a particular reason, but a person would think that a demonstration to the general public would have put the engine’s best foot forward.
Even if hydrogen vehicles run nicely, how is the hydrogen going to be produced in volume? I would think (guessing) that it can’t be produced without a carbon footprint- not that I think that’s important as I don’t have a problem with carbon emissions, but that company is the one bragging how this tech is clean and green. But they don’t mention that of course. Just like the EV makers who ignore that much of the electricity to run their cars is still produced by ff. I suppose this is all just advertising which we should ignore- those of us who know better, but many people don’t know better and believe all the hype.
I agree with you. These schemes all have many problems on different levels. The worst is of course “people don’t know better.”
“Hydrogen is a low density fuel”
Rail Engineer looked at Scottish plans for hydrogen powered trains and concluded that a depot using hydrogen powered trains would need 14 times as many hydrogen road transport deliveries as a depot using diesel trains.
https://www.railengineer.co.uk/scotlands-hydrogen-train-supporting-the-hydrogen-economy/
I am a big proponent of pointing out to people that these are four absolutely necessary materials for a modern life, as most seem utterly ignorant of such and vote their ignorance. Yet I would add glass which requires natural gas and perhaps we should add electronics grade silicon which would be impossible without coal to start the process of taking silicon dioxide (quartz) to metallurgical grade silicon which is the input for electronics grade material.
Beyond these four, or five, or even six critical materials, and especially in the short run, not much of anything is possible without fossil fuels.
Strong temperature drop in the upper stratosphere above 60S.
