Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Paris, France recently suffered severe flooding. Naturally Climate Scientists have blamed the May 2016 Paris floods on Climate, though it was admitted the floods fell well short of the Great Flood of 1910.
Flooding began first on smaller rivers including the Yvette and Loing — south of Paris (Figure 1). The Loing River, a tributary of the Seine, rose to levels not seen since 1982 but still short of the catastrophic January 1910 Paris floods when the Seine reached 8.0 meters (26.2 feet). The Seine – which runs directly through the heart of Paris – peaked at 6.1 meters (20 feet ) above its normal height during the night of June 3rd — a 34-year high. Farther south, in the heart of the Loire basin, tributaries of the Loire River, including the Retreve and the Sauldre Rivers, reached 50-year highs between May 31st and June 1st, flooding highways and the historic 16th-century Chambord castle. The timing of this flood was quite unusual as virtually all previous floods along the Seine and Loire River basins have occurred during winter (as opposed to spring) due to buildup of excess water over several months during the winter. Only two instances in the historical record — July 1659 and June 1856 — show flooding in months other than December, January, February or March. Clearly, this event appears to be a combination of a very wet month of May in general, coupled with very high 3-day rainfall totals in particular. Managing resulting flood risk is particularly challenging at this time of year because many reservoirs are already close to full to prepare for a typically dry summer season.
This year’s May rainfall amounts were exceptional at some stations in France (see Figure 2). The Paris-Montsouris station, recording 179 mm (7 inches), received roughly 3 months worth of rain in one month. The previous record of 133 mm (5.2 inches) was set in 1992. Orleans saw 181 mm (7.1 inches), also about 3 months of precipitation in one month. The old record was 148 mm (5.8 inches) set back in 1985.
Read more: https://wwa.climatecentral.org/analyses/european-rainstorms-may-2016/
What is the history of flooding in Paris? Information on floods is a little difficult to find, perhaps because I don’t speak French, but the following from a critical OECD report on Parisian flood risk preparedness is revealing;
While the possibility of a major flood of the Seine River may initially seem remote, it comes back regularly and arouses public attention as was the case during the spring of 2013 when floods took place upstream of the Seine River basin. Even though the flooding did not cause any major damage, it reopened the question of risk management and the region’s vulnerability to flooding. The prospect of a historic event is a key concern for French risk management stakeholders. The 1910 flood was particularly destructive in the context of an era marked by industrial and technological progress. Such events illustrate the difficulties societies have in compromising between economic development and the management of increased vulnerability of society and multiple economic sectors.
1924 and 1955 also saw major flood events in the Paris region and in the entire Seine basin. Nevertheless, the lack of a significant flood for more than 60 years tends to lessen the memory of risk. Seine floods are characterised by their slow progression and, following on a period of submersion which may be very long. For instance, the waters took almost two months to subside in 1910. Even if the effect of climate change on the frequency and extent of the Seine floods is still uncertain, greater floods than the one of 1910 are still possible, such as the one that occurred in 1658. In other countries, many recent floods significantly exceeded the 100-year levels. This was the case with the floods in Queensland, Bangkok, and Pakistan; as well as during the coastal flooding following hurricane Sandy in New-York, and the 2013 floods in Germany. The EU Floods Directive uses the 1000-year frequency as a reference for extreme events.
Read more: https://www.oecd.org/gov/risk/Flood-risk-management-seine-river-executive-summary.pdf
On the basis of the OECD report, the claim that the 2016 flood was climate related seems a little thin. Not only was the 2016 flood significantly less severe than a comparable flood which occurred in 1910, the 2016 flood occurred after a 60 year absence of major Paris floods, after major floods in 1910, 1924 and 1955.
There does not appear to be any evidence which supports the theory that climate is somehow exacerbating the frequency or severity of flooding in Paris.
UPDATE: They say a picture says a thousand words, this one not only does that, but speaks with authority. Thanks to Josh for the image, originally sourced from the BBC here. – Anthony
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One can be sure that increased urbanization since 1910 has increased runoff due to impregnable surfaces and exaggerated stream/river flooding. Just like any urbanized area.
Yes but compensated by the dams and buffer zones build to regulate flows.
Where are these dams ?
Let me guess! Floods usually occur in late winter or early spring in Paris, so they allow the reservoirs to fill after that. The extreme rainfall came later this year so there was no way to hold back water. Best laid plans of mice and Paris rats….!
You forgot the /sarc tag ?
I guess floods are always a little climate related. Whether in 1658 or 1910. Zero evidence to make 2016 any more “special” than 1658.
Sheesh! Climate, weather; it’s hard to keep track. Floods, erosion, rain, sun, we must all be doomed. Nothing like this has ever happened before.
Although now that I think of it, there are some gullies in Northern Arizona that are a mile deep and dozens of miles long, formed over millions of years. There must have been an awful lot of SUVs driving around back in those days.
Suvasaurus emissions!
Versatile thing, global warming. Blame it, and the decision to leave the upstream dams mostly full does not become a bad choice.
I stubbed my toe this morning. Damn climate change!
Climate Change, only a moron would make that claim, only an idiot would believe it.
According to the AME summary of the “current state of understanding”, there is a connection between SST and rainfall amounts in the United States. (This is based on computer models.) http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00066.1
“Climate models forced by observed SSTs indicate that drought conditions are more likely to occur over most of the continental United States when the middle and eastern tropical Pacific is colder than normal (La Niña) or when the North Atlantic is warmer than normal (positive Atlantic multidecadal oscillation), with the greatest likelihood of drought occurring when both of these conditions are present (Schubert et al. 2009). The same models forced by a global warming trend SST pattern produce overall warming over land with substantial regional variations but no coherent precipitation response.”
Summarizing the entire report, with respect to multidecadal SST patterns:
1) The biggest source of rainfall variations is unknown and natural
2) The second biggest source is natural decadal and mult-decadal ocean SST oscillations
3) The primary anthropogenic contributor to rainfall variations is land-use/land-cover changes.
4) Greenhouse gases have effectively no significant contribution to precipitation changes.
5) This is all based on testing five computer models.
No offense. Do us all a favour. Throw that computer off a pier and measure the sea level change!
From the Telegraph:
1910 photos with slider 2016 photos
Cool!
Well done John. The 1910 was a total disaster. My friends are a mite older than me but still recall the flood of 1910. The schools spoke about it in lessons.
– 1658: on February 27, 1658 the Seine rose 8.14 meters (26.7 feet) above its normal level
– 1740: on December 26, 1740 the Seine rose 7.23 meters (23.7 feet) above its normal level
– 1910: on January 28, 1910 the Seine rose 7.80 meters (25.6 feet) above its normal level
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1050727
– June 3, 2016: The Seine was expected to peak in Paris sometime later Friday at about 5 meters (16 feet, 3 inches) above normal
The first 2 were probably measured in king’s feet (pieds du Roi) at the time.
This year was apparently the coldest and the most-rain-interrupted Roland Garros French Tennis Open. Played in Paris in May, that implies the excess rain was associated with unusual cold rather than warmth. If any of the WUWT readership are into their tennis, they would have seen “unprecedented” weather-induced stuff like many lady tennis players playing in knee-length leggings and tracksuit tops rather than their usual attire.
How dare they! The only reason to watch women’s tennis is for their usual attire.
We have had our coldest mai in memory (80 yr) but farmers here still say its cyclical. They live to a good age here.
Using flood crests to compare flood events to those in the past is utterly bogus, unless there have been no significant flood control, land use. or topographical changes in the interim, something that seems highly unlikely for the Paris area, or the measurements are adjusted to account for the changes.
my finding is that all rainfall works just like a clock
– the pendulum of a clock that is –
as an example , see here;
That’s interesting! I could be a smart ass and point out that it rains and then it stops but I see something more to it. It reminds me of my reverse weather forecast theory, by which I assume that for forecasts more than 4 days out the forecast is actually the least likely outcome.
These rainfall charts indicate that the upcoming trend will most likely be opposite to the present trend. That has value! Some areas may be more erratic than others but I’m sure this applies in most places.
My first official prediction- Paris will dry out now!
Hello Henry,
I see you’re still using the rainfall from Bushy Bend Farm.
Here’s an update for you for the last 2 years
2014 518.1 mm
2015 424.6 mm
Another 2 years significantly below the average of about 600, and the veld looked almost desert-like in January.
The el Nino may have been a contributing factor but the correlation is rather tenuous. It first received wide publicity in 1982-83, when a serious drought coincided with a strong el Nino, but the myth was dispelled after 719 mm fell in the el Nino year of 1998.
Of even more interest this summer was the unusual heat.
IN 94 years of record-keeping – of which the last 20 are close to acceptable standards – the highest reading was 101 degrees F (38.5 C) . This summer 40 C was reached twice in December and 40.5 on 6th January, which also broke the record for the highest minimum, at 23.5 C
From all accounts, you had it even hotter in Pretoria?
True. Pretoria was warm. But now I m in Clarens and it is very cold. I will give a detailed reply later. Henry
Hallo Richard
it seems I did get some data up until 2015, from Potch, I am not sure anymore from where.
The difference between yours and mine won’t make a difference.
My theory to explain the heat of the last 2 years in South Africa has to do with the pendulum theory. Namely, as the highest point was reached in 2014, just like a clock, the pendulum stands still. It has to move and turn back the other way. As it stands, up in the air, as a matter of speaking, there is less “weather”…..Somehow the differential between the pole and the equator remains more unchanged and there are less clouds and rain.
I am sure that if you will look, you will find more sunshine hours in Pretoria, that caused the extra heat.
Nevermind all of that, AGW theory has it that the heat on earth is caused by entrapment of heat by GHG which would drive minimum temperature up.
However, as you can see below, in southern Africa there never was any increase in minimum temperatures.
So, there is no man made global warming. All warming, cooling and weather is natural.
http://www.vigicrues.gouv.fr/
For a view of origins of french rivers
Upon reflection, a better, and probably closer to the truth, title for this blog post might be “Paris area flood control improvements since 1910 reduce effects of climate-change amplified flooding”.
The “Paris urban area” grew from over 4M in 1910 to about 12.5M today, much of it right along waterways
. It should be much more flood-prone today.
Michael I dont think the Rives (banks) have changed much since then. Not sure, though
I don’t know what “progress” was made in the drainage basin of the Seine over the last hundred years.
But, where I live, flood control measures and maintenance of the drainage system WORSENED over the last 50. As demonstrated by the very first photograph in this article on the topic. (link below)
I am not sure what evidence you have that has lead you to conclude that there have been “flood control improvements” in the “Paris area”.
Do you have any evidence to support that?
Where I am, the situation just got worse and worse as land-owners and drainage engineers found their hands tied by the actions of bureaucrats and pressure groups, asserting their preferred ideological obsessions.
I have witnessed this phenomenon with my own eyes and ears.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/10644101/How-Somerset-Levels-river-flooded-after-it-was-not-dredged-for-decades.html
There was some work on the books for the bretons to ease flooding but again I dont know if the money was ever found. As you probably know funding infra structure projects in france is quite weird at times.
Upon reflection, a better, and probably closer to the truth, title for this blog post might be….
Climate change made the flood 10 ft lower…..
Actually, this particular comment was meant to be facetious; note the word “probably”. I have no idea as to the state of flood control in the Paris region. My previous comment regarding the validity of comparing of historical flood events, however, is in all seriousness.
Climate Scientists/Scamsters never let facts ruin a good story.
from: notalotofpeopleknowthat blog
La Nina has much to do with large rain events. Their major flood in 1910 was at the bottom of a lengthy La Nina. Their major flood in 1955 was close to the bottom of a lengthy La Nina. The flood in 1963 was in the middle of a moderate La Nina. Their flood in 1982 was an exception as it occurred at the beginning of an El Nino. The flood in 1924 happened during a moderate La Nina event in the second half of the year. The major floods in 1910,1955, and 1963 occurred during a 30+ year cold phase.
Also of interest is that California and the Pacific Northwest experienced heavy to major floods in 1909, 1955/56, and 1964/65, the La Nina storms. Then California had a heavy flood in 1982/83 during an El Nino year. It looks to me that when there is a heavy rain event on the western coast of Europe that the western coast of the US will soon experience a similar event. I have seen correlating events in heavy rains in the UK are then followed within a year by heavy rains on the Pacific Northwest. So my forecast from September of 2014 for a major flood on the Pacific Northwest for this winter is looking very likely to turn into a reality. If that happens then I will also have a good forecast for when the upcoming solar minimum will occur.
My graphic above shows that most extreme floods in Paris since 1870. In the early twentieth century they were more frequent and extreme then the periods before or after. Since 1960 the lack of extreme floods could be due to a combination of two factors. First is a result of flood mitigation measures put in place after the 1910 flood, and which took decades to complete. Second is that extreme rainfall was less. Based on the real world flood evidence it does not appear that extreme rainfall is becoming worse as the climate modellers are saying. The check is the rainfall records.
More details are at my blog.
https://manicbeancounter.com/2016/06/05/are-the-paris-floods-due-to-climate-changing-for-the-worse/
Another graphic is the top 10 recorded floods in Paris. For comparison the recent flood peaked at 6.1 metres, 0.5 metres (20 inches) below the 10th worst flood on record.
Interesting. Note the two floods of 1920, 1924; between 1920 and 1925 the ENSO regions were mostly in negative territory. The flood in March of 1876 occurred at the bottom of a -2C La Nina…http://www.museothyssen.org/en/thyssen/ficha_obra/689
Then two of the listed floods struck during the Dalton Minimum, 1799 and 1802. Not sure what the ENSO conditions were for those years.
The Pont Saint-Bénézet, aka the Pont d’Avignon, built late-12th century, destroyed 40 years later, then rebuilt with 22 stone arches was finally abandoned mid-17th century with 4 arches remaining. Repeated floods of the Rhone kept bashing those arches down, and I guess they got sick of rebuilding them. Climate change, no doubt.
Knights on SUVs again. I spoke to lady Hélène about that.
I suppose I’m piling on, but in my personal top three climate-related news absurdities sits the the class of statements to the effect that AGW is evidenced by the claim that so and so rainfall/flood/drought/whatever is the highest/worst since 18XX/19XX. A statement more calculated to define an absence of climate “change” cannot be imagined. Yet it is enthusiastically given prominence in the pro-CAGW media and alarmist blogs. Is it too much to ask for some basic logic here?
Fraid so !
Flooding is tied to weather but is neither a weather nor climate event. Rainfall over a catchment is a weather event, but the hydrological impact has much to do with the level of development within the catchment area. Comparing Seine water levels passing through Paris in 2016 vs 1910 is apples-to-oranges. Even upstream of Paris, there are decent-sized cities along waterways.
For 15 years I lived in a flood plain, a small tourist town in Wyoming, Jackson. The Flat Creek runs through the center of town and can very easily overflow it’s banks during a sudden winter melt coupled with valley rain, or during the spring melt after a good snow year.
The problem isn’t climate, it’s pavement, a problem I expect France is also facing. It’s very easy (and somewhat simple minded) to blame weather or climate on “the problem”, however that just doesn’t hold water (yes, I know). It’s hardscape. As Jackson grew over the time I was there, several very large parking lots were created along the banks of the creek. They block soil from absorbing water and dramatically increase storm and melt runoff.
But the local “environmentalists”, who’re mostly pudding headed gits fresh out of prep school and living at daddy’s summer home for the season, demonstrate at town hall meetings whenever anyone draws attention to the issue and suggests dredging the creek.
I gave up and moved. The percentage of morons in the general population far outpaces the release of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Similar. Paris is in the Paris bassin, strangely.
Only half the population is officially stupid, but they really work at it!
While the beneficial increase in atmospheric CO2 has also resulted in some slight, mostly beneficial warming, anomalously occurring in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere( which has decreased the meridional temp gradient and weakened jet streams, tornadoes and severe storms slightly) the ability of the atmosphere to hold moisture changes exponentially with temperature.
Additional rains in some places have been beneficial but all things being equal(same meteorological set up), high end/extreme rain events are capable of dumping more water on a planet that is 1 deg. C warmer.
Whether a slightly warmer planet offers additional opportunities for the ideal set ups needed for extreme rain events is another question and any individual event can’t be tied to the beneficial warming. However, global warming amplifies the hydrologic cycle.
The last 4 decades have featured the best weather and climate on this planet since the Medeival Warm Period, 1,000 years ago(which was warmer than this in many places)………..with one exception. Amounts of rain in extreme events have increased.
You will also note that the increase in atmospheric moisture has led to less diurnal temperature swings(temperatures at night have increased more than temperatures during the day).
Same thing on the time of year(Winter most effected) and location(high latitudes).
So the coldest times of day(night), coldest times of year and coldest locations have warmed the most.
When we hear that the Tropics will become unbearable, if warming continues, it’s not true……..they have been effected the least. Warming the coldest places the most, by most objective standards would be considered a benefit……… but not in (mainstream) climate science today.
simple-touriste
June 11, 2016 at 1:54 am
“River dredging has been discouraged for over a decade by EU directives.”
“
Daniel Amblevert, maire de Sainte-Florence, dans le Libournais, avait fait curer un fossé en octobre 2011 sans avoir demandé l’autorisation afin d’éviter une inondation. Poursuivi par l’Office national de l’eau et des milieux aquatiques(Onema), il avait été relaxé par le tribunal correctionnel de Libourne dans un premier temps puis finalement condamné par la cour d’appel de Bordeaux en février 2015.
This is near to where I live. I spent a few happy days as a customer of Libourne Hospital some years ago.
The had cleared a ditch (fossé) in Oct 2011 with aim of avoiding flooding without asking for permission. Pursued by the National Office of Water and of the middle waters and rivers (ie not coastal) it had been (relaxé) typically means thrown out by the tribunal and finally (cant remember the word) thrown out by the Bordeaux main Court. So the bureaucrats were put down and the maire won.
The difference now is that the maires have lost to the EU many of those powers and will lose more in the future. the end of the EU is in sight , I think.
The sort of power they had can be shown by the maire of Libourne forcing the water company to charge more per m3 to swimming pool owners.
I think quitting the EU wouldn’t help as the native greens are just as annoying.
You don’t need to read French to look at the graph of floods since 1872 in Paris. It is self explanatory.
http://www.driee.ile-de-france.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/Panneaux_crue_cle0681fe.pdf
See page 1.
The 2016 flood is by no mean comparable to the 1910 one, and even less to the 1658 flood. It is more or less a decennial event. Dams built in the 1960’s and the 1970’s in the river Seine watershed may have helped. But, as they are also used to sustain the level of shallow waters in summer, they were probably kept almost full at this time of the year.
The whole claim is in-Seine.
The flooding issue didn’t arise from climate change, but instead climate science.
Michael Mann expanded the Seine’s watershed to include rainfall from New England – “The rain in Maine falls mainly in the Seine.”
https://climateaudit.org/2007/11/21/mann-et-al-2007-precipitation-teleconnections/
OUCH!