From the David Viner School of preposterous predictions, comes this “children just won’t know what winter is” moment. This is climate science done by art designers, no less.
Academics from the School of Art & Design have teamed up with colleagues from the ANU Climate Change Institute on a design project, which takes existing data and communicates the impacts of climate change in a way that people can engage with and better understand.
The resulting new climate tool visualises data which shows by 2050, Australians will no longer enjoy winter as they know it today and will experience a new season the designers are calling “New Summer”.
New Summer represents a period of the year where temperatures will consistently peak in many cases well above 40ºC for a sustained period.
Using the tool, people can click on thousands of locations across Australia to see how the local weather in their home town will change by 2050.
“We looked at the historical average temperatures of each season and compared them to the projected data and what we find everywhere is that there’s really no period of a sustained or lasting winter,” said Dr Geoff Hinchliffe, Senior Lecturer (SOA&D).
“In 30 years’ time winter as we know it will be non-existent. It ceases to be everywhere apart from a few places in Tasmania,” he said.
The tool – which uses data from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and Scientific Information for Land Owners (SILO)* – shows how many degrees the average temperature will rise by in each location and how many more days over 30 or 40 degrees a place will have in 2050 compared with today.
“As well as the data, we also focused on developing the most effective visual forms for conveying how climate change is going to affect specific locations,” said Dr Hinchliffe.
“That meant using colour, shape and size around a dial composition showing a whole year’s worth of temperature values in a single snapshot.
“It makes it visually rich and interesting and gives a lot of detail in a way that connects emotionally with people by locating it in their own town,” he said.
“We concentrate on visualisation and storytelling. We don’t want to misrepresent the data or suggest things that aren’t true so the visualisation was instrumental in conveying the data in a way that can be interrogated. “
“It’s like a graph, but more poetic,” said Associate Professor Mitchell Whitelaw.
“The research and innovation here is in the visualisation and compilation of all this data. Our innovation is in the way this existing data is communicated and presented – hopefully in a memorable, engaging way,” he said.
The visual climate tool was prepared for the Australian Conservation Foundation and can be viewed here: https://myclimate.acf.org.a
About the data:
Data extracted from Queensland Government LongPaddock project, which uses the SILO database (http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo) and is operated by the Science Division of the Queensland Department of Environment and Science (DES) with support from the Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries (DAF).
The climate ‘change factors’ used to calculate consistent climate scenarios data have been estimated using: Coupled Model Intercomparison Research Program 3 (CMIP3) patterns of change data (projected changes per degree of 21st Century global warming) supplied by the CSIRO and the UK Met Office/Hadley Centre; and data from AR4 SRES scenario temperature response curves (projected amounts of global warming) supplied by the CSIRO.
These data sources are available in the following locations:
- The CMIP3 global model database: http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/about_ipcc.php
- OzClim: http://www.csiro.au/ozclim
- UK Met Office/Hadley Centre: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-change/resources/hadley
Data modelling:
- Perturbation method: Linear Mixed Effect State Space (LMESS) – Q5
- Global warming sensitivity: High
- IPCC assessment report: AR5
- Emission scenario: RCP8.5
Climate model: ACCESS 1.3
So who do you trust more for climate predictions? Art designers who think their work is “more poetic”, or run-of-the-mill climate scientists who produce non-poetic data? Is adjusted data more poetic than raw data? Does raw data look more blue than red?
Of course none of these people will be around to verify their work in 2050, or to take the rap for making people scared if it doesn’t happen. -Anthony
h/t to WUWT reader Bert Krawchuk
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I’m sure this will turn out as well as California legislating their state into a perpetual drought!! (Has anybody checked out the Snotel Narrative for the Sierras lately?)
https://www.sfgate.com/weather/article/lake-Death-Valley-National-Park-flooding-water-CA-13679346.php
“The tool – which uses data from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)…”
(plus emphasis)
Well there’s your problem right there!
I sometimes find myself in two minds about the current climate delusion:
Should I be pleased that we are now so wealthy that we can afford such waste of resources, human time & labour, and such utterly useless “education”?
Or is it a sign that out current civilization has nearly forgotten the essential principles required for it’s continuation?
Correction.
“children just won’t know what winter is” should be “children just won’t know what anything is”
Correction of your correction is ….“children just won’t know what anything REAL is”
“We don’t want to misrepresent the data or suggest things that aren’t true”
I just ask if modelling of future weather/climate can be concidered true?
Have they not heard of David Viners prediction. Do they ever learn from history.
““It makes it visually rich and interesting and gives a lot of detail in a way that connects emotionally with people by locating it in their own town,” he said.”
It is also unbelievable. Given that there will so much “polar amplification” why would anyone believe that somewhere sub-tropical would warm by more than 0.3 or 0.5 degrees if the global temp rises another 0.5?
I think they should introduce a new math curriculum in Oz just as the Ontario government announced yesterday. The current one, based on unicorns and rainbows, is not working. They can no longer add, it seems.
Looks like they are taking the worst case projections, doubling them, and proclaiming this is the minimum that will happen.
So does this mean upcoming opportunities for coastal condominium projects in Antarctica?
It doesn’t matter what happens in 2050, as the world is supposed to end in 12 years. These forecasters should make their minds up. 😉
The fact that CO2 is a ghg has caused much resistance to the observation that CO2 has little if any effect on climate. It is crucial that the message be made more public that the past warming was contributed to by the rising water vapor which is self-limiting and not CO2. The other contributing factors, solar (SSN are at zero) and ocean cycles are in downtrend.
The worst of climate clowns !
Art designers using data from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) who are famous for heating the present by cooling the past.
It’s as funny as fit! We have a country house in a place called Glen Innes NSW. We routinely get winter lows of -10C.
These rope-a-dopes are predicting no winter for us!
The stupid – it burns
Already in Darwin there is no winter. There is a dry season and a wet season. With a growth rate of 2.6 percent per year, Darwin is considered one of the quickest growing regions within Australia. People cannot get enough of this Global Warming Benefit.
“The tool – which uses data from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)” No doubt that is the BOM’s wonderful fantastic made up fake dopey ACORN 2 “NOT DATA’.
Garbage in =Garbage out.
But it seems that artists don’t appreciate this.
Neither does the ABC here in Oz.
It is sometimes forgotten by the rest of the World just how big Australia really is.
Its almost as big as the mainland of the USA , and its possible to have snow on the hill of Hobart, capital of the Island State of Tasmania, and to have very hot conditions in the North of the country, such as the cities of Darwin and Cains, both being almost on the Equator.
This nonsense is known as Artistic license.
MJE
Canberra?
If you ever want an example of the detachment from reality the Warmist suffers from this is a good one. They have made their press release about Canberra. Canberra, the city nearly universally agreed that is best viewed via the rearview mirror of a speeding vehicle. They say “Look at future Canberra!” and the rest of Australia sneers back that they don’t even want to look at CURRENT Canberra!
Not that I criticising the actual project of course. I don’t have a degree in Art Design so clearly would not be qualified to speak on those matters.
I looked at my area, Mount Barker in the Adelaide Hills and compared it to the ‘official’ records at the BOM (subject to change with each iteration of the ACORN adjustments).
The ‘New Summer’ site claims we will see an increase of 2.7C by 2050 from the current 1960-1990 average of 19.7C.
The BOM site has mean max records (may not be the same as their average daily maximum) going back to 1871 for Mount Barker. Not all of them are for 30 year periods but I had to take what they offered:
1871-1887 20.4
1926-1940 19.6
1926-1950 19.4
1931-1960 19.3
1941-1970 19.3
1951-1980 19.6
1961-1990 19.9
1971-2000 20.1
1981-2010 20.5 (WOW! We are back to the 1881-1887 mean)
and Wiki describes Mount Barker thus:
Around 10 years ago the state government re-zoned 1,300 hectares (3,200 acres) from farming to residential and there are around a dozen or so new housing developments in progress. The 10,000 population is projected to go to 35,000 and this is well underway.
UHI much?
The means from 1871 to 1970 show a cooling trend even though CO2 was increasing. Would we be looking for more CO2 had they run this exercise back then?
John I am in Mt Barker as well. The Bureau of Misinformation maintains the actual raw data as well since 1963.
It would be worthwhile seeing if yu can get your comment published in the local Courier. I have tried & failed.
Bill
My local rag, the Sydney Morning Herald, seems to allow only pro-alarmist posts. Try getting a factual post like the one by John above, won’t pass the gatekeepers.
Have they published their lawyers’s number? I might need to talk a few things over with them when my projected sugar cane crop in the Derwent Valley fails in 2051
The rainbow/unicorn set is at it again. These people get paid to play kids games on the computer and what’s more they can vote in like minded people into power! I think what we are seeing here is a society (the west basically) which is over mature and does not have enough real problems to keep them occupied. Doesn’t history tell us that such societies inevitably go loopy with an anything goes attitude as they inevitably fall? We are becoming the Eloi…from ”The Time Machine” with the Morlocks waiting in the wings.
I predict that in thirty years it will snow in Colorado and they will grow fruit in Florida. In other words, it will be just like it is now.
I this this curious. The prediction is for no Winters by 2050.
But this morning, on the 14th f March, in this droughty climate, the minimum outside my backdoor was just 7 degrees C. And yesterday it was 6 degrees. Bloody cold for March !
It feels to me that we are sliding into a long dry cold frosty Winter.
Why do I say this ?
Well when its droughty there is far less cloud cover at night. And the surface of the earth rapidly cools making the surface more frost prone.
By contrast in wet years there is more cloud cover in Winter and the minimum temperatures at night are higher and we get far fewer frosts..
I suspect our artistic friends in need of a busk or two from publicity, are completely unaware of these basic facts.
in Vic wimmera last few nights down to the 6 or slightly higer also
less hardy locals are already lighting fires;-)
another warmer spell is expected with nights up to 15 or so and days around 30
rain would be rather nice about now but not looking hopeful;-(
what ALL the above inc the idiot ABC one i posted waaaay up higher is?
ELECTIONS!!!!!! are coming soon and the warmist clusterfks are out in full force
GETUP are running campaigns to Influence voters yet they? dont get mentioned as iinterfering with politics/elections in spits of very biased goal to do just that
along with greenpeas and avaaz
ALL using foriegn money as well
tsk tsk
Are they still going to get spring and autumn🙃?
There is a city in Russia that only has two seasons: winter, and 15th of July.
“It makes it visually rich and interesting and gives a lot of detail in a way that connects emotionally with people by locating it in their own town,” he said.”
“Visions” can have that effect on people. Reality and fact less so.
Summertime, what’s not to like?