Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
[UPDATE] I’ve discovered an error in the calculations that invalidates most of this post, with the exception of the snow extent data. See the explanation here.]
As I mentioned in a recent post, the CERES satellite folks have released another year’s worth of data. Since this should have gotten us past the temperature bump related to the 2016-2017 El Nino, I thought I’d take a look at the temperature and the temperature trends. First, the temperature: Figure 1. Global average surface temperature, CERES satellite data. Interesting … the trend is quite small, and is not statistically different from zero. Looking at that, I thought I should look to see which parts of the planet have warmed and cooled over that 18-year period. Figure 2 shows that result: Figure 2. Map showing temperature trends on a 1° latitude by 1° longitude grid, Pacific centered. Areas in green and blue are cooling, and yellow to red are warming. I love science for the surprises. Here’s the first surprise in this result—on average, the oceans are warming, but the land is cooling. In particular, the entirety of North America has been cooling over the 18 years. Here’s the view from the other side of the planet: Figure 3. Map showing temperature trends on a 1° latitude by 1° longitude grid, Atlantic centered. Areas in green and blue are cooling, and yellow to red are warming. And the second surprise is that the southern hemisphere is warming … but the northern hemisphere, with a trend of 0.00°C/decade, is neither warming nor cooling. Now, we all live on the land. And almost 90% of us live in the Northern Hemisphere. For the last two decades, we’ve been subjected to endless harangues from climate alarmists telling us that the signs of runaway global warming are ALREADY HERE! BE VERY AFRAID! But for everyone living in North America, in Europe, and in Asia, that’s simply not true. For the last eighteen years, the land has been cooling … Finally, I’ve never seen a climate model from the turn of the century that predicted that for the first 18 years of the 21st Century the land would be cooling … and despite that, we’re supposed to believe that those same climate models can tell us what the temperatures will be doing in the year 2100 … yeah, that’s totally legit … And there you have the results of my latest peregrination through the CERES data.
[UPDATE] More information on the time period in question.
Here on the North Coast of California, we’ve had two days of rain, then yesterday a day of sun. After the recent fires we’ve been cleaning up the forest floor, so yesterday we burned a couple of the big piles of limbs and brush that we’ve gathered over the last couple of months. Today … rain again, indoor work.
Best of both rain and sun to everyone,
PS—When you comment, please quote the exact words that you are referring to, so we can all be clear on just who and what you are discussing.