A snow drought doesn’t just make for a bad ski season. If a snow deficit continues into late winter and spring, it can spell trouble for water managers and communities that depend on melt water to fill reservoirs. In parts of the Rocky Mountains, the early and mid-winter of 2017-2018 failed to deliver much snow.
These maps show late January snow cover in a typical year (2016) and in the middle of the recent snow-drought (2018). The maps were made from observations collected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite. Dark blue areas have the most snow cover (100 percent); lighter blue areas have progressively less snow cover. Gray areas show where satellites could not collect data due to cloud cover.
As of February 1, 2018, snowpack in the Southern Rockies was below normal, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration. The Southern Rockies spread across southern Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico, and Colorado—the location of the highest peaks in the range.
News reports from Colorado noted that the snowpack was “on track to be one of the lowest in recent history.” The snowpack across the entire state was 60 percent of normal. Such shortages are a concern, given that people in Colorado and states to the west use the snowmelt from this part of the Rockies for drinking and farming.
The Northern Rockies fared better, with above-average snowpack in parts of Wyoming and Montana, according to the NOAA report. The snowpack in the Central Rockies hovered near or just-below normal.
Experts say there is still time for improvement. Snowpack in the Southern Rockies tends to come from a few big storms, in contrast to more frequent snowfalls to the north. Experts will know more in springtime, when NASA’s Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) resumes annual flights that use lidar to measure the snow. Data from ASO—characterizing everything from snow depth, snow water equivalent, and albedo—are an important guidance tool for water managers. The ASO team plans to survey California in March, and then head east for a survey over Colorado.
-
References and Related Reading
- The Denver Post (2018, February 7) Despite burst of January snow, Colorado mountain snowpack stays grim—with record low levels at some sites. Accessed February 22, 2018.
- The Durango Herald (2018, January 20) Can the low snowpack in Southwest Colorado rebound? Accessed February 22, 2018.
- NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (2018, January) National Snow & Ice – January 2018.Accessed February 22, 2018.
- Outside (2018, January 5) This Is Literally the West’s Worst Winter in 60 Years. Accessed February 22, 2018.
NASA Earth Observatory images by Joshua Stevens, using MODIS snow cover data from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Story by Kathryn Hansen.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Depth is more important than “cover” when it comes snow melt time. Cover can change rapidly here in the Rockies if it is not very deep.
Snow droughts begin and end with a snowstorm.
And yet last year people were complaining about too much snow in the Rocky Mountain region. Winter is not even close to over, so snow in Rocky Mountains can still be above average, or a have a drawn out rainy spring. Either way people will complain and blame humans for whatever happens.
Too many clouds! [Send In The Clowns.]
Hahahahaha
Brad
I had the rare experience of skiing at Alta in the 1960s when only about 20% of the skiers could handle the deep stuff. Wrote about Alta and Sun Valley–if interested you could Google Bob Hoye Skiing at Alta. It should come up.
🙂
Prepare yourselves Front Range people. You number is coming up next.
I live on the front range in Arvada, just outside of Denver. We’re fixin to get another 2-4 inches tonight, after we just got 4-5 inches yesterday, and 6 earlier in the week. It’s been fun watching all the nitwits from southern states try to maneuver up small hills with front wheel drive hondas.
Anyway, glad to see a bunch of folks on here from out this way.
I’ll say this regarding snowpack: I’m not impressed with the alarmism from the powers that be. This is life in the Rockies. March and April are the heaviest months for precipitation typically, and this past week has been pretty good on the mountains. I’m not concerned. What I am concerned about is government officials operating in bad faith. I say that because the Denver Metro water budget and resource management, according to the Northern Conservation Water District based in Berthoud, Colorado, bases their management plan off the last UN CAGW crapola. I was in the meeting two seasons ago and brought up a very glaring piece of information: According to all the projections, they admitted that it was completely unknown how the precipitation amounts would vary annually moving through the next century onwards. (mind you, Denver is increasing their water pricing in a ten year step). Also, in case anyone was not aware only 3% of the entire state of Colorado water budget is dedicated to domestic/residential water usage, both interior and exterior along the front range cities (it may even have been all Colorado domestic water use but I can’t remember). Now, as someone who cares about conservation, I look at my boss who owned the company and asked “why the hell is Denver so draconian about their water when its a drop in the bucket for total water usage?!” Even he, who lives in Boulder and is a total commie couldn’t believe it. Municipal is gaining steady, trying harder to get a bigger piece from AG, which by the way has the most efficient watering methods.
So I asked the lady, “Does this not strike you as irresponsible?”
She had no idea what to say about that. Then some arrogant fella got up and made some snide comment about CAGW and scoffed…I almost got into it with him but it was certainly not appropriate. Typical Boulderites and modern think they know-it-all progressives. Anyway, I find it very irritating to see these people making decisions that affect everyone, especially poor and middle class, based on projections that even admit they can’t project accurately…and then on top of it parade around like they are saviors or something. The cognitive dissonance that abounds in this era of a saturation of information makes me think the Dark Ages pale in comparison to the ignorance of today. At least they had an excuse.
So, my point, if I had one…I just don’t see this as an issue. We got dumped on early last year in the mountains and we’ll likely get dumped on again this March and April. The other point is that the people in charge out here are a sorry lot of religionists.
or pardon..Socialist. I get them confused. Either way he lives in Boulder and buys into all the public radio propaganda that the left heralds
Why are the “experts” suggesting we need to wait for spring and ASO?
The snow water equivalent data is readily available.
https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/reports/UpdateReport.html?report=Upper+Colorado+River+Basin
My quick scroll through it tells me things look pretty normal.
But then I am not an expert.
There’s more. That healthy looking upper basin feeds Lakes Powell and Mead.:
Lake Powell up 22.36 ft above last year;
Inflows for WY 2018 are 104.63% of WY 2017;
Rivers feeding Lake Powell are running at 144.87% of the Feb 23rd avg.
Conclusion: Don’t worry, be happy.
I know from my friends in Summit County, Colorado that the last three weeks have delivered massive amounts of snow cover. This all happened after the events described in the above article, which only covers up to Feb. 1st. There is usually lots of snowfall between Feb. 1st. and April 30th. in the Rockies.
The southwest is definitely hurting this season. We’ve had a couple recent storms that have helped. Let’s hope for a few more before the spring thaw. This isn’t unusual, but it means we need to think about conserving water more this year.
For up-to-date snowpack information and interactive map from U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS):
https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/webmap/#version=80.1&elements=&networks=!&states=!&counties=!&hucs=&minElevation=&maxElevation=&elementSelectType=all&activeOnly=true&activeForecastPointsOnly=true&hucLabels=false&hucParameterLabels=false&stationLabels=&overlays=&hucOverlays=&mode=data&openSections=dataElement,parameter,date,basin,elements&controlsOpen=true&popup=&popupMulti=&base=esriNgwm&displayType=basinstation&basinType=6&dataElement=WTEQ¶meter=PCTMED&frequency=DAILY&duration=I&customDuration=&dayPart=E&year=2018&month=2&day=22&monthPart=E&forecastPubMonth=2&forecastPubDay=1&forecastExceedance=50&seqColor=1&divColor=3&scaleType=D&scaleMin=&scaleMax=&referencePeriodType=POR&referenceBegin=1991&referenceEnd=2016&minimumYears=20&hucAssociations=true&lat=41.084&lon=-110.146&zoom=5.5
Despite lower snowpack (so far) this season, many reservoirs in the Southwest are at 100% or more of the 1981–2010 average, but Arizona, New Mexico,and southern Utah and Nevada have low reservoirs. See snowpack and reservoirs at NRCS website here:
https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/snow_map.html
Interactive map of reservoirs and basins here:
https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/webmap/#version=80.1&elements=W,R&networks=!&states=!&counties=!&hucs=&minElevation=&maxElevation=&elementSelectType=all&activeOnly=true&activeForecastPointsOnly=false&hucLabels=false&hucParameterLabels=false&stationLabels=&overlays=&hucOverlays=&mode=data&openSections=dataElement,parameter,date,basin,elements,location,networks&controlsOpen=true&popup=&popupMulti=&base=esriNgwm&displayType=basinstation&basinType=6&dataElement=RESC¶meter=PCTAVG&frequency=MONTHLY&duration=I&customDuration=&dayPart=E&year=2018&month=1&day=22&monthPart=E&forecastPubMonth=2&forecastPubDay=1&forecastExceedance=50&seqColor=1&divColor=3&scaleType=D&scaleMin=&scaleMax=&referencePeriodType=POR&referenceBegin=1981&referenceEnd=2010&minimumYears=20&hucAssociations=true&lat=38.791&lon=-101.201&zoom=5.0
Here is a shortened version of that url https://goo.gl/KWyiFM
“If a snow deficit continues…” Well it hasn’t continued and it looks like snow will be in the forecast for the next several weeks, if not the next month.
Whenever you see ‘if this tend continues’ in any story, you can bet that the trend, whatever it is, is about to end.
Yah our weather casters often invoke the gore effect and look silly.
We are in a weak La Nina…don’t plan a ski trip south of I-70…nothing new here.
I’m here in the far eastern part of Oregon thinking about 1996. We could be sitting here waiting for a late snowmagedon. What does one month difference make? Very little. If we get this late Winter snow deluge followed by below melt temperatures, followed by an extended Pineapple Express, Portland will have to sandbag itself and Tillamook County will need to evacuate cows.
Writing from Denver, looks like according to the most recent SNOTEL we’re up to 73% of normal, and it appears more is coming in. Northern Colorado better than Southern by quite a bit.
Tell the Blackfeethttp://flatheadbeacon.com/2018/02/23/ferocious-blizzard-hammers-blackfeet-reservation/
http://flatheadbeacon.com/2018/02/23/ferocious-blizzard-hammers-blackfeet-reservation/
Here’s a great resource for snow fall totals in the Western US: https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/
Unfortunately, we have had no significant snowfalls here this year I live in the Rockies (at 8600 ft) and have not been able to even think about using my Nordic skis this year . . . Yet
Denver Water’s Water Watch Report is showing ~100% snowpack for both the South Platte and Colorado River watersheds. Reservoirs levels are higher than normal thanks to a few very wet years.
here it is 4 days later.. we just got hit by a pretty heavy snow storm. We heard all the stories about not enough snow in the mtns. Its FEB, too soon to call anything a drought. I get so sick of the sky is falling forecasts every year only to have normal to record drops come further into the winter months.
Last year the Utah snowpack was 120 to 150% above normal, and the spring and summer precipitation was near record highs.
At the time, the local experts explained that it was a cyclical thing.
“They seem to be coming every five to seven years, these kinds of large snowpacks,” said Randy Julander with the Natural Resources Conservation Service. “It’s been since 2011, previously was 2005, before that was ’97.”: