Still very early, but enough concern from the National Hurricane Center, to talk about it in their 5 day outlook.
See the yellow patch, worth watching closely as the forecast develops.
An area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur as the low moves slowly northward.
If this system does develop, it could bring additional rainfall to portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. However, any rainfall forecast is uncertain at this time range and it is too soon to determine any specific impacts. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_0d0.png?301802
shows no sign of thee yellow hatched area, nor is there any discussion of it
Leo, you need to click on the ‘5 day Outlook’ at the bottom of the graph
I would have thought that with to cooling caused by Harvey, that chances of another large storm building so soon after would be limited. Maybe that is the reason for the low confidence given for this developing.
Yeah. I did in the end find it. Very confusing
Looks pretty low prob to me tho. Irma could be a bit feisty on a week or so tho.
Greg
Sea surface temperature is a secondary component. Look at hurricane in high NH latitudes in January 2016 – winter, and others.
Pressured atmospheric transport is the important factor.
The entire northern Hemisphere has been increasing in pressure over past 5 days, as it does at this time of year as the NH troposphere contracts into autumn. Higher NH pressures increase SH blocking preventing transport. It feeds on itself until mid September.
Look at the Arctic sea ice trend decline at NSIDC charctic during Harvey build up to max = NH pressure increase resulting in Arctic inflow.
Harvey was trapped by high pressure. Mann does not know what he is talking about.
If there is an increase in mid latitude ocean induced atmospheric warming the problems will increase.
Note also on nullschool the atmosphere flowing from SH to NH. Someone must have left the door open in the wall.
Regards
“I would have thought that with to cooling caused by Harvey, that chances of another large storm building so soon after would be limited.”
I would think so, too. I know that one regular thunderstorm in a line of thurnderstorms, can steal energy from an adjacent storm cell, so it makes sense that one Hurricane can steal energy from another. If it’s close enough.
ominous starting location
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-51.52,21.41,750
great graphics, but what do you see that is ominous?
It is in the area where many of hurricanes start, wind is in the right direction, the midday sun for the next week or so along the route (as far west as the Caribbean islands) is more or less strait overhead – maximum heating of the water.
Maximum velocity has moved up to 104km/h which is double of what it was about 18 hours ago.
Wave on the Atlantic goes in the direction of the Caribbean.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
one more important component
thanks ren
There is also a tropical storm over the Gulf of California. Will block low in the south of Texas.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=namer×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
Now this looks a bit ominous, imo. This is the highest water content I have ever noted using earthnull over the years. Japan is in for a major rain depending on the heading this takes. I see it is forecast to stay to the east of Japan as it moves north. …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=130.40,22.69,750/loc=141.999,26.030
also, …http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/
hey wow! i hadnt found that setting
and then i found this one
hilarious
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=misery_index/orthographic=260.16,33.33,750/loc=-91.991,32.891
the misery index!
i was looking at the big swirl up nth off the usa coastline same side as harvey why isnt anyone talking about that/ its not that far from other big places?
Here is another cyclone which must be gravely concerning to those in the path of it, https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-240.67,22.67,3000/loc=116.214,21.700…
Jetstream is still high in the north. It will facilitate the formation of tropical storms in the Caribbean Sea.
http://virga.sfsu.edu/gif/17083100_jetstream_h84.gif
In the last 12 hours the maximum wind velocity has increased from 55 to about 75 km/h
OMG, I hope not! 😳
The SSTs after Harvey are very low for any storm formation. In normal times a storm might form but there is probably not enough energy left in the Gulf along the Texas coast see http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/gulfmex.cf.gif
The anticyclonic circulation in the Gulf of Mexico is constantly moving warm water from the Loop Current into the western Gulf. Plus the waters there are shallow. It won’t be long before that cold spot is ‘erased’. Besides, hurricanes are very good at drawing in warm, moist air from far distances so they aren’t entirely reliant on the immediate sea surface temperatures. Much of the moisture Harvey dumped on Texas was advected from the eastern Pacific through the Tehuantepec Gap.
“any rainfall forecast is uncertain at this time range and it is too soon to determine any specific impacts.” That’s because you are using a meteorology, not an advanced climatology. Use climatology for your projection, and everything becomes crystal clear.
Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
Sounds like a climate change prediction.
“Could form”
Development, “if any”
“If” this system does develop, “it could”
However any rain forecast “is uncertain” at this time
“too soon” to determine
Let’s not borrow trouble yet.
The only thing missing from this nebulous precaution is that: “We must take immediate action to forestall the impending disaster”.
After the extensive downplaying of Harvey on these pages it might be a good idea not to minimise the significance of these warnings.
Latest GFS (Wed 12Z) actually does develop something by next Wednesday. Not necessary a very strong system (may not reach hurricane status), but still wind, lots of rain, and again travelling east along the Texas coast (although faster in this prediction). Not good.
Meanwhile the BBC is linking Harvey to climate change.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-41082668
Would you expect anything else from them?
The BBC picked this up for Mann,
“There’s a well-established physical law, the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, that says that a hotter atmosphere holds more moisture.”
If the BBC would have read further into Mann’s Harvey-Climate Change explanation, they would stopped while they were ahead. Mann attempted to link Harvey and Climate Change through the amplification of Hadley Cell, when in fact a deep mid-latitude trough prevented the hurricane from moving east. JoeB gives a great explanation and points to the Phase-2 MJO and Harvey.
https://earth.nullschool.net/ Shows global wind patterns. You can see tight extra-tropical lows off Cape Cod and off Newfoundland.
Icebergs should blasted off the Larson Ice shelf and towed in from Antarctica to cool the gulf waters.
The ice is useless at the poles.
Looking at the nullschool weather maps, it looks like that storm IRMA could end up been the greater risk to SE America. With the suitable surface winds along the Mid Atlantic and a weak jet stream above. This storm could become a hurricane by the time it nears the coast of the USA.
Don’t know how accurate Weather Channel forecast is that far out, but they have this low bringing substantial rain to the Texas/Louisiana coast next Tuesday. They were very good with Harvey 4 days out. And their Irma track agrees pretty well with GFS and ECMWF. So, worrisome.
Ira is rather well developed already and it’s path past a few days is very uncertain.
Irma*
On top of this, there’s Irma…
Check out @BigJoeBastardis Tweet: https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/902960165569392640?s=09
I sure hope Joe is wrong about Irma!
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09
not this one…..
12 hurricanes in 1886- always possible.
Just because it may not reach the threshold of a tropical storm doesn’t mean that it won’t produce copious amounts of rain. Exactly what happened in Bradenton and Sarasota this last week.
Just checked out the Stormsurf 7day jet stream forecast and its looking like its issuing a weather warning for the SE of the USA. Looks like a huge block is going the set up over the western half of N America in around 5 to 7 days time. Which will drive colder air from northern Canada deep down into the SE of USA. Which will cause the set up of a large low over the eastern USA. While at the same time storm lrma could be moving in towards the USA. Should these two interact then their is a risk of very high rainfall over the SE area of the USA.
If Irma does a WSW dip, chances grow significantly for a US impact (50% if what I read was correct). The ULL and ridge will be playing tug of war over the next several days with Irma. Root for the ULL!
On the fifth of September the hurricane will be close to the Caribbean.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/09/05/0000Z/wind/isobaric/700hPa/orthographic=-78.11,19.18,903
This is not the end of the rainfall in Texas.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/09/05/0600Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=cape/orthographic=-92.18,25.46,1979