Another ridiculous 'canary in the coal mine' claim: 'Record hot year may be the new normal by 2025'

Record hot year may be the new normal by 2025

No matter what we do, it is inevitable that the record hot year of 2015 will soon become an average year

From the UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES (home of the Ship of Fools)

The hottest year on record globally in 2015 could be just another average year by 2025 if carbon emissions continue to rise at their current rate, according to new research published in the Bulletin of American Meteorological Society.

And no matter what action we take, human activities had already locked in a “new normal” for global average temperatures that would occur no later than 2040, according to lead author Dr Sophie Lewis, from the Australian National University (ANU) hub of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS).

However, while annual global average temperatures were locked in, it was still possible with immediate and strong action on carbon emissions to prevent record breaking seasons from becoming average – at least at regional levels.

“If we continue with business-as-usual emissions, extreme seasons will inevitably become the norm within decades and Australia will be the canary in the coal mine that will experience this change first,” said Dr Lewis.

“That means the record hot summer of 2013 in Australia – when we saw temperatures approaching 50°C in parts of Australia, bushfires striking the Blue Mountains in October, major impacts to our health and infrastructure and a summer that was so hot it became known as the “angry summer” – could be just another average summer season by 2035.

“But if we reduce emissions drastically to the lowest pathway recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (RCP2.8), then we will never enter a new normal state for extreme seasons at a regional level in the 21st Century .”

The idea of what the term “new normal” actually means was the cornerstone of this new research. It has often been used when talking about climate change but it had seldom been clearly defined. Dr Lewis and colleagues have now developed a scientific definition for the term.

“Based on a specific starting point, we determined a new normal occurred when at least half of the years following a record year were cooler and half warmer. Only then can a new normal state be declared,” she said.

After this process was used by the researchers to determine new normal conditions for global average temperatures, it was used again to examine record hot seasonal temperatures at a regional level.

Using the National Computational Infrastructure supercomputer at ANU to run climate models, the researchers explored when new normal states would appear under the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s four emissions pathways.

The research team then examined seasonal temperatures from December to February across Australia, Europe, Asia and North America.

The results revealed that while global average temperatures would inevitably enter a new normal under all emissions scenarios, this wasn’t the case at seasonal and regional levels.

“It gives us hope to know that if we act quickly to reduce greenhouse gases, seasonal extremes might never enter a new normal state in the 21st Century at regional levels for the Southern Hemisphere summer and Northern Hemisphere winter,” Dr Lewis said.

“But if If we don’t act quickly Australia’s “angry summer” of 2013 may soon be regarded as mild. Imagine for a moment, if a summer season like 2013 became average. The likely impacts of an extremely hot year in 2035 would beyond anything our society has experienced.”

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Joel Snider
November 7, 2016 1:21 pm

As I understand it, temperatures have barely fluctuated for two decades – which, by definition, would make 2015 an ‘average’ year – at least for the last twenty or so – separated, of course, by a couple hundredths of a degree.

Reply to  Joel Snider
November 7, 2016 2:56 pm

This was true until Karl changed the way we average temperatures worldwide. With one swoop of a pen, the temperature increased.

David
Reply to  lorcanbonda
November 7, 2016 3:03 pm

I for one am certainly interested in warmer averages…

MarkW
Reply to  lorcanbonda
November 7, 2016 3:05 pm

I for one have no interest in your average warmer.

Joel Snider
Reply to  lorcanbonda
November 8, 2016 3:05 pm

‘This was true until Karl changed the way we average temperatures worldwide. With one swoop of a pen, the temperature increased.’
Yeah. He did that and then he quit, as I recall.

TA
Reply to  Joel Snider
November 7, 2016 5:41 pm

Your understanding is perfect, Joel. When they say “hottest year evah!”, think “margin of error of the measuring instrument”.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Joel Snider
November 7, 2016 6:42 pm

There is no effing average temperature!! Arrrgh!! It’s meaningless! Both sides of the “debate” do this crap and it’s infuriating.

Reply to  Jeff Alberts
November 7, 2016 11:29 pm

That’s the trick they play with all this Jeff, the idea they can fabricate meaningless metrics, then present meaningful statistical moments based on them and get away with it.
Beyond that trickery, they pick an an increasing measure (such as temperature during a known 10,000+ year warming trend) and tie it to some other increasing measure, such as pork belly prices. The more creative and sarcastic choose a measure that decreases consistently as the supposed dependent measure increases, for instance the number of Caribbean pirates. No attempt is made to show the two are related causally, it just “makes sense” that CO2 drives temperature, we have simple (though unrepeatable by Bill Nye and former Vice President Gore) demonstrations of the “effect”, demonstrations so simple in fact they bear no relation at all to the natural world, which is unfortunately too complex for them to actually measure, so instead they “model” it.
I’m a statistician so it gives me no pleasure at all to announce they’re lying with statistics and badly designed experiments. It’s all a lie. To paraphrase you, “meaningless crap”.

Reply to  Jeff Alberts
November 7, 2016 11:45 pm

I’ll also mention the trickery they’ve perpetrated with fundamental measures. It’s common to find well accepted “reconstructions” of Earth’s climate predating the invention of the thermometer by hundreds of thousands and even millions of years. Those reconstructions never seem to mention the error of estimate in these proxy measures of things like tree rings, ice cores and the radioactive isotope decay of fossilized plankton. But there are, very definite errors in those proxy measures, errors that consistently exceed the precision claimed by the results. It’s statistically impossible to use measures that aren’t precise to 0.1 degree to build models that are.
If you’d be interested in a more detailed critique of the house of cards we’ve come to call climate “science”, just click on my handle “Bartleby” at the top of this post.

Bill J
November 7, 2016 1:21 pm

Well if they’re right then they better get used to it because the world is not taking immediate or drastic action. At most we’ll have the token changes agreed to in Paris.

November 7, 2016 1:25 pm

Modeturbation.

November 7, 2016 1:30 pm

What is an interesting excercise is going through the “adjustments” used to justify the new “record temperature”. Tony Heller’s site usually gives a good history of the games out of Orwell, and the claims of the zealots is that much weaker due to reliance on cooked data.

Tony
November 7, 2016 1:30 pm

“However, while annual global average temperatures were locked in, it was still possible with immediate and strong action on carbon emissions to prevent record breaking seasons from becoming average”
Is science talking or politics? Sounds like the latter.

AndyG55
Reply to  Tony
November 7, 2016 1:34 pm

Tony, plenty of action taking place
India and China alone plan to build 1617 new coal power plants by 2030. Indonesia intends building 47.
Between 50 and 86 new coal plants are planned for Turkey in the next few years.
Japan and South Korea are pressing ahead with plans to open at least 60 new coal-fired power plants over the next 10 years.
New coal-fired plants have been proposed in Germany, France, Italy, Slovakia, and the UK,Cambodia, Laos, Oman, Sri Lanka, and Uzbekistan. Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Morocco, Namibia, Senegal.
Nothing Australia does will make one single tiny bit of difference.

toorightmate
Reply to  AndyG55
November 7, 2016 2:09 pm

EXCEPT – Australia.
Australia will not be building any new coal fired power stations.
BECAUSE – Australia is becoming dumber and dumber.

AndyG55
Reply to  AndyG55
November 7, 2016 2:50 pm

They should be replacing Hazelwood with new SOTA HELE coal.
They would achieve far greater CO2 reductions than by any other way.
The current stupidity will almost certainly lead to an INCREASE in GLOBAL CO2 emissions, as production transfers to India and China, with added shipping fuel usage.

rd50
Reply to  AndyG55
November 7, 2016 5:30 pm

Except Australia will be supplying the coal to, at least, India.

Ron Clutz
November 7, 2016 1:30 pm

All this trumpeting because of El Nino producing above average SSTs. It is the last hurrah before the cooling.
https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2016/11/05/el-ninos-hottest-year/

Tom Harley
Reply to  Ron Clutz
November 7, 2016 9:07 pm
DWR54
Reply to  Ron Clutz
November 7, 2016 11:20 pm

We keep hearing about imminent cooling. David Archibald, Don Easterbrook…. on and on it goes. The list of people who, over the years, have predicted imminent cooling through articles published on this site is quite large. Yet global temperatures keep getting warmer. Even the satellites show it now.

AndyG55
November 7, 2016 1:31 pm

““angry summer””
Can anyone spot this on the UAH temperature data for Australia ?comment image

AndyG55
Reply to  AndyG55
November 7, 2016 1:42 pm

Fact is , that the usual westerly winds in summer from the centre of Australia to the east coast, were a bit intermittent that year. That meant there were parts of the inland that got quite warm… BUT it also meant that the cities on the east coast, where a large proportion of people live, did not get there normal allocation of hot days. Angry summer.. nope!
One day in January the westerlies came, and it did get warm on the coast, and they “adjusted” the Sydney Observatory Hill automatic weather station (AWS) temperature of 45.3ºC (same as in 1939, 74 years earlier) up to 45.8ºC.. But that was not real. The AWS summary next day said maximum of 45.3ºC, and despite emails to BOM, I never got an explanation where the extra 0.5ºC came from.

Hivemind
Reply to  AndyG55
November 7, 2016 9:44 pm

“…despite emails to BOM, I never got an explanation where the extra 0.5ºC came from.”
Probably from Cairns. BOM have been mixing southerly city’s temperatures with much warmer climes to create their warming trend. You can see where the famous hockey stick comes from in all the interventions they make in the temperature record.

François
Reply to  AndyG55
November 7, 2016 1:52 pm

I have no idea what it was like before, but why did you start in 1996?

Marcus
Reply to  François
November 7, 2016 1:56 pm

” Last 20 Years” ?? D’oh !

Bindidon
Reply to  François
November 7, 2016 4:33 pm

Typical cherry picking in order to select a period with zero increase of temperature.
Starting with jan 1979 you obtain a linear trend of 0.154 ± 0.026 °C / decade, i.e. 0.3 °C higher than for the whole Globe.

Hivemind
Reply to  François
November 7, 2016 9:50 pm

“Typical cherry picking”
Try starting with 400k year ago. No global warming; in fact, the global temperature reveals it’s cyclical nature quite well.comment image

Bindidon
Reply to  François
November 8, 2016 2:50 am

Hivemind on November 7, 2016 at 9:50 pm
You know exactly what I mean, Hivemind: the satellite era, which as you know started by dec 1978 at UAH and jan 1979 at RSS.
If somebody hides the period between 1979 and 1996, then certainly with some clear intention.

Basil Beamish
Reply to  AndyG55
November 7, 2016 2:25 pm

Andy,
The number of hot days in Queensland regions are not exactly playing ball with the models either. I have been working on a post about “Exploring the Null Hypothesis for Hot Days in Queensland Regions”, which will set the scene for testing the null hypothesis over time using the number of hot days. As of the end of 2015 none of the 12 locations I have analysed fall outside two standard deviations of the average number of hot days using the classical 30 year climatology. If I get some spare time I hope to finish this before the end of the year so that 2016 can be added to the analysis when the results become official.
Enjoyed your post about the coal fired power stations. What a difference between the reality and the virtual world that some people seem to think we live in.
cheers, Basil

AndyG55
Reply to  AndyG55
November 7, 2016 2:43 pm

What’s really interesting is to look at the patterns within the Australian UAH data since the 1998 El Nino
Distinct downwards trends interrupted by steps back up.comment image

AndyG55
Reply to  AndyG55
November 7, 2016 2:46 pm

(note, light blue lines are sketched, not calculated trend lines)

DWR54
Reply to  AndyG55
November 8, 2016 3:20 pm

Sketching trend lines onto a graph instead of using linear regression to calculate the trend properly is a great idea. It means you can show whatever you want to show without relevance to the facts. I think it will catch on.

Chris
Reply to  AndyG55
November 11, 2016 5:24 am

Great comment, DWR54.

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  AndyG55
November 7, 2016 3:08 pm

You can’t spot anger, you have to feel it. Be the summer. Feel the anger. It’s a zen thing.

Resourceguy
November 7, 2016 1:31 pm

Feed the media beast.

Rex of Wellington
November 7, 2016 1:34 pm

How can it be the ‘hottest’ when it’s not even hot ???

Hugs
Reply to  Rex of Wellington
November 7, 2016 2:01 pm

Because alarmism. The seas boil.

Hivemind
Reply to  Hugs
November 7, 2016 9:52 pm

It’s a Hollywood CGI thing.

stevekeohane
November 7, 2016 1:40 pm

More tumescent models.

MarkW
Reply to  stevekeohane
November 7, 2016 3:08 pm

Spending too much time with pre-pubescent models can get you in big trouble.

Jon
November 7, 2016 1:46 pm

How can it be hottest when winter heating bills are the most expensive they”be ever been? Who stole our global warming?

charles nelson
November 7, 2016 1:55 pm

You’ve got to understand the timing of these press releases. It is nearly summer down here and we are all looking forward to some nice weather. The first ‘heatwaves’ and the ‘fire season’ will be upon us soon.
This is like selling ice cream…or sunglasses, they put the scare stories out to coincide with Warm Weather…they are Warmists.

toorightmate
Reply to  charles nelson
November 7, 2016 2:13 pm

Charles is correct – we Aussies have already had the dark and dire warnings of cyclones, bushfires and heatwaves.
We have had those same dire warnings for several past years now.
They emanate from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

joelobryan
November 7, 2016 2:07 pm

Gotta love those “due by date” demands that climatists make on Earth’s climate.
Cultists and End of Earth doomsayers have done since like forever.

Eugene WR Gallun
November 7, 2016 2:22 pm

“Noble Casue Corruption” is Gollum clinging to his “Precious”.
Eugene WR Gallun

November 7, 2016 2:22 pm

So we are to believe these folks know what the “old normal” was and that it was the best possible “normal”. Anyway, using averages, yes, sooner or later, we get a “new normal”. Now, had we started at the beginning of the MWP, then colder would have been the new normal. Statistics are a wonderful way to create whatever outcome you want. Choose the right statistic, the right data and voila! Instant proof.

George McFly......I'm your density
November 7, 2016 2:34 pm

That’s funny. I’ve lived in Australia for a lot of summers (over 60 actually) and I don’t recall any remarkable ones lately. Maybe I didn’t get the memo

Carolyn Snookes
November 7, 2016 2:39 pm

If it gets too hot on the Big Island, just come to Tasmania. At the start of November, I am sitting inside with the heater on and a blanket over my knees. If Bob Brown had been telling the truth, I should be sitting in an absolute beachfront property in a tropical paradise by now. I want my Global Warming!

hunter
November 7, 2016 2:42 pm

Even if the heat of 2016 becomes average by 2025 that will have no climate significance. The climate clowns are really, really crazy.

AndyG55
Reply to  hunter
November 7, 2016 2:44 pm

We certainly won’t be having El Nino transients every year !
That is all the 2016 warm is based on, an El Nino transient effect.

Latitude
November 7, 2016 2:50 pm

Gotta laugh….if they were serious those other 200 countries would have to “immediate and strong action on carbon emissions” also

Ian L. McQueen
November 7, 2016 2:52 pm

Pardon this unrelated posting but I didn’t know where else to put it.
Deutsche Welle has, like most other MSM, been promoting the AGW tale. Have a look at this for Bill McKibben’s warnings, etc.:
http://www.dw.com/en/living-planet-the-politics-of-climate-change/av-36246598
Ian M

Richard
November 7, 2016 3:10 pm

I have no doubt each year will be the hottest on record. That’s easy to do when those making the predictions also alter past data, making it cooler and cooler, to prove they’re right. It will continue to be the hottest year on record until ice sheets start advancing southward into North America, Europe, and Asia. Then, of course, we’ll be getting an ice age because global warming triggered it…because, of course, an ice would never, ever have happened without human intervention.

nankerphelge
Reply to  Richard
November 7, 2016 4:47 pm

Sadly you are right Richard.

TA
Reply to  Richard
November 7, 2016 5:58 pm

“I have no doubt each year will be the hottest on record. That’s easy to do when those making the predictions also alter past data, making it cooler and cooler, to prove they’re right.”
They can only make those “hottest year evah!” claims using the manipulated surface temperature charts. If they used the satellite temperature charts, they couldn’t have said “hottest year evah!” until Feb 2016, and not year after year like they did, pretending it was getting hotter and hotter with each successive year.
The drew the surface temperature chart to fit their “hottest year evah!” narrative. It’s the only item they can show someone to convince them of the CAGW narrative. Without the bastardized surface temperature chart the climate alarmists would have nothing to offer as “proof”. That’s a mighty costly chart they have there.

Bindidon
Reply to  TA
November 8, 2016 2:15 pm

Here is a chart with three 60 month running mean plots for the satellite era (1979-2016):
http://fs5.directupload.net/images/161102/hj6ylc6d.jpg
– yellow: UAH6.0beta5, Australia region
– red: GHCN unadjusted data (mean of all australian GHCN stations)
– green: mean of all UAH6.0beta5 grid cells encompassing one or more australian GHCN stations.
So much about your endless claim concerning “manipulated surface temperature charts”.
1. Though GHCN of course is warmer than UAH (measuring temperatures at over 7 km altitude), there is a good fit between UAH and GHCN.
2. The concordance between the yellow and the green plot tells us that the GHCN station set in Australia is well representative of the whole country.
Sources
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0beta5.txt
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/v3/
In http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tlt/
tltmonamg.1979_6.0beta5 through tltmonamg.2016_6.0beta5

Anoneumouse
November 7, 2016 3:21 pm

GLOBAL FREEZING: 15-year ICE AGE to hit in just 4 years as the sun prepares to ‘HIBERNATE’
http://www.express.co.uk/news/science/729767/Ice-age-prediction-sun-hibernates-global-cooling-climate-change

Reply to  Anoneumouse
November 7, 2016 4:02 pm

ICE AGE! And more! From their first para:
“A team of experts have warned that huge seismic events, including volcanic eruptions, plunging global temperatures and destabilisation of the Earth’s crust will become more common after worrying changes to the surface of the Sun were recorded.”
Volcanos! Big earthquakes! And just one solar cycle! They are pretty cagey about who the “team of experts” are. That’s the Express for you.

TA
Reply to  Nick Stokes
November 7, 2016 6:29 pm

“and destabilisation of the Earth’s crust ”
Sounds like the movie “2012”. We may need an ark.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Nick Stokes
November 8, 2016 2:01 am

The crust is in perpetual motion, it never stops. This motion, throughout the earth itself, is what keeps the mantle and core molten. Sometimes we notice, most times we don’t. And then we have the SMH in Australia who relies on climate experts like Flannery and Hannam, good one Stokes!

Bindidon
Reply to  Anoneumouse
November 8, 2016 1:46 pm

Anoneumouse on November 7, 2016 at 3:21 pm
The study looked at volcanic activity between 1650 – 2009 and earthquake activity between 1700 – 2009 comparing it to sunspots records.
It revealed a terrifying correlation between reduced solar activity and the largest seismic and volcanic events in recorded history.

That’s amazing! Here is a list of eruptions preceeding the LIA by far (VEI, volcano, date AD, VEI i.e. volcano explosivity index):
Peru Huaynaputina 1600, 6
Billy Mitchell 1580, 6
Bárðarbunga 1477, 6
Kuwae 1452, 6
Quilotoa 1280, 6
Rinjani 1257, 7
Should now suddenly all these guys’ eruption be put in relation to sunspots? Hmmmmh.

Logoswrench
November 7, 2016 3:31 pm

Yaaaaaawwwwnnnn.

November 7, 2016 3:48 pm

When you are in charge of the temperature record, you are able to produce a politically required ‘hottest year ever’ on demand. Mother Nature is not involved and has to be hidden from public view.

Tom in Florida
November 7, 2016 3:49 pm

Since “global average temperatures” have no real world meaning nobody should give a damn about whether that average goes up or down.

old44
Reply to  Tom in Florida
November 7, 2016 7:07 pm

Global average temperatures do have one useful function, whenever a warmist starts rabbiting on about GW just ask them what the earths temperature is, and if by some miracle they know it, you ask them what should it be. Usually ends the discussion.

Bill Powers
November 7, 2016 4:13 pm

When you have the primary media outlets in tow you can make any claim you wish and it will be so. We have gone beyond revising history to revising reality right before your very eyes. Poof! It’s not science, it’s magic!!

Michael Kelly
November 7, 2016 4:24 pm

The “record” exceeded the previous record by something like 0.2 C. That’s within measurement error. Interestingly enough, it also occurred in winter in the northern hemisphere.
But what I really wonder about is the statement that “some parts” of Australia experienced temperatures “approaching 50 C.” How closely did they approach? 50 C is 122 F. I lived in the Inland Empire of Southern California for 28 years, and experienced 116 F (46.7 C, “approaching” 50 C) for several weeks every summer. Barstow was well over 120 F during the same time. Somehow I survived. And so, before housing displaced it, did a thriving orange growing region. I just don’t see the down side of warmth.

Philip Schaeffer
November 7, 2016 4:33 pm

Anthony, could you add a link to the source of the article?

nankerphelge
November 7, 2016 4:46 pm

“But if If we don’t act quickly Australia’s “angry summer” of 2013 may soon be regarded as mild.”
I live in this sunburnt country and have never heard that phrase although I now note it has a presence as the “angry summer” or the “summer of extremes”!
These are the BOM figures for Melbourne. What are these people talking about?.
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=36&p_display_type=dataFile&p_startYear=&p_c=&p_stn_num=086038
They accuse others of cherry picking! Give me a break.

rd50
Reply to  nankerphelge
November 7, 2016 5:45 pm

In your table, data between 1973 and 2002 are missing.

nankerphelge
Reply to  rd50
November 7, 2016 6:00 pm

Thanks rd50. That is a straight copy and paste off the BOM records. I did not notice but wrongly assumed it was a complete record. I was more looking at the right hand side columns with the means.

Ray Boorman
November 7, 2016 5:39 pm

I don’t trust any scientist, who claims to have found a very dangerous problem, who then also claims to know what political policies a nation must follow to avert the dangers they have discovered. You can be a scientist who discovers things, but that does not make you an expert on matters political &/or economic who can predict the future.

old44
Reply to  Ray Boorman
November 7, 2016 6:52 pm

Our esteemed leaders trust them (if it involves increased taxes)

TomRude
November 7, 2016 5:40 pm

Since they cook the temperatures, it will always go up and it will always be a new normal…
It is a self fulfilling prophecy since when it’s hot it is because of global warming and when it is cold it is also because of global warming…
Should 1 km of ice build above New York it will be extreme global warming…

Marcus
November 7, 2016 5:48 pm

I wish someone here, that is much smarter than me,would ask the “Alarmists”, what temperature is it that you are seeking, and where on planet Earth should it be ?? If the Tropics cool down, then the North will get get unbearably cold…If the North heats up, then the Tropics will be unbearably hot, as per their models…soooo, what exactly do they want ? I was born in the semi far North of Canada, moved to the South of Florida and then returned to the North of Canada again in a 40 year span…The temperature differences were huge…and I am still alive with very little side affects..I think..?

Reply to  Marcus
November 8, 2016 6:24 am

Except obviously, you must be mentally deranged.
How else would you explain a skeptic willing to destroy the earth just so you can drive a car.
More’s the pity.

November 7, 2016 5:55 pm

It’s too soon to tell. The recent el Nino might have produced a step change in global mean temperature, as the 1998-1999 seems to have.

Bindidon
Reply to  matthewrmarler
November 8, 2016 2:53 am

Maybe due to the accumulation of some heat in the ocean which for whatever reason couldn’t escape to space?

Reply to  Bindidon
November 8, 2016 10:25 am

Bindidon: Maybe …
In the CO2 climate discussions and investigations, that is my favorite word.

Mickey Reno
Reply to  Bindidon
November 8, 2016 11:12 am

… and which might have been sequestered in the deep oceans for hundreds or thousands of years for all we know.

old44
November 7, 2016 6:49 pm

Guess we will just have to wait for another 10 years of government grants to find out if it’s true.

rwisrael
November 7, 2016 7:50 pm

How are we all still alive ?

waclimate
November 7, 2016 8:04 pm

Receiving no publicity in Australia is the fact that the south west quarter of the country had its coldest September mean temperature since 1897, based on readings from the 15 ACORN weather stations south of Geraldton and east to Eucla. The BoM’s September update (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mwr/aus/mwr-aus-201609.pdf) also shows that in a huge portion of inland Queensland, spreading into northern NSW and South Australia, maxima were as much as 6C below average. The bureau’s colour-coded map describes September max in the area simply as “Lowest on Record”.
In the Western Australia capital of Perth, May-Oct had the 5th coldest mean temperature for that six month period since 1910, according to the adjusted ACORN dataset. An analysis of these temps is at http://www.waclimate.net/september-coldest-2016.html
The national mean temperature for October was 0.5C below average, with max 0.29C cooler than average and min 0.73C cooler than average across Australia. Again, the BoM temperature maps show a portion of inland Queensland had a mean temperature of Lowest on Record during October.
The southern chill is caused by a mass of cold water that emerged in February off the WA coast and then spread across the Southern Ocean, now reaching as far east as Tasmania (which is why Tasmanian Carolyn above needs a heater and blanket even though we’re a week into November).
The cold SST is reflected in temperatures of the three southern capital cities of Adelaide, Melbourne and Hobart. Hobart’s average min was about 0.5C cooler in the second half of October than the first half. In Adelaide, the second half of October had average min 1.5C cooler than the first half and max 0.4C cooler than the first half. Melbourne average min and max were both 0.7C cooler in the second half of October than the first half. It should be the other way around as summer approaches.
NOAA records suggest it’s been many years since cold SST of this intensity and breadth enveloped Australia’s southern coastline. The BoM has predicted the cold SST will dissipate by the end of spring (in the southern hemisphere) … i.e. within a month, although the NOAA maps suggest even more cold over a widening ocean area this past week. If the Southern Ocean and southern Indian Ocean continue to feed cold air over southern Australia this coming summer, coupled with a likely La Nina influence from the north-east, some 12 monthly average cold records could be endangered by autumn next year.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  waclimate
November 8, 2016 1:56 am

Nope! All we see here on the other side of Aus in Sydney, is fire storms…worst evah, earliest start evah blah blah blah…
Hannam at the Sydney Morning Herald is posting an alarmist article almost every day!

Bindidon
Reply to  waclimate
November 8, 2016 3:06 am

waclimate on November 7, 2016 at 8:04 pm
Receiving no publicity in Australia is the fact that the south west quarter of the country had its coldest September mean temperature since 1897…
Maybe, but it is not unknown. Look at these world temperature maps for september 2016:
– GISS:comment image
– UAH6.0beta5:
http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2016/september/SEPTEMBER%202016.png
It doesn’t happen all the time that such a strong correlation is visible between surface and troposphere measurements. So it must be a huge cooling event.
But please don’t confound a local situation with that of the entire globe around it, which begins with north and east of… Australia.

ren
Reply to  Bindidon
November 8, 2016 5:35 am
Bindidon
Reply to  Bindidon
November 10, 2016 4:05 am

Yes ren, but those in the Grand North above 60 °N look quite nice too, especially when comparing them with Nick’s GHCN-ERSST mix:comment image
The discrepancy between surface and troposphere measurements in the SH still is very great as expected, but the concordance above 45 °N is imho more and more surprising.

ren
November 7, 2016 11:19 pm
ren
November 8, 2016 12:51 am

At the temperature anomalies of the northern Pacific is clearly influenced by the temperature of Siberia.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

ren
November 8, 2016 1:00 am

High temperatures from New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., will be around 10 degrees Fahrenheit below normal for mid-November. The gusty northwest winds will make it feel even colder.
Saturday will be the coldest day of the weekend.
Warm clothing will be required for any outdoor activities on Saturday as AccuWeather Realfeel® Temperatures will be in the 30s from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia and in the 20s from New York City to Boston.
http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2016/650x366_11071433_hd31-1.jpg

Niff
November 8, 2016 2:32 am

Imagine for a moment…..that they cannot understand their own ironic words…..

November 8, 2016 6:16 am

I’m thinking maybe 2 years after the El Nino.

ren
November 8, 2016 7:18 am

Weak solar wind and very high galactic ionizing radiation in the lower stratosphere.
http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00838/53vz9v2yox95.png

Resourceguy
November 8, 2016 7:20 am

Question: If climate change or even a shorter term cycle caused trees to keep their leaves for an extra month or two, what would that do to carbon levels etc.?

November 9, 2016 8:10 am

Did you see that picture? The Earth is on fire! DOOOOOOM!

Philip Schaeffer
November 9, 2016 3:33 pm

Still waiting for a link to the source for this article.
[try using Google in quote marks “Record hot year may be the new normal by 2025” – we aren’t here to fulfill requests you can easily do yourself -mod]

Philip Schaeffer
Reply to  Philip Schaeffer
November 10, 2016 3:54 am

What? So it’s ok to publish an article written by someone else, without a link to the original because you could google search and find it? Isn’t this basic journalism 101? If you are going to quote someone, shouldn’t you automatically provide a reference to where you got the quote from?
Or is it OK to expect people to take your word for it?
I can’t believe that we’re even arguing over whether you should provide a reference to the source when you quote someone. Are you reading this Anthony?

Michael Carter
November 11, 2016 4:02 pm

It is all odd. Broadcast from Radio New Zealand: “October was the hottest on record, 1 degree above the average” Stop. And yet having farmed in the same location for 50 years I find that it has been a cool slow spring. We get an immediate indication from local dairy farmers: the milk in their vats. Its down due to low soil temperatures and grass growth. They have not been able to shut up areas for silage yet. It is usually mostly done by now. Deciduous trees are 3 weeks late in leaf burst.

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