Guest post by David Middleton
“Sea level has already risen by about a foot, 1 foot, in much of the Southeast, which means Matthew’s storm surge was higher, and the flooding was more severe.”
–Hillary Clinton, Miami FL, 11 October 2016
When I read this quote in William Anderson’s recent post, I was reminded of Joe Bastardi’s appearance on the Sean Hannity Show on the eve of Hurricane Mathew’s landfall. When asked about the assertions that sea level rise has made hurricane storm surges more destructive, Mr. Bastardi said that it was insignificant. The influence of tides and waves were far more relevant than a minor rise in sea level.
To illustrate the irrelevance of sea level rise, I devised a little topographic exercise using NOAA tides & sea level trends and a USGS topographic map of the Jacksonville FL quadrangle. There are two NOAA sea level stations in this quadrangle: Fernandina Beach and Mayport. I chose Fernandina Beach because the record goes back to 1897, Mayport only goes back to 1930.
To evaluate the significance of 2 mm/yr of sea level rise since 1897, I constructed a topographic profile (A-A’) along Atlantic Avenue from Nassau General Hospital (A) to the shoreline (A’).
My next step was to plot the sea level data at the same vertical scale as the topographic profile.
What effect has all of this sea level rise had on a 10′ storm surge? Just above zero-point-zero.
My next exercise was to compare the typical tidal range to sea level rise.
Recommended Reading
Oh say can you see modern sea level rise from a geological perspective?
Featured Image Borrowed From
http://faculty.chemeketa.edu/afrank1/topo_maps/contour_lines.htm
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I don’t think Greenland melt is contributing much
http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/
No it has been unusually mild in East Greenland this fall with strong southerly winds. So all that wet air from the Atlantic gets forced up over the icecap and drops record amounts of snow.
That is something often forgotten. Glaciers require cold and precipitation. That is why there are almost no glaciers in northern Siberia. It is cold, but too dry.
Remember that part of the reason for recent sea level pile up on the east coast of North America is the current slow down of the Gulf Stream. This is not necessarily associated with warming – more likely the opposite.
All of you have it wrong!! The sea level is rising. But Florida is also rising, so the sea level rise doesn’t show up in America [except during storms].
How do I know that Florida is rising? The sinkholes are pushing it up!!
In addition, the Gulf Stream is constant just like the Sun!
Great post David, thanks.
Every cubic kilometer of silt deposits can cover area of 1 million square kilometers with 1mm deposit.(1000m x 1000mm). World ocean has 360 million km2. That means 720 cubic kilometers of deposits in oceans will cause rise of world ocean of 2mm per year.
Take all rivers with silt deposits, all dust from atmosphere and do not forget all the lava from underwater volcanoes.
David Middleton ==> You might like to check and use the National Geodetic Survey’s data collected through their network of Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS). Data and maps available, as well as links to processed data in papers: https://www.ngs.noaa.gov/CORS_Map/
These CORS units tell whether ort not the land mass is in motion and in which directions, included towards and away from the center of the Earth — in other words, is the land itself rising or falling.
Thanks Kip.