Hog Wild! Climate change to make pigs skinnier (busted)

From the National Post and the “climate change, is there anything it can’t do?” department comes this porkie:

Climate change is making pigs skinnier, which could mean more expensive pork

A new report claims higher temperatures mean hogs produce less protein, which could result in pricier pork

Pork is the most widely consumed animal protein in the world. Representing more than 36 per cent of global meat-eating, a hit to production could have devastating effects. As a new Scientific American report suggests, a warming planet may result in skinnier pigs that produce less meat. The potential outcome: a future where pork is scarce and strips of bacon will cost you dearly.

The National Pork Board in the U.S. has been monitoring the effect of high temperatures on pigs since 2013, according to Scientific American, due to the possible consequences for a US$20 billion industry.

Swine are particularly vulnerable to hot weather: they wallow in cool mud or water because their sweat glands don’t effectively regulate body temperature. Studies have shown that when the animals are exposed to temperatures in excess of 25 degrees Celsius, they produce less protein, with the added drawback of decreased fertility.

“And the impact is not limited to one generation — if a pregnant sow suffers heat stress, she will birth fewer babies, which will grow slower, store less protein and have fewer and lower-quality eggs and sperm compared with pigs born to mothers raised at cooler temperatures,” Scientific American reports.

Previous studies have identified climate change as a threat to livestock in general as rising temperatures affect feed quality, availability of water and biodiversity. By 2050, worldwide demand for livestock products is anticipated to double, according to a 2017 study by Michigan State University.

Caught in a vicious meaty circle, climate change will influence livestock production and thus food security. And the fallout of animal farming – deforestation and feed production – in turn contributes to greenhouse gas emissions.

“Agricultural scientists say pork could get more expensive in a warmer and more humid world because raising pigs will require more food, energy, water and labour to meet the protein requirements of a growing human population,” Scientific American reports, adding that cooling technologies and a return to indigenous breeds may help mitigate the threat to the industry.

Source: https://nationalpost.com/life/food/climate-change-is-making-pigs-skinnier-which-could-mean-more-expensive-pork


Meanwhile, in the real world, as the Earth warms over the last 50 years…. we see this:

Source: Our World in Data

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Geoff Sherrington
September 26, 2018 4:42 pm

Pigs and mathematics go back years.
About 1970 there was a research paper claiming that the optimum economic feed weight for raising pigs was proporktional to A to the power of 0.8, where A is the weight of food chosen by pigs from an unlimited supply.
Looking at a cross section of late teenage girls of today, I hope they are still learning mathematics so they can figure this. You reap what, you sows? Geoff

lgp
September 26, 2018 6:01 pm

Pork, thanks to Global Warming, soon the other lean meat!

September 26, 2018 6:05 pm

I get the idea these researchers don’t have any clue about pigs.

They chose a global animal used for food and bollixed up their “less protein” fakery.

From: “BIOLOGICAL POTENTIAL OF FECUNDITY OF SOWS

” At present, the (really) assumed potential of fecundity is 15.0 piglets born alive, 2.4 litters/year, <10 % losses and 32.5 piglets per sow/year (compared to current data of 11.1, 2.26, 13.8 and 21.5, respectively)"

A problem with pigs is keeping that fecundity under control. A lot of semi-tropical areas have serious feral pig problems.

Well, at least the sow fecundity study was worth the funds spent, unlike the climate alarm fear mongering.

michael hart
September 26, 2018 6:17 pm

Climate change has already made the pig’s trough bigger. It is now swamp-sized.

simple-touriste
September 26, 2018 6:21 pm

Does that mean that pigs can go into modelling?

Would that be healthy for their self image?

Pop Piasa
Reply to  simple-touriste
September 26, 2018 6:34 pm

Already been done-

comment image

GregK
September 27, 2018 2:19 am

Ukranians will be devastated in a world of skinny pigs..

https://www.odditycentral.com/pics/worlds-first-pig-fat-museum-opens-in-ukraine.html

However I don’t think they need worry.
Outback Oz gets a lot hotter than 25 degrees and porkers seem to do quite nicely there.
https://movieweb.com/boar-movie-trailer-2018/

GregK
Reply to  GregK
September 27, 2018 2:21 am

Whoops.
That’s Ukrainians

Gary
September 27, 2018 4:51 am

Will pigs replace Stevenson Screens? Do they have to be whitewashed regularly? And weighed twice a day to get an average?

ddpalmer
September 27, 2018 5:24 am

Just as farming can move to cooler environments if local temps increase, ranchers can do the same thing. In fact it is probably easier for a pig farmer to move his operation than it is for a corn farmer.

And I know it is anecdotal evidence, but I have seen more and larger feral pigs in the southern US than in the northern US.

Reply to  ddpalmer
September 27, 2018 8:52 am

I don’t think there are any feral pigs in the northern US (yet).

tty
Reply to  beng135
September 27, 2018 9:19 am

They are even in the Upper Peninsula. It doesn’t get much northerlier than that outside Alaska:

comment image

Reply to  tty
September 28, 2018 6:52 am

tty, like Johnny Carson said “I did not know that”. Unfortunate as they are notoriously destructive to the forest ground. Maybe the coyotes spreading everywhere will challenge them — hunting is so un-PC anymore that people won’t do anything about ’em….

tty
Reply to  beng135
September 28, 2018 9:20 am

“Unfortunate as they are notoriously destructive to the forest ground. ”

Not really. It doesn’t look pretty, but actually the disturbance is good for forest regrowth, at least in Europe.

And I am afraid the coyote are too smart to try and take them on. Too risky. And the pigs are pretty smart animals too, and difficult to hunt, though the meat is excellent (except for old males, which are inedible).
As an acquaintance who was researching wild boars put it: “the difference in average IQ between pigs and hunters is too small”.

RACookPE1978
Editor
Reply to  beng135
September 27, 2018 9:35 am

beng135

I don’t think there are any feral pigs in the northern US (yet).

Many, many tens of thousands of feral pigs are out there. Literally, I ran into one in mid-FL (north of the everglades, on a country road) whose shoulder was higher than the hood of the rental car. 250+ lbs.

tty
September 27, 2018 7:39 am

Actually pigs are among the most eurytopic of animals. They avoid glaciers, tundra and extreme desert but do well almost everywhere else. For example on the Gangetic plain in India with summer temperatures regularly >50 C. As well as southern Iraq, northern Australia and southern Arizona to take a few other areas not exactly noted for cool climate.

September 27, 2018 8:15 am

Anthony:

Looking your real-world graph of pig meat yields, it sure seems that meat yield per pig correlates with per-capita CO2 emissions. Funny that.

September 27, 2018 8:42 am

Limbo for Scientific American — how low can you go?

simple-touriste
Reply to  beng135
September 27, 2018 2:18 pm

Climate change made journalist brains skinnier and titles sillier

September 28, 2018 2:58 pm

When I worked in Nigeria in the mid 1960s there was a Danish tech aid agricultural school at Vom, near Jos in central northern Nigeria that sold their very fine farm products cheaply at a farm store. The pigs they raised were enormous (5-6deg N latitude). The bacon was the best I’ve ever eaten and they sold milk from their dairy and beautiful grapefruit. I joined the Jos horticultural club (largely British) . Members even grew apples and other exotics(!). I say BS on the pigs getting smaller. BTW, I raised my big family on a farm and 4a8sed, am9ng other things, fine pigs in temperatures from -20C to 35C. Do they consult people who know anything or is this all linear, a priori, how-hard-can-it-be thinking.