The sun has been blank for 21 straight days–a remarkable 3 weeks without sunspots. This is an almost decade-class event. The last time the sun lost its spots for 21 consecutive days was in the year 2009 coming on the heels of an historic solar minimum. With the current stretch of blank suns, solar minimum conditions have definitely returned.
To find an equal stretch of spotless suns in the historical record, you have to go back to July-August 2009 when the sun was emerging from a century-class solar minimum. We are now entering a new solar minimum, possibly as deep as the last one.
Solar minimum is a normal part of the solar cycle. Every 11 years or so, sunspot production sputters. Dark cores that produce solar flares and CMEs vanish from the solar disk, leaving the sun blank for long stretches of time. These quiet spells have been coming with regularity since the sunspot cycle was discovered in 1859.
However, not all solar minima are alike. The last one in 2008-2009 surprised observers with its depth and side-effects. Sunspot counts dropped to a 100-year low; the sun dimmed by 0.1%; Earth’s upper atmosphere collapsed, allowing space junk to accumulate; and the pressure of the solar wind flaggedwhile cosmic rays (normally repelled by solar wind) surged to Space Age highs. These events upended the orthodox picture of solar minimum as “uneventful.”
Space weather forecasters have long wondered, will the next solar minimum (2018-2020) be as deep as the previous one (2008-2009)? Twenty-one days without sunspots is not enough to answer that question. During the solar minimum of 2008-2009, the longest unbroken interval of spotlessness was ~52 days, adding to a total of 813 intermittent spotless days observed throughout the multi-year minimum. The corresponding totals now are only 21days and 244 days, respectively. If this solar minimum is like the last one, we still have a long way to go.
How does this affect us on Earth? Contrary to popular belief, auroras do not vanish during solar minimum. Instead, they retreat to polar regions and may change color. Arctic sky watchers can still count on good displays this autumn and winter as streams of solar wind buffet Earth’s magnetic field. The biggest change brought by solar minimum may be cosmic rays. High energy particles from deep space penetrate the inner solar system with greater ease during periods of low solar activity. NASA spacecraft and space weather balloons are already detecting an increase in radiation. Cosmic rays alter the flow of electricity through Earth’s atmosphere, trigger lightning, potentially alter cloud cover, and dose commercial air travelers with extra “rads on a plane.”
At the moment there are no nascent sunspots on the solar disk, so the spotless days counter is likely to keep ticking.
Via NASA Spaceweather.com
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English summer up to now has been warmer and sunnier than usual, many people recall and compare it with the memorable summer of 1976, I do too, but how does it compare in reality rather than in our recollections.
Here you can see comparison of the daily CET (Cent. England Temperatures) for 1976 and 2018 with the time scale in ‘days starting with 1st of June.
Although there is no high correlation on the day to day basis there is some more general similarity eg. two sharp peaks at beginning of June and than again sudden jump around 20th of June. We need to see out the second half of the current summer in order to see if there is a some kind of four decadal natural weather pattern ‘memory’.
What indicates a pattern ?, 5 days/5 weeks/5 months/5 years/5 decades….
There is no pattern, too many variables.
Sorry to disappoint, but away from UHI in rural England (at least my part), it’s a pretty ordinary, if somewhat dry, Summer so far.
June was slightly warmer than long term averages; July so far the same. Going back to Spring, it was was cooler than normal. Met Office of course shows all sorts of guff for statistics.
Just weather – but journos and those with an agenda to peddle have to hyperventilate.
Comparison in the link above, shows that late June early July in 1976 was anything up 2 degrees higher , and that makes lot of difference despite all of the current media exaggerations.
It’s been hot certainly, and July 2018 may well break 1976’s value (which isn’t the record anyway, but it holds June’s record). However, I experienced 1976 and neither before nor since have I felt in England the feeling of walking out of doors and straight into a furnace. (Oh, except for August 1990.) 1976 was definitely hotter for its peak 2 weeks straddling June and July.
Rich.
This summer is drier than 1976 – at least so far – and in southern England.
For example Bournemouth airport (Hurn) has received only 1.2 mm since the end of May, and I’m sure most people never noticed as it happened after dark.
The averages for June and July are 76 mm and 60 mm respectively
Then it will be interesting to watch if the West Coast of the US will get less rain this upcoming fall/winter.
The warm dry period of 1976 was preceded by almost as hot a summer in 1975, which was the start of a drought which lasted until the end of August 1976. Ironically the beginning of June 1975 was actually rather cold, on June 2nd a county cricket match at Buxton was stopped because of a snowstorm (a match I was planning to go to)! A few days later it started to heat up and the drought started (a week later a match at the same ground had shirtless spectators sunbathing). As I recall Heathrow recorded ~15 consecutive days of 30ºC in June/July 76
Does this oddly quiet Sun have anything to do with the oddly below average temps in arctic waters? I have been observing the changes here for some years now. These are the coldest arctic water anomalies I have yet to see over the years.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-67.35,80.80,772/loc=-146.901,84.630
that means no UV radiation (well very low). No wonder the global warming indicators are down. But just wait until the Sun comes roaring back…and the UV radiation spikes…then temperatures world-wide will really rise dramatically.
that means the UV radiation is at a low level. No wonder the global warming indicators are down too. But just wait til the Sun comes roaring back…and the UV radiation spikes…the global temperatures will really rise dramatically.
The amplitude of solar wind speed jumps is decreasing.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/van-allen-probes-radiation-belt-plots
That is a nice graph.
The solar radiation power of 10.7 cm is already typical for the solar minimum.
