My friend John Coleman, founder of the Weather Channel, has never been known for mincing words. He’s always been a “tell it like it is” kind of guy.
This is what he had to say on Facebook today:
Latest computer spaghetti map on Irma.
Each line is the path predicted by a different computer model. Most hit Florida hard.
Take a trip west and live. It you stay put your ssn on your arm with a sharpie.
Can anyone imagine the fallout should a politician tweet this advice?
Too true, would be accused of being anti-semitic.
A politician did tweet this
Isn’t that about what the mayor of Houston said this week?
Unless you have a concrete wine cellar. Then you should be OK.
A cellar? In a flood?
Cellar is good for the high winds. Then translocate all bottles to attic.
Cellar is good for the high winds. Then translocate all bottles to attic.
Or where your attic used to be.
Hey, Richard Branson’s doing it, on his private island in the Carribean:
http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/06/news/richard-branson-hurricane-irma/index.html
The trick is to empty the wine bottles by any means necessary, then use them for flotation.
Careful out there folks.
A cellar? In Florida?
Too bad Branson doesn’t have all the rest of Davos there with him . . ./sarc.
That’s where Richard Branson is, in the wine cellar on his island…
Don’t get many cellars in FL with the water table about 6″ below the surface – the term ‘Florida Basement’ means a floored attic 🙂
However many new – post Hurricane Andrew houses are built above code and have pre-stressed concrete ‘safe rooms’.
I thought a “Florida basement” was a sink hole. 🙂
Two reasons why wind turbines are not suitable for Florida. Violent storms and high water tables?
That is how you build onshore wind and bill for Offshore wind
In FL, basements and cellars are called indoor pools. When the water table often can be less than 10′ below the surface, you cannot even drain your pool. An empty hole in water is called a boat. An empty pool floats right out of the ground.
“An empty pool floats right out of the ground.” HawHaw!!! I have seen that here in PA after heavy rain. Those fiberglass inground pools are just big, oddly shaped boats.
The pool should have a non-return valve or blow out panel to let it fill with water and prevent flotation.
In Florida, we call the concrete cellars “swimming pools”.
I don’t think they have cellars in Florida….and for good reasons.
Yes, we call them swimming pools. They are built with no ceiling.
Land is cheap and the water table is very high. below ground for residential, or even commercial in most places, is uneconomical so it is not done. Slab on grade is the foundation.
One of the mayors here in the Houston area said exactly that during Harvey.
Of course this is assuming all your limbs remain attached, so might be a good idea to label all parts so those unfortunate enough to be tasked with the job will know which box to put all the bits in.
I am praying that the storm won’t do too much harm to those who have to stay in it’s path.
James Bull
Better have your scuba gear ready… LOL!
I’ve seen victims of tornadoes in Texas where a sharpie wouldn’t have made a difference in identifying the body. If people are going to stay, I pray they’re in a shelter designed for the apocalypse. God bless everyone in its path!
There is only one model that looks believable to me, and that’s the easternmost. But then again, I’m not a meteorologist. I just say this because of the huge ridge of high pressure currently over North America and moving east. By Friday it will be pushed all the way out to the coast.
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Surface/Forecast48.aspx?location=default®ion=R06
RW, Virginia Beach is praying you are correct.
Aren’t we all.
I think we all are praying that whoever does that model gets some BIG bragging rights at the next conference. If I thought it would do any good from way out here in Arizona, I’d be waving my Sensu (Japanese god of the wind) fan towards the east for all I’m worth…
And the 96 hour forecast when Irma will be somewhere around Florida.
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hr500.gif
Any meteorologists here to explain why most of the models show the storm stearing directly into that high pressure ridge?
“Aren’t we all.”
No, might as well make an animal sacrifice. More effective, since at least you’ll get something to eat out of the deal.
Why would you pray against an “act of god”?
They now have the High stalling over TN which will allow IRMA into FL, If that high doesn’t move I fear for FL, rather I will fear more. This is going to be a high winds, large area, heavy rain event. To me, only Atlanta is far enough away.
According to the forecast, they simply have the hurricane winning out and pushing the high pressure northward.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html
Computer models have all the accuracy lately of a guy in a pointy hat covered with moons and stars, manipulating a Ouija board while mumbling to himself. But then, even a busted clock is right twice a day . . . Stay safe out there, folks!
They did a darn good job with Harvey. Anyone paying attention knew three days in advance that the area was going to get four feet of rain in a few days, that the storm would stall after moving inland and may backtrack into the Gulf, etc.
And anyone thinking about it for a second oughta know that a years worth of rain in a few days means epic flooding.
IMO, the mayor of Houston was criminally negligent in not ordering an evacuation.
Fly to Seattle. By the time you get up there the smoke will be mostly blown eastward. So they hope.
If you decide to stay, send cash to …
Southeast—to Wyoming.
Plenty of of smoke in the Wind River Valley of Wyoming for the last month. Mountains are 25 miles west of me, I can’t see them.
A very ominous looking spaghetti graph, particularly as Irma looks to be wider than Florida.
Here is a worthless prediction:
Irma will miss Florida Keys all together, brush along the Florida’s east coast, then head north towards the Carolinas and New York.
New York refuses delivery, categorically. 😉
Boy, I hope you are right.
Unfortunately my little chunk of land sticks out into the Atlantic.
I think you are right Vukcevic. I have been telling anyone who will listen that off the coast is the most likely path.
But only most likely.
There is a chance for a worst case situation…the storm gets just past 80 degrees west, turns north by northwest, then north, and comes ashore near the southern part of Miami.
Ahead of the storm, on the right front quadrant, will be every large and small city on that coast, and the eyewall will be wide enough to hit everyone between US27 and the beaches…twice!
Ahead of the eye, the winds will be onshore for twelve hours or more at above storm force winds, with imbedded tornadoes, increasing to about 145 MPH at the leading eyewall, and then another eyewall hit and twelve hours of decreasing winds until it gets down to just storm force.
So, 20-25 hours or more of storm force to cat 4 force winds.
Now, since almost the entire population and nearly every structure on the entire East Coast of Florida up to about Daytona will get that wind pattern and duration, it would be worse than anything ever to happen in our lifetime anywhere in the world, in terms of danger to life and cost in destroyed property.
But that is not all, because also ahead of it, those twelve hours or so of onshore winds will be driving water straight onshore in a building crescendo of storm surge destruction.
When the winds reverse and push it back out to sea, it will be ocean plus, not just ocean, going back out.
Someone tell me if anything worse could happen than that?
By comparison, the devastation occurring on the other side of the storm will be merely cataclysmic.
Didn’t someone just say the exact same thing about harvey?
I heard it, john . . perhaps it will become a figure of speech; It’s sharpie time ; )
I can smell a new tattoo fad coming on ;0)
All the excuse they need to normalize ear-tags and microchips!
Just to mess with the coroner, put someone else’s SSN on your arm.
Doing what needs to be done to keep you and yours safe has nothing to do with whether or not it’s “CAGW” or just “Nature”.
Sounds like this is a Mother.
Hyped or not, if you’re in the the path, “take a hike”.
Airline price gouging in Fl.
https://www.google.com/amp/amp.miamiherald.com/news/business/article171497187.html
My wife is in Barbados and was scheduled to fly to MIA on Sunday to connect to RDU. I went on-line this morning and was able to rebook the exact same flight scheme for this Friday (two days early). They waived any change fees. So no premium and no additional charges. American Airlines.
Nothing wrong with charging what the market will bear.
Otherwise known as supply and demand…
I hear you can get some great deals on flights INTO Miami……
What a sick SOB……….
What?
He’s neither sick nor an SOB. He’s truthful. Truth hurts, doesn’t it?
Latitude,
What do you suggest someone like Mr. Coleman do, given the; boy who cries wolf day after day mass media reality we can see in regard to “climate change”? He knows what he’s looking at, and he knows treating official warnings lightly can mean death . .
absolutely he is…..what would be the reaction if he said that to all those people on those islands Irma just passed over….tell them to write their SS numbers on their arms
People need help and good advice right now…..not some crap like this
Write your name and a contact # not your SS.
Unscrupulous folks may see it on you (alive or deceased) and suddenly you or your family will find out you became a democrat, drained your bank accounts, bought a yacht and….
In all seriousness, name and contact number offers better protection.
I see it as an (obvious) attempt to make the danger palpable/visceral for those who might not realize it’s not just more scare tactics from Big Brother CAWG, Latitude . . Surely if someone was actually convinced to the point of writing their ID on their arm, they would realize it was a good idea to prepare for leaving, No?
@ Latitude,
You are correct, writing your SS# on your arm, assumes you’ve given up.
I’ve yet to see one.
I’ve heard that during the run-up to Camille that the cops would request next of kin for anyone who refused to evacuate. There is nothing new in this, just the technology is a bit different.
You guys are nuts….do you honestly think all the cops, sheriffs, firemen, water and sewer, power co, Drs and nurses, and on and on….are going to evacuate and take days if not weeks to get back?
No they are not…..and they don’t
tell them to write something on their arms
Or even better do you think that all 17,000,000 Floridians are going to evacuate?! That’s good advice for the Keys and low lying areas of the coastal counties. But the area where I live is 70 miles from the ocean and at 185 ft elevation and 350 miles north of the Keys. But even so this storm is 4 days away from Florida, and a lot can change with hurricane paths in four days.
It does look like it is very likely to hit somewhere on the SE coast, but where? Pensacola or 600 miles away in Key West or 1000 miles away in the Carolinas and/or Virginia.
Even in this county there is panic buying. Water is gone, bread is gone and there is a 40 minute wait for gas. Totally silly but better than waiting until 12 hours before it hits I suppose.
It might get some folks serious attention, and save some lives, O . . snowflake. It pains me that I need to explain such a thing . .
Mr. Coleman might be able to get some people who are familiar with him, and have some trust in him therefore, to take a very serious situation more seriously . . after decades of hearing official sounding voices warn of impeding doom that never materializes.
(I see YOU as the :sick SOB” for chastising him.)
What because he heard that expression and decided to repeat it?
He’s been reporting the weather way too long to not know there are tons of people and millions of reasons why they can not leave…and they don’t…he knows better..there’s no excuse
This is insulting to every one of them………telling them they are too stupid….when they have a perfectly good reason for choosing to stay
..I’m done, that’s my opinion of him…..you can call me names all you want, won’t change it
O sure . . only Latitude can rightly apply such names . . who could I forget? ; )
I see Latitude as something of a social retard (as I see many who comment here, which ought not surprise anyone, I feel, since this is something of a nerdy site, and despite what nerds might have been led to believe by various coddlers and brainwashers, knowing how to do math is not really the crucial key to understanding humans and their complex interactions ; ) for not realizing that those who hear something like what Mr. Coleman said, are extremely unlikely to actually start looking for a permanent marker ; )
Andrew killed 65 people, and it only passed over southern FL. If Irma goes the whole length and breadth of FL, the death toll could be higher, although construction codes have been improved since 1992.
IMO Coleman’s use of dramatic language is justified, if rude and crude. People forget how lethal Cat 5 storms can be, since it’s usually so long in between their landfall in the same area. Complacency kills.
That said, I’d do as Rud is doing and make preparations, but wait until Friday to decide whether to leave.
Flights will be unavailable and roads possibly clogged, but that’s the chance you take. When I lived in FL, I had a boat, so had another option for sailing off into the sunset.
I hope that Irma turns north well to the east of FL, but that’s not how it’s looking at the moment. The big high pressure zone over the SE would have to slide farther S and E than it is liable to do, in order to ward Irma off the peninsula.
Public safety and first responder personnel will have their badges and uniforms. They don’t need no stinkin’ sharpied SSNs.
Um yeah, humans have been migrating for eons.
Every single one could leave. Those that choose to stay, are solely responsible for what happens to them.
People walked from St Louis to Portland neigh 175 years ago.
Suddenly, “they just CAN’T” evacuate.
“You guys are nuts….do you honestly think all the cops, sheriffs, firemen, water and sewer, power co, Drs and nurses, and on and on….are going to evacuate and take days if not weeks to get back?”
Nope, I think they will (for the most part) see something like this as Anthony apparently did; A person with some authority and trustworthiness in the eyes of many, making it clear that they see the potential for great peril, who is making an attempt to fulfill what they see as their responsibility, now that they have contributed to the “dethroning” of the mass media and climate muckety-mucks in terms of unquestioning public faith.
Helping with that (I feel necessary) dethroning, renders it a responsibility to step up and warn, to the extent practicable, in times when some people one has perhaps led to not take the media/experts as seriously as they otherwise might have, but would do well to take seriously.
The people Latitude mentioned are not likely to see some graphic imagery employed to drive the point home, so to speak, as either insulting to themselves or depressing or whatever, it seems to me, since they are people who deal with the real thing at times . . as in, not snowflakes ; )
the Exorcist September 6, 2017 at 4:52 pm
My great-great-grandparents as newlyweds walked from MO to OR, but it took them months, and my great-great-grandmother’s Army surgeon dad had previously died (in 1847) on the Little Blue River in present day NE from cholera.
You say Andrew killed 65. Well the last storm Houston evacuated for killed over a 100 in the evacuation, not the storm itself.
I was watching the weather with the sound off in the restaurant we ate in and it looks like they are calling for the evacuation of everything coastal from Key Biscayne (Miami area) south thru the keys right now. Even if the storm just runs off the coast, those areas will get flooding from the storm surge. Now that is the sensible way to work this situation.
James,
Not evacuating New Orleans over Katrina cost some 1200 lives.
Not evacuating Houston from Harvey has so far cost around 70.
You’re right that evacuations also are dangerous. But Cat 5 hurricanes are worse. The previous Houston evac wasn’t from a Cat 5, IIRC.
Now, I grant that Irma well may weaken to Cat 4 before making landfall in FL. But the state is vulnerable. More so now than in 1992 for Andrew despite new, tough regs, because it has subsided and there are more people there now than then.
Well you have to admit that New Orleans was a special case. The place is below sea level, they failed to maintain their pumping system for decades (the money allocated just vanished into the bottomless corruption pool). The government there is probably one of the most corrupt in the country. Yes the place should have been evacuated. The population was on the small size when compared to Houston or Miami/Ft Lauderdale and it could have been moved out.
And lastly the residential areas, at least, should have been moved north to higher ground during the rebuilding. New Orleans should not even be there.
Many have ID of some type which is attached to their body, not just a license in a wallet. I still have and wear my dog tags when I go into disaster area, out into blizzard conditions to work or am on fireline for brush/forest fires. And if you are going to shelter-in-place in the path of a CAT 5 hurricane I would suggest you do the same.
NoLo
Florida was sparsely populated in 1988 compared to now.
Immense areas that were farms, woods and swamp are now densely packed housing, and there are exactly 3 major north-south routes out of the state. There are not enough rooms available in the whole country for the population of Florida. There are not enough empty plane seats for the population of even one large gated community here.
(BTW…last minute plane tickets always cost 3 to 5 times more than seats booked early…there are articles you can read on this pricing practice going back decades…and changing is not the same as buying a seat at the last minute…does anyone suggest they waive their normal fares? That said, there are hefty fines and strict enforcement of gouging laws here. Those companies did not raise fares, and anyone who flies a lot knows it well)
There is no place worse to be than stuck in a three hundred and fifty mile long traffic jam in a car that is running out of gas with a cat 4 storm biting you in the ass. If they evacuated from south to north starting on Monday, it is iffy if everyone could get out. Gas stations are out of gas, and the trip to the Georgia border is a tankful even if you are not in stop and go traffic. To get everyone out, they would have to get the northernmost people out forst…so it cannot work no matter what. By the time anyone knows who must evacuate for sure, it is too late. And if everyone left a week early every time a hurricane was a week from maybe hitting, we would all spend every season getting in our cars and driving to someplace with no accommodations remaining.
I like Coleman, but I do not think he has done the math on this one.
Besides, only ten percent of direct fatalities are from wind caused events. More people probably die in traffic accidents in such an evacuation, even if it could work given the time and the road space and the amount and number of gas stations and the gallons of fuel available.
All it took to sell out at most every station in most counties was for everyone to top off their tanks and fill a few five gallon jugs at once…or try to, before the gas ran out.
Well said, Menicholas, …….. and right you are. No matter how bad it gets, one would be safer and more comfortable “hunkering down” in their house, home or abode than they would trapped in the small confines of a stalled/stopped vehicle.
But as of right now, 12:03 PM ESDST, it makes no different where you are in Florida, …… if you don’t have access to a private airplane, tickets on a non-cancelled airline departure or a “sea-worthy” boat, ….. then you are pretty much “stuck” where ever you are and will have to “weather” whatever Mother Nature
Blows and throws in your direction.
The wife just got a phone call from Florida, ….. t’was the daughters telling her that it was just announced that the Palm Bay area, where they are, was not included in the “mandatory evacuation” zone, ……….. for whatever that is worth, if anything.
Mernicholous,
“I like Coleman, but I do not think he has done the math on this one.”
I don’t get it . . as I read him, he did what you say (above) you did;
“I have been telling anyone who will listen that off the coast is the most likely path.”
Why did you tell them that, if Mr. Coleman telling people essentially the same thing is wrong in some sense? Are you sure you’re not reading more into his tweet than was actually there?
Sound advice, you should also list your blood type and a contact phone number in case you are unconscious instead of dead when found.
The Facebook post seems to have been deleted. It doesn’t come up when I click on the link
If Hurricane Jose moves northward to an upwind position of Irma, it should take the power out of Irma.
Lets hope
What?
So, the people up in the Carolinas should hope a hurricane hits them so it can take some of the punch out of the one right behind it?
Sure, maybe that is a good wish.
But wishing cannot let one storm moving 17 MPH catch up to another moving 16 MPH and has a thousand mile lead on it. Or is it closer to 1500 miles?
At their current rate of forward travel, Jose will not even be to where Irma is now before Irma gets to the coast of Florida or nearby waters. .
By Saturday at 8:00 PM, Jose is projected to be a hundred or so miles north of where Irma was yesterday afternoon.
I never thought I’d see WUWT descend to the type of fear mongering so common in the MSM.
It seems the ‘end times’ sickness is spreading.
that advice is not fear mongering … its a rational response to a violent storm …
Being concerned about a S-S 5 hurricane is reasonable, spending money and concern over RPC8.5 is up there with worrying about the Easter Bunny as a disease vector.
There are 21.6 Million people in Florida.
Maybe he has shares in the company that markets ‘sharpies’?
It’s only fear mongering if there’s no hurricane bearing down on the population when the statement is made. Cat 5 is nothing to take lightly.
Being stuck on a highway with no where to go and no gas in a three hundred and fifty mile long parking lot with no place to even pee is not rational and suggesting over a dozen million people do that is not advice.
It is known as having ones head up ones ass.
If you think adult human beings who live where hurricanes are a fact of life take them lightly, even when it is not the strongest one any of us has ever seen heading in our general direction, is beyond insulting…it is simply vacuous babbling.
And deciding what is rational without even thinking it through is not even sophistry.
It is just stupid.
People have jobs. Just getting into one’s car and leaving is called quitting your job.
People have homes. Leaving one’s home before doing everything possible to protect it from the glancing blow that the vast majority will get, is more than illogical and irrational, it is negligent and constitutes personal economic suicide.
Panicking is the opposite of rational, last time I checked.
There is a concept called logistics. People that no nothing of it should refrain from thinking they know what they are talking about.
The only way to avoid being in an earthquake is to never live where they happen.
The only way for everyone to be out of town when a rare once in a lifetime hurricane hits is for no one to live here to begin with.
The cat five part of that storm is about thirty miles wide, as far as I can tell.
Why not suggest everyone living on any of the islands where the storm might have gone over directly be gone before it arrives?
That is the same half-witted logic that is on display here.
Maybe Coleman and Sheri and Derden have stock in the Looters-R-Us Corporation?
Is there any truth to the rumor that CNN reporters, who are covering the hurricane, write fake SSNs on their arms?
Corrupt News Network reporterettes are illegals without SSN of their own.
Well, I am in Fort Lauderdale, prepared either way (stay or evac depending on ~48 hour track forecast sometime Friday), and even have indelible Sharpies (for labeling freezer bags when we have to split big cheap bulk meat buys for the freezer). But not ever to write SSN on my arm. Weather alarmism at its worst. Big click bait for Weather Channel. Not funny nor clickable for those of us living it real time -at least regulars here like me (and my significant others sisters, with whom have had multiple phone consultations today), Tom in Florida (west coast Venice), and Latitude (the Keys).
Helicopters might do a brisk business on Friday, ferrying people to airports which are open.
I-75 NB is bumper-to-bumper, door handle to door handle.
“Well, I am in Fort Lauderdale,”…and coming to stay with you guys was a great idea…..until NHC decided to play whack a mole!
Dunno what we’re going to do now….75 is a parking lot north of Miami….we’re going to decide first thing Sat morning….might head to Naples, up to Hernando and stay with Patti.
…are you heading to the cabin??
L, we will decide Friday morning when the cone of uncertainty narrows. You are still welcome, either here (FLL) or there (Blue Ridge, very north central Georgia). We drive an older Ford Hybrid Escape AWD, so can do more stuff for more miles (2x) than most others cannot.
You got 95 on the east side of Florida as an alternate route starting in Miami. PITA in Palm Beach from construction, else easy. 75 on the west side of Florida is jammed because the prediction from yesterday was Irma up the west coast. Like I posted. Now looking maybe wrong. Invitation to shelter here is still open, or we can evac together in our hybrid SUV to the cabin (po us, a three Br, 3 bath) in far northwest Georgia. 11 hours drive, maybe more with evacuation traffic. Still safely ahead of Irma. Let us know. Unless the cone narrows close to us, we will stay put. Our guest bedroom/bath is yours here in that event. We have lots of food and water laid in.
Thank Bud, you’re the best! really I mean that….
NHC still says it’s on Cuba at 2pm Sat……if we leave Sat am that should give us plenty of time to hit the mainland and decide.
Been watching the Fla traffic cams, 75 north of Naples looks ok now……95 up to your guys was a parking lot today…
I’ll keep you posted…..the cabin is a little too far…I want to get back asap….plus if it pulls something and goes around the Keys (west)….we have time to double back and get back here before it hits up there
Rud…..un f’in believable….just checked again…NHC has moved it again….now it’s hitting at Lat 26…YOU
it’ll move again…..check Ventusky…don’t know what they are running but they have it a lot more east
What is NHC?
OH, nevermind
In case you do not check it, I have found this one is the best source:
https://ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2017/al112017/
FG, probably the roads out (north) will be OK except for fuel. Florida trims all large trees by highways as a matter of policy. We have a Ford Escape AWD Hybrid with twice the mileage of an ordinary Escape V6, and also a hand saw in its emergency bag (separate from our evacuation go bag) capable of cutting an 8 inch tree branch off in 1 minute. Then we also have the extra skid straps for the class 1 AWD trailer hitch to haul any remaining tree blockages out of the freed narrow roadway. You can never be too prepared. And I only discussed here evacuation roads, not looting responses…yup, got those amply prepared also.
Rud,
Glad to hear that you have anti-looting preparations.
How about jerry cans of fuel and water?
Antibiotics, iodine tablets and bleach?
I think that is one of the reasons why Gov. Scott issued the evacuation notices early. There really aren’t that many N/S options for driving. I’ve been on I 65 during just normal summer travel and it was a night mare.
Oops! I 75
Cruise ship lines are missing a huge bet on ferrying thousands of people at a time out of the path of maximal destruction.
Got bleach (gallon) so do not need iodine pills (man I hated those in Army training). We drive a full Escape hybrid with ~2x normal V6 AWD range on a 10 gallon tank of regular so don’t much fret gas cans for range. Only question left is whether we should go. Friday morning will provide the answer.
Rud,
I found that even with a filter and bleach, I couldn’t count on purifying all water encountered in the late, lamented Republic of Vietnam.
Filter tech has advanced by leaps and bounds, but I’m still of the double whammy school when it comes to water borne microbes. What the chlorine misses, the iodine is liable to get.
Plus antibiotics.
Actually there are quite a few off the shelf water filtering and purifying options out there. Hell, LifeStraws are widely available, and if you have a decent military surplus store handy you can probably pick up a MIOX water purifier for under $100. People really don’t plan ahead properly for taking care of their water needs.
I read this morning that the football game between Miami and Arkansas has already been cancelled.
That makes sense, even though the game is in Arkansas, the players have other priorities this week.
This got me thinking, what happens to the universities in the Miami area if this storm goes right over Miami.
It’s two weeks later, and Houston is still recovering. Irma looks like a lot less rain, but a lot more wind.
Additionally, if I was an emergency manager, getting the universities up and running would be low on my Must Do list.
If the schools end up being closed for two or four weeks, does it make any sense to try and finish out the quarter/semester? Or just cancel the rest of the semester and use the time without students to get the physical plant repaired?
North Georgia? Near the Etowah River? Excellent white water canoeing there and some great rock climbing. Used to camp up at Panther Creek Falls, back in the day.
Rotor (Merritt Island) 🙂
I wonder how many Floridians are on this site?
Larry (Cocoa)
There is absolutely no way that I-95, I-75, and US27 can carry all of the people out who live here, not in a week. And what if the gas station people decide to leave too?
Is there an orderly process for them to bring up the rear?
If you want to leave, you get in your car and go in the middle of the night, or you oughta forget it.
Everyone in South Florida has the same plan and if even one tenth of the people decide to leave at once, they will never make it…if you get stuck because of a fatal accident or for any other reason, like just too many cars or no gas left (they are restocking after all the stations ran out on Tuesday morning) because there are more people leaving than the stations tanks can hold even with a new delivery of gas.
If you wait until Friday afternoon or even Friday morning, I think there is a good chance all of the people upstream of you thinking the same thing will block your path long before you get out of the state. It is over three hundred miles just to the GA border from South Florida, and I can tell you there were already no rooms to book as of Monday evening. And the storm may hit there as well.
If it is heading up the east coast, get to the west coast or down to the Keys, you may stand a better chance.
With the path this thing is on, if it is hitting Fort Lauderdale, then it is hitting a lot of towns north of there…perhaps all of them, since no one can know which of those towns will and will not get hit, everyone ‘being cautious” but not so cautious as to leave days ahead of time, who is north of you…well, you get it or you do not.
Gloateus, the answer is no…there is no way those roads will carry enough people once it is clear it will make landfall, not on the trajectory it is taking.
I am on those roads every single day.
Saws and guns will do you no good.
If your car will protect you from what is coming if it catches up with you, might as well just find a large treeless parking lot and ride it out there. One with a bathroom nearby.
This is the dilemma of this sort of event…by the time it is clear that it will hit you, it is clear to everyone else around you, and in Florida, being that north is the only way out of state, three hundred miles plus of towns in front of you are all full of people thinking the same thing at the same time. IOW…it is too late to safely leave.
Not sure if this one will be a big rain event capable of causing flooding sufficient to wash out a bridge here and there, or simply overwash the road…but that will bring everyone to a halt, and if the roads are on contraflow, there is zero chance of turning around at that point.
Some hurricanes have been spotty rain makers, others having huge shields of drenching rain…and I have seen no indication they can predict which is which ahead of time.
We have had hurricanes hit that came through mostly dry, like in 2004. They let all the water out of Lake Okeechobee ahead of storms that were predicted to have sixteen inches but had zero rain in spots, and there was a bad drought in the ensuing dry season.
If I did not have a job and I lived in a building where i just needed to lock the doors and go, i would go now…right now.
Neither of those is true.
But, I remembered all of this in 2013 when i was looking around for a house to buy in the Fort Myers area.
There were a lot of really nice homes, and some great deals in places like Cape Coral. I took a hard look at the canals and the elevation and the water all around that city, and decided to live thirty miles inland, in a less nice house but with a huge pool, and several lots loaded with fruit trees and palms and flowers, and at 23 feet above sea level on the highest ground in Lee County, with no shopping nearby, but with solid concrete block and beam construction, and a concrete tile roof, with no great restaurants or movie theatres less than half an hour away but with automatic storm shutters…
In other words, I bought with this day in mind, and have been inconvenienced a lot every day, but have a tranquil fortress when I am home, not near the beach but with a large pool and so much privacy clothing is totally optional inside and out.
I have bleach, and a few bottles of Povidone Iodine…better than the pills, two drops to a gallon. but I have Brita filters which I do not need because i have twenty thousand gallons of flush water than can be consumed in a pinch…which I will not have because I have a reverse osmosis filer and pressure tank under my sing and a well with a pressure tank out back and a generator which will run the pump, and the air conditioner, and every one of my gadgets and lights…and I also have a gajillion flashlights and huge Ryobi batteries and they are all rechargeable and I have a car charger if all else fails.
I value my fleet of chain saws over my guns…they are far more likely to come in very handy.
But I also have an embarrassing collection of the sharpest bow saws and pruning saws I have ever seen in one garage.
I have my J-14 skiff with a gas sipping 15 HP Mercury outboard that starts on the first pull every day, out on my four wheel drive stick shift Tacoma that is hooked to it’s trailer…with of road oversized tires, and a diesel gator all terrain vehicle for whatever…hauling, going to buy gas when the roads are impassable.
But that does not matter because I have enough nonperishable high protein calorie dense foods like nuts and beans and cookies (ok, no protein there) to last for a month even after I invite any of my friends on the east coast to come crowd in if they are nervous.
Be prepared, then prepare again, then have a plan, then a reason or five you will not need to use your plan.
Have tools, skills (electrician, plumber, mechanic, carpenter/cabinet maker) and supplies for each skill, and plan on not needing them.
Oh, and a few huge bags of cat food.
Even in Andrew, when Homestead was levelled, few people died. Flooding and car accidents and heart attacks kill more than wind ever does.
Rud, I’m with Menicholas. I would leave now, to Tampa anyway. Friday will be too late.
I visited Ft. Lauderdale for a spring vacation in 2006. Stayed at one of those vintage motels just south of Sunshine Blvd. I was surprised at the damage that Wilma had done to one of the condo buildings next door. And she was a Cat 3 that landed on the west coast. Stay safe!
Floyd and Rita.
Look up what happened in those evacuations, which were far less people evacuating lesser storms and from places with multiple directions of egress.
Far more people dies in the evacuations than in the storm…i am not sure the storms killed anyone.
But a large bus full of elderly evacuees caught fire and blew up in Texas during the Rita evac disaster.
24 dead and a road completely blocked to everyone behind that bus
People died of heart attacks and heat stroke.
It is HOT out there down here this time of year…that’s why we be having hurricanes.
Six million. That is how many live in Broward, Dade, and Palm Beach counties alone.
Six million. Three roads out (the turnpike joins into I75 south of Ocala).
Do the math.
And of the three, US27 goes through every little town in the center of the state and has traffic lights and everything else to slow it down. So there are two.
One accident shuts them down for sometimes hours at a time. No way to get around from most of these places, not that many cars and not fast, anyway. Trust me, i know…i have been stuck in plenty in routine going home or middle of the day driving.
Along with all the information that has been suggested above perhaps the name of your dentist too, that should make identifying your remains using dental records much easier ;0)
If you have dog tags, use ’em.
If not, then bracelets.
From my essay 7 December 2016, Miami’s Vice
I hope to heaven that I was wrong on that call — but the projected path of Irma doesn’t leave my room to miss Miami.
Ojala Miami isn’t hit by the eye, but it looks as if at least hurricane force winds and surge are baked in the cake.
As of late yesterday, there were next-to-no flights out of FL (from Orlando southward) until at least Sat. Nothing to Seattle, nothing to Lincoln, NE, and nothing to Plattsville, NY, or pretty much anywhere in between. I found one or two for a friend, ranging from $1700-4200 to go from Fort Lauderdale to Dallas with 3 stops in between and 16 hrs of travel time. The concern was that Fort Lauderdale’s airport would already be closed by that time.
People are driving north…which is really the only direction you can go. It’s not like you can just spread-out wide and escape risk. My experience with massive evacuations is traffic nightmares with people running out-of-gas. There have already been local gas stations running-out in a number of counties. Being stranded on the interstate is not really a good option for a major hurricane.
Furthermore, you can properly evacuate thinking it gets you to safety, only to get hit. When Charley in ’04 was supposed to head up to Tampa, many people went south to the Port Charlotte area…and Charley made a right turn to hit them. Some in the Port Charlotte area who saw the turn fled inland to Arcadia…and Charley followed the Peace River up to nail them. The Orlando area gets hit by more tropical storm force winds than any part of FL because so many storms go through there.
There’s just too much uncertainty with predictions to get proper advanced notice.
I would think that if the storm goes up one coast, driving to the other coast would be enough distance.
TS to Cat 1 strength winds for the most part.
Doesn’t take much of a change in path to wreck those plans. And if lots of people have the same plan, then you’re crawling across Alligator Alley with one gas station along the way.
NOAA seems to show 50-60% of TS winds for me. But some meteorologist in AL is calling for hurricane conditions for basically the entire state except for the panhandle based on the current project hit on Miami and move up the east coast of FL.
Those percentage maps are a joke.
It says they are an experimental product, not for planning purposes.
It may have to do with the wording…chance of any give spot…
Given the size of the wind field and the trajectory, if one location in a north south line gets hurricane winds, it seems unlikely in the extreme that a place fifty miles north will not have nearly the same risk.
It depends on the longitude of the turn northwards.
A big storm like this with a large and fast wind field cannot easily jog left or right…once it is heading north, if it is not to 80W yet the west coast will be safe…it will only hit there if it goes through the keys.
Small compact storms can turn easily, big ones like this have so much angular momentum that is very unlikely to happen…and there are only so many possible mechanisms for steering it.
If it slows enough to slip by the trough that is going to turn it, it may not make the full turn and just go straight when it hits south Florida…but none of the models have any turn like that…so far.
It appears the jittering back and forth between onshore or offshore of the East coast is due to the timing of the turn…how far west it gets before heading north.
I am fairly certain it is either offshore by some amount (best case), or onshore maybe ten or twenty miles at the most…likely around the turnpike.
The models are showing strong clumping, most of them on most of the runs. Outliers keep showing up sticking out to the west and East of the clump, but they keep gravitating back to the same clumpy position on must of the runs…just offshore or the East Coast, or coming ashore near Miami.
We are now less that three days out, and the models have been very good up to three days out on this one.
When they clump, that has more weight to me than outliers that are different from run to run.
And the clump has been vacillating in a narrow range for days now.
Of course, there are always chances for some wild card to op up that was unanticipated.
I’m not talking about some spontaneous jog after landfall, and people aren’t just driving 50 miles north to escape the storm.
It’s mostly the point that it turns north for this storm which is the issue. The cone of uncertainty covers the entire state still. Once it heads north and picks a direction, it’s a bit late to try evacuating.
The latest Euro model and NOAA/NHCC have shifted the path a bit more west this afternoon. Hurricane-force winds with this path would cover the state except for the panhandle. East coast will still take more of a pounding than gulf coast, but heading to the gulf coast isn’t much of a solution.
I agree, not if the current projection is the path it winds up taking.
Perhaps the best plan if one is not comfortable with the sturdiness of their home, is to find a good strong shelter in some high spot away from the coast.
Me, I am going to be doing everything I can to shore things up until it gets here.
I ordered a larger generator that runs on propane or gasoline, and they said it will be delivered between the 12th and 18th.
I am guessing it will not come Tuesday, but if it does…Yay!
I also ordered 10 5 gallon gas cans. Coming Tuesday. Or when a truck can get through.
When power outages are widespread, and this one could be the most widespread ever, it can take weeks for them to restore it.
I would love to have a bigger generator show up if power is out and it is getting really old.
And a trifuel one means I can perhaps get a tank of propane delivered and not have to worry about gas.
I think fewer people are using this option, so propane may be readily available. Wish I had thought of online ordering at the beginning of the week…I could have had anything delivered by Saturday for sure.
I am recalling past storms now, when they did totally unexpected moves.
Elena, my first…going straight north one hour, an hour later it had done a hard right turn and was heading straight for right front quadrant at Tampa and our plant nursery in Pasco.
Then, it stopped just offshore against all predictions, stayed in one spot despite being predicted to continue on into Florida any minute…for 48 hours!
The just went back the way it had come and hit near where it was originally heading. Weird.
Andrew,,,talking to people who had been through it and lost everything.
Was asking one grower at a trade show why on Earth he stayed?
He said everyone was being told it would turn…it never did turn at all…went straight in and never veered a bit.
I am looking at this one and wondering…will it forget it is supposed to turn?
I thought the same. What if you evacuate to Charleston, only to get hammered by the eye, which passed by FL on the east?
Reminds me of those who evacuated Tokyo to Nagasaki, after Hiroshima.
There was a lady in 2004 who had her house destroyed by Charlie in Punta Gorda, and she moved to Hawaii right after.
Within a month, the island she moved to got a direct hit by the first hurricane to ever hit there.
Go where she aint.
Indeed, the storm track predicted takes Irma on a direct hit to Turkey Point and then St. Lucie nuclear. I did not study St. Lucie, but imagine it is as bad as Turkey.
Since 1980, they reduced, not INCREASED, they reduced the expected flood levels, and they did this after Fukushima. They also admit that even with their reduced flood levels, that the plant with still flood. So with the 1980’s numbers it will flood to 4 or 5 feet within the facility.
But their rational for not doing anything, is because they insist the flood will backoff completely within 75 minutes, and that they can therefore deploy, move, and install their emergency “FLEX” equipment to prevent the meltdown.
Really, this nuclear shite has gone beyond such bat shit crazy that I am just shaking my head. The more you dig, the more absurd it all is.
Check it out, and spread this link. We are playing Russian roulette (no offense to Russia) with these nuclear plants.
http://www.nukepro.net/2017/09/irma-targets-2-nuclear-plants-on-money.html
Zero deaths in the USA and Canada for nuclear, after 40 years. Really good stuff. It is the future.
Nuclear is too expensive, too dangerous, it kills countries. Lessons are not learned.
Pilgrim lost outside power due to a repeated lack of maintenance, and was 1 step away from an uncontrolled dump of radiation.
http://www.nukepro.net/2015/02/pilgrim-nuclear-in-boston-came-very.html
“Nuclear is too expensive, too dangerous, it kills countries.”
Utter alarmist bedwetter drivel.
Stop making stuff up!
car, you again?
1) Nuclear plant even underway and heavily invested are being cancelled. financial analysts, even GE state that nuclear is too expensive.
2) NRC predicts a nuclear accident every 1,000,000 years, but we have huge ones about every 10 years
3) Gorby stated that Chernobyl was the last straw the did the old USSR in. Japan is toast, dead man walking.
I know you won’t bring any argument because there are no viable arguments. begone!
Chutzpah, stock. The anti-nuclear movement has endeavored to make nuclear more expensive, and largely succeeded. Building to account for real risks, not the hysteria of the green blob, would be much less expensive.
“I know you won’t bring any argument because there are no viable arguments. begone!”
As if you would know.
Arguing with bedwetter evangelists is as pointless as arguing with a brick, and you have just demonstrated that perfectly.
Halla, provide 1 example in which some “anti-nuclear” movement actually created additional regulation on the civilian nuclear energy industry.
———————————————————————————
Irony, they refused to shut down this reactor at Turkey Point while facing one of the largest hurricanes of the century, and then they had to SCRAM it based upon some still un-admitted problems.
One of the Turkeys experienced a problem, initiating a scram:
“MANUAL REACTOR TRIP ON LOWERING STEAM GENERATOR WATER LEVEL
“On 09/10/17 at 1855 [EDT], [Turkey Point] Unit 4 reactor was manually tripped from 88% RTP [Rated Thermal Power] due to a failure of 4C Steam Generator main feed regulating valve causing lowering S/G [Steam Generator] level. All other systems operated normally. Auxiliary Feed Water initiated as designed to provide S/G water level control. EOP’s [Emergency Operating Procedures] have been exited and General Operating procedures (GOP’S) were entered. Unit 4 is stable in Mode 3 at NOT/NOP [Normal Operating Temperature/Normal Operating Pressure].”
“The licensee is investigating the failure of the feed regulating valve. Offsite power is available. Decay heat is being removed via main feedwater with steam discharged to atmosphere using the ADVs [Atmospheric Dump Valves]. There is no known primary-secondary steam generator tube leakage.
The licensee informed the NRC Resident Inspector.”
https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/event-status/event/en.html
Fukishima was a problem because the emergency generator flooded and all of the power lines to the plant were destroyed.
As long as the back up generator is protected, flooding IS NOT a problem.
Fukushima was built partly below the water table!!!!
[??? .mod]
@mods:
In Fukushima, the torus or wetwell was built below the existing water table. Then sump pumps were used to lower the water table. With the power failure, the sump pumps stopped. Ground water is still getting into the basements of the reactor buildings. IIRC
No, it was not the generator that flooded, they were moved uphill.
But they left the transfer switches in a room with no waterproof door that was below surge level.
So stupid it hurts.
That sounds possible. They lowered the site about 75′ (if I remember correctly) to get it closer to the ocean to save operating costs. That’s why it flooded. A nuke plant up the coast didn’t flood because it’s designers prioritized safety over costs and placed it 50% above the highest modeled tsunami height. It avoided flooding by 1.8 m.
No there are lots of systems that need to work, generators are a key one. From an old film “the making of Fukushima” we can see that they intentionally removed a mountain so they could build it at sea level, make pumping and deliveries easier. Check it out.
http://www.nukepro.net/2014/10/making-of-fukushima-archives-coriums-in.html
Read some of it…
You made a big deal about changing flood elevations. The 1980 report seems to use ft MLS, or “mean low water,” which sounds like it’s a local datum of some sort based on a body of water or some tank level or something. The updated report uses NAVD88. It’s a datum shift. It’s a change in absolute elevation but not relative elevation.
Possibly, I’ll check it out. But here is the salient point—even at the 2016 Maximum Flood Level, the plant is still expected to flood. But they expect all flooding to leave within 75 minutes, so they can get to the emergency pumps and a 550kW generator that are in another building, so they can move them and install them.
Bat shit crazy comes to mind.
You were correct about the Datum issue, but digging further shows that even when that is taken into account, they still dropped the Probable Maximum Flood—
Amazingly though, since 1980, they reduced the maximum flood level. It used to be 22.5 MLW (Mean Low Water Datum). See further below the new Max Level is 17.5 NAVD88 (A new Datum set in 1988 which is 2.21 feet higher than MLW see link). Them bottom line though, is that even though there was a Datum change, they still reduced the level of the maximum probably flood, AFTER FUKUSHIMA. Rather than get safer, they became more risky.
Datum chart now on the article
http://www.nukepro.net/2017/09/irma-targets-2-nuclear-plants-on-money.html
Quit with your fear porn,they have already started bringing both reactors down. And doing gradual transfer. So just stop.
[Please use a single username when commenting here at WUWT. -mod]
At South Texas Nuke, they did not shut down even though predictions of flood heights that could have dangerously flooded the plant were predicted.
So no, this is not fear porn. This is pressuring them to do the right thing. Also just now FPL has a news conference and said “we will shut them down” but failed to indicate when. Contrary to your Risk Denier statement of “they are already bringing them down”, that is not true.
The lessons learned from Andrew were very clear. The NRC wanted them to shut down earlier, but they had no balls to enforce that, and they are even more captured agency now.
Adequacy of Timing of Plant Shutdown in Anticipation of a Hurricane
Turkey Point procedures for timing of a plant shutdown in anticipation
of a hurricane require that the plant be in at least Mode 4 (i.e., hot
shutdown) 2 hours before the onset of hurricane-force winds at the site.
Estimating 8 hours to complete an orderly shutdown, the licensee began a
plant shutdown approximately 12 hours before the predicted landfall of
the hurricane. As a result, both units were in Mode 4 when Hurricane
Andrew struck. However, the licensee commitments in response to the
station blackout rule only require the licensee to commence shutdown at
least 2 hours before the onset of hurricane-force winds. Therefore,
starting a plant shutdown strictly in accordance with the licensee
commitments could have resulted in the plant being in the midst of a
dual-unit shutdown when offsite power was lost. Additionally, at Turkey
Point (and at other commercial reactors susceptible to hurricane
damage), important equipment (e.g., auxiliary feedwater) is located
outside and likely would not be accessible during a hurricane.
Hurricane Andrew Hit Turkey Point 1992. There were a ton of “lessons learned” generated in a letter, but not implemented. The nuclear cartel has captured the NRC and the NRC has no balls to force them to shut down now.
Some very serious problems were close to happening, like a stack damaged and falling on the generator building, loss of that building would lead to a meltdown, a Fukushima.
The on site water tank collapsed onto the fire water system, destroying it. Any plant fire would not have been put out, and the result….a meltdown, A Fukushima
The number 1 concern of the NRC was the timing of the shutdown, the longer it is shutdown, the safer it is due to heat generated by half-lives and heat removal.
stock,
What is this nuclear cartel you speak of? And if by “captured” you mean the NRC is not completely staffed by individuals who despise nuclear power, then I suppose you could be considered correct.
rip
ripshin, It is a cartel, from the uranium mining, equipment production, plutonium production, tie ins with military, including depleted uranium (which use of should be a crime against humanity).
And clearly the fact that they did not switch to thorium shows the depths of depravity of this whole cartel.
The NRC is beyond captured. They do regulate and inspect, but when it comes to the important things, they look the other way, they fail to enforce meaningful fines, they allow pollution to go on without a prompt action plan, they let not “like for like” parts be installed with disastrous consequences (San Onofre)
“including depleted uranium (which use of should be a crime against humanity).”
You really haven’t a clue, have you?
cat—- it is funny when those who have no clue, accuse those with a clear view—of having no clue
Amazing you try to attack my least controversial statement.
The government should have distributed dog tags to individuals in order of their risk profile. Better yet, they should have had a plan to coordinate risk management before, during. and after catastrophic natural climate change.
Dah Comrade…zees eez a goot plan!
Reports are that the island of Barbuda is decimated – barely habitable.
Decimated means one out of ten people are killed.
Yep, words have meanings. Apparently “journalists” skip that part of reporter class in community college. According to report on Fox PM Gaston Browne says one confirmed death on Barbuda, with widespread property destruction.
ah, Deci, as in ten, cool, TY
It turns-out Trump-hating Bobby DeNiro, who has made his share of statements regarding climate change, wanted to make money with a “luxury overwater resort” in Barbuda. I guess he doesn’t believe in climate change THAT much https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimdobson/2016/08/05/robert-de-niro-and-billionaire-james-packer-will-transform-barbuda-with-luxury-overwater-resort/
I think it is a word often misconstrued as simply meaning “totally destroyed”.
That is the context I have heard it used in most often.
Apparently in Roman times an army or regiment would be punished by having the men draw lots and one in ten was killed.
It also has the meaning of totally destroyed, both are legitimate.
I thought computer models were accurate. If they cant get it sorted for the next week how the heck do they get it right for the next 80 years.
It’s worse than that Owen….look where the models are…and where the NHC puts their official track
…the NHC doesn’t even believe their own models
OK tonight’s Tropical Tidbits vlog spends the last 90 seconds on the above chart. He warns people that this does not mean what you think it does and the actual affected area stretches from Pensacola to Virginia. Four days out is just beyond current skills to make an accurate projection. The timing of that 90 degree north turn will determine where this thing goes. That storm is moving at 16 mph and a 4-6 hour span puts that turn andwhere over a 60-90 mile reach. That in turn sends the storm off the east coast or into the gulf and anywhere in between.
It could still strike Cuba which will throw off the models as well.
I highly recommend that vlog for a nightly 10 minute semitech briefing on what’s happening in the Atlantic basin every night during storm season.
You dont know how to read.
I wonder how much the new Goes satellite will help with this?
Different questions.
Suppose I have a model of a pair of Dice.
The model is really accurate with respect to the surface of each Die.
Now I want to model dropping them from 100 feet onto
the ground.
I want to know two things.
1. How long it will take them to land
2. what numbers will be facing up
I will probably get the speed of the fall relatively close ( but never perfect)
Getting the numbers that show up will be very hard.
Maybe in the first few micro seconds I can predict the value showing on the uppermost face of the die.
But after that initial time.. well, the number will be between 1-6.
But the boundary condition ( how fast will it fall) is more knowable.. still noisy because
of drag and wind etc, but more accurate than the other answer.
This had the sound of some profound insight at the first sentence.
And…?
I’m going to go out on a limb here and suggest the comments were made to shock people into evacuating long before the storm arrives.
Back to your outrage…
“I’m going to go out on a limb here and suggest the comments were made to shock people into evacuating long before the storm arrives.”
As any person with decades of experience in this technical field, and decades of experience in communicating with the public, ought to do, I feel, Steve . . particularly now, with public trust of the mass media and Governmental type experts very low . .
I was setting up a major corporate meeting today in Orlando, and at about five o’clock, they told us never mind, take it all back down, they cancelled the meeting (the attendees would have been trying to fly into OIA during the storm itself… nope.)
A number of other meetings and shows are shutting down early. A lot of people are losing at least a week’s worth of work, just from the preemptive cancellations.
Surf Expo has been running this week, and it’s ending early, too, but a lot of the attendees have been out at the east coast of Florida catching the hurricane surf.
There is usually not much, because the Bahamas blocks the swells.
One reason why South Florida, and even North Florida, has little wave action.
SSN should go on your torso, not arms. Per the guys at the EOD school.
Funny, I know several EOD alumni and they have service number, blood type and NKDA(if applicable) tattooed along the line of rightside collar bone. Cuz you never know when you ain’t gonna be able to speak.
Hype is hype, even when hyped by one of the greats.
It’s becoming a meme. It was said on Bolivar before Ike. That was in 2008 and likely not the 1st time.
It will be interesting to see the category if it actually does make landfall. Also, in addition to the High, there is the cold front.
The predictions for Irma’s direction are precisely why we shouldn’t believe climate change predictions (and that goes for either cooling or warming). They can’t predict the future. They can’t even predict which direction a hurricane is going to go. The phrase “Anything can happen” is being repeated many times in the weather forecasts that I’m seeing.
They are predicting the exact position of a leaf floating on a swirling river.
They try to keep track of the swirls in the river and the position of the leaf…but it is hard.
But they do better than anyone could just by guessing.
Not anyone, the first time I saw Irma picture, and its location, I’ve imagine exactly the same path. Sud to North more o less close to Florida!
Does not count unless you wrote it down and showed people.
I imagined it would mimic hurricane Donna.
I wrote about Donna back in August on my FB page…I had a weird felling about this season.
I noted that Donna went over the exact location where I now live…it was uninhabited woods then.
Personally, I wanted to be wrong, and still do!
Not too sure about that 🙂
I heard this story about writing the SSN for the Houston hurricane. Does he repeat the warning for each hurricane or did some other person give that warning?
no he heard that warning and thought he would be a tough guy by issuing a similar one
it is amazing how many stupid comments have been made in this tread.
There are 20 million people in Florida and a few of them are not going to be able to evacuate. No, really, we can not evacuate the whole state.
I went from Daytona to Orlando on Wednesday at 4:00pm. The I-95 was a parking lot headed north. I-4 east bound towards I-95 was a parking lot. In the Orlando area the toll roads were all a parking lot headed out of the city. I was going in to the city so I was zipping along in light traffic. I could not have gone back to Daytona in under 8 hours I bet.
Flights are cancelled. There is no motel rooms available in the whole state according to a co-worker (with a policeman husband). She tried to book one in north Florida. You can not stop and get gas even if you do move on the interstates.
Yes, make fun of those who don’t think they can evacuate. May Karma get your stupid ass back in days to come.
The middle of the night may offer an opportunity…at least earlier in the week.
But I am guessing about that. I have been getting around OK all week, went to work Tuesday and Wednesday, and will go for a little while in the morning.
Wednesday I drove all around Fort Myers and Estero and was on the Interstate a couple of times in each direction…it was not crowded then.
On Tuesday morning I was hearing all the gas stations were out or had crazy long lines. On my way home I stopped at the Racetrac gas station at I75 and Luckett Rd, drove right up to the pump and filled six five gallon cans and my truck.
On Wednesday evening I stopped at a WAWA and filled up a bunch more gas cans and my car…there was no one around and they had plenty of gas. They even had plenty of the ethanol free stuff they sell for about 40 cents more…much better for small motors like outboards, chain saws and generators.
Get up at 6 AM and go to a large truck stop gas station…they have preorders standing for gas every single night. Yu will get gas. Costco will have water if you are there when they open each morning.
You can even get gas cans if you think about when the trucks arrive and show up then…in the middle of the night.
I noticed today that none of the retailers will say when they have trucks coming. They just say trucks will be coming.
Got to know how to work it, where ever “it” is. Being in a pre-disaster zone is always kinda bizarro. Then it hits and things become truly strange.
Yellowstone is nice this time of year. Pack up the car and go visit.
This is when the first blizzards usually begin to dump on those mountains, no? Maybe a few more weeks.
BTW, IMO, Yellowstone is beyond nice at any time of year.
I found this after a few minutes of searching…traffic engineer stats.
Two interstates out, Some smaller roads.
Capacity of these smaller roads, and even US 27 and 301 and US1 and any others is in the thousands per day.
I think beyond certain amounts of cars, rates of travel slow so much the number of cars passing a given spot might decrease instead of increasing. One accident and people can start running out of gas and then having big problems. Lots of elderly in Florida.
So, for a four lane interstate, the capacity is given as 72,000 car equivalents per day.
Maximum theoretical flow rate is listed at 1900 vehicles per hour per lane, whatever that means.
That is way above the capacity given separately for a four lane road. i think this must mean two in each direction.
I-75 is three for most of the way, in each direction so 108,000 vehicles per day. Contraflow doubles that , although probably people are not going very fast with no signage facing in the proper direction.
http://www.mikeontraffic.com/numbers-every-traffic-engineer-should-know/
If I would have gone west I would be right in the path since it has now geared west. Maybe the state should implement better and more ways to evacuate and during hurricane season have a large supply of fuel to that people are NOT stranded due to the lack of fuel for the transportation out.
I heard the Savannah GA weather lady say on air you can call the emergency evacuation numbet all you eant but No One Will Be Coming To Get You.
What a horrible eay to word it. People are already scared and the lack of fuel to purchase and get out is not out fault and to scare people with such insensitive comments is terrible.
Evavuation in such highly poppulated areas is very difficult without the lack of necessary supplies to do so.
So I guess I will wrap my drivers license around my neck since deliveries of gas to stations in my area stopped days ago. I prefer not to have my social security number out there for the evil people to get and use. Florida has had major price gouging on all needed items for preporation of the storm. And shame on you guys for placing the blame on people who had “No choice but to stay” due to the above.
Please have a little more compassion and ways of saying you need to leave.