Where climate change is most likely to induce food violence
Study finds capable governments more important than weather
From the OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY via Eurekalert
COLUMBUS, Ohio – While climate change is expected to lead to more violence related to food scarcity, new research suggests that the strength of a country’s government plays a vital role in preventing uprisings.
“A capable government is even more important to keeping the peace than good weather,” said Bear Braumoeller, co-author of the study and associate professor of political science at The Ohio State University.
While previous studies had examined the impact of climate change-induced weather patterns on violence and the increased danger of violence in weak or failing states, this is the first study to demonstrate that the combination of the two risk factors is even more dangerous than they would be separately.
Braumoeller conducted the study with his former doctoral students Benjamin Jones, now at the University of Mississippi, and Eleonora Mattiacci, now at Amherst College.
Their results appear in the Journal of Peace Research.
“We’ve already started to see climate change as an issue that won’t just put the coasts under water, but as something that could cause food riots in some parts of the world,” Braumoeller said.
Extreme weather such as droughts and floods could hurt agricultural production in some countries, leading to violence there or elsewhere by people who are desperate for food.
“Climate-induced food scarcity is going to become an increasingly big issue and we wanted to understand which countries are most threatened by it,” he said.
The researchers estimated the effects of food insecurity and state vulnerability on the occurrence of violent uprisings in Africa for the years 1991 to 2011.
The researchers used a variety of measurements for both food shocks that lead to violence and to gauge the vulnerability of countries.
For the climate-related causes of food shocks, the researchers analyzed rainfall, temperature and – importantly – the international prices of food, including sudden increases in prices.
“We recognized that countries that imported food could be impacted by climate shocks in other parts of the world that suddenly increased prices, even if they weren’t experiencing any significant weather impacts themselves,” Braumoeller said.
When examining countries’ vulnerabilities, the researchers analyzed a host of factors including a country’s dependence on agricultural production, its imports, the strength of its political institutions and its wealth.
“We found that the most vulnerable countries are those that have weak political institutions, are relatively poor and rely more on agriculture,” he said.
“Less vulnerable countries can better handle the problems that droughts or food price fluctuations create.”
These results suggest ways that the United States and the worldwide community can respond to these challenges.
Addressing the vulnerabilities of countries is “crucial to breaking the link between food insecurity and violence,” Braumoeller said.
That means more than providing food aid to offset shortages in the short-term. More broadly, efforts should be focused on strengthening government institutions in vulnerable countries and helping them invest in “green growth” policies aimed at increasing economic growth while fostering resilience to climate shocks, he said.
“Development aid is important now and it is likely to be even more important in the future as we look for ways to increase climate resilience,” Braumoeller said.
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Contact: Bear Braumoeller, Braumoeller.1@osu.edu
Written by Jeff Grabmeier, 614-292-8457; Grabmeier.1@osu.edu
What an idiot. CO2 helps plants and the world is getting greener by satellite data plus crop yields are rising. Despite no statistically significant change in global temperature for two decades now, a rise in temperature would increase the growing season and push back frost dates, lets grow potatoes in Greenland again. A drop in CO2 by 100 ppm instead of rise would have likely wiped out 1/3 of vegetation on planet. CO2 is a socially beneficial gas promoting a green earth, not a pollutant which will cause hell to break loose. Food riots and political instability because of CO2 – what are these idiots teaching naive youth in college classrooms?
If you want to see continental and global scale famine, look at the Little Ice Age.
Cold kills directly and by starvation.
As of course too do socialism.
Both limit resources.
I seem to remember this same line of argument in the Population Bomb nonsense a half century ago.
If one looks objectively at the data and history, it is communism, socialism, and dictatorships that cause and have caused more food scarcity and starvation not to mention the actual murdering of “citizens” than “man-made climate change”.
Cheers,
Joe
Beat me to it. Well said.
Cold climate change causes food shortages, starvation, and violent actions to get sustenance.
Exactly, temps where I live have dropped around 25 degrees F below average over the last 2 days, and are forecast to stay well below average for 3 more days. I started my tomatoes early under t-5 fluorescents, and already have tomatoes on the vine. Most other gardens in the area will see their plants set back a week or two because of this. There was also one night of rain on Wednesday where it rained most of the night. There has been scattered showers since then. This is a night and day sea change from the last 6 years in this area. …http://www.intellicast.com/Local/ObservationsSummary.aspx?location=USCA0307
Ding ding ding, you get promotion and tenure credit for this detritus.
The best way to prevent food violence is with affluence, allowing people to afford food.
Confiscatory taxation affects semi-discretionary items (such as highly nutritious foods) of the household budget first, forcing people to spend less on less healthy alternatives (e.g. junk food).
Unfortunately government programs to deal with ‘climate change’ all require increases in confiscatory taxation to fund the redirection of wealth to projects (and entrepreneurs) of dubious effectiveness.
I didn’t read through all the previous comments, and maybe someone else stated it, but just in case not, here’s my 2 cents:
Climate alarmism likely to induce food violence.
Okay, that’s the headline. Now the rest of you can fill in the details.
I can’t disagree with the premise that Governments and politics are definitely involved with “Climate alarmism”.
Food violence will start when Brawndo is used to irrigate crops. Then burrito wrappers will become scarce.
Some parts of Idiocracy have come true.
Aw, crap, we only ordered a gross [1], but with all these IPCC types running all over creation, saving the planet left and right, why, hell, we’ve run plum out of Nobel Peace Prizes, again. Would someone please order another crate?
[1] 1 gross = 12 dozen = 144
Oh, and please order a crate of those magnets that let their mom’s display their awards on their refrigerators. Each Nobel Peace Prize winner gets 1 (and only 1) commemorative refrigerator magnet.
Bear F. Braumoeller (Ph.D., University of Michigan) is Associate Professor and Director of Graduate Studies in the Department of Political Science....and he is a past Councilor of the Peace Science Society...http://www.braumoeller.info/
Where is Griff to explain and defend with shallow thoughts and facts?
My comments seem to have vanished into moderation?
Okay, that’s the only time you can claim moderation.
Gee, didn’t Paul Ehrlich write this book in 1968 and then again 1990. According to him we all should have starved to death or died fighting over food by now. About the only place people are starving to death are radical socialist countries like Venezuela and failed Islamic states like Somalia. We produce now and will in the future enough food to feed the planet. Problem has always been in distribution not quantity, The fighting has been all about who controlled a plentiful supply. The UN FAO listed obesity as a major health problem in the world.
Not to mention the inflation adjusted price of metals staying flat or falling.
I believe that the clearest example of human-induced famine can be found in Venezuela. A completely mismanaged government run by an incompetent successor to a greedy thug has resulted in a financial implosion that leaves store shelves bare of basic foodstuff ingredients like flour. The Maduro government can’t afford to import enough things like corn, and soybeans and wheat to feed the population. I won’t go into the lack of simple medicinals like aspirin or hygiene products.
That disaster has nothing to do with climate. It has everything to do with crappy politics and corrupt politicians.
And since Venezuela is on the western edge of the Amazon rainforest, the concept that carbon might somehow be at fault in this monstrosity foisted on the Venezuelan people is pure, unadulterated hypocrisy.
Another good example of mismanagement is North Korea. At least of the population is, frankly, teetering on the edge of starving to death because Kim Jong-un spends the money he steals from other countries on missiles and weaponry, and the Chinese are losing patience with him. This, too, has little to do with climate or carbon, because there are few, if any, vehicles in North Korea that do not belong to the government, and all food aid is relabeled as North Korean, especially if it comes from the USA.
It is bad management all around, NOT carbon, and NOT climate.
reading the first few lines if this article, I wanted to ask, what political science might be. A self-ironic science or the UN-University. After reading to the end, it’s worse than I thought.