From the “summer colds are the worst” department
Guest essay by Vijay Jayaraj
A surprising late-June chill broke records for lowest temperatures and made life miserable for many across the world. From Denver, Colorado, in the United States, to Melbourne in Australia, the mercury dropped precipitously.
Many people in Colorado woke up to what would be the state’s coldest first day of summer in 90 years. Up to two feet of snow fell in some places, making authorities issue a winter weather advisory on the first day of summer. Denver especially has been at the center of focus. Record cold caught city dwellers off guard. This year has been the “city’s coldest start to a calendar year since 1983.”
The National Weather Service reported the coldest maximum temperature during the second half of June since 1992 at Chicago’s O’Hare Airport, and news outlets reported that it was unusual for the windy city to experience such low temperatures in the beginning of summer.
On the other side of the world, Australia saw many cities record their coldest first few weeks of winter. Melbourne, on June 23, recorded its lowest maximum for the date since 1985.
And back in the Northern Hemisphere, central England experienced similar historic lows in June, although the temperature was forecasted to pick up the following week due to a heatwave.
But the cooling observed is not just limited to the surface temperatures.
There has been a remarkable cooling in the global oceans, especially the Atlantic and the Pacific. This was totally unexpected, as scientists had forecast a strong warming in the oceans for this month, a weather condition called El Niño.
Experts are divided on what this cold phase actually points to. It might be just a one-off, localized, short-term weather phenomenon, or it might reflect a longer, global-scale climate shift.
Either way it contradicts alarmists’ claims of a warming world. If it were a mere weather phenomenon, then it would mean global warming would result in cold phases (like those in June, May, and earlier months this year), not warmer phases, as claimed by the alarmists. That means climate change will result in cold phases like the ones we’ve been observing in the past two years.
In contrast, if these cold phases are an indicator of a longer climatic shift, then there is no drastic warming but a global cooling.
We might be headed to what NASA describes as a period of “solar minimum,” with temperatures akin to the Little Ice Age that froze Northern Europe in the 16th century.
In its official June 12 communication, NASA stated, “The Sun’s activity rises and falls in an 11-year cycle. The forecast for the next solar cycle says it will be the weakest of the last 200 years. The maximum of this next cycle – measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level – could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one.”
Regardless of whether these cold phases are precursors to a longer cooling period or not, late-June cooling (like similar cooling periods in the past two years) certainly runs contrary to the claim that the world is getting hotter or warmer every year.
After the brief spike in temperatures during the El Niño-driven warmth of 2016, temperatures have fallen globally. This post-2016 two-year cooling resonates and coheres with the overall lull in the warming that scientists have observed during the past two decades, in which spikes in global temperature occurred only when El Niño was active.
It will be interesting to observe how the summer plays out and whether the solar inactivity predicted by NASA will make the 2019–20 winter colder than the ones before.
Vijay Jayaraj (M.Sc., Environmental Science, University of East Anglia, England), Research Associate for Developing Countries for the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation, lives in Bangalore, India.
Read the post again!
Ya but Melbourne is not supposed to have cold days.
Oh, but it does! We were never so cold as we were in Melbourne in a flimsy brick veneer house in the mid-eighties. Nor when we had frost on the roof in a house in one of the eastern suburbs of the city.
We get colder in winter and hotter in summer weather in the rural area we now live in but have a better insulated house that we built to replace the poorly insulated one originally here.
It is some time I have given up on global-warming morphed to climate-change (this last the stupidest/cleverest yet synonym , as of course climate changes, it is whether people can do anything about it).
The world is a global village, and the TV and internet are its agora, where people go and shout their beliefs.
On the European side of the word there is a heat wave up to Poland. In Greece we are having a temperate June, but the weather reports on TV are enamored with heat, and talk of the maxima in found in cities.
Have you heard of hubris? ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubris )
>Hubris (/ˈhjuːbrɪs/, from ancient Greek ὕβρις) describes a personality quality of extreme or foolish pride or dangerous overconfidence, often in combination with (or synonymous with) arrogance. In its ancient Greek context, it typically describes behavior that defies the norms of behavior or challenges the gods, and which in turn brings about the downfall, or nemesis, of the perpetrator of hubris. The adjectival form of the noun hubris is “hubristic”.
I think that is the state of the religion of global-warming/climate-change, and I hope that nemesis does not take over.
Look where we are heading
, and hope that Nemesis is not getting ready to strike.
anna v wrote: “as of course climate changes, it is whether people can do anything about it”—evidently you have not heard about one the warmists’ complementary hypotheses, “equilibrium theory.” It basically says that the global climate remains, more or less, at equilibrium except when it is disturbed by human activities. They have other “alternative” theories too, for example, that *reducing* (rather than increasing) the temperature difference between the equatorial and higher latitude regions will make the climate more volatile. This “theory” reverses both mainstream meteorology and the experiences of billions of people every winter, yet somehow it is the AGW skeptics and not the climate cultists who are the “science deniers.” Yet the more hoops they have to jump through to explain away reality, the more the mainstream media and establishment politicians repeat that “the world is getting warmer” and “the science is settled” and “97% of climate scientists agree, so shut up!” ad nauseam.
Speaking of hubris and ” stupidest/cleverest yet synonym”, here is the source:
“We have spent the last seven years examining how best to communicate
complicated ideas and controversial subjects. The terminology in the upcoming
environmental debate needs refinement, starting with “global warming” and ending
with “environmentalism.” It’s time for us to start talking about “climate change”
instead of global warming and “conservation” instead of preservation.
1. “Climate change” is less frightening than “global warming.” As one focus group
participant noted, climate change “sounds like you’re going from Pittsburgh to
Fort Lauderdale.” While global warming has catastrophic connotations attached
to it, climate change suggests a more controllable and less emotional challenge.”
http://aireform.com/resources/archive-2002-memorandum-to-bush-white-house-by-gop-consultant-frank-luntz-17p/
This is where we are headed; notice the uptick at the end.
Some additional detail from past 10,000 years.
http://www.realclimate.org/images/Marcott.png
Don’t even bother Nick, this is one for the true believers.
“We have been in a cooling period since 2002 according to Judith Curry and 2008 according to me. Either way, we have been cooling for at least 11 years. As we know from the last cooling period, it gets worse in the third decade.
“Ah, but this is why we have to say “climate change” now, and not “global warming”.
How can you argue with that?
Loydo: Its hard to argue with it and be rational. How the wordsmiths sold all you folk on it is the bigger mystery. How much can one take and still hold the course could be a good Vegas betting situation.
Look at the trends; look at the means. Weather ≠ climate.
IPCC says climate is the average of 30 years of weather.
IPCC say a lot of very wrong things, nothing unexpected there.
Weather ≠ climate
You’re always simple, but for once you’re right. Weather is real. Climate is not — it’s an abstraction.
As many others here have mentioned, we’ll soon experience at least 30-years of global cooling when the Pacific, Atlantic and Arctic oceans all enter their respective 30-year ocean cool cycles as occurred: 1880~1910, and 1945~1978.
Moreover, additional global cooling will occur because of the 50-year Grand Solar Minimum, which just started.
It’s also very interesting to observe that the strongest 63-year string of solar cycles in 11,400 years occurred during a Grand Solar Maximum (GSM) event from 1933~1996.
When the GSM ended in 1996, the global warming trend also suddenly stopped from June 1996 to June 2015 (aka the Hiatus), despite 30% of all manmade CO2 emissions since 1750 being emitted during the Hiatus, which suggests sunspot activity, ENSO, and 30-year ocean cycles are the primary drivers of climate, not weak-sauce CO2.
The Hiatus was interrupted when the 2015/16 Super El Niño event occurred, but next year’s La Niña cycle will be a strong one, and will negate most of the lingering affects of the 2015/16 Super El Niño warming spike.
It seems highly likely that by 2026, a 30-year cooling/flat trend will reappear (starting from 1996), and will continue off and on for at least 30+ years as the cooling effects of 30-year ocean cool cycles, and a 50-year Grand Solar Minimum continue.
Europe is small, so a big HIGH, cantered over North Africa can easily
cause warm air to cover most of the Western part of Europe.
Here in Australia we get the same effect, Australia is about the same size
as all of Europe, and has a large desert area. So during the summer we can
get a North wind and the hot air from the desert will come down to the South
of the continent.
In the summer its unpleasant, in the winter of course its very nice.
Its all called weather, climate is a 30 year average.
MJE VK5ELL
“Surprising Summer Chill Baffles Global Warming Alarmists”
err. no it doesnt
Of course it doesn’t.
They don’t know anything about late springs and crop failures and snows in June and cooling oceans.
Their shepherds and guardians see to that, maintaining the eternal sunshine of their spotless minds.
Sorry do you need a bit of English education?
“Baffle (verb): 1540s, “to disgrace,” of uncertain origin. Perhaps a Scottish respelling of bauchle “to disgrace publicly” (especially a perjured knight), which is probably related to French bafouer “to abuse, hoodwink” (16c.), possibly from baf, a natural sound of disgust, like bah (compare German baff machen “to flabbergast”). The original sense is obsolete. Meaning “defeat someone’s efforts, frustrate by interposing obstacles or difficulties” is from 1670s. Related: Baffled; baffling.”
So who was baffled? No incidents quoted.
You clearly don’t get the humour of a physicist from Scotland explaining English to an English major from America.
Alarmists. You’ve never said you were one Nick, but if you are I’ve a serious question I’ve been asking that is never answered. Are you as worried today about global warming as you were in the previous decade or two?
Yeah but they took the baffle out after the advent of the “Dreaded Pause” precisely because global warming stopped being a descriptor for mainly what was actually happening.
BTW this is the first time you’ve identified unequivocally with alarmists. I’ve been wondering something. Are you guys as alarmed today as you were a decade or two ago?
Mosher your not a Climate Scientists so what evidence do you want to present?
We seem to be missing the story ‘surprising early summer extreme heat doesn’t surprise western Europe’ ??
with temps not only breaking June, but all time summer records?
I’m sure France will melt away and raise the sea level by up to 20 feet. /s
We”re having the corresponding N to S wind, about 20C (‘about 20C or 68F colder’ /s) than there. I’m not baffled but will tell you it makes feet cold.
Fried Frenches are quite popular. 😉
No Surprise at all, Griff, happened many times before, but media is obsessed by extremes, which appear to be regular as clock work, which btw. makes them non-extremes.
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/CET-June.htm
BBC just quoted UK’s ‘extreme’ recorded at Charlwood, Surrey, a small village which is bordering Gatwick airport where aircraft are landing or taking off every 30 sec
https://www.flightradar24.com/51.15,-0.2/14
I doubt that this village has a proper weather station, and reading is most likely from the airport’s station, but the BBC editors prefer not to quote the airport as the source for ‘scientific’ reasons.
BBC, UK latest:
top temperature 34C (no records broken) at Heathrow (that is one of the busiest international airports), I think that the S-box is adjacent to the northern runway, but not sure.
Yes it is on the grass North of the northern runway at an ‘express exit’ where many aircraft will be in reverse thrust with efflux in the 300C – 600C range. As people walking the perimeter road will know there is often a ‘warm draft’ from these aircraft.
Here in Australia we will do our bit and export extra coal for them and someone in Asia/India will burn it for them to help out.
Just putting it out there lots of hot air at Democrat debates and France with unusually hot weather. That is classic climate science correlation right there.
About four volcanoes have been ejecting to the tropopause over the last fortnight to varying degrees. Popocatapetl, two Indonesian ones, one in the Kuriles, and one north of New Guinea. Any thoughts on what could be happening and likely effects. I mean, Pinatubo was one, but five? Brett Keane
It should have no relevance whatsoever because surely ONLY CO2 can affect global temps……?
Surely?
My mistake, six over 30,000ft! Mostly well over and equatorial. BrettKeane
You cant win with these guys. Everything is due to mans C02. Warming, cooling, droughts, floods, storms, crop failure, dying coral reef, dead sea turtles, etc, etc, etc
Planets greener, crop yields are high, plenty of food. Sure, weather happens, climate changes, with or without man, but they will never admit this and the foundations and government pump billions into the lie so they cant be stopped
“Baffles Global Warming Alarmists”
Nah, it’s ALL consistent with………
At the same time that Europe experiences a heat wave, Arctic ice strengthens to normal levels:
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
That chart shows Arctic sea ice as 1.3 million square kilometers below the 1981 – 2010 median value for the 28th June. It’s currently the 3rd lowest for that date – about equal to 2012 which went on to have the lowest minimum on record.
Why 1981 to 2010? Why not the full length of all recorded measurements?
The NRCS Snotel sites (annual precipitation for irrigation purposes in the western us) also use that range for the average when they have data up to and including this year.
Why would you stop updating your data to the most complete information available?
It is called CHERRY PICKING. 30 years is a magical MINIMUM for climate change, not the end-all be-all unless it suites someone’s needs.
And when speaking of climate, why would 30 years be long enough when known ocean cycles are far longer than that. Why not 100 years? 500 years? Oh, because we only have 30 years of VALID data? But if the documented adjustments for old temperature data in the US had not been done and if the US had run the old and new sites simultaneously for 5 years or so when the sites were relocated of methods changed, we would have, at least in the US, over 100 years of valid data.
Thanks Anthony, for showing the faulty nature of so many of the current sites, and in many cases the step wise changes in temperatures when the changes in locations and/or methods occurred. And again, it seems, always to higher temperatures.
I mentioned the 1981 – 2010 median value because that’s what’s used on the chart Phil Salmon was using to claim Arctic sea ice was at normal levels. 1981 – 2010 is most of the recorded measurements for that chart which starts in 1979. You can use any average you like – it won’t show sea ice at normal levels.
Drake asked, “And when speaking of climate, why would 30 years be long enough”—It is not long enough. 30 years is used because it is a sort of bare minimum number to get real statistical significance when analyzing data that plot a Gaussian distribution. Problem is, weather data are not “normally” distributed. That problem is inconvenient, so they just ignore it. They ignore lots of inconvenient truths. The political agenda came first (transfer power from accountable national institutions to unaccountable international institutions), then the theory that would justify the agenda came second, and all data must either fit the theory or be ignored. Not conspiracy theory, just the history of the movement. The left has been discussing this option at least since socialist economist Robert Heilbroner wrote _The Human Prospect_ in 1950, and unabashed one-world-government proponent Maurice Strong finally seized the initiative to turn the dream into an active, UN-sponsored project in 1990, although some of the groundwork for the project was laid by activists working since at least 1976.
Funny Maurice Strong name does not appear.
http://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/11/01/ipcc_beginnings/
50 years ago when we got cold or hot we called it “weather”, but today’s kids are so sophisticated and scientifically “literate” that they call the same thing “climate change”.
No June anthropogenic warming here
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/CET-June.htm
Thanks for this paper ! Here, in France medias, green activists and government are completely mad due to this heat wave. They see THE evidence of global warming ! In south of France I had 44°C in my garden during… 1hour and half… Nights are fresh and it’s a beautiful sunny summer to get a pastis or a good cold beer watching girls at the pavement of a “bistrot” !
PS : Americans were better than Frenchs yesterday in fourth final of world feminine soccer… Snif !
French Geog: not only are we not supposed to watch the girls, there aren’t any girls now to watch, apparently, on the western side of the Atlantic. We are rationed to watch a dozen other genders equally. I miss France!
“Surprising Summer Chill Baffles Global Warming Alarmists” Perhaps a better word than “baffles” would be “worries”. It threatens the Warmunist ideology and careers of the bandwagoners.
What’s the problem?
1st day of Summer 6/21/2019: overnight temp was 52F; 50F at 6AM; 66F and sunny at noon; 59F by 9PM. I had the furnace running all day. Cats were chilled, went under the fleece blankets on the bed. The real benefit is that I don’t have to run the air conditioner at all. Nice breeze through the windows.
What’s the problem, again? It’s good sleeping weather and a drop in the bucket of summer’s weather, that’s all. It’s just weather. We’ve had chillier than that in June. And it keeps the sweet corn sweet, and the watermelon mellow.
Let the idjits go into panic attacks about it and spout denials about it. They have a mental issue. The rest of us don’t.
What’s the real problem, aside from the poor grasp on reality of the Greenbeaners and Warmunistas?
In the sunny south-east of England it is quite warm and at 1300 BST my patio thermometer which is in a corner on a wall and currently well out of the sun until later in the day it is 84F. There is a bit of an easterly breeze but that doesn’t affect the thermometer. All 3 models on Ventusky have the temperature falling way back down tomorrow so this is not a heatwave but just one warm sunny day. The last couple of days have been sunny but with a very strong easterly wind which has made the evenings very cool, especially in the country where I live. In fact driving home from the southern outskirts of Greater London last night, I had a bit of heat on in my van.
In coastal Devon we have had pleasant temperatures the last week up to about 74F but the wind has been a noticeable and cooling feature.
Actually the whole of Western Europe is currently in a searing heatwave, courtesy of air coming straight up from the Sahara. All time record highs have been recorded in Spain and France.
This should not blind the other European feature of 2019, namely the highest snowpack at the end of May for nearly 50 years. That is clearly melting very rapidly as we speak and end of June figures will not be close to a record.
So the biggest feature is high divergence from mean weather, in both directions.
This is the first article that touches on my point for which I haven’t been able to get much traction even from sceptics, and even though my prediction that NOAA’s forecast of an El Nino (however modest) was not going to develop because of the lack of warm water volume in the ITCZ!
Moreover, I identified a new mechanism at work and have been hitting this since before the 2015/16 El Nino happened, and that is the switch from “persistent hot blobs” in the temperate zones to “persistent cold blobs” and the slanting equatorward of cold water from these blobs to cool the Enso “boxes” instead of the usual simple upwelling of cold water in the eastern Pacific. This is what caused the record 0.5C plunge from the peak of the El Nino which I described in a few posts here. NOAA’s forecast of the “coming El Nino (and even Bob Tisdale’s) seemed uninformed of these glaring changes.
Now, having said this, I think Vijay’s article is a bit unfocused and hops and jumps to cool spots somewhat in the way our torrid world proponents do with hot spots. But, he is onto something important climatologically although he is only expressing wonder in the article. The persistent cold water distribution is a noteworthy phenomenon.
Let me predict the agencies got the active Huricane season dead wrong, the ENSO is going cold and the persistent cold blobs will be additive to an ENSO global cooling. I can’t see how it could be avoided.
Like most stories about the climate, it’s complicated. Here in South Central Alaska we are having a heat wave like they haven’t seen since the 8o’s! Combined with the smoke from the coastal forest fires that has drifted into the region, the press here and much of the population are seeing this as proof of global warming! The truth is, while progress is being made, we still don’t really have a good handle on how the sun’s energy is distributed around the globe, let alone enough information to model it accurately! We are far from “Settled Science”!
Fergie
Fergie, fair enough, it ain’t simple and it ain’t settled. The hot weather you are experiencing in southcentral AK is likely inpart “return” air from the south, from a ‘polar vortex’ over the rest of the continent that never really quit from last winter. Blizzards in the Rockies in late June (Denver, etc) and temperatures in the 60s and 70sFs in Texas and California are part of this.
My thoughts are that Enso is cooling because of all the cold water heading equatorward, and given a multimonth lag in its effect on global avg temperatures, we have much of this cooling to look forward to. If the “cold blobs” stick around, too, they will add to it. Anyway my predictions are out there for the better known effects of this cold water.
I’m not sure what you mean by “historic lows”. The first two weeks of June were on the cool side, but hardly historically low. The linked article quotes a provisional CET to the 14th of 12.6C. Assuming the adjusted figure will be a bit lower than this, it still makes the start of June about the same as 2015, and warmer than 2012 and 2001. Equal third coolest this century is hardly historically low.
Up until that date you mention CET was said to be the 16th coolest in the 350 year CET record. That makes it historically interesting, but the forecast was for it to warm up considerably from the middle of the month which indeed it has. So I doubt if June will turn out to be anything but pretty warm
tonyb
Yes, that’s what the alarmist article linked in the head post says. But that’s comparing the first 2 weeks of June this year with the average for the entire month of previous years.
Using the daily CET and comparing with just the first 14 days of each June shows this year to be around 40th coolest since 1772. The exact position will depend on the official daily figures.
Even if the final June figure had been 12.6°C, it would still have hardly been historically low. 1991 was only 12.1°C, so at best this would have been the coldest in almost 30 years. As it happens it’s looking like June will be over 14°C, making it warmer than 2011, 2012, 2013 and probably 2015.
Tonyb,
I think your last sentence is wrong though. June 2019 is not going to be pretty warm, it’s going to be a bit below average, but not an “historic low”.
Even if it was one of the coldest Junes on record it would not prove an ice age was immenent. You can find several places where an exceptionally cold June is followed the next year by an exceptionally hot one, and visa-versa. English weather is very fickle.
The official June figure is 14.2°C, making it the equal 162nd coldest June since 1659. This is the coldest June since 2015.
June 4, 2019 had 38F (3.3C) here in west MD & damaging frost on low-lying ground in central PA. Coldest June temp I can remember except perhaps early June 1979.
April 26, 2019, I had three inches of snow in my yard and on my roof. I have photos. The apple tree next door finally gave up on having apples and dropped its blossoms.
WHAT GLOBULL WARMING??? WHERE IS IT????
Apparently in France according to Griff and Loydo.
“Across the world” is more than USA. All time highs in France yesterday!
“Across the world” is more than France.
This is nothing folks. IT IS GOING TO GET MUCH COLDER. Predictions are that the coming solar cycle will be the most quiet one of the past 300 years, since the little ice age.
And make no mistake about it; temperature correlates very well with solar irradiation, and has almost no correlation with carbon dioxide.
To make matters worse, the true believers among the climate alarmists are now pumping smog, sulfur dioxide, into the stratosphere to diminish the amount of sunlight reaching beneath it. So they are making it colder by artificial means. Idiots.
Weather and climate news that has somehow missed the mainstream media news:
Arctic ice shows signs of incipient recovery according to DMI:
https://notrickszone.com/2019/06/28/arctic-sea-ice-surprise-global-warming-experts-by-remaining-stable-this-decade/
Austrian Hohe Tauern glaciers growing after very snowy winter:
https://notrickszone.com/2019/06/26/austrian-weather-agency-glaciers-have-recovered-due-to-a-snowy-winter-record-june-snow-depth/
https://www.iceagenow.info/unexpected-summer-snow-hits-mongolia/
https://www.iceagenow.info/intense-cold-and-snow-in-argentina-homeland-of-the-pope/
https://www.iceagenow.info/colorado-snowpack-more-than-40-times-normal/
https://www.iceagenow.info/biting-cold-challenges-kenyan-farmers/