Arctic poised to unleash another massive cold outbreak for Eastern US

Paul Dorian sends word that there’s a change brewing in the Arctic that may result in a massive and extended cold outbreak for the Northern hemisphere, much like what we saw in late December and early January when record breaking cold swamped the eastern USA. He writes:

Overview

We are now experiencing warmer-than-normal weather conditions in the eastern US and there will be mild spells right into the first week of February, but the signs are increasing for a return to a cold pattern next month and it may very well last for an extended period of time.  The MJO is a tropical disturbance that propagates around the global tropics and it will be transitioning into “phases” during the month of February that are conducive to colder-than-normal weather in the eastern US.  In addition, stratospheric warming will unfold over the next week or so in the polar region of the Northern Hemisphere and this can set off a chain of events in the atmosphere that ultimately results in colder-than-normal weather for the eastern US.  There are other signals as well that support the notion of a return to cold in the eastern US and it very well could stick around for awhile.

00Z Euro forecast of the MJO index from today (lower arrow) to February 6th (upper arrow) which is displayed on a day-to-day basis by the green line.

Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)

The MJO is a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward around the global tropics with a cycle on the order of 30-60 days. It is a large-scale coupling between atmospheric circulation and tropical deep convection (thunderstorms). The MJO not only has wide ranging impacts on the patterns of precipitation, surface temperatures, and atmospheric circulation in the tropics, but also influences precipitation and temperature patterns across the globe.  Specifically, one significant impact of the MJO over the U.S. during the northern hemisphere winter is an increase in the frequency and intensity of cold air outbreaks across the central and eastern US.

Specifically, one significant impact of the MJO over the U.S. during the northern hemisphere winter is an increase in the frequency and intensity of cold air outbreaks across the central and eastern US.

This time of year, phases 5, 6 and 7 of the MJO index signal warmer-than-normal temperatures in the central and eastern U.S., but beyond that time, the MJO is likely to propagate into phases 8, 1 and 2 which usually are correlated with colder-than-normal weather in the central and eastern US during this time of year. In fact, the MJO index is forecasted to increase in amplitude when it enters phase 7 (i.e., move farther away from the inner circle), and an increase in amplitude may actually further influence the overall pattern around here in February.

Stratospheric Warming

Another way to monitor the potential for Arctic air outbreaks in the eastern U.S. is to follow what is happening in the stratosphere over the polar region of the Northern Hemisphere. Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are large, rapid temperature rises in the winter polar stratosphere and they can set off a chain of events in the atmosphere that ultimately lead to Arctic air outbreaks from northern Canada into the central and eastern U.S. Indeed, there is strong evidence for stratospheric warming to take place in the Northern Hemisphere over the next five-to-ten days (top) and this often increases the chances for colder-than-normal air masses to drop southward from high latitudes and into the middle latitudes.

10 mb temperatures have spiked in recent days (arrow) across the northern latitudes (90N to 65N); map courtesy NOAA

Other supporting signals for February cold

Two other supporting signals for cold weather in the eastern US following this warmer-than-normal stretch include the outlook of Arctic Oscillation (AO) index and the current snow cover extent across the Northern Hemisphere.

Snow cover (shown in white) is currently quite extensive across the Northern Hemisphere.

Read his entire forecast here at Vencore Weather. Well worth your time.

Meanwhile from WeatherBell:

Here is the beginning of the outbreak:

Joe Bastardi weighs in…

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Latitude

I absolutely hate winter………..

Doug

Beautiful Snow
John Whitaker Watson (1824–1890)
O THE SNOW, the beautiful snow,
Filling the sky and the earth below!
Over the house-tops, over the street,
Over the heads of the people you meet,
Dancing, 5
Flirting,
Skimming along.
Beautiful snow! it can do nothing wrong.

He was a poet and had enough firewood at home to heat his bones.

Rob

So do I. Around this part of Alberta, we get four months of winter and two months of tough sledding.

Joel Snider

I liked winter right up until I was old enough that I had to drive in it.

Fred Brohn

My dad was a test driver for Buick Motors many years ago. When I asked him about driving in Winter, he gave me a one word answer: DON’T

T. Fry

I love winter. I live in Phoenix AZ. 🙂

barryjo

We leave for Phoenix (Mesa) in the morning. I packed one pair of shorts. I have been there before.

WB Wilson

Really nice weather here in Hanalei, too. Or is it climate?

co2islife

If Cold Winters is the Expectation, What Would a Warm Winter Mean?
Al Gore is claiming that CO2 is the cause of the recent bitter cold. If that is the case, what would Al Gore be “Tweeting” if we were experiencing a record warm winter? I’m 100% certain that the next warm spell we have during a winter, Al Gore and Michael Mann will be “Tweeting” that a record warm winter is exactly what should be expected from the climate crisis. Facts are, in real science you have to have a falsifiable hypothesis.
https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2018/01/22/if-cold-winters-is-the-expectation-what-would-a-warm-winter-mean/

quaesoveritas

All weather is caused by “climate change”.
Before “climate change” all weather was “normal”.
Anyone who says otherwise is a “climate denier”.
/sarc

AGW is not Science

Nah, only “bad” weather is caused by “climate change.” When we have “good” weather, all you’ll her from the Climate Fascists and their media lapdogs is crickets…like you heard during the longest period on record with NO major hurricanes hitting the U.S. THEN, of course, one active hurricane season and all the hurricanes are supposedly “caused by climate change.”

Crispin in Waterloo but really in Ulaanbaatar

quaesoveritas
An interesting point. Climate is said to be the sum of weather. Fine so far. However it is impossible to take ‘climate’ and divide it into ‘weathers’.
I can accept that after a few years of weather, say thirty, we can describe the climate and its typical boundaries. It is impossible to take a ‘climate’ and derive from it alone a set of weather events making it what it is.
One cannot take a chicken and squeeze it back into an egg.
Thus the concept of a ‘climate event’ is conceptually flawed. There are no climate events. A climate doesn’t have the attribute ‘events’. All events are weather events.
The concept of a weather event being ’caused by climate change’ is equally flawed. Climate, being the sum of weather, doesn’t cause anything. A student’s average mark doesn’t ’cause’ a bad mark in history. But a bad history mark causes a drop in the average mark. That is a pretty good analogy.
Scoring an average of 80% last year doesn’t mean a) the average will be 80% this year, and b) that this year’s poor geography mark was ’caused’ by the drop from an average 80% to 75%. Geography is the cause, the average is the effect.
There are lots of bone-headed misconceptions afoot in climate science, but this has to one of the bone-headed-est.

Marv

Climate: The deciding factor that dictates what type of clothes you buy.
Weather: The deciding factor that dictates what type of clothes you wear.

ResourceGuy

Did Al Gore ever take science classes in college and what were the grades?

Maybe if for several years the temperature followed exactly along the ‘long term average’, they would finally admit to falsification. But the weather has NEVER done that, so there really is no risk of that happening.

AGW is not Science

Nah that would just be “random variability,” gotta keep up. /sarc

Rah

Before or after their adjustments?

Rick C PE

A theory that explains everything explains nothing.

Karl Popper

This is the single factor which most boggles the mind. The climate ‘scientists’ must know that their ‘hypothesis’ is the absolute and final last word in unfalsifiability. I suppose they’ve just become used to it because of some kind of quasi-religious faith in models and the assumption that they get a falsifiabilty pass because Pascal’s Wager. In fact I thought I saw something recently where this was being earnestly proposed. The major mystery is why they would expect anyone outside of their cult to accept any of that.

rocketscientist

There is no bad weather, only bad clothing.
Which is why I no longer live near Chicago…. 🙂

AGW is not Science

LOL – Whenever I think about Chicago, I think about that line from the movie “The Fugitive”…”Chicago has two seasons – winter and St. Patrick’s Day.”

PaulH

Time to haul out my down-filled bomber jacket and/or the leather coat, with apologies to the vegans in the audience, of course. 😉

RayG

But where does the down come from?

Crispin in Waterloo but really in Ulaanbaatar

PaulH
I am surviving Ulaanbaatar – minus 37 again this morning – because I have a rabbit fur-lined hat. I need it more than he did.
The only thing better is a wolverine fur. Breath frost doesn’t stick to it. That is what surrounds Inuit smiling faces.

John F. Hultquist

RayG asks “But where does the down come from/”
It is common knowledge that you get down off an elephant.

Down comes from under.

Coeur de Lion

Your President said “Bundle Up “

Henryp

Ja.
Told you.
It is globally cooling.

R Shearer

No, no, since 1984 we’ve known that cooling makes things warmer.

That’s exactly the double speak of 1984, the novel of Orwell.

ralfellis

>>since 1984 we’ve known that cooling makes things warmer.
Au contrair. Since 1984 we’ve known that warming makes things cooler.
Do keep up…
R

tony mcleod

Do you live in Antarctica Henry? That might explain your error.comment image?w=720&h=405

tony
interestingly,
my results showed that there has been no warming in the SH over the past 40 years.
Most warming took place in the NH, namely about 0.024K/annum which then becomes 0.012K/annum if I take the global average [which, btw, is the same as what Spencer and others are getting]
If you can bear with me and accept that my results are correct., what would your explanation that be, I mean for the fact that the distribution is not global and seems to concentrate in the NH, especially the arctic.

Hivemind

“what would your explanation that be, I mean for the fact that the distribution is not global and seems to concentrate in the NH”
NOAA rewriting past history?

JennRunion

breaks out the shorts….then checks WUWT…
oh….d&mn.
sadly puts shorts away

I guess that the NE still has enough proper dispatchable electricity capacity to cope, hopefully people are monitoring how much of it gets used, allowing a threshold to be set, rather than one of those “targets” that greenies are so fond of.

Bruce Cobb

Don’t worry! I’m sure all those roofs with solar installations are helping to save the day, although currently, the ones I see around here are snow-covered. Oops.

And not many hours of sunlight; and the sunlight there is is a fairly low angle.

Henryp

I still wonder how AW ‘s solar installation has worked out for him?

And no conducted warmth to melt the snow off the solar panels.

Paul

“…the ones I see around here are snow-covered. Oops.”
A sunny day and the snow sliding off scrubs the panels of dirt quite well. It’s the ice that last for days.

Henryp

Dirt is the biggest problem with solar. We have too little rain here.
Boy, do I look forward to climb on the roof again…

icisil

A LNG tanker en route from Russia was redirected to NE, and then turned around a day from making port. Last I heard it was headed towards Spain.

ResourceGuy

Please aim for Schumerville and Markeyville with the main cold blast. Don’t forget Sen. Whitehouse also.

RayG

And Senator Fauxcahontas.

So it seems more challenging winter to come. What a comfort it is to know however, that just by warming up the SUV and lighting the BBQ we can prevent this natural weather phenomenon from ever materializing. At least so they say in the fantasy world of anthropogenic weather Armageddon.

ResourceGuy

+1

Bloke down the pub

About time the UK had a decent winter so you could send some our way.

Henryp

You must be mad. I hate cold feet..

MarkW

Especially in bed. That will wake you up fast.

James Beaver

Solution: Merino wool socks and a poly hat just for sleeping.

Henryp

Wont work. My skin is allergic to wool.

bitchilly

having a decent one in scotland so far. plenty days below zero and a reasonable amount of snow.

NorwegianSceptic

“Our children will not know what snow is!” Yeah, right. Only a few islands at the west coast at near sea-level without the da*m white Cold stuff:
https://www.yr.no/observasjonar/sn%c3%b8lista.html?spr=eng

nc

Sooo if the Arctic is warming as Gore decrees, where is this cold coming from?

taxed

nc
The Arctic is warming alright. But part of the issue is that this warming is in part due to greater amounts of cold air leaking southwards. So this increase in air flow into and out of the Arctic can lead to far greater changes to the climate then CO2 ever will. Because if the inflow of warm air into the Arctic happens mostly over the oceans but the out flow of cold air happens over the land masses. Then climate cooling here we come.

It is coming from outer space.

taxed

No more likely to come from extended snow cover during the spring time.

Power Grab

That’s what I think.

yeah. More than cold coming in is the heat coming out. The natural thing. Light comes in from the sun, and it goes off again to the space. It takes a little while here in the earth before leaving.

Power Grab

I mean, I agree that the cold is coming from space.
[Rather, “The warm is going into the infinite cold of space.” ? .mod]

Henryp

Space is getting cooler??

Russell

All this cold is coming from the oceans. It’s getting pushed out by all the heat that’s going in. /sarc

LdB

The Polar Bears are getting revenge … you know revenge is a dish best served cold.

SteveC

Thank you Robert Frost… “Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening”
Whose woods these are I think I know.
His house is in the village, though;
He will not see me stopping here
To watch his woods fill up with snow……

taxed

l’ve recently been posting how l see there is a link to the mid Pacific and USA winter weather.
Good to see that am not on my own over this.

Joel Snider

We’re still in ‘Climate Change’ season.
We won’t get ‘Global Warming’ until summer.

Ian McCandless

How many times do I have to tell you scientists, that refuting global warming Theory only plays into their hands– for the simple reason that it ISN’T a theory, just a proposed alternative hypothesis?
The Earth could freeze to a block of ice at absolute zero through the core, and they would say “that PROVES it’s caused by human CO2 emissions.” As I keep telling you, you can’t prove a negative!
The only proper response to Global Warming claims, is to point out their shortcomings in their hypothesis by the scientific method; and that until they meet the scientific requirements by standard methodology, then by definition they cannot call it science.
ANY other response, will be taken as a refutation, which therefore validates their hypothesis as a theory.

Marv

“The only proper response to Global Warming claims, is to point out their shortcomings in their hypothesis by the scientific method; and that until they meet the scientific requirements by standard methodology, then by definition they cannot call it science.”
Personally I enjoy responding with laughter.

Marv

“Personally I enjoy responding with laughter.”
An example: Here’s a guy, a professor, that say we humans will be extinct in ten years. This prediction/projection was made a bit over a year ago which probably means we humans now have a we bit less that eight years to live.
Enjoy …

Ed Zuiderwijk

In the face of idiocy rumbustious laughter is the only sane response.

Henryp

I do too.

Hivemind

Global warming isn’t a theory – it’s a religion.

Doug

“How many times do I have to tell you scientists, that refuting global warming Theory only plays into their hands”
A One… A.two-HOO…A three… [Cruuunncchhh!!!]…Thrrrrreee!

dearieme

How many “abnormally” cold winters do we need before a Little Ice Age is proclaimed? How bad must a Little Ice Age be before people begin to fear it’s the start of a new Ice Age?

I think that it will take a year without a summer not caused by some catastrophic event, like a large volcanic eruption.
If it is to be more snow, then please let it be the nice low density snow of two weeks ago. This 60 lbm/cu.ft. stuff is heavy and hard to shovel.

How about Mayon in Philippines, another in Japan, Agung getting restless in Bali and that earthquake off Alaska and the one in Central America and/or Peru. Looks like things are stirring. Have no idea what, of course, but it is interesting.

Henryp

How abt the inside molten iron core of earth moving NE perhaps?

How long before nobody will be able to sell an “all electric” home? At the rate the electric bills are increasing, I won’t be able to heat my home much above freezing in a few years. My feet are cold now… in heavy sheepskin slippers.
Sure would be very glad if there actually was some warming… somehow. Warm is GOOD! Wyoming high altitude winters are not for the faint hearted.

Rah

This winter here in North Central Indiana isn’t unusual at all. It’s like what I remember it was like when I was a kid in the 60’s and early 70’s. Nice to have enough snow for the kids to go sledding.

J Mac

Yep – It’s winter in North America. “The Climate’s Falling(!)” assertions of AGW can’t change that.
Thanks to Anthony and Paul for this post!
Re: “Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are large, rapid temperature rises in the winter polar stratosphere…. “
Here’s a couple of animations showing the breakdown of the polar vortex during a SSW event.
The first shows a 2D polar view: https://youtu.be/-avwKDhXIrQ
The second shows a 3D simulation: https://youtu.be/wsWEhjX3yq4
Love Joe Bastardi’s pragmatic, fact based analyses and, from historical weather analogs, his forecasts.
You ‘da Man’, Joe!
Educational info on the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), if your interested.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/MJO_1page_factsheet.pdf
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/MJO_summary.pdf

2hotel9

But, but, but GLOBALL WARMINING!!!!!!!!! What a bunch of lie spewing (snip).

zazove

So there is increasing variance in the latitude of the polar jet means Navy has to adjust and some people lose every peach crop, boo hoo. Move.

joelobryan

Guessing Punxsutawney Phil will see his shadow and return to his hole.
Two weeks from today, 6 to 7 February, looks to be quite bitterly cold in the Eastern US.

Rah

Vengeance is mine saith Old Man Winter.

John Miller

‘Extended period’ means what? A month? I know it must be longer than what we experienced earlier this year.

It seems the following temp averages are considered irrelevant rather than inconvenient but I still think the point is worth making.
NOAA data show the averaged winter max of the contiguous United States was 45.0F in the 10 years of 1998-2007 and 44.2F in the 10 years of 2008-2017 – a 0.8F cooling.
The averaged winter min of the contiguous US was 23.8F in the 13 years of 1992-2004 and 23.6F in the 13 years of 2005-2017 – a 0.2F cooling.
Met Bureau data show the averaged winter max of the UK was 7.3C in the 10 years of 1998-2007 and 6.9C in the 10 years of 2008-2017 – a 0.4C cooling.
The averaged winter min of the UK was 1.4C in the 15 years of 1988-2002 and 1.3C in the 15 years of 2003-2017 – a 0.1C cooling comparing the first and second halves of a 30 year climate period.

True. Global warming stopped a quite some time ago.
To give a summary of all my investigations into climate change starting ca. 2009/2010
Concerned to show that man made warming (AGW ) is correct and indeed happening, I thought that here [in Pretoria, South Africa} I could easily prove that. Namely the logic following from AGW theory is that more CO2 would trap heat on earth, hence we should find minimum temperature (T) rising pushing up the mean T. Here, in the winter months, we hardly have any rain but we have many people burning fossil fuels to keep warm at night. On any particular cold winter’s day that results in the town area being covered with a greyish layer of air, viewable on a high hill outside town in the early morning.
I figured that as the population increased over the past 40 years, the results of my analysis of the data [of a Pretoria weather station] must show minimum T rising, particularly in the winter months. Much to my surprise I found that the opposite was happening: minimum T here was falling, any month….I first thought that somebody must have made a mistake: the extra CO2 was cooling the atmosphere, ‘not warming’ it. As a chemist, that made sense to me as I knew that whilst there were absorptions of CO2 in the area of the spectrum where earth emits, there are also the areas of absorption in the 1-2 um and the 4-5 um range where the sun emits. Not convinced either way by my deliberations and discussions as on a number of websites, I first looked at a number of weather stations around me, to give me an indication of what was happening:comment image
The results puzzled me even more. Somebody [God/Nature] was throwing a ball at me…..The speed of cooling followed a certain pattern, best described by a quadratic function.
I carefully looked at my earth globe and decided on a particular sampling procedure to find out what, if any, the global result would be. Here is my final result on that:comment image
Hence, looking at my final Rsquare on that, I figured out that there is no AGW, at least not measurable.

The Rick

Silly rabbit – now you’ve called attention to the true observed temps – keep an eye on this data as it will be ‘corrected’ warmer by those with the agenda. Guard these results and publish them widely everywhere.

Gary

Only 35 more days until March when the first signs of spring appear in the Northeast.

Scott

We got sticky snow in Wisconsin yesterday and all the trees are white. It sure seems a lot colder today than they were predicting. I do know that snow ground cover is supposed to drop temps 5F from what would otherwise be predicted but what about snow ground cover AND snow tree cover?

Please see how the atmosphere works in winter. One can see how the stratosphere declines more and more over the polar circle and the troposphere layer is more and more thin. This mechanism exposes the deception of anthropomorphic global warming.
Let’s be honest, how can a person influence the stratosphere?
http://files.tinypic.pl/i/00956/bf2t5ldgu02z.png
Few people realize that the polar vortex is accelerating above the stratosphere. As you can see below, the wind speed in the highest layers is the highest and reaches a speed averagely of 70 m / s, or over 250 km / h.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_UGRD_MEAN_JFM_NH_2018.png

One can see how the stratosphere declines more and more over the polar circle and the troposphere layer is more and more thin.
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/zt_nh.gif

The polar vortex increases the speed due to the temperature difference in winter over the polar circle. This is due to lack of ultraviolet radiation in the winter.
http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00956/0c0und6y2ald.png
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_ALL_NH_2017.png
The polar vortex is affected by waves that occur in winter over the polar circle.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_WAVE1_MEAN_ALL_NH_2017.png

Currently, the polar vortex is weakened over China and there attacks powerful frost, below -40 C.
http://files.tinypic.pl/i/00956/rs1tmj6ri2hs.png

Sceptics should listen to President Macron who is leading the way on climate change. Trump can learn a lot from him:
http://www.euronews.com/live

Sunsettommy

Yawn……
Zzzzzzz………

People walk on a street in Mohe County, northeast China’s Heilongjiang Province, Jan. 24, 2018. The lowest temperature of Mohe reached minus 44 degrees Celsius Wednesday. (Xinhua/Wang Kai)
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-01/24/136921403_15167922261081n.jpg

The forecast of the polar vortex at the beginning of February means the return of strong frost to the US and China. Large cooling in Europe.
http://pics.tinypic.pl/i/00956/h95h5kfzyapj.png

pochas94

i’m taking this opportunity to ask a stupid question. I was curious about exactly what longitudes the boundaries 8/1 (West Hemisphere and Africa), 2/3 (Indian Ocean), 4/5 (Maritime Continent), and 6/7 (labeled Western Pacific). Well, the Indian Ocean is located at longitude 90E. Progressing eastward in 90 degree increments, one encounters the International Dateline (labeled the Maritime Continent), the Eastern Pacific (labeled Western Pacific), and the Prime Meridian, Greenwich England (labeled West Hemisphere and Africa). So, since the 6/7 boundary is located opposite the Indian Ocean which is located at 90E, shouldn’t it be located at 90W and called the Eastern Pacific and not the Western Pacific?

scraft1

Could Mr. Dorian give us an update here? Looks like the forecast has changed.

John Miller

What’s happening with this forecast?

John Miller

So it hasn’t changed?

Over in Asia the freeze line last night dropped all the way to the southern coast line. That is a first for this winter. It’s as if winter started at the begining of January this season. This should be showing mid morning for coastal China. …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-244.29,35.07,1107/loc=114.268,23.949