Guest essay by Eric Worrall
The White House has announced plans to find a way to protect the Earth from dangerous Asteroids.
This Is NASA’s New Plan to Detect and Destroy Asteroids Before They Hit Earth
By Hanneke Weitering, Space.com Staff Writer | June 20, 2018 06:30pm ET
NASA has updated its plans to deflect potentially hazardous Earth-bound asteroids — and none of them involve Bruce Willis.
The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy released a new report today (June 20) titled the “National Near-Earth Object Preparedness Strategy and Action Plan.” The 18-page document outlines the steps that NASA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) will take over the next 10 years to both prevent dangerous asteroids from striking Earth and prepare the country for the potential consequences of such an event.
Officials with NASA, FEMA and the White House discussed the new asteroid-mitigation strategies in a teleconference with the media today. “An asteroid impact is one of the possible scenarios that we must be prepared for,” Leviticus Lewis, chief of FEMA’s National Response Coordination Branch, told reporters during the teleconference, adding that a catastrophic asteroid strike is “a low-probability but high-consequence event” for which “some degree of preparedness is necessary.” [Related: How Trump’s Space Force Would Help Protect Earth from Future Asteroid Threats]
“This plan is an outline not only to enhance the hunt for hazardous asteroids, but also to better predict their chances of being an impact threat well into the future and the potential effects that it could have on Earth,” NASA’s planetary defense officer, Lindley Johnson, said during the teleconference. Johnson added that the plan will help NASA “step up our efforts to demonstrate possible asteroid deflection and other mitigation techniques, and to better formalize across the U.S. government the processes and protocols for dissemination of the best information available so that timely decisions can be made.”
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Read more: https://www.space.com/40943-nasa-asteroid-defense-plan.html
Asteroids are low risk high impact events – the probability of serious impact occurring in anyone’s lifetime is low, even less the probability of actually being personally affected by an impact. But a big impact could destroy a city, or an entire region. A really big impact could destroy civilisation, maybe even wipe out all life on Earth.
I think its worth spending some government money on preparedness. As the Chelyabinsk meteor demonstrated, this threat can emerge suddenly, without warning. Even better detection systems without the deflection capability would give people in regions affected by incoming space debris a chance to find shelter.
The risk from meteors is not just the damage the meteor itself could do. In 2002, a meteor exploded over the Eastern Mediterranean with the force of a small atomic bomb. If the meteor had arrived a few hours earlier, and exploded over India / Pakistan, it could have been mistaken for a first strike and triggered a nuclear war. 2002 was a time of heightened tension between India and Pakistan.
A better detection system, some notice or warning of an incoming meteor, might reduce the risk of a horrible mistake.
Video of a meteor strike in Lapland in 2017
There are actually several feasible deflection/destruction strategies. Remember that the maximum deflection ever needed would be about 4,000 miles, and usually less.
If a threat is detected long in advance one or more gravity tractors with ion engines might suffice.
A faster deflection could be achieved by small nuclear devices exploding near the asteroid. In this case it is not the explosion itself that causes the deflection but rather the recoil force from vaporized asteroid material.
The fastest and most violent method would be to try to deflect or break up an object by a large thermonuclear device. This would probably be the only possible counter to a previously unknown incoming comet.
And, yes, breaking up a large object would usually decrease the total damage. A series of high-altitude explosions would cause local devastation, but a large cratering impact has global effects, as witness Chicxulub.
And please note. Asteroid impact is a proven threat, unlike CAGW. There are more than 200 impact craters world-wide, even though craters are rapidly degraded on Earth and almost none are known from the deep oceans, where most impacts must have happened.
Pres. Reagan’s SDI, Strategic Defense Initiative offer in 1983 that the Soviet turned down, is back on the table. Russia has shown interest in Strategic Defense of the Earth – it would be fantastic if Pres. Trump offers Pres. Putin a game changer. After all it would take military logistics to ever mount a timely intervention. A space hardened military. Imagine these two militaries cooperating! Actually they already did very successfully in WWII.
The Democrats would call that collusion.
The Democrats did their best to poison the U.S./Russia relationship. Maybe Trump can fix it a little.
Not that the Russians are pure as the driven snow, but we do have mutual interests and it is in noone’s interest to have an adversarial relationship. Although a lot of that depends on how Putin acts in the future, but we should at least talk.
When Trump took over from Obama, Obama told him that North Korea would be Trump’s most pressing problem. Trump asked Obama if he had ever tried to talk to Kim. Obama said he had not. Trump thought that was kind of stupid and decided to do a little talking before going to war, and guess what, Kim wanted to do some talking, too.
So we should talk to Russia. The Russian people are good people just like all the rest of us peons in the world. It’s their leadership that is lacking.
That the Russians themselves are good people is not the question. The Russian people have little say in who leads them.
Just look at the popularity ratings – nowhere in the crumbling EU especially Britain, or even the US is such to be seen. And don’t give me Chatham House RIIA balderdash. Trump will meet Putin soon – there is a lot to be discussed, in spite of the failed British russiagate, Skripal attempted murder, fake-flag white-helmet gas attacks. It must be chew-the-carpet time in Whitehall, and Buckingham. What will the rage-balls think of next? Crash the City’s financial system deliberately? Deutsche Bank ? N. Prins had identified that caper. They are nuts enough to try. Trump (and Bernie and Italy) all have Glass-Steagall on the table to counter this warfare. Let London just try!
Hint. Don’t drink before posting.
Why don’t you try again after you sober up.
Maybe they should practice on stopping a slow, low energy threat (like a volcano) first ….before having a go at fast, high energy stuff like Asteroids.
Apples and oranges.
Exactly how do you push a volcano so that it doesn’t erupt?
Well, this will be a ginormous waste of money much like every dollar spent on global warming. But at least some useful technology would probably be developed from it.
That asteroids have hit the planet is proven.
That several big enough to do damage have hit the planet in the last 100 years is not in doubt.
Why do you say that any effort to prevent further impacts is a waste of money?
Freshman Physics-101 shows that sufficient momentum cannot be transferred, and the Precautionary Principle is the exclamation point.
What makes you believe that?
It all depends on the warning time. Adding a velocity vector of one millimeter per second will cause an asteroid aimed dead center to miss Earth completely after 200 years.
Now, I don’t think we can calculate orbits that closely so far forward in time, so in practice you would need to achieve maybe a 5 millimeters per second vector.
One millimeter per second is enough to change the course by 31,000 km after just 10 years.
No, check your math: 0.001 m/s * 10 yr * 365.25 day/yr * 24 hr/day * 3600 s/hr = 315,576 m = 316 km. You are off by two orders of magnitude.
Earth’s diameter is about 12,749 km.
And no one thinks about what happens if the moon would be hit.
Why should anyone care if the moon is hit? At least prior to any manned moon colonies.
Shrapnel ?
Small stuff and low velocity.
We would probably get one helluva lot of meteorites the next few centuries, probably including some quite destructive impacts until most fragments had been “swept up”.
Google “L Chondrite parent body”
Only if the impactor is huge, like 100 miles across. Even then, most of the debris will be small stuff and hit the earth with low velocities.
Nothing can hit the Earth with a lower velocity than 11 km/s.
From the Report: “This assessment should include the most mature in-space concepts—kinetic impactors, nuclear devices, and gravity tractors for deflection, and nuclear devices for disruption—as well as less mature NEO impact prevention methods.”
One of those less mature prevention methods will be using lasers to deflect asteriods.
https://phys.org/news/2016-03-laser-weapon-earth-killer-asteroids.html
“Potentially hazardous asteroids are still looming large in the minds of scientists engaged in planetary defense issues. Numerous strategies describing deflection of near-Earth objects (NEOs) have been proposed, including methods employing kinetic impactors, robotic mining, and gravity tractors. However, one of the concepts has recently received attention as one of the most serious proposals.
The project, named DE-STAR (Directed Energy System for Targeting of Asteroids and exploRation), envisions a large phased-array laser in Earth orbit to deflect asteroids, comets, and other NEOs endangering the planet. There is also a much smaller, though similar system being considered, called DE-STARLITE, that could travel alongside the target, slowly deflecting it from nearby over a long period.
According to the authors of these proposals, their goal was to create an orbital planetary defense system capable of heating the surface of potentially hazardous objects to the point of vaporization. They emphasize that vaporization on the surface of an object continually ejects vaporized material, creating a reactionary force that pushes the object into a new path. This can be accomplished by lasers deployed on spacecraft stationed near the asteroid [or by high-powered lasers in Earth orbit].
The system should be capable of projecting a laser at a distant asteroid with sufficient flux to heat a spot on the surface and vaporize solid rock. Currently, high-powered lasers deliver sufficient energy density to melt and vaporize any known material.
“Generally speaking, the technology is available today. The main challenge with building a full DE-STAR is the necessary scale to be effective,” Qicheng Zhang of the University of California, Santa Barbara, one of the authors of the project, told Astrowatch.net.
Zhang and his colleagues claim that if DE-STAR had a 330-feet-wide phased laser array, it could divert volatile-laden asteroids 330 feet in diameter by initiating engagement at about two million miles. However, DE-STARLITE, being a much smaller and less expensive system, is the more practical option. For instance, a 20 kW version of DE-STARLITE operating for 15 years could deflect an Apophis-size (1,066 feet) asteroid at a distance equal to Earth’s diameter. A 1 MW version could deflect all known threats up to 1,640 feet in diameter with five-year laser activity.
end excerpt
A large Solar Power Satellite could produce 1 GW or more.
NASA is thinking too small! 🙂
How is it that you never heard of a neutron pumped hafnium gamma laser? Please correct this deficiency – it could be fatal. Hint – SDI.
Tom, you posted: “From the Report: ‘This assessment should include the most mature in-space concepts—kinetic impactors, nuclear devices, and gravity tractors for deflection, . . .’ ”
Sorry, I could not read beyond this point due to my laughing fit from trying to reconcile “gravity tractors” with “mature in-space concepts”.
Beam me up, Scotty!
We have had several spacecraft match orbits with comets in recent years, so I guess such a vehicle could qualify as a potential gravity tractor, and one of them even used a kinetic impactor. 🙂
Compare the mass of those vehicles to the mass of the comets or asteroids they encountered (one spacecraft, NEAR Shoemaker, actually rendezvoused with an asteroid).
I think you will find the asteroid or comet is always the “gravity tractor” and the spacecraft is always the “tractee”.
Such encounters make no detectable change in the orbits of these celestial bodies.
BTW, Japan’s Hayabusa 2 spacecraft is planned to rendezvous with the asteroid Ryugu on June 27. The plan is for the spacecraft to land on the asteroid, retrieve samples and return them to Earth around the end of 2020.
“Such encounters make no detectable change in the orbits of these celestial bodies.”
No, but then they aren’t gravity tractors.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_tractor
Exactly my point. Most people don’t have a clue of how large a spacecraft (and its propulsion system) would need to be to make it into a “gravity tractor” that could make a detectable change in the heliocentric orbit of a 1 km diameter asteroid, let alone a 10 km diameter asteroid.
Right now, the concept of a workable “gravity tractor” is pure fantasy.
I think this is code for …. let’s get back to discovering and learning to use new technology. Most all of the technology we use today was created for other uses, like space, military, etc. The key is, you have to assign such research to some goal, like deflecting asteroids. No one really expects to be able to deflect a killer asteroid, but the technology developed towards that goal could benefit earth and humanity greatly.
I totally agree, divert the billions spent on stupid programs, like climate change, to more productive endeavors.
I really expect humans to be able to deflect killer asteriods. It might take 100 years. So your assumption about “no one really expects…” is wrong. Otherwise you are correct.
I suggest that an EMP strike – natural or manmade – is a moderate-to-high risk, high-impact event with avoidance/mitigation preparations well within our technological and financial means. NASA should take a whack at that first.
You mean the Carrington Flare? Sure – grid hardening should be a priority especially going into a Solar minimum. The physics question why CME’s seem to be more prevalent then is priority.
Put 50-megaton H-bomb in Saturn V rocket to blast a giant asteroid out of orbit in the asteroid belt.
Dr. Strangelove likes the plan
A hilarious movie – all the crazy stuff is there including your namesake Leo Szilard.
Dr. Strangelove was inspired by Henry Kissinger, crossed with Werner v. Braun and Edward Teller, and Pres. Muffley by Adlai Stevenson.
I agree. I was going to post that with precision you could detonate a Hydrogen Bomb next to it to deflect it so that it would miss the earth…not easy to do…but feasible.
In the vacuum of space, what exactly is there to apply a force to the object ??
I think it might need a push, and a constant push.
Better detection doesn’t do anything without the ability to remove the menace. You are not going to remove the menace with ground based capabilities. The best method of removing the menace of a large impact object is intercepting and breaking it up, and no one would know for sure how much force that would take or how the object would break up – knock a small piece off it and create a worse impact trajectory being a possibility.
In other words, the only way this would work is putting nuclear devices into orbit – very large nuclear devices, and that would be the same as weaponizing the orbital space. Sounds harmless until someone decides to use those nuclear devices for other purposes than intended. The risks of an impact are far smaller than that an idiot would use weapons for war.
Nuclear devices are just one of many different methods being discussed.
Why do you assume that the nukes have to be in orbit prior to use?
The good thing is that it is more closely related to what NASA is supposed to be doing.
Giving more money to actual scientists and engineers for space activities will always be better than giving to global-warming bedwetters who just like to imagine potential environmental catastrophes for a living, but always get it wrong. Could you imagine a NASA that had never actually successfully launched an object into earth orbit? Would they still be deserving of funding? Of course not. The charlatans reading the entrails of climate science predictions need to be defunded ASAP. They don’t even want to create anything of value for the human race. Their motivations are wrong from the getgo.
Treatment of asteroids is fairly simple if you just apply the asteroid cream early and often.
This is definitely an appropriate subject for some preliminary research. The problem breaks down into a very difficult series of escalating risk scenarios. Small asteroids that are far out can be dealt with using present technology if we are ready to act quickly. Larger ones that are far out are not solvable problems at present but we may have some viable options depending on circumstances. Small ones that are detected with little notice are presently beyond our capability to stop[, destroy or deflect but a space based interception system might be deployable with present technology if we do it in advance. The granddaddy is a large one that comes around the sun, giving us inadequate warning of something that is globally catastrophic. No answer to this even on the drawing board. The dinosaurs didn’t have an answer either.
Detectors in solar orbit, with at least one always on the opposite side of the sun from earth. Might need a relay reflector for when our star blocks the warning signal.
What did the blond, alterante-energy-enthusiast, asteroid expert do, when a large, life-threatening asteroid was detected ?
She arranged to have the asteroid aimed for a region of Earth as far away from her as possible, and to harness all its impact energy to power the factories that made her hair products, to keep her looking good for years to come.
Other benefits included reduction of world population to reduce stress on Gaia. A win-win.
Starship troopers – so them bugs no more be threatning earth!
https://www.google.at/search?q=science+fiction+bugs+threatning+earth&oq=science+fiction+bugs+threatning+earth&aqs=chrome.
https://www.google.at/search?q=starship+troopers&client=ms-android-samsung&prmd=ivn&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjw7vSQ6ufbAhWjF5oKHZXtDEAQ_AUIESgB
Easy enough to do IF you detect the threat in time and have deep space flight capabilites. Which we don’t at this time.
If you there a variety of methods to deflect objects – I prefer the land on the rock and deploy a solar sail one. Or you could use an orbiting mirror to concentrate sunlight onto if it’s a big snowball. Melt it down enough to change its velocity.
I guess we can’t charge extra for services to those countries that ignored it or were busy investing in climate change. It’s an all or nothing effort.
Sure, sure . . . and since money is no concern, coming next: NASA’s plans to repel the Klingon fleet.
“The Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) was set up in 1984 within the United States Department of Defense to oversee development. A wide array of advanced weapon concepts, including lasers,[2][3] particle beam weapons and ground- and space-based missile systems were studied, along with various sensor, command and control, and high-performance computer systems that would be needed to control a system consisting of hundreds of combat centers and satellites spanning the entire globe. A number of these concepts were tested through the late 1980s, and follow-on efforts and spin-offs continue to this day.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Defense_Initiative
“In September 2013, the Catalina and Pan-STARRS sky surveys spotted a mysterious object in the asteroid belt, a region of rocky debris that occupy the space between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter. Follow-up observations by the Keck Observatory in Hawaii resolved three separate objects within the fuzzy cloud. It was so strange that Hubble mission managers decided to use the space telescope”
https://www.seeker.com/hubble-witnesses-mysterious-breakup-of-asteroid-1768367896.html
Was the hubble pointed at that particular spot in space for the reason of viewing the results of a test that was carried out by SDIO or what ever they call themselves these days? The natural reason for it blowing up was the sun causing it to spin faster and heat up and rip apart. BUT why was it the only one to go through this process of ripping apart when surrounded by other asteroids. Did the sun target this asteroid or was it a test carried out by the Defence Department.???
It is nice to see that the Obama-era plan has been fleshed out and in the current plan the real rubber-hits-the-road moment is,
Asteroid interception is where the goofiest ideas emerge to monopolize discussion and take debate away from practical ideas that would give us a chance of survival in all cases. When you interrupt geeks talking about their favorite solution, something like deploying solar sails to nudge asteroids, to point out their scenario is for an extremely narrow case and it would be irresponsible to pursue such an idea to the exclusion of more practical ones… they get all but-hurt.
My own solution which I’ve broadcast to Trump and two NASA directors and others, is simple and direct. No nukes or exotic technology.
1. kinetic impactor rockets loaded with payloads of simple Lunar dirt
2. missile battery on Moon, manned, truly ready to launch at a moment’s notice
3. hundreds, even thousands — that can swarm to ensure multiplicity and mass
4. the result: best possible assurance of success for an existential threat
Anything less, or more, is a half solution or placebo fantasy to appease fanboys of exotic and impractical technology.
this is an interesting animation of NEAs for a flat earther
What is the estimated life-cycle cost to emplace your proposed fleet of rockets on the Moon and to have them suitably housed so that they don’t appreciably degrade over, say, 20 years of projected operational readiness?
I’ll even accept that you don’t need to include the cost of having the humans on the Moon for this purpose because it should be feasible to use robots instead, thereby saving enormous costs.
Get back to me on this estimate, and how many times the world’s GDP it will be.
Shouls be discussed with President Putin next month. Russia proposed a joint project “Strategic Defense of Earth,” 7 years and has already begun . But of course it fell on the big, deaf ears of the jerk then in the WH.
So, do the deflect or destroy meteorites? Can they even chose? If you cant put enough energy into destroy it the only result might be deflection. SO does NASA nudge them out of the way of the US only for them to fall on some other country?
Nope ! IT JUST WON’T WORK WITHOUT BRUCE !!