UPDATES AND LIVE CAM LINK FOLLOWS
The battle of the weather forecast computer models is about to be waged. Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. writes on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/RogerAPielkeSr/status/1032587280404242432
He adds:
If ECMWF is correct..will further cement role as leading global model. But if its wrong….it will elevate USA & other models
@NWSDirector@WeatherTalk@CliffMass@BigJoeBastardi@RyanMaue@curryja@richardabetts If ECMWF is right, however, there should be post mortem as to why
Here’s the latest animation of the Hurricane via infrared satellite view, along with the projected storm tracks from the USA models.
And here are some still images showing radar and cloud cover imaged in infrared:
Now, here is the ECMWF (European) model via Dr. Ryan Maue at weathermodels.com
The ECMWF has some tracks steering the storm into Maui and also Oahu.
Let’s hope it’s wrong.
UPDATE: Dr. Ryan Maue adds on Twitter –
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1032670499099344896
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1032671048960016384
UPDATE: 4:20PM PDT
It seems the forecast tracks are staring to look more Northwesterly, following the actual persistence track.
UPDATE: 630PM PDT
BREAKING: National Weather Service says Hurricane Lane has been downgraded to a Category 3 storm.
— The Associated Press (@AP) August 24, 2018
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1032796821884686336
LiveCam at Waikiki Beach:
From wind observations on nullschool @ur momisugly 1000mb and 850mb it looks like the big Hawaiian rock island may be maintaining Lane’s circulation @ur momisugly 25-30 mph at ~500 miles away.
If true, that surprises the crap out of me. I would expect maybe 200 or so. I’m sure a lot of eyes are watching. First time I had the opportunity to watch/study turbulence in a flow that wasn’t in whitewater. The shape of the southern side of the island at the southern peak on the island with the saddle in the middle is worth mention. This storm will be in future textbooks.