Study: Republicans more persuasive than scientists on 'climate change'

From the UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT and the “that’s going to leave a mark” department comes this bit of news that’s sure to cause some heads to explode.

Regardless of political affiliation, people are more likely to believe facts about climate change when they come from Republicans speaking against what has become a partisan interest in this country, says a new University of Connecticut study.

In fact, Republicans are even more persuasive than scientists when it comes to correcting misinformation about climate change, researchers found.

“Unfortunately, correcting misinformation is much harder than simply providing ‘facts’,” says Lyle Scruggs, professor of political science at UConn, who co-authored the paper with Salil Benegal, a recent UConn Ph.D. graduate, now at DePauw University. The study is published in Climatic Change.

“For science issues such as climate change, we might expect scientists to be a credible and neutral authority,” says Benegal. “However, partisanship increasingly influences perceptions of scientific credibility.”

The study included 1,341 people, data collected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and focused on a specific partisan issue on which scientific consensus has been widely adopted by Democrats but challenged by Republicans. Participants included those who self-identified as Republicans, Democrats, or Independents.

As expected, study authors found a partisan gap between Democrats and Republicans in their stated opinions on climate change, with Democrats expressing the highest level of concern and scientific agreement. The partisan gap diminished, however, with corrective information.

In the study, misinformation was corrected by factual information from different sources stating the presence of broad scientific consensus that climate change is happening and attributable to human activity.

All participants, regardless of partisanship, received factual corrections after reading a statement denying climate change. The corrections were randomly attributed to Republicans, Democrats, or non-partisan climate scientists.

Overall, participants found the most effective corrections came from Republicans rather than non-partisan scientists or Democrats. This transcended partisan leanings, researchers found.

“This may be because Republicans who make such statements are engaging in more potentially costly behavior that lend them additional persuasive value,” the authors say.

Republican political identity is now perhaps associated with climate change denial. As such, Republicans engaging in pro-climate change discourse is more “surprising” to all citizens, the authors say.

The researchers examined the issue in an attempt to determine which sources of information are the most effective in persuading individuals to reject misinformation on the topic of climate change.

The findings have implications for environmental communication strategies that seek to improve awareness about climate change.

“Citing Republican elites who endorse the scientific consensus on climate change may be the most effective way to persuade citizens that climate change is a real and important problem,” says Scruggs. “That may be a step forward in reducing the partisan gap in public opinion on the subject.”

###

The study: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-018-2192-4

Correcting misinformation about climate change: the impact of partisanship in an experimental setting

Abstract

Misperceptions of the scientific consensus on climate change are an important problem in environmental policy. These misperceptions stem from a combination of ideological polarization and statements from prominent politicians who endorse information contradicting or misrepresenting the scientific consensus on climate change. Our study tests a source credibility theory of correction using different partisan sources of information in a survey experiment. We find that corrections from Republicans speaking against their partisan interest are most likely to persuade respondents to acknowledge and agree with the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change. The extent of these effects vary by the partisanship of the recipient. Our results suggest that the partisan gap on climate change can be reduced by highlighting the views of elite Republicans who acknowledge the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change.

Replication materials for this study are available at https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/KV6S5V

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MikeN
April 19, 2018 12:45 pm

Did they do any corrections that disagreed with consensus, coming from Republicans, Democrats, Independents? Or do these researchers just assume that one viewpoint is correct?
“This may be because Republicans who make such statements are engaging in more potentially costly behavior that lend them additional persuasive value,” the authors say.
This is obvious. It’s why using the IPCC to argue against climate alarmists is so effective. Chevron just won a big case doing that.

April 19, 2018 1:26 pm

Last night, a NOVA program was aired on NATGEO channel that repeated all the old tired BS about humans causing the climate to alter its “normal” course.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Chad Jessup
April 19, 2018 1:43 pm

What a waste of time in the internet age of fact checking.

GoFigure560
April 19, 2018 2:16 pm

There’s a simple explanation for why proponents of CAGW, “scientists” in particular, are having difficulty convincing folks: They have no evidence. All the evidence is against them.
The proponents of anthropogenic-caused global warming (hereinafter referred to as “alarmists”) invariably, and ironically, DENY that the Medieval Warming Period (MWP, 1,000 years ago) was global and likely warmer than it is now. These folks acknowledge only that Europe experienced the MWP. They likely take this unjustifiable position because their computer models cannot explain a global, warmer MWP. Why? Because their models require on increasing co2 level, plus depend even more on the built-in ASSUMPTION that water vapor feedback, the actual culprit, causes 2 to 3 times the temperature increase brought on by the corresponding increase in co2. However, co2 did not begin increasing until the 1800s, long after the MWP.
With no co2 increase there is obviously also no further temperature increase provided by water vapor feedback. The MWP global temperature increase must have been nothing more than natural climate variation. It therefore becomes plausible that our current warming (such as it is) may also be due to NATURAL climate variation. But that, of course, conflicts with the UN’s IPCC (and other alarmists’) claim that our current warming is mostly due to the human-caused increase in co2. The issue of climate influence on polar bear population can be dismissed because polar bears were around long before the MWP and survived that warmer era.
A brief meta-analysis follows to demonstrate that the MWP was indeed global and at least as warm as it is now.
First, the MWP trend is conclusively shown to be global by borehole temperature data. The 6,000 boreholes are scattered around the globe, and not constrained to just those locals where ice core data was used. A great discussion of the borehole data can be found at Joanne Nova’s website.
Next, the receding Mendenhall glacier (Alaska) recently exposed a 1,000 year-old shattered forest, still in its original position. No trees (let alone a forest) have grown at that latitude anywhere near that site since the MWP. It was obviously warmer in that part of Alaska than it is now. Alaska is quite distant from Europe.
Finally, there have been hundreds of peer-reviewed MWP studies, and the earlier results (showing a global, warmer MWP) were reflected in earlier IPCC reports. These studies were carried out around the globe by investigators and organizations representing numerous countries. It’s curious that Mann and his cohort did not give more consideration to those study results before presenting their conflicting “hockey stick” claim. One of their own players, Phil Jones, admitted publicly that if the MWP was global and as warm as now then it was a different “ballgame”. It’s worth noting that studies continue to regularly show up confirming that the MWP was warmer than now.
Focus on the subset of the MWP studies which directly address temperature estimates. The Greenland Temperature (gisp2) study, for example, shows, among other things, that Greenland was warmer during the MWP than it is now. Greenland is distant from both Europe and Alaska.
These numerous MWP studies have been cataloged at the co2science.org website. Dr. Idso, the proprietor of that website, is a known skeptic. However, the studies were independently performed by numerous researchers using various temperature proxy techniques and representing many different countries. The studies also span several decades.
Interested readers should satisfy themselves by going to co2science.org and choosing (say) a half dozen regions (all should be remote from Alaska, Greenland, and Europe). Choose at least one temperature study from each selected region. You will find that each of the selected sites were warmer during the MWP than now. These study results are consistent with the temperature trend provided by borehole data.
There is also other confirming observations which include antique vineyards found at latitudes where grapes cannot be grown today, old burial sites found below the perma-frost, and Viking maps of most of Greenland’s coastline.
This meta-analysis is comprised of straight-forward non-controversial studies. The MWP studies as well as various other data and are all consistent with the borehole data results. This meta-study does NOT involve the use of controversial “models”, or dubious statistical machinations.
One of the “talking points” posed by alarmists, to “rebut” the claim of a global, warmer MWP is that warming in all regions during the MWP must be synchronous. Obviously the MWP studies sited herein were generally performed independently, so start and end dates of each study during the MWP will vary. However, anyone foolish enough to accept that “synchronous” constraint must be ready to accept that our current warming would also not qualify as a global event.
For example, many alarmists go back into the 1800s when making their claims about the total global warming temperature increase. However, that ignores a three decade GLOBAL cooling period from about 1945 to 1975. That non-synchronous period is much more significant than just a region or two being “out of synch”.
There are also other reasons to exclude consideration of temperature increases during the 1800s. There was a significant NATURAL warming beginning around 1630 (the first low temperature experienced during the LIA) and that period of increasing temperatures ran at least until 1830 (perhaps until 1850) before co2 began increasing. However, it would have taken many decades, possibly more than a century, for co2 increase following 1830, at an average 2 ppmv per year, to accrue sufficiently to have ANY impact on thermometer measurements. Neither is there any reason to expect that the 200 years of natural and significant warming beginning in 1630 ended abruptly, after 2 centuries, merely because co2 level began increasing in 1830 at a miniscule 2ppmv per year. How much, and for how long was the temperature increase after 1830 due to a continued natural climate warming?
Any current considerations about global warming must be constrained to a starting point no earlier than 1975. The global temperature began increasing in 1975 and that increase basically terminated during the 1997/98 el Nino. Even the IPCC (a bureaucracy which cannot justify its mission if current warming is NATURAL) has acknowledged another GLOBAL “hiatus” in temperature increase following 1998. NASA, in comparing recent candidate years for “hottest” was talking about differences of a few hundredths of one degree. It’s clear that the uncertainty error is likely greater than one tenth of a degree. Some argue that the error is as much as one degree.
So, all this controversy involves just two decades, and that warming has been followed by almost another two decades of no further statistically significant increase in temperature. But wait … ! It turns out that even the period from 1975 to 1998 apparently does not qualify as a global warming period because there were numerous “out of synch” regions and/or countries which have experienced no additional warming over durations which include the 1975-1998 span.
http://notrickszone.com/2018/02/18/greenland-antarctica-and-dozens-of-areas-worldwide-have-not-seen-any-warming-in-60-years-and-more/#sthash.5Hq7Xqdh.JsV4juVL.dpbs
Another alarmist rebuttal attempt is that the MWP studies cataloged by co2science.org have been cherry-picked. Readers should satisfy themselves by searching for conflicting credible peer-reviewed MWP temperature studies which have not been cataloged by co2science.org. But, keep in mind that a few stray conflicting studies will not likely have much impact, because, as the previous link demonstrates, there is no shortage of regions showing no increasing warming during the supposedly 1975-1998 global warming period.
There are also other reasons to exclude consideration of temperature increases during the 1800s. There was a significant NATURAL warming beginning around 1630 (the first low temperature experienced during the LIA) and that period of increasing temperatures ran at least until 1830 (perhaps until 1850) when co2 began increasing. However, it would have taken many decades, possibly more than a century, for co2 increase following 1830, at an average 2 ppmv per year, to accrue sufficiently before having ANY impact on thermometer measurements. Neither is there any reason to expect that the 200 years of natural and significant warming beginning in 1630 ended abruptly, after 2 centuries, merely because co2 level began increasing in 1830 at a miniscule 2ppmv per year. How much of the temperature increase after 1830 was merely continued natural climate warming?

gofigure560
Reply to  GoFigure560
April 19, 2018 2:26 pm

oops.
The last paragraph is basically a repeat, so can be deleted.

Jonathan Griggs
April 19, 2018 3:04 pm

The part that makes me interested here is

In the study, misinformation was corrected by factual information from different sources stating the presence of broad scientific consensus that climate change is happening and attributable to human activity.

What “factual information” was given to these people and what errors were they supposedly correcting? This tells me that the people in this study fell prey to the consensus argument only because a Republican restated it. Personally I don’t give a dang who states it, science doesn’t care about your consensus. That’s not how any of this works.

All participants, regardless of partisanship, received factual corrections after reading a statement denying climate change.

Why were they not measured against factual corrections after reading a statement proclaiming climate change to be catastrophic? Alarmist statements often have large amounts of factual errors. Heck, that one of the main reason for this site to exist, to call out those factual errors when an alarmist tries to put out a statement. Personally this tells me that the study was biased to begin with.

WBWilson
Reply to  Jonathan Griggs
April 20, 2018 7:17 am

Here is the “misinformation”:
Misinformation article (shown to all treatment groups):
Senator James Inhofe (R-OK), Chairman of the Senate Environment Committee, stated in an interview last month that environmental regulations aimed at addressing climate change were “alarmist” and that the science over climate change remains unsettled.
“It’s important to question whether climate change is even a problem for human existence,” Inhofe said. “Thus far no one has seriously demonstrated any scientific proof that increased global temperatures would lead to the catastrophes predicted by alarmists. The claim that global warming is caused by man- made emissions is simply untrue and not based on sound science.”
Inhofe has made similar comments in the past, most notably during a Senate speech in 2015 when he argued that the earth is currently in a cooling period. Inhofe has been a strong critic of recent federal bills aiming to cut carbon pollution by regulating power plant emissions and oil drilling. The regulations pose a serious threat to the country’s economy, he said.
And here is the “correction,” falsely attributed either to Republicans, Scientists, or in this case Democrats:
However, several Democrats have been critical of Inhofe’s remarks on climate change. Senators Brian Schatz (D-HI) and Maria Cantwell (D-WA) pointed to recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that recently declared that human activities have caused most of earth’s temperature rise since 1950 and will continue to do so in the future. The IPCC, which is a non-partisan panel of scientists from over 100 countries, estimates that global temperatures may increase by as much as 4.8oC over pre-industrial levels by 2100. Democrat Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) said, “When you have over 90 percent of the world’s scientists who have studied this stating that climate change is occurring and that humans play a contributing role, it’s time to defer to the experts.”
Then you answer the survey questions:
Survey questions
Post-treatment opinion questions on climate change (names in parentheses indicate variable names in replication data.dta)
Now, please state your level of agreement with the following statements on a scale of 1-10, 10 indicating the strongest level of agreement.
Scientific consensus on climate change (Sciconsensus)
There is a general consensus among scientists that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades.
1 (Strongly disagree) (1)
2 (2)
3 (3)
4 (4)
5 (5)
6 (6)
7 (7)
8 (8)
9 (9)
10 (Strongly agree) (10)
Climate change mostly anthropogenic (CChumans)
The problem of climate change is mainly due to human activity such as burning fossil fuels. 1 (Strongly disagree) (1)
2 (2)
3 (3)
4 (4)
5 (5)
6 (6)
7 (7)
8 (8)
9 (9)
10 (Strongly agree) (10)
Climate change an important problem (CCserious)
How important a problem do you think climate change is at this moment, on a scale of 1-10? 1 (Not important at all) (1)
2 (2)
3 (3)
4 (4)
5 (5)
6 (6)
7 (7)
8 (8)
9 (9)
10 (Very important) (10)
Which of the following statements best summarizes the article that you just read? (attention)
1___ Senator James Inhofe is skeptical about climate change
2___ Senator James Inhofe believes that climate change is an urgent problem
3___Senator James Inhofe is optimistic about the 2016 election
4___Senator James Inhofe wants bipartisan policy on climate change
Evidently the “correction” being attributed to the Republicans was more persuasive. Sheesh!

Rich Davis
April 19, 2018 4:15 pm

“There was a significant NATURAL warming beginning around 1630…”
Didn’t you mean COOLING?
[???? .mod]

ferdberple
April 19, 2018 4:31 pm

endorse the scientific consensus on climate change
=========
I can’t think of anything less scientific than a vote on which scientific theory is correct.
any time you need to vote in science it is proof you are on shaky ground and the science cannot be trusted.

Reply to  ferdberple
April 19, 2018 5:40 pm

ferdberple
That may have been true when the consensus was 97%
and the “confidence level” was 95%
I don’t know where you’ve been,
but the AGW consensus
is now 105%, with 103% confidence
— the scientists are SO CERTAIN
that even if 5% change their minds,
they are still 100% certain.
This is real climate science.
Not that complicated stuff you studied in school

Maroon
Reply to  Richard Greene
April 21, 2018 4:42 pm

Since the 97% census study was debunked long ago, since when , and where is there a new study. You seem to be making stuff up.

michael hart
April 19, 2018 5:25 pm

“…a recent UConn Ph.D. graduate..”

UConn
IConn
TheyConned
WeshalloverConn
ItgoesonandonConn.com

Roger Knights
April 19, 2018 9:32 pm

“Citing Republican elites who endorse the scientific consensus on climate change may be the most effective way to persuade citizens that climate change is a real and important problem,” says Scruggs. “That may be a step forward in reducing the partisan gap in public opinion on the subject.”

For three years I’ve worried that they would catch on to this!

April 20, 2018 4:07 am

I’m still wondering why, after hundreds of billions spent on Climate Change research, hasn’t anyone come up with anything concrete?
The best the American Physics Society can put forward is ‘the Greenhouse Effect is generally accepted. No proofs, no experiments, just anecdotal statements that lead to circular arguments.

ROBERT FISHER
April 20, 2018 4:17 am

All you have to do is look at the terms people use. If they say deny, denier, or belief – they are using the term of a religionist or politician. Scientists shouldn’t use those terms of they understand anything about the scientific method.

s-t
April 20, 2018 9:18 am

IOW, decades of attacks by liberals against conservatives have bolstered the moral stature of the people attacked.
Go propaganda go!

Maroon
April 21, 2018 4:39 pm

So what did Democrats say when an “elite” Dem came out against AGW. This is a biased study , making me discount it right there. And since when is the consensus make AGW credible. Science isn’t about consensus, it is about facts. The more I read, the more I see the AGW alarmists have lied and changed data. Why I am I supposed to believe these consensus scientists.