The Week That Was: 2023-03-04 (March 4, 2023)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool. — Richard P. Feynman
Number of the Week: Six times and Four times
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: One focus this week will be on a new paper by professors emeriti William Happer at Princeton University and Richard Lindzen at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, respectively, and Gregory Wrightstone, a geologist of more than 40 years’ experience, who now heads the CO2 Coalition. The paper explains that Governments around the globe are taking actions to implement fossil fuel-free or “Net Zero” energy systems without a thorough examination of the scientific basis for doing so. The one exception is governments in Asia.
At the 15th International Climate Change Conference (ICCC) in Orlando, Judith Curry gave a solid summary of what she calls the Wicked science problem – mixing science with politics. The result is politics with a false scientific certainty. A few key points will be discussed.
Also, at the 15th ICCC, Willie Soon addressed the question is global warming predominantly human caused or natural. A few key points will be discussed. Some other presentations will be discussed in future TWTWs.
The October 23, 2021, TWTW, addressed an important paper by a Professor of Economics at the University of Guelph, Canada, Ross McKitrick published in the journal Climate Dynamics. The paper addressed errors in understanding the conditions for applying the Gauss-Markov theorem in assessing the probabilities of rare weather events in a paper published in Climate Dynamics by Myles Allen and Simon Tett twenty years earlier. An entire discipline arose from this error, which was included in every Assessment Report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) since 2001. During the 15th ICCC, Ken Haapala asked McKitrick did he know of any papers refuting his assessment. The answer was no. The summary of the issue by Richard Tol of the University of Sussex and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam is reproduced below.
In preparing for a hearing held by Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), Marlo Lewis of CEI asked TWTW about the current studies on sea level rise. A summary is presented below.
The EU and the US continue on their mad pursuit of unreliable electricity from wind and solar in part driven by the myth that electricity from wind and solar will be less expensive. Now, wind power promoters are exposing the myth by demanding increases in subsidies and guaranteed rates, regardless of their bids to provide low-cost electricity. Net Zero Watch and Andrew Montford expose extortion attempts in the UK. Meanwhile China, India, and Pakistan continue to thumb their nose at the Western myth that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are causing dangerous global warming.
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Net Zero Challenge: The Executive Summary of “Challenging ‘Net Zero’ with Science” sums up well the thrust of the 40 plus page report:
“Governments around the globe are taking actions to implement fossil fuel-free or “Net Zero” energy systems without a thorough examination of the scientific basis for doing so. This paper undertakes that examination by reviewing the scientific support (or lack thereof) that has been used to justify this transition to Net Zero. No attempt is made to address the significant economic, societal, or environmental consequences of a near-total reliance on renewable energy and the required battery-backup that is necessary to transition to a fossil fuel free future.
Two of the paper’s authors – Drs. William Happer and Richard Lindzen, professors emeriti at Princeton University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology, respectively – have spent decades studying and writing about the physics of Earth’s atmosphere. The third, Gregory Wrightstone, a geologist of more than 40 years, has spent much of the last decade writing and speaking about the interplay of geology, history, and climate.
The authors find that Net Zero – the global movement to eliminate fossil fuels and its emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases – to be scientifically invalid and a threat to the lives of billions of people. Among the paper’s findings are:
• Net Zero proponents regularly report that extreme weather is more severe and frequent because of climate change while the evidence shows no increase – and, in some cases, a decrease – in such events.
• Computer models supporting every government Net Zero regulation and the trillions of dollars subsidizing renewables and electric cars, trucks, home heating, appliances and many other products do not work.
• Scientific research and studies that do not support the ‘consensus’ narrative of harmful man-made global warming are routinely censored and excluded from government reports such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the National Climate Assessment.
• Conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that contradict the narrative of catastrophic global warming from fossil fuels are rewritten by government bureaucrats for public reports to support the false narrative of Net Zero.
• The many benefits of modest warming and increasing carbon dioxide are routinely either eliminated or minimized in governmental reports.
• Eliminating fossil fuels and implementing Net Zero policies and actions mean the elimination of fossil fuel-derived nitrogen fertilizers and pesticides that will result in about half the world’s population not having enough food to eat. Many would starve. [See recent events in Sri Lanka]
• The adoption of Net Zero is the rejection of overwhelming scientific evidence that there is no risk of catastrophic global warming caused by fossil fuels and CO2.
Net Zero, then, violates the tenets of the scientific method that for more than 300 years has underpinned the advancement of western civilization.”
After supporting all the assertions including using the curves showing the greenhouse effect of various gases produced by Happer & Wijngaarden in “Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases,’ the authors state:
“In summary:
• 394 W/m2 would be radiated to space without the greenhouse effect.
• Only 277 W/m2 is radiated to space because of the greenhouse effect.
• 117 W/m2 difference is radiated to the Earth, and it keeps us from freezing to death.
• 3 W/m2 more warming if CO2 is doubled from 400 ppm 800 ppm.
• 120 ppm, 120 W/m2 rather than 117 W/m2, goes back to Earth and results in a trivial temperature increase of 1°C (2 ° F).” [Correction approved by Happer]
It goes on to state that some of the CMIP models may recognize CO2 is “saturated” and:
“Accordingly, since CO2 at today’s level is “saturated,” for this reason alone there is no risk fossil fuels and even doubling CO2 will cause catastrophic global warming.”
The Conclusion of the report states:
“Thus, in our scientific opinion, any government or other analysis advocating “Net Zero” regulation, policy or other action is scientifically invalid and fatally flawed science if it:
- Omits unfavorable data that contradicts conclusions, for example, on extreme weather events such as heat waves, wildfires, hurricanes, tornadoes, fires, and droughts.
- Relies on models that do not work and thus would never be used in science.
C. Relies on IPCC findings, which are government opinions, not science.
D. Omits the extraordinary social benefits of CO2 and fossil fuels.
E. Omits the disastrous consequences of reducing fossil fuels and CO2 to ‘Net Zero.’
F. Rejects the science that demonstrates there is no risk of catastrophic global warming caused by fossil fuels and CO2.
We urge all government agencies involved in ‘Net Zero’ regulation, policy, or other action, including USGCRP [US Global Change Research Program] in its final version of the 5th National Climate Assessment, to apply the scientific method and
1. Delete any reliance on and citation to IPCC government-controlled findings.
2. Delete any reliance on and citation to CMIP models and any other models unless they have been proven to work.
3. Delete any reliance on methods other than the scientific method, such as peer review and consensus.
4. Include and analyze the enormous social benefits of CO2.
5. Include and analyze the enormous social benefits of fossil fuels.
6. Immediately stop all efforts to eliminate fossil fuels to avoid massive human starvation in the future.”
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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“Good Data” Supports Political Policy: In her 15th ICCC video presentation, Judith Curry had some excellent slides of note. One of them presented the problem of mixing politics with science. In that slide Curry asserts.
“Policy makers misuse science by:
- Using science as a vehicle to avoid ‘hot potato’ policy issues,
- Expecting black-and-white answers to complex problems
- Demanding Scientific arguments for desired policies
- Funding a narrow range of projects that supports preferred policies.
Scientists misuse policy-relevant science by:
- Playing power politics with their expertise
- Conflating [mixing] evidence with expert judgement [which may be questionable]
- Ignoring data and research paths that undermine their political preference.
- Entangling disputed facts with values
- Intimidating scientist whose research interferes with their political agenda.”
In discussing what she calls Wicked science, the over lapping of science and politics, Curry presented a number of preceptive slides. As discussed in the January 21 TWTW, in his 1995 book, The Vision of the Anointed: Self-Congratulation as a Basis for Social Policy, Thomas Sowell saw the problem in social sciences. It has now spread to physical sciences with devastating consequences in energy policy. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Man-made or Human-caused? In his presentation at the 15th ICCC, Willie Soon summarizes key finding of two papers recently produced by the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences (CERES). Begun in 2018, CERES is a team led by Soon, Ronan Connolly and Michael Connolly which works with many researchers on multi-disciplinary environmental and Earth science projects.
In the brief 20 minutes given to him, Soon addressed the following:
- “History and the evolution of the global land temperature records
- The urban heat island problem and other non-climatic biases
- What happens if we just use rural stations?
- ‘Statistical homogenization of the temperature data’ as a possible solution?
- Problems with current ‘homogenization” attempts
- Are the IPCC’s “solar forcing’ estimates correct?
- Can the Sun explain the global warming of rural stations?”
Soon goes through the phases of climate change: constant temperature (1870s to 1920s); global warming (1930s to 1940s); global cooling (1940s to 1970s); and global warming again (1980s to present). Soon discusses the problems of surface instruments, particularly the Urban Heat Island effect, which he presents in some detail.
The problem with strictly rural temperatures is the lack of data. The team developed a rural Northern Hemisphere times series for four regions: US; Arctic; Ireland; and China. There simply is not enough data for the Southern Hemisphere and only about 10 to 15 percent of the total data for the Northern Hemisphere is used.
These data show a cyclical warming – warming, cooling, warming, cooling, etc. Interestingly, sea surface temperature estimates do not agree with the IPCC’s conclusions of a dangerous global warming. Soon goes into the homogenization adjustments on surface data and finds several problems: 1) there is no consistency to the adjustments; 2) there is a “urban blending” problem (as cities become more urban). Without consistency in adjustments and consistent urbanization, the resulting adjustments are highly questionable.
Soon goes into solar variability that may better explain the warming and cooling cycles than carbon dioxide (CO2). But the IPCC ignores climate variability, including using the ridiculous 2,000-year hockey-stick in its latest Summary for Policymakers (AR-6, 2021). Soon concludes with future directions for CERES research. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Deafening Silence: No one has come forward to challenge Ross McKitrick’s work describing the erroneous understanding of the Gauss-Markov Theorem by Myles Allen and Simon Tett that gave rise to a large body of work attributing extreme weather events to CO2. Thus, it is useful to repeat the comments by climate modeler Richard Tol after reviewing the work by McKitrick. Tol wrote:
“The debate between Ross McKitrick on the one hand and Myles Allen and Simon Tett on the other is a difficult one. It is about a detail in statistical theory. Most people try to steer clear of statistics, let alone the inner workings of estimators that are robust to heteroskedasticity.
Allen and Tett worked on a method developed earlier by Klaus Hasselmann, now a Nobel laureate. Regression analysis consists of a model and an error term. It maximized the similarity between model and data, minimizing the error. Ordinary least squares, the standard regression method, assumes that all errors are the same. If this assumption is violated, the standard errors of the estimated parameters are biased even if there are infinitely many observations. The test whether there is a climate signal in the data relies on those standard errors. That test is therefore wrong.
Allen and Tett were aware of this problem and proposed a solution in their 1999 paper. Unfortunately, their list of references shows that they did not consult much statistical literature. They did not visit Oxford’s excellent departments of statistics or econometrics either – where they would have learned that Halbert White had published a solution in 1980, a solution that was in every textbook by 1990
The solution proposed by Allen and Tett does not solve the problem. On the contrary. Ordinary least squares would have done better. The estimated standard error is still inconsistent. Worse, McKitrick shows that the estimated parameter is now biased. Allen and Tett also proposed a test of their method. McKitrick shows this test is wrong as well: It finds too many false positives. That is, Allen and Tett published a non-solution that made matters worse plus a way to cover it all up.
In his reply, here and elsewhere, Myles Allen makes light of his mistake. It was so long ago. He also reveals that he does not understand the issue. Allen argues that there are now much more data. This would overcome all statistical problems. Nothing could be further from the truth. The Allen and Tett estimator is biased. More data just means that you have greater confidence in the wrong result.”
Interestingly, in his book, The Primacy of Doubt, widely respected climate modeler Tim Palmer refers to the false attribution studies as evidence the global climate models are correct.
World Weather Attribution still publishes studies claiming that extreme weather events such as storms, floods, heatwaves and droughts are connected to greenhouse gas emissions. They use global climate models such as CMIP6 used by the IPCC. (Note the circular argument: models are justified due to attribution studies and these attribution studies use these models.)
All this is “peer reviewed” meaning that “peer review” is little more than conformity to the vision of the anointed. The Imperial College London, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), and Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre are partners with World Weather Attribution. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/analysis/heatwave/
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Changing Seas: TWTW responded to the request by Marlow Lewis on the latest in sea level change as follows: (links are in the text)
As we discussed, I’ve reviewed TWTW for articles on sea level rise that you can link to for your Wednesday hearing. The below can be used to supplement Kip Hansen’s posts such as https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/02/14/sea-level-rise-and-fall-part-4a-getting-even-more-of-a-rise-out-of-nothing/.
NASA meteorologist, the late Tom Wysmuller, wrote some excellent stuff, but I was unable to find it on the current website maintained in his honor. The best I found are: 1) The Inconvenient CO2/Sea Level Non-Linkage; and 2) the responses to question # 2 on the FAQ Page. The graph used at the start of the first post is what I generally reference, which appeared in the 2008 NIPCC report. http://colderside.com/Colderside/Sea_Level_%26_CO2.html and http://colderside.com/Colderside/F.A.Q..html
There are three major difficulties with the claim that sea level rises are accelerating.
1. Geological stability: According to tidal gauges in the Gulf of Bothnia, sea levels are falling drastically. Along the coast of Finland, the variation in sea level trends is over 2 meters, over 6 feet. (Pick a sea level trend – rise or fall?) https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/sea-level-variations The Gulf of Alaska and Hudson Bay are other locations with falling sea levels. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/ Conversely, the Atlantic Coastal Plain and Gulf of Mexico are experiencing significant sea level rise from groundwater extraction which is causing the land to sink. Coastal Virginia (Norfolk-Newport News) is an excellent example. https://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1392/pdf/circ1392.pdf (Roger Bezdek did an excellent paper on this problem showing developing funnels of subsiding land around major wells at West Point and Franklin, Virginia, from the USGS report cited, pp 13 & 16.) In my view, the problem for coastal areas is solvable by desalination techniques developed by the Israelis, used in other Mid-Eastern countries and in Carlsbad, California. https://www.usgs.gov/special-topics/water-science-school/science/desalination and https://www.carlsbaddesal.com/ .
2. Changing patterns of prevailing winds. Over 100 years ago the British National Oceanography Center https://ntslf.org/tgi/newlyn-tidal-observatory established tidal gauges at geodetic stable locations at Newlyn, Cornwall, England, https://psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/202.php and North Shields, Northumberland, England. As Paul Homewood demonstrates, examination of the entire records shows periods of increasing sea level rise and falling sea levels. https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/09/03/uk-sea-level-rise-not-unprecedented-nor-accelerating/ Changing prevailing winds are the most likely cause in changing sea level trends in these locations.
3. As Kip Hansen shows, instrument changes are the most likely cause of the recent fad of accelerating sea level trends. Government scientific organizations should realize that following instrument changes periods of stabilization, or calibration, are needed to assure that different types of instruments are measuring the same thing the same way. The infamous hockey-stick episode demonstrated that proxy data such as tree rings may not measure temperature alone or the same way as thermometers. Many government organizations ignore these past failures and fail to properly standardize measurements.
According to Brown University in Providence, Providence, Rhode Island, has been subject to floods from hurricanes (gales) since 1764. https://www.brown.edu/Departments/Joukowsky_Institute/courses/architectureandmemory/8084.html. Other major hurricane floods include 1815, 1869, 1938, Carol in 1954, and Connie and Diane in 1955. The 2010 flood was from rain. https://www.weather.gov/safety/flood-states-ri A problem is its geological location at the small end of a funnel. The construction of the Fox Point Hurricane Barrier, completed in 1966, will help against hurricanes and northeasters, but that does not protect against river flooding from the Providence River due to rainfall. In general, sea level rise is real, but not accelerating, and not more than 8 inches per century.
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Greedy Green: Andrew Montfort of Net Zero Watch discusses that the subsidies received by green wind power are not falling as promised earlier. Further, the wind industry in the UK is ignoring its bids to deliver affordable electricity and demanding greater subsidies. The US can expect similar measures as favorable regulations are used by wind and solar to price out reliable generators of electricity. See Subsidies and Mandates Forever and Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind.
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Number of the Week: Six times and Four times: According to NPR, China is building six times more coal-fired power plants than any other country; Reuters states that Pakistan plans to quadruple domestic coal-fired power; and an article in Oil Price.com states that India has committed its coal-fired power plants for maximum generation for the summer. Obviously, the leaders of these countries do not have “The Vision” that leaders of Western countries have. See links under Problems in the Orthodoxy.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Censorship
Opinion: Policing misinformation from the misinformation police
State-sponsored ‘experts’ on ‘misinformation’ are typically the worst offenders
By Ross McKitrick, Special to Financial Post, Feb 23, 2023 [H/t Ron Clutz]
How a fact check works
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 1, 2023
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging “Net Zero” with Science
By Richard Lindzen and William Happer, CO2 Coalition, 2023
The True crisis: Climate Change or Climate Policy
15th International Conference on Climate Change, Feb 24 & 25, 2023
Video: https://climateconference.heartland.org/
Climate Uncertainty & Risk: the presentation
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Feb 24, 2023
Global warming: Mostly human-caused or mostly natural?
Dr. Willie Soon’s February 2023 presentation at ICCC15, Florida (USA)
By Staff, CERES Team, March 1, 2023
Suboptimal Fingerprinting? A debate about climate statistics
By Staff, GWPF, Oct 18, 2021
Link to simplified paper: Suboptimal Fingerprinting?
By Ross McKitrick, GWPF, 2021
Study finds sinking tundra surface unlikely to trigger runaway permafrost thaw
Press Release: DOE/OAK Ridge National Laboratory, Via WUWT, Feb 22, 2023
Link to paper: Drying of tundra landscapes will limit subsidence-induced acceleration of permafrost thaw
By Scott L. Painter, et al. PNAS, Feb 13, 2023
Defending the Orthodoxy
The UN Owns The Science
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 24, 2023
“’We own the science’ says UN Secretary [ Under-Secretary-General for Global Communications] Melissa Fleming on climate change WEF 2022”
[SEPP Comment: Arrogance comparable to Fauci declaring “I am the Science.”
UN secretary-general knocks ‘climate-wrecking corporations’ in human rights remarks
By Lauren Sforza, The Hill, Feb 27, 2023
Climate Scientists Want Rationing To Fight Climate Change
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 20, 2023
UN Plan to Kill Free Speech Headlined by a President who was Convicted of Corruption
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 23, 2023
“I’m actually encouraged by these frantic efforts by mostly left-wing politicians and UN bureaucrats to use coercion to regain control of the narrative, because I see it as evidence they are losing. Across the world people are increasingly doing their own research. Those who crave power over our lives don’t seem to like the conclusions empowered free people are drawing from the evidence.”
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
George Soros calls for weather control to stop global warming, ice sheet melting
‘Our civilization is in danger of collapsing,’ George Soros says
By Thomas Catenacci, Fox News, Feb 17, 2023
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Nothing beats panic
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 22, 2023
“Despite a long history of climate policies costing far more than planned and accomplishing precisely nothing, the option of making a principled and logical decision to do no harm seems beyond the capability of our policymakers.”
Don’t Believe The Geniuses Claiming To Know Our Energy Future
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Feb 26, 2023
Objective Science Assessment: Hypothesis CO2 Controls The Climate Is On Quicksand
By Fred Mueller, No Tricks Zone, Feb 21, 2023
More money than brains
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 1, 2023
“Are we so spoiled by the affluence capitalism has bestowed on us, including by its spectacular development of hydrocarbon energy, that we’ve forgotten where wealth comes from and think we can trash our inheritance and the trust fund money will just keep flowing in? Sure seems that way.”
How Scotland pays back for Malawi (non existent) climate damage
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 26, 2023
“Instead of blubbering on about climate change, maybe the Scottish government should be helping Malawi to build a reliable electricity grid, based on fossil fuels.”
Energy and Environmental Review: February 27, 2023
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, Feb 27, 2023
Change in US Administrations
Biden administration announces first Gulf of Mexico offshore wind lease sales
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Feb 22, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Unable to link to highly touted 2023 U.S. Offshore Wind Market Report that claims to estimate demand without any construction trends.]
Kerry to serve in climate envoy role at least through COP28 summit in November.
By Lauren Sforza, The Hill, Feb 26, 2023
“In 2021, Kerry announced that China and the United States came to a surprise agreement on climate change that included phasing out coal and reducing methane emissions and said that the world could not ‘solve the climate crisis’ without China.’
[SEPP Comment: So, China is building six times more coal-fired power plants than any other country?]
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
This just in: warmth, sunshine, CO2 good for crops
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 1, 2023
The virtual water content of Chinese crops
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 1, 2023
From the CO2Science Archive:
China is building six times more new coal plants than other countries, report finds
By Julia Simon, NPR, Mar 2, 2023
Link to report: China permits two new coal power plants per week in 2022
By Staff, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and the Global Energy Monitor (GEM), Feb 27, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Needed to backup wind and solar???]
China approves biggest expansion in new coal power plants since 2015
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 27, 2023
“When will Western leaders realize they have been hoodwinked by China?”
[SEPP Comment: Will green fools ever learn?]
India Invokes Maximum Energy Output Law from Coal Plants
By Charles Kennedy, Oil Price.com, Feb 20, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Pakistan plans to quadruple domestic coal-fired power, move away from gas
A shortage of natural gas, which accounts for over a third of the country’s power output, plunged large areas into hours of darkness last year.
By Staff, Reuters, Feb 14, 2023
Germany Wary Of Europe’s Ban Of Fossil Fuel Cars By 2035… Too Pricey, Technically Unfeasible
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Feb 18, 2023
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Comments welcome, as long as you agree with us
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 1, 2023
“Because governments have so little else do to, and are doing it so well, the American federal government is apparently planning to make evaluating carbon emissions central to every initiative it undertakes. According to the notice ‘Guidance: National Environmental Policy Act Guidance on Consideration of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Posted by the Council on Environmental Quality on Jan 9, 2023’ posted on Regulations.gov, ‘The United States faces a profound climate crisis and there is little time left to avoid a dangerous – potentially catastrophic – climate trajectory.’” [Boldface added]
Models v. Observations
The Holocene Temperature Conundrum
By Andy May, WUWT, Feb 25, 2023
“Climate models are clearly not modeling natural climate change accurately, especially not orbital forcing. If you cannot model natural climate change, you have no idea what the human influence on climate is. If you cannot model the Holocene correctly, you don’t understand climate change.”
[SEPP Comment: The modelers claim you cannot go backwards only forwards.]
Hurricanes Are Getting Stronger (But Only In Computer Models!)
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 1, 2023
Published field study observations – not population size – prove polar bears are thriving
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Feb 23, 2023
“There is irrefutable evidence from Barents and Chukchi Sea subpopulations, among others, that polar bears are fat and reproducing well despite marked declines in summer sea ice over the last two decades. These indicators of physical and reproductive health, in any species, are signs of thriving populations.”
Model Issues
Climate change increasing storm risks to coastal communities: study
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Feb 28, 2023
Link to paper Increasing sequential tropical cyclone hazards along the US East and Gulf coasts
By Dazhi Xi, Ning Lin & Avantika Gori, Nature Climate Change, Feb 27, 2023
From abstract” A Katrina-like TC [tropical cyclone] and a Harvey-like TC impacting the United States within 15 days of each other, which is non-existent in the control simulation for over 1,000 years, is projected to have an annual occurrence probability of more than 1% by the end of the century under the high emission scenario.”
[SEPP Comment: Simulated thinking?]
Measurement Issues — Surface
A new way to extract a climate signal from weather noise: Seasonal lag
By David M. Barnett, Climate Etc. Feb 27, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Ground temperature data (surface-air) are so messy that almost any conclusions can be drawn from them.]
Climate signals from ancient ice and wood
By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Feb 23, 2023
“The Holocene – the time since the end of the last glaciation – which has witnessed all of humanity’s recorded history and the rise and fall of civilizations – began only 11,700 years ago. It is a relatively warm period, but how warm was it at its warmest? What happened in the past informs current climate models placing the current global warming into perspective.”
Do European tree ring analyses indicate unusual recent hydroclimate?
By Frank Bosse and Nic Lewis, Climate Etc. Feb 21, 2023
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
UAH Global Temperature Update for February 2023: +0.08 deg. C
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Mar 3, 2023
“The linear warming trend since January 1979 remains at +0.13 C/decade (+0.11 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).”
Changing Weather
New Podcast: How Far Out in Time Can We Skillfully Predict the Weather?
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Feb 28, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Thanks to satellite data and improved modeling with greater computing capability, forecasting skill has increased to about one week. Explains the value of ensemble forecasting for weather – does not apply for climate.]
Roger Pielke Jr. unspins tornadoes
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 22, 2023
The 2022 Hurricane Season
By Paul Homewood, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 2023
“The increase in Atlantic hurricanes in the last fifty years is not part of a long-term trend, but is simply a recovery from a deep minimum in hurricane activity in the 1970s, associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.”
Random Probability Analysis Of Global Drought Data Affirm No Pattern Can Be Linked To Human Activity
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Feb 20, 2023
Link to paper: The Spatial Scale Dependence of The Hurst Coefficient in Global Annual Precipitation Data, and Its Role in Characterising Regional Precipitation Deficits within a Naturally Changing Climate
By Enda O’Connell, Greg O’Donnell, and Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Hydrology, Nov 7, 2022
Review Of The 2022/23 Winter In England
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 3, 2023
“Again, it is noticeable that, with the exception of the exceptionally wet winter of 2013/14, other recent wet winters, such as 2019/20 and 2020/21 have not been unusually wet by historical standards.
“The data tells us that the English climate is changing much less than we have been told”
[SEPP Comment: Don’t be fooled by “yellow snow.” According to the Met Office weather warnings guide: “Yellow Warning: Yellow warnings can be issued for a range of weather situations. Many are issued when it is likely that the weather will cause some low-level impacts, including some disruption to travel in a few places.”]
1791 – No Rain For The Entire Year In Southern California
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Mar 3, 2023
[SEPP Comment: In declaring unprecedented drought, did alarmist consult old records?]
Destructive windstorms of the Canadian prairie
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 22, 2023
From the CO2 Science Archive
Warming Globe? Then Why Haven’t Winters In Tokyo Been Warming Since the 1980s?
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 1, 2023
Sunny Spain
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Mar 2, 2023
Oh that snow
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 22, 2023
Changing Climate
2M Years Ago Corals, Manatees Occupied N. Greenland Seas As Elephants Browsed A Forested Landscape
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Mar 2, 2023
Link to paper: A 2-million-year-old ecosystem in Greenland uncovered by environmental DNA
By Kurt H. Kjær, et al. Nature, Dec 7, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Is the DNA technique used valid? Today, cold water corals spawn as far north as the Bay of Fundy between the Canadian provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia,]
Changing Seas
Further Exploration of Historical Sea Level Rise Acceleration
By Chris Hall, WUWT, Feb 21, 2023
New Study: Mid-Holocene Sea Level Was 2-3 m Higher Than Today…Rates Of Rise Reached 80 mm/yr
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Feb 23, 2023
Link to latest paper: Development of Pag-asa Reefs, West Philippine Sea: Role of Relative Sea Level Change and Wave Exposure
By Denise Faye S.et al. Phillippine Journal of Science, Feb 2023
[SEPP Comment: Hesitant to generalize from a set of measurements in the western Pacific. Could be from a shift in prevailing winds.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Antarctic Sea Ice: ‘The beginning of the end!’ – again
By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Mar 2, 2023
“One could say that this prime example of science miscommunication is the fault of the NSIDC scientists, and their comments posted on their website which were taken by journalists, and repeated without analysis or true context. So much of science journalism these days consists of “turning around” a press release.”
Kill dates of black mosses are archives of Antarctic glacier history
Mosses, one of the few plants in Antarctica, can be overridden by advancing glaciers
Press release NSF, Feb 28, 2023 [H/t Alex Pope]
Link to paper: Kill dates from re-exposed black mosses constrain past glacier advances in the northern Antarctic Peninsula
By Dulcinea V. Groff, et al. Geology, Jan 20, 2023
From the abstract: “The combination of our new terrestrial evidence for glacier advances with other lines of evidence shows the regional synchroneity of glacial dynamics and cryosphere-biosphere connections during rapid climate shifts and the sensitivity of terrestrial ecosystems to climate cooling.”
Elephant seal remains show Antarctic sea was warmer in the mid-to-late Holocene
By Host, Tallbloke’s Talkshop, Feb 18, 2023 [H/t Paul Homewood]
Link to Press Release: Elephant seal remains show Antarctic sea was warmer in the mid-to-late Holocene
By University of Maine, Phys.org, Feb 17, 2023
Link to paper: Widespread southern elephant seal occupation of the Victoria land coast implies a warmer-than-present Ross Sea in the mid-to-late Holocene
By Brenda L. Hall, et al. Quaternary Science Reviews, Mar 1, 2023
From abstract: Here, we present a record of past relative ocean-temperature and sea-ice change derived from the presence and then eventual abandonment of southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) occupation sites along the Victoria Land Coast (VLC) of the western Ross Embayment. Our results suggest greatly reduced landfast and likely pack ice, as well as potentially the incursion of relatively warm modified Circum-Polar Deep Water from ∼7100 to 500 yr BP, with the greatest reduction in ice/warmest water temperatures at ∼5200 and ∼2300-1800 yr BP.
[SEPP Comment: Note that the paper deals with the Ross Sea, part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), not the continent, Antarctica.]
Greenland Temperatures Rose 1°C In 1994 … Since Then They Have Been ‘Relatively Constant’
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Feb 27, 2023
Link to most recent paper: Temporal and Spatial Variability in Contemporary Greenland Warming (1958–2020)
By Qinglin Zhang, et al. Journal of Climate, Mary 1, 2023
From the abstract: “Under the background of Greenland rapidly warming, the shift from positive to negative NAO (negative to positive GBI) is critical to the sudden warming in Greenland since the mid-1990s.”
Polar Wildlife Report reveals Arctic and Antarctic animals were thriving in 2022
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Feb 27, 2023
Link to report: The Polar Wildlife Report, 2022
By Susan Crockford, GWPF, Feb 27, 2023
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
How dare you follow our advice?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 1, 2023
“When politicians and journalists of all stripes have been waging relentless war on the energy that brings a variety of fresh food from afar, and pushing the “100 mile diet” which in Britain in winter is pretty much limited to neeps and tatties, who’s really to blame if Britons are back to the kind of culinary choices they had in the Middle Ages?”
How Biotechnology Overregulation Harms Farmers, Boosts Food Costs And Fuels Inflation
By Henry Miller, ACSH, Feb 17, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Wacky government regulations such as a bacterium that inhibits the formation of ice on plants is a pesticide?]
Lowering Standards
BBC ‘Reality Check’ – Hoist by its own petard
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 2, 2023
Modi calls for World Bank reform at G20 finance meet
By Nivrita Ganguly, Bengaluru, India (AFP) Feb 24, 2023
“’Trust in international financial institutions has eroded. This is partly because they have been slow to reform themselves,’ Modi said by video link as the two-day gathering began.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
No, @CNN, an Opinion Piece about ‘Dangerous Climate Feedback Loops’ Doesn’t Qualify as Science
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Feb 24, 2023
Plus you didn’t even want a car
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 22, 2023
“…The Economist rushes to assure us that actually people don’t want cars anyway. At least not cool young people.”
Where Does The Telegraph Get Its Dopey Journalists From?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 23, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Icing A Climate Scare
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 25, 2023
[SEPP Comment: The case of the disappearing glaciers. IPCC knowingly promoting false claims on Himalayan glaciers in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR-4, 2007).]
Florida’s climate exodus has already begun — and it’s only going to get worse
4.9k
By Jake Bittle, Yahoo News, Feb 21, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kesphire]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Now that we have made you miserable…
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 1, 2023
“A Canadian federal government poll found that young people are scared and depressed about climate. Which is apparently an achievement because, you see, ‘More and more evidence is pointing to the urgency for climate action, underscoring the need for communities to adapt to the changing climate and prepare for the most challenging impacts of climate change.’”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
Austrian children take government to court over climate
By Staff, AP, Feb 21, 2023
“Their lawyer Michaela Kroemer says Austria’s climate law from 2011 doesn’t sufficiently protect the plaintiffs, aged five to 16, from the life-threatening consequences of global warming. Specifically, she said the children’s right to “generational justice” — guaranteed in the Austrian constitution — is breached by the Alpine nation’s climate law.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Villagers stop boiler switch to hydrogen for net-zero trials
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 2, 2023
“Instead of complaining about Cadent, the residents should be aiming their fire at the government who are actually the ones organising these trials.
“If they are worried about the trial now, just let them imagine what it will be like when the whole country has its gas cut off.”
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Tory MP Warns Of 15-Minute City Threat
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 28, 2023
According to Sweco UK: “The basic premise is that no matter where they live, all residents should be able to go to school, enjoy leisure activities, work and shop within walking or cycling distance of their homes – and enjoy a better quality of life as a result.”
Questioning European Green
UK Capacity Auction Results
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 27, 2023
“More alarmingly though is the lack of new generation being brought forward. While gas and interconnectors still dominate the overall mix, there is only one new CCGT, Eggborough, rated at 1.5 GW. As existing gas plants age and shut down, this lack of new capacity will come back to haunt us.”
Heat pumps have triggered a revolt against Net Zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 3, 2023
My Household Electricity And Gas Prices Rise 87% And 178% Respectively!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Feb 19, 2023
Grid Capacity Issues Threaten Net Zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 27, 2023
Tsunami Of Green Bans: German Economics Minister Plans End Of Gas, Oil Heating Beginning 2024!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Feb 28, 2023
Ireland rues mistakes of the past as it struggles to keep the lights on
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 1, 2023
“’The mobile turbines, described as ‘effectively jet engines’, are set to be installed in areas including Dublin and nearby County Meath.
“’The €350m (£308m) temporary capacity was ordered by environment minister Eamon Ryan last year as a ‘last resort’, after regulators flagged a looming shortfall in generation.’”
Questioning Green Elsewhere
New geological study proves that the green energy movement is impossible to achieve
The math doesn’t support the net zero activist movement’s rhetoric. Eliminating indispensable fossil fuels, as Germany is experiencing at an accelerating rate, without replacing it with the equivalent of alternative energy, would quickly collapse modern society. Think of it as the “Jonestown Massacre” on a global scale.
By Robert A. Bishop, LifeSite, Feb 17, 2023
Link to report: Research by GTK: current mineral resources are not enough to build an infrastructure based on fossil-free energy.
By Staff, Geological Survey of Finland, Apr 12, 2022
Green Energy: Greatest Wealth Transfer to the Rich in History
By Steve Goreham, Master Resource, Feb 21, 2023
Rank Innumeracy On The Cost Of Electricity From Renewables
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Feb 21, 2023
Net Zero by 2050? We need about 10,000 years of current Lithium production to get there first
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 22, 2023
But if warming is bad…
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 22, 2023
“One way to raise awareness of the looming catastrophe caused by the greenhouse effect and global warming caused by fossil fuels is, apparently, to build a greenhouse, heat it with fossil fuels and grow things inside it that can’t grow outside because it’s too cold where you live.”
Climate Cartels Plan to Cancel Single Family Homes, Private Cars
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Mar 1, 2023
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 1, 2023
“But the Bank of Canada says otherwise. They’re more expensive and pushing them is driving inflation: ‘The slowest but perhaps the most persistent trend is associated with the ongoing transition from fossil fuels to green energy. The transition requires an immense reallocation of investments which raises costs due to higher demand for new investment and lack of investment supply into fossil fuel production. These cost pressures are exacerbated by the long time required to build green energy infrastructure, further boosting prices for fossil fuels. This shift to relatively higher energy prices will also contribute to challenges for monetary policy to keep inflation on target over the long term.’”
Green Jobs
Energy Efficiency
By Tony Heller His Blog, Mar 2, 2023
“Solar produces less than 3% of US electricity, and its advocates are bragging that this requires 40% of the US energy workforce.”
Funding Issues
The World Bank Takes a Wrong Turn
Biden’s firing of bank president puts a question mark over its future.
By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Energy, Feb 27, 2023
“In a 1998 paper, Anne Krueger, a former vice president for research at the bank, argued that after the opening up of global capital markets to most countries outside Africa, the World Bank faced three choices: it could be a development bank focused solely on poor countries; it could continue to operate in all developing countries, but focus on ‘soft issues’ like the environment; or it could close down.”
How Larry Fink turned your pension fund into leftist activist machine
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 3, 2023
Is The ESG Colossus Stumbling
By Tilak Doshi Contributor, Reposted from Forbes, WUWT, Feb 22, 2023
The Political Games Continue
Offshore wind impact probe proposed
By David Wojick, CFACT, Feb 20, 2023
Litigation Issues
German court rejects farmer’s climate suit vs Volkswagen
A German court has rejected a farmer’s bid to force automaker Volkswagen to end the sale of vehicles with combustion engines by 2030
By The Associated Press, Feb 24, 2023
“In the case at the state court in the western town of Detmold, farmer Ulf Allhoff-Cramer said that drier soil and heavier rains because of climate change are harming his fields, cattle and commercial forests.”
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Drivers could be hit with new ‘tyre tax’ in crackdown on emissions
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 27, 2023
“’Tyre and brake wear pollution is expected to be the next battleground for clean air campaigners after drivers switch to electric vehicles.’”
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
The shameless blackmail by the wind industry is a golden opportunity for the Chancellor
The government should reject the wind industry’s crude blackmail and cancel contracts that appear to have been obtained on the basis of false representations.
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Mar 3, 2023
Green levies aren’t falling
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Feb 28, 2023
Shifting the cost of Net Zero from industry to households is unjust and ineffective
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Feb 23, 2023
“The UK government is today announcing that it will force British households to pay an additional charge on their energy bills to reduce the costs of Net Zero for some 300-energy intensive industrial users.”
Future Semiconductor Legislation Needs to Support Critical Mineral Projects
By Shubham Dwivedi & Gregory D. Wischer, Real Clear Energy, Feb 21, 2023
Net Zero Intelligence: British TUC [Trade Union Congress] Demands Net Zero AND Energy Subsidies
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 25, 2023
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Biden-Harris Administration Announces Over $250 Million to Fund Innovative Projects That Tackle Climate Pollution
Press Release, EPA, Mar 1, 2023 [H/t Jim Buell]
“These planning grants, through the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are the first tranche of funding going to states, local governments, Tribes, and territories from the $5 billion Climate Pollution Reduction Grants (CPRG) program created by President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act.” [Boldface added]
EPA to award $250 million in IRA funds to reduce climate pollution
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Mar 1, 2023
“The funds are the first in $5 billion in grant funding allocated by the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA)”
EPA outlines another $550 million toward addressing environmental inequity
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Feb 23, 2023
Energy Issues – Non-US
Germany Faces $1 Trillion Challenge to Plug Massive Power Gap
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 28, 2023
From Bloomberg, UK:: “’The pending price tag for future-proofing the country’s energy system is projected to amount to over $1 trillion by 2030, according to BloombergNEF. The costs include investments in upgrading power grids and above all new generation to manage the phase out of nuclear and coal plants, handle increased demand from electric cars and heating systems, and meet climate commitments.’” [Boldface added]
A Marshall Plan for Energy Security
By James ‘Spider’ Marks, Real Clear Energy, Feb 21, 2023
Gas Power Is Cheaper Than Wind, Despite Carbon Brief’s Claims
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 2, 2023
Energy Issues – Australia
Australian renewables integration: Part 1
By Chris Morris & Planning Engineer (Russ Schussler), Climate Etc. Mar 2, 2023
“Forty years ago, Australia had an electricity system delivering cheap, reliable power. That is no longer the case. Development and change have been driven by politics and dogma, not engineering and economics.”
Wind, Solar, and Household Electricity Prices
By Mike Jonas, WUWT, Feb 20, 2023
Energy Issues — US
Another Dangerous Proposal
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Feb 28, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Why not apply the concept of VPP (Virtual Power Plants) to the now heavily subsidized computer chip manufacturing?]
Brace Yourself for Coming Electricity Shortages
By Staff, Institute for Energy Research, Mar 2, 2023
How could the Aurora Borealis affect energy grids when renewables are added to the mix?
Press Release, University of Oklahoma, Feb 23, 2023
Link to award abstract: CAREER: Untangling Chaotic Electromagnetic Transient Phenomena in Power Systems Mixed with Volatile Inverter-Based Renewable Energy Resources
By Staff, NSF, Jan 26, 2023
New York Independent System Operator Information for Policy Makers
By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, Feb 25, 2023
“Unfortunately, the Scoping Plan is just a conglomeration of control strategies that are projected to provide the emission reductions required. The Plan did not do any feasibility analyses or address any ‘what if” questions raised by the NYISO.”
Washington’s Control of Energy
How FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) can protect the grid from wind and solar
By David Wojick, CFACT, Feb 24, 2023
“Proposed FERC rule: In order to be approved for interconnection an intermittent generator must have sufficient backup.”
[SEPP Comment: Does FERC really care about electricity reliability?]
The Politics of and Opportunity for Permitting Reform
By Alex Flint, Real Clear Energy, Feb 26, 2023
“About 80 percent of U.S. energy is derived from fossil fuels. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we will need to replace extensive portions of our current energy system. Our permitting requirements preclude that.”
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
How U.S. Shale Changed The Face Of Global Politics
By Michael Kern, Oil Price.com, Feb 28, 2023
China is Locking Up Future Natural Gas Supplies
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 22, 2023
U.S. LNG Giant Sees Revenues More Than Double
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Feb 27, 2023
Return of King Coal?
Joe Biden Meets the Tar Baby
By Duggan Flanakin, Real Clear Energy, Feb 22, 2023
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks, Chemical Spills & Consequences
Vinyl Chloride And The Ohio Train Derailment
By Joe Schwarcz, ACSH, Feb 21, 2023
Bipartisan bill would tighten federal oversight of trains carrying hazardous materials
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Mar 2, 2023
EPA to require Norfolk Southern to test directly for dioxins in East Palestine
By Julia Shapero, The Hill, Mar 2, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Reliable vs. Intermittent Generation: A Primer (Part I & II)
By Bill Schneider, Master Resource, Mar 1& 2, 2023
Part I: https://www.masterresource.org/renewable-energy-fallacies/reliable-vs-intermittent-schneider-i/
Part IIhttps://www.masterresource.org/renewable-energy-fallacies/reliable-vs-intermittent-schneider-ii/
[SEPP Comment: Washington fighting inflation by feeding parasites. Part II bogs down with excessive acronyms.]
Demands for more subsidy expose the illusion of falling wind power costs
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Mar 1, 2023
“Notes for Editors: Articles and studies on unrealistic offshore wind bids for Contracts for Difference.”
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 1, 2023
“Yet Parker Gallant calculates that on February 19th alone wind turbines in Ontario cranked out so much unneeded power, at $135/MWh, that we ended up selling 69k MW to Michigan, New York and Quebec at a loss of $9.62 million, meaning we paid $759.51/MWh for the 12,666 MW we kept. As with Pyrrhus, more savings like that and we’ll be bankrupt.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
SMH: Aussie Hydrogen Export Plans At Risk from US Hydrogen Development
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 24, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Energy Storage Systems Can Build a Greener Future
By Bahadir Yetki, Real Clear Energy, Feb 28, 2023
“Bahadir Yetki is Chief Executive Officer of Kontrolmatik Technologies and Pomega Energy Storage Technologies.”
[SEPP Comment: No costs?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Middle classes cannot afford electric cars, warns Vauxhall owner
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 28, 2023
Are Electric Vehicles About To Sweep The Country?
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Feb 23, 2023
“Inside EVs on January 18 reports that EVs had a big increase in sales and market share in the U.S. in 2022, going all the way to a 5.8% market share, after only a 3.1% share in 2021. The article somehow omits to mention how much of the sales increase was driven by the latest rounds of massive government subsidies.”
Effect of Higher Battery Costs
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Feb 28, 2023
‘Cars should be limited to 20mph to avoid an e-scooter ban’
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 27, 2023
EV Lobby Hates The Fact That EVs Cost Too Much
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 2, 2023
“After all, an EV with 75,000 miles on the clock. not untypical for company cars, would be virtually worthless given that the battery would be near the end of its life.”
USPS to purchase 9,000 electric vehicles, install 14,000 charging stations
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Mar 1, 2023
Postmaster General “DeJoy maintained that the USPS did not have the funds for a larger EV order, but in December 2022 announced that $3 billion in Inflation Reduction Act funds would be used to expand the USPS EV order, and that new vehicles would be 100 percent electric after 2026.”
[SEPP Comment: Washington: Squander money to reduce inflation?]
California Dreaming
A Very Expensive Winter
By Lucas Davis, Energy Institute at Haas, Feb 21, 2023
“High natural gas and electricity prices have already spurred a special meeting of the California Public Utilities Commission and Governor Newsom has called for a Federal investigation. It will be interesting to see what comes of this.”
[SEPP Comment: The governor’s energy policies have nothing to do with high cost to consumers?]
Rapidly Shifting Scam
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Mar 3, 2023
Video: https://realclimatescience.com/2023/03/rapidly-shifting-scam-2/
Text: https://realclimatescience.com/2023/03/rapidly-shifting-scam/
California Dreaming
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 18, 2023
“But this suicidal lurch to solar power brings with it a much greater geopolitical risk. A grid that is wholly dependent on batteries would put California at the mercy of China’s monopoly of batteries and the raw materials that go into them.
“And once California has gone down that path, there would be no way back.”
Tijuana River sewage may be contaminating air along Southern California coast: study
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Mar 2, 2023
Link to paper: Bacterial and Chemical Evidence of Coastal Water Pollution from the Tijuana River in Sea Spray Aerosol
By Matthew A. Pendergraft, et al. Environmental Science & Trchnology, Mar 2, 2023
[SEPP Comment: No discussion of measured concentrations of airborne pollutants. It is not clear but apparently pollutants come from a mixing of waters from storm sewers with sanitary sewers in Tijuana, not California.]
Health, Energy, and Climate
Scotland first to ban environmentally harmful anaesthetic
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 3, 2023
“It’s hard to describe just how appalling and irresponsible this decision is:”
[SEPP Comment: In 1972, the US EPA banned DDT, for which indoor spraying was very effective in stopping the spread malaria. The environmentalists war against humanity continues.]
California particle pollution linked to heightened risk of heart attack: study
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Feb 24, 2023
Link to paper: Association of Long-term Exposure to Particulate Air Pollution With Cardiovascular Events in California
By Stacey E. Alexeeff, et al. JAMA Network, Feb 24, 2023
“They found that exposure to PM 2.5 at concentrations between 12 and 13.9 micrograms per cubic meter was associated with a 10 percent increased risk of experiencing a heart attack and a 16 percent increased risk of dying from cardiovascular disease — in comparison to exposures under 8 micrograms per cubic meter.”
[SEPP Comment: Absurd statistics?]
‘Forever chemicals’ disrupt key metabolic processes in children and teens: study
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Feb 22, 2023
Link to paper: Metabolic Signatures of Youth Exposure to Mixtures of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances: A Multi-Cohort Study
By Jesse A. Goodrich, et al. Environmental Health Perspectives, Feb 22, 2023
“Three hundred twelve overweight/obese adolescents from the Study of Latino Adolescents at Risk (SOLAR) and 137 young adults from the Southern California Children’s Health Study (CHS) were included in the analysis.” Boldface added
[SEPP Comment: More questionable Bayesian statistics.]
Environmental Industry
Save the whales
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Fed 22, 2023
Other Scientific News
Who really discovered DNA’s structure? Five people.
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Feb 24, 2023
Other News that May Be of Interest
Largest-ever genetic analysis of grapevine varieties reveals how glacial cycles shaped grape domestication and the rise of wine
Press Release, AAAS Science, Mar 2, 2023
Link to paper: Dual domestications and origin of traits in grapevine evolution
By Yang Dong, AAAS Science, Mar 2, 2023
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Al Gore gets dried up in Davos
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 1, 2023
[SEPP Comment: CO2 sucking moisture out of the land, causing droughts?]
Study: Toilet paper adds to ‘forever chemicals’ in wastewater
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Mar 1, 2023
Link to paper: Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances in Toilet Paper and the Impact on Wastewater Systems
By Jake T. Thompson, et al. Environmental & Science Technology Letters, Mar 1, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Will California ban toilet paper as more hazardous than nerve agents?]
Al Gore bombs in Davos
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 22, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Rain bombs are falling on my head?]
Radio 2 DJ Scott Mills misses holiday after getting locked in electric car for five hours
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 2, 2023
“’Get in the car. Car doesn’t start. In fact, nothing works. I go to get out of the car. I can’t get out. Sam tries his door. Nothing. Also cannot leave the car.’”
US military seeks to brew jet fuel from the air
By Saul Elbein, The Hill, Feb 28, 2023
“Last summer’s Inflation Reduction Act, which provides incentives for the production of alternative fuels, will help to make them cost-competitive with fossil fuels at lower production volumes, [Air Company Chief Technology Officer] said.”
[SEPP Comment: Why not put wind turbines on jet fighters?]
ARTICLES
Biden’s Regulatory Deluge
Gridlock in D.C.? Nope, the administrative state is at full throttle.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Feb. 27, 2023
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins:
“If you thought the GOP takeover of the House means gridlock in Washington prevails, think again. Rule by regulation is accelerating and the only check will be the courts.
President Biden is leading an unprecedented expansion of the administrative state. In two years his Administration has imposed 517 regulatory actions with some $318 billion in total costs. By the same point in his Administration, President Obama had imposed 740 comparable rules with a cost of $208 billion. Across four years President Trump imposed 1,340 rules at a cost of $64.7 billion.
These figures come from the American Action Forum, which says that in 2022 alone federal agencies finalized 264 regulations with economic impact, totting up $117.1 billion in net regulatory costs. Another 311 proposed rules are in the pipeline and would cost $191.2 billion when final. Twenty-three of those rules will cost $1 billion each.
Regulatory costs to the economy are now reckoned to be at least $2 trillion, or roughly 8% of U.S. gross domestic product in 2021, according to Wayne Crews at the Competitive Enterprise Institute. If you think of regulation as a tax, Mr. Crews notes, it would be larger than the federal income tax and come out to around $14,684 per family. If the cost of U.S. regulation were a country, it would rank a little behind France’s GDP.
Regulators are now in high gear as they write rules to implement the gusher of legislation from the last Democratic Congress. But they are also hard at work imposing new rules by rewriting old statutes to impose policies they can’t get through Congress.
A glance at the regulation tracker by the Brookings Institution is bracing. Rule-makings in various stages of the pipeline cover everything from “phasedown of hydrofluorocarbons” (EPA) to “climate-related disclosures for public companies” (SEC), “rule to reduce robocalls” (FCC), “lowering the cost of federal student loan payments” (Education), “menthol cigarette ban” (FDA, HHS) and “sex discrimination in schools” (Education). And much more.
Looking at the overall rule count is even worse. The Constitution grants the power to make laws to Congress, not agencies. But in calendar 2021, Mr. Crews notes, agencies issued 3,257 rules, including 105 last-minute Trump rules, while Congress passed 143 laws. Last year they added another 3,168 rules in the Federal Register to go with 247 laws passed by Congress. That’s 13 rules from unelected agencies for every one law from elected legislators.
In his first days in office, Mr. Biden revoked Trump Administration executive orders designed to temper the regulatory state. One Trump order to reduce regulation (nicknamed “one in, two out”) required that for every new regulation from the executive branch, two were eliminated. Mr. Biden repealed it.
Also axed was a Trump executive order requiring agencies to make “guidance” documents available to taxpayers on public portals. The hope was for a little sunlight on the opaque actions of regulators. In 2019 then California Sen. Kamala Harris co-sponsored the Guidance Out of Darkness Act to require agencies to have portals that would let taxpayers see what they are up to.
These days bureaucratic secrecy is in. The White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs is supposed to review new proposed rules and examine costs and benefits. Even the Obama regulatory shop reined in the bureaucracy on occasion. In the Biden White House it’s largely a rubber stamp.”
The article gives a chart of estimate regulatory cost by year with peak years in 2021 and 20 21 reaching $200,000,000,000.00. It then concludes:
“Congress could use the power of the purse, but that’s difficult given that Democrats still run the Senate. That means the only real check is through lawsuits and the courts. The Supreme Court’s West Virginia v. EPA decision last year means agencies can’t rewrite rules on “major questions” without a clear command from Congress. That should save the day on several of the worst new rules, such as the Federal Trade Commission’s new ban on non-compete clauses for 30 million workers.
But that still leaves considerable running room for rules that cost less than $100 million, and the Biden bureaucracy will test the limits of the law. The burden of rule by regulators will slow economic growth and show up in nearly everything you pay for.”
The incredible number of errors in the Post Normal world of “Climate Science ” are almost endless. I have found it true that many on the left (the mildly political, those that work and raise families), to busy to spend hundreds of hours of research necessary to really understand a subject, will, if approached with kindness by a family member or a friend they respect, despite not sharing the same political views, make an effort to understand a different than MSM perspective. If this opportunity for dialogue is granted, how it is presented is crucial, as those opportunities are rare.
(COVID and Climate Change) are run by the same WEF crowd, with the same FUD tactics. Heck, they honed their skills on climate change.
Consider to share this overview, as it is an excellent red pill article for many reasons. Red pill a sincere but NPR BBC indoctrinated statist on one issue, and you red pill them on all.
It really has been successful with many, as it focuses on the basics and very difficult to argue with, and proves the political motivations. Challenge a friend or family member that, post reading, they will admit to at least 10 clear facts regarding “Climate Change”, they never heard on the MSM. It starts slow, as it is designed for the majority that know very little, and warms up nicely.
https://open.substack.com/pub/anderdaa7/p/global-warming?r=slvym&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
“I have found it true that many on the left (the mildly political, those that work and raise families), to busy to spend hundreds of hours of research necessary to really understand a subject…”
More like a fact about human nature regardless of where on the political spectrum one is.
Leaders from the world’s poorest nations poured out their disappointment and bitterness at a UN summit on Sunday over the treatment of their countries by richer counterparts.
Many made pointed calls for the developed powers to come good with billions of dollars of promised aid to help them escape poverty and battle climate change.
https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20230305-leaders-from-world-s-poorest-nations-unleash-anger-and-despair-at-un-summit
I cannot believe either Happer or Lindzen would write such nonsense, they both know better. The atmosphere is a part of Earth, there is no “energy” going “back” from the atmosphere to “Earth”.
Rather in a clear sky scenario, there would simply just be 3W/m2 less radiation going out, which is all that matters. However, thanks to my poineering work, we know it is actually just 2W/m2 once we include clouds and real surface emissivity. Something that Wijngaarden cautiously confirmed here..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfwnKWIWPzk#t=3767s
https://greenhousedefect.com/the-holy-grail-of-ecs/a-total-synthesis-the-ecs-estimate
Depends on what you define as system boundaries.
Nothing gets hotter than the object with the highest temperature. Powers do not add. Temperature difference rules.
In a sense the 3W/m^2 or your estimate of 2W/m^2 is simply a push to get the ball rolling. A person should examine what goes on at the earth’s surface too. With an IR active atmosphere between the boundaries the 3W/m^2 at the top can become 4.5W/m^2 at the surface by the time energy balance is restored.
You do not understand..
Regarding Miles Allen’s work. Peer review equals pal review. This issue was even mentioned in the Climategate whitewashes (the phrase used by Graham Stringer, MP’, to describe the Oxburgh enquiry, of which he was part). I think it was the US enquiry which suggested that statistical expertise be brought in to review statistical matters but this doesn’t seem to have happened. It is like believing that a report compiled by the Guild of Village Idiots would be miraculously improved by having it reviewed by other village idiots.
For CO2 to be saturated it would require that a significant fraction of the CO2 molecules are in their ground energy state at every instant in time. I doubt that is true.
RoRo car carrier fire off Vietnam under investigation-
Car Carrier Suffers Fire Off Vietnam (gcaptain.com)
Heavy frost and snowfall in the Midwest.
Snowfall in the mountains of California.
Messy doesn’t even describe it. In the early 1980s the late Art Lange and I were owners of a geophysical exploration company working on geothermal resources in Nevada. In order to make surveys searching for anomalous heat flow and subsurface temperature as an indication of faults carrying hydrothermal fluids near surface, we had a technique of putting 3 meter long strings of calibrated thermometers downa PVC sleeve, letting the temperature disturbance of putting these in the soil decay away, logging the temperatures and moving on. We could cover large areas this way but the complications included removing the annual temperature signal which propagated into the soil and having to come up with a credible value of thermal diffusivity from the data itself.
I won’t go into the technical details of inverting the observations to find all the unknown disturbances, but it was a good thing we were looking at unusually large temperature variations in the near surface faults. The variations in surface energy input and diffusivity are surprisingly large and won’t allow a person to estimate very precisely a temperature trend.
California will receive heavy rainfall from the Pacific Ocean in four days.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/03/12/1200Z/wind/isobaric/700hPa/orthographic=-124.65,46.32,562