Guest satire by David Middleton
2017 was the best year ever for electric vehicle sales in the US
Electric vehicle sales were up more than 25 percent compared to 2016.
JONATHAN M. GITLIN – 1/4/2018
The good people over at Inside EVs have done their tabulating, and the numbers are in: in 2017, very nearly 200,000 electric vehicles were sold in the US. The actual number they calculate—199,826—is a significant increase on 2016, itself a banner year for EVs when 158,614 found homes. What’s even more impressive is that overall new car sales were actually down year-on-year for the first time since 2009. Still, to keep things in context, more than 17 million new cars were sold in 2017. So electrics have a long way to go.
Tesla on top
As expected, Tesla remains at the head of the pack. The Model S, now in its fifth year of sales, remains the nation’s best-selling EV with 27,060 sold, no mean feat for a vehicle that starts at $74,500. And the Model X SUV had a good year, too, finding more than 21,000 buyers to become the third-best-selling EV.
Despite this, Tesla garnered plenty of lukewarm press on Wednesday as it revealed that Model 3 production will remain far lower than Elon Musk had been promising for at least the next quarter. Musk had set a target of 5,000 Model 3s per week by the end of 2017, a figure he now says won’t happen until Q2 2018 at the earliest.
Chevrolet’s Bolt EV was a strong second. The Bolt notched up just over 23,000 sales in 2017, a strong performance considering it only went on sale in all 50 states halfway through the year. It’s the only non-Tesla BEV to break the 200-mile range barrier, doing so at a much more affordable price than the Model S or Model X (or even the heavily specced Model 3s that are starting to roll out of Tesla’s factory).
[…]
200,000 EV’s!
The top selling vehicle in the US is the Ford-F-Series pickup truck.
To note, Ford F-Series sales figures are comprised of the following vehicles:
- F-150 family, including the F-150 Raptor
- F-Series Super Duty family, including the F-250, F-350 and F-450
The figures do not include Ford Heavy trucks sales results such as the F-650 or F-750.
The growth in US electric vehicle (EV) sales has actually been slower than the growth of Ford F-Series pickup truck sales since 2012.
| United States Vehicle Sales | |||
| Ford F-Series | All EV’s | Ford F-Series minus EV’s | |
| 2012 | 645,316 | 52,607 | 592,709 |
| 2013 | 763,402 | 97,507 | 665,895 |
| 2014 | 753,851 | 122,438 | 631,413 |
| 2015 | 780,354 | 116,099 | 664,255 |
| 2016 | 820,799 | 156,614 | 664,185 |
| 2017 | 896,764 | 199,826 | 696,938 |
…
Stark Industries Tesla did manage to cobble together 1,060 Model 3’s in December.
“There are no fundamental issues with the Model 3 or the supply chain,” the company said in its statement. “We understand what needs to be fixed and we are confident of addressing the manufacturing bottleneck issues in the near-term.”
But the company did not give any new production targets to replace the earlier prediction that it would be making 5,000 Model 3s a week by the end of the year.
- Q3 2017 Production Guidance: 1,500
- Q3 2017 Production: 260
- December 2017 Production Guidance: 5,000 per week (>20,000 per month).
- December 2018 Production: 1,060 per month.
Stark Industries Tesla missed the Q3 2017 guidance by 83% and then outdid themselves in December, missing guidance by 95%. At this rate, the next Quaternary glacial stage will save us from Gorebal Warming before EV’s do.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Good timing. Saw this earlier today…F-150 diesel with 30 mpg later this year
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2018/01/08/ford-f-150-diesel/1012201001/
I don’t see the point : sales of electric vehicles were up 25% last year, in an overall declining market, so what is there to laugh about?
I remember when Pioneer stereogram sales went through the roof.
I wonder what happened to them?
” sales of electric vehicles were up 25% last year,”
25% of sweet FA amounts to pretty much sweet FA, of course.
Electric vehicles, with restricted scope, have limited, situational value, and will for the foreseeable future barring a revolution in storage and conversion technology. The more likely scenario are hybrid vehicles that dynamically adapt to their environment and purpose.
Heard a recent estimate that a Tesla S would have about 120 mile range with the weather we’ve had recently assuming it was 100% warm before it left the garage (average daytime high of 11). Problem is that if you shut it down and it sits in a parking lot for 90 minutes you will suck up a lot of extra battery life just to get the heat and defroster back up to safe operating levels, so maybe that range goes down to 100 miles.
And if you don’t have a garage for this precious piece of plastic, what then? /sarc
Oh, gee whiz! Get a bicycle, right?
too expensive to leave parked outside in the weather…..and who’s stupid enough to put a self-igniting car in the house?
I saw a You Tube video of a family returning from Christmas in Canada in their Model X I guess. They kept on commenting on how it was -25C out and how that the electric seat heaters were keeping them so warm (I guess Telsa invented those too). Anyway they went from 95% charge to 48% charge after <100 km and they kept commenting that they would have plenty of charge left to get home. I guess their Leaf sat for 4 days at their house and used 70%+ charge to keep its batteries warm. Also they had the car plugged in the entire time they were warming the car up before taking off.
My thought watching the video was "What happens if you slide off the road? That battery ain't keeping you alive for very long."
If you don’t have a garage, chances are you don’t have a place to charge it in the first place.
Hi Mark of the Midwest…agreed, and it will go nowhere when Lithium batteries become more expensive than the car itself. Which will be about when you are ready to replace existing ones if what I hear is right. And if wind farms etc start using batteries as the dopy Australian Govs are doing then there will be no replacement batteries.
These strange people who live in the world of make believe have been telling us since I was a kid in the 60s that there is only oil enough to last 20 years max. Which was obviously a lie…no surprise there, my historian father pointed me in the right direction re these people when I was about 8, he was perfectly right. But the big joke is that they cant see that Lithium is not going to last and especially not if we start using this precious commodity for idiotic unnecessary crap that can be done far better with plain old COAL.
Beautiful, life giving coal. At 400PPM CO2 in the atmosphere we had better burn it, because at even slightly lower concentrations we will be in trouble and if it goes much further than that as it most likely will when the ice returns…then all life on Earth may well perish.
Buy a Ford, use your air-con, cook on the BBQ and release the stored life known as CO2, from coal.
MarkW
Thank you, from me and some 40% + of the British community.
One would imagine the electric car manufacturers would do their sums and figure that they are reducing their sales by almost 50% by promoting electric.
Say what?!
You mean they have thought of that before me?
Nàaaaaaaaaa……..,…Not possible.
I just made a small calculation. If you want to quickcharge 1000 Teslas S in a city or a region, you have to fire up a complete Coal power plant of 500 MW. Wind turbines will not turn quicker, if connected to a charger.
Or everyone gets stuffed into a high-density population center, where vehicles are shared or luxuries of the affluent.
To give you an indication of concern for saving fuel, motorhomes that can tow an F150 outsold EVs.
Now that’s funny!
Even more of a hoot is the toad truck loaded with multiple ATV, dirt bikes, or golf carts.
I’ve heard of Ram trucks, but Toad trucks are a new one.
MarkW
Ribbit.
I need to make another graph!
http://www.rvia.org/?ESID=indicators
Keep in mind RVs include trailers and firth wheels. Of course these are towed by a F150 for smaller rigs.
There are lots of 20 year old RVs on the road. There will never be 20 EVs on the road.
When we retired after coming back from China we needed to buy a place to live and something to drive around in. Our decision to buy motorhome was based on a nice used low mileage motor home being cheaper than a truck and it is a p;ace we could live.
David Middleton
No, publish a new graph. Making one suggests you are concocting one.
Mind you, the greens might love you, they concoct lots.
Kind of off topic, and I’m a big fan of pickups, I have an F350 diesel, but they need to start making them smaller, not bigger. Most drivers, with little or no experience in a vehicle this size, are dangerous. They routinely hog the center-line on rural roads, tailgate because they lose perspective by sitting up high, and drive way too fast for the stopping and handling capabilities of the vehicle. In the week between Christmas and New Years I pulled 2 F150s out of a ditch, they were both crew-cab 4 wheel drives, being driven by people who didn’t understand what happened, (i.e., didn’t know that trucks handle like trucks).
FYI, over that same week we got 37 inches of snow, now up to 68 for the year … yes the children just won’t know what snow is.
Been driving a 1993 F250HD crewcab with full bed at the farm. Quite a truck.
Hey, some of us short people need something that makes us feel like tall people! We have to be where we can see the road!
When my 1999 F150 with 307,000 miles on it rusted out, I replaced with a 2015 aluminum truck. I was the first one on my block to get one, and now everyone has one. I’m sure you are right. Some drivers will have to learn that trucks really do handle like trucks.
+++
I tell people this all the time and they just give me a strange look. The 1/4 ton trucks are now the size of the old 1/2 tons, the 1/2 tons are the size of the old 3/4 tons, and the 1 tons are now the size of public transportation. Not only is it extremely annoying trying to fit into parking spaces, but the blind spots around the trucks have increased due to their unnecessarily large boxy bodies.
Hmm. My 1996 VW T4 can load one ton and runs with 7 liters per 100 km (33 mpg)
And that is why front and rear cameras are handy when in town. On the farm, not so much except when hooking up a trailer. Love my dually!
Take secondary driver training folks (advanced driver training, but I hate that term) and size isn’t a problem (ahem….)
And yes, ristvan, I have no doubt you have taken a course, if not, I’m happy for you to fly me over to furnish you with some.
Not if he’ll let me buy that F350 first…
Four wheel drive vehicles are good for going in snow; but 2 wheel drive cars and pickups are 4 wheel stop too!
A 4wheel drive, in the hands of a skilled driver, will stop much faster than a 2wheel drive. All four wheels can be subjected to engine braking and torque transfer from the engine through the transmission and transfer case, with a 4wheel drive. 2wheel drive can only apply those physics through the two driven wheels.
@harry.
All cars are 4 wheel BRAKED…
Mark, You have a point about about smaller trucks. Although I drove a semi for North American Van Lines during my last two summer breaks in college, and doubled with my dad on countless cross-country trips, I still feel the need to be very careful in a large pickup.
On the other hand, My GMC Canyon with a 2.8L Diesel is a blast. Nimble, with plenty of power, 4WD, it still gives me 23.5 MPG overall. I live in the mountains, with 7 miles of dirt road before I get to pavement.
And I love power. Had to trade my 6.1 V8 Chrysler 300 SRT in for it. My sweet SRT just couldn’t handle the rigors of the dirt roads. That last to say that I’m amazed I can live with 2.8L. And have a blast!
The Model S, I wonder how many were second or even third cars , with an SUV or MPV in the mixture? So not replacing any.
Where it snows in the Winter, most of the model S’s are Summer-only fun cars. They go into storage around November 1st, just like the motorcycles.
Fourth would not be at all unusual.
For one of my friends, his Model 3 sits in his garage between his Aston Martin DB9 and his Porsche Cayenne.
The rest of his cars are normally in the hanger when not being used.
The Porsche is his primary car. The others in the garage count as second cars. The ones in the hanger are third cars.
But he loves his Model 3. Drives it to work.
Is it time to write up that poem about ‘mighty EVs have struck out’ just yet?
You could get stranded on the side of the road with both benchmarks, equally.
On the bright side, you won’t have as far to walk from a EV.
‘So electrics have a long way to go.’
Can’t believe he said that. Range anxiety, anyone?
There is a lot more to Tesla vehicles than just an electric drive train. Including them in EV sales data is correct as data, but not as information.
Gamecock,
“Range anxiety, anyone?”
No problem, assuming one can afford to spend £60K on a car that will get one two thirds of the way from the South East of England to the west coast of Scotland, 500 miles or so.
OK, so it remains an unbelievably expensive commuter car. Assuming one is wealthy enough to live in a house with a drive, which 40% of the UK isn’t.
So I guess the concept of all electric in the UK as announced recently by our PM actually means, 60%, assuming one can afford 60K outlay in the first place, which 90% can’t.
Great idea Theresa.
Talk about critical thinking!
Do tell. I see nothing unique about Telsa vehicles , apart from the Muskiness.
Doesn’t matter what you see. Many others do.
I had a 2005 Ford Freestar mini until last year when I gave it to my son who now uses it for his business, hauling ladders and materials etc. Ford sure makes some wonderful internal combustion engines. This puppy is still purring like a kitten after 13 years of service. The only things I ever changed on it (apart from routine stuff like brakepads) were the 2 tailgate pistons ($100).
And people still claim that EVs cost so much less to own.
Time will tell if and when they move from rich boys toys to real world workhorses.
The claim o the “$75,400” Model S is wrong -that refers to the 75kWhr dual motor, while any Model S vehicles sold during the year were sticker priced at around $60,000, BUTT…. Tesla reduced prices on many Model S and sold demo vehicles etc, so the average price paid was NOWHERE near $74,000. One month they sold more Chevy Bolts than all Tesla vehicles put together.
The article says:
Tesla says the cash price for a basic Model S is $74,500. https://www.tesla.com/models/design
I think it’s like a jewelry store. Only fools pay the official price.
…”199,826..” cars
So, were they all sold in Calif?
…or were some sold in NYC and DC?
After all, Gov. Brown will “save the world”.
…just like his mommy told him when he was 4
just like Kerry, Pelosi, Reid, etc who were young tykes during WW II
KNR
You are right on.
Subsidies for (mostly) rich people to do ‘virtue signaling’ on the taxpayer’s dime.
EV sales dropped ~90% in Georgia when they stopped the $5k subsidy (2015) showing how artificial the market for these cars truly is.
Why should any government subsidize the rich to buy indulgences? Doesn’t the government have better uses for tax dollars?
Would be interesting to see the equivalent data for hybrids as well. I think it’s about half a million per year.
When gas prices come back up, and they will in the next year or so due to lack of drilling and increasing global demand, EV’s and hybrids will make somewhat of a comeback. My guess more hybrids than pure EV’s.
I’ll probably be changing cars in November as my SUV will be approaching 5 yrs and that’s when I sell them and will be looking at what is available at that time. I will say the ICE cars have come a very long way in efficiencies so comparing a pure ICE to a hybrid means there isn’t that much difference anymore. I live in a city, but most of my miles are Interstate so hybrids would give me even less of an advantage on mileage. Throw in the premium cost for an EV/Hybrid and it’s a no brainer. The only reason I would get an EV would be in case of a gas shortage for any reason and then it would be a used one and as a second car.
Looking at my neighborhood, I can count 6 Tesla S’s and one X in just a few blocks. To offset that however, there are plenty of full size SUV’s. And really I think the Tesla’s were bought more for their novelty and status.
If you are looking for efficiencies it may pay to wait for the petrol combustion ignition engine being developed by Nissan and [I think] Mazda. Coupled with continuously variable electronic valves coming out of Europe, the ICE is not dead yet.
“Combustion ignition”???? Try “compression ignition”. [It’s early morning here and I haven’t had my coffee]
Up top is a CNN link to Oct 2018;
just south of that is December 2018 Production
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Tesla thinks they can do 5,000 Model 3s per week.
Let’s say they begin doing that, and manage 44 weeks per year . . .
5,000 x 44 = 220,000
Sold in 2017 – – : 199,826
I’m I the only one that sees a problem?
If you are wondering if they can double sales…they have 450,000 pre-ordered model 3s already IIR. So it’s more a mater of figuring out how to make them all before people get tired of waiting and cancel. I suspect Tesla will collapse before they can make them all. They have some big debt obligations coming due this quarter and beyond, they will need a few more billion in cash borrowed from somewhere and fewer and fewer people willing to lend them money when they continue to post billion dollar losses each year.
They are starting to get squeezed.
Stevek
Tesla are being throttled.
Throttled……….get it?
Oh the irony!
Yeah Tesla the only company whose losses rise faster than it’s income. Only lives by government handout. $75,000 and the wheels might fall off in less that 100 miles. Not for me
“Up top is a CNN link to Oct 2018;
just south of that is December 2018 Production”
Not likely.
Just getting ready to pick up my friend’s family at Toronto Pearson on a snowy day Four of them will have a spacious, 4wd F150 to come home in. Terrific space and very comfortable and looking forward to diesel 150.
Spend much of the -25C weekend reading about Tesla and it’s poor financial status that many believe will make raising future capitol difficult. Lots of talk regarding how they report and many say that there backlog of $35k Model S’s won’t be built since they will lose money on every one.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4135995-teslas-coming-bankruptcy
Also, still waiting for some government to make a statement as to when these electric vehicles will have to pay a road tax which is included in our gas prices; not to mention how will Tesla charge for supercharger energy when they discontinue to include it for free?
“Tesla missed the Q3 2017 guidance by 83% and then outdid themselves in December, missing guidance by 95%. At this rate, the next Quaternary glacial stage will save us from Gorebal Warming before EV’s do”
I come for the insightful climate analysis, and stay for the humour…funny stuff.
And this is close enough for government work!
Caligula Jones
You are just too mean for words.
Keep it up. 🤣
There are plenty of practical electric vehicles around. They have two seats, and two brackets for golf bags. Seriously, though, they can be a most practical second vehicle in a community designed for them. Sun City Center, FL, with dedicated cart paths, laws permitting and regulating them on the streets, and “cartways” to services outiside the city limits that serve many residents, has thousands of the things. Practical, cost effective, and they keep a number of people mobile who aren’t necessarily comfortable driving a car in traffic.
Agreed. Major problem with getting good efficiency is safety. With paths and roads that restrict to tiny vehicles much lighter vehicles will yield huge efficiency.
I have serious doubts about the ecological benefits of long-range electric cars, which are for private use. See: https://amosbbatto.wordpress.com/2017/07/05/emissions-from-gigafactory/
However, the author of this article is deluding himself if he thinks that electric vehicles won’t take over the auto industry. Their fuel costs are a third of gasoline. They have lower maintenance costs due to fewer moving parts and liquids and their motors will last 300 – 500 thousand miles. The capacity loss in batteries which was a major problem with the Leaf is being improved rapidly. Batteries are getting about 7% more energy dense per kg per year and their costs have fallen from $1000 / kWh in 2010 to roughly $150 / kWh today.
Electric cars production will follow an S-curve. Sales are very slow at first and costs are very high, but the costs are falling very quickly. Eventually you hit a sweet spot and demand jumps from 1% to 90% of the market in just a couple years time. Think about how cell phones took off. In 1983 when cell phones were first introduced they were the size of a brick and nobody was willing to pay $4000 for one. By 1990, they were getting cheap enough for the very wealthy and by 2000 most people in the developed world could afford one. Today, they make 2 billion of them a year and almost everyone owns a cell phone.
Right now electric cars are like cell phones in 1990. Their demand is about to jump dramatically as they get cheaper and longer range. When 500,000 people preordered the Tesla Model 3, every auto company saw the writing on the wall and started announcing plans for plugin hybrid and electric models. Volvo says that all its new models in 2019 and later will be electrified (hybrid, plugin hybrid or electric) and I bet every auto company will be the same by 2025. So laugh at the low sales of EVs today, but the auto industry is about to be hit by a tidal wave of change.
For current EV’s, range is an insurmountable obstacle with current energy storage technologies. They cannot become the default go-to vehicle type until this is solved at an unsubsidized competitive price point.
This is a valid comparison because many people walk into their local Chevy dealer not sure whether they need a Silverado or a Bolt.
It’s not a comparison of vehicle type. It’s a measure of scale.
Headlines about skyrocketing EV sales are meaningless because they lack scale.
Mark writes
“Most drivers, with little or no experience in a vehicle this size, are dangerous.”
Driving is dangerous period. The problem is aging, speed and tires. I was watching youtube demonstrating driving techniques for blowouts on truck tires. Before the dust settled you could hear the driver saying, ‘I’m ok’!
Tires are a lot better than when I first started towing camping trailers and boats. I never drove over 55 mph when rowing. The tires being the limiting factor.
When driving the motorhome I try to keep it under 65 mph.
I just bought 6 new truck tires for the motorhome. They are designed to carry heavy loads not speed. The speed rating for truck tires is 75 mph.
Minimize the time you spend driving next large tires that carry heavy loads. When they come apart they damage everything they hit. If it happens to take out a propane line, you have two minutes to get stopped and run away.
Often large truck tires get old before the tread wears down. Five years is a good rule of thumb unless you know the tire history. Driving 80 mph across the desert in the summer will shorten tire life.
When I get passed by a semi or RV going too fast, I do a mental checklist. Where is my first aid kit and fire extinguisher although it is a good bet that my wife’s bible will be more useful for the recently departed.
“2017 was the best year ever for electric vehicle sales in the US”
Does the research go back to the WWI era when BEVs were 1/3rd of all car sales? Does this include golf carts and warehouse vehicles?
No “green” research goes back past 1979.
America is just way off the pace with EVs compared with the market leaders
and who is on pace? and why is it rational to compare them with the US?
Very hard to get deal on F150. The dealers know they are in demand so you are pretty much out of luck.