Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
[SEE UPDATE AT THE END]
Due to the recent posts by Lord Monkton and Nick Stokes, I’ve been thinking about the relationship between radiation and temperature. So I turned to the CERES dataset. Here is a scatterplot of the monthly global average surface temperature versus the monthly global average downwelling total radiation absorbed by the surface. The total radiation is the sum of the net solar radiation at the surface and the downwelling longwave radiation at the surface. I’ve removed the seasonal variations from the data.
Note that 3.7 W/m2 is the increase in downwelling longwave radiation expected from a doubling of CO2 …
When I saw that, I thought well, maybe the increase is small because there’s a lag between the absorption of the radiation and the warming. To see if that was the case, I did a cross-correlation analysis of the relationship.
No lag visible.
Now, I get busted regularly for drawing what I’m told are the wrong conclusions from the data that I present. So I’m just gonna say …
Me, I’m writing this from banks of the Kenai River in Alaska, one of my favorite spots in the world. When I got off the airplane, the aroma of the air was absolutely intoxicating. Summertime is short here but the days are long, and the air is full of the heady perfume of every plant and every animal growing and going at triple speed, making the most of the brief Alaska summer. Here’s what the sun is doing today this far north …
[UPDATE] Someone asked what temperature I’m using. I used the conversion of the upwelling longwave radiation from the surface. However, the answer is only slightly different if I use, for example, the HadCRUT surface temperature. Here is that result:
As you can see, there is no significant difference when I use the other surface temperature dataset.
My very best regards to all, may your days be as full of sunshine as mine,
PS—My usual request: when you comment, please quote the exact words you are responding to, so we can all be clear about who and what you are talking about.
PPS—Bonus question. What latitude on the planet gets the most hours of sunlight per year?