By Paul Homewood
From the Telegraph:
Investment in oil and gas production will be needed for the next three decades if the world is to avoid more shortages and price swings, BP has warned.
The oil giant said in its annual energy outlook published on Monday that fossil fuels are still likely to account for about 20pc of primary energy in 2050 even under a significant tightening of climate policies.
Spencer Dale, chief economist at BP, said investment in new wells would therefore be needed until 2050 to ensure supply of fossil fuels matches demand.
“Natural declines in existing production sources mean there needs to be continuing upstream investment in oil and natural gas over the next 30 years,” he wrote in the report.
The assessment is likely to spark backlash from climate groups and campaigners who argue that investment should be immediately stopped in order to meet net zero goals.
Greta Thunberg told world leaders at Davos earlier this month that new extraction should be stopped immediately, while UN chief António Guterres said last June: “New funding for fossil fuels is delusional.” The International Energy Agency said in 2021 that no new oil, gas or coal projects should be approved if the world was to stay on track to meet a goal of net zero emissions by 2050.
However, BP said continued supply of oil and gas was needed to prevent a repeat of the kind of disruption seen last year when Russian oil and gas supplies were drastically cut back following the invasion of Ukraine.
Full story
These climate groups and campaigners have no concept of the realities of life. If they got their way, and all coal/oil/gas were stopped, we’d be looking at millions of deaths. They simply do not understand, or deny, that hydrocarbon fuels and their derivative materials and products literally keep us alive.
An important function of the modern world is providing a production and transportation infrastructure that supports a world population of nearly eight billion. eliminating fossil fuels will take us back to 1930’ish living conditions. Food production and transport would plummet, at this time Denver Colorado is -16C just staying warm would be impossible. The 1930 world population was about two billion I think we would quickly die back to that number.
It’s actually a very simple question…
Can electricity, with all the mining, processing and manufacturing necessary to develop and install the needed infrastructure and generation capacity that will be required, replace FF as the only energy source utilized to propel a modern society in only 8 years?
Consider we currently don’t mine sufficient copper (just copper) GLOBALLY to replace the current FF transportation fleet of ANY nation let alone ALL nations with Electric Vehicles
Consider the U.S. has 289M autos, 4M Commercial Trucks and 1M Busses that run on Gas or Diesel and would need to be replaced to eliminate FF in Transportation. Then add in Trains, Ships and Airplanes that run on Diesel and Avgas
Answer is simple. NO. NEVER.
Answer is simple.yes tommorow. dont be caught flat footed,
change is comin
Critical to the transition is enough copper to replace the existing ICE engines. Under the Biden administration, the massive potential copper source of the proposed Pebble Mine in Alaska appears to be shut down. It was just announced that a proposed copper-nickel mine, the NorthMet project, in Minnesota that could supply copper and nickel has been put off limits for at least 20 years. A new proposed copper mine near Superior (AZ) is under pressure because of objections from local indigenous tribes. There are currently strikes going on in South America with Chinese owned copper mines. These aren’t the only mines experiencing barriers to development. They are just some of the larger ones that have been in the news lately.
It typically takes at least a decade to obtain permits and build infrastructure before a mine starts producing. If we are at the leading edge of an accelerated transition in transportation, then the new copper mines should be on line now, not in 10 or 20 years. We will be caught flat-footed because of all the NIMBYs who want a modern life-style and ‘net zero’ technology, but aren’t willing to compromise. Then, there are people like you, and Biden, who apparently subscribe to Disney’s First Law: “Wish and it will come true.”
Clyde, the main barrier is environmental regulations. It used to be a crime to kill eagles until green desires made it a virtue. Copper resources are enormous (USGS recent report 3.5BMT of yet to be discovered) and 1.5BMT of reserves and probable resources + inferred resources (from sparse drill holes and geological knowledge) in existing deposits.
Let’s hope, however, that this meme collapses before all that beautiful copper is turned into scrap.
A decidedly religious tone is now appearing in your contributions here Steve.
Next will come your imploring pleas for tithes to sent to your ministry.
calling out the alarmists here is anti religious, youre the one preaching to the choir
As in “free beer tomorrow”?
Just remember, Today is not Tomorrow. That’ll be Tomorrow
Aah the ephemeral “Tomorrow”…
Do you think it can happen without global government?
(my question was for Steve M, not a snark an actual question, but on my screen the reply indent level stops here, thus an edit/clarification).
Ah, there’s a bit of blind faith!
You don’t even have the slightest concern of the practicality of implementation?
I’d love to hear a quick summary of how you think it might be done.
blind faith? hardly, i merely look at the history of human ingenuity, you guys dont believe in the capacity of humans to adapt and innovate. thats blind mistrust that ignores centuries of evidence.
practicality?I remember the first time i described 3D chips for the PC to software devs. it was 1995. I explain how we had progressed from 1 dollar per pixel to 10 cents and then explained how folks would have 3D on their phone.
these were lessons taught to me in advanced design at northrop aircraft.
you see every smart organization pairs people who think YES WE CAN with a couple of negative Neds who see nothing but problems.
it will happen because Ive seen engineers do amazing things… B2, YF22, B21
Mosh,
I’d love to see your EV’s, those solar panels on your roof, and of course, no connection to the grid. Can you attach pics?
look i can believe in nuclear fission without having one in my basement. I dont drive,
i fly but i dont own a plane? hows that possible?
your argument is stupid
mosher: man will return to the moon
wuwtmoron: ok mosh, wheres your rocket?
Cause I’m gonna be hiiiiiigh
as a kite by then
Can electricity, with all the mining, processing and manufacturing necessary to develop and install the needed infrastructure and generation capacity that will be required, replace FF as the only energy source utilized to propel a modern society in only 8 years?
who said it has to take 8 years. it will take as long as it takes. it will happen because FF are dead or dying or futureless.
If you listen to Biden, the AOC-5 and most of the Dumbo-Crats, we only have until 2032 to solve the CC issues (AKA end fossil fuel extraction) and convert to the All Renewable Panacea.
FF development, extraction and processing must continue well beyond 2032 and likely beyond 2062 (when I turn 100) to allow for the gradual global conversion to electric transportation. Otherwise both you and I will be stranding perfectly functional ICE vehicles and walking everywhere.
Words like “Dumbo-Crats” detract from any other words typed.
Would you prefer Dim-O-Crats?
Do try to remain focused
its good because his other words are moronic
huh? i dont get my science from politicians. but humor me with a citation.
here’s what you did. you picked 2032 out of thin air and ascribed it to two politicians we both hate.
no cookie for bad arguments with no citations.
i wont be walking anywhere.
You can accuse me of anything you like, water and ducks and all. No skin off my nose. 2032 IS the leading timeframe proposed by those aforementioned liberal elites and echoed by their minions ad-nauseam. Twasn’t my arse that extruded it. Straight from the AOC5 and our current corrupter in chief
Pick a video, any video
https://m.youtube.com/results?sp=mAEA&search_query=AOC+%2212+years+to+act%22
The world is going to end in 12 years…this is our WWII
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=r_ovC0N3qfE
No, we are witnesses to their attempted murder.
And, unless you have a practical alternative ready to go, the collateral victims will be human.
But please do not forget. All fossil fuel based products CAN be produced in a laboratory. It just takes more “energy” than extracting the oil/gas and refining it.
I would thing there will ALWAYS be a need for lubricants that are “petroleum based”, even if they are are synthesized from the constituent parts.
Of course for things like plastic containers, we can always go back to Amphora.
amphora?
i cant stand engineers who lack creativity and imagination
thankfully where you see disaster others see opportunity
https://theweek.com/articles/705421/5-weird-materials-that-could-replace-plastic
“i cant stand engineers who lack creativity and imagination
thankfully where you see disaster others see opportunity
https://theweek.com/articles/705421/5-weird-materials-that-could-replace-plastic”
Nothing new there at that link, Mosher.
Biodegradable polymers have been available for decades.
They can work fine for a plastic bag you only use once or twice and don’t get wet. I could build you a better one. Care to pay me?
Try making a car’s windshield wipers out of the same material and you come up short.
Your view of “we can do anything” is only true in a world where cost is irrelevant. We could have colonies on the Moon or Mars right now. But we don’t. For many reasons.
The cost of energy is the most important.
A die-back is the expressed goal.
Sounds plausible, if not likely and intentional.
I also wonder, what is the reason for the intentional flooding of Western nations with millions of third world immigrants?
The reason we’re being flooded with third world illegal immigrants is because we won’t have machinery to do a lot of the mundane labor tasks.
All the landscapers will have to cut the grass with scissors.
Bulldozers need to be replaced with men using shovels (or spoons if there is an excess of unemployment).
Etc.
these are a hoax, but still fun to watch
machinery?
you can do anything without machines ans fossil fuels
https://www.livescience.com/22621-pyramids-giza-sphinx.html
You’re delusional and know nothing about farming. I couldn’t even run my tiny pepper farm without my tractor.
Climate Change refugees.
fear mongering alarmist!!!
2Billion is a good number. its the carrying capacity of earth
How is it that Thomas is a “fear mongering alarmist” when you support his estimate?
its fear monger because its a good number and nothing to fear.
duh
Let the reductions begin.
You first.
i tried but failed, damn doctors
Where did that come from?
If 2 billion were the carrying capacity of Earth, then 6 billion would be warring against 2 billion elites for control of meager food supplies.
If 2 billion were the carrying capacity of Earth, then there would be no international transport of food from countries with SURPLUS food supplies to countries that want more food options.
If 2 billion were the carrying capacity of Earth, then 6 billion would be without energy supplies and freezing in the dark.
The Earth has already shown it can easily support 8 billion people
but not sustainably support.
References?
How does that mesh with “human ingenuity can do anything”?
not anything, but getting rid of FF is a piece of cake.
its already happening
Step 1: shut off the 24/7 Internet
Step 2: No, that could never happen.
2/3 American kids have the TikTok ap on their phone. Someone might ask, where did that stat come from? Years ago someone might have asked instead, where did all those phones come from, and who gave them to kids?
“…we’d be looking at millions of deaths.”
That just might be the objective.
More like billions, and that would make them very happy.
… Until everything collapsed to Medieval economic conditions.
Did the Medieval Lords like their lives?
567,987,832 to be exact, millions, not billions.
That would still leave an Unsustainable 7.4bn population though.
More likely 567,987,832 will be the preferred amount to remain while 7.4bn are rounded up to perish.
Millions of deaths just might be the objective.
____________________________________
Do you really think They get together to hold secret meetings
and discuss this sort of thing as a final goal or solution?
Then of course they are also decommissioning nuclear power
stations and hydroelectric dams. And they tell us to eat bugs.
If you apply the “Duck Test” it does look like millions of deaths
is their objective.
They, already have, and even produced a spreadsheet of where the culling needs to happen
Not Millions…”B” Billions
Try billions of deaths.
milions of deaths? fear monger, stopping coal oil and gas will be no worse than the flu
How do you get from 7 billion to 2 billion without billions of deaths?
Covid Vaccination induced sterility??? 😉
Why not just use one of the other vaccines already required for Western public schools?
Easy, those have been used for years and so wouldn’t cause sterility. A Novel Virus would be required to allow for the cure having “Unforseen Side Effects”
The current flu or the one where people are living cold all winter?
But on earth why would we want to bring on another dose of the flu Steve?
Or the effects of stopping coal, oil & gas?
We don’t have to have either of these events.
You’re not making much sense here Steve.
Only if you no longer desire…
Solar PV generation
…(Coal required to process silica)
Wind Turbine generation
…(Coal required for strong structural steel masts)
…(Petrochemicals required to produce Strong lightweight blades)
Paved Roads
…(Asphalt requires a fractional distillation of crude petroleum.)
Rubber Tires
…(ICE or EV where the Rubber hits the Road…synthetic Rubber)
Insulated Copper Wiring to channel power where needed
…(Plastic Insulation for electronic wiring)
Shoes
…(Rubber Soles)
Warm Jackets
…(Synthetic Insulation)
Elastic Wastebands (undergarments)
…(Elastic made from petrochemicals)
Make-up
…(needs petrochemicals)
Prescription medication bottles
Cell phones
Computers
Light weight components
…(Plastic)
Any of the more than 6000 things we use that are dependent on petrochemicals
Yep. Plenty of unicorns and pixie dust to the rescue. You and your ilk are forgetting the first rule of system design: never scrap what works until the replacement is proven to work under all conditions.
Until replacement works “better” under all conditions.
No point replacing anything with something that doesn’t work better and cost less.
Leave the Proxy Dust to the Proxies
In other words, if it works, don’t fix it.
My grandmother used to say “If it was good once, it’s still good” She was not wrong.
Now, where have I heard that before?
Good to see that you’re showing a sense of humour, Steve. Or at least a sense of irony.
La La Land versus Reality!
The impossibility of net zero is emerging, slowly but surely.
As long as the CliSy rank and file thought they were hurting “them”, no problem.
But slowly but surely the minions are realizing, “Hey! This is hurting ME!”
Forget Net Zero
Believe me, I’d like to.
January 2023
“The drive to reach net zero emissions involves more than 20,000 businesses”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-64440827
“How you can help Britain meet its net zero climate goal”
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2023/jan/20/britain-net-zero-climate-red-meat-carbon-footprint
“Net zero review recommends gas boilers to be phased out in a decade”
https://www.itv.com/news/2023-01-13/net-zero-review-for-uk-recommends-gas-boilers-to-be-phased-out-in-a-decade
Ad bleedin’ nauseam.
Pass the ayahuasca…
What does BP know compared to Greta, King Charles, Joe Biden and AOC?
You forgot John “Why the long face?” Kerry,
Al “the climate blimp” Gore, and
Justin TrueDope
Personal attacks based on appearance. I anxiously anticipate the coming of a 70-year dead German dictator meme.
I read that BP was managing an oil field in Ruzzia that will be shut down since the Ruzzkies are incapable of handling it ….also read that much of Ruzzkie oil is from the frozen lands that require redrilling a well if it is shut down because the ground freezes if oil is not being pumped. Putin is an idiot.
Not to worry. According to the Climate Change Committee’s graphic in the Telegraph’s article, ‘unabated fossil fuel’ generation is eliminated by 2035.
The Climate Change Committee consists entirely of delusional climate alarmists and this graph proves it.
To be clear, the black colour refers to fossil fuels and the light blue refers to wind and solar. The bottom axis extends to 2050.
And therein lies the problem – Parliament.
Re Franks chart pic – the color key and axis labels don’t show up here. No need to fix it, just for future reference.
When I pasted the graphic, it came in sans labels and key. Unfortunately, the Telegraph only allowed me one free bite at the apple, which is why I also wasn’t able to check the drop dead date for ‘unabated fossil fuel’ generation. Oh, well…
Oil and gas?
drawing dead, dont throw good money after bad money.
A clear Moshism, an incredibly stupid comment unhinged from reality.
It is their money to invest……..
You seem to be bothered by a company’s desire to supply oil 10 years from, how come?
Battery EV, impotent transportation format. (Insufficient battery materials available to manufacture 2.2bn vehicles (50 trillion 18650 rechargeable batteries) in 10 or even 50 years. Can’t eliminate oil and gas.) Don’t throw good money after bad
Why do you insist on trying to tell others how to play their hands?
If they are drawing dead, what difference does it make to you … just sit back, shut up, and let them play it out.
such as ‘renewables’ subsides
From the article: “Greta Thunberg told world leaders at Davos earlier this month that new extraction should be stopped immediately”
Citing Greta as an expert.
But, her pronouncements are no dumber than those of UN chief António Guterres.
I would say they were equally dumb. Equally delusional. Their opinions are equally bad for the Western world.
This is who world leaders listen to. That’s why the Western world is on the brink of economic disaster. Listening to fools will do that.
They’re not dumb.
Just effective grifters.
By 2035, both will be very comfortably retired in the lap of luxury on some exotic tropical isle resort that was supposed to be submerged by rising sea level in 2030.
I saw an interesting poll yesterday. Fox News did a poll and were surprised to find that “Poor Leadership” topped the list as the biggest problem for Americans, ahead of even inflation. That’s the first time poor leadership has appeared as the most concerning in the poll. So it appears people are taking notice of how our leadership is failing us.
That’s good. One has to recognize the problem before it can be fixed.
I would say about 99 percent of our problems are due to very poor, delusional leadership across the entire Western world.
With no end in sight, unfortunately.
Green terrorist sycophant Tony Hayward, former pres BP, obviously is gone! Given the ‘discovery’ that oil and gas is going to be needed for the long term, this is a perfect opportunity for an oil and gas boss with the cojones to buy up leases around the world while everyone is waffling on oil’s future (even BP).
Exxon, which has been another Green appeaser, could well become the second or 3rd or 4th largest oil company if a few companies go for it. The prices of oil and gas can’t fail to be strong going forward, given a) the new ‘revaluation’ of this energy source in the minds of customers, b) with the desperate rush back of the totalitarians to fossil fuels to avert (if lucky), massive winter casualties in impoverished Europe. Does anyone actually believe the talentless cowardly ‘leaders’ will actually abandon life-saving oil, gas and coal when spring arrives?
Well, they would say that, wouldn’t they?
Apparently, if you dumb the populace down enough with nonstop propaganda and brainwashing, you can make a vast swathe of them ignorant enough to vote for the morons and clowns ruling most Western democracies! And if enough wake up to try and stop the evil machinations of wealthy elites, there is always election fornification!
Right now the humanity is in a race between the implementation of a perpetual lockdown for the nonexistent “climate emergency,” and the uncovering of the unprecedented corruption between politicians, intelligence agencies and corporations like high tech and big Pharma! Losing brings in a new Dark Age much like a melding of the Matrix and Terminator series; winning could just bring about a new Renaissance! I know which I’d prefer!
Nutz Zero is just a feeble attempt to create an emergency that can then be used to grab more power and control over energy and food. Good thing we have all those altruistic psychopaths inhabiting the highest levels of our governments; you know they’ll always do the right thing!
Why is it always thirty years?
Fusion in thirty years.
Climate Armageddon in thirty years.
Is it to provide enough time to get to retirement?
Net Zero needs to be scrapped today. There is no merit to this madness and zero science.
“fossil fuels are still likely to account for about 20pc of primary energy in 2050″
“about 20pc … 2050”
“20pc”
I wonder if the person who said it really believed it. How did the words “at least” not happen?
That estimate is a joke. By 2050 global FF reliance will still be at least at 60%-65%. Developing countries will continue to drive the demand for cheap, dispatchable energy.
Only 20 percent by 2050? Considering how much disruption was caused by trying to replace about 5% of energy production by renewables over the last few decades, a more likely estimate of fossil fuels’ share of energy production in 2050 would be about 60%.
It is absolutely stunning that Germany, a country renowned for its scientists, somehow thought that it could replace its coal and nuclear plants with solar power, in a country that is also north of 45 degrees latitude and has frequent cloudy weather.
Many Europeans probably blame their current energy shortages on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But possibly the Russians did Europe a favor by shocking them back into the reality that fossil fuels are a necessity, whether they come from Russia or elsewhere.
If we want energy security while reducing CO2 emissions, we should switch to natural gas in the short term, and nuclear energy (fission or fusion, when it is eventually developed) in the long term.
‘It is absolutely stunning that Germany, a country renowned for its scientists…’
Yes, they are pretty well known for science. But aside for a relatively brief free-market period post WWII, Germany is also a country renowned for its economic central planning. Compare and contrast the free market ‘Austrian School’ to the hampered market ‘German Historical School’.
No no…. batteries and the External Combustion Engine will set you FREE from Big Oil!
https://insideevs.com/features/645302/free-electric-vehicle-charging-sucks/
More threat propaganda, demand for hydrocarbon fuel may drop 80% in the next 30 years. The greens may stop their investment on the supply side. And we may all freeze to death in the transition.. yada yada. Is there any evidence that renewable tech will usurp the hydrocarbon market by 80% in 30 years?. Can the world that has been anti-nuke rev up nuke power fast enough for it to impact the global energy market by 80% in 30 years? Maybe, but we would all have to jump on the nuke bandwagon real soon for it to happen.
The concern here is progressive reduced demand over the next 30 years which may or may not happen. Demand may continue to increase, especially if central Asia continues to industrialize and consumerize and Africa follows suit, which will greatly increase demand for energy.
80% decline in demand for hydrocarbon fuel is pipe dream of the climate elite. It’s not happening unless there is global war or a particularly horrible pandemic. So the long term hydrocarbon demand projection is uncertain. It is this uncertainty that is the big issue driving the question about investment. See the concern is about investment and profit, not actual supply of hydrocarbon fuel because the world is awash in hydrocarbon fuel. By definition long term demand projections have always been uncertain…. one Prince, one King, one war changes everything for a while.
In our would of AI marketeering you don’t need actual collusion for the markets to be colluded. When prices are high every tom dick and harry are out there trying to make a buck. If enough of them buck the model, then collusion fails to prevent investment and increased supply. The only way to stop this is through political action and regulation. This is part of the reason the energy market has become very volatile in response to demand…. AI. The reason is there is enormous global supply of hydrocarbon fuel.
When Chevon is making wind fall profits at their current supply, the last thing they want to do is invest to increase supply. If prices drop to a lower margin, then investment and supply has to increase to maintain revenue and stay in business.
Can’t we get griff back rather than Mosher? At least sometimes griff made a little sense and he certainly had a better sense of humour