Climate craziness of the week: climate change likely to induce food violence

Famous scene where John Belushi yells “food fight!” in the movie Animal House

Where climate change is most likely to induce food violence
Study finds capable governments more important than weather

From the OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY via Eurekalert

COLUMBUS, Ohio – While climate change is expected to lead to more violence related to food scarcity, new research suggests that the strength of a country’s government plays a vital role in preventing uprisings.

“A capable government is even more important to keeping the peace than good weather,” said Bear Braumoeller, co-author of the study and associate professor of political science at The Ohio State University.

While previous studies had examined the impact of climate change-induced weather patterns on violence and the increased danger of violence in weak or failing states, this is the first study to demonstrate that the combination of the two risk factors is even more dangerous than they would be separately.

Braumoeller conducted the study with his former doctoral students Benjamin Jones, now at the University of Mississippi, and Eleonora Mattiacci, now at Amherst College.

Their results appear in the Journal of Peace Research.

“We’ve already started to see climate change as an issue that won’t just put the coasts under water, but as something that could cause food riots in some parts of the world,” Braumoeller said.

Extreme weather such as droughts and floods could hurt agricultural production in some countries, leading to violence there or elsewhere by people who are desperate for food.

“Climate-induced food scarcity is going to become an increasingly big issue and we wanted to understand which countries are most threatened by it,” he said.

The researchers estimated the effects of food insecurity and state vulnerability on the occurrence of violent uprisings in Africa for the years 1991 to 2011.

The researchers used a variety of measurements for both food shocks that lead to violence and to gauge the vulnerability of countries.

For the climate-related causes of food shocks, the researchers analyzed rainfall, temperature and – importantly – the international prices of food, including sudden increases in prices.

“We recognized that countries that imported food could be impacted by climate shocks in other parts of the world that suddenly increased prices, even if they weren’t experiencing any significant weather impacts themselves,” Braumoeller said.

When examining countries’ vulnerabilities, the researchers analyzed a host of factors including a country’s dependence on agricultural production, its imports, the strength of its political institutions and its wealth.

“We found that the most vulnerable countries are those that have weak political institutions, are relatively poor and rely more on agriculture,” he said.

“Less vulnerable countries can better handle the problems that droughts or food price fluctuations create.”

These results suggest ways that the United States and the worldwide community can respond to these challenges.

Addressing the vulnerabilities of countries is “crucial to breaking the link between food insecurity and violence,” Braumoeller said.

That means more than providing food aid to offset shortages in the short-term. More broadly, efforts should be focused on strengthening government institutions in vulnerable countries and helping them invest in “green growth” policies aimed at increasing economic growth while fostering resilience to climate shocks, he said.

“Development aid is important now and it is likely to be even more important in the future as we look for ways to increase climate resilience,” Braumoeller said.

###

Contact: Bear Braumoeller, Braumoeller.1@osu.edu

Written by Jeff Grabmeier, 614-292-8457; Grabmeier.1@osu.edu

Disclaimer: AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert system.

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155 thoughts on “Climate craziness of the week: climate change likely to induce food violence

  1. Looks like another study that has it 100% wrong. It would be much more likely to see food scarcity without high levels of CO2 in the atmosphere given continued population increases.

    • Richard M says: “It would be much more likely to see food scarcity without high levels of CO2 in the atmosphere ”

      Exactly right! All food contains carbon, and all carbon in all food comes from atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. It is the base of the food chain for all Carbon Based life forms.

      All Life depends on the chemical transaction of extracting Carbon from atmospheric Carbon dioxide through photosynthesis/phytoplankton.

      The Carbon Cycle of Life cannot complete without Carbon Dioxide.

      When considered as a whole, Carbon Based Life Forms consume Carbon Dioxide.

      Carbon Dioxide is the fuel of Life.

      • Thomas, you are 99.99999(not sure how many 9’s)% correct about carbon dioxide jump-starting the food chain. However, there are entire ecosystems, including animal kingdom critters, based on the gases emitted by submarine black smokers. The first explorers to see these ecosystems were stunned, and yes, it is very dark down there and there is no photosynthesis. I wonder what a crab sucking down volcanic-gas-based plants tastes like?

      • ron long – Thank you for your reply.

        I understand what you’re saying. And yet, I will assume that those ‘entire ecosystems’ are considered Carbon Based Life Forms. And as such, they require Carbon. I will also assume that the ‘gases emitted by submarine black smokers’ contain Carbon Dioxide. I will make the claim that this ecosystem is extracting Carbon from those gases. Whether that process of carbon extraction can be considered ‘photosynthesis’ at such great ocean depth, I am not certain.

      • Thomas, the black smokers emit mostly metal sulfides and sulfates, with some calcium, magnesium, and phosphorous, and these collect into metal deposits known as volcanogenic massive sulfides. Also, the black smokers emit hydrogen, methane, and carbon dioxide (primitive carbon dioxide derived from cooling magma). The genus Archaen micro organisims actually process the sulfates and phosphates into plant-like tissue, then the food chain proceeds normally. There is no photosynthesis, this is the primitive form of life that very well may have began life on our planet. This may also represent the lifeform existing on other planets, a lifeform not likely to be touring around in spaceships.

    • Climate change will definitely cause food scarcity. They are just avoiding saying it is climate change to COLD that will be the cause.

      BTW did you notice that they added “climate shock” to the vocabulary. I guess “change” was scary enough.

    • And that a lot of the food shortages we see in the world today are the direct result of poor governments.

      • Poor government, war, civil unrest. Most of the famines in the last century are mostly human caused.

        Second, these famines weren’t caused by natural disasters like crop failures or droughts. They were man-made — the direct result of the bloody wars and insurgencies raging in all four countries. link

        For sure, in the history of mankind, there have been examples of famine caused by the climate. These days, they are mostly human caused, sometimes deliberately. link

    • Not only does CO2 increase agricultural productivity, warmer temperature and longer growing seasons do as well. The alarmists refuse to admit that more atmospheric CO2 and warming are both more beneficial to the biosphere then they are harmful to the climate, even when considering the absurdly high climate sensitivity that’s about 4x larger than the laws of physics can support. It’s undeniably clear that a balanced cost/benefit analysis would put climate alarmism on an equal footing with an Earth centric Universe. But then again, a balanced cost/benefit analysis would undermine the entire progressive agenda, of which the radical green mythology is only a tiny, but highly emotionally charged driver.

      • You write: ‘..But then again, a balanced cost/benefit analysis would undermine the entire progressive agenda, of which the radical green mythology is only a tiny, but highly emotionally charged driver…’

        The ‘green mythology’ is the VEHICLE for the progressive agenda (which is to replace Capitalism with Collectivism)!

      • The green mythology is just one of the vehicles used by the progressive agenda. Others vehicles include the divisions arising from identity politics, the flawed idea that government knows best, infiltrating the mains stream media, demonizing dissent, how populations split on how to resolve conflict between logic and emotion and disguising evil intent as benevolent actions for the greater good.

    • You wanna know what is gonna induce “food violence”? If any of these climatistas try to get me to eat worm and insect paste, like some of them were threatening not to long ago. Oh they’ll see some food violence if they try that!

    • Actually, the food riots, such as years ago in Egypt, were because of the AGW push for biofuels which has driven up the cost of care and thus other grains, starving people around the world.

      We need to cancel ALL biofuels programs and return the corn to been eaten only and the other land that has been coopted for inedible biofuel sources be returned to agriculture for food, or allowed to go back to rain forest in some areas.

      Biofuels are a broken-window economy as it takes more energy to make them than you get back when burning them. Just the wrong thing to do, but it does give the government a chance to ramp up that wonderful crony capitalism and throw billions of our tax dollars to people who have no idea how to keep track of all those many millions. So much money just seems to vaporize.

      • it’s not just bio fuels, a few months ago I noticed that my company was proudly posting around the copy room that the paper is now made from wheat rather than tree wood.

        My first reaction was “great, more people starve to death because of someone’s ignorance and they will blame it on those greedy conservatives”.

        The ridiculousness never ends.

    • Though the authors of the research made some appropriate points [in fact I made these in the previous articles] the main issue is what they mean by climate change: Is it natural variability in rainfall or global warming? In the natural variability floods and droughts play the pivotal role in food production.

      Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy

  2. Climate change caused the civil war in Syria
    Climate chage also cause Obuma to forget where he put the red line.

  3. The current worsening food and other consumables shortage situation in Venezuela indicates that governments are able to and do cause far more damage than any natural event.

    • Yes, but the question really is WHICH government is causing the damage, the one in power of the other government that has been trying to instigate a regime change? My bet would be that if the outside government that is trying to instigate a regime change would just go home and tend its own business, the one in power would find a way out of the mess and Venezuela could well find peace and prosperity.

      • Although, paranoid would come close. “Conspiracy ideation”, much? You need to talk to your pal Lewandowsky about that.

      • Like all communists, Tom relies on invisible boogey men to try and distract from his regimes failures.
        There are no outside governments trying to overthrow the Venezuelan government. Their problems are 100% home grown.

      • Who is this, Sean Penn’s Sock Puppet?

        (knocks on head) Wake UP IN THERE! SOCIALISM CAUSES FOOD VIOLENCE!!!

        Every time it is tried, in fact.

      • The Venezuelan regime’s problems are entirely self-inflicted. The only foreign interference during its tenure was support from Cuba and its own intervention in Colombia to back and provide bases for the FARC narcoterrorists.

      • VENEZUELA

        Stuck in a death spiral, Venezuela is borrowing money at any cost
        By Nick Miroff June 8, WaPo

        How did the country with the world’s largest oil reserves end up in this trash-strewn dark alley? Middling petroleum prices don’t come close to explaining it.

        It’s a whole stewing miasma of mismanagement. Currency controls that produced the world’s highest inflation rate. Capricious, ill-advised nationalization schemes. Oceanic corruption. An endless spending binge on Russian weapons, gasoline subsidies and grandiose infrastructure projects that went bust. Those are just a few reasons.

        Really, Venezuela’s most expensive habit appears to be its addiction to credit, no matter what the cost.

        https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/06/08/stuck-in-a-death-spiral-venezuela-is-borrowing-money-at-any-cost/?utm_term=.11e5b9aefb58

  4. Hey, why not? ClimateChange™ has already induced mental illnesses and emotional incontinence.

      • Actin’ correctly,
        The veg will directly
        Seek another number
        Covered in umber
        Gunk. So ‘deniers’
        Will get all the highers.
        Blimey – maybe I should have been a rapper [no ‘C”, thanks]
        Auto.

  5. Perhaps if environmentalists and profiteers didn’t convince the US to dedicate a large amount of land and 40% of the corn crop to pointlessly add ETOH to our gasoline, there would be less food shortages and less price stress in places like Africa.

    • Ten out of ten. And now if we could stop ‘bringing democracy’ to the likes of Somalia, Yemen, Syria, etc then some resources might be available to mitigate the occasional natural disaster rather than the string of man-made disasters and displacements.

      • Libya.
        You forgot Libya.
        As the UK’s ruling class have, too.

        Auto.
        Cameron had no idea about military.
        Monetary, maybe he did – but not military.
        But least bad, and at least the harm is – mostly – confined to North Africa and London Bridge.
        I am not being flippant – maudlin, more like: I cross London Bridge every day.

      • I have seen the floral tributes to the victims – many brave resisters, too.
        I hope I would react similarly if placed in the way of a loser, who will burn in hell for all eternity, smelling his (or her, possibly) own flesh burning . . .

        Auto

  6. So the wealthier, food producing, politically stable governments are able the deal with climate caused food shortages. Who’d have thunk?

    • Hmmm, that seems to leave the US out since it certainly isn’t wealthier, produces less food, and isn’t showing real political stability towards managing itself as a nation or neighbor.

      • Wow Tom, would you please describe the color of the sky in your world, because it bears no relationship to the world the rest of us live in.

      • Tom O,
        Only your second post and you have doubled down on stupid. I can’t wait to see what other gems of wisdom you have left down thread.

  7. An study about the impact of climate by political science academics in the Journal of Peace Research. What could go wrong with that?

  8. As Sun cycles 24-27 take the planet into a new grand minimum..I expect there will be more crop failures and the inability to plant crops until too late into the normal growth year.

    • yup thats my worry
      last yr i lost a crop of oats to flooding
      this yr it was too dry early on and now its so wet i cant get tractor in
      add a probable mouse plague coming to eat anything i might get planted either as seed or as grown later,
      and im going to plant pasture instead.
      gave up on food for humans this yr

      • Oz: sorry for your troubles. Time to go a huntin’. Perhaps, like the gent from Maine who had similar troubles, you’ll cross a stream and spot a deer off to your left, then another to the right. Taking careful aim at the rock midway between and squeezing that trigger, you’ll split the rock and kill both deer. The kick from the gun will propel you back into the stream, knocking you out when your head hits a rock. When you come to, your right hand will be on an otter’s head, your left on a beaver’s tail, and your trouser pockets will be so full of trout that a button will pop off your fly and kill a partridge. :)

      • Benben is right, consider the Irish Potato Famine. Climate change caused the famine and over a million people died and another million immigrated. Over 40% of the population of Ireland was lost in only four years!!!

        Oh, wait…that took place in 1845 when the climate was yet unspoiled by man.

        How about those Egyptian famines we always heard about in….uhh, the Bible…never mind.

        I got it. There was the Great Famine of 1315-1317, no that won’t work..how about the Great Famine of 1590…no, the Great Famine of 1620…no, the famine of 1742…no…

        Damn, it looks like the weather has been changing and causing crop failures for as long as there have been crops. But what about man made climate change???

        /sarc

      • Absolutely Mark
        Up until 1880 the climate was so stable that:
        …you could set your watch by it
        …there were never any droughts
        …there were never any tornados
        …there were never any hurricanes
        …there were never any floods
        …there were never any heat waves or cold snaps
        …first NH snow always fell on Nov 3rd
        …last NH snow always fell on April 3rd
        …Punxsutawney Phil couldn’t predict the end of winter (always 6 weeks between Feb 2 and the spring equinox)
        …the temp was never higher than 85f in the summer, and never colder than 19f in the winter
        …the Arctic ice pack never melted in the summer nor grew in the winter
        …Polar Bear populations numbered in the hundreds of thousands
        …the 3 magic words “Sea Level Rise” had never been used in a sentence together

  9. How many people got publication creds for stating the obvious: at strong (effective?) government does better than a weak one. I suppose if you add climate change, climate shock and other buzz words stating the obvious becomes novel research.
    I searched for climate shock and learned someone had written a book with that name. Something about the effects of a hotter world. So, I did learn something from this, it looks like the hotter planet hysteria was bundled into a book and given a name to add to the lexicon.

  10. They seem to be talking about weather, here – that stuff we used not to have until we began to use fossil fuels.

  11. the combination of the two risk factors is even more dangerous than they would be separately……

    They never qualify this crap…….How much more?…..0.000001%

    • Actually it is infinitely more dangerous.
      Separately, neither is much of a risk factor.
      One can grow their own food or one can buy it. This is why weather related crop failures have never caused a famine in an industrialized capitalist society. When wealthy societies fail to grow their own food, they merely purchase it from someone else.
      In nations with failed economic and political systems, the people are impoverished, can not buy food and must produce their own. Any time they fail, famine ensues.
      The reason there is hunger is not because there is not enough food, it is because people have no money to buy food.
      The key to eliminating world hunger therefore is not climate, because in any climate, periodic crop failures occur (it’s called weather). The key is to not to adopt policies that inhibit industrialization, prevent the creation of wealth, or confiscate and squander the nations wealth so that when food production is insufficient they can not purchase food… the exact opposite of the policies that the green blob endorses. (Politicians and academics such as the one in the article who propose economic solutions while rejecting the principles of economics have the same track record as people who build bridges while rejecting the principles of engineering).

      As a farmer, I can tell you that my per acre food production has roughly doubled in the last 25 years, mostly due to technology. If it were cost effective, it could be doubled again. It isn’t even close to being cost effective to spend more on inputs, adopt more labor intensive practices or dig wells for irrigation at $5/bushel wheat, at $20/bushel it is. The problem is that the hungry don’t have the $5, let alone the $20 to buy my wheat. If the areas of the world where hunger is an issue were more productive and wealthy, they would be well fed.

      • Not necessarily. Despots figured out a long time ago that, with reasonable probability, a hungry populace hasn’t enough energy to rise over and topple him.

  12. “We’ve already started to see climate change as an issue that won’t just put the coasts under water, but as something that could cause food riots in some parts of the world,”

    And what of the record yields and harvests?

    Global crop yields hit record levels, according to United Nations data.
    http://dailycaller.com/2017/01/19/2016s-record-warmth-brought-record-crop-yields-fewer-storms/

    The money quote is “Development aid is important now and it is likely to be even more important in the future as we look for ways to increase climate resilience,”
    https://news.osu.edu/news/2017/06/08/climate-food-violence/

    • And just what exactly is “climate resilience”???? And how do we increase it? I wonder if they are talking about other peoples money! Naw.

  13. I assume the taxpayers funded this cr@p.
    Trump needs to stop the nonsense of this waste of resources.

  14. When poly-sci people start to talk I quit listening, they are worse at predicting the future than economists

  15. Let’s see now – they assume something not true – that global warming leads to more floods and droughts, and then disregard the beneficial effects of higher levels of CO2 on crop growth, and, being from an agricultural state, they naturally disregard the beneficial effects of genetic breeding. And there you have a paper that is 100% wrong.

  16. I wonder if they see more socialism coming up as means to control the masses.
    After all, in socialism you wait on the bread. In capitalism, the bread waits on you!

  17. “violence related to food scarcity” ?? Do these people live on a different planet ? The Earth is “Greening” from extra CO2 …

    • In support of Butch’s comment.

      Hello. The following quantifies the plant benefits for increased CO2.

      Big surprise: The increase in atmospheric CO2 is environmentally beneficial !!! Commercial greenhouses inject CO2 into their greenhouses to increase yield, C3 plants require less water when CO2 increase, higher CO2 levels hence results in less desertification.

      Increased atmospheric CO2 is a good thing, not a bad thing.

      level to which the CO2 concentration should be raised depends on the crop, light intensity, temperature, ventilation, stage of the crop growth and the economics of the crop. For most crops the saturation point will be reached at about 1,000–1,300 ppm under ideal circumstances.

      The increase in atmospheric CO2 has two benefits: 1) Increased plant growth and higher yields (including cereals and grains) by roughly 50% and 2) Reduction in plant loss of water due to less trans-respiration.

      C3 plants (trees, cereal crops, and shrubs) lose roughly 50% of the water they absorb due to trans-respiration (loss of water from the plant’s stomata.) When CO2 rises C3 plants produce less stomata which reduces water loss in the plant. This results in more water at the root of the plant which enables synergistic bacteria on the roots to produce more nitrogen byproducts which increases plant growth.

      A higher level of atmospheric CO2 enables plants to make more effective use of water and enables the plant to survive in regions of low water such as deserts. Higher levels of atmospheric CO2 are beneficial net significantly beneficial to the biosphere.

      http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/english/crops/facts/00-077.htm

      Ontario, Canada Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs
      Carbon Dioxide In Greenhouses
      The benefits of carbon dioxide supplementation on plant growth and production within the greenhouse environment have been well understood for many years

      For the majority of greenhouse crops, net photosynthesis increases as CO2 levels increase from 340–1,000 ppm (parts per million). Most crops show that for any given level of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), increasing the CO2 level to 1,000 ppm will increase the photosynthesis by about 50% over ambient CO2 levels.

      The level to which the CO2 concentration should be raised depends on the crop, light intensity, temperature, ventilation, stage of the crop growth and the economics of the crop. For most crops the saturation point will be reached at about 1,000–1,300 ppm under ideal circumstances.

      http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2003/05/030509084556.htm

      Greenhouse Gas Might Green Up The Desert; Weizmann Institute Study Suggests That Rising Carbon Dioxide Levels Might Cause Forests To Spread Into Dry Environments

      The Weizmann team found, to its surprise, that the Yatir forest is a substantial “sink” (CO2-absorbing site): its absorbing efficiency is similar to that of many of its counterparts in more fertile lands. These results were unexpected since forests in dry regions are considered to develop very slowly, if at all, and thus are not expected to soak up much carbon dioxide (the more rapidly the forest develops the more carbon dioxide it needs, since carbon dioxide drives the production of sugars). However, the Yatir forest is growing at a relatively quick pace, and is even expanding further into the desert.

      Plants need carbon dioxide for photosynthesis, which leads to the production of sugars. But to obtain it, they must open pores in their leaves and consequently lose large quantities of water to evaporation. The plant must decide which it needs more: water or carbon dioxide. Yakir suggests that the 30 percent increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide since the start of the industrial revolution eases the plant’s dilemma. Under such conditions, the plant doesn’t have to fully open the pores for carbon dioxide to seep in – a relatively small opening is sufficient. Consequently, less water escapes the plant’s pores. This efficient water preservation technique keeps moisture in the ground, allowing forests to grow in areas that previously were too dry.

      http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/07/090731-green-sahara.html

      The green shoots of recovery are showing up on satellite images of regions including the Sahel, a semi-desert zone bordering the Sahara to the south that stretches some 2,400 miles (3,860 kilometers).
      Images taken between 1982 and 2002 revealed extensive regreening throughout the Sahel, according to a new study in the journal Biogeosciences.

      The study suggests huge increases in vegetation in areas including central Chad and western Sudan.
      In the eastern Sahara area of southwestern Egypt and northern Sudan, new trees—such as acacias—are flourishing, according to Stefan Kröpelin, a climate scientist at the University of Cologne’s Africa Research Unit in Germany.

      “Shrubs are coming up and growing into big shrubs. This is completely different from having a bit more tiny grass,” said Kröpelin, who has studied the region for two decades.

      • Great iformative post. However, there also appears to be some controversy here. Check out this story out of Stanford: http://news.stanford.edu/pr/02/jasperplots124.html which claims increased CO2 can actually reduce plant growth (from 2002). On the other hand a remoted sensing study conducted at MIT found that the amount of increased vegetation, inferred to be due to the rise in CO2 levels, going from 1970 to dateof study (2015?) was equivalent to the 2x amount of vegetation over the area of the United States. Can’t find a link to the this later story.

      • Kenneth N. Shonk says: “Check out this story … which claims increased CO2 can actually reduce plant growth”

        From the linked article:

        “The three-factor combination of increased temperature, precipitation and nitrogen deposition produced the largest stimulation [an 84 percent increase], but adding CO2 reduced this to 40 percent,” Shaw and her colleagues wrote.

        So plant growth still increased with the additional CO2, but not at the same rate is what they claim. Is that “reducing plant growth”?

      • In reply to: Kenneth N. Shonk
         
        Hello. You are quoting a cult of CAGW fake scientific study where the objective of their “experiment” is to provide political support for the cult’s agenda, as opposed to providing scientific data and analysis for us to determine the benefits of CO2 Vs the risk of CAGW.

        A quote from the pitiful, fake study:

        “actually reduces plant growth when combined with other likely consequences of climate change — namely, higher temperatures, increased precipitation (William: What the heck? They meant to say less precipitation) or increased nitrogen deposits in the soil (William: Why again? The actual argument is there is insufficient nitrogen available for increased grow due to the increased CO2, that is incorrect, see desert link).”

        It is a fact that increased CO2 causes increased plant grow (roughly 50% increase). That is the reason commercial greenhouses purchase and install equipment and burn natural gas to inject CO2 into their greenhouses.

        The cult of CAGW reduced the amount of water provided to the test plants and big surprise, there was less increase in plant growth due to the increased CO2. Their justification is there will be more draughts due to CAGW.

        Increased nitrogen does not reduce plant growth, it increases plant growth.

        The inaccurately written, sciency summary meant to say that if there was insufficient nitrogen available to the plant, the plant could not take advantage of the increased CO2. That was the cult of CAGW’s argument.

        That assertion has been proven incorrect, by experiments and by the fact there is unequivocal evidence of a significant increase in plant growth on the entire planet.

        The increase in atmospheric CO2 is a good thing, not a bad thing.

        “actually reduces plant growth when combined with other likely consequences of climate change — namely, higher temperatures, increased precipitation (William: What the heck?) or increased nitrogen deposits in the soil (William: Why again? The actual argument is there is insufficient nitrogen available for increased grow due to the increased CO2, that is incorrect, see desert link).”

  18. Climate change has caused me to get older! Urika! If we can all stop driving I will get younger! No mechanism required. Just short term correlation and bad-ass dialed-in guesses about future scenarios. Who do I call to get my next grant? I could use a new computer, phone, and office.

    • I was kinda counting on the last Liberal Government to but everyone a Tesla so that they could claim ending the need for Gas and Oil in the transportation industry. Well, at least I’m not stuck with a Pacer or Grimlin or Pinto

  19. Starts off suggesting and then elevates to demonstrating. Actually bad autocratic governments don’t have any problem with such riots. e. g. North Korea.

  20. Another report about something that doesn’t exist causing something that doesn’t exist.

  21. What is amazing about this “prediction” tactic is how very easy it is to see through them. PiperPaul (above) is right. Only a delusional/brain or emotionally-impaired person would be fooled by:

    Start.

    Step 1: Run “Look” Macro {Look around for a bad thing that is either:

    A. Just getting underway

    or

    B. Almost certain to occur in the normal course of things}

    Step 2: Run “Write” Macro {Write a little article stating that human CO2 caused the bad thing.}

    “Goal” = “Goal” + 1.

    Repeat Until “Goal” = 1,000,000.

    Run “Find New Globalization Excuse.”

    End.

    • Hi Janice,
      Just a few problems here. You wrote:
      “Goal” = “Goal” + 1
      ERROR: Undefined/Uninitialized variable!

      You could write something like this:
      Start.
      “Goal” = 0
      Step 1: Run “Look” Macro

      But look carefully: The declaration of “Goal” is within the loop, so “Goal” gets reset to 0 on every pass. So “goal” never gets to 1,000,000. This is an infinite loop that will run forever, until forcibly terminated.

      Of course, this seems to be exactly the situation we have today, anyway.
      Cheers!

      • Thank — you, TONY L, for correcting my syntax. Lol, I was just trying to create a “sort of” code example, there. I like your endless loop dealio — good one. (but, you know that I would never initialize my variables inside a loop!!!!).

      • you know that I would never initialize my variables inside a loop!

        Of course, I understand you know better.
        One guy I worked with, accidentally initialized inside a loop. When I found his error, he thought about it for a minute, then declared “When I initialize a variable, it stays initialized!”.
        Another guy did not initialize his variables at all. That made for interesting randomness.

        Been doing a fair bit of R programming lately, highly recommended.

      • I’d assume that “Goal” was a self-instantiating and intializing variable …..

      • ” I was just trying to create a “sort of” code example, there”

        Ahhh .. Its Uni exam marking time down here. :-)

      • And AndyG! :) I knew that you are a math professor. THAT is why I said something like “how’s school going.” Not a demotion — just a little communication glitch. OKAY?
        :)

  22. I am even more depressed now about the state of academic research in the U.S. Did these “scholars” bother to look at data on global crop production in recent year. Production of virtually all edible grains is at or near record high. Countries are running out of storage (rats must be feasting). More important, did these shaman even look at historical weather and crop production records. You would think anyone researching weather and crop yields at Ohio State University would know that agricultural production and prices for agricultural commodities are highly variable. That is why future markets for agricultural commodities are common around the world, and why governments in many countries, including the U.S., maintain strategic reserves for many agricultural commodities. You would think they would have learned some lessons from the failed prophecies of “Population Bomb” Paul Ehrlich.

  23. ‘“Climate-induced food scarcity is going to become an increasingly big issue and we wanted to understand which countries are most threatened by it,” he said.’

    – Governments produce no food.

    – This is from the Jimmy Carter School of Economics, where Jimmah said, “Only government can fairly manage scarcity.” To which Ronald Reagan said, “Screw that, we’re America! We’ll make more!”

    “crucial to breaking the link between food insecurity and violence”

    I guess it must exist somewhere, they wouldn’t have made it up.

    ‘weak political institutions’

    Back to what climate change is really about: establishing strong political institutions. ‘Climate change’ is just a threat to get people to accept it.

  24. Was there a contest to see who could fit the most garbage into a single study? I think they might have a winner here.

  25. Only an imbecile would look at the past 30 years of US food grain production and figure that there will be food riots due to global warming, now ice age I would bet on it.

    • Or even the last 30 years of world wide food production. Hunger world wide is the lowest since people have been tracking that piece of data.

  26. I’ve got a wonderful idea! Assuming against all common sense that “Climate Shock(tm)” is going to harm food production, let’s turn 40% of our corn crop into ethanol and mandate that people burn it in their automobiles. That should really improve the worldwide food situation.

    • Hold on let me see if there is investment opportunity in government mandated ethanol, yep, okay it is a wonderful idea that will save the planet.

  27. More nonsense from the cornucopia of “Climate change causes everything, and everything causes climate change.”

    • More nonsense from the cornucopia of “Climate change causes everything bad, and everything we can tax causes climate change.”

      Just a couple additions.

  28. This one is so silly it wasn’t worth posting. ‘..expected to cause…. but government is already preventing…’ is a typical way of dreamy thinking that happens when herbal inhalations are deep and any reflective thinking is not required. But it is the stuff of dreams and fictions both undreamt and unwritten… the silliness of slack minds. Magical thinking requires it… or maybe not,.. it’s just magical.

  29. Food is scarce under communism. The Pilgrims almost died of famine in their first years when they practiced a naive socialism. The rite of Thanksgiving celebrates their conversion to capitalism.

  30. Has there been a single case of “climate change induced” crop failure/ food scarcity? Is there any verified documentation of regions changing their planting times, crops, etc due to climate change? have there been year to year crop reductions/ failures directly related to “climate change”?

    Please don’t cite a flood or drought as those events are simply weather.

    Unless these studies can eliminate the govt and wealth equations from the study, it’s all meaningless.

    Example: Zimbabwe was once called the breadbasket of Africa, it produced enough food to feed most of the continent. Due to mismanagement at the govt level, it now barely feeds its own people.
    Ethiopia – the starvation was caused by ineffective government, more than weather.

    Point is, the answer to food security is stable govt, regardless of any potential “climate changes” whether natural or erroneously applied the human released CO2.

    • The Mayan civilization collapsed after a seven year hard drought. Now, that was before we had “climate change” so maybe it doesn’t count.

  31. We are in the Nu Dark Age. The luddites outnumber us, but at least we’ve got reality on our side.

    • Okay, but the next over reach administration may act to outlaw reality by executive decree in the early days after taking office. Such action will be supported by numerous beltway think tank studies to back it up and a NYT survey.

  32. Who pays for this kind of useless study? No, don’t tell me. I am afraid I already know the answer.

    • I wonder also whether the authors ever get any kind of reality check or feedback on the idiocy of what they write. They will never improve if they live in an impermeable bubble.

  33. If food shortages sufficient to cause rioting occurs, it won’t be due to global warming or climate change. It will be due, as history has repeatedly shown, to dictators and other totalitarian governments maipulating their economies to suit political ends, and their continual process of taking from the working people the just fruits of their labor.

  34. Speaking of Crazies, in case anyone missed it, here’s Chris Wallace interviewing Al Gore (June 4th). Just watch before having your lunch.

    • I should add, Gore admits the Paris agreement is useless:

      WALLACE: “You would agree that even if all 195 nations, now 194, met their targets, it still wouldn’t solve the problem.”

      GORE: “That is correct. However, it sends a very powerful signal to business and industry and civil society, and countries around the world.”

      • GORE: “That is correct. However, it sends a very powerful signal to business and industry and civil society, and countries around the world.”

        Now that is as clear a case of virtue signaling as I have ever witnessed!

      • GORE: “That is correct. However, it sends a very powerful signal to business and industry and civil society, and countries around the world.”
        I hear it as mostly reassurance to the corrupt people in positions of power around the world who stand to gain from a massive scam signaling, myself, J Mac. It’s not like he can just say something along those lines (publicly), ya know?
        (I really and truly don’t believe Mr. Gore is trying to save me ; )

  35. I find it surprising that in these modern times where cause & effect are so easily interchangeable, no-0ne seems to have, in any way, considered that the growing of food might be changing the climate.

    But then, we all learned in school that plants just keep jumping up out of the ground, begging to be cut, burned, eaten, arobically gestated and *all* they need to sustain them and maintain this bounty, is a puff of carbon dioxide.
    Especially trees and/or biomass. Cut & burn the trees, new ones grow and because the burned ones make CO2, the new ones grow even faster. So you can cut & burn more of the still standing ones and before you know it, the new ones will have grown before you cut the old ones.
    A fool-proof plan – what’s not to like?

    On the riot side..
    There is in the UK a rather small and select group of people. Government regulation has made them this way because of the important yet very hazardous job they do.
    They drive petrol tankers around British roads, delivering to petrol stations around the country.
    They are not dumb, have learned about their special status and the union they are all members of has negotiated very lucrative pay & working conditions for them.
    But, its like free money. Enough is never enough and their union is rather fractious outfit, *always* looking out to improve pay/conditions for its hard-done-by members.
    So, every now and again they threaten to go on strike so as to improve their lot, but first, they organise a ballot of members.

    Within hours of news of just the ballot, there are queues miles long at petrol stations, touts selling fuel at 10 times the going rate and, if the weather’s nice, fights will be breaking out.
    Just at the mention of the tankers drivers holding a ballot with a view to going on strike.

    And where’s our ‘strong’ government? Doing an effin Hillary right now, turning a huge majority into A Fail.
    Why has is become so necessary these days for everyone to pi55 on everyone else’s parade?

  36. This time you are taking the mickey out of us, Anthony, surely. I note there is a disclaimer attached to the report: accuracy not guaranteed. It’s not April 1st!

  37. Oh come on you guys…Power plants, powered by magical Unicorn Farts are the wave of the future, everybody knows that…right ?

  38. ” climate change… could cause food riots in some parts of the world” As long as In-N-Out trucks can still get their supplies to their stores, we’ll be OK.

  39. Of course it will have nothing to do with growing food to convert into fuel if people are going to be hungry.
    We’ve got to save the planet for the children!

    James Bull

  40. What an idiot. CO2 helps plants and the world is getting greener by satellite data plus crop yields are rising. Despite no statistically significant change in global temperature for two decades now, a rise in temperature would increase the growing season and push back frost dates, lets grow potatoes in Greenland again. A drop in CO2 by 100 ppm instead of rise would have likely wiped out 1/3 of vegetation on planet. CO2 is a socially beneficial gas promoting a green earth, not a pollutant which will cause hell to break loose. Food riots and political instability because of CO2 – what are these idiots teaching naive youth in college classrooms?

  41. If you want to see continental and global scale famine, look at the Little Ice Age.

    Cold kills directly and by starvation.

  42. I seem to remember this same line of argument in the Population Bomb nonsense a half century ago.

  43. If one looks objectively at the data and history, it is communism, socialism, and dictatorships that cause and have caused more food scarcity and starvation not to mention the actual murdering of “citizens” than “man-made climate change”.

    Cheers,

    Joe

  44. Cold climate change causes food shortages, starvation, and violent actions to get sustenance.

    • Exactly, temps where I live have dropped around 25 degrees F below average over the last 2 days, and are forecast to stay well below average for 3 more days. I started my tomatoes early under t-5 fluorescents, and already have tomatoes on the vine. Most other gardens in the area will see their plants set back a week or two because of this. There was also one night of rain on Wednesday where it rained most of the night. There has been scattered showers since then. This is a night and day sea change from the last 6 years in this area. …http://www.intellicast.com/Local/ObservationsSummary.aspx?location=USCA0307

  45. The best way to prevent food violence is with affluence, allowing people to afford food.
    Confiscatory taxation affects semi-discretionary items (such as highly nutritious foods) of the household budget first, forcing people to spend less on less healthy alternatives (e.g. junk food).
    Unfortunately government programs to deal with ‘climate change’ all require increases in confiscatory taxation to fund the redirection of wealth to projects (and entrepreneurs) of dubious effectiveness.

  46. I didn’t read through all the previous comments, and maybe someone else stated it, but just in case not, here’s my 2 cents:

    Climate alarmism likely to induce food violence.

    Okay, that’s the headline. Now the rest of you can fill in the details.

  47. I can’t disagree with the premise that Governments and politics are definitely involved with “Climate alarmism”.

  48. Food violence will start when Brawndo is used to irrigate crops. Then burrito wrappers will become scarce.

    Some parts of Idiocracy have come true.

  49. Aw, crap, we only ordered a gross [1], but with all these IPCC types running all over creation, saving the planet left and right, why, hell, we’ve run plum out of Nobel Peace Prizes, again. Would someone please order another crate?

    [1] 1 gross = 12 dozen = 144

    • Oh, and please order a crate of those magnets that let their mom’s display their awards on their refrigerators. Each Nobel Peace Prize winner gets 1 (and only 1) commemorative refrigerator magnet.

  50. Bear F. Braumoeller (Ph.D., University of Michigan) is Associate Professor and Director of Graduate Studies in the Department of Political Science....and he is a past Councilor of the Peace Science Society...

    http://www.braumoeller.info/

  51. Gee, didn’t Paul Ehrlich write this book in 1968 and then again 1990. According to him we all should have starved to death or died fighting over food by now. About the only place people are starving to death are radical socialist countries like Venezuela and failed Islamic states like Somalia. We produce now and will in the future enough food to feed the planet. Problem has always been in distribution not quantity, The fighting has been all about who controlled a plentiful supply. The UN FAO listed obesity as a major health problem in the world.

  52. I believe that the clearest example of human-induced famine can be found in Venezuela. A completely mismanaged government run by an incompetent successor to a greedy thug has resulted in a financial implosion that leaves store shelves bare of basic foodstuff ingredients like flour. The Maduro government can’t afford to import enough things like corn, and soybeans and wheat to feed the population. I won’t go into the lack of simple medicinals like aspirin or hygiene products.
    That disaster has nothing to do with climate. It has everything to do with crappy politics and corrupt politicians.
    And since Venezuela is on the western edge of the Amazon rainforest, the concept that carbon might somehow be at fault in this monstrosity foisted on the Venezuelan people is pure, unadulterated hypocrisy.
    Another good example of mismanagement is North Korea. At least of the population is, frankly, teetering on the edge of starving to death because Kim Jong-un spends the money he steals from other countries on missiles and weaponry, and the Chinese are losing patience with him. This, too, has little to do with climate or carbon, because there are few, if any, vehicles in North Korea that do not belong to the government, and all food aid is relabeled as North Korean, especially if it comes from the USA.
    It is bad management all around, NOT carbon, and NOT climate.

  53. reading the first few lines if this article, I wanted to ask, what political science might be. A self-ironic science or the UN-University. After reading to the end, it’s worse than I thought.

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