From YALE UNIVERSITY, another science paper that cites one of the worst ever science fiction movies. Sigh…
Study finds potential instability in Atlantic Ocean water circulation system
New Haven, Conn. – One of the world’s largest ocean circulation systems may not be as stable as today’s weather models predict, according to a new study.
In fact, changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) — the same deep-water ocean current featured in the movie “The Day After Tomorrow” — could occur quite abruptly, in geologic terms, the study says. The research appears in the Jan. 4 online edition of the journal Science Advances.
“We show that the possibility of a collapsed AMOC under global warming is hugely underestimated,” said Wei Liu, a postdoctoral associate in the Department of Geology and Geophysics at Yale University and lead author of the study. Liu began the research when he was a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and continued it at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, prior to coming to Yale.
AMOC is responsible for carrying oceanic heat northward in the Atlantic Ocean. It consists of a lower limb of denser, colder water that flows south, and an upper limb of warm, salty water that flows north. The system is a major factor for regional climate change, affecting the Atlantic rim countries, especially those in Europe.
“In current models, AMOC is systematically biased to be in a stable regime,” Liu said. “A bias-corrected model predicts a future AMOC collapse with prominent cooling over the northern North Atlantic and neighboring areas. This has enormous implications for regional and global climate change.”
A collapse of the AMOC system, in Liu’s model, would cool the Northern Atlantic Ocean, cause a spreading of Arctic sea ice, and move tropical Atlantic rain belts farther south.
While a calamity on the order of the fictional plot of “The Day After Tomorrow” is not indicated, the researchers said a significant weather change could happen quickly in the next few centuries.
“It’s a very provocative idea,” said study co-author Zhengyu Liu, professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, and of environmental studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison Center for Climatic Research in the Nelson Institute. “For me it’s a 180-degree turn because I had been thinking like everyone else.”
The researchers stressed that their new model may require additional refinement, as well. They said detailed information about water salinity, ocean temperature, and melting ice — over a period of decades — is essential to the accuracy of AMOC models.
The researchers also noted the major impact that climate change itself has on AMOC patterns. Additional carbon dioxide, for example, warms the cold water of the North Atlantic. Such developments would have an impact on AMOC behavior, the researchers said.
###
Other co-authors of the study are Shang-Ping Xie of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and Jiang Zhu of the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
The National Science Foundation, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China funded the research
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CO2 does everything, don’tcha know? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vdl3TRxv0c
for attention of the new USA administration
Chinese infiltrated US universities, used USA taxpayers money to fund research under directions of People’s Republic of China.
Fear not Russia, they’ll never catch up with Chinese.
Details :
Wei Liu of Yale University
Shang-Ping Xie of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Jiang Zhu of the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
the research is funded by:
The National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of Energy
and Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China
(the above is a sarcastic comment, but you can take it anyway you like)
Not the myth about ” How its the North Atlantic Drift that keeps europe warm” again.
lf we have some Greenland blocking this winter, just watch how quickly this myth gets busted.
There is no “myth re: The Gulf Stream as it is of course real. The problem I have is with those that are still talking about the THC (thermohaline Circulation), now disguised as the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC for short). It is a “myth” as Oceanographer Dr. Carl Wunsch asserts. There is no known mechanism that has salt and temperature as driving ocean circulation. The wind with all its derived capacities is the main driver.
“The wind with all its derived capacities is the main driver.”
The wind is only responsible for the west to east flow, not south to north.
As shown above on a post further up, there is ice free water a thousand miles north of 45N that has nothing to do with normal flow of winds. The AMOC brings the warmer water up to the Artic ocean, otherwise with normal flow it would move west to east from Canada to Spain across the 45N line shown below.
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif
“journal Science Advances.” But not ‘make it up as you go along’ climate science’ ..
What the hell was peer review doing on this paper ? Playing the guitar ?
“Playing the guitar ?
No… banjo. And all the taxpayers must “squeal like a pig.”
As a American the proudest my moment in the movie was the beeping Newfoundland buoy on the computer screen. ONLY JOKING! Proudest moment was actually the plot of the triple polar sharknados on the computer screen that — oddly — were precisely circular despite the fact that they were plotted near the top of a Mercator map. ONLY JOKING! It was actually the use of computer models to ‘precisely’ predict global circulation months in advance. ONLY JOKING! It was actually the Statue of Liberty remaining erect through a tsunami that would have toppled a mountain ridge. Oh, the choices.
I’ve seen worse sci-fi movies.
The race to the bottom is furiously competitive.
Worse ones include:
2012 (neutrinos evolve!)
Transcendence (a blond terrorist murders scientists then becomes the film’s heroine)
“The” arrival (not the latest “Arrival” although that too is crap) aliens disguised as Mexicans blow CO2 to heat up the planet
Tropic Thunder (Tug Lightspeed saves the world from splitting in half 5 times – at least its only parody).
Event horizon (a spaceship approaches light speed and goes to hell)
“We show that the possibility of the return of Gozer the Gozerian, who will wreak havoc on our civilization, is hugely underestimated,”
I just picked a better movie.
Greenland is melting away? Has anyone bothered to let it know?
http://beta.dmi.dk/uploads/tx_dmidatastore/webservice/b/m/s/d/e/accumulatedsmb.png
Another computer model GIGO
Back to real science. Seeing total eclipse of the sun is an event that is hard to forget. If you live in the USA and have never seen one (I consider myself lucky to have seen two in clear cloudless skies) now is the time to plan where to be on Monday, Aug. 21, 2017
(double click on the map to enlarge)
Agreed! Booked for the night in La Grande, OR, travel to Baker City, OR, the next morning to take in the event! Hoping for clear skies ……
I am reading a lot about biases, and “correcting” because of biases, but my question is, “What is the basis for determining a … bias … in the first place, if not another precursor … bias … usurping it ?
One bias seems to ascend to the pedestal of the index bias upon which a correction is adjusted from the alleged bias necessitating it. In other words, how do you determine if something is biased, without applying another bias to determine it ? And why is the determining bias the correct bias ?
I’m sure there is a convincing mathematical argument whose symbols I cannot understand to explain it, but I bet there is an equally convincing mathematical argument whose symbols I cannot understand to rebut that explanation. I should have stuck with math, so that I could play with the rest of the children in that advanced sandbox. (^_^)
schitzree (or anybody else): How do you make the inverted question mark (¿)?
Question to anyone who may know:
Since Earth has been warmer than the current time, and has had higher CO2 concentrations than current concentrations, is there any evidence that Europe has been extremely cold at the same time the rest of the world was very warm?
From YALE UNIVERSITY, another science paper:
Study finds potential instability in Atlantic Ocean water circulation system
New Haven, Conn. – One of the world’s largest ocean circulation systems may not be as stable as today’s weather models predict, according to a new study.
‘The researchers stressed that their new model may require additional refinement, as well. !! They said detailed information about water salinity, ocean temperature, and melting ice — over a period of decades — is essential to the accuracy of AMOC models. !!
____________________________________________
– So what for god’s sakes ‘detailed informations’ DO those researchers run on their ‘refined models’ –
when not
‘about water salinity, ocean temperature, and melting ice — over a period of decades —’ ?