The DIY Climate Sensitivity Toolkit

Guest disalarmism by David Middleton

Do you ever watch the DIY Network?  The TV network where they have all the “Do It Yourself” home improvement shows?  I don’t watch it because I can’t do anything like that myself.  If a home improvement or repair project is much beyond duct tape and bungee cords, I’m on the phone to a professional in a heartbeat.  When I was a bachelor, the pipe under my kitchen sink was leaking.  So I wrapped in in duct tape and put a bowl under it.  Whenever it started to leak again, I wrapped it with more duct tape.  I actually left the roll of duct tape attached to the pipe, so I could easily wrap more duct tape.  When I got married and we renovated the house, the plumbers actually took pictures of my “handiwork.”   Is it duct tape or duck tape?  But I digress…

I may not be able to fix things around the house, but it occurred to me that if the climate (e.g. average surface temperature of the Earth) is sensitive to atmospheric CO2, there ought to be a simple DIY way to demonstrate it.  So, I broke out two of my favorite data sets: Moberg et al., 2005 (a non-hockey stick 2,000 year northern hemisphere climate reconstruction) and MacFarling-Meure et al., 2006 (a fairly high resolution CO2 record from the Law Dome, Antarctica ice cores).

For the sake of this exercise, I am going to assume that the “greenhouse” warming effect of CO2 is logarithmic.  While this is not necessarily a safe assumption, it’s a good bet that it is a diminishing returns function… So a logarithmic function is probably good enough for a DIY project.

The first thing I did was to crossplot the Moberg temperature anomalies against the MacFarling-Meure CO2 values…

Moberg_MacFarlingMeure_01

Figure 1. CO2 vs temperature 0-1979 AD. A really bad correlation below 285 ppm.

R² = 0.0741… not exactly a robust correlation.  Why is the correlation so bad below 285 ppm?  Well, that’s the data from the lower resolution DSS core.  What happens if we only use the data from the very high resolution DE08 core?

Moberg_MacFarlingMeure_02

Figure 2. CO2 vs temperature 1850-1979. A much better correlation with a very low climate sensitivity.

R² = 0.1994… Roughly a 20% explained variance… Not too shabby for noisy climate data.  We also get a climate sensitivity that is in line with other recent observation-derived TCR (transient climate response) estimates: 1.23 °C per doubling of atmospheric CO2 .  Note that this puts the “we’re all going to die” 2.0 °C limit out to about 720 ppm CO2 and the “women, children and poor people will die” 1.5 °C limit out to about 560 ppm CO2.  So, it’s not worse than we thought, unless you’re an alarmist.  Then it’s probably worse than you will believe.  1.23 °C is very close to the IPCC TAR estimate of 1.2 °C sans feedback mechanisms.

If the amount of carbon dioxide were doubled instantaneously, with everything else remaining the same, the outgoing infrared radiation would be reduced by about 4 Wm-2. In other words, the radiative forcing corresponding to a doubling of the CO2 concentration would be 4 Wm-2. To counteract this imbalance, the temperature of the surface-troposphere system would have to increase by 1.2°C (with an accuracy of ±10%), in the absence of other changes. In reality, due to feedbacks, the response of the climate system is much more complex. It is believed that the overall effect of the feedbacks amplifies the temperature increase to 1.5 to 4.5°C. A significant part of this uncertainty range arises from our limited knowledge of clouds and their interactions with radiation. To appreciate the magnitude of this temperature increase, it should be compared with the global mean temperature difference of perhaps 5 or 6°C from the middle of the last Ice Age to the present interglacial.

IPCC TAR, 2001

Things aren’t looking too good for feedback amplification.

The next thing I DIY’ed was to calculate a “CO2 temperature” using this equation:

T = 1.7714ln(CO2) – 10.305

Moberg_MacFarlingMeure_03

Figure 3. Moberg temperature reconstruction, “CO2 temperature”, Moberg temperature minus CO2 effect and CO2.

The gray curve is the Moberg temperature reconstruction, the red dashed curve is Moberg at a constant 277 ppmv CO2.  Not much difference between the gray and red dashed curves.

Let’s now apply this to the HadCRUT4 northern hemisphere temperature series (via Wood for Trees).

Moberg_MacFarlingMeure_04

Figure 4. HadCRUT4 northern hemisphere (1979-2017), “CO2 temperature” and HadCRUT 4 minus “CO2 temperature.”

Northern hemisphere warming since 1979

  • Total: 0.91 °C (0.01 to 0.92)
  • CO2-driven: 0.33 °C (0.00 to 0.33)
  • Not CO2-driven: 0.58 °C (0.01 to 0.59)

This would suggest that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are only responsible for 36% of the warming since 1979.

Let’s now look at some RCP (representative concentration pathways) scenarios.

Moberg_MacFarlingMeure_05

Figure 5. “CO2 temperature calculations for RCP 4.5, 6.0 and Bad SyFy 8.5 along with an extrapolation of MLO CO2 and HadCRUT4 31-yr average.

With a 1.23 °C climate sensitivity, not even the Bad SyFy RCP8.5 exceeds the “we’re all going to die” 2.0 °C limit and RCP4.5 and 6.0 pretty well stay below the “women, children and poor people will die” 1.5 °C limit.  Note than an exponential extrapolation of MLO CO2 basically tracks RCP4.5.  Also note that HadCRUT4 clearly exhibits a ~60-yr cyclical variation and continued warming from the Little Ice Age (part of a ~1,000-yr cyclical variation).  For those math purists who object to my geological use of the word “cyclical,” pretend that I wrote “quasi-periodic fluctuation.”

The Phanerozoic Eon

This is all well and good for the Late Holocene; but what about the rest of the Phanerozoic Eon?  Thanks to Bill Illis, I have this great set of paleoclimate spreadsheets.  One of the paleo temperature data sets was the pH-corrected version of Veizer’s Phanerozoic reconstruction from Royer et al., 2004.  The Royer temperature series was smoothed (spline fit?) to a 10 million year sample interval matching Berner’s GeoCarb III,  thus facilitating crossplotting.

Moberg_MacFarlingMeure_06

Figure 6. Phanerozoic CO2 vs temperature. Unlabeled x-axis is in millions of years before present.

Shocking!!! It yields a climate sensitivity of 1.28 °C.  Royer’s pH corrections were derived from CO2; so it shouldn’t be too much of a surprise that the correlation was so good (R² = 0.6701)… But the low climate sensitivity is truly “mind blowing”… /Sarc.

References

Berner, R.A. and Z. Kothavala, 2001. GEOCARB III: A Revised Model of Atmospheric CO2 over Phanerozoic Time, American Journal of Science, v.301, pp.182-204, February 2001.

Hadley Centre.  Data from Hadley Centre.  http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/download.html Data processed by www.woodfortrees.org

Illis, B. 2009. Searching the PaleoClimate Record for Estimated Correlations: Temperature, CO2 and Sea Level. Watts Up With That?

MacFarling Meure, C., D. Etheridge, C. Trudinger, P. Steele, R. Langenfelds, T. van Ommen, A. Smith, and J. Elkins (2006), Law Dome CO2, CH4 and N2O ice core records extended to 2000 years BP, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L14810, doi:10.1029/2006GL026152.

Moberg, A., D.M. Sonechkin, K. Holmgren, N.M. Datsenko and W. Karlén. 2005.

Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data. Nature, Vol. 433, No. 7026, pp. 613-617, 10 February 2005.

NOAA. Data from NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ Data processed by www.woodfortrees.org

Royer, D. L., R. A. Berner, I. P. Montanez, N. J. Tabor and D. J. Beerling. CO2 as a primary driver of Phanerozoic climate.  GSA Today, Vol. 14, No. 3. (2004), pp. 4-10

Featured image from Wikipedia.

The DIY Climate Sensitivity Toolkit

DIY Climate Sensitivity Toolkit

 

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Steve Ta

Duck or duct? Both – it’s made of duck cloth and can be used for ducting.

Paul Penrose

Actually it’s good for just about everything *except* ducting. For metal heat ducts, you want to use aluminum tape; it won’t degrade over time like duck tape.

Paul r

Only a goose would use duck tape 🙂

The Expulsive

It is duct tape, and proper duct tape is aluminium backed with an adhesive, as it was developed to wrap around ducts, such as heating ducts. That other stuff is a brand name and synthetic cloth tape is much more common in usage nowadays. Duct tape is made by many more companies that that Duck bunch

HotScot

We have Elephant tape amongst the other brands in the UK.

Carbon Bigfoot

Here is an example of both by the King of Duct Tape–Canada’s Red Green in his Handyman’s Corner of the Red Green Show as he illustrates the “Handyman’s Secret Weapon”—-you guessed it—-DUCT TAPE!!

Carbon Bigfoot
Richard Keen

Why settle for an episode? The Feature Film is here:

RonPE

BTW, it is “DIY”

David Gossman

Take a look at the three bullet table under figure 4 – either a rounding issue or a decimal point typo in the first and third bullet. I suspect the 0.1 should be 0.01 in each of those lines.

Mike Smith

If it moves but shouldn’t… apply duck/duct tape.
If it doesn’t move but should… apply WD-40 and hammer.

Tom Halla

Pretty good review of a contentious issue.

You make one assumption after another.
Leading to a wild guess of climate sensitivity
not worth more than flipping a coin.
We’ve got simple lab experiments
to suggest a doubling of CO2
might cause +1 degree C. warming.
What have you done,
other than mathematical
mass-turbation, to replace
that +1 degree C. estimate
with a better number?
I see no point in your article.
Because there is no point.
This is certainly not science — just
some assumptions plus
some speculation,
and a few jokes.
Always puzzling to see temperatures
in hundredths of a degree C.
— that makes absolutely no sense when the
majority of surface grids are wild guessed /
infilled because there were no thermometers !
If you have any duct tape left,
tell me where you live, so I can
come over and tape your fingers
together to prevent further typing!
Climate change blog:
http://www.elOnionBloggle.Blogspot.com

It is possible to get fairly precise observational estimates of the no feedbacks ECS. Using the IPCC values Monkton posted here previously, 1.16. Prof. Lindzen uses 1.2. It is utterly impossible to get ‘lab’ estimates of ECS including feedbacks. The two strongest are water vapor and clouds. Neither the oceans nor the skies can be represented in a lab experiment as you claim. Please reconsider your logic and methodology, because something is off.
OTOH, the estimates in this DIY post are likely too low. All the energy budget estimates come in with total ECS 1.5-1.8 (e.g. Lewis and Curry). IMO a ‘correct’ range because easily acheived via Bode feedback analysis with water vapor about half of what is implicit in CMIP5, and cloud feedback about neutral or maybe even a bit negative.

Richard M

I think the basic problem is that CO2 sensitivity is not a constant. It is temperature dependent. Think about Willis’ thunderstorm hypothesis where the negative feedback kicks in at a certain temperature. I also think this is true for CO2. At low temperatures you might get a positive feedback while at higher temperatures the feedback turns negative.
This would mean that any attempt to compute feedback would be limited to the temperature range of the period used. And, if a large range of temperature is used the feedback will average out and you end up with just the value for CO2.

HotScot

Can i ask you guys a really dumb question please?
How does a CO2 molecule know where to direct the energy it absorbs and redistributes.
Presumably it’s a roundish thing, so shouldn’t energy emitted be equal in all directions, and not all directed at heating up the earth surface?
Not that I believe for a moment CO2 has more of an effect on the planet’s atmospheric temperature, never mind the surface temperature whilst it’s only, what, 0.04% of all atmospheric gases, over and above water vapour which is considerably more common in the atmosphere. As I understand it, water vapour is around 90% of greenhouse gases, and CO2 around 3%.
Sorry, I know it’s not a science class.

Leo Smith

Oh dear.
Oh dear, oh dear.
A cross correlation between log(CO2) and temperature is established to reasonable levels of confidence (though causality is not thereby established ) certainly refuting the mythical ‘positive feedback’ and its NOT SCIENCE because it refutes what those paid to say otherwise say.
Oh dear, oh fear, oh dear….

HotScot

I’m not sure if the sarcasm was necessary.

mikewaite

Did you not appreciate the IPCC conclusions then Richard:
-If the amount of carbon dioxide were doubled instantaneously, with everything else remaining the same, the outgoing infrared radiation would be reduced by about 4 Wm-2. In other words, the radiative forcing corresponding to a doubling of the CO2 concentration would be 4 Wm-2. To counteract this imbalance, the temperature of the surface-troposphere system would have to increase by 1.2°C (with an accuracy of ±10%), in the absence of other changes. In reality, due to feedbacks, the response of the climate system is much more complex. It is believed that the overall effect of the feedbacks amplifies the temperature increase to 1.5 to 4.5°C. A significant part of this uncertainty range arises from our limited knowledge of clouds and their interactions with radiation. To appreciate the magnitude of this temperature increase, it should be compared with the global mean temperature difference of perhaps 5 or 6°C from the middle of the last Ice Age to the present interglacial.
IPCC TAR, 2001-
The figure of 1.2C ( without feedback) is close to the result arrived at by mathematical analysis in standard textbooks such as that by Goody and not a wild guess. The guessing is most likely to come in when feedback forcing mechanisms are incorporated, and there is no reason why people should not speculate – time and further observations will decide which hypotheses have the most truth.

Mike Waite
Global temperature data
are only available since 1979:
Climate proxy reconstructions and
surface “data” are not global.
The period from 1979 through 2017
includes almost all of the warming since
1940, and includes the 2000 to 2015 period
with a flat average temperature trend.
That short period may later
appear to have been cherry picking,
and not typical — we don’t know that now
— perhaps overemphasizing warming
by including the big early 1990s to early 2000s
“step up” in the average temperature,
or underemphasizing warming,
by including the 2000 to 2015 flat trend.
The percentage of the measured warming after 1940
caused by CO2 is somewhere between 0 and 100%.
No one knows much about exact causes of climate change.
Feedback(s) are unknown.
Most of what causes climate change is unknown,
unless you are a leftist fixated on evil CO2,
and willing to claim 4.5 billion years of natural
climate change suddenly stopped in the twentieth
century, with no explanation of how, or why, that
could have happened.
The worst case Climate Sensitivity to CO2
is +1 degree C., assuming 100% of the warming
in the weather satellite era was caused by CO2
— very unlikely, but that’s just a worst case guess.
There is no need to express climate sensitivity
to CO2 in tenths of a degree C.
— that’s false precision to make an educated
guess seem like something more.

Gary Pearse

Richard, another thing that has succumbed to this post normal Dark Age is a sense of humor. On a technical note, I think this wild method reinforces the evermore evident convergence of calculations on CO2 effect toward a point of modest significance at best. Moreover, I trust you are even more dismissive of the official estimates of effect based on an even worse foundation.
Also, the “strings” and dark mass and energy of post normal physics has opened the doors wide for anything-goes science. The egregious climateering science postulates of unmitigated disaster to descend on our grandchildren may well be traceable to these untended wide open doors that let sub 100 IQs hordes into a cornucopia of new “disciplines” – grubby squatters in the once grande halls of scholarship whose ‘rights’ dare journals to deиу publication of newspeak teknickel artickles.

Gary Pearse:
“I trust you are even more dismissive of the official estimates
of effect based on an even worse foundation.”
My reply:
The IPCC is a political organization,
not a science organization,
in my opinion.
Their “predictions”,
and “95% confidence level”
are a huge pile of steaming farm
animal digestive waste products,
and I state that with 105% confidence.

Frank

Richard Greene: Your simple laboratory experiments determine the absorption cross-sections for GHGs at various wavelengths. Those are used calculate the reduction in radiate cooling to caused by a doubling of CO2, about 3.7 W/m2. If one assumes that our climate system behaves like a gray body at 288 K with emissivity 0.61, then the amount of warming at equilibrium will be slightly more than 1 K.
However, our climate system does not behave like a simple gray body. During seasonal warming, (which is 3.5 K before anomalies are calculated), the planet emits an additional 2.2 W/m2/K of LWR, not the 3.3 W/m2/K expected for a simple gray body. See Figure 1 of Tsushima and Manabe, PNAS (2013).

The “simple laboratory experiments”
that I failed to explain, for some reason,
but you realized what I meant,
only tell us CO2 has the
potential to affect the temperature …
mainly at night in cool, dry areas,
net of unknown feedbacks.
How much of an effect no one knows.
So far there is no logical reason
to assume, or wild guess, anything
other than mild, harmless warming
from CO2.
So mild and harmless, that the era
of man made CO2 in the second half
of the 20th century, had a warming period,
that looked about the same
as the warming period
in the first half of the century —
so there is no evidence
in the surface temperature
data (which I don’t trust)
that CO2 has caused ANY warming.

Kristi Silber

David,
Thank you very much for the long and detailed answer. I misunderstood a couple things.
Correlations and regressions are different. Regressions are a test of cause and effect, correlations a simple association. So the math really does make a difference when testing the relationship between variables. There are also assumptions about the data that must be met for the tests to be valid.
Looks like a signal in your data coming from natural oscillation – it’s nice and clear in spots

Climate change is not about ambiguous anomalies, but can be boiled down to the value of a single metric. The IPCC’s self serving consensus puts this metric at about 0.8C +/- 0.4C per W/m^2 while the laws of physics put it somewhere between 0.2 and 0.3C per W/m^2 (slope of the SB curve). There’s no overlap between the IPCC’s value that was initially presumed to be large enough to justify its formation and what the laws of physics dictate it must be. The lack of overlap is why this is so incredibly controversial as the value, per the laws of physics, is too small to justify the continued existence of the IPCC and UNFCCC, thus owing to the conflict of interest at the IPCC, they will never accept the actual value.

HotScot

co2isnotevil
With apologies to all the engineers out there.
It seems to me the IPCC and it’s acolytes conform to the cumulative rounding up of what I was taught in secondary school engineering as the Factor of Safety.
Calculate the structural integrity of a bridge, add in a FoS of 30%, just in case, then hand the design to the boss who adds in another FoS of 30%, just in case. Give it to the client who adds in…then the contractors, then the workforce, materials suppliers………..etc.
Engineering has come a long way over the last generation or so and is aware of this phenomenon, I don’t think climate scientists are. Worse still, at the flick of a computer keyboard, models take on a new dimension, before being handed on.
Precautionary principle gone mad.

DWR54

David
I may be misreading it, but the description of Fig. 3 doesn’t seem to match the chart’s contents. Maybe it’s my browser!

len

dwr54, the Gray section of the chart is just EXTREMELY hard to see, it is there though if you look close enough

Gary Pearse

David, yeah but you did this without solving the Navier-Stokes fluid dynamics equations. What kind of geologist are you?
So, if we are going to read these calculations correctly, the sensitivity must be read backwards since CO2 lags temperatures in your graphs. This means a CO2 increase from preindustrial to 560ppm IS CAUSED BY a <1.5C temperature increase!

Rob

You cannot solve Navier-Stokes, if you can you are in line for a $1 million prize!

Bill Yarber

You have your driver/driven parameters reversed. Ice Core analysis from Greenland and Antarctica all show that CO2 changes lag Earth’s temperature changes by 200-800 years on way up and 400-2,000 years on the way down. Lagging parameters are NEVER drivers of a process! As Earth has warmed since the depth of the LIA, the oceans have warmed and outgassed CO2, driving up the atmospheric concentration from ~200 to ~400. But the warming came first! Considering how terrible life was with famine, disease and death, I’m extremely glad we live in a world that is 2C warmer than circa 1550!

John harmsworth

Bingo! And CO2 clearly has nothing to do with it, thus nothing to stop it cooling off again. But! The oceans do moderate whatever is causing atmospheric temperature changes.

John harmsworth

Or! The long period sweep of ocean currents contains episodes where surface temps are perhaps 1-1.5C higher on average, driving atmospheric temp rise and CO2 outgassing.
Or! Arctic ocean retains heat until the surface ice breaks down, causing Arctic temperatures to become more “marine typical” until the ocean gives up sufficient heat to begin a new cycle of expanding thickness and extent. If this is the case we would never have known it until relatively recently and we have passed the minimum around 2008.
I’m taking bets on #2.

beng135

Of course, this is assuming ALL warming is due to CO2 (like Roy Spencer’s model), which is implausible… Still, an interesting exercise.

beng135

OK, I see my above statement isn’t right. So I need to study this more. Again, thanks David M. Always enjoy your energy-posts.

David, thank you for your work. Is this summary correct?
ASSUMING (for the sake of argument) that ALL global warming is due to increasing atmospheric CO2 and NONE OF IT is due to natural causes, the estimated sensitivity of climate to increasing atmospheric CO2 (“TCS”) is about 1C/(2xCO2).
That statement is consistent with Christy and McNider (2017) and also seems to be consistent with your treatise. That statement also leads to the conclusion that this alleged man-made global warming is not dangerous to humanity or the environment. Furthermore, natural variation DOES play a major role in global temperature change, so this estimate of TCS should be an upper-bound estimate of that parameter.
All good so far, EXCEPT for this observation:
The velocity dCO2/dt changes ~contemporaneously with global temperature, and its integral CO2 also varies with global temperature but LAGS global temperature by about 9 months.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/from:1979/mean:12/derivative/plot/uah5/from:1979/scale:0.22/offset:0.14
I suggest that the correct relationship of temperature and CO2 is as follows:
[A] There is a “base increase” of atmospheric CO2 of about 2 ppm per year, generally assumed to be from man-made causes.
[B] There is a clear signal on top of [A] that the velocity dCO2/dt changes ~contemporaneously with global temperature, and its integral CO2 also varies with global temperature but LAGS global temperature by about 9 months.
[C] The sensitivity of CO2 to temperature must be greater than the sensitivity of temperature to CO2, or the clear signal described in [B] would not exist; also, the magnitudes of both sensitivities are small and not dangerous to humanity or the environment..
Best regards, Allan

John harmsworth

You guys are probably too smart for me so correct me wherever I have erred, please.
If CO2 is upwardly sensitive to temperature-and temperature is upwardly sensitive to CO2, I think it really is way, way worse than we thought!

John harmsworth

Can the chicken cook the egg it hatched from?

HotScot

Allan
Sorry, a really dumb question.
I assume the 2ppm annual CO2 contribution to the atmosphere from man is cumulative.
So how long does a CO2 molecule hang about in the atmosphere. Is it a permanent fixture, or is it absorbed/converted/die off?
I have read it hangs about in the atmosphere for 5 years/50 years/100 Years, pick any one from three, I have no idea.
I’m now taking a slightly philosophic approach to the subject. Around the time CO2 was at it’s lowest, over the past several thousand years, it having been accidentally, and naturally sequestered, humankind happened along, alarmingly coincedentally, and discovered fire.
Since then, CO2 has risen from dangerously low levels, to levels more consistent with the planet’s survival.
An utterly amazing coincidence one can only put down to one of two things – an incredible coincidence, or divine intervention.
I’m not religious, but coincidence under these circumstances seems a step too far.
Perhaps we are being influenced, somehow, to put the brakes on CO2 production, early, assuming it is a problem, which I understand it might become over 6,000 ppm. So, very early then.
Just a thought, no scientific basis whatsoever implied. And I think I need to drain my last beer and toddle off to bed. Long day.

Kristi Silber

HotScot – Some of the CO2 maybe cycled out of the atmosphere within 5 years, some may stay up there for 200. There is no set time a particular molecule is up there, and an average or half-life is very hard to demonstrate or calculate. It doesn’t break down like methane and other trace gases. Some is absorbed by the oceans or taken up by photosynthesis, but that’s going on at the same time the GHGs are rising – the natural sinks can’t keep up. Since the system isn’t anywhere near equilibrium, that makes it all the harder to figure out the length of time carbon stays in the atmosphere.
During each of the last 2 years the CO2 has risen 3 ppm.

HotScot

Kristi
Blimey! It’s even more confusing than I thought. 😁

Thank you David for your comments on increasing atmospheric CO2. Let us assume for clarity and simplicity that your comments, effectively endorsing the Mass Balance Argument, are correct.
However David you have not responded to my primary question, repeated below.
Some more background info:
1. Let us assume that atmospheric CO2 started to accelerate strongly after about (“~”) 1940, and continues to accelerate today, due to increasing fossil fuel combustion. .
2. However, global temperature declined from ~1940 to ~1977, then increased ~1977 to ~1997, and has remained ~flat since about then, with some major El Nino spikes that have mostly or completely reversed.
So there is a correlation of increasing CO2 with global temperature that is negative, positive and near-zero – certainly NOT at all convincing that CO2 plays a significant role in driving global temperature.
Then there is this “elephant in the room” that nobody wants to discuss, that CO2 LAGS global temperature at all measured time scales, from ~~800 years in the ice core record to ~9 months in the modern data record.
The key relationship in modern data is that dCO2/dt changes ~contemporaneously with global temperature, and its integral CO2 (delta CO2 above the “base CO2 increase” of ~2ppm/year) lags temperature by ~9 months. Therefore I conclude that temperature drives CO2 more than CO2 drives temperature, and both magnitudes are quite small and not dangerous.
I wrote the paper that reached this conclusion ten years ago (January 2008) on Joe d Áleo’s icecap.us. The initial response is that I was just wrong – that it was “spurious correlation – which was false nonsense. Then somebody actually checked the math and deemed it correct, but because they KNEW that CO2 was the primary driver of global temperature then it MUST BE a feedback effect (more false nonsense).
Since then, the main response has been to ignore this huge inconsistency in the global warming mantra, because it disproves the hypothesis that dangerous global warming will result from increasing atmospheric CO2. In the last ten-years, tens of trillions of dollars of scarce global resources have been squandered on false global warming alarmism, and millions of lives have been sacrificed due to misallocation of these resources.
Properly deployed, these tens of trillions of dollars could have:
– put clean water and sanitation systems into every village in the world, saving the lives of about 2 million under-five kids PER YEAR;
– reduced or even eradicated malaria – also a killer of millions of infants and children;
– gone a long way to eliminating world hunger.
Repeating what I wrote above:
____________________________________________________
All good so far, EXCEPT for this observation:
The velocity dCO2/dt changes ~contemporaneously with global temperature, and its integral CO2 also varies with global temperature but LAGS global temperature by about 9 months.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/from:1979/mean:12/derivative/plot/uah5/from:1979/scale:0.22/offset:0.14
I suggest that the correct relationship of temperature and CO2 is as follows:
[A] There is a “base increase” of atmospheric CO2 of about 2 ppm per year, generally assumed to be from man-made causes.
[B] There is a clear signal on top of [A] that the velocity dCO2/dt changes ~contemporaneously with global temperature, and its integral CO2 also varies with global temperature but LAGS global temperature by about 9 months.
[C] The sensitivity of CO2 to temperature must be greater than the sensitivity of temperature to CO2, or the clear signal described in [B] would not exist; also, the magnitudes of both sensitivities are small and not dangerous to humanity or the environment..
Best regards, Allan

HotScot

Much obliged Allan, although it will take me some time to digest this. However, I am aware that the temperature/CO2 relationship has been that CO2 increase follows temperature increase. What I wasn’t aware of was that the time lag has gone from 800 years to 9 months. Any suggestions as to why the time lag has reduced?
I also note that from Mona Lau (sp) graphs of increasing atmospheric CO2, the gradient seems fairly steady (although graphs are largely a mystery to me) for many years, yet we have the ‘pause in temperature rise. In fact, it appears to me, what with el ninio and la ninia, temperatures are all over the place and rising atmospheric CO2 seems the most cosistent signal amongst a lot of seemingly random temperature swings. And i realise that el ninio/last ninio are anomalies (is that the right term) and to gain a consistent temperature pattern one must allow for their fluctuations, but that seems to me to be guessing at what earths average temperature would be if they weren’t there, but they are, and they form a constituent parts of the planet’s development. So I’m at a loss as to why they are excluded (possibly not in the short term, but certainly in the long term) although I also understand that climate study is in its infancy, or at least in my opinion it is, and that emerging technology simply serves to demonstrate, with alarming regularity, more of what we don’t know, than what we do know.
And therein possibly lies the crux of my scepticism, in that I believe it incredibly arrogant of a man like Michael Mann to terrify the world with a tiny piece of evidence, then set about litigation with anyone that dares contradict him. In my experience, when someone comes out swinging punches, they have something to hide.
Finally, unfortunately, or perhaps fortunately, I find sceptics a generally positive community. We have faith in the future. And without positive people, America might not have ever been found; we might not have split the atom; flown faster than sound; developed email or invented the dishwasher. I mean, what are we scared of, getting our hands wet?
Nothing man has done on this planet, has been accomplished without endeavour and optimism. Lots of mistakes along the way, but we live in the most peaceful time in mans existence. You and I are doing something right, and all I see in the media, governments, and science, is the desire to stifle mans progression with the allure of peaceful socialism, of which, there is no such thing.
Ranting and waffling now. Sorry, you don’t deserve this. Long shift in a new job, so off to bed.
Thanks as ever for your explanations and patience.

HI Hotscot
You wrote:
“What I wasn’t aware of was that the time lag has gone from 800 years to 9 months. Any suggestions as to why the time lag has reduced?”
Not reduced – they are much different cycle periods (time durations) with corresponding different time lags.
One or more smaller cycles can exist within a larger cycle, or as Ezekiel said, “a wheel within a wheel”. 🙂
Best, Allan
_________________________
Here is a blast from the past on the same subject:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/27/the-unbearable-complexity-of-climate-2/#comment-274521
Allan M R MacRae (01:31:52) :
Hi tallbloke (00:03:27) :
See the 15fps AIRS data animation of global CO2 at
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003500/a003562/carbonDioxideSequence2002_2008_at15fps.mp4
It is difficult to see the impact of humanity in this impressive display of nature’s power.
Still, annual CO2 concentration keeps increasing at ~1.5ppm/year – even as CO2 fluctuates by up to 16ppm/year in its natural seasonal sawtooth pattern. This 1.5ppm/year could be a manmade component (or not).
I pointed out two years ago that that global CO2 lags temperature by about 9 months in a cycle time of ~3-6 years.
We also know that CO2 lags temperature by ~800 years in a cycle time of ~100,000 years
There may be other intermediate cycles as well – Ernst Beck postulates one.
A fine puzzle for someone to sort out.
Veizer and Shaviv may have already done so.
Best wishes to all for the Holidays!

Bryan A

Wooded carbon sinks might have a chance of keeping up IF they weren’t constantly depleted for biofuels or for clearing at space to grow corn and Palm oil to make ethanol and other biofuels

Bruce Cobb

Hey, maybe Mikey can fix his broken hockey stick with duct tape. Worth a shot.

rjwooll

Has a similar analysis been done looking at atmospheric co2 concentration vs co2 emissions? This might help show the strength of the natural mechanisms for co2 absorption.

jackson

You do data analysis like an unblinded experimenter.
Of course almost all data analysis is done that way.
Climate science seems to have become a bunch of unblinded experiments run by people pushing a political agenda. They are saving the world.
I don’t think that aspect of the situation gets as much respect as it deserves.

jackson
making money while claiming to be saving the world.
“climate science” is 99% politics and 1% science.
The “science” adds up to:
‘CO2 might cause some
harmless warming at night
in cool, dry areas.’
Everything else is alarmism to scare and control people,
led by virtue-signalling politicians, and the
government bureaucrats with science degrees
they hire to predict a climate crisis every year
… and then cash their goobermint paychecks.

peanut gallery

Silence is golden
Duct Tape is silver.
If I remember correctly, not too long ago a substitute teacher was fired for following that adage.

actuator

Reminds me of my Dad’s admonishment to my brothers and me in the early 50’s: “Children should be seen and not heard”. Times have changed.

HotScot

Amen to that.
A world ruled by brats.
Just what we need, but then I guess our parents said the same thing at our time of life.

Radical Rodent

Of course, this does ignore the possibility that CO2 could have nothing whatsoever with global temperatures. If the rise to the mediæval warm period was due to natural variation, and the drop into the little ice age was due to natural variation, then why cannot today’s temperatures, which are still conveniently between those two “extremes” of natural variation, also be considered natural variation?

Thomas Homer

[ For the sake of this exercise, I am going to assume that the “greenhouse” warming effect of CO2 is logarithmic. While this is not necessarily a safe assumption, it’s a good bet that it is a diminishing returns function ]
Fair enough to use it in your calculations. However, if it’s a ‘diminishing returns function’, this means that if we were to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, the ‘forcing’ per CO2 molecule goes up. What is the upper bound for forcing per CO2 molecule? IOW, at what concentration does CO2 forcing per molecule max out?

“Why is the correlation so bad below 285 ppm? Well, that’s the data from the lower resolution DSS core. “
The real problem is seen in Fig 3 – they don’t correlate. The reason is simple. You are asking how much temperature changes when CO2 changes. But you have a dataset, until 1850, where CO2 doesn’t change. So you can’t get a correlation. Temperature is changing, and CO2 is not. So T is changing for some other reason.
That doesn’t mean that temperature won’t change if CO2 changes. It just means you are looking in the wrong place. If you now come to Fig 1, the basis for the regression slope is entirely the last part of the data, post 1850, when CO2 rises above 285 ppm. And what really determines the slope is the period when the ppm rises above 310ppm, which is about 1950.
“Then it’s probably worse than you will believe. 1.23 °C is very close to the IPCC TAR estimate of 1.2 °C sans feedback mechanisms.”
The discussion here is the usual muddle of equilibrium and transient sensitivity. The slope from Figs 1 or 2 is neither. TCR would be roughly approximated if you used the slope post-1950. But that IPCC TAR estimate of 1.2, no feedback, is equilibrium sensitivity. You can’t compare a 1.23 TCR (kinda) and 1.2 ECS and say – no feedback.
“This would suggest that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are only responsible for 36% of the warming since 1979.”
No. This is, would you believe, circular reasoning. You have derived the slope from a fit to the data, T vs CO2. And then you deduce that the fitted curve is responsible for only 36%. You use no other knowledge of what it should be. In Fig 2, it is just the observation that the slope of the right part of the graph is less than the whole.
And that shows up the weakness of these datasets for the purpose. The slope relies almost entirely on the last 50 years or so when CO2 is changing. But that is when the proxy-based temperature is weakest. We know that because, per Fig 3, there is no modern rise. But we know there is. We have thermometer records, which are far superior to proxy, especially when proxies are fading out post 1950, either for lack of resolution, or they are entering the period necessarily reserved for calibration.

Tom Halla

NS, the datasets on temperature are so stepped on most of the effect is due to the “corrections”.

You can perfectly well do that calculation without corrections if you want. It makes almost no difference.
UAH, RSS, GISS whatever – they all show a modern rise.

Tom Halla

My issue is the elimination of the instrumental records of the 1930 era warm period, and the 1945-1975 cooling trend. That sort of variability matters when doing correlation. Certainly it has warmed since 1975, but how much relative to 1938?

MrZ

Hi Nick!
I have now some progress on the GHCND/GHCNM analyze.
Turns out GHCND “Daily raw” and GHCNM “Monthly raw” does NOT sum up.
Calculating ghcnm.tmax.v3.3.0.YYYYMMDD.qcu.dat “50194102000YYYYTMAX” records and comparing
with ASN00001007.dly “ASN00001007YYYYMMTMAX” records I get more or less identical TMAX values (i.e. my summarization rules work). However for this station all daily data records newer than 1995 are omitted in the “Monthly raw” file even though they exist.
I tested the following random pairs
“AU000005010” – “60311012000”
“SWM00002080” – “64502080000”
“USC00011084” – “42500011084”
“AGM00060355” – “10160355000”
What i find is a mix of unused/skipped perfectly valid daily data plus deviation between reported “Monthly raw” and calculated (from daily) raw.
It looks as if deviation depends on dsflag (data source). Different sources obviously use different algorithms.
Selected years with “random” treatment are consolidated as is, into one common “Monthly raw” file. This file is then processed with adjustments generating the qca files. Then finally the qca files are used to generate the adjusted TAVG files. Funny the TAVG files have more stations and records than the TMIN/TMAX files.
To me this does not look as a very accurate…
Have you done any comparisons on this level yourself?

“Turns out GHCND “Daily raw” and GHCNM “Monthly raw” does NOT sum up.”
Not surprising. They aren’t as related as you think. GHCND is relatively new – last decade or so. GHCNM is older; dates from big project around 1992. People collected whatever monthly records they could get and verify. They often didn’t have daily records attached. Then it was continued by NOAA based on monthly CLIMAT files submitted by met organisations. And that is what is used by the major indices. The monthly records were never assembled by GHCN adding up daily values.
You’ll need to scrutinise carefully to see if the stations are even the same. A lot of effort went into sorting out which of various records apparently representing some town or location was accepted for GHCN V3. V2 did not resolve the question, and supplied duplicates. GHCND has tried harder to be comprehensive and include everything, but it may not always match.
So you can’t expect exact correspondence, point by point. However, I doubt if any of that matters when you put together a global average.

MrZ

Nick,
Maybe +/- temperature deviations does not contribute that much. I am more concerned with the skipped years.
On the cross-mapping it is difficult indeed. I used 3 iterations:
1. WMOID
2. Name + lat/long
3. Lat/long
The fourth was going to be first OK monthly raw vs calculated raw + lat/long 😎
I have to come up with something smarter (like rounded values and series) or stick with the stations I find with steps 1 to 3.
Can I ask how you treat stations with long series with few or no measurements during your selected anomaly base period?

MrZ,
“Can I ask how you treat stations with long series with few or no measurements during your selected anomaly base period?”
This is the essential feature of the least squares that I (and now BEST) use. The anomalies are first formed with no base period. A linear statistical model which includes both station offsets and a global time series is used. The requirement that the global average has time average zero over 1961-90 is then enforced as a single constraint. It is not required for individual sites.
There is an example here which demonstrates some of the issues involved.

MrZ

Thanks Nick,
Your math is on another level than mine… 😎
Would an acceptable alternative be to grid the stations? I can than compare between GHCND and GHCNM using positions rather than specific stations.
1. Grid cells are formed as km away from Long/Lat 0.0.
2. A group of stations would form a monthly anomaly trend for the grid cell they’re in and missing measurements could simply be skipped, as they are instead covered by step 3.
3. For cells and years/months with missing data I would take the average from surrounding cells. This is accomplished by itterating across larger and larger grid cells until hit. Compare plotting the cells with water color and bleeding between the cells.
This process should bring me very close to where you are. When I compared USHCN processing like above with NOAA results it looks more or less identical.

Frank

The scatter in the temperature data while CO2 was constant is extremely useful: It quantifies natural variability in climate at constant CO2. It would better define a 95% ci for the slope – if David had bother to calculate one. Just using your eye, it’s easy to see that this confidence interval is sizable.

Bruce of Newcastle

I got about 0.7 C for 2XCO2 using 250 years of HadCET data. Methodology is in the description below the graph. The two biggest variables are the cyclic AMO and the Sun. CO2e comes in a distant third.
HadCET is a pretty clean dataset – difficult for Hadley to justify adjusting the historic data. Recent years may have been affected by UHIE issues as urbanisation creeps closer to the baseline stations.

Yogi Bear

Northern hemisphere warming since 1979
AMO driven: >50%.

Ill Tempered Klavier

If, as it appears, carbon dioxide changes lag temperature changes during both long and short time periods then either carbon dioxide is and effect not a cause or it has endochronic properties far greater than those attributed to resublimated thiotimoline.

Frank

David: interesting work. May have some technical problems. The is now layer that fell in exactly 2000 years ago did not trap a sample of atmosphere as it existed exactly 2000 years ago. Air diffuses between the particles of snow for many years after snow fell 2000 years ago, before the 2000 years ago snow becomes ice with air bubbles cut off from the atmosphere. At Vostok (where accumulation is slow), 2000 year old ice contains roughly 1000 year old atmosphere. At faster accumulating sites, the lag is less. Today, climate scientist refer to an ice date and a CO2 date for for each layer. Did you use the right dating system for this project, the CO2 date?

Frank

David: It can be useful to convert CO2 into log2(CO2). 256 ppm becomes 8.00. 512 ppm becomes 9.00. The difference is 1.00 in log2 units – 1.00 doubling. With Temp on the y-axis and log2(CO2) on the X-axis, the slope is K/doubling..
The other thing you slope need is a confidence interval, usually 95%. If your slope were 1.3 +/- 0.5 K/doubling, it wouldn’t be inconsistent with the IPCC’s value of 1.8 +/- ? For the IPCC models. Technically, you need to worry about autocorrelation in the temperature data.

Frank

David: Continuing on confidence interval. The scatter in the temperature data for CO2 at pre-industrial levels of CO2 is due to natural variability in climate at constant CO2. This scatter widens the confidence interval in your slope – as it should. To properly account for natural variability, you MUST include a confidence interval. Your conclusion that 30% of warming needs to be 30 +/- X% and X might turn out to be 100%.

Frank

If X could be 90%, you haven’t invalidated the IPCCs claim that 100% of warming is likely due to man

Gaffer tape FTW.

Mathew Burns

I’ve got a climate sensitivity toolkit, it’s called the laws of physics: and they say CO2 has zero impact on climate, because when the calculations are done correctly, so the answers match the International Standard Atmosphere, CO2 isn’t even mentioned; much less calculated as influencing temperature.

“I may not be able to fix things around the house, but it occurred to me that if the climate (e.g. average surface temperature of the Earth) is sensitive to atmospheric CO2, there ought to be a simple DIY way to demonstrate it. So, I broke out two of my favorite data sets: Moberg et al., 2005 (a non-hockey stick 2,000 year northern hemisphere climate reconstruction) and MacFarling-Meure et al., 2006 (a fairly high resolution CO2 record from the Law Dome, Antarctica ice cores).”
1. Wrong from the start. You should not start with your favorite datasets. And if you DO, you had better
check all the other datasets. WHY? because you want to question your own beliefs. In this
case, your belief that these datasets are somehow special. It will also let you estimate your structural
uncertainty.
2. You wont get sensitivity by looking at only c02.
A little refresher in basic AGW theory.
1. The temperature of the planet ( any planet ) is a function of the External forcing.
That’s the sun.
2. This temperature can be increased by the presence of
GHGS.. that’s water, c02 , methane, black carbon, etc. secondary effects
3. This temperature can also be increased (or desceased) by changes in albedo, land use,
and aerosols.
So, you need to have ALL THE FORCINGS.
You can find them all online. CMIP experiments have files for the all the forcings we know.
It does not have forcing for things we can only speculate about. ya, needs to has numbers.
Once you have all the forcings, you can estimate the climate sensitivity. ya need to do this first.
That is a factor that allows you to calculate change in temperature from ALL the changes in Watts.
Once you have that, then you can estimate TCR and ECS.

Mathew Burns

More fake pseudo-science from Mosher, the man who was mocked to his face by the person releasing the Climategate emails, saying to the moronic Mosher ”Still believe it’s real?”
There are no ”beliefs” in actual hard sciences regarding temperatures of gases. The International Standard Atmosphere’s fundamental matter-energy relationships are calculated, and that’s how it’s done. Only a non scientific looper thinks his “beliefs” matter in calculating the temperature of the Atmosphere.

Tony

What utter nonsense! Try taking data over the last 10,000 years! You get a NEGATIVE sensitivity to CO2.