WHY IT MATTERS: Seth Borenstein is wrong about almost everything regarding Climate Change.

Guest post by David Middleton

Is Seth Borenstein a journalist or a political activist?  This should matter to the Associated Press, but it clearly doesn’t.

When I opened up the Real Clear Energy webpage this morning, I found the usual mix of articles relevant to energy (~20%) and environmental nonsense (~80%), including  a particularly ignorant rant from Seth Borenstein.  When did energy and climate science become conflated? If climate science is actually science, shouldn’t it be on the Real Clear Science webpage?

Anyway, back to Seth Borenstein’s amazingly ignorant rant…

WHY IT MATTERS: Climate Change

By SETH BORENSTEIN

Aug. 29, 2016 2:30 PM EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) — WASHINGTON (AP) — THE ISSUE: It’s as if Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump live on two entirely different Earths: one warming, one not.

Clinton says climate change “threatens us all,” while Trump tweets that global warming is “mythical” and repeatedly refers to it as a “hoax.” Measurements and scientists say Clinton’s Earth is much closer to reality.

As heat-trapping gases in the air intensify and hot temperature records shatter, global warming is taking a toll on Americans’everyday life : their gardens, air, water, seasons, insurance rates and more.

[…]

WHY IT MATTERS

Dozens of measurements show Earth is warming. And it’s worsening. The overwhelming majority of climate scientists and nearly every professional organization of scientists have said climate change is real, man-made and a problem.

[…]

Hold on there a minute Seth… Dozens of measurements show that Earth has warmed since the mid-1800’s and all of the non-Hockey Stick climate reconstructions show that this warming began around 1600 AD (plus or minus a couple of decades).  However, there is no basis to claim that “it’s worsening.”  The data demonstrate that the rate of warming has actually slowed down…

UAH_01
UAH 6.0 Lower Troposphere global temperature anomaly (via Wood For Trees).

While “every professional organization of scientists have said climate change is real” (even the AAPG)…  None say that it is exclusively “man-made” and most say that computer models predict that it could become “a problem.”  Maybe it’s a verb conjugation issue… Warmed becomes “warming”, could be becomes “is.”  Whatever the conjugation, this is noting but argumentum ad verecundiam.

Borenstein: The last 15 months in a row have set records globally for heat, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Here are the 15 hottest months in the UAH 6.0 satellite temperature record:

1) 2016.08 0.832

2) 1998.25 0.743

3) 2016.17 0.734

4) 2016.25 0.715

5) 1998.08 0.653

6) 1998.33 0.643

7) 1998.42 0.575

8) 2016.33 0.545

9) 2016 0.541

10) 1998.58 0.516

11) 2010.17 0.514

12) 1998.5 0.511

13) 2010 0.502

14) 1998 0.479

15) 1998.17 0.475

Only 5 of the 15 hottest months “on record” fall within the “last 15 months in a row.”  8 of the hottest months on record occurred 18 years ago.

Borenstein: The world is on pace to break the record for hottest year, a record broken in 2010, 2014 and 2015. The five hottest years recorded have all been from 2005 on and it is about 1.8 degrees warmer than a century ago.

The world appears a lot less likely “on pace to break the record for hottest year, a record (not) broken in 2010, 2014 and 2015.

UAH_02
UAH 6.0 12-month running average. 1998 remains the hottest year on record (via Wood For Trees).

The 1998 record appears to be intact and might just survive the monster El Niño of 2015-16.

Borenstein: But it’s more than temperatures. Arctic sea ice keeps flirting with record low amounts.

*Arctic* sea ice keep “flirting with record low amounts” while Antarctic sea ice keeps “flirting” with record high amounts.  (My Marine Science professor used to castigate anyone who used the word “amounts” when discussing quantities.)

Sea_Ice
NSIDC Sea Ice Indices, 12-month running average (via Wood For Trees).

The sea ice record only dates back to 1979 and the flirtations with record lows are barely exceeding 2 standard deviations (AKA natural variability).

n_timeseries
NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice Extent (via WUWT Sea Ice Page).

Furthermore, the Arctic has been ice-free during the summer throughout much of the Holocene.

chukchi
Modern sea-ice cover in the study area, expressed here as the number of months/year with >50% coverage, averages 10.6 ±1.2 months/year… Present day SST and SSS in August are 1.1 ± 2.4 8C and 28.5 ±1.3, respectively… In the Holocene record of core HLY0501-05, sea-ice cover has ranged between 5.5 and 9 months/year, summer SSS has varied between 22 and 30, and summer SST has ranged from 3 to 7.5 8C (Fig. 7). McKay et al., 2008 (http://research.bpcrc.osu.edu/geo/publications/mckay_etal_CJES_08.pdf)

 

Borenstein: Hot water has been killing coral as never before seen. Scientists have connected man-made climate change to extreme weather, including deadly heat waves, droughts and flood-inducing downpours.

Unsubstantiated, unquantified drivel.

Borenstein: They even have connected it as one of several factors in the Syrian drought and civil war that led to a massive refugee crisis.

The region has been drying out since the Medieval Warm Period.

f3-large
Note the regional transition from wet to dry conditions at the end of the “Medieval climate anomaly.” Drought is the norm for the region. The wet period was the anomaly. From Kaniewski et al., 2012. http://m.pnas.org/content/109/10/3862.full

Borenstein: Climate change is causing the seas to rise, which threatens coastlines. Sea level has risen a foot in the waters around New York City in the past century, worsening flooding from Superstorm Sandy.

Here is that 1 foot of sea level rise plotted at the same scale as the Statue of Liberty…

13512005_10206050063442485_5999553283939035155_n
Sea level trend at The Battery, NY station (via NOAA Tides and Currents).

Sea level, as measured by tidal gauges, is currently doing exactly what it is has been doing since at least 1850…

13502562_10206050062802469_8217170541336521280_o

Regarding Frankenstorm Sandy, the 1 foot of sea level rise is totally insignificant relative to the normal tidal ranges and worse storm surges hit the region long before Seth Borenstein started propagandizing for the Warmunists.

ne_storm_surges
Hurricane Sandy’s estimated maximum storm surge compared to historical storm surges in southern New England (Donnelly et al., 2001)

Borenstein: And it is making people sicker with worsened allergies and asthma, heat deaths, diseases spread by ticks and mosquitoes, dirtier air and more contaminated water and food, a federal report said in April.

More unsubstantiated, unquantifiable, unverifiable drivel.

Borenstein: Changing the world’s economy from burning fossil fuel, which causes global warming, has a huge price tag. So does not doing anything. The world’s average income will shrivel 23 percent by the year 2100 if carbon dioxide pollution continues at the current pace, according to a 2015 study out of Stanford and the University of California Berkeley.

Even more unsubstantiated, unquantifiable, unverifiable drivel.

The price tag of decarbonization is in the range of $20 trillion (just for the U.S.) to avert a 10% chance “of an utterly catastrophic finale to humanity’s atmospheric experiment.”

Two Harvard economists, after trawling through voluminous, authoritative research, said last year that the odds of an utterly catastrophic finale to humanity’s atmospheric experiment is about 10 percent. That’s a conclusion that can focus minds pretty quickly—and perhaps turn the expenditure of trillions of dollars over three decades into only a tough, but manageable, problem.

[…]

Jacobson researches how states (PDF) and countries can achieve 100 percent renewable energy systems—even more ambitious than the cuts President Barack Obama wants by 2050 and which informed Heal’s study. What Jacobson calls a mistake in his colleague’s paper concerns the overall estimate, which accounts only for reductions from electricity generation, transmission, and storage.

But electricity makes up only 30 percent of U.S. carbon emissions. To account for the other two-thirds of energy use—transportation, industry, and residential and commercial use—that total should be much higher, Jacobson said.

By his measure, that would leave an economy-wide, 100 percent renewable price range of between $5.3 trillion and $22 trillion by 2050, closer to Jacobson’s own central estimate of about $14.6 trillion, he said.

Once Jacobson expanded Heal’s estimate so that it covered 100 percent of greenhouse gas emissions from all key sectors, their approaches stood about $8 trillion apart.

Heal did estimate that electrifying American transportation—cars, trucks, trains—would require approximately $620 billion in additional generation capacity. Beyond that, he didn’t go into non-electricity costs because the numbers would be smaller (billions, not trillions). “These costs will be small relative to the massive numbers associated with energy production and storage,” he said.

[…]

Bloomberg

My back-of-the-envelope calculations put the price tag closer to $40 trillion, just for U.S. electricity generation… Whatever the number, it’s in the trillions and it will avert a 10% chance of catastrophe.  That’s idiotic – Particularly since the 10% chance is based on computer models using the RCP 8.5 scenario… Models that have failed 95% of the time.

Borenstein: Just the Obama administration’s efforts to cut carbon pollution from 1,000 power plants projects to cost about $8 billion a year, but save several times more than in reduced health problems.

Apart from the very real $8 billion per year, more unsubstantiated, unquantifiable, unverifiable drivel.

Borenstein: The world’s largest general scientific society warns of “abrupt, unpredictable, and potentially irreversible changes with highly damaging impacts.”

Argumentum ad verecundiam, based on projections from computer models that have failed 95% of the time. “Same as it ever was”…

 

 

Featured image borrowed from Climate Depot.

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Griff
September 2, 2016 6:57 am

The arctic sea ice record now extends with confidence back to 1850 – and now it is lower than ever. This article gives background to the latest comprehensive assembly of arctic sea ice data:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-piecing-together-arctic-sea-ice-history-1850
“the new dataset allows us to answer the three questions we posed at the beginning of this article.
First, there is no point in the past 150 years where sea ice extent is as small as it has been in recent years. Second, the rate of sea ice retreat in recent years is also unprecedented in the historical record. And, third, the natural fluctuations in sea ice over multiple decades are generally smaller than the year-to-year variability2
Arctic sea ice is now the second lowest in the satellite record (i.e.second lowest since 1850)
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
and we haven’t hit 2016 minimum yet…

Griff
Reply to  David Middleton
September 2, 2016 7:28 am

Its a collection of all available evidence…
We can say with confidence there is no evidence to show it was lower in the 30s/40s as often alleged.

Reply to  David Middleton
September 2, 2016 7:38 am

Griff, that is incorrect. There are DMI ice maps for August up to 1939. Larsen did the first ever single season NWP transit in 1944, East to west. Took him two years west to east 1941-42.

MarkW
Reply to  David Middleton
September 2, 2016 7:39 am

Just because it is all the data available is not sufficient to make the claim that it is sufficient to generate high confidence.
Prior to the satellite era, all we had was visual observations from the hand full of ships that sailed the arctic. And most of those did everything in their power to avoid the ice.

Griff
Reply to  David Middleton
September 2, 2016 7:57 am

ristvan – what’s incorrect?
(I note that now a cruise liner is doing the NW passage in a single season and that it has regularly been open to shipping since 2009)

Greg
Reply to  David Middleton
September 2, 2016 9:10 am

Griff what sort of “shipping” is “regularly” getting through? Ice breakers.
Don’t count the ship of fools until they get through. This foolhardy profit-making should have been outlawed by the Canadian authorities who will have the responsabiltiy of mounting a rescue attempt if something goes wrong.
Note that ship is accompanied by an ice breaker too.

Paul Coppin
Reply to  David Middleton
September 2, 2016 10:00 am

It needs to be remembered that there are two passages across the Arctic – the North West, and the North East. The North East is regularly open to sea-going traffic. The North West, not so much.

Jtom
Reply to  David Middleton
September 2, 2016 10:17 am

Griff: cruise ship? You mean this little adventure?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/17/british-research-ship-in-northwest-passage-cruise-voyage-row/
I would posit that the ability to make this journey, if it turns out successful, has a lot more to do with the construction and speed of the vessel, and being escorted by an ice breaker, more than anything having to do with the ice. Do you really think it tells us anything to compare this to the same feat done by individual, slow wooden ships that accomplished the same thing in the past?

Bryan A
Reply to  David Middleton
September 2, 2016 10:28 am

Griff,
Looking at the graphics in your first link,
It is interesting that this particular report goes back to 1850 and basically proclaims that at the start of the industrial revolution (1850) there was more ice in the arctic ocean than today.
It is also interesting that the graphs appear to have been created bt data sources going back to around 1930 then use an “average measurement” to speculate beyond that point.
Starting at the beginningf the industrial revolution is a very safe bet given that we were still coming out of the Little Ice Age period and there was likely more ice there then. But if you could go back to the Medieval Warm Period, there would likely be significantly less ice than today. Lest you forget, the Vikings had colonized Greenland from about 950 to about 1350 AD and didn’t require Ice Breakers to travel around the Northern Atlantic or Arctic Oceans near Greenland on a regular basis.
There was also more ice in 1912 as a Steel Ship was sunk by a berg then and was traveling in what was supposed to be typically Ice Free waters.
Even in todays waters, ships rarely traverse the Northwest or Northwest passages without the assistance of an Ice Breaker Ship

Reply to  David Middleton
September 2, 2016 11:31 am

Speaking of the Crystal Serenity, they seem to have reached a pretty thick patch of ice.
http://www.kroooz-cams.com/serenity/serenity1.php
To my untrained eye, that does not look passable, but I am no expert. I am also unable to get the exact location of this. I’m guessing they are in one of those channels around Fort Ross. They left Cambridge Bay a few days ago and they are on their way to Pond Inlet.

Reply to  David Middleton
September 2, 2016 2:00 pm

Griffy child; it is not all available evidence, it is a highly selective cherry pick of preferred evidence.
No scientific method makes for bogus research.
Plus you have been told this before when you posted the same links, repeatedly, before.
A) Learn what makes for a scientific approach
B) Actually read the alleged research looking for the scientific metrics and controls.
C) Whenever you come across a waffle word; e.g. might, could, likely, possible, model, modeled, estimated, etc etc, realize that the claim is purely subjective and without scientific merit.

Reply to  David Middleton
September 2, 2016 3:05 pm

Kevin Pond:
To add to your timely Crystal cruise ship Arctic expedition comment:
Port side camera
http://legacy.crystalcruises.com/cache/cyport2.jpg
Starboard camera
http://legacy.crystalcruises.com/cache/cystar2.jpg
Internet lab:
http://legacy.crystalcruises.com/cache/cylab2.jpg
The Russian view of the Arctic ice.
http://www.nsra.ru/files/images/%D0%9D%D0%93%D0%93%D0%9C%D0%9E/20160830en.jpg
Right now, the clock is ticking before the starts it’s winter growth.

Reply to  David Middleton
September 2, 2016 3:13 pm

I wish I could tell where they are exactly.

Reply to  David Middleton
September 2, 2016 4:44 pm

https://my.yb.tl/crystalserenity
They are in Croker Bay. This is a sightseeing stop.

george e. smith
Reply to  David Middleton
September 2, 2016 5:35 pm

Northwest-northeast; what’s the difference ?
My commute route is open in both directions simultaneously. If the arctic ocean is open to passage, it is open. Doesn’t really matter which way the ship goes if it is open.
I went a third of the way; almost a half way round the earth in 1961, and it took a full month including stops along the way at little fishing villages, like Tahiti, Panama (2), Miami, Manhattan.
So what is this crossing the arctic ocean “in a season ” ??
if it was open you should be able to get through there in a week or two, not five months.
G

MarkW
Reply to  Griff
September 2, 2016 7:38 am

Wow, visual reports from a handful of sailing vessels is now an “accurate” report of total ice?
What have you been smoking recently.
As to your comment that we haven’t hit the 2016 minimum yet. If you’ve ever said something more stupid, I haven’t seen it.
Yes we haven’t hit the minimum yet, but the current amounts are so far above earlier years that we would have to set off nukes up there to get the total sea ice down to anything close to a record low.

Reply to  MarkW
September 2, 2016 5:19 pm

With Clinton’s brain damage, who knows? Nukes??!

tony mcleod
Reply to  MarkW
September 2, 2016 5:20 pm

“the current amounts are so far above earlier years”
Wrong and needlessly insulting.
It looks like 2016 is going lower than 2007, with the ice in worse condition than 2012.
Choose: extent, area or volume and apart from 2012 show 2016 is ” so far above” anything recent.

Lou Maytrees
Reply to  MarkW
September 2, 2016 9:40 pm

Not true, Arctic Sea ice is 2nd lowest recorded at this time of year, only behind the record low of 2012.
nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Michael Jennings
Reply to  Griff
September 2, 2016 7:55 am

The arctic sea ice record now extends with confidence back to 1850 – and now it is lower than ever. This article gives background to the latest comprehensive assembly of arctic sea ice data:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-piecing-together-arctic-sea-ice-history-1850
“the new dataset allows us to answer the three questions we posed at the beginning of this article.
First, there is no point in the past 150 years where sea ice extent is as small as it has been in recent years. Second, the rate of sea ice retreat in recent years is also unprecedented in the historical record. And, third, the natural fluctuations in sea ice over multiple decades are generally smaller than the year-to-year variability2
Arctic sea ice is now the second lowest in the satellite record (i.e.second lowest since 1850)
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
and we haven’t hit 2016 minimum yet…
This post is a joke right? Has to be, using 3 different, incomplete or untested data sets to come to a determination on exact amounts is absolutely unscientific, but you knew that already (I hope). It is like saying the Packers beat the Bears who beat the Vikings, ergo, the Packers beat the Vikings, even though they didn’t play. Making assumptions makes you,……….. well you know the rest.

Griff
Reply to  Michael Jennings
September 2, 2016 8:02 am

Its entirely supported by detailed research collected by Judith Curry
https://judithcurry.com/2013/04/10/historic-variations-in-arctic-sea-ice-part-ii-1920-1950/
“The 1920-1940’s arctic sea ice melt can therefore be seen as remarkable, albeit the caveats about apples and oranges need to be applied. Looking at the evidence available from each of the arctic oceans means the ice extent probably lies somewhere within that experienced during the first half of the 2000’s, but was probably not as low as 2007 and 2012.”
There is no evidence of lower ice levels than at present, after a detialed examination of all records… examination of all records shows ice level is lower now.
Certainly we have the second lowest in the satellite record: ice is not recovering to pre-2007 levels
In short, arctic sea ice presents clear and compelling evidence for a warming arctic, with ice lower than in past cycles/ice loss in addition to natural variation.
do post any scientific observation which contradicts…

Joel Snider
Reply to  Michael Jennings
September 2, 2016 8:14 am

On a big El Nino year.

Greg
Reply to  Michael Jennings
September 2, 2016 9:13 am

Just to show how closely Griff is paying attention to his sources the article and data was not collected by Judith Curry. The first line under the title may be a clue to the clueless:
“by Tony Brown”

Ben of Houston
Reply to  Michael Jennings
September 2, 2016 10:59 am

Griff, there are entirely different sets of data at play that are simply not comparable. Now, we can draw some conclusions from them. Most notably that there was significant amounts of ice melt in 1920-1940 and that it was followed and preceded by periods of heavier ice, but attempting to draw a more certain conclusion than that is just not possible.
It’s not that the data is bad, but claiming “worse than ever” is a quantifiable claim, but your data is sorely insufficient to make that claim, and it is countered by numerous examples in your own data.
If I was to conclude anything, it would be that Arctic Sea Ice has a large amount of natural variability and has notably large periods of melting in the recent past. It’s precisely the opposite of your conclusion.

Reply to  Michael Jennings
September 2, 2016 2:22 pm

“…Griff September 2, 2016 at 8:02 am
Its entirely supported by detailed research collected…”

Oh the wicked ways in which people try to deceive.
Your claim(s) are not ‘entirely’ supportive! In fact, reading through them indicates that there are only a few small pieces that might be supportive.
General universal conclusion A): Records are sparse, very locale dependent, inconsistent, and frankly Not Tracking Sea Ice area, but tracking open shipping lanes.

1. The idea of Arctic Warming during 1920–40 is supported in Russian publications by the following facts:
* retreating of glaciers, melting of sea islands, and retreat of permafrost
* decrease of sea ice amounts
* acceleration of ice drift
* change of cyclone paths
* increase of air temperature
* biological indications of Arctic warming
* ease of navigation
* increase in temperature and heat content of Atlantic Waters, entering Arctic Basin.
2. The reasons of Arctic Warming (according to old Russian publications).
3. Cooling in 1950–1960.
Retreating of glaciers, melting of islands, and retreat of permafrost
During the Persey cruise in 1934 Zubov noticed that the glaciers of Jan-Mayen and Spitsbergen were considerably reduced, relative to their sizes adduced in British sailing directions of 1911. Retreat of glaciers was observed also at Spitsbergen, Franz-Joseph Land, and Novaya Zemlya. The ice bridges between some of Franz-Joseph islands melted.
Alman explored the glaciers of Spitsbergen in 1934 and came to the conclusion that they were melting. The observations of 1935–1938 showed that Iceland glaciers were melting too.
According to Sumgin, the south boundary of permafrost shifted to the north by 40 km during 1905–1933.
The disappearance of Vasilievsky Island in the Laptev Sea and washing away of the Lyakhovsky islands were phenomena of the same type…

In fact several of the supporting links include similar facts and evidence. Only to be ignored, by surprisingly very recent research, which state a majority of their claims with waffle words.
Once again little griffy demonstrates an amazing lack of reading comprehension.

Bryan A
Reply to  Michael Jennings
September 2, 2016 2:31 pm

In the 2 paragraphs prior to the final “Apples and Oranges” statement are these two gems

In trying to determine the true extent of sea ice melt during the period 1920-1940, we run the risk of comparing apples to oranges, since the different observing methods employed over the years makes it difficult to determine how modern ice extent compares to the past with any certainty.
However, the conclusion must be that drawn that warming was more widespread in the Arctic – not just the Atlantic side – than is currently noted in the official sea ice data bases covering 1920-1945/50 and that the official records appear to very substantially overstate the ice area extent during this period.

Michael Jankowski
Reply to  Michael Jennings
September 2, 2016 3:47 pm

Anecdotal evidence that the MWP was warmer than today = rubbish
Anecdotal evidence that sea ice levels were higher in the 40s = gold
Trolls are priceless.

John Harmsworth
Reply to  Michael Jennings
September 2, 2016 8:18 pm

Hear ye! Hear ye! All attendants of intelligence and good faith! Know ye that the malevolent, cowardly and lying troll- Griff- who sought to terrify and do great damage to our little village of the intellectually curious, by bellowing nonsense beyond reason, has been banished! As always in our glorious past, the troll has vanished without even a puff of smoke at the merest mention of simple truth. He always shows himself to be a spineless creature of the shadows, who neither possesses light nor can stand it! The comment here is his last as several comments follow it which gently but certainly make a mockery of the output of poor Griff’s twisted fingers and stunted brain. Hark! I hear him in the distance! “The warming! The warming!”

Reply to  Griff
September 2, 2016 8:51 am

It’s simply dishonest to claim we have reliable ice extent records going back further than the satellite age. In fact, that goes for land temps as well–all the 1850 claims are bogus. All of them.
You know what we do have? We have photographs of Navy ships at the North Pole with hardly a shave of ice in sight. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/26/ice-at-the-north-pole-in-1958-not-so-thick/
The claim that the current ice extent is unusually low is, as with your other claims, spurious.

Eugene WR Gallun
Reply to  Griff
September 2, 2016 9:59 am

Griff —
Different types of data sets but surprisingly one seemingly valid conclusion can be reached.
Over the past 150 year, sea ice extent in the Arctic has increased and decreased with some regularity — when graphed the changes almost taking the form of a sine wave (alright maybe that metaphor cleans up the data a little too much — but hey, I am a poet and a good metaphor is worth a thousand words!).
So variation in Arctic sea ice extent is natural. You present no evidence (because none exists) that the current arctic sea ice levels are “unnatural” — caused by some new intruding “force” (global warming, climate change, take whatever choice of name you wish to apply to Manbearpig).
But you don’t need evidence do you. You have been conditioned to respond like a good hothead should. That current Arctic sea ice extent is low TRIGGERS YOU — and so you shout — MANBEARPIG!!!!! — as loud as you can.
Eugene WR Gallun

Leo Smith
Reply to  Griff
September 2, 2016 11:02 am

Oh do troll somewhere else Egriff. Everyone knows who pays you to come here.

Dr Bob
Reply to  Griff
September 2, 2016 11:51 am

Griff says “The arctic sea ice record now extends with confidence back to 1850 – and now it is lower than ever.”
Griff then says “First, there is no point in the past 150 years where sea ice extent is as small as it has been in recent years.”
Irrelevant Griff! The Holocene geological record contains abundant empirical evidence which shows that temperatures in the Arctic were significantly higher during the Holocene maximum than they are at present.
Griff, you need an education in ‘big picture’ climate history. A degree in geology would help you a great deal. Your focus on the significance of the most recent 150 years of the 11,700 year Holocene Interstadial invites well-deserved ridicule.

AndyG55
Reply to  Dr Bob
September 2, 2016 3:41 pm

There are also many papers dealing with biodata, and other proxies, that show there was quite often basically ZERO summer sea ice for a large proportion of the pre-neoglaciation period.
At the end of the LIA Arctic sea ice levels would have been at their EXTREME. One of the few places where expansion of sea ice can take place is past Iceland, so let’s look at the Iceland sea ice index.. actual historic data.comment image
As you can see, there was a longish near zero period in the 1930s,40 but the real pointer is that the 10970’s level is not that much less than the 1880’s at the tail end of the LIA.
So what is actually happening at the moment is a RECOVERY from levels only really seen during the COLDEST period in the last 10,000 years.
And unfortunately, with the AMO turning, that level is more than likely going to start to increase again over the coming years.

Matt Bergin
Reply to  Griff
September 2, 2016 1:44 pm

There was also Tapirs, Crocodiles, and Hippos in the arctic as well back then. Axel Heiberg island was covered in a white pine forest during the same time period. It was a veritable jungle up in the arctic “Way back in the day” 🙂
PS Griff there probably wasn’t any ice in the arctic 3.5 million years ago when this was going on.
Funnily enough the Chinese sailed around the arctic in the 14th century and they stated that they didn’t find any ice there. As Harry Chapin said in one of his songs “All my life is a circle” you know what comes around goes around, everything on this planet has cycles. The problem is that the cycles are longer than our individual lives and as a whole humans have very short memories.

John in Oz
Reply to  Griff
September 2, 2016 2:48 pm

Griff, please explain the antarctic sea ice levels using the same cause and effect reasoning.

AndyG55
Reply to  John in Oz
September 2, 2016 3:43 pm

CO2 over Antarctica was recently measured at 400ppm.
Griff could also show us the effect of rising on Antarctic temperatures.comment image

Hans
Reply to  Griff
September 2, 2016 3:42 pm

We are just getting out of the LIA.
What in the HELL did you expect!!!

Reply to  Griff
September 2, 2016 4:42 pm

Turns out they are making a scheduled stop in Croker Bay. If you look on a map, you can see they have almost made it through the passage. So it looks like they will make it.
https://my.yb.tl/crystalserenity

rw
Reply to  Kevin Pond
September 3, 2016 11:41 am

Yes, Ron Clutz has been following their progress for a while now. They made VERY good time after leaving Barrow; obviously the crew knew they had to hustle if they were going to make it all the way through the NWP. On the other hand, I think it’s pretty doubtful that the Northabout will make it.

Reply to  Griff
September 2, 2016 5:07 pm

You speak about sea ice data as is it is not totally flawed, and comprehensive, which it is clearly not. Too many references to count!

Michael D
Reply to  Griff
September 3, 2016 9:58 am

Given that my home, from which I am writing, was under 1km of ice 1200 years ago, it seems quite possible that the Arctic ice is retreating. Says nothing about human influence.

TonyP
Reply to  Griff
September 4, 2016 5:07 am

Griff, you don’t know what the hell youre talking about. Arctic ice extent was lower in the late teens & again in the mid to late 1950’s.

Reply to  Griff
September 4, 2016 3:06 pm

Deep tunnels in Northern Greenland have to cut through a layer of tree trunks and roots, indicating that the Arctic was much warmer once and forests flourished. There may have been no summer ice at all at this time. After all, ice caps are unusual in the Earth’s history having only occurred only twice in geological history (help please, maybe this has been refuted since my early uni courses). And where do you think the Antarctic coal measures came from?

September 2, 2016 6:59 am

So Borenstein is a devout green and works in the MSM. Being shallow and credulous is a near requirement for the job as an environmental reporter.

Goldrider
Reply to  Tom Halla
September 2, 2016 1:29 pm

RealClearPolitics links to articles, mostly editorials, from MSM sources daily. Need I add that they’re running about 8 to 1 against Trump? Sounds like the ratio’s the same over on their RCEnergy site. Why are we not surprised? Neither truth nor science are important when you’re being paid to carpet-bomb the public mind with The Narrative.

John Harmsworth
Reply to  Tom Halla
September 2, 2016 7:39 pm

That’s a nice comment so I’ll put away the terms I had picked out. Disingenuous and imbecilic are probably beyond Griff anyway. He usually disappears once somebody dismantles his idiotic constructs anyway.

Walt D.
September 2, 2016 7:01 am

Argumentum ad verecundiam
Argumentum ex recti?

pdtillman
Reply to  Walt D.
September 2, 2016 7:18 am

Argumentum ex rectum!

Walt D.
Reply to  pdtillman
September 2, 2016 7:45 am

Forgotten my Latin. Ablative of um nouns (bellum) should end in o (bello)?
Any Latin scholar on the forum to help me out?

Ben of Houston
Reply to  pdtillman
September 2, 2016 8:02 am

Only second declension (those that end in “-us” or “-um”, excluding the rare 4th declension ones).
It would be ex recto.

gnomish
Reply to  pdtillman
September 2, 2016 9:00 am

nominative, genitive, dative, accusative, ablative
um, i, o, um, o
a, orum, is, as, is

Reply to  pdtillman
September 2, 2016 9:06 am

Rectum? Hell, killed him. 🙂

Greg
Reply to  pdtillman
September 2, 2016 9:15 am

“Argumentum ex rectum!”
Brilliant, I get tired of these pretentious bits of Latin , intended to give the impression of being educated, but I’ll remember this one. Nice.

PeterinMD
Reply to  pdtillman
September 2, 2016 10:40 am

I think “Argumentum exit rectum!” fits better

Scott
Reply to  pdtillman
September 2, 2016 12:03 pm

“recked em'”? damn near killed em’…..

Reply to  pdtillman
September 2, 2016 1:49 pm

Dave Middleton, great scene from an excellent movie. Thanks for posting.
I liked the Latin translations. Knew the first one, but not the others. I took Latin 50 years ago. Now about all I remember is “Gallia est omnis divisa in partes tres, quarum unam incolunt Belgae, aliam Aquitani, tertiam qui ipsorum lingua Celtae, nostra Galli appellantur.” (All Gaul is divided into three parts…”). The nuns beat it into us…
Too bad that clip stopped just before Johnny Ringo’s challenge, and the response from Doc Holliday. That’s a good scene from a fun and historically, a pretty accurate movie.
(Jump to 2:25 if you like, where the Latin clip ends.)
And yes, Borenstein is wrong. Not about everything; he’s just wrong about science. He confuses it with politics. But that hardly makes him unique, just Mannish…

Reply to  pdtillman
September 2, 2016 3:09 pm

Doc: “Are you my Huckleberry?”
Ringo: needs a change of pants…

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  pdtillman
September 2, 2016 10:02 pm

It says Romans Go Home!

Reply to  pdtillman
September 4, 2016 3:09 pm

Or bovis stercore?

Mikko Hamunen
Reply to  Walt D.
September 4, 2016 2:48 am

http://areena.yle.fi/1-1931339
News in latin. Only in Finland 😊.

Caligula Jones
September 2, 2016 7:04 am

Anyone who mentions Syria, drought and civil war in the same sentence, without acknowledging the brutal policies of a monstrous dictator (i.e., directing irrigation away from food production towards cash crop production) can’t be trusted.
But I think we all knew that anyway after we read the byline by “Seth Borenstein “.

pdtillman
Reply to  Caligula Jones
September 2, 2016 7:19 am

+10

joelobryan
September 2, 2016 7:20 am

Borenstein is paid to write Climate porn. That what his bosses apparently want. No truth needed. If he suddenly found journalistic integrity and stopped writing the propaganda to support Progressive power grabs then they’d replace him.
So the answer is not expecting Borenstein to stop lying. The answer is to ensure enough voters see through the climate lies and vote the Progressives (Democrats) out of office, and break the underlying need for those in power to have the biased media lie for them.

Sundance
September 2, 2016 7:27 am

Seth says climate change is taking a toll on, “….their gardens, air, water, seasons, insurance rates and more.”
This is pure nonsense. My fruit trees and garden have never been better, I haven’t needed to water my lawn in the last 10 years and there have been no water restrictions in over a decade. Illinois farmers are preparing for 2016 to be a new record in corn and soy bean harvest with the average corn yield expected to be 223 bushels/acre. in the 1980s average corn yield was 120 bushels/acre. Anyone over the age of 60 has seen far worse climate in their lives than what we are experiencing in the 21st century.
Like fanatical Malthusian Paul Ehrlich, who to this day still believes he was correct in his views on the ‘Population Bomb’ even though reality shows him to have been terribly wrong in his thinking, Borenstein can’t accept that his Malthusian views on climate are simply wrong. He’s an activist who has dug his heels in and has lost all sense of objectivity and suffers from confirmation bias. Borenstein’s activism feeds public mistrust and further damages his entire industry. Trust in news media is currently at the lowest levels in history and reporters like Borenstein are the reason why.

AndyG55
Reply to  Sundance
September 2, 2016 3:46 pm

“My fruit trees and garden have never been better, I haven’t needed to water my lawn in the last 10 years and there have been no water restrictions in over a decade. Illinois farmers are preparing for 2016 to be a new record in corn and soy bean harvest with the average corn yield expected to be 223 bushels/acre. in the 1980s average corn yield was 120 bushels/acre.”
Thus is the TOLL of slightly raised CO2 and temperature.
Truly horrible I tells ya !!!

PaulID
Reply to  AndyG55
September 3, 2016 11:49 am

Sure one day makes a climate now huh GRIFF?

Reply to  Sundance
September 2, 2016 11:15 pm

Totally agree. This year, my apple trees have produced the biggest sweetest fruit and more of it than I’ve seen in a decade.

Stephen Richards
Reply to  naggme
September 3, 2016 12:08 pm

Sorry ,guys. My most disastrous year ever. Lost all my crops. Potates still in the ground cos ground is too hard to dig. My flowers are dying, my lawn is dead and two of my cherry trees have died.
No rain in more than 3 months and temps 8C above normal throughout the period. Water use allowed only for hygiene.
Where am I?

TonyP
Reply to  Sundance
September 4, 2016 5:18 am

Exactly. He and his ilk suffer from confirmation bias because they’re Orwellian group-thinkers. They only hang out with people who think the same, work with people who think the same, live with people who think the same, invest with people who think the same…….and close their ears to anyone who dares speak against that which they believe in. Almost like the 3 monkeys except that instead of see no evil & speak no evil, they actively seek out anyone who they disagree with & attempt to destroy them first by shouting them down then by all kinds of wild accusations. To top it off they use the Soviet era Pravda-like media to assist.

MarkW
September 2, 2016 7:35 am

Journalists stopped being journalists about a generation ago.
They view their job as molding minds these days.

Caligula Jones
Reply to  MarkW
September 2, 2016 11:35 am

Well, I had an old editor that was pretty sure that reporters were there just to fill copy to keep the underwear ads from running too closely together…

PiperPaul
Reply to  MarkW
September 2, 2016 12:55 pm

Too many activists pretending to be journalists wanting to make a difference rather than just report the news and investigate anything “progressive”.

Neo
September 2, 2016 7:37 am

How many legs does a dog have if you call the tail a leg? Four. Calling a tail a leg doesn’t make it a leg. ~Abraham Lincoln

TonyP
Reply to  Neo
September 4, 2016 5:20 am

And who would have thought good old Abe was good for a chuckle now and then?

Mark from the Midwest
September 2, 2016 7:46 am

“As heat-trapping gases in the air intensify and hot temperature records shatter, global warming is taking a toll on Americans’everyday life : their gardens …. ”
It’s really taking a toll on my garden, I have so many tomatoes that we’re letting a lot of them just fall to the ground, does anyone want a 1/2 bushel? We have beefstakes and romas, pick your own.

Reply to  Mark from the Midwest
September 2, 2016 3:14 pm

One year, when my Father’s mini-farm had huge bumper crops of tomatoes and peppers.
After selling, giving away tomatoes and feeding damaged bruised fruit to the pigs, we turned the excess into tomato sauce.
And peeled the majority of wallpaper off of the kitchen walls boiling the sauce down then pressure cooking the jars to sterilize them.
Try to do a good deed and end up with more work; sanding the kitchen walls and repainting it. No more wallpaper!

Michael Jankowski
Reply to  Mark from the Midwest
September 2, 2016 3:44 pm

I hear the gardener lobby is very pro-Hillary.

TonyP
Reply to  Mark from the Midwest
September 4, 2016 5:21 am

Must be caused from all that poisonous gas, CO2. You know, that one they had the EPA declare a toxin.

September 2, 2016 7:49 am

more unsubstantiated, unquantifiable, unverifiable drive
Would like to have your kind permission to use this phrase.

Juan Slayton
September 2, 2016 7:49 am

Griff: Arctic sea ice is now the second lowest in the satellite record (i.e.second lowest since 1850)
Satellite Record? 1850?? Maybe you’re confusing NASA with Jules Verne…

Menicholas
Reply to  Juan Slayton
September 2, 2016 8:27 am

Griff wants to make sure no one confuses him with a credible person.

Greg
Reply to  Menicholas
September 2, 2016 9:16 am

Argumentum ex rectum!

MarkW
Reply to  Menicholas
September 2, 2016 1:17 pm

That didn’t take long.

Griff
Reply to  Juan Slayton
September 3, 2016 2:47 am

I beg your pardon: I’d had a couple of beers at that point… should have written…
‘since we have reliable records going back to 1850 now, we can say with some confidence then its the second lowest since 1850…’

Reply to  Griff
September 4, 2016 3:20 pm

Yes. the US has reliable records going back to 1850. But many European countries have records going back much further. I have the Swedish records somewhere. From memory, they show a cooling phase until about 1850 then a warming phase. It’s a great shame that US records started at the lowest point. My city has records from one site that has not been subject to urban influences. The average has increased only very slightly since the 1850s whereas those sites at the airport and in the city show the effect of urbanisation (re-radiation, heat generation, impaired heat transfer through sheltering and impaired mixing).

September 2, 2016 7:57 am

Michael McCallion · Brock University
So the “Boy Who Would Be King” -BWWBK- reaches into the Liberal Bag of Avoidance & Dirty Tricks and can only come up with the Same Old–Same Old– “it is the Conservative’s Fault”–
Not having Stephen Harper to blame the Smearedia finds the Especially Well-Liked Rona Ambrose as the Next Victim & Chokes; Duh !!–Duh !! -!! What do we Do? Please Please Laurentien Elites– what do we Do?
If we cannot find a Conservative to Blame the Rest Of Canada R.O.C. will tell the Tantrum-Foot Stamping future Leader of the Parti Quebecois Denis Coderre will be finding Himself as the First President of the Nation Of Quebec.
Please Laurentien Elite Give better Directions to BWWBK.

Alan the Brit
September 2, 2016 8:11 am

There is of course that mysterious letter of 1817, from Sir Joseph Banks to the lords of the admiralty, advising them of the ice that had encompassed much ofthe Arctic Circle, due to anew source of warmth, had become “much abated”!!! AND even the UNIPCC accepts that it was warmer in the 1940s up there than today!

Joel Snider
September 2, 2016 8:11 am

He’s an activist/advocate. Journalists went extinct around the turn of the century.
A direct cause of AGW.

E. Martin
September 2, 2016 8:12 am

“Is Seth Borenstein a journalist or a political activist?” Since the (highly paid*) directors of AP are all from various left wing news sources, it is highly unlikely that Borenstein and the rest of AP’s staff would be anything other than, political activists. * Mary Junck, AP CEO, is also the editor of the leftist St. Louis Post Dispatch and was paid over $2 million in 2015.”

Peter Pearson
Reply to  E. Martin
September 2, 2016 9:39 am

In case anybody has forgotten Seth Borensteins climate-warrior status, remember this email from the climategate leak:
On Jul 23, 2009, at 11:54 AM, Borenstein, Seth wrote:
Kevin, Gavin, Mike,
It’s Seth again. Attached is a paper in JGR today that Marc Morano
is hyping wildly. It’s in a legit journal. Whatchya think?
Seth

September 2, 2016 8:17 am

Reblogged this on Climatism and commented:
Excellent summary of the groupthink language and clickbait propaganda that is trotted out near verbatim, not only by AP journalist (eco-activist) Seth Borenstein, but by all who are swept up and poisoned by the “Climate Crisis Inc.” virus…

Bruce Cobb
September 2, 2016 8:18 am

Hilarious how Warmunists love to use Arctic sea ice as a proxy for warming, which not only is not doing what they want it to, but they still haven’t shown any link of the beneficial and unexciting warmup since the LIA to man, try as they might.

Gamecock
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
September 2, 2016 9:14 am

Nor have they presented a case as to why anyone should care. Arctic ice up – arctic ice down – no one dies – no one even knows . . .
without someone posting a graph.

John in Oz
Reply to  Gamecock
September 2, 2016 2:56 pm

Nor do they include the antarctic, even though they carry on about GLOBAL warming

Thomas Homer
September 2, 2016 8:24 am

” … and it is about 1.8 degrees warmer than a century ago”
Seriously? Of course he didn’t provide the units, but a 1.8 degree differential is causing all the horrors he listed? How much power can a Stirling Engine generate with a 1.8 degree differential? All that ice was teetering on a 1.8 degree differential?
Since I haven’t seen the scientific definition of “Climate Same”, which must be more desirable over “Climate Change”, I submit my suggestion:
Climate Same is when there is less than a 2 degree change in a contrived average value of Earth’s temperature over 100 years.

Menicholas
Reply to  Thomas Homer
September 2, 2016 8:30 am

What is a fear-mongering warmista to do in the face of such massive Climate Same?
Simples…yell louder!

TA
Reply to  Thomas Homer
September 2, 2016 9:58 am

Climate Same is what we have now.

Reply to  Thomas Homer
September 2, 2016 12:34 pm

+100

Resourceguy
September 2, 2016 8:52 am

He’s an activist. And only an activist would avoid context and other details surrounding the facts they use, e.g. El Nino.

Taylor Pohlman
Reply to  Resourceguy
September 2, 2016 9:27 am

Yes, missing context on many fronts. For example, what else do 2012 and 2016 share? How about massive low pressure storms churning the ice near to minima.
See Caleb’s site (Sunrise Swansong) for more on that.

Goldrider
Reply to  Resourceguy
September 2, 2016 1:32 pm

You forget–their Armageddon scene only WORKS in the absence of context! IN the correct context, ain’t nothin’ happenin’ at ALL.

Greg
September 2, 2016 9:19 am

” … and it is about 1.8 degrees warmer than a century ago”
Alarmist BS.
When the IPCC talks about global warming and limits of 2 deg C. that is not supposed to monthly or annual means, it’s long term change.

commieBob
September 2, 2016 9:37 am

Borenstein: Hot water has been killing coral as never before seen.

That could be true if nobody was previously looking.
Does anyone know if there is a graph of the number of coral scientists vs. time?

Reply to  commieBob
September 2, 2016 1:01 pm

No, but I do know SCUBA gear was invented by some French guy during WWII. Jaques something. Not much coral looking before that.

commieBob
Reply to  Bartleby
September 2, 2016 3:01 pm

One of my buddies thinks ‘Jaques something’ was an absolute arrogant twat. Buddy’s opinion was that ‘Jaques something’ claimed to have discovered things that other folks had known about for the last hundred years. Thanks for that, you’ve brightened my day.

Reply to  David Middleton
September 3, 2016 3:33 pm

David I most certainly understand your observation, being an avid reef explorer with quite a bit of experience, in fact I’m a commercial diver certified in underwater recovery using both open and closed circuit mixed gas. I’ve observed the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific reefs personally but haven’t been to oceans in the Southern Hemisphere.
Your thoughts echo mine, which are that the rapid advance of technology has led us to a place where we just don’t know what’s going on and everything we see is new. It happens both in measurement and plain old “being there to look”. If we haven’t been observing reefs at all for more than 70 years, everything we see is unprecedented. Then there’s satellites; before 1979 we just didn’t have them, and remote sensing technology is advancing in leaps and bounds.
It’s not good enough to say “we’ve never seen this before” because, as you note, we just weren’t looking. More to the point, we weren’t able to look.

Chris
Reply to  Bartleby
September 3, 2016 10:06 am

Have you heard of snorkeling?

Reply to  Chris
September 3, 2016 1:41 pm

Yes Chris I have heard of it. There have also been sponge divers that pre-dated SCUBA.
In your opinion, has the number of person hours spent underwater by humans increased or decreased significantly since the invention of SCUBA?

Reply to  Bartleby
September 3, 2016 2:32 pm

Bob writes: “One of my buddies thinks ‘Jaques something’ was an absolute arrogant twat.”
Bob, he was French. I thought I mentioned that? 😛

Reply to  Bartleby
September 3, 2016 3:44 pm

@Bob: In addition to being an arrogant twat, his mother was a hamster and his father smelt of elderberries…

Gunga Din
Reply to  commieBob
September 2, 2016 3:21 pm

That is a problem with some aspects of “science” today.
What has actually been observed and measured by someone vs what some theory says should have been observed and measured by someone if they were there.
Theories supporting theories. (Sometimes a theory has been used to justify an adjustment to an actual observation.)

Bob Denby
September 2, 2016 9:41 am

Don’t forget (can’t be overstated):
On Christiana Figueres — executive secretary of U.N.’s Framework Convention on Climate Change
02.10.15
Economic Systems: The alarmists keep telling us their concern about global warming is all about man’s stewardship of the environment. But we know that’s not true. A United Nations official has now confirmed this.
At a news conference last week in Brussels, Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of U.N.’s Framework Convention on Climate Change, admitted that the goal of environmental activists is not to save the world from ecological calamity but to destroy capitalism.
Figueres said, ”This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the Industrial Revolution.”

Oldseadog
September 2, 2016 9:42 am

u , u and u drivel.
IOW
Clotted tosh and curdled balderdash.
(It is the warming that causes the clotting and curdling. Better to keep the balderdash and tosh in the fridge where no-one can see it and laugh about it.))

Steve Oregon
September 2, 2016 9:47 am

Dear Seth,
You have a defect that is identified here.
http://www.livescience.com/18678-incompetent-people-ignorant.html
In short it says, “dumb people are too dumb to know it”.
It’s a malleable and presumptuous study that sets up an assessment of ignorant people that is aimed at skeptics and people making bad voting choices.
You know, climate change deniers who are too dumb to vote for Hillary.
There’s a big fatal flaw in the presumption. A flaw that prevents you from recognizing it. t.
“…their total lack of expertise renders them unable to recognize their deficiency”.
” “people’s inability to assess their own knowledge is the cause of many of society’s ills, including climate change denialism.”
“even if a person has come to a very logical conclusion about whether climate change is real or not based on their evaluation of the science, “they’re really not in a position to evaluate the science.”
“Along the same lines, people who aren’t talented in a given area tend not to be able to recognize the talents or good ideas of others, from co-workers to politicians. This may impede the democratic process, which relies on citizens having the capacity to identify and support the best candidate or policy.”
“The ultimate takeaway of the research is the reminder that you really may not be as great as you think you are. And you might not be right about the things you believe you’re right about. And if you try to joke about all this, you might not come off as funny as you think.”
The fatal flaw is beyond the obvious that the dumbest are the least qualified to decide who is dumb.
It’s the absence of any measure of honesty applied. People lie. Ignorance is greatly exacerbated by dishonesty.
So as people chew through your gibberish it is not just ignorance that jumps off the page. It’s the rampant dishonesty that reveals your defect.
So, yes it’s true. Dumb people are too dumb to know they are dumb.
But highly skilled yet incompetent people who are also pathological liars are ignorant by choice.
That is much worse than just being dumb.
You may find personal comfort in pretending to have another human defect, “it’s not a lie, if you believe it”.
But liars of your caliber share a Hillary disease that is incurable and untreatable.
That leaves you earning an Alex Epstein Tweet. That is all.

Matt Bergin
Reply to  Steve Oregon
September 2, 2016 1:50 pm

Agree 100% I always say that I am almost smart enough to know how little I know.

Gunga Din
Reply to  Matt Bergin
September 2, 2016 3:29 pm

Reminds me of one off my favorite secular quotes.
“Everyone is ignorant, only on different subjects.” ― Will Rogers
Reminds me of this also. I don’t know who said it.
“It’s what you learn after you think you you know it all that matters.”

Gunga Din
Reply to  Matt Bergin
September 2, 2016 3:43 pm

“It’s what you learn after you think you you know it all that matters.”
That was a typo.
I wasn’t referring to “Sybil”. 😎

Joel Snider
Reply to  Steve Oregon
September 2, 2016 3:03 pm

Well, he’s here as a salesman. That’s pretty obvious.

KTM
September 2, 2016 10:02 am

Go to USCRN, graph the data for august since 2005. Zero warming.
How are Americans already being impacted by warming when America isn’t warming?
To claim that Americans are grappling with warming then showing a chart of global temperatures I’d absurd. Show the us chart with zero warming and then tell us how horrible things are in your own mind.

Alan Robertson
September 2, 2016 10:15 am

All of Griff‘s hand waving about Arctic sea ice decline since The Little Ice Age merits a big- So What?

Leo Smith
Reply to  Alan Robertson
September 2, 2016 11:03 am

Griff is a paid concern troll.

Bryan A
Reply to  Leo Smith
September 2, 2016 2:40 pm

Must be funded by Big Government. Perhaps a RICO suit is in order

Griff
Reply to  Leo Smith
September 3, 2016 2:45 am

Ho! If I wanted to be paid, I’d get a gig with the Heartland Institute….
https://news.vice.com/article/the-fossil-fuel-industry-paid-this-scientist-to-deny-human-caused-climate-change

stevekeohane
Reply to  Leo Smith
September 3, 2016 8:56 am

So someone who actually works for a living is evil, having been “deeply funded by industry interests” with $1.2M, but not those by the hundreds of billions of dollars deeply funding government propaganda.

Chris
Reply to  Leo Smith
September 3, 2016 10:07 am

“hundreds of billions of dollars deeply funding government propaganda.:
It’s not remotely close to that for scientific research.

Griff
Reply to  Alan Robertson
September 3, 2016 2:42 am

Does it? Why?
There isn’t any reason to account for it except global warming and it is definitely, provably now at a much lower level than in over a century, decreasing at a fast rate, not part of a natural cycle, not recovering, etc.
Its a great big smoking gun clue to what’s going on…

stevekeohane
Reply to  Griff
September 3, 2016 9:06 am

Which is what? The ice returned 800 years ago after being melted. Now it is melting, BFD. Where’s the clue?

Chris
Reply to  Griff
September 3, 2016 10:09 am

And what is the cause of the melting? Saying the words “the end of the LIA is the cause” is NOT an explanation.

Stephen Richards
Reply to  Griff
September 3, 2016 12:11 pm

Choosing Heartland over government is another very bad choice. Not very good at lifestyle decisions, Griff ?

September 2, 2016 10:24 am

Perhaps he needed a strong piece for his application to:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/08/27/job-of-the-week-new-york-times-climate-editor/

Bruce Cobb
September 2, 2016 10:26 am

Seth Wrongenstein.

Caligula Jones
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
September 2, 2016 11:44 am

Well, as they say, if it bleeds, it leads.
Real hacks know you have to occasionally add a real fact or two just in case you are called on your BS and you can at least point out that you got SOME stuff right.
In the case of climate alarmism though, knowing that Generation Scared won’t question anything (and to their credit, have never been taught the skills to do so), you just reel off every scary pessimistic speck of “science”, no matter how speculative, unverifiable or realistic.
Double-checking? They don’t have time for…oh look, its Pokémon!

Goldrider
Reply to  Caligula Jones
September 2, 2016 1:34 pm

That’s what happens when Everyone Gets a Trophy and All the Children are Above Average! Generation Special Snowflake!

John W. Garrett
September 2, 2016 10:56 am

It’s about time somebody called attention to Borenstein’s incessant proselytizing.
The guy is either an incompetent regurgitator of press releases or not very bright. The one thing he isn’t is unbiased and non-partisan. He violates every tenet of what journalism claims to be about.
Unfortunately, there actually are people who swallow his bilge.

Reply to  John W. Garrett
September 2, 2016 12:46 pm

What makes you think those two things are mutually exclusive?

John W. Garrett
Reply to  mikerestin
September 2, 2016 7:07 pm

You make a good point.

September 2, 2016 1:34 pm

Stopped reading fantasy stories written by Seth some time ago. He is one of the few writers that can get “and” and “the” wrong in a story.

LarryD
September 2, 2016 1:35 pm

“think of them as Democratic operatives with bylines”

TA
Reply to  LarryD
September 3, 2016 4:34 am

Yes.

M Seward
September 2, 2016 4:17 pm

“Is Seth Borenstein a journalist or a political activist? ”
No, he is a Gaiantologist.

September 2, 2016 4:41 pm

For those who want to play for blood…..I”m your Huckleberry

September 2, 2016 5:26 pm

If a guy with some tins of food, dogs, and a sled covered all of the Arctic for sea ice measurements as accurate as today to combine them all as a pile of Mann-style dumb numbers, I would have to ask–does a dozen dogs, sled and couple cases of food and a tent cost $450 million? Since I presume not, and the two are claimed to be equally adequate to combine these two data sets, why are we using satellites? Find the grandson of that guy and give him a contract for $10 k.

Chris
September 2, 2016 5:52 pm

Borenstein is the worst

mib8
Reply to  Chris
September 5, 2016 7:46 am

A lot of the wire service reporting is hmmmm, shallow. They just don’t look beyond the skim that their sources spoon-feed them. They don’t have/take time to do much digging, weighing the various factors and coming up with a reasoned analysis. And even when they do dig a little, they usually look more for corroboration of “what everyone knows” in their circle of sources rather than info that contradicts or leads to a different POV.
But occasionally they do a little better. It shows through in many subject areas: climate, weather, biochemistry, economics. And individual reporters admit to their limitations from time to time…though usually with little inclination or effort to change. Their impressions are sticky.

Toneb
September 3, 2016 12:34 am

David:
You say ….
“and all of the non-Hockey Stick climate reconstructions show that this warming began around 1600 AD (plus or minus a couple of decades). ”
I am not aware of there being any “non hockey-stick” reconstructions that show anything of the sort.
That would require there to be instrumental observation at that time. The earliest I know of is the CET that begins in 1659, and even that had infilling from non-instrumental means along with observations made from inside un-heated rooms.

Richard Keen
September 3, 2016 12:37 am

Borenstein has been an idiot for years. 3.5 years ago he still hadn’t learned that ice melts at 0 C and snow cannot form above that temperature.
Whac-a-moling Seth Borenstein at AP over his erroneous extreme weather claims
Posted on February 19, 2013
Comments on Yesterday’s paean to Global Warming
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/02/19/whac-a-moling-seth-borenstein-at-ap-over-his-erroneous-extreme-weather-claims/

Roy
September 3, 2016 1:31 am

Recently I saw a link (it might have been in a comment somewhere in this blog) about David Melgueiro, a Portuguese navigator who it is claimed navigated the North East Passage in the years 1660-1662. If those claims are true they imply that the amount of ice in the Arctic must have been unusually low then. Here is that link and another one about David Melgueiro.
http://ecotretas.blogspot.co.uk/p/david-melgueiro-english.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Melgueiro

David J Wendt
September 3, 2016 3:02 am

Over the years I have attempted, with a notable lack of success, to introduce the notion from economics of Opportunity Costs to the continuing blathering about climate. To perhaps oversimplify, Opportunity Costs are the costs of all the real and meaningful things we cannot invest in because we have squandered our limited assets on unproductive follies. The most pointed story I have come across that really illustrates the kind of potential “catastrophe” we may be facing due to the unconscionable waste of these fruitless but ruinously expensive efforts to line the pockets of all the crony fascists, I refuse to call them capitalists, comes from the tale of how Warren Buffett came to own the company that became the titular brand of his massive financial empire. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkshire_Hathaway
In the early Sixties Buffett made some speculative investments in BH stock even though its core textile business was declining. When BH’s corporate leadership tried to buy him off he felt that they were trying to cheat him and he got mad and decided to buy the company and fire the then CEO, which he did. Dealing with the declining fortunes of the textile business delayed his entering into the business model that lead to his eventual fortune.
“In 2010, Buffett claimed that purchasing Berkshire Hathaway was the biggest investment mistake he had ever made, and claimed that it had denied him compounded investment returns of about $200 billion over the subsequent 45 years.[9] Buffett claimed that had he invested that money directly in insurance businesses instead of buying out Berkshire Hathaway (due to what he perceived as a slight by an individual), those investments would have paid off several hundredfold.”
I haven’t been able to find the price he paid to acquire BH, but I doubt it was more than $100 million. This climate boondoggle looks to be running up a tab in the tens of trillions in the present to be compounded, not over 45 years, but over 85 years, which by Mr. Buffett”s estimate indicates that by the time we get to the turn of the next century humanity will be facing a shortfall in global wealth of Quadrillions of dollars due solely to all these “green” efforts which have proved to be green only for the pockets of politicians and there cronies.

Craig Loehle
September 3, 2016 6:23 am

There was a recent article showing that over the past 30 years 80% of Americans are experiencing better weather (less stressful, less extreme). So much for “already suffering”. Borenstein is using “future present tense”: models say it is going to happen therefore it is already happening.

troe
September 3, 2016 6:34 am

Climate propaganda by AP, BBC, ABC, and other National services is old hat. They obviously fixate on a current event spinning it into the larger narrative. Whatever happened to the increased tornadoes and hurricanes predicted for the US? Malarkey.
Meanwhile in the real world government sponsered Tesla is struggling to bail in government sponsered Solar City. These entities are not the same as dam and highway building by taxpayers. They are the White Sea Canal of our time.

Uncle Gus
September 3, 2016 7:26 am

I’m not familiar with Borenstein but it occurs to me that someone could put together a pro-warmist article using ONLY those warmist tropes that have been thoroughly exploded, and get it accepted even by supposedly science-savvy authorities. That would be by way of being a prank, though, and this guy sounds serious.
Only today I heard someone refer to “Saving the Planet”, even though the old global meltdown version of climate change hysteria went out of fashion twenty years ago. Nowadays it’s rising sea levels and the spread of Ebola, and the planet is going to be fine. Yet that phrase lives on, like a sort of vermiform appendix. I’ve also noticed the spread of the use of the word “Eco” as an adjective, often in situations where it clearly has nothing to do with the environment and just means something like “doubleplusgood”.
The whole Climate Change meme seems to be disintegrating into a mess of catchphrases.

rtj1211
September 3, 2016 7:30 am

I have to say that if I were wanting to further debate in a sensible manner right now, I would convene a public discussion about one central question:
‘What general range of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere do we believe will allow life on earth to flourish most effectively in the future?’
That question removes blame games, it removes fixations about particular targets, it doesn’t claim that carbon dioxide is evil and most of all it doesn’t contend that it’s the only thing that is important.
It allows experts, the public alike to discuss what the world might look like at different carbon dioxide concentrations (in fact the question to be asked is just what difference there actually will be between 250 and 750ppm of carbon dioxide) and affords the chance to discuss what the world looked like in the past when carbon dioxide levels were in the thousands of ppm….
The current debate looks to me like farmers fighting nature to grow food.
The best farmers always work with nature to grow food.
Perhaps debates should focus on working with the natural world, rather than trying to fight it, eh??

Anna Keppa
September 3, 2016 8:57 am

Griff: “There isn’t any reason to account for it except global warming…”
Ahhh! The fallacious “Argument from Ignorance”! IOW, “what else can it be”?
Thanks, Griff, for exposing your “reasoning”.

SMC
September 3, 2016 9:32 am

I’m surprised Seth didn’t drop by for a flogging.

Chris
September 3, 2016 10:22 am

Borenstein: Hot water has been killing coral as never before seen. Scientists have connected man-made climate change to extreme weather, including deadly heat waves, droughts and flood-inducing downpours.
Daivd Middleton said:”Unsubstantiated, unquantified drivel.”
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00097.1
Substantiated. Quantified.

John_C
Reply to  Chris
September 3, 2016 11:29 am

Chris, having read the linked piece, I feel your comment’s last words need more exposition.
eg: Substantiated that this is Quantified drivel. (fify)
Note that they show their model against the observations of 1910-1939, but not the period of interest. Note also that this is a models all the way down study. There is no section showing statistics indicating greater incidence of “deadly heatwaves, droughts and flood-inducing downpours.”

Chris
Reply to  John_C
September 4, 2016 12:21 am

John_C – fair enough. I was trying to post a link to a paper that was a subset of the overall BAMS supplement, but it kept pointing to the entire doc. Here is a story about the Australian heat wave of 2013. 5 different groups studied the data, and all concluded that carbon emissions were a major factor in that heat wave: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/australias-2013-heatwave-due-to-climate-change-researchers-conclude-20140930-10o1sj.html

Chris
Reply to  David Middleton
September 4, 2016 9:04 am

Of course you have to use models – it’s complete and utter drivel to think there is any other way. Say the earth warmed by 5C during a single year. You still need to build a model that looks at other possible causes- orbital changes, insolation changes etc. What, do you think the cause just writes itself on the sky?
Let’s look at this a different way. What would convince you that AGW is real?

Chris
Reply to  Chris
September 4, 2016 7:50 pm

The models match the measured results quite well, actually. http://www-users.york.ac.uk/~kdc3/papers/robust2015/background.html

Chris
Reply to  Chris
September 5, 2016 9:22 am

“Abject nonsense” – lol. What specifically is causing the warming, if not anthropogenic? Oh, wait, I know – natural causes. That’s the scientifically and intellectually vacuous grab bag used to describe all changes – whether it be increased flooding, droughts, temperature increases or the melting of the Arctic.
I’m still waiting for your answer on what would convince you that AGW is real.

Chris
Reply to  Chris
September 6, 2016 2:09 am

The advocates of the AGW hypothesis have proven their case to the satisfaction of the vast majority of practicing climatologists, the world’s scientific organizations, governments, and the Fortune 1000. It may not be to your satisfaction, or others on WUWT, or some climatologists. But science doesn’t move forward based on requiring every single scientist or concerned amateur scientist to buy in. It just doesn’t.
I’m still waiting for your answer as to what would convince you that substantial warming due to AGW is occurring.

Chris
September 6, 2016 9:15 am

So let me see here. 66.73% of papers take no position. Here is an example of one: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02241.x/abstract It discusses the impact of warming waters of the Fraser River in BC on salmon mortality. Because it says “climate warming” and not AGW, it would be put into your 66,73% bucket. You, in your math, take that as a “no” vote, or, at a minimum, as a “not yes” vote. That is a false conclusion, we don’t know the author’s opinion, yet you are counting it is a “definitely not yes”, which is wrong.
That is the reason that the author did not include those papers. If a political survey was done on who folks wanted for President, and 20% said Trump, 20% said Clinton, and 60% did not fill out a position, it would be incorrect to say that 80% do not want Trump. But that is exactly what you are doing, and it is incorrect.

Chris
September 6, 2016 10:00 am

“That’s not even close to what I’m saying.”
Yes, it is. Above your first graphic, you say “Furthermore, 0.5% is not a vast majority.” You’ve done exactly what I said you did. You took only those who explicitly endorsed AGW as being the percentage of all scientists who explicitly endorse AGW.
“Cook et. al,. would conclude from the above that Clinton has the support of 88% of the electorate.”
Nope, that is not what they did. From Cook’s 2013 paper: “Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.” Your statement is incorrect, Cook et al did not do what you said they did. The specifically qualified it as to those who took a position on AGW.
If we take out those who don’t take an opinion, we have .5% + 7.7% + 24.4% that endorse AGW, and .5% + .1% + .1% that minimize or reject AGW. That’s 32.9% compared to .7% – gee, no consensus there. If you want a specific poll, that’s fine, then use a direct survey on the topic: http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/01/19/eco.globalwarmingsurvey/
Of climatologists who are actively publishing, the figure is still 97%.

Chris
September 6, 2016 10:38 am

“Of the nearly 12,000 papers surveyed by Cook et al., only 64 explicitly endorsed and quantified the consensus.”
So what? Do papers on cancer treatments start out by saying “just to be clear, we think cancer is bad for you”? Of course not. The paper on water temperatures in the Fraser river is a perfect example. “Mean summer water temperatures in the Fraser River (British Columbia, Canada) have increased by ∼1.5 °C since the 1950s. In recent years, record high river temperatures during spawning migrations of Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) have been associated with high mortality events, raising concerns about long-term viability of the numerous natal stocks faced with climate warming.”
The topic of the paper is not “is AGW occurring, and what is the contribution of AGW to total warming” – so why would you expect the authors to mention that?
“No discipline has a better understanding the “nuances” than meteorologists and no discipline has a better understanding of the “scientific basis of long-term climate processes” than geologists.”
A person with a BS in meteorology has a better understanding of the nuances of atmospheric sciences than a PhD in atmospheric sciences – that is what you are saying. And your evidence for that is?
Geologists study long term climate processes as they impact the earth’s crust and elements. So what? That has nothing to do with the equations and principles that define the atmosphere. Here’s a geology track – no classes on atmospheric sciences whatsoever. https://geo.ku.edu/general-geology-track

Chris
Reply to  David Middleton
September 6, 2016 10:16 pm

Regarding the 97%, as I noted, Cook qualified it to be those whose papers took a position. That is factual. So yes, for someone to short-hand it to leave the last part out is not accurate. On the other hand, what you did with your math was wrong – saying .5% implies that 99.5% do not believe that AGW is real and substantially contributing to warming. As I noted, it is preposterous to expect climatologists to start out every paper with “just to be clear, we think that AGW is real and that the temperature impacts are significant”.
With regards to your comments on geologists, the level of knowledge about sedimentary processes is not in dispute. But how exactly does that knowledge relate to the non-linear differential equations used to model the atmosphere? It’s a different knowledge base entirely. I have a Masters Degree in Electrical Engineering, with a specialty on control systems. Even though I took undergrad courses in Power Systems, I would not consider myself remotely capable of understanding the complex models used in modeling and designing power plants and grids.
Regarding your charts, why are you using satellite and balloon data only? Tsk tsk, there is a wealth of ground based data, and since we are concerned about temperatures at ground level, that should be used. What is your proof that satellite measurements are an accurate indicator of surface temperatures?

Reply to  Chris
September 7, 2016 4:00 am

Chris–why use balloon and satellite data? UHI and Thomas Karl.

John
September 6, 2016 11:34 pm

Ah, I read the carbonbrief article and it actually starts off quite well. “The main cause of this rapid decline is rising air temperatures. The Arctic is warming twice as quickly as the global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. Other factors, such as wind patterns and ocean warming, also play a role in the diminishing sea ice.”. I don’t think anyone would disagree.
“However, the early years of this record had significant gaps. Almost no ice information was collected during the second world war, for example. These gaps were filled by using the long-term averages for each month.” One might say that if 2007, 2012 and 2016 can be lows, would it not be possible that something similar could have occurred in one of the many “significant gaps”? Averaging based on previous years when you don’t have data is just not real or accurate. It is wild guess work, at best.
Where it goes into pure speculation is when it starts using ship entries and visual observations dating back to 1850 as “evidence” and as a sea ice reconstruction. It is cherry picking and then trying to compare those methods to the satellite era in terms of accuracy.
Science, indeed.

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