By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
The effect of the small la Niña southern oscillation is waning. Nevertheless, the New Pause has lengthened from 6 years to 6 years 2 months in the UAH data:
HadCRUT4, after a little prodding, has updated its monthly dataset with three months of new data, taking us up to March 2021. The New Pause in the HadCRUT4 data has lengthened to 7 years 1 month:
How, then, have the real-world data behaved in comparison to the models’ predictions reported by IPCC (1990)? Here is IPCC’s prediction:
Since IPCC’s prediction of 1.8 C° anthropogenic warming is compared with preindustrial temperature, one must deduct the HadCRUT4 0.54 C° warming from 1850 to April 1991. IPCC’s prediction, then, amounted to 1.26 C° by 2030. UAH, however, shows only 0.46 C° in 30 years, equivalent to about 0.61 C° by 2030, of which 70%, or only 0.43 C°, is anthropogenic (Wu et al. 2019).
Therefore, IPCC’s prediction in 1990, on which the global-warming scare – justifiably described by Professor Lindzen in an excellent recent lecture as “absurd” – was based, has turned out to be a near-threefold exaggeration compared with sober reality.
Here is why. Today’s global mean surface temperature is 288.6 K, comprising 255.2 K emission temperature and a 33.4 K greenhouse effect. The 33.4 K comprises 7.2 K direct warming by, or reference sensitivity to, natural (6.2 K) and anthropogenic (1 K) greenhouse gases, and 26.2 K feedback response. Of this 26.2 K, 25.5 K is feedback response to emission temperature and 0.7 K to direct warming by greenhouse gases. Of this 0.7 K, 0.6 K is feedback response to naturally-occurring and 0.1 K to anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
Today’s system-gain factor, the ratio of equilibrium temperature after feedback response to reference temperature before it, is thus 288.6 / (255.2 + 7.2), or 1.1. Reference sensitivity to doubled CO2 is the product of the 3.52 W m–2 doubled-CO2 forcing (Zelinka et al. 2020) and the Planck parameter 0.3 K W–1 m2: i.e., 1.05 K. Equilibrium sensitivity to doubled CO2, the product of 1.05 K and the system-gain factor 1.1, is thus about 1.15 K – about the same as the anthropogenic global warming we may expect in the whole of the 21st century.
Consequently, the 3.9 K mean midrange prediction in the latest-generation (CMIP6) models (Zelinka et al. 2020) is a more-than-threefold overstatement, which arises because climate scientists imagine there is no feedback response to emission temperature. Their system-gain factor 26.2 / 6.2, or 4.2, exceeds the real-world 1.1 almost fourfold.
Come on, guys! When are you going to notice that the Sun is shining? It is the Sun that is responsible for very nearly all feedback response in today’s climate. Reference and equilibrium sensitivities are about the same, and one can neglect feedback response altogether in derivation of equilibrium sensitivities without significant error. Reference sensitivities are all you need. And that ends the climate emergency.
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Using the basic UAH graph, it is undeniable that the 5 year trend, over the last 42 years, has gone up consistently, increasing about 0.5*C.
The question is WHY? CO2? What else? Some unknown solar causes affiliated with sunspots and solar-geo-magnetism? Other unknowns? Milankovitch Cycle?
Or simply normal cyclical variance?
Most of the cycles that we have been discussing weren’t known 20 or 30 years ago.
That there may still be cycles yet undiscovered is almost a certainty.
The PDO was discovered c. 1996 by a UW fisheries biologist.
“Climate scientists” weren’t interested in natural oceanic oscillations, or in observing nature much at all. Just computer gaming and adjusting station and SST “data”.
The temperatures went up from about 1910 to 1940 at the same rate as they rose during the satellite era (1979 to present) with much less CO2 in the atmosphere then than now, so it would appear that something natural (Mother Nature) caused the earlier warming, and there is no reason to assume it isn’t causing the current warming. If it happened once, it can happen again.
Could someone please just fill in the dates?
Old Pause ended [day/month/year]
New Pause started [day/month/year]
Old Pause ended in 2/16. New Pause presently extends back to 4/15.
Ultimately, as huge swathes of the world are estimated temps who knows what is going on. Africa, comprising of a huge land mass, is mostly estimated and had been for decades- like visiting the doctor and he estimates your temp and adds on a few hundredths of a degree each year to scare you into taking some drugs specifically for the week of mind who believe his snake oil salesmanship.
weak
“In January 2005, NOAA began recording temperatures at its newly built U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN). USCRN includes 114 pristinely maintained temperature stations spaced relatively uniformly across the lower 48 states. NOAA selected locations that were far away from urban and land-development impacts that might artificially taint temperature readings.”
“The USCRN has eliminated the need to rely on, and adjust the data from, outdated temperature stations. Strikingly, as shown in the graph below, USCRN temperature stations show no warming since 2005 when the network went online. If anything, U.S. temperatures are now slightly cooler than they were 14 years ago”
“The U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) was established to give the most accurate temperature readings compared to the old Cooperative Observer Network (COOP) which suffers from urban encroachment, siting problems, and a multitude of human induced inhomgeneities such as station moves, incomplete data, closed stations, and runway condition stations at airports that were never designed to report climate data”
Look at cooling degree day days graph for the U.S. That goes back to 1997 and shows minimal increase. That would indicate little Tmax change over the period. That is approaching the 15 year period for observing climate change.
Difficult to tell how much of a change there has been against the large seasonal variation.
NOAA’s 12 month values makes the increase more obvious.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/national/time-series/110/cdd/12/4/1997-2021?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1901&endbaseye
How can there be pause or cooling when we are in climate emergency from warming?
On the other hand CNBC talking about people in Austin concerned about cold winter and considering moving? What exactly are we concerned about? Fonda says we have 9 years but she knows less than zero.. trying to predict as Gore (failure) has in past