From NOAA HEADQUARTERS (via EurekaAlert) and the “Climate Refugees” department comes this inane claim that can easily be explained by natural ocean current pattern changes such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Meridontal Oscillation, but instead get the universal boogeyman of “climate change” applied as the driver. Takeaway: “the global average number of tropical cyclones each year has not budged from 86 over the last four decades”.
Study: Climate change has been influencing where tropical cyclones rage
While the global average number of tropical cyclones each year has not budged from 86 over the last four decades, climate change has been influencing the locations of where these deadly storms occur, according to new NOAA-led research published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
New research indicates that the number of tropical cyclones has been rising since 1980 in the North Atlantic and Central Pacific, while storms have been declining in the western Pacific and in the southern Indian Ocean.
“We show for the first time that this observed geographic pattern cannot be explained only by natural variability,” said Hiroyuki Murakami, a climate researcher at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and lead author.
Murakami used climate models to determine that greenhouse gases, manmade aerosols including particulate pollution, and volcanic eruptions were influencing where tropical cyclones were hitting.
3 forces influence where storms are hitting
Greenhouse gases are warming the upper atmosphere and the ocean. This combines to create a more stable atmosphere with less chance that convection of air currents will help spawn and build up tropical cyclones.
Particulate pollution and other aerosols help create clouds and reflect sunlight away from the earth, causing cooling, Murakami said. The decline in particulate pollution due to pollution control measures may increase the warming of the ocean by allowing more sunlight to be absorbed by the ocean.
Diminishing manmade aerosols is one of the reasons for the active tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic over the last 40 years, Murakami said. However, toward the end of this century, tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic are projected to decrease due to the “calming” effect of greenhouse gases.
Volcanic eruptions have also altered the location of where tropical cyclones have occurred, according to the research. For example, the major eruptions in El Chichón in Mexico in 1982 and Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991 caused the atmosphere of the northern hemisphere to cool, which shifted tropical cyclone activity southward for a few years. Ocean warming has resumed since 2000, leading to increased tropical cyclone activity in the northern hemisphere.
Looking ahead: Scientists predict fewer tropical cyclones by 2100 but likely more severe
Climate models project decreases in tropical cyclones toward the end of the 21st century from the annual average of 86 to about 69 worldwide, according to the new study. Declines are projected in most regions except in the Central Pacific Ocean, including Hawaii, where tropical cyclone activity is expected to increase.
Despite a projected decline in tropical cyclones by 2100, many of these cyclones will be significantly more severe. Why? Rising sea surface temperatures fuel the intensity and destructiveness of tropical storms.
“We hope this research provides information to help decision-makers understand the forces driving tropical cyclone patterns and make plans accordingly to protect lives and infrastructure,” Murakami said.
###
Earth to Planet Dork
Please leave us alone. We have enough problems right now.
This has been the stance of Kerry Emanuel for some time.
Except his predictions go out to the year 6666?
He’s a paid alarmist.
We show for the first time
Further studies will show ??? 😀
Fund bait 😀
Correction: we don’t show, we guess from our wild-ass assumptions to fit the funding narrative
“We show for the first time that this observed geographic pattern cannot be explained only by natural variability,”
don’t know sh1t
There’s that phrase again–‘Murakami used climate models to determine that…’
(Delete)
“We show for the first time that this observed geographic pattern cannot be explained only by natural variability,” said Hiroyuki Murakami, a climate researcher at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and lead author.
Murakami used climate models……
Why both reading further? ….to show something cannot be explained by natural variability! Through the use of models! The lack of the use of the logic of scientific discovery is clear.
It’s a comfort to me that this fiction wasn’t written by Haruki Murakami, who I much admire as an author of fiction. He would have done a better job of it.
What they fail to comprehend, seemingly willfully, is that natural variability IS climate change.
Only in Climate “Science” are the outputs of computer models considered to be data. In every other field of scientific enquiry data are generated from observation of the external world.
WRONG!! We have now discovered the same science-FICTION practiced by the CDC pandemic “experts”. Lots of bureaucrat “modelers” passing as “scientists”. 2-3 MILLION DEAD Americans!! predicted the CDC models. OMG!! Do something! Shut-DOWN the BOOMING Trump Economy!!
Question: do models ONLY have the capability to predict doom, gloom, and utter annihilation of the human species? Where are the models that produce happy results? Hint: This was my first clue to utter bullshittery in the “modeling community”
“…the global average number of tropical cyclones each year has not budged from 86..”
Budge verb (I or T)
Def. If something will not budge or you cannot budge it, it will not move:
For example “I’ve tried moving the desk but it won’t budge/I can’t budge it.”
If at first you don’t succee… try, try again??
Venus: 96% CO2, No Hurricanes
Mars: 96% CO2, No Hurricanes
Conclusion: More CO2, Less Hurricanes.
And don’t forget:
http://phzoe.com/2020/04/29/the-irrelevance-of-geothermal-heat-flux/
“Greenhouse gases are warming the upper atmosphere and the ocean. This combines to create a more stable atmosphere with less chance that convection of air currents will help spawn and build up tropical cyclones.”
Yes, conclusion was that ‘greenhouse gas’ increases leads to less chance of tropical cyclones.
“…Yes, conclusion was that ‘greenhouse gas’ increases leads to less chance of tropical cyclones…”
It wasn’t 15 years ago or so. People like Chris Landsea rightly argued that the historical record was skewed towards the present and that historical storms were undercounted. This summarizes some of his points easily https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/historical-atlantic-hurricane-and-tropical-storm-records/
Even 8 yrs ago, the narrative was being pushed…https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/global-warming-is-causing-more-hurricanes-8212584.html – Global warming is ‘causing more hurricanes’
The atmosphere can no more heat the oceans than a chihuahua can lift an elephant.
Heat energy flows from the oceans into the atmosphere. The oceans hold 1,000 x as much heat as the atmosphere.
If you put the fulcrum at the right point such that the bar plus Elephant is balanced then a Chihuahua could lift an Elephant
By that standard, “nothing” could lift and elephant.
Bryan: We’re told heat is IR and that IR is comprised of photons. We’re also told photons have no mass . Thus, photons can’t be leveraged. Neither can heat.
Yes you can focus heat but that is not the ACO2 dogma. It’s mystic diffuse and dilute heat swimming up stream toward the hotter surface that it originated from in the first place.
If the atm was heating the ocean I would guess we all be long gone by now.
This blog would no longer exist….
In classic thermodynamics heat flows from higher temperatures to lower temperatures. A cold ocean(most of it) can’t heat the atmosphere.
Modern electronics can be tweaked, outside of Classic Thermo to use electrical energy to transfer heat from one side of a sheet to the other, and electrical refrigerator.
The oceans transfer heat to the atmosphere through convective formation of clouds in the atmosphere. Evaporation of water takes a lot of energy(~32cal/gr) and moves it into the air where it causes the convention.
Then what is the Gulf Stream doing in moderating the UK climate?
Yes. Try boiling a pan of water with a blow lamp on the surface. This why the oceans never get much above 35C in spite of tens of thousands of years of solar radiation.
Surface water on Venus – 0
Surface water on Mars – 0
Where do hurricanes develop? Over water.
Whirly winds don’t need water.
CO2 Fluid – what is found on Venus should suffice. No?
No
“At temperatures between –56.6 and +31.1°C, and pressures of at least 5.2 bar, CO2 can exist in liquid form.”
“The temperature at the surface is 740 K (467 °C, 872 °F), and the pressure is 93 bar (9.3 MPa), ”
The CO2 at Venus is gaseous.
Past 74 bar, CO2 is a supercritical fluid.
Gases are fluids too..
No. Gases are not fluids. And it is quite unknown what effect on climate it has that the lowermost part of the atmosphere of Venus is a supercritical fluid.
By the way a supercritical fluid is neither a gas nor a fluid, but have some of characteristics of both.
Jack,
For CO2, above 30.98C and 72.79 atm, is all supercritical FLUID.
https://chem.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/General_Chemistry/Map%3A_General_Chemistry_(Petrucci_et_al.)/12%3A_Intermolecular_Forces%3A_Liquids_And_Solids/12.4%3A_Phase_Diagrams#Summary
“Page not found
Close message
Sorry, the page at https://chem.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/General_Chemistry/Map%3A_General_Chemistry_(Petrucci_et_al could not be found.”
That being said, your logic is bizarre.
How is my logic bizarre?
CO2 is more viscous than H2O and H2O Vapor.
The more CO2 you add to water and/or water vapor, the more viscous it becomes.
The more viscous, the more energy needed to stir up a hurricane.
Sticky (viscous) things are more difficult for whirly winds.
QED
What’s wrong with this?
@Jack Dale
Try this:
https://chem.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/General_Chemistry/Map%3A_General_Chemistry_(Petrucci_et_al
https://chem.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/General_Chemistry/Map%3A_General_Chemistry_(Petrucci_et_al.)/12%3A_Intermolecular_Forces%3A_Liquids_And_Solids/12.4%3A_Phase_Diagrams#Summary
That should work.
Last try 😀
Total BS, it’s simply to long :-/
Zoe:
Try – https://tinyurl.com/
It’s the evaporation of water that provides the energy for hurricanes.
Evaporation is an energy drain.
You need energy for it.
Do you mean condesation?
Warm water evaporates, that wet air gets elevated by the hurricane where it condenses, causing the air to rise further and faster.
It’s the reason why hurricanes start to die once their eyes get over land.
“Conclusion: More CO2, Less Hurricanes.”
Actually it would be fewer hurricanes.
The way hurricanes are measured & reported is misleading. If you track a hurricane & the nearby winds at buoys & on shore, it’s clear that the winds touted in the media are much higher. Perhaps 2 times higher, maybe more.
The hurricane hunters search for the highest winds aloft, report that, & estimate the winds below them.
Usually the winds are not the issue. It’s the storm surge.
Long-term FL resident Eric
If reporters, earlier known as journalists talk about hurricanes, they always tell us they “rage” to what ever coast line. They always confound the windspeed in the hurricane with the foreward motion of the hurricane. I never read otherwise 😀
I normally would agree with you, but…Dorian!. That SOB whacked my home island in the Abacos and just stayed there. No forward motion to add but 229 MPH winds and lots of spawned tornadoes.
It ripped the cables which tied my rather large catamaran out of the tarmac and flipped her right over. Totaled.
I was blase’ before the storm thinking, like you, that storm coverage was overblown (sorry for the pun), only to discover that by God, it was WORSE than predicted.
Part of the issue is that the hurricane center uses 1-minute average to determine max sustained wind whereas most land reporting stations use a 10-minute average. This is an important distinction because it’s easier for the wind to blow very strong for 1 minute rather than 10 minutes. That explains some of the discrepancy between hurricane hunter reports and that from observing stations.
Junk ‘science’.
Social justice for cyclone refugees! Think of the polar b… seals! Clear the Green Blight. Abort a wind turbine. It’s for the bats.
Dammit yeah, the climate crisis is so bad that even the cyclones are having to relocate.
……. and the twister comes. Here comes the twister
Same as it ever was
– Talking Heads (Remain in Light, 1980)
Sounds like he’s claiming the cyclones are the refugees!
Man’s CO2 has forced them to relocate.
(Well, plus volcanoes which he, for some reason, seems to lump in with what Man does.)
But he has a computer model!
Proof enough, right?
(Maybe not. Now if he only had a tree ring ….)
https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/07/how-climate-change-is-making-hurricanes-more-dangerous/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI-Z_58J2d6QIVyEXVCh25zQG-EAAYASAAEgIL7vD_BwE
“”decrease due to the “calming” effect of greenhouse gases.””
The climate predictors provide something for everybody.
Arguing with a leftard is like punching fog. They lose, then change the previously agreed terms. Bleepers!
““We hope this research provides information to help decision-makers understand the forces driving tropical cyclone patterns and make plans accordingly to protect lives and infrastructure,” Murakami said.”
It looks like we may we witnessing the exploitation of the most widespread scientific fraud in modern history, based on two fallacies. One is statistical, not properly presenting the error ranges, whatever they are, of predictive hypothetical models along with their assumptions, coincident with denigration of observations as not being scientific. The second is the movement of the science profession into thinking that it can make policy, confusing assessment with management. Although the problems have been well discussed here and elsewhere, the major scientific organizations are allowing, some pushing and damaging, if not losing, the credibility of the many scientific professions they claim to represent, not just of climate workers as above.
Ethics committees aren’t going to cut it.
Hope is the last to die
Hi HDH,
I second your words strongly. Geoff S
Judging from the utter wrongness of many early storm tracks, I’m not willing to give their models any credence.
“Greenhouse gases are warming the upper atmosphere and the ocean.”
“..The decline in particulate pollution due to pollution control measures may increase the warming of the ocean by allowing more sunlight to be absorbed by the ocean…”
I’m not a scientist and maybe I’m barking up the wrong tree here. But aren’t those two statements above contradictory? Does GHG’s warm the oceans or does sunlight?
This, coupled with NOAA’s lack of interest in surface temperature stations that do not meet their siting guidelines, leads me to believe that the level of corruption at NOAA over this climate alarmist narrative is something that increasingly requires attention.
That fact that the corruption may never get any attention should be an increasing source of frustration for honest scientists who care about science. It certainly is for me.
“… Greenhouse gases are warming the upper atmosphere …” well that depends where you think the upper atmosphere is…..higher CO2 at high altitude radiates more heat to outer space, which makes the upper atmosphere colder….
https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/7/697/2016/esd-7-697-2016.pdf
For the first time, high space-time precision models are able to predict that dextrogyre sharknados will be the new norm.
Murakami plays around with climate models which have shown no predictive skill, draws conclusions and then calls his work research. Really?
What an absolute piece of garbage of a “study” from GFDL. They used to be a premiere fluid dynamics / atmosphere / oceans laboratory, but they have been going steadily downhill for the past 3-plus decades. “Diminishing manmade aerosols is one of the reasons for the active tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic over the last 40 years,” says Murakami. That, on it’s face, is utter tripe. Have they never heard of cyclicity? Were man-made aerosols responsible for other periods where tropical cyclones diminished in this region? Well, no, because they weren’t IN the atmosphere. So, perhaps other factors were and are at work. They seem to be reaching for more and more esoteric, and third and fourth order, mechanisms to explain what they think they see, and what they wish to see.
I believe strongly that the main reason that our academic research labs and partner universities have deteriorated so markedly is because of the progressive group-think that infects academia at large. There is no room for debate, or counter-argument, or contrary thought. Hence, results such as this stunningly poor piece of “research” are produced.
“Climate goalpost migration: if you can’t prove more hurricanes…”
To claim the goalposts have moved, you need to establish where they originally were. In fact this article says that:
“Climate models project decreases in tropical cyclones toward the end of the 21st century from the annual average of 86 to about 69 worldwide”
I hadn’t seen such exact numbers quoted, but the AR5 in Table 11.2 gives the projections for TC activity global and various regions. For global it says:
“Reduced global, Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere frequency 2016–2035 relative to 1986–2005”
It then lists the varying prospects for the various regions, as here.
Who was trying to prove more hurricanes?
“Who was trying to prove more hurricanes?”
Nick, the mainstream media’s relentless regurgitation of alarmist drivel never seeks to PROVE anything, but they never stop CLAIMING tosh such as more hurricanes / tornadoes / cyclones / pandemics / whatever.
The mainstream media is the chief enemy of rational discussion about climate, and that’s probably why such scientific luminaries as Al Gore, David Suzuki, David Attenborough, Greta Thunberg, etc etc get such an open platform there.
The mainstream media also got the got the “1970 cooling” wrong. Science was 6:1 warming cooling. The paper quoted above is an example of the science trumping the MSM. The view offered is the as that offered by Kerry Emanuel for some time.
That being said, the number of folks who bring up the “70’s cooling myth” to this day is astounding.
The vast majority of actual scientists do not agree that CO2 is a problem either.
As you say, it’s a media sensation, nothing more.
But as we all know Mark, the count of “for / against” scientists matters not a jot to nature – the thing that counts is what is observed to actually happen.
“if it’s consensus, it’s not science” said a real scientist.
97% of them…it’s a fact 😉
Kerry Emmanuel is nothing but an alarmist. I prefer more sedate “experts” like Chris Landsea and Ryan Maue.
jack Dale: You are lying. I remember the 70’s very well, and absolutely no one was talking about Global Warming. Why were there “documentaries” at the time like this one?
This is the advantage to having climate alarmism prognosticators being all over the map with what they are telling us is going to happen.
Whenever something bad happens, somebody predicted it so climate science is “proven”.
Whenever nothing bad happens, not everyone was predicting it, so that means they are off the hook. At least in their minds.
“Who was trying to prove more hurricanes?”
Mostly politicians, like Obama, who repeatedly told us extreme weather was becoming more frequent and extremier, in spite of all the data to the contrary.
> “the global average number of tropical cyclones each year has not budged from 86 over the last four decades”.
I would assert that we are “finding” more hurricanes than ever before. 40 years ago there weren’t many satellites and far fewer aircraft. Back then with fewer flights into storms the chances of catching a large tropical storm briefly nudge up to hurricane status was less. With more direct readings and extensive Doppler measurements the chance of an upgrade is higher.
“Greenhouse gases are warming the upper atmosphere…”
No. All measurements of temperature in the upper atmosphere, satellite (both UAH and RSS) and balloon, show that it is cooling steadily for at least 40 years. For those interested in the data, see climate4you.com. Perhaps it is Murakami’s models that show increasing temperatures.
“Upper atmosphere” downward trend is clearly shown.
Short link to C4U graph of UAH 17 kilometer temperatures since 1978
http://tiny.cc/644hoz
Cold water is already below the sea surface in the equatorial Pacific.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/oceanography/wrap_ocean_analysis.pl?id=IDYOC007&year=2020&month=05
Deep water is very cold in every ocean, since it originates in The Arctic and Antarctic.
Cyclonic hurricane activity and location may vary for a number of factors, but in the big picture scheme of things the same primary process will take place, which is shedding heat from the tropics to the poles. Alterations in climate patterns may vary for multiple reasons which is to be expected, but the fundamental process of moving heat away from hot to colder to space is a permanent feature of our climate process.
As of 2015, LiveScience reported: https://www.livescience.com/50704-hurricane-drought.html
“In a stroke of luck, no major hurricanes rated Category 3 or higher have struck U.S. soil during the past nine years, a new study finds. This is the country’s longest “hurricane drought” in recorded history, or since 1851, the researchers said. The previous record lull lasted eight years, from 1861 to 1868, they said.
There is more damage now every time the wind blows, (or a hurricane happens) just because we have built up civilization more and there is more people, especially in coastal areas and flood plains. If we use insurance claims for damages as a proxy such as for hurricanes, of course that statistic will show more damage to infrastructure and buildings, just because more people and infrastructure are in the way and damages happen. Nothing much would change in this regard even if we completely abandoned fossil fuels and CO2 was back at 280 ppmv, so it is very disingenuous to tabulate storm damage, in this case hurricane activity, to a human threat of additional man made hurricane frequency, or that their movement will slightly alter due to cyclic climate patterns, which is to be expected. As the stats show, hurricane frequency hasn’t increased and neither has their strength. In fact in the USA, they were no major hurricanes making landfall between 2005 and 2017. They are barking up the wrong tree.
The narrative should change to resilience in planning and hardening our defences to natural weather events effects of all kinds. These have always been with us and always will be, no matter what we do. We don’t live in Pleasantville.
tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic are projected to decrease due to the “calming” effect of greenhouse gases.
I have, for over 15 years, been explaining that the physics requires that a warmer world be a calmer world. The historical record confirms this. But for the last 15 year the hysterical record has trumped all else, screaming that warming will increase hurricanes and cyclones.
Now that they’ve admitted that I was right all along, they don’t even bother to credit me. Ungrateful b*st*rds.
“Now that they’ve admitted that I was right all along, they don’t even bother to credit me. Ungrateful b*st*rds.”
The process of TS formation is not the same thing that drives mid-latitude storms, they
have always been expected to weaken as the meridional deltaT lessens under polar amplification of warming.
TSs are driven by extreme sensible/latent heat uptake/release over very warm ocean. A bottom-up convective process not a top-down baroclinic process.
Take special note of the language in the following passage from the study [key words are in bold]:
“very unlikely” … “likely” … “may”
… and the phrase, dynamical model experiments, raises a flag for me, because an “experiment” within a model is not an experiment in reality.
Computer models are used to design things.
I saw a show about that. The focus was bumpers for cars and trucks.
The computer model was used to design the bumper.
The “experiment” was to then actually build the bumper and see if it performed as the model predicted.
If it didn’t, back to the drawing … er … keyboard.
The closest thing a “climate” model can come to an “experiment” like that would be to look at past predictions vs what really happened. How right have they been?
To only “experiment” within the computer program without such a reality test?
Play a computer turn-based strategy game. Save it before you make your move. If you don’t like the results, reload the saved game and try again until you get the results that look good to you.
Reality not required.
“Model experiments” are simply exercises in determining if the model did what it was programmed to do, Not necessarily an indication of reality.